ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF THE AIRLINE INDUSTRY

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1 Net balance responses. =no change ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF THE AIRLINE INDUSTRY This new semi-annual report replaces the quarterly Airlines Financial Forecast, and takes a broader look at how the industry is adding value for its consumers, the wider economy and governments, as well as for its investors. Key points Consumers benefit from lower fares this year, more routes, and spend 1% of world GDP on air transport. Economic development big winner from the doubling of city pairs and halving of air transport costs in past 20 years. Governments have gained substantially from $121bn of taxation this year and 58.1 million supply chain jobs. Equity owners see a better year with a 5.4% average airline ROIC, but still earn $15 billion less than they should. Fuel use per RTK falls a further 1.9% y-o-y, saving 14 million tonnes of CO 2 emissions and $4 billion of fuel costs. Load factors forecast to exceed % for the first time & new aircraft deliveries represent a $1 billion investment. Jobs in the industry should reach 2.39 million, productivity is up 2.5% and GVA/employee exceeds $,000. Infrastructure use costs are rising, plus inefficiencies in Europe alone add $3.8bn to airline costs this year. N American region performing best with a 4.3% net post-tax profit margin. Africa worst at just 0.8%. Consumers Consumers are seeing a substantial increase in the value they derive from air transport this year. We expect 1% of world GDP to be spent on air transport in 2014, reaching almost $7 billion. Air travel is accelerating, with growth of 5.9% this year, the best since 2011, moving above the 5.5% trend of the past 20 years. This is being driven partly by the upturn of the economic cycle, with faster GDP and world trade growth. But consumers are also benefiting from cheaper travel, with the average one-way fare (before surcharges and tax) of $231 in 2014 being 3.5% lower than last year after adjusting for inflation. Business is also benefiting with the cost of shipping freight falling 4% this year. Air freight has been in the doldrums since 2010 but this year a slow cyclical upturn is evident. 20 IATA survey of airline CFOs and heads of cargo Passenger services growth expected in the next 12 months Cargo services growth expected in the next 12 months Spend on air transport, $billion % change over year 9.8% 4.6% 5.0% % global GDP 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% One-way fare, $/pax. (2014$) % change over year -3.9% -6.4% -3.5% Freight rate, $/kg (2014$) % change over year -6.5% -6.9% -4.0% Passenger departures, million 2,977 3,141 3,320 % change over year 4.6% 5.5% 5.7% RPKs, billion % change over year 5.3% 5.7% 5.9% FTKs, billion % change over year -1.0% 1.8% 3.1% World GDP growth, % 2.5% 2.4% 2.8% World trade growth, % 1.9% 2.7% 3.6% Note: RPK = Revenue Passenger Kilometers, FTK = Freight Tonne Kilometers, y-o-y = year on year change. GVA = Gross Valued Added (firm level GDP). Source: IATA, ICAO, EIU, Netherlands CPB, PaxIS, CargoIS. Airline CFOs and heads of cargo reported in April that they expect growth in passenger services over the next 12 months to be almost as strong as in 2010 and early Cargo is also expected to see its strongest growth since The upturn in economic activity driving these expectations is at risk, as the recent situation in Ukraine has shown. However, an easing in fiscal austerity policies, continued expansionary monetary policy and progress in deleveraging the private sector, are all coming together to boost growth, particularly in economies like the US mid-year report 1

2 Billion $ billion Number of unique city-pairs US$/RTK in 2014US$ Wider economy Economic development worldwide is getting a significant boost from air transport. This wider economic benefit is being generated by increasing connections between cities enabling the flow of goods, people, capital, technology and ideas - and reducing air transport costs. The number of unique city pair connections is estimated at more than 16,000, almost double the connectivity by air twenty years ago. The price of air transport to users continues to fall, after adjusting for inflation. Compared to twenty years ago real transport costs have more than halved. Unique city-pairs and real transport costs 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - Lower transport costs and improving connectivity have boosted trade flows, which themselves have resulted from globalizing supply chains and associated FDI Unique city pairs Compared to % 190% 195% Transport cost, US$/RTK (2014$) Compared to % -53% -54% Value of trade carried, $billion 6,357 6,490 6,2 % change over year 0.8% 2.1% 4.8% Value of tourism spend, $billion % change over year 7.9% 5.5% 5.2% Supply chain jobs, million 58.1 % change over year 1.9% Supply chain GVA, $ billion 2,434 % change over year 3.2% Note: RTK = Revenue Tonne Kilometers, GVA = Gross Value Added. The total number of routes or airport pairs is much higher because of multiple airports in some cities and connections are counted both ways. Source: IATA, ATAG, OAG, UNWTO, IHS Global Insight. Air transport is vital for world trade today, which is mostly in components rather than finished goods. We estimate that the value of international trade shipped by air this year reached $6.8 trillion. People travelling by air this year, tourists, spent an estimated $621 billion. Another impact on the wider economy comes through the influence increased airline activity has on jobs in the sector, in its supply chain, and the jobs generated as spending ripples through other sectors of the economy. These supply chain jobs around the world are estimated to have been 58.1 million in Government Governments have also gained substantially from the good performance of the airline industry. Airlines and their customers generated an estimated $121 billion in tax revenues this year. That s the equivalent of over % of the industry s GVA (Gross Value Added, which is the firm level equivalent to GDP), paid to governments in payroll, social security, corporate and product taxes. Note that charges for services are excluded. In addition the industry continues to create high value added jobs Tax revenues and global supply chain jobs supported Supply chain jobs supported Tax revenues Worldwide airline industry Tax revenues, $billion % change over year 6.6% 6.4% 6.7% % GVA.2%.3%.3% # of consumer protection regimes Note: GVA = Gross Value Added (firm level GDP) Source: IATA, Oxford Economics. But in many countries the value of aviation for governments, and the wider economy, is not well understood. The commercial activities of the industry remain highly constrained by bilateral and other regulations. Moreover, regulation is far from smart with unnecessarily high costs in many situations. Passenger rights/consumer protection laws are one example of wellintentioned but badly designed regulation can lead to disproportionate, inconsistent and badly targeted costs. There are now 59 regimes currently in force, based on information currently available. Sources for charts on this page: ATAG, Oxford Economics, IATA, ICAO, OAG mid-year report 2

3 Number of aircraft delivered ROIC as % invested capital % ATKs % of invested capital Capital providers Debt providers to the airline industry are well rewarded for their capital, usually invested with the security of a very mobile aircraft asset to back it. Net post-tax profits are positive, expected at $18 billion this year, so the industry is generating enough revenue to pay its suppliers bills and service its debt. But $18 billion is a margin on revenues of only 2.4%, so it wouldn t take much of a shock to make over $7 billion of debt interest costs look challenging. Equity owners are not rewarded adequately for risking their capital, except at a handful of airlines. Investors should expect to earn at least the normal return generated by assets of a similar risk profile, the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). The average return on invested capital (ROIC) in the airline industry has been improving, and this year is expected to reach 5.4%. However, that is more than 2% points lower than it should be in an industry that is highly competitive. In most industries it s higher. Such is the intensity of competition, and the challenges to doing business, that average returns are rarely as high as the industry s cost of capital. Equity investors are seeing their capital shrink. However, improved performance by the industry has significantly reduced the rate of investor value loss, on almost $700 billion of invested capital, to $15 billion this year. The trend improvement in returns is being driven by changes in structure and behavior. Breakeven load factors are usually on a painful upward trend as yields fall faster than cost reductions. They are falling this year; partly the impact of increasing ancillary revenues. On top of that, consolidation and more rational behavior have boosted load factors achieved. ROIC, % invested capital 3.7% 4.4% 5.4% ROIC-WACC, % invested capital -3.3% -2.8% -2.2% Investor value, $ billion EBIT margin, % revenue 1.8% 2.9% 4.2% Net post-tax profits, $billion % revenues 0.9% 1.5% 2.4% $ per passenger Note: ROIC = Return on Invested Capital, WACC = Weighted Average Cost of Capital, EBIT = Earnings Before Interest and Tax. Current year or forwardlooking industry financial assessments should not be taken as reflecting the performance of individual airlines, which can differ significantly. Source: IATA, McKinsey, ICAO Return on capital invested in airlines Cost of capital (WACC) Return on capital (ROIC) Breakeven and achieved load factor Achieved Breakeven Aircraft This year commercial airlines will take delivery of more than 1,0 new aircraft, representing an investment by the industry of over $1 billion. The trend improvement in average returns (ROIC) has given the industry the confidence to invest on this scale. Sustained high fuel costs have also made it economic to retire older aircraft at a higher rate. More than half of this year s deliveries will replace existing fleet, making a significant contribution to increasing fleet fuel efficiency, as described in the section below. Aircraft deliveries and airline industry ROIC Aircraft deliveries Airlines ROIC Source: IATA, ICAO, McKinsey, Ascend mid-year report 3

4 US$ per barrel Litres fuel used per RTK The fleet is expected to increase by almost 0 aircraft to end this year at 25,851 aircraft. The average size of aircraft in the fleet is continuing to rise slowly. So by the end of the year there will be some 3.5 million available seats. These seats are also being used more intensively, which is critical for profitability in such a capital intensive industry and also reduces environmental impact. Passenger load factors are expected to exceed a worldwide average of % for the first time this year. Aircraft are also being flown more intensively. The number of scheduled departures is expected to exceed more than 33 million this year. That s an average of more than aircraft departing during each minute of this year. Aircraft fleet 24,494 25,268 25,851 % change over year 1.0% 3.2% 2.3% Available seats, million % change over year 3.2% 5.3% 4.3% Average aircraft size, seats % change over year 2.2% 2.1% 1.9% Aircraft departures, million % change over year 3.7% 3.4% 3.7% ASKs, % change over year 4.0% 5.2% 5.5% Passenger load factor, % ASK 79.3% 79.7%.4% Freight load factor, % AFTK 47.5% 46.9% 46.9% Weight load factor, % ATK 66.0% 66.0% 66.2% Breakeven load factor, % ATK 64.8% 64.2% 63.4% Note: ASK = Available Seat Kilometer, AFTK = Available Freight Tonne Kilometer, ATK = Available Tonne Kilometer. Source: Ascend, ICAO, IATA. Fuel This year we estimate airlines will spend $212 billion on jet fuel, which represents almost 30% of their total operating costs. Jet fuel prices are stable, but there has never before been a 3 year period when energy costs have remained so high. The crack spread over Brent crude oil prices has been stable, and below historic averages, at 15%. However, profit from jet fuel is made not in the refining part of the value chain but upstream by the oil producers. We estimate that purchases of jet fuel by the airline industry this year will generate $24 billion of profit for the upstream part of the jet fuel supply chain Source: IATA, ICAO, Platts Fuel efficiency and the price of jet fuel Fuel use/ RTK Jet fuel price Fuel is such a large cost that it focuses intense effort in the industry to improve fuel efficiency, through replacing fleet with new aircraft, better operations and efforts to try to persuade governments to remove the airspace and airport inefficiencies that waste around 5% of fuel burn each year. The chart shows the impetus given to further efficiency improvements by continued high jet fuel prices Fuel spend, $billion % change over year 19.1% 1.3% 1.0% % operating costs 31.1% 30.5% 29.7% Fuel use, billion litres % change over year 1.4% 2.5% 3.2% Fuel efficiency, litre fuel/atk % change over year -1.5% -1.9% -1.7% CO 2, million tonnes % change over year 1.4% 2.5% 3.2% Fuel price, $/barrel % change over year 1.6% -3.9% -0.2% % spread over oil price 15.9% 14.4% 15.0% Upstream oil profits, $billion Note: ATK = Available Tonne Kilometer. Source: IATA, IEA, McKinsey We estimate that fuel efficiency, in terms of capacity use i.e. per ATK, will improve a further 1.7% in A further improvement in load factors is expected to produce an improvement in fuel efficiency, measured on a per RTK basis, of 1.9%. Continued fuel efficiency gains have partially decoupled CO 2 emissions from expanding air transport services. If fuel efficiency had remained at 2013 levels during the current year, fuel burn and CO 2 emissions would be 1.9% higher in That s a saving of 14 million tonnes of CO 2, as well as saving on fuel that would have cost more than $4 billion. The efficiency gains mean that although the industry provides an extra 5.2% of air transport services (RTK), CO 2 emissions will rise only by 3.2% to a total of 722 million tonnes mid-year report 4

5 Cost/ATK indexed to equal in 2000 Net balance =no change Labour Airlines are continuing to hire this year. Growth in employment is not quite as strong as in 2010 and the pace is starting to slow from 2013, but IATA s survey of airline CFOs in April showed a positive net balance saying they would increase hiring over the next 12 months. We estimate that total employment by airlines will reach 2.39 million this year, a gain of 2.6% over last year. Productivity has also been strong, with the average employee generating 478 ATKs in 2014, which is a 2.5% improvement over last year. That strong trend improvement in productivity is helping airlines to keep unit labour costs under control, an important objective given persistently high fuel costs. This year we estimate unit labour costs will be reduced by 0.7%. 70 IATA survey of airline CFOs Employment change expectations for next 12 months Labour costs, $ billion % change over year 3.1% 4.2% 4.2% Employment, million % change over year 1.5% 2.6% 2.6% Productivity, ATK/employee % change over year 1.7% 2.1% 2.5% Unit labour cost, $/ATK % change over year 0.2% -0.3% -0.7% GVA/employee, $ 93,318 96,649,5 % change over year 4.6% 3.6% 4.0% Note: ATK = Available Tonne Kilometer, GVA = Gross Value Added (firm level GDP). Source: IATA, ICAO, ATAG, Oxford Economics. The jobs being created are not just productive for their airline employers; they are also highly productive for the economies in which they are employed. We estimate that the direct GVA for national economies, generated by the average airline employee, will rise 4% this year to over $,000 a year, which is well above the economy-wide average Infrastructure Infrastructure partners play an important role in the service airlines provide to their customers, affecting the experience, the timeliness of the journey, and its cost. Unit cost of infrastructure and airline non-fuel expenses Unit cost of infrastructure use Airline non-fuel unit cost Source: ACI (aeronautical revenues), ICAO (en-route charges, ATK), IATA. European airspace inefficiency cost Airline costs, $ million 3,970 3,824 3,825 Passenger time loss, $ million 8,643 7,700 7,674 Source: IATA, Eurocontrol PRC s European ANS Performance Review. The direct cost paid for using infrastructure has increasingly been transferred to the passenger. Overall the cost of using airport and ANSP infrastructure has risen steeply over the past decade, partly because competitive pressures are very weak in this part of the supply chain. This contrasts with the relatively limited rise in other nonfuel airline costs. Moreover, inefficiencies causing delay and inefficient routings add to the direct cost. We estimate that the delays caused by inefficient airspace management in Europe alone will cost the industry $3.8 billion this year, as well as generating unnecessary CO 2 emissions. The time passengers waste in these delays is a consumer cost worth an estimated $7.7 billion mid-year report 5

6 Regions The strongest financial performance is being delivered by airlines in North America. Net post-tax profits are the highest at $9.2 billion this year. That represents a net profit of $11.09 per enplaned passenger, which is a marked improvement from just 2 years earlier. Net margins of 4.3% are still low, but are the best since the late 1990s. This improvement has been driven by consolidation, helping to raise load factors (passenger + cargo) to 64% this year, and ancillaries, helping offset weak fares, pushing breakeven load factors down to %. Breakeven load factors are highest in Europe, caused by a combination of low yields due to the highly competitive open aviation area, and high regulatory costs. As a result, and despite the industry in the region achieving the second highest load factors, financial performance has been poor. Net profits of $2.8 billion this year represent only $3.23 per passenger and a margin of 1.3%. Airlines in Asia-Pacific are doing little better than those in Europe. Profit per passenger is a little lower at $2.98 but moderately stronger cargo markets, particularly important in this manufacturing region, helps boost net margins moderately to 1.6% and net profits to $3.2 billion. Middle East airlines have one of the lowest breakeven load factors. Average yields are low but unit costs are even lower, partly driven by the strength of capacity growth; 13% this year. Post-tax profits are expected to grow to $1.6 billion this year, representing a profit of $8.98 per passenger and a net margin of 2.6%. Latin American airlines have faced a mixed environment, with weak home markets hampering performance, but a degree of consolidation and some long-haul success is boosting net profit above $1 billion this year, which is $4.21 per passenger and a margin of 3%. Africa is the weakest region, as in the past 2 years. Profits are barely positive, and represent just $1.64 per passenger. Breakeven load factors are relatively low, as yields are a little higher than average but also costs are lower. However, few airlines in the region are able to achieve adequate load factors, which are the lowest by almost 5% points. Performance is improving, but slowly. Africa Net post-tax profit, $billion Per passenger, $ % revenue -0.8% -0.8% 0.8% RPK growth, % 7.5% 5.1% 5.8% ASK growth, % 6.4% 5.0% 6.5% Load factor, % ATK 55.9% 55.7% 55.3% Breakeven load factor, % ATK 56.1% 56.0% 54.8% Asia-Pacific Net post-tax profit, $billion Per passenger, $ % revenue 1.5% 1.1% 1.6% RPK growth, % 6.1% 7.2% 7.4% ASK growth, % 5.4% 7.1% 7.0% Load factor, % ATK 67.3% 67.1% 67.3% Breakeven load factor, % ATK 66.0% 65.2% 64.2% Middle East Net post-tax profit, $billion Per passenger, $ % revenue 2.1% 1.9% 2.6% RPK growth, % 14.7% 11.9% 13.0% ASK growth, % 12.4% 11.4% 13.0% Load factor, % ATK.6%.2%.2% Breakeven load factor, % ATK 58.8% 58.7% 58.2% Latin America Net post-tax profit, $billion Per passenger, $ % revenue -0.6% 0.6% 3.0% RPK growth, % 9.5% 6.5% 6.0% ASK growth, % 7.6% 4.6% 6.5% Load factor, % ATK 59.7% 61.2% 61.0% Breakeven load factor, % ATK 58.8% 59.8% 58.5% North America Net post-tax profit, $billion Per passenger, $ % revenue 1.1% 3.3% 4.3% RPK growth, % 1.0% 2.2% 2.7% ASK growth, % 0.4% 1.6% 2.0% Load factor, % ATK 64.0% 64.0% 64.3% Breakeven load factor, % ATK 61.8%.6%.0% Europe Net post-tax profit, $billion Per passenger, $ % revenue 0.2% 0.2% 1.3% RPK growth, % 4.5% 4.0% 4.7% ASK growth, % 2.8% 2.5% 4.5% Load factor, % ATK 66.5% 66.9% 67.0% Breakeven load factor, % ATK 66.0% 66.4% 65.8% Note: RPK = Revenue Passenger Kilometer, ASK = Available Seat Kilometers, ATK = Available Tonne Kilometers. Current year or forward-looking industry financial assessments should not be taken as reflecting the performance of individual airlines, which can differ significantly. Source: ICAO, IATA. 1 st June 2014 v mid-year report 6

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