Clothing Consumption By. On Fibre Manufacturer Supply Chains. Arvind Singhal Chairman, Technopak Advisors. 6 th Nov, 2012

Transcription

1 Global ChangesIn Clothing Consumption By 2020, And Their Impact On Fibre Manufacturer Supply Chains Arvind Singhal Chairman, Technopak Advisors 6 th Nov, 2012

2 Presentation Flow 2 Key trends impacting global apparel market Impact on fiber manufacturer supply chain Implications for textile and apparel producers ITMF Hanoi Conference, Nov. 4-6, th General Session: Arvind Singhal page 1

3 Key Trends Impacting Global Apparel Market ITMF Hanoi Conference, Nov. 4-6, th General Session: Arvind Singhal page 2

4 1: Subdued Medium Term Economic Outlook For MajorConsuming Economies 4 % GDP Growth 12% 7% 5% GDP Go Growth China India 2% 3% 8% US UK Japan Germany GDP growth rate of all major consuming economies, except China and India, is expected to be less than 5% Source: IMF ITMF Hanoi Conference, Nov. 4-6, th General Session: Arvind Singhal page 3

5 2: Steadily Reducing Share Of Apparel & Footwear InHousehold Consumption InUSAnd EU 5 8.1% 5.5% 45% 4.5% 3.5% 68% 6.8% 6.0% 6.2% 5.8% 5.2% 5.3% 5.6% 4.3% US Germany France UK Source: US Census, Eurostat, Technopak Analysis ITMF Hanoi Conference, Nov. 4-6, th General Session: Arvind Singhal page 4

6 3: Higher (Per Capita) Apparel Consumption Growth In Developing Countries 6 US$ per capita Per capita apparel consumption US EU China India Gap in per capita consumption From 2010 to 2015, the per capita apparel consumption will increase by 75% in China & 50% in India; trend is likely to continue through 2020 and beyond Source: US Census Bureau, EU CBI, NBS China, Technopak Analysis ITMF Hanoi Conference, Nov. 4-6, th General Session: Arvind Singhal page 5

7 Developing Countries To Drive Growth In Apparel Consumption 7 Global apparel market expected to ; China, India, Brazil are expected to grow at twice the global rate US$ bn Global Apparel Market Size 1170 % share of 20% market % 55% 68% % 44% Brazil China India Japan EU US CAGR : Combined CAGR 8% 2% World 4% Source: US Census Bureau, EU CBI, NBS China, Technopak Analysis ITMF Hanoi Conference, Nov. 4-6, th General Session: Arvind Singhal page 6

8 Forcing Major US & EU Brands & Retailers To Explore International Even MoreAggressively 8 60% 57% 50% Overall Sales Growth in % 30% International Sales Growth in % 20% 10% 0% 20% 20% 16% 17% 14% 7% 9% 3% American Apparel Guess Ralph Lauren Urban Outfitters A & F Source: Company Reports, Secondary Research ITMF Hanoi Conference, Nov. 4-6, th General Session: Arvind Singhal page 7

9 4: Rapid Rise Of E Sales 9 Growth in online sales of selected companies Polo Ralph Lauren 23% 29% Nordstrom 22% 30% GAP 15% 20% American Eagle Outfitters 8% 15% 3 Yr CAGR Aeropostale A&F 14% 22% 28% YoY Growth in % Source: Company Reports, Secondary Research ITMF Hanoi Conference, Nov. 4-6, th General Session: Arvind Singhal page 8

10 Impact On Fibre Manufacturer Supply Chains ITMF Hanoi Conference, Nov. 4-6, th General Session: Arvind Singhal page 9

11 1: Supply Chains Getting More Complex 11 Re configuration Further pressure on shortened delivery time Increasing # of SKU s and lower order quantities per SKU Past Current Future consumer retailer consumer retailer consumer retailer wholesaler manufacturer wholesaler manufacturer wholesaler manufacturer ITMF Hanoi Conference, Nov. 4-6, th General Session: Arvind Singhal page 10

12 2: Heightened Need For More Collaboration 12 E commerce growth will necessitate requirement of collaboration between manufacturers, retailers and service providers Data sharing cturing Manufac Common Logistics Collaborative supply chain Common warehouse Regional Consolidation consumers retail Data sharing ITMF Hanoi Conference, Nov. 4-6, th General Session: Arvind Singhal page 11

13 3: Changing Sourcing Patterns... More Challenges For Manufacturers 13 Sourcing teams are now working on more number of seasons. Instead of two or four seasons, fashion brands and retailers have started working on 12 buying seasons a year Leadtimeshavebeenfurthersqueezedtohavebettercontrol on raw material ilcost and improve responsiveness to the changing fashion needs No longer the manufacturers have the luxury of receiving order of greige fabric / blocking capacity in anticipation of future orders ITMF Hanoi Conference, Nov. 4-6, th General Session: Arvind Singhal page 12

14 4: Emergence Of New Supply Chains To Service Different Markets 14 basic products Closer to market manufacturing location for fashion products fashion products Low cost manufacturing location for basic products US and EU Markets High value, high fashion More automation; regional and global supply chains Developing Markets More basic products Regional and local supply chains ITMF Hanoi Conference, Nov. 4-6, th General Session: Arvind Singhal page 13

15 More Localized Supply Chains For China & India 15 China s & India s domestic market Leading to high localization of likely to overtake major developed supply chain for these 2 countries country markets by 2020 US$ bn Apparel market size China US Localized supply chain Local consumption US$ bn India UK Local production ITMF Hanoi Conference, Nov. 4-6, th General Session: Arvind Singhal page 14

16 5: Rising Costs Adding To More Pressure On Producers And Retailers 16 Rising Costs Raw materials Wages Energy Logistics Exchange risk Labour and Energy Cost Inflation from Yr CAGR Labour Cost Energy Cost China 20% 15% Bangladesh 15% 20% India 12% 5% Vietnam 11% 9% 13.0% Increase in Global Production Cost of Woven Fabric, CAGR ( ) ** 15.9% 46% 4.6% 4.0% 2.2% 10.9% 8.2% *Yarn quality assumed:30s 100% cotton, combed **Fabric quality assumed:30s 100% cotton fabric, 190 gsm Waste Labour Power Auxiliary Capital Raw Material Total Source: ITMF, Technopak Analysis ITMF Hanoi Conference, Nov. 4-6, th General Session: Arvind Singhal page 15

17 Implications For Textile & Apparel Producers ITMF Hanoi Conference, Nov. 4-6, th General Session: Arvind Singhal page 16

18 1: Adaptive Manufacturing Approach 18 More adaptive manufacturing approach Multi locationmanufacturing (perhaps separate manufacturing bases for Basics and Fashion) Making value added products in house & outsourcing basics Even higher focus on improving business efficiency ITMF Hanoi Conference, Nov. 4-6, th General Session: Arvind Singhal page 17

19 2: More Deployment Of Technology 19 More technology deployment across the entire value chain, covering: Consumer demand and fashion trend tracking (advanced analytics and application of Big Data processing tools) Product development and sampling Production (more automation) Warehousing Shipping ITMF Hanoi Conference, Nov. 4-6, th General Session: Arvind Singhal page 18

20 3: Re look At Strategy For China, India, & Brazil s Local Markets 20 Develop localized / regional supply chains through strategic alliances, joint ventures, acquisitions, and / or wholly owned manufacturing and marketing subsidiaries for each of China, India, and Brazil China : China, Vietnam, select other SE Ai Asian countries ti India : India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Vietnam, select other SE Asian countries Brazil : Brazil, select othersouthamerican countries ITMF Hanoi Conference, Nov. 4-6, th General Session: Arvind Singhal page 19

21 Thank You! ITMF Hanoi Conference, Nov. 4-6, th General Session: Arvind Singhal page 20

22 For further dialogue, please contact : Arvind Singhal Chairman, Technopak Advisors (India) T : (+91) E : arvind.singhal@technopak.com Web : ITMF Hanoi Conference, Nov. 4-6, th General Session: Arvind Singhal page 21