Top 50 Technologies TechVision 2020 Program. Beatrice Shepherd Vice President Frost & Sullivan CEE & Russia Moscow, 2012

Transcription

1 Top 50 Technologies TechVision 2020 Program Beatrice Shepherd Vice President Frost & Sullivan CEE & Russia Moscow, 2012

2 Introduction to Technology Vision 2020 by Frost & Sullivan This TechVision 2020 report is the flagship research from Technical Insights (TI), the Technology Research and Consulting division of Frost & Sullivan. It represents a collection of the most exciting technologies that will shape our World in the next couple of years. This body of work is a culmination of thousands of hours of relentless effort put in by over 50 global TI analysts based in six continents. The selected technologies are spread across nine Technology Clusters which represent the bulk of R&D and innovation activity today. The structure of the report is based on these nine Technology Clusters. The analyst team collected intelligence on several emerging and disruptive technologies and innovations from around the globe. Numerous interviews were conducted with innovators and developers. The respondents were spread across public and private companies, universities, research institutions, and R&D oriented government agencies. Next, each technology was rated and compared across many parameters such as global R&D foot print, Year of Impact, global IP patenting activity, private and government funding, current and emerging applications, current and potential adoption rate, etc. The report provides all these details for each of the selected technologies. Finally, the list was condensed to the Top 50 technologies which we believe have the maximum potential for wide-scale launch and mass commercialization. TechVision 2020 is an annual research initiative of Technical Insights. Its primary objective is to identify key technologies that will impact our lives in this decade. Work has already started on the 2012 report. In the meantime, enjoy our selection of technologies for 2011!

3 Top 50 Technology Web

4 Table of Contents 1. Clean & Green Technology Cluster..9 Green Vehicles.10 Smart Grid 16 Thin Film Photovoltaic nd Generation Biofuels.29 Advanced Energy Storage.36 Green Buildings...43 Renewable Chemicals Microelectronics Technology Cluster 56 Flexible Electronics.57 Next Generation Displays..65 Haptics and Touch Technologies..73 3D Integration..81 LED Lighting Technologies 88 Wireless Power Transmission...95 Emerging Data Storage Technologies...103

5 Table of Contents (Contd ) 3. Medical Devices & Imaging Technology Cluster Combination Devices. 113 Medical Robotics.119 Smart Pills 126 Hybrid Imaging Technologies 132 Digital Pathology. 138 Optical Imaging Technologies Information & Communication Technology Cluster Virtualization 152 Semantic Web.159 Long-Term Evolution Cloud Computing 174 Fabric Computing 181

6 Table of Contents (Contd ) 5. Materials & Coatings Technology Cluster Nanocatalysts Smart Textiles..193 Algae Based Ingredients..198 Compostable Packaging 203 Lightweight Composites.208 Enzyme Technology Advanced Filtration.218 Breathable Antibacterial Coatings 223 Superhydrophobic Coatings Life Sciences & Biotechnology Cluster Adult Stem Cells.234 Genome Sequencing.240 3D Cell Culture Systems Biosensing 252 Nanofluidics and BioNEMs 260

7 Table of Contents (Contd ) 7. Conventional Energy & Infrastructure Technology Cluster265 Clean Coal 266 Enhanced Oil Recovery. 272 Advanced Hydrocracking Sensors & Automation Technology Cluster 282 Energy Harvesting..283 Smart Sensors.292 Wireless Sensor Networks.300 CBRN Detection Technologies Advanced Manufacturing Technology Cluster315 Digital Manufacturing Advanced Lasers for Manufacturing.324 Intelligent Robots. 331 Micro- & Nano-manufacturing Glossary..343

8 Top 10 High tech to Invest

9 Nanomaterials: Technology Snapshot Nanocatalysts utilize nanomaterials for homogenous and heterogeneous catalytic reactions. They increase the functionality and specificity of the catalytic reactions, while reducing the reaction time. Nanocatalysts can be particulate, porous, crystalline or supra molecular in nature. They are used in applications pertaining to alternative energy, pharmaceuticals, oil and gas to name a few. Nanocatalysts exhibit better performance than conventional catalysts. Their nanoscale nature results in the greater availability of catalyst, leading to increased catalytic performance and utilization of raw materials, faster reaction time, and improved quality of the reactions. Nanocatalysts are ecologically benign and are consider green when compared to conventional catalysts. You ll see nanocatalysts making an impact this year; they will have a significant impact in the Alternate Energy and Oil and Gas sectors for fuel conversion reactions and biofuel synthesis. The nanocatalysts has applications in drug delivery, gene therapy and biosensors in the pharmaceutical industry. They can be used in the manufacture of cosmetics, agrochemicals, plastics and industrial chemicals.

10 Nanomaterials: Technology Development and Adoption Footprint North America DOE and NSF funding has led to the development and adoption of nanocatalysts in the manufacture of biofuels, fine chemicals and water purification methods. Industrial funding in the pharmaceutical and personal care sector has enabled the use of nanocatalysts for drug delivery, gene therapy, biosensors and cosmetics. Europe Stringent government regulations and funding from DEFRA has driven the applications of nanocatalysts for developing biofuels and use iin waste water treatment. Automobile companies are funding the research and development of nanocatalysts for fuel cells and portable power units Middle East Industries and universities fund the development of nanocatalysts in crude oil desulfurization, catalytic cracking and reforming of petroleum; this has led to the adoption of nanocatalysts in the oil and gas sector. China / Japan / Taiwan T h e c o u n t r i e s a r e concentrating on developing nanocatalysts for chemical industry. India Research is still in developmental stages Industrial collaborations have resulted in the use of nanocatalysts for the manufacture of fine chemicals Australia Australia is working on the use of nanocatalysts for fuel cells and auto catalysts

11 Smart Textiles: Technology Snapshot Technology Adoption 5 0 Technology Maturity 5 Smart textiles are defined as textiles capable of superior performance thought the aid of electronics and superior engineered materials. In the most recent Olympics, we witnessed several new world records in swimming, partly due to technologically enhanced swimsuits. Smart textiles as a market has seen exponential growth over the past few years. Apart from being applicable for sports, smart textiles are used in healthcare protective gear and military applications Currently, the smart textiles market is fragmented as the technology caters to high end and niche applications. The technology for smart textiles is expected to be widely adopted in some niche applications such as firefighting and sports in the next two to three years provided the issues related to cost and ease of manufacturing in large scale are overcome. Smart textiles have the potential to become fashionable yet life saving.

12 Smart Textiles: Funding Trends Application Sectors Military Healthcare Sports Wear Specialty Applications Sportswear 19% Speciality Applications 14% Healthcare 29% Military 38 % The largest area of application is military apparel. This is because any advantage in a combat field can never be underestimated. In this regard, smart textiles have the ability to provide superior camouflage functionality. This benefit has driven increased government funding for smart textiles in the recent years. The next most significant area of research focus is Healthcare. This is driven by high costs of specialist healthcare personnel. Sportswear is also a key area of research focus as the textiles used in sports applications provide some superior characteristics when compared to normal wear. For example, swimwear can show superior hydrophobic properties.

13 Advanced Batteries and Energy Storage Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Micro UAV Solider Modernization Human Energy Harvesting

14 Advanced Batteries and Energy Storage: Funding Trends Public spending on transportation-related energy storage, Discounting China from the top spenders of public spending (due to the unavailability of data), the US, Japan, Germany and France then emerge as the Top 4 spenders with regards to energy storage for transportation applications, due to the countries association with automotive manufacturing. Interestingly, spending on fuel cell RD&D actually outpaced that of batteries.

15 Advanced Batteries and Energy Storage: Technology Landscape Basic R&D Uninterruptable Power Supply Power Quality Transmission & Distribution Grid Support Load Shifting and Leveling Bulk Power & Energy Management Demonstration- Scale Commercial Mature 1 kw 100 kw 1 MW 100 MW 1 GW System Power Ratings, Module Size

16 Thin film PV Key Insight: Solar accounted for 27% (119 deals in 2010) of the overall number of VC and Private Equity investments in the Renewable Energy Sector United States The US Department of Energy (DOE) supported the Solar Energy Technologies Program (SETP) with $225 million in 2010 and $117 million from the Recovery Act. In 2010, the DOE funded the third and final year of more than 20 Next Generation program projects in 11 different areas. A total of $8 million will be set aside for the development of advanced thin films. Germany In 2010, the Federal Environment Ministry (BMU) provided EUR 39.1 million to support R&D projects on PV, spread out over 152 projects. In the area of thin film, focus was on silicon and CIS technologies. In addition, Germany has several active companies in thin film PV, including silicon thin film (10 companies, 420 MW production capacity), CIS (11 companies, 310 MW) and CdTe (3 companies, 260 MW) China Installation of PV in China is largely due to the desire to improve rural infrastructure. Although China has emerged to become the largest producer of PV modules in the world, the country is still relatively weak in thin film R&D. Most thin film R&D is undertaken by the academic sector, where certain R&D institutions have developed thin film PV with higher efficiencies, including Nankai University (CIGS, 14.3%), and Sichuan University (CdTe, 13.4%). France A major R&D project in France is POLYSIL, which started in December Focusing on the development of thin film PV, the project aims to give France a leading edge in thin film PV technology. Another key stakeholder is IRDEP, a R&D institution that is focusing on reducing production costs of PV modules, improved PV conversion efficiencies and processes for thin film deposition.

17 Thin Film PV: Funding Trends Many countries are still investing a large percentage of their public R&D spending on R&D and deployment of solar technologies. Top national spenders were USA, Japan, Korea, France and Australia. Data on public spending in China was not available. However, based on China s interest on clean energy R&D, it is expected that public spending would be higher, or at least equivalent to that of USA.

18 Renewable Chemicals: Technology Snapshot Renewable chemicals refers to the development of environmentally friendly, sustainable chemicals that can be used to replace traditional petrochemicals. The main feedstock for renewable chemicals are usually obtained from sugar, starch and vegetable oil feedstock. Biomass can also be used as a feedstock, but requires pretreatment processing to convert it to simple sugars. The simplest method to produce renewable chemicals is by using fermentation. Renewable chemicals are considered a more environment-friendly alternative to chemicals derived from fossil fuels. Increased adoption of renewable chemicals will lead to less carbon emissions, as well as reduced environmental impact. The production of renewable chemicals is also driven by the volatility of oil prices, as bulk chemical producers are attempting to widen their product portfolio so as to lessen their risk towards volatile oil prices.

19 Advanced Manufacturing: Technology Snapshot Digital Manufacturing technology refers to the use of simulation tools and product lifecycle management software, and ICT solutions to achieve higher productivity in manufacturing, thereby increasing competitiveness. The removal of global trade barriers, and the creation of globally distributed manufacturing necessitates the transition to a digital manufacturing enterprise. Also, called e-manufacturing technologies in this domain facilitate the link between the top floor and shop floor wherein information from plant automation and control systems can be fed to higher level information layers of the enterprise for decision making and strategy management. There is a dire need to achieve a competitive edge with low cost overseas manufacturing locations, and this applies to small and medium scale enterprises (SMEs) as well. This can be achieved by utilizing digital manufacturing to achieve cost economics, reducing time to market of products, improving responsiveness to customers, and acquiring the ability for mass customization. Companies can keep pace with competition for developing futuristic products if product lifecycle management (PLM) solutions are adopted, and simulation tools are effectively used for product development and process optimization. Usage of digital manufacturing for collaborative new product design, agile manufacturing, and supply chain integration can be seen in competitive markets. However, there is tremendous untapped potential across several manufacturing streams, which include small and medium scale enterprises.

20 Advanced Manufacturing: Technology Development and Adoption Footprint

21 3D Integration System-In- Package (SiP) 3D Integration Approaches System-On- Chip (SoC) Illustrations 3D Integrated Circuit (IC) Critical markers for sector growth The Road Ahead

22 Flexible Electronics Technology Potential Markets with connected needs Consumer Electronics Medical Devices Military Supply Chain Food Packaging Current Developments/Products Market Potential Global CAGR ( ) >19% North America 28% Europe 32% APAC 36% ROW 4%

23 Flexible Electronics: Patent Landscape

24 Semantic Web: Technology Snapshot Technology Adoption 5 0 Technology Maturity 5 Semantic Web Technology is a collation of different methods and technologies that serve as an extension to the web by appending new data and meta data to the existing content. This technology empowers the computer to process and understand the data available on the web, extrapolate useful information for the user It incorporates markup languages, frameworks, querying tools such as Web Ontology Language (OWL) and Resource Description Framework (RDF) Semantic Web adds meaning and structure to the content on the web. It assists the computer to understand relationships between different data sources to make logical connections and decisions Equips the software agent to identify, analyze, evaluate and combine the information across multiple resources. Performs sophisticated tasks for end users, automates different operations with minimal human intervention Semantic web has become the buzz word of the internet since The semantic web space has witnessed the rise of start ups and consumer based product offerings. With enterprise inclination towards intuitive analytics continuing to increase, 2012 and 2013 could be rightly cited as the years of major impact for semantic technologies Generation of critical insights from customer experience data offers significant business potential across verticals

25 Long Term Evolution:Technology Snapshot Technology Adoption 5 0 Technology Maturity 5 Long Term Evolution (LTE) is a fourth generation (4G) cellular network technology that promises to offer enhanced data rates and capacity for mobile broadband connectivity The technology has garnered the attention of several large carrier network operators- many operators have abandoned WiMAX, a competing 4G technology, in favour of LTE. Cellular network operators across the globe have been struggling to support the surging data traffic on their networks. With the advent and widespread adoption of powerful smartphones, mobile data traffic has risen drastically LTE, owing to its ability to facilitate improved data rates and capacity, is cited as a solution for cellular network capacity crunch The time division duplex (TDD) version of LTE is expected to be widely deployed as the availability of unpaired spectrum can be leveraged for LTE TDD deployments. Major deployments are expected in India in 2011, followed by China and Japan in 2012

26 Genome Sequencing: Technology Snapshot Technology Adoption 5 0 Technology Maturity 5 Technology Overview Why is it important? Year of Impact Following the complete sequencing of the human genome and the availability of the annotated human genome sequence online, DNA analysis has become a routine procedure. Emergence of novel technologies for global genomic analysis (high throughput sequencing, transcript profiling, SNP genotyping), haplotype mapping, and bioinformatics has revolutionized the information available about the human genome. Genomics provides structural and organizational information and aims to improve the ability to predict the manner in which genetic variation affects susceptibility to disease, response to medical treatments, and how other important phenotypes, will have a transformative effect on health care. Reductions in sequencing costs and improvements in the speed at which sequences can be generated are ushering the era for personal genomics. Automated procedures are commercialized to prepare DNA for sequencing and analysis broadly for health assessment, therapeutic decisions, and predicting phenotypes of interest. Entire human genome can now be sequenced for a retail cost of $20,000 and NHGRI part of the U.S. National Institute of Health has set a target to be able to sequence a humansized genome for US $1,000 by 2014