SUICIDE STATISTICS REPORT 2014: Including data for March 2014 Author: Elizabeth Scowcroft

Transcription

1 SUICIDE STATISTICS REPORT 2014: Including data for March 2014 Author: Elizabeth Scowcroft

2 CONTENTS SAMARITANS TAKING THE LEAD TO REDUCE SUICIDE... 4 Data sources UK... 5 Data sources ROI... 5 Suicide definitions... 5 Note on the availability of suicide data... 5 UK SUICIDE DEFINITION... 6 Box 1. UK Definition of Suicide... 6 UK SUICIDE Table 1: Number of suicides in UK, Graph 1: Suicide rates per 100,000* in UK, Graph 2: Suicide rates in UK by age group, Graph 3: Suicide rates in England by age group, Graph 4: Suicide rates in Wales by age group, Graph 5: Suicide rates in Scotland by age group, 2012* Graph 6: Suicide rates in Northern Ireland by age group, UK SUICIDE TRENDS OVER TIME Graph 7: Suicide rate per 100,000 in the UK Graph 8: Suicide rate per 100,000 in England Graph 9: Suicide rate per 100,000 in Wales Graph 10: Suicide rate per 100,000 in Scotland * Graph 11: Suicide rate per 100,000 in Northern Ireland REPUBLIC OF IRELAND SUICIDE Table 2: Number of suicides in ROI, Graph 12: Suicide Rates per 100,000 in ROI, REPUBLIC OF IRELAND SUICIDE BY AGE GROUP

3 Graph 13: Suicide rates in ROI by age group Graph 14: Suicide rate per 100,000 in ROI CHALLENGES WITH SUICIDE STATISTICS The under-reporting of suicide: The reliability and validity of suicide statistics: Difficulties comparing suicide statistics: APPENDIX 1: of deaths by suicide* in the UK Table 3. UK suicide rates for all persons, males and females and by age group, Table 4. England suicide rates for all persons, males and females and by age group, Table 5. Wales suicide rates for all persons, males and females and by age group, Table 6. Scotland suicide rates for all persons, males and females and by age group, Table 7. Northern Ireland suicide rates for all persons, males and females and by age group, APPENDIX 2: Number of deaths by suicide* in the UK Table 8. UK suicide numbers for all persons, males and females and by age group, Table 9. England suicide numbers for all persons, males and females and by age group, Table 10. Wales suicide numbers for all persons, males and females and by age group, Table 11. Scotland suicide numbers for all persons, males and females and by age group, Table 12. Northern Ireland suicide numbers for all persons, males and females and by age group, APPENDIX 3: of deaths by suicide* in ROI Table 13. Republic of Ireland suicide rates for all persons, males and females and by age group, APPENDIX 4: Number of deaths by suicide* in ROI Table 14. Republic of Ireland suicide numbers for all persons, males and females and by age group,

4 SAMARITANS TAKING THE LEAD TO REDUCE SUICIDE Suicide remains a major public health issue and is a devastating event for families and communities. Samaritans Strategy outlines our commitment to take the lead to reduce suicide. This will be achieved through the delivery of our helpline services, reaching out to high risk groups in communities, working with other organisations and services, and influencing public policy. Samaritans believes that a reduction in suicide is not only possible but that it is an urgent and important priority which does not receive enough attention Samaritans Strategy In 2012, 21% of contacts with Samaritans (over 600,000) involved individuals expressing suicidal feelings. Achieving a reduction in suicide involves reaching more people who may be at risk of taking their own lives; which can only be achieved by understanding which groups of individuals are particularly at risk of suicidal thoughts and behaviours. This document provides a description of the suicide rates within the UK and the Republic of Ireland (ROI), using data which is available from the official statistics bodies; it does not provide explanations for the trends in suicide rates within or between nations. The collation of suicide statistics for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and ROI is not routinely provided by any other organisation. There are significant challenges in collating the suicide statistics from across the UK and ROI. There are variations in the calculation methods of suicide rates between the national statistical agencies and differences in the data. This leads to challenges in the collation and analysis of suicide statistics and comparisons across countries. In order to understand and prevent suicide it is very important that suicide data is as accurate and comprehensive as possible. This document also includes some comment on these issues, suicide statistics and the availability of data. 4

5 Data sources UK The UK data in this document has been provided by the official statistical bodies: Office for National Statistics (ONS; overall UK data, England and Wales), the National Records of Scotland (NRS; Scotland, previously the General Register Office for Scotland; data compiled by ScotPHO), and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA; Northern Ireland). The most recent data available and discussed in this document is from 2012 (data published in 2013 and 2014). All suicide rates shown have been calculated by the respective statistical agencies named above. Rates provided by the ONS for the UK, England and Wales, and by NRS for Scotland are age standardised to the European Standard Population for overall male, female and person rates; rates broken down by age group are crude rates. All rates provided by NISRA are crude rates. Based on revised population estimates, ONS provided adjusted rates per 100,000 in their 2014 statistical bulletin. Therefore some historical data will differ from previous editions of this document. Data sources ROI Suicide statistics for ROI are provided by the Central Statistics Office for Ireland (CSO) and are provided in this document separately to the UK data. This is because there are fundamental differences between the ROI and the UK in the statistical categories used to make up the suicide figures, which means the statistics are not comparable. All rates provided by CSO are crude rates. Suicide definitions The UK definition of suicide in statistical terms can be found in Box 1 on page 6. This is in line with guidance from the ONS as to how a death is classified as suicide; NRS and NISRA also use this definition. This definition combines deaths where the underlying cause was of intentional self-harm (ICD10: X60-X84) and events of undetermined intent (ICD10: Y10-Y34). The statistics for ROI, however, do not include deaths classified as undetermined intent as suicides and suicide numbers and rates include only deaths classified under ICD- 10 codes X60-X84 (see Box 1). It would therefore be misleading to consider these statistics alongside those for the UK, as this may imply falsely that they are comparable. The ONS, NISRA and NRS figures all relate to deaths registered (but not necessarily occurring) in a given year. Data for suicides in the ROI provided by the CSO for 2012 relate to the number of deaths registered in that year, but data for previous years reflect deaths occurring in a calendar year; provisional data is published initially and subsequently updated to reflect the number of deaths that occur in a given year. Note on the availability of suicide data The data available on suicide from the official statistical bodies is limited. Additional information is sometimes available on request, but other information, such as ethnicity, is not included in the recording of a suicide. Information on socio-economic status is not routinely reported on in statistical bulletins. Some government public health or suicide prevention agencies in the different nations undertake more in-depth analysis of suicide statistics, and may include data from other sources. This is done differently in each country. Data are also inconsistent: the statistical agencies provide different demographic descriptors, e.g. age bands differ. 5

6 UK SUICIDE DEFINITION In 2011 the ONS (UK, England and Wales), NRS (Scotland) and NISRA (Northern Ireland) adopted a change in the classification of deaths in line with the World Health Organisation (WHO) new coding rules. The change results in some deaths previously coded under 'mental and behavioural disorders' now being classed as 'self-poisoning of undetermined intent' and therefore included in the suicide figures 1. Theoretically, this could mean that more deaths could be coded with an underlying cause of event of undetermined intent, which is included in the national definition of suicide (Box 1). This change does not affect Republic of Ireland data since their definition of suicide does not include deaths where the underlying cause is of undetermined intent. 1 Explanation taken from ScotPHO website, updated September 2013; ONS only produce data using the new coding rules since the change (data for 2011 and 2012). They note that caution should be used when comparing data with old and new coding as they are not directly comparable. Preliminary analyses of the data suggest no significant change as a result of the coding changes; however this finding should still be treated with caution. Box 1. UK Definition of Suicide ICD-9 ICD-10 Description E950-E959 X60-X84* Intentional self-harm NRS produce two sets of suicide data for each year since the change (data for 2011 and 2012) to reflect what figures would show using both the old and new coding rules. They note that, when examining trends over time, data using the old coding rules should be used; 2011 data based on the new rules is not directly comparable to old data. E980-E989 1 Y10-Y34 2 Injury/poisoning of undetermined intent Y87.0/Y Sequelae of intentional self-harm / event of undetermined intent 1 Excluding E988.8 for England and Wales. 2 Excluding Y33.9 where the coroner's verdict was pending in England and Wales for From 2007 onwards, deaths previously coded as Y33.9 are coded to U Y87.0 and Y87.2 are not included for England and Wales. *Code used for classifying deaths described as suicide in the Republic of Ireland. NISRA only produce data using the new coding rules since the change (data for 2011 and 2012). Preliminary checks by NISRA have indicated only minimal differences to the coding change, and NISRA therefore does not expect that there will be a significant impact on the figures reported. Provided by ONS. 6

7 UNDERSTANDING SUICIDE STATISTICS This document gives details about the numbers and rates of suicides in the UK and ROI. It is important to understand the differences between numbers and rates in order to use this information correctly. For the definition of suicide as used in the UK see Box 1; for the definition of suicide as used in the ROI see codes X6-X84 in Box 1. For full data tables of numbers and rates see Tables in Appendices. Things to consider when using suicide statistics: The number of suicides in a group (e.g. in a country or a specific age group) can give a misleading picture of the incidence of suicide when considered alone. Rates per 100,000 people are produced in order to adjust for the underlying population size. An area or group with a larger population may have a higher number of suicides than an area or group with a smaller population, but the rate per 100,000 may be lower. The size of populations must also be considered when looking at suicide rates; smaller populations often produce rates that are less reliable as the rates per 100,000 are based on small numbers; therefore differences in the number of suicides may have a bigger impact on the rate than in a larger population. An example of this might be suicide in older people, as the population size is lower than in younger age groups. In the UK, a coroner is able to give a verdict of suicide for those as young as 10 years. However, rates per 100,000 are provided by the ONS for ages 15 years and over when their suicide bulletin is released. This is due to the known subjectivity between coroners with regards to classifying children s deaths as suicide, and because the number in those under 15 tends to be low and their inclusion may reduce the overall rates. NISRA and NRS, however, do provide rates from as young as 10 years and rates for all persons, males and females are based on all ages. The overall rates for all persons, males and females for ROI are based on those aged 15 and over; however, the rates for individual age groups are also produced for those as young as years. When comparing trends over time in suicide it is important to look over a relatively long period. Increases and decreases for a year at a time should not be considered in isolation. There may be fluctuations year-on-year and these should not be viewed as true changes to the trend that is attributable to any psycho-social predictors. Attention must also be paid as to whether rates that are produced are crude rates or age standardised rates. Age standardised rates are rates that have been standardised to the European population so that comparisons between countries can be made with greater confidence. Crude rates have not been standardised in this way. It is also important to note that within countries there can be important regional and local differences in suicide rates. 7

8 UK SUICIDE Data for the UK and all constituent nations in this section has been produced using the new coding rules as described in the UK suicide definition section on page 6. See appendices 1 and 2 for full data tables. See page 20 for information about comparing suicide statistics between nations! Table 1: Number of suicides in UK, 2012 Graph 1: Suicide rates per 100,000* in UK, Overall Male Female UK England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland Table 1 shows that the highest number of suicides occurred in England for all persons, males and females. The lowest number of suicides for all persons, males and females occurred in Northern Ireland. Only looking at the number of suicides in a nation may be misleading as to where suicide is more prevalent. This is due to difference in population size. Rates per 100,000 are used to give a truer picture of where suicide is more prevalent - see Graph 1. Graph 1 shows that the highest suicide rate per 100,000 for females and for all persons was in Scotland and for males was in Northern Ireland; the lowest rates for these three groups were in England. Across the UK, male suicide rates are consistently higher than female rates For the UK as a whole, England, Wales and Northern Ireland the male suicide rate is approximately 3½ times higher than the female rate. In Scotland the male suicide rate is approximately 3 times higher than the female rate. 0.0 Overall Male Female Overall Male Female Overall Male Female Overall Male Female Overall Male Female UK England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland * Rates for UK, England, Wales, and Scotland are age standardised to the European Standard Population; Northern Ireland are crude rates. Rates for UK, England, and Wales are for persons age 15+ years; Scotland and Northern Ireland are for all ages. 8

9 UK SUICIDE BY AGE GROUP 2012 Data for the UK and all constituent nations in this section is that which has been produced using the new coding rules as described in the UK suicide definition section on page 6. Data presented in the graphs in this section are of the suicide rate per 100,000 rather than the number of suicides in an age group; looking at the number of suicides may be misleading due to difference in population sizes. Rates are used to give a truer picture of where suicide is more prevalent. The number of deaths by age group, and full data tables with numerical rates can be found in the tables within appendices 1 and 2. Graph 2: Suicide rates in UK by age group, Male Female Overall Graph 2 shows that in the UK, the age group with the highest suicide rate per 100,000 for all persons is years; for males the highest rate is for years; for females the highest rate is for years. This data also indicates a slight bimodal distribution with peaks in the mid-years and the start of an upward trend towards the oldest age categories. Age group (years) Graph 3: Suicide rates in England by age group, Age group (years) Male Female Overall Graph 3 shows that in England, the age group with the highest suicide rate per 100,000 for all persons and females is years; for males the age group with the highest rate is years. This data also indicates a slight bimodal distribution with peaks in the mid-years and the start of an upward trend towards the oldest age categories. 9

10 Graph 4: Suicide rates in Wales by age group, Age group (years) Male Female Overall Graph 4 shows that in Wales, the age group with the highest suicide rate per 100,000 for all persons and males and females is years. As can be seen in Graph 4, some groups have no rate per 100,000; the ONS will not produce a rate per 100,000 when there are fewer than 3 deaths in a category, as the figure would be susceptible to inaccurate interpretation because a rate produced with such a low number of deaths would not be reliable. Also see notes on page 7 in Understanding Suicide Statistics for information on rates within small populations. Graph 5: Suicide rates in Scotland by age group, 2012* Age group (years) * Scotland data broken down by age and gender relate to deaths that have been classified using the new coding rules; see explanation of suicide definition and coding rules on page 6. Male Female Overall Graph 5 shows that in Scotland, the age group with the highest suicide rate per 100,000 for all persons and males is years; for females the age group with the highest suicide rate is years. As can be seen in Graph 5, the youngest and oldest age groups have no rate per 100,000; the Scottish Public Health Observatory (ScotPHO) do not produce a rate per 100,000 for these groups due to small numbers in these age groups in Scotland. Also see notes on page 7 in Understanding Suicide Statistics for information on rates within small populations. 10

11 Graph 6: Suicide rates in Northern Ireland by age group, Raet per 100, Male Female Overall Graph 6 shows that in Northern Ireland, the age group with the highest suicide rate per 100,000 for all persons and males is years; and for females is years. This data also indicates a slight bimodal distribution with peaks in the younger (20 s) and in the mid years (50 s) for both males and females. Age group (years) 11

12 UK SUICIDE TRENDS OVER TIME Information provided in the text boxes adjacent to the graphs in this section regarding significance and percentage differences in rates has been taken directly from the statistical agencies publications for each nation s suicide data, and is not calculated by Samaritans. Graph 7: Suicide rate per 100,000 in the UK Graph 7 shows that suicide rates have stayed relatively stable in the UK over the last 20 years, with some fluctuations. Since 1992, in the UK, there has been an overall decrease of around 2 per 100,000 for all persons Year Graph 8: Suicide rate per 100,000 in England Year Overall Males Females Overall Males Females Male trend: There has been a general decrease in the UK male rate over 20 years. However there was a significant rise between 1997 and 1998, male rates then fell each year between 2000 and 2007, rose slightly in 2008 and continued to fall until 2011, when the rate increased significantly again with no change in Female trend: The UK female rate remained relatively stable until 2004, after which there was a decrease for 3 years reaching its lowest point. Since then the rate has risen again with fluctuations. There has been no significant change in female suicide rates since Graph 8 shows that suicide rates have stayed relatively stable in England over the last 20 years, with some fluctuations. There has been an overall decrease of around 3 per 100,000 for all persons. Male trend: England is similar to that of the whole UK (see box above) and while there has been an overall decrease of almost 4 per 100,000 over 20 years there were notable fluctuations around 1998, 2008 and Female trend: Again, mirrors the UK, remaining more stable than the male rates with some fluctuations; over 20 years seeing an overall decrease of around 2 per 100,

13 Graph 9: Suicide rate per 100,000 in Wales Year Overall Males Females Graph 9 shows that in Wales, the trend for male suicides has fluctuated over the last 20 years, as has the female rate, although less dramatically. The male rate has decreased by about 3 per 100,000 over this period. However there have been greater fluctuations, and an overall range of around 8 per 100,000 between the highest (24.6 in 1992 and 1999) and lowest (16.7 in 2008). Since 1992 the male rate in Wales has remained consistently higher than that in England and the UK as a whole. In 2012 the rate in Wales for men was 23% higher than England. Despite fluctuations in the female rate, with peaks in 1998, 2002, and 2008, there has been a decrease of less than 1 per 100,000 over the last 20 years. Graph 10: Suicide rate per 100,000 in Scotland * Year Overall Males Females Graph 10 shows that, in Scotland, the rate of suicide is similar to 20 years previously in 1992, but has fluctuated over this time. The male rate appeared consistently higher for the first 10 years, and then lowered from 2003 with a notable fluctuation around Over 20 years there has been an overall decrease of around 2 per 100,000. The female rate seems to have remained largely stable over time. In additional analyses using three-year rolling averages (ScotPHO, 2013), it has been shown that between and there was an 18% fall in suicide rates overall (20% for males and 10% for females). *Data in Graph 10 only includes deaths coded using old-rules (see notes in UK suicide definition section, page 6). This is because data using new-rules for 2011 and 2012 is not directly comparable to the previous years data and, as advised by ScotPHO, old rules data should be used when making comparisons over time. 13

14 Graph 11: Suicide rate per 100,000 in Northern Ireland Year Overall Males Females Graph 11 shows that in Northern Ireland, there was relative stability during the period between 1992 and Since 2004 both the male and female rates have seen increases; the male rate has increased by 11 per 100,000 and the female rate by 2 per 100,000 in this latter period of the last 20 years. However, this has not been a steady increase; the rate has fluctuated year on year, particularly for males, with a peak in

15 REPUBLIC OF IRELAND SUICIDE 2012 The data for suicide in the Republic of Ireland (ROI) is presented in a separate section because these statistics are not comparable to those for the UK. For a full explanation of the reasons for this please see the information on pages 5-7. For full data tables see appendices 3 and 4. Table 2: Number of suicides in ROI, 2012 Overall Male Female Table 2 shows that the highest number of suicides occurred in males; with approximately 4 times as many male as female suicides. Only looking at the number of suicides in a nation may be misleading as to where suicide is more prevalent. This is due to the difference in the population size of groups. Rates per 100,000 are used to give a truer picture of where suicide is more prevalent - see Graph 12. Graph 12: Suicide Rates per 100,000 in ROI, Graph 12 shows that the highest suicide rate per 100,000 was for males in the ROI. The rate for male suicides is almost 5 times that of females. 5 0 Overall Male Female 15

16 REPUBLIC OF IRELAND SUICIDE BY AGE GROUP 2012 Data are of the suicide rate per 100,000 rather than the number of suicides in an age group; looking at the number of suicides may be misleading due to differences in population sizes. Rates are used to give a truer picture of where suicide is more prevalent. The number of deaths by age group, and full data tables with numerical rates can be found in the tables within appendices 3 and 4. Graph 13: Suicide rates in ROI by age group Male Female Overall Graph 13 shows that in ROI, the age group with the highest suicide rate per 100,000 for all persons is 40-44years, for males is years, and for females the highest rate is in the age group years. For males there seems to be three peaks of suicide rate across the age groups; in the 20 s, 40 s, and early 60 s. The female rate seems to fluctuate also but does remain relatively stable across the age groups compared to the male trend. Age group (years) 16

17 REPUBLIC OF IRELAND SUICIDE RATES TRENDS OVER TIME Graph 14: Suicide rate per 100,000 in ROI Year Overall Males Females Graph 14 shows the rates for suicide in ROI are similar to those of 20 years ago, however, the male rate has fluctuated notably during this time; the female rate has remained relatively stable. Over this time the male rate has had a range of around 11 per 100,000 with a low of 19.3 per 100,000 in 1993 increasing to 30.6 per 100,000 in From 1998 there was a general decrease until 2008 when the rate began to rise again. While stable in comparison to the male trend, the female rates seem to peak in 1994, 1999, 2001 and

18 CHALLENGES WITH SUICIDE STATISTICS The under-reporting of suicide: It is commonly acknowledged by professionals in the field of suicide research that official statistics underestimate the true number and rate of suicide. This is not only the case in the UK and ROI but in most (if not all) countries. There are various reasons and explanations for this underreporting, which will be described in this section. One of the main reasons for the under-reporting of deaths by suicide is the misclassification of deaths. This means that the cause of death is coded as something other than suicide. An example of this may be where a coroner cannot establish whether there was intent by the individual to kill his/herself and so the cause of death may be recorded as one of undetermined intent or accidental. This may occur in situations where the death involved a road traffic accident or where there is long term illness. It could also be difficult to determine whether there was intent to die in situations of self-harm leading to suicide. The difference in methods of suicide between males and females is discussed by many researchers: males seem to choose more final and obvious methods than females. It may be that in methods more commonly used by females, the intent cannot be determined (or assumed) as easily as in methods more common to males. This may, in part, explain some of the variation in rates between the genders, as there may be more under-reporting of suicidal deaths in females (Cantor, Leenaars & Lester, 1997). Some researchers comment that the subjective nature of the coronal system could also lead to under-reporting. There may be many reasons a coroner may classify a death as something other than suicide. It could be that the coroner believes there is not enough evidence to prove that suicide was the cause of death; a coroner should record a cause of death based on the principle of beyond doubt as opposed to on the balance of probabilities. There may be stigma attached to reporting a death as suicide. This could be particularly relevant in instances such as child deaths, or relate to the socio-cultural norms of the individual, their family or community, cultural or religious taboos (e.g. suicide rates in Islamic communities seem to be very low, which may be attributed to underreporting due to familial stigma [De Leo 2002; 2009]). It has been suggested that in the UK there continues to be a stigma attached to suicide from a time when it was a criminal offence. In some countries it is still a criminal offence and so there may be even more stigma attached, and therefore more under-reporting of suicide. In the UK, part of the solution to under-reporting has been to include deaths of undetermined intent within the official statistical category of suicide. This attempts to correct for known under-reporting and is thought to produce a more accurate total (and rate) of suicide in a given year. However, this may cause problems in the ability to compare suicide statistics across countries, some of which, e.g. ROI, do not include this category. In England and Wales, the use of narrative verdicts allows coroners to give a verdict that does not necessarily have to be restricted to one cause of death; a narrative account is given of the circumstances surrounding a death, and this may eliminate some of the problems of trying to restrict a verdict to one short form code. However, when a narrative verdict is given by a coroner, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is still required to assign a code to the death in the usual way. Where intent cannot be established and the ONS cannot be clear from the narrative verdict that the cause of death was suicide, the death is coded as accidental, rather than of undetermined intent. These deaths are therefore not included in the UK count of suicide and may add further to the under-reporting problem. The ONS has undertaken analyses which suggest that the use of narrative verdicts is not significantly impacting upon the suicide statistics at present. However, this may change if the use of narrative verdicts continues to increase (ONS, Suicides in the UK 2011 statistical bulletin, ).

19 It is also important to note that suicide is not the only cause of death that suffers under-reporting through misclassification. For example, lung cancer has a 16% error rate. While it would be unrealistic to expect death reporting to have no error, every effort should be made to ensure statistics are as accurate as possible. The reliability and validity of suicide statistics: It is important to address the reliability of suicide statistics since these are commonly used to directly influence decisions about public policy and public health (including suicide prevention) strategies. The reliability of statistics is obviously affected by the misclassification of deaths leading to under-reporting (see section above). There are several other additional factors that need to be considered. It has been suggested that there may be inconsistencies in coroners processes to establish a cause of death; individual coroners may record deaths differently to others. For example, a coroner may decide not to give a statement of intent on the death registration in some situations, such as in the deaths of children, which may be out of sympathy for the family or sensitivity to the cultural/religious beliefs of a family. Differences may also arise in situations that prove difficult for the coroner to establish one cause of death; for example, when chronic illness is a factor in the death or in road accidents where there may also have been suicidal intent. Such situations leave room for interpretation and subjectivity. As well as the death registration processes being subject to interpretation and inconsistencies within a country, there are also likely to be inconsistencies between countries. To take an obvious example, there are different death registration processes across the UK nations. Therefore, it cannot be assumed that suicide statistics in one country are measuring the same phenomenon as those in another country. Reliability is affected by the multiple definitions of suicide. Silverman (2006) claims that there are more than 27 definitions of suicide used in the research literature and this adds another dimension to the problem of reliability, as suicide is defined differently by different researchers and research disciplines, and in different context and professions. For example, the clinical and legal definitions of suicide differ: within a legal definition (used by coroners) there must be evidence that there was intent to take one s life, whereas a clinical definition is based on a less stringent concept of proof. Therefore, there may be under-reporting where there is insufficient evidence of suicide available to satisfy coronial requirements. There are various positions within the research field as to the reliability of suicide statistics and how (or even if) they can be used effectively. Some researchers reject the use of official suicide statistics because their reliability is so low; others, however, argue that the statistics are in fact still reliable enough to be used to establish trends over time. It can be argued that suicide statistics have poor validity but reasonable reliability. This would mean that, even if we accept the limitations to the statistics, the data still has some temporal stability and any limiting factor would continuously be a limiting factor over time. Therefore trends could be accepted to be truer than the statistics; changes in rates and fluctuations may be valid if under-reporting remains stable over time (Brugha & Walsh, 1978; Sainsbury & Jenkins, 1982). In this way, suicide statistics will still give us valuable information about suicide over time and in different groups who may be at risk. Others, however, are more sceptical about both validity and reliability of official statistics. It is also worth noting that due to the human nature of registration and reporting, and the complexity of suicidal behaviour and actions, it is inevitable that suicide statistics will never be completely reliable. It can be argued that this will always be the case (Sainsbury & Jenkins, 1982); the subjective nature of recording deaths and the differences between countries registration processes will forever pose a problem for any official statistics and their wider use. However, this should not be taken 19

20 to suggest that we should not raise these issues and continue to do everything possible to limit these confounding factors, so that the suicide statistics are as reliable as possible. Also, fluctuations and trends should not be ignored because of the issues of under-reporting, misclassification and limited reliability. All mortality figures will be subject to some degree of error, but they do still provide valuable insights and predictive information (Goldney, 2010). A recent systematic review (Tøllefsen, Hem and Ekeberg 2012) concludes that there is a lack of research into the reliability of suicide statistics, but also concludes that there is a tendency in international data to underreport suicide. Difficulties comparing suicide statistics: As has been mentioned in the previous sections, there are some differences in the way different countries register deaths, and therefore how deaths are classified as suicides. This potentially undermines confidence in the value of comparing suicide statistics across countries. Lower or higher rates may be an artefact of lower or higher quality (or just different) registration procedures between countries, rather than a reflection of true differences in suicide risk. Consequently, some researchers suggest that cross-country comparison should not be made or assumed to provide any reliable information about which populations may be at more risk of suicide (Sainsbury & Jenkins, 1982). Other researchers suggest that the differences in coding and registration of suicides pose problems that make comparisons difficult, but not impossible; that the rates should be compared with caution (Gjertsen, 2000). In this view, the differences are not enough to stop comparisons between countries, and to do so would prove unhelpful in understanding suicide epidemiology. This is generally the view that Samaritans takes. However, this document highlights the differences in the collection and presentation of suicide statistics across the UK and ROI, which seems unnecessary and unhelpful in a group of nations so socially, economically and politically linked. The most obvious of these differences is between the UK and ROI since suicide is defined differently (see page 5-6). However, even within the UK, the constituent nations statistics are not directly comparable. Differences in the time it takes to register a death in England & Wales compared to Northern Ireland or Scotland mean that some annual figures reflect a truer picture of the occurrence of suicide than others (see ONS, 2014). In this context, Samaritans would like to see greater collaboration across the statistical agencies and consistency in the collection and presentation of suicide statistics, to support the joining up of suicide prevention efforts across the UK and ROI. References: Brugha, T. & Walsh, D. (1978). Suicide past and present the temporal constancy of under-reporting. The British Journal of Psychiatry, 132, Cantor, C. H., Leenaars, A. A., & Lester, D. (1997). Under-reporting of suicide in Ireland Archives of Suicide Research, 3, De Leo, D. (2002). Struggling against suicide. The need for an integrative approach. Crisis, 23, De Leo, D. (2009). Cross-cultural research widens suicide prevention horizons (Editorial). Crisis, 30, Gjertsen, F. (2000). Head on the mountainside accident or suicide? About the reliability of suicide statistics. Retrieved on 22 Feb 2012 from Goldney, R. D. (2010). A Note on the Reliability and Validity of Suicide Statistics. Psychiatry, Psychology and Law, 17(1), Office for National Statistics (ONS; 2014) Suicides in the United Kingdom, 2012 Registrations. Statistical Bulletin. Sainsbury, P., & Jenkins, J. S. (1982). The Accuracy of Officially Reported Suicide Statsitics for Purposes of Epidemiological Research. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 36(1), Silverman, M. M. (2006) The language of suicidology. Suicide and Life-Threatening Behaviour, 36, Tøllefsen, I. M., Hem, E., & Ekeberg, Ø. (2012). The reliability of suicide statistics: A systematic review. BMC Psychiatry, 12, 9-9. doi: / X

21 APPENDIX 1: of deaths by suicide* in the UK * Suicide as defined by the Office for National Statistics for coding and definition see Box 1, page 6. Table 3. UK suicide rates for all persons, males and females and by age group, UK for persons aged 15+ Overall Male Female Overall Male Female Overall Male Female by age group (years): Overall Male Female Overall Male Female Overall Male Female

22 Table 4. England suicide rates for all persons, males and females and by age group, England for persons aged 15+ Overall Male Female Overall Male Female Overall Male Female by age group (years): Overall Male Female Overall Male Female Overall Male Female

23 Table 5. Wales suicide rates for all persons, males and females and by age group, Wales for persons aged 15+ Overall Male Female Overall Male Female Overall Male Female by age group (years): Overall Male Female Overall Male Female Overall Male Female * * * * * * * * * * * * *

24 Table 6. Scotland suicide rates for all persons, males and females and by age group, Scotland 2010 Old coding rules* 2011 Old coding rules* 2011 New coding rules* 2012 Old coding rules* 2012 New coding rules* Rate per 100,000 for all persons All Male Female All Male Female All Male Female All Male Female All Male Female Rate per 100,000 by age group (years): All Male Female All Male Female All Male Female All Male Female All Male Female 0-14 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *See page 6 regarding changes to coding rules and guidance on where new and old rules are appropriate. 24

25 Table 7. Northern Ireland suicide rates for all persons, males and females and by age group, Northern Ireland for all persons Overall Male Female Overall Male Female Overall Male Female by age group (years): Overall Male Female Overall Male Female Overall Male Female

26 APPENDIX 2: Number of deaths by suicide* in the UK * Suicide as defined by the Office for National Statistics for coding and definition see Box 1, page 6. Table 8. UK suicide numbers for all persons, males and females and by age group, UK Number of deaths for persons aged 15+ Overall Male Female Overall Male Female Overall Male Female 5,608 4,231 1,377 6, ,981 4,590 1,391 Number of deaths by age group (years): Overall Male Female Overall Male Female Overall Male Female

27 Table 9. England suicide numbers for all persons, males and females and by age group, England Number of deaths for persons aged 15+ Overall Male Female Overall Male Female Overall Male Female 4,200 3,165 1,035 4,509 3,415 1,094 4,507 3,483 1,024 Number of deaths by age group (years): Overall Male Female Overall Male Female Overall Male Female

28 Table 10. Wales suicide numbers for all persons, males and females and by age group, Wales Number of deaths for persons aged 15+ Overall Male Female Overall Male Female Overall Male Female Number of deaths by age group (years): Overall Male Female Overall Male Female Overall Male Female

29 Table 11. Scotland suicide numbers for all persons, males and females and by age group, Scotland 2010 Old coding rules* 2011 Old coding rules* 2011 New coding rules* 2012 Old coding rules* 2012 New coding rules* Number of deaths for all persons All Male Female All Male Female All Male Female All Male Female All Male Female Number of deaths by age group (years): All Male Female All Male Female All Male Female All Male Female All Male Female 0-14 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *See page 6 regarding changes to coding rules and guidance on where new and old rules are appropriate. 29

30 Table 12. Northern Ireland suicide numbers for all persons, males and females and by age group, Northern Ireland Number of deaths for all persons Overall Male Female Overall Male Female Overall Male Female Number of deaths by age group (years): Overall Male Female Overall Male Female Overall Male Female

31 APPENDIX 3: of deaths by suicide* in ROI * Suicide as defined by the Central statistics Office Ireland for coding and definition see *note within Box 1, page 6. Table 13. Republic of Ireland suicide rates for all persons, males and females and by age group, ROI for persons aged 15+ Overall Male Female Overall Male Female Overall Male Female by age group (years): Overall Male Female Overall Male Female Overall Male Female