Establishing a line of sight for risk management

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1 Establishing a line of sight for risk management This white paper is written for those who are familiar with the PAS55/ISO55000 specification for optimized management of physical assets and are struggling to connect risk management with other processes within the asset management system (By J. Schipper, Managing Director of UMS Group Europe BV) This paper starts with a story about my first experience with line of sight in risk management. In my previous job, before I joined UMS Group, I was responsible for the Asset Management business unit within the Operations division of a distribution company. When I started my job, the business unit had just been created and the organisation was mostly just a collection of ideas and plans that we wanted to establish. Every year in October the financial consolidations began in preparation of the financial closing cycle. All necessary procedures were in place and executed to ensure good governance of the business. One of these procedures included an official letter of responsibility (LoR) from the CFO. He asked all business unit managers to confirm that a system was in place to identify all business risks and that these risks had been properly mitigated. As the responsible BU manager, I was supposed to sign this letter or report back with the issues I saw. It was my first year, so it was difficult to say if we had identifed all the risks, as I just had started the BU and we didn t have risk management processes in place yet. However we used this opportunity to develop an inventory of all known risks known within my business area. Exactly one year later we were better prepared. As expected the LoR came in October and this time I could report back to the CFO the risks that we had identified. I can assure you it were a lot and they had major impacts! We had even created a method to calculate the Value at Risk, a KPI which expressed the risk in Euros! We were proud of what we had accomplished in just one year, but it turns out that we were naïve. I thought that our work would be a pleasant surprise for the CFO. However, a few days later I received a call from the Head of Finance informing me that the CFO was very upset with the results of my LoR. Due to the fact that I had sent him all my technical issues and labelled them as risks, he now had the accountant declining to approve the financial statement. Since I had reported all of these technical issues as risks, our accountant feared that there would be a major impact on the finacial results in near future. I was instructed to withdraw my LoR and reconsider whether the reported issues just were technical issues or real risks! We concluded that my risks were asset risks, rather than the enterprise wide risks, with that it had a major impact on the overall business result that the CFO was looking for. So it turned out to be a happy ending! 2014 UMS Group Inc., All Rights Reserved Page 1

2 One thing I learned from this incident was that there was a misalignment between my definition of risk and the definition of risk from a corporate perspective. The method applied at the corporate level was derived from the international COSO II risk management standard and focuses on enterprise wide risks. I would describe these enterprise risks as generic threats to the business with a major impact, and not related to any specific asset. Within my Asset Management business domain we were looking at asset failures that impacted the business. To identify these asset risks we had made an inventory of possible failures by asset types. The charactaristic of these failures were generic and related to a population of assets. Although the enterprise risks and the assets risks didn t seem to have any relation with each other, they were both generic and not specific! My intuition told me that there should be some kind of connection. But how to articulate this connection? I started to see the connection when we started to differentiate policies and plans for cables and pipes. It was clear that a generic policy for maintenance or replacement would not be the optimal solution as we realized that there should be a hugh difference in the risk profile of assets in the countryside compared to a major city. We were looking to differentiate our risks, but we also wanted to use one method to evaluate risks (Risk Matrix). I had made an incorrect asumption in thinking that there would be a connection which would consolidate Asset Risks and Enterprise Risks. This pyramid structure thinking assumed that you could consolidate risk to a higher conceptual level and eventually end at a strategic level of risks. However, when I changed my way of thinking, a new perspective opened. It turned out that the way forward was to start defining events in a very specific way. When we started evaluating specific events with one and only one risk matrix we quickly found that there were three types of business risk categories. The first category of events were those that have an acceptable risk. Then there was a category of events that were unacceptable. The third category were those events in between. Some examples will be provided below to demonstrate how these three specific risk categories create the connection between Asset Risks and Enterprise Risks UMS Group Inc., All Rights Reserved Page 2

3 The first example is an unacceptable risk, the second is an event that leads to a generic asset policy changing into a more differentiated approach, and the third example shows how to deal with acceptable risks. Example 1. Flooding causing the blackout of a major city This first example is the blackout of a city with a population of over 200,000 for a period longer than two weeks. This type of event is not an act of God. It is realistic and can occur several times per year in Europe although a two week blackout would be a long period. However to show how the connection between enterprise risk and asset risk works, this simplified example works well. When this specific event is evaluated with the risk matrix it falls into the category unacceptable risk. These are risks which should be reported as part of corporate risk reporting. It is part of the Asset Manager s responsibility to develop a policy or technical solution to mitigate this risk. It may be that the only real method of mitigation is to have a good insurance policy and develop an effective communcation and emergency plan. However the nature of this event is such that it will have a high profile with the public and as such could hurt the reputation of the company. Due to its sensitive nature, this risk is immediately connected to opinions regarding good governance of the company. Good governance is your licence to operate. Due to this nature of these risks, they need to be labelled as enterprise risk and corporate management needs to be aware of them UMS Group Inc., All Rights Reserved Page 3

4 Example 2. HV line failure due to overhanging trees. Normally, every Transmission company has a generic view on vegetation management. It is a well known risk that overhanging trees can cause a system short circuit leading to a blackout. The first step is to redefine this generic failure into a very specific event. In this case we took a look in the Netherlands at the HV transmission grid of TenneT-TSO and mapped tree density in the Netherlands. By reviewing these maps, three areas can be identified where overhead lines go through areas of high tree density. In these areas, overhanging trees may cause a fault in a HV circuit resulting in a blackout of a city of more than 100,000. Evaluating this specific event with the risk matrix will indicate a high level risk. It is not unacceptable, but to mitigate the risk, you need to differentiate the generic vegetation management policy in these three areas (high tree density) to lower its probability to a more acceptable level. Two important remarks. From the perspective of enterprise risk, this risk is a technical issue not a risk! So as the Asset Manager you are supposed to take care of this with an effective vegetation management strategy. Secondly, the specific nature of this event requires data analytics and visualisation tools. When looking at future developments in IT needs of Asset Managers, it can be expected that data analytics and specific visualisation tooling will be new areas which will develop rapidly. Example 3. Failure of street lights The last category of risks are those that are evaluated as relatively low. As an example, the failure of a street light which causes customer compliants regarding safety on the local highway. In itself, this is a low risk and the current replacement strategy should be applied as it is, as this type of risk is acceptable. However there is a reason why you should track and record actual failures and compliants. At the moment a failure occurs or when a customer complains, the risk is not a risk anymore. It has materilized! So it is not a potential threat, but it an event. All events that occur are important to register. It might be that the failure is an indication of a deeper and more complex problem in your system which might be a potential threat! It is important to be able to analyze actual failures to identify any patterns. These failures are potential early warning signals of threats to come 2014 UMS Group Inc., All Rights Reserved Page 4

5 What has been established by looking at specific examples is the connection between risks related to asset failures and enterprise risks with major impacts on business strategy. So a first step in the line of sight in risk management has been found! The next step is determining how to mitigate these risks and establish a line of sight in this domain. To establish this aspect of the line of sight, it is important to realize that business risks (1) need to mitigated with effective Asset Strategies, (2) these should translate into actionable project and programs in your portfolio, and (3)each investment in your portfolio should be connected to one or more business risks. The most difficult part in establishing this aspect of the line of sight is in the area of Asset Strategy. This is where the Asset Life Cycle philosophy, the current state of the assets, and the future threats (risks) need to be combined. Processing and analyzing all information should lead to the most effective Asset Strategy. The last stage of this process is to determine the residual risk and describe the concrete plans that need to be implemented to mitigate the risk. These plans will be translated into specific projects and programs in your portfolio UMS Group Inc., All Rights Reserved Page 5

6 The above examples and suggestions put the line of sight of risk management at the stage where all projects and programs come together in the portfolio. Each project or program should be connected to one or more risks in your portfolio. The next step is to question whether the projects in the profolio will be funded or not. Most companies evaluate project funding once per year during the budgeting cycle; however, some companies evaluate the portfolio once per quarter, and some have implemented a monthly evaluation of the portfolio. In the end, the decision to be made is whether a project will be funded or not, and if the project will be deferred to the next decision making cycle. In this decision making process there are two options. The first is that the project is funded and the risk involved is mitigated after implementing the project, leaving only the residual risk. The second option is that the project is deferred to the next decision point. The risk is still open and the risk of deferral needs to be added to the original risk. In both cases, a feedback loop needs to be created with the risk register to record what the new risk position will be. When this feedback loop is in place, the last step of the line of sight in risk management is established. Now the question is raised about how far along you are in establishing the line of sight in risk management. It is relatively simple to identify the gaps. Start with your risk register and check if all risks have a unique risk identity number. Now take an Asset Strategy document. Do you see a table or a graph in it which lists or plots the risks (including risk identification number) that are mitigated with this Asset Strategy? Read through more of the Asset Strategy document until you reach the overview of programs that are identified to mitigate the risks (including portfolio identification number). Now open you project library. Take one of your projects in the library and check whether this project is connected to one or more risks (including risk identification). Now check whether the project is connected to at least one asset strategy. What are your findings? Where do you see a gap? 2014 UMS Group Inc., All Rights Reserved Page 6

7 Some may wonder what the added value is of all this tracking and tracing. It is a lot of work to add to all these documents and it does not improve the strategy content wise, so why do it? To a certain point I would agree with this perspective; however, if you are already sure that this line of sight has been established, the additional tracking and tracing parameters will not help. On the other hand, it is possible that your asset strategies cannot be connected to any risks identified, or that there is no relation between projects and risks. In such a situation you could be dealing with asset strategies that do not contribute to the mitigation of any risks, or in other words, the asset strategies solve problems that are not problems! That would really be a waste of time and money wouldn t it? It s at least worthwhile to check, don t you agree? For any comments or remarks please contact me: Jan Schipper Managing Director UMS Group Europe info@umsgroup.com 2014 UMS Group Inc., All Rights Reserved Page 7

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