OECD 2013 annual meeting of senior PPP officials

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1 PricewaterhouseCoopers OECD 2013 annual meeting of senior PPP officials Overview of global PPP markets 15 April 2013

2 Contents 1. Trends in the global PPP market 2. Trends in global project finance 3. Policy responses 4. Observations and conclusions

3 Trends in the global PPP market The European PPP market recorded in 2012 its lowest volume and number of transactions for a decade EPEC, 2012 review

4 General decline in deal volumes... 4

5 With ongoing changes in funding mix Debt markets struggling with Sovereign ratings, Basel III and de-leveraging Increasing reliance on multilaterals and export credit agencies Increased completion payments / milestones to reduce senior debt requirement Share of bonds, IFI finance and equity finance has increased slightly 5

6 Decline is impacting all regions... Developed markets over-borrowed and over-taxed Significant capital programmes in emerging markets, but PPP slow to develop 6

7 With European s decline particularly pronounced Within Europe the UK and France accounted for nearly 75% of transactions 7

8 Sectoral impact is variable Transport remains the most active sector; social sectors declined sharply in

9 Trends in global project finance Despite rising demand tells a story of deterioration in the markets where private capital has previously flourished Infrastructure Journal, 2012 review

10 Global project finance market Annual project finance invested globally (US$ Bn) Source: Project Finance International 11

11 Global project finance market Global loans by sector (US$m) Sector growth Power 56,289 73,300 80,499 66,308 18% Oil & Gas 25,640 25,951 38,835 60, % Transportation 25,451 52,315 43,607 40,467 59% Telecommunications 8,118 13,383 5,314 10,303 27% Leisure and Property 7,474 13,824 15,439 6,833-9% Water & Sewerage 4,699 1, % Mining 4,071 8,858 10,823 4,418 9% Industry 3,454 6,306 12,154 3,241-6% Petrochemicals 2,797 11,306 4,614 1,529-45% Waste & Recycling 1,194 1, % Other n/a n/a Total 139, , , ,746 43% Source: Project Finance International 12

12 Policy responses While the Europeans talked other did get on with it Project Finance International, 2012 league tables

13 Policy responses UK: A new PPP model (PF2): Government equity participation Soft services excluded Minor changes to risk allocation Encouragement for capital markets financing A new brand! Plus state guarantees and direct lending (again): UK Guarantees of up to GBP40bn Government loans made available to some 30 PPP projects 14

14 Policy responses EIB project bond initiative: Subordinated loan or contingent facility To credit enhance senior debt Pilot phase to 2016; Euro 230m focused on transport Export credit agency facilities: Major source of credit / guarantees, linked to national project content Focus on utilities and industrials but can be broader Particularly effective for Japanese, Korean and Chinese contractors; leading to some concern on market concentration 15

15 Observations and conclusions

16 Observations and conclusions Continued difficult economic conditions in many countries with established PPP programmes Now leading to marked decline in transaction volumes and values notwithstanding the availability of equity Gradual but slow transition from bank to capital market financing, but with few notable signs of progress in the last year In general the policy response does not appear sufficient to arrest the decline in PPP But: The fundamental conditions for PPP to thrive remain and we are optimistic about medium term growth in developing markets Brownfield / secondary market remains active and growing 17

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