Analysis of Chinese Motor Insurance

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1 Analysis of Chinese Motor Insurance Yao Rui Tao Qian Orlando, United States June 2007

2 Agenda Motor insurance market context Third Party Motor Insurance in China Motor vehicle insurance rating Final Considerations 1

3 Motor insurance market context d 1100 Chi na USA Japan Chi na USA Japan Chi na USA Japan per motor vehi cl es per i nhabi tants per motor vehi cl es per i nhabi tants Chi na USA Japan Chi na USA Japan 2

4 Motor insurance market context Economic Activity and Traffic ---- GDP ($) per inhabitant d Chi na USA J apan Back 3

5 Motor insurance market context Economic Activity and Traffic ---- Motor vehicles per inhabitant Chi na USA J apan Back 4

6 Motor insurance market context Economic Activity and Traffic ---- Motor vehicles per road-km Chi na USA J apan Back 5

7 Motor insurance market context Economic Activity and Traffic ---- Road deaths Chi na USA J apan Per motor vehicles Per i nhabi t ant s Back 6

8 Motor insurance market context Economic Activity and Traffic ---- Road injuries Chi na USA J apan Per motor vehicles Per i nhabi t ant s 7

9 Motor insurance market context 1. 8% 1. 6% 1. 4% 1. 2% 1. 0% 0. 8% 0. 6% 0. 4% 0. 2% 0. 0% % % % % % Chi na USA Japan Motor insurance penetration TPL i nsurance penetrati on % Chi na USA Japan Pr emiumincome (mot or i nsurance) per mot or vehi cl e Pr emiumincome (mot or i nsurance) per i nhabi t ant Chi na USA Japan Pr emiumincome (TPL) per mot or vehi cl e Pr emiumincome (TPL) per i nhabi t ant

10 Motor insurance market context Gross Premium Revenue --- insurance penetration 1. 8% 1. 6% 1. 4% 1. 2% 1. 0% 0. 8% 0. 6% 0. 4% 0. 2% 0. 0% % % % % % % Chi na USA J apan Mot or i nsur ance penet r at i on TPL i nsur ance penet r at i on Back 9

11 Motor insurance market context Premium income (total motor insurance) per unit Chi na USA J apan Pr emi umincome ( motor i nsurance) per mot or vehi cl e Pr emi umincome ( mot or i nsur ance) per i nhabi t ant Back 10

12 Motor insurance market context Premium income (TPL) per unit Chi na USA Japan Pr emi umincome ( TPL) per mot or vehi cl e Pr emi umincome ( TPL) per i nhabi t ant

13 Third Party Motor Insurance in China Regulation development for TPL 12

14 Third Party Motor Insurance in China Introduction to SALI Introduction to commercial TPL Distinctions between SALI and commercial TPL Compulsoriness Coverage Limits of liability Exclusions and Deductible Premium Profit 13

15 Motor vehicle liability insurance rating Agenda Rating of SALI Rating of commercial TPL Primary tariff Adjustment coefficients Rating factors Bolus Malus System 14

16 Motor vehicle liability insurance rating Rating of SALI No-loss, No-profit rules Uniform regulation and primary tariff Independent management and account Revise future premium rates. 15

17 Motor vehicle liability insurance rating Rating of commercial TPL Main classes of risk rating factors Motor vehicles Drivers Driving environment. Rate Final rate = Primary tariff C 1 C 2 L C n where C 1 2 L, C,, C n are adjustment coefficient. 16

18 Motor vehicle liability insurance rating Primary tariff Rating factors usage number of seats tonnage limit of insurance liability place of registration/residence (region) 17

19 Motor vehicle liability insurance rating Adjustment coefficients Premium differentiation factor classes spread Driver/owner classification agender 2 5% age age of driving license loyalty bonus 2 10% additional Contract with insurer 2 5% Use classification BMS motoring fines 2 10% user group(no. of drivers) 2 10% low-mileage discount region of use Motor vehicle classification type of car/model Additional classifications motorcade management * * experience & excepted loss ratio No. of cars insured The overall spread with regard to the primary premium differentiation is approx. 1 to

20 Motor vehicle liability insurance rating Rating factors-Ⅰ 19

21 Motor vehicle liability insurance rating Rating factors-Ⅱ 20

22 Motor vehicle liability insurance rating Bonus Malus System In 2003, only four to five classes In June 2006 Three different BMS Ten different classes In April 2007 The new BMS that is being used Seven classes Premium fluctuation spread are much smaller 21

23 Motor vehicle liability insurance rating Bonus Malus System No. class premium 1 year 2 years 3 years The spread for the BMS is No claims in the past after less than 3 Downgrading after 3 after 4 after more than 4 upgrading to the class claims to the class % % % % % % %

24 Motor vehicle liability insurance rating Appraisal Easy to understand and to use It is not a optimal BMS Bonus and malus are insensitive to the claim frequency Induce adverse selection Premium income might decrease 23

25 Final Considerations Further development Market Actuarial technologies Rating factors BMS SALI presents many uncertainties for the market Much further research remains to be done 24

26 Yao Rui and Tao Qian 25

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