2016 Q1 results. Mauricio Ramos, CEO Tim Pennington, CFO 26 th April 2016

Transcription

1 2016 Q1 results Mauricio Ramos, CEO Tim Pennington, CFO 26 th April 2016

2 Disclaimer This presentation may contain certain forward-looking statements with respect to Millicom s expectations and plans, strategy, management s objectives, future performance, costs, revenue, earnings and other trend information. It is important to note that Millicom s actual results in the future could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements depending on various important factors. All forward-looking statements in this presentation are based on information available to Millicom on the date hereof. All written or oral forward-looking statements attributable to Millicom International Cellular S.A., any Millicom International Cellular S.A. employees or representatives acting on Millicom s behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by the factors referred to above. Millicom does not intend to update these forward-looking statements. Page 2

3 CEO review Mauricio Ramos, 26 th April 2016

4 Key Messages 1 We confirm 2016 full year outlook: Q1 is on track 2 Continued strategic rebalancing of our revenue mix 3 Focused strategy execution Page 4

5 Q1 results Q1 on track with 2016 full year guidance Organic growth Guidance Service revenue 1,435 US$ million +4.1% Mid-single digit Adjusted EBITDA 550 US$ million +7.0% Mid to high-single digit Page 5

6 2 Revenue mix rebalancing to higher growth Service revenue mix evolving towards higher growth opportunities Revenue mix 2016 Q1 Q1 Growth Latam Voice & sms 31.7% -12.8% Monetize mobile data Latam Mobile data 19.5% 28.6% Build cable in Latam Cable growth 25.8% 11.0% Africa 15.1% 12.1% Service revenue 4.1% Page 6

7 2 Monetizing data Data monetization strategy paying off Smartphone users Thousands Data usage GB/user/month 14, ,851 21, % YoY mobile data growth % 1.04 Q1 15 Q1 16 Data ARPU US$ constant FX Q1 15 Q % 5.80 Q1 15 Q1 16 Page 7

8 2 Building cable Cable: building the network continues Total Homes Passed, Thousands 7,169 7,256 1,410 1,384 7,499 1,322 Legacy access HFC 7,632 7,715 1,258 1,209 Increase in HFC Homes Passed Q1 15 to Q1 16 Thousands +175k CAM +383k Colombia 5,758 5,873 6,177 6,375 6, k Bolivia Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q k Paraguay +13.6% YoY growth in home revenue Page 8

9 2 Diversified portfolio of countries Our Latam portfolio is well balanced in size and contribution 1 Top 6 = 83.1% 2 Diversified Top 6 Mix of proportionate EBITDA generation Q Before corporate costs Top 6 relative contribution Q % of the 83.1% Honduras Bolivia 83.1% Guatemala Colombia Paraguay El Salvador Page 9

10 3 Operational strategy execution progressing Our operational strategy execution is progressing Colombia, Q1 2016, YoY growth in LC Launch of DTH 8.8% 1.4% 2.3% -0.4% Tigo (Mobile) UNE (Home) UNE (B2B) TigoUNE (Service) Paraguay Q1 2016, YoY growth in LC Launch of 4G 21.2% 15.3% 3.5% 7.1% -11.7% Mobile Home Fixed B2B MFS Service revenue Page 10

11 3 Operational strategy execution progressing Our operational strategy execution is progressing Bolivia, Q1 2016, YoY growth in LC Offer simplification from 147 to 6 plans available in Mobile, convergence in Home 39.2% 31.6% 24.8% 1.9% 5.5% Mobile Home Fixed B2B MFS Service revenue Central American countries, Q1 2016, YoY growth in LC In app upselling, launch of Tigo Play and roll out across the footprint 24.7% 15.3% 16.2% 1.6% -2.1% Mobile Home Fixed B2B MFS Service revenue Page 11

12 2 Operational strategy execution progressing Our operational strategy execution is progressing App by app Smart pricing Prepaid in app upselling Watch content anytime, anywhere Page 12

13 Conclusion Simplified and focused strategic execution Rebalancing towards higher growth business segments On track on Full Year outlook Disciplined capital allocation Page 13

14 Financial review Tim Pennington 26 April 2016

15 Key Messages 1 Solid organic revenue growth 2 Strong margin improvement 3 Improved capital structure Page 15

16 Revenue by region Solid organic growth Revenue evolution by Region US$ million, Q Q Q1 organic growth 2.1% +2.1% -8.5% Latam: Paraguay rebound (190) Africa growth remains robust at +11.9% 1,670 1,704 Adverse FX impact, reported revenue down 8.5% 1,528 Q1 15 LatAm Africa Eliminations Underlying Q1 16 Zantel FX Q1 16 Page 16

17 Service revenue Service revenue growth mid-single digit Quarterly group organic service revenue growth Q1 15 Q % 5.4% 5.5% 5.7% 4.1% 5.7% -0.3% -0.3% -1.0% Cable -1.1% Mobile 0.1% 4.1% Q Q Q Q Q Q4 15 ex DRC Latam ex Africa Colombia Q1 16 Colombia Page 17

18 EBITDA EBITDA improvements driven by efficiency EBITDA evolution by Region US$ million, Q Q Adjusted EBITDA +7.0% organic % Latam +2.8% Outperformance from Colombia, Bolivia, Paraguay El Salvador decline due to topline pressure Africa +12.3% Corporate costs down for the seventh consecutive quarter One-offs charges $8 million ($7 million in Q1 15) Adjusted EBITDA Q1 15 LatAm Africa Corporate Underlying EBITDA Q1 16 Zantel FX Adjusted EBITDA Q1 16 FX impact mainly Colombia and Paraguay Page 18

19 EBITDA margin Positive contributions at all levels Adjusted EBITDA margin In % Adjusted EBITDA +1.8 percentage points Latam contribution 0.7 ppts (Bolivia, Colombia) Africa contributing 0.2 ppts (Ghana and Senegal offsetting Tanzania) Opex down 11.1% year-on-year on lower corporate costs, currency impact on costs and efficiency measures Q1 15 Latam Africa Corp. Costs Group excl. Zantel Zantel Group Adjusted EBITDA margin on service revenue up from 37.2% in Q1 15 (ex- DRC) to 38.5% Page 19

20 P&L review Adjusted net profits down on higher taxes US$ million Q1 16 Q1 15 % Var Revenue 1,528 1,670 (8) Adjusted EBITDA (4) D&A (303) A (330) (8) Operating profit Net Finance Charge (107) (117) (9) Others 14 B (72) N/M Associates (11) C (13) (18) Profit before tax N/M Tax (62) D (39) 60 Minority interests (39) (28) 41 Discontinued ops. 8 E (12) N/M Net income 43 (46) N/M A D&A reducing by 8% on currency devaluation Others includes $30 million of FX gains B C Negative one-off relative to HTA ($13 million) offsetting a positive one-off relative to AIH ($8 million) D Tax up $23 million on higher profitability from Colombia E DRC treated as discontinued operation, $8 million profit include a positive tax one-off Adjusted EPS * (42) * Adjusted for non-operating items including changes in carrying value of put and call options and similar items classified under other nonoperating income (expenses). Page 20

21 Q1 cash flow Capex catch-up from Q4 Q1 Cash flow US$ million High level of cash capex as catch-up from Q4 Adjusted EBITDA One-off charges EBITDA Cash Working Capex Capital (exspectrum & licence) 76 Cash OCF 38 Tax paid 92 Interest Paid -54 FCF 14 Dividends to minorities -68 EFCF 36.0% 5.0% -4.4% Working capital outflow in line with Q1 last year Tax paid $12 million lower year-onyear thanks to Colombia refund arising from overpayments Page 21

22 Net debt Net debt evolution US$ million, 31 December March 2016 Pro forma for DRC, net debt lower Proceeds from DRC received Refinancing of the SEK bond on improved terms (20bps lower) 4,295 4,419 Spectrum: final payment ($30 million) for LTE in Paraguay Net debt / LTM EBITDA of 2.04x 1.96x pro forma ex DRC Net debt 2015 Equity FCF Spectrum & licence DRC as discontinued op F/X & others Net debt Q1 16 Proportionate 2.36x Page 22

23 Debt profile Long average maturity to debt profile Debt maturity profile post recent refinancing a US$ million Average life of 5.8 years >2024 a) excluding financial leases Page 23

24 Cash flow model Impact of DRC disposal on operating leverage metrics FY 15 Group with DRC FY 15 Group without DRC Long Term targets Revenue growth (constant FX) 7.4% 7.1% High single digit Operating leverage 45.6% 47.5% ~50% EBITDA Margin (*) trending up towards 33.7% 34.4% ~35% Capex to Sales trending down towards 18.9% 19.0% ~15% OCF Margin trending up towards 14.8% 15.4% ~20% * Adjusted for one-offs Page 24

25 2016 Outlook Our cash flow model will keep improving in 2016 Service revenue to grow mid single digit (a) Adjusted EBITDA to grow mid to high single digit (b) Group CAPEX between $1.15 and $1.25 billion (c) Our 2016 outlook is in constant currency, at constant perimeter (with our JV in Guatemala and Honduras fully consolidated) a) Service revenue is group revenue excluding telephone & equipment sales b) Adjusted EBITDA excludes restructuring costs and other one-off items. c) Capex excludes the impact of spectrum and licences costs. Page 25

26 Q&A Page 26

27 Appendix Page 27

28 Appendix Below EBITDA Depreciation and amortisation Interest D&A Q1 15 Underlying FX D&A Q1 16 Interest Q1 15 Underlying FX Interest Q1 16 Tax Tax Q1 15 Underlying FX Tax Q1 16 Page 28

29 Gross debt by country Central America: Total debt $1,473m South America: Total debt $1,378m Africa: Total debt $535m Corporate: Total debt $2,015m Total MIC Debt a $5,402m Honduras: $383m Senegal: $17m Guatemala: $982m Chad: $114m El Salvador: $7m Ghana: $61m Costa Rica: $101m Rwanda: $131m Colombia $711m Tanzania: $213m b Bolivia: $252m Paraguay: $415m a) including finance leases b) Including Zantel Page 29

30 Currency exposure of the debt Mar-16 Debt including finance leases Cash Net debt US$ Local Total Total US$ Local Total Latin America 1,479 1,372 2, ,295 1,085 2,380 52% 48% 100% 54% 46% 100% Africa Corporate % 43% 100% 89% 11% 100% 2, , , , % 0% 100% 100% 0% 100% Millicom 3,802 1,600 5, ,299 1,120 4,419 70% 30% 100% 75% 25% 100% El Salvador has USD as functional currency (treated as local) Page 30