The London Plan. Sub-Regional Development Framework East London

Transcription

1 The London Plan Sub-Regional Development Framework East London May 2006

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3 The London Plan Sub-Regional Development Framework East London May 2006

4 copyright Greater London Authority May 2006 Published by Greater London Authority City Hall The Queen s Walk More London London SE1 2AA enquiries minicom ISBN This document is printed on recycled paper.

5 Foreword East London is my priority area for development, regeneration and infrastructure improvement. This SRDF brings together a wide range of data and information about East London. It suggests a range of actions that boroughs and others should take to help implement the London Plan. This SRDF includes snapshots of the potential of East London s thirteen Opportunity Areas and three Areas for Intensification. The scale of change that will come to East London over the next 20 years will be dramatic. The 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games and the development of East London as a whole will bring substantial benefits to the area in terms of transport, tourism, sports infrastructure and the economy. The Olympic Games themselves will set a high standard for development and help transform the image of East London as a place to live, work and visit. This Sub-Regional Development Framework places much emphasis on the need to coordinate the provision not only of new housing, but of transport infrastructure, schools and local shops, and new or enhanced green spaces. I am determined that new developments coming to East London should benefit the people of what has been one of the poorest parts of the United Kingdom for the last 150 years. Public consultation on Further Alterations to the London Plan will follow later during In those Alterations I will be proposing changes to the structure of London s sub regions. However, the information and data contained in this SRDF remains valuable and will form a part of any updated SRDFs. I would like to thank all those who have contributed to the drafting of this document and I look forward to further joint working on implementation. Ken Livingstone Mayor of London May

6 CONTENTS Page Introduction 3 Part One Identity and overall direction for East London 6 Part Two 1. Quantifying sustainable growth 16 A. Housing B. Employment and offices C. Retail D. Culture, leisure and tourism E. Social infrastructure F. Utility and infrastructure services G. Industry and warehousing 2. Allocating growth spatially across the sub-region 39 A. The Central Activities Zone B. East London Town Centre Network C. Opportunity Areas and Areas for Intensification D. Suburbs E. Industrial Locations F. Transport and accessibility 3. Ensuring development brings benefits to communities 65 A. Promoting social inclusion B. Access to employment 4. Ensuring development improves the environment 69 A. Conservation, design and the public realm B. Sustainable design, construction and energy C. Air quality and noise D. Open space E. Wildlife and biodiversity F. The Blue Ribbon Network 5. Managing the development tools and processes 77 A. Densities B. Housing mix C. Mixed use and changes of use D. Tall buildings E. Further information Annexes 1. Town centres 2. Opportunity Areas, Areas for Intensification and Strategic Employment Locations 3. Indicative Phasing of East London Transport Schemes 4. Detailed tables, maps and figures 5. Implications for Local Development Frameworks and further Alterations to the London Plan 2

7 EAST LONDON SUB-REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT FRAMEWORK Introduction 1. This Sub-Regional Development Framework (SRDF) covers the East London subregion, which is made up of the City of London and the nine boroughs of Hackney, Tower Hamlets, Newham, Barking and Dagenham, Havering, Redbridge, Lewisham, Greenwich and Bexley. This sub-region also includes part of the Central Activities Zone (CAZ). The purpose of this SRDF, in line with PPS12, is to provide guidance on the implementation of policies in the London Plan in order to help deliver a sustainable and prosperous future for the sub-region. 2. This SRDF for East London is in two parts. Both parts are based upon the statutory policies of the London Plan, especially those for East London in Policy 5C.1-3. Consultation was undertaken in 2005 and a total of 120 responses were received. This final SRDF addresses the issues that were raised through the consultation and retains the general material and function of the draft SRDF which was supported through the consultation process. 3. Part One sets out an overall direction for the sub-region. Part Two looks at implementation. In particular it quantifies the various impacts of the growth that is projected to take place in the sub-region and proposes how it can be accommodated in the right place, at the right time and in a sustainable way. It is clear that this will be an ongoing process that will require further discussions to understand existing issues and to adjust to future changes or opportunities. 4. The SRDF sets out 60 actions that are designed to achieve this - in line with the proposed direction for the sub-region described in Part One. Each one is designed to do one of two things. First, to give a direct steer on the sub-regional implementation of the strategic policies in the London Plan. Second, to provide guidance on, and a checklist of, matters that need to be developed in an integrated way at the local level (through LDFs and planning frameworks) in order to ensure a co-ordinated approach in drawing out the strengths of the sub-region. 5. The Mayor, the Thames Gateway London Partnership, the boroughs and other partners are committed to genuine partnerships and have worked together to engage with a wide variety of stakeholders in the sub-region. The London Development Agency (LDA) is working with partners to develop a sub-regional economic development implementation plan (SREDIP) to target the sub-region s labour market issues, business support needs and economic development requirements. Transport for London (TfL) has been actively involved in the preparation of the SRDF and will be preparing sub-regional Network Plans setting out more detail. The Mayor is committed to ensuring the proper synergy between these processes and the SRDF is seen as the place where the relationships are brought together. 3

8 Diagram 1: Sub-Regional Implementation and Links with Mayoral Strategies 6. The sub-regions in London have strong interactions and the need to approach boundaries in a permeable way is acknowledged by this SRDF. There are links with Central, North, South and West London. East London also has a strong relationship with Kent and Essex and especially the wider Thames Gateway area. The City of London, Tower Hamlets and Hackney stress that in varying degrees their functions and futures are as part of central London as a whole. This SRDF and that for Central London recognise this by incorporating a section (2A), which is common to both SRDFs that addresses the Central Activities Zone as an entity. 7. As indicated in London Plan policy 5A.1 and paragraph 5.5, the SRDFs provide non-statutory guidance on implementation of London Plan policies in light of sub-regional circumstances. The SRDF is not a mini London Plan and does not usurp, supersede or otherwise change the Plan s policies. New information is included only as best planning practice to secure and inform implementation of existing, published policy. Ordnance Survey type maps underlying the indicative working boundaries for Opportunity and Intensification Areas and Strategic Employment Locations have been used in Annex 2 for the same purpose. These boundaries are not definitive but only a consistent starting point for informed discussion and engagement it is acknowledged that some have already been changed as the London Plan has been implemented and that many others will change as implementation proceeds. 4

9 8. The SRDF s various actions derive from London Plan policies. The SRDF is not considered to be an SPG or SPD or to have equivalent status in the terms of PPS 12, though it does reflect the sub-regional approach to implementing regional policy outlined in PPS 11 (acknowledging that this applies outside London). However, in being issued by a key statutory strategic partner, the Mayor of London, following three months of consultation, it will be a material consideration for stakeholders. The materiality of individual actions will vary depending on their relationship with London Plan policies. In itself the SRDF does not bear on the issue of general conformity of UDPs/LDFs with the London Plan but it may serve as a convenient illustration of how the two can complement each other. 9. The SRDF preparation process provided a convenient opportunity, but no more to identify issues which might be addressed in the London Plan review or LDFs. This does not constitute promulgation of new policy. Annex 5 outlines possible issues for discussion during the review process and should not be considered as an integral part of the SRDF, even though many of the issues within it derive directly from London Plan paragraphs or other parts of that document. 10. Chapter 6 of the London Plan established a monitoring process to evaluate progress on implementation. The Annual Monitoring Report (AMR) are produced each February and future AMRs will summarise progress for each of the SRDFs with a particular focus on the actions identified. The revision of the London Plan, the LDFs and the updating of other plans and strategies will provide the opportunities to amend policy in the light of the results of this monitoring. 11. The SRDF has been tested through an Integrated Impact Assessment (IIA) to ensure that it is sustainable, equitable and contributes to the health of Londoners. The draft has been amended to take into account the findings of the IIA. 12. Following consultation the SRDF has been amended to focus more clearly on specific actions and activities essential to implementing the London Plan. It also recognises that this implementation process is necessarily an on-going process that will evolve over time. Considerable updating has also taken place on some of the data although it is recognised that this too will need further updating. It is the Mayor s intention that the SRDF process will continue as ongoing liaison and collaborative working between many organisations. This will still be the case even if the SRDF boundaries change through the review of the London Plan. 5

10 Part One Identity and overall direction for East London 13. East London occupies a critical position in the overall structure of London and is singled out as the focus for development in the London Plan. Thames Gateway is the largest regeneration area in the country, and the London part of the Gateway is set to accommodate around 250,000 additional jobs and perhaps 140,000 homes by It is linked to the powerful sub-region of Central London which is expected to accommodate around 240,000 additional jobs and 140,000 additional homes. East London also has strong ties with the London-Stansted-Cambridge- Peterborough corridor and the rest of the Thames Gateway area beyond London s boundaries. 14. The staging of the 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games in London will bring substantial benefits for much of East London including transport, tourism, sports development infrastructure and the economy. The construction programme will create many job opportunities for East London residents and the sub-region will benefit from access to world class sporting facilities, open spaces and new homes after the 2012 Games as part of the Olympics legacy. The Games themselves and the legacy will be setting the standard and help transform the image of East London as a place to live, work and visit. 15. With the development of Canary Wharf, substantial housing development, the international passenger station at Stratford and a raft of other public transport improvements, the economic centre of gravity of London is moving east. This SRDF aims to secure and build upon that diversification of London s offer whilst addressing the needs of the sub-region itself. 16. In 2001, about 2 million people lived in the East sub-region. It is facing major opportunities for change and regeneration in the most critical period of its recent history. These changes include the impetus generated by the 2012 Olympic Games, the continuing development of the City, the Isle of Dogs, Stratford, and the Greenwich peninsula, together with the Central Activities Zone (CAZ), 13 Opportunity Areas, 3 Intensification Areas, 2 Metropolitan and 9 Major town centres as well as many suburban areas across the sub-region. There are substantial Areas for Regeneration and there is a wide range of ethnic communities characteristic of the inner parts of a world city. It also has a distinct, younger age profile, a tendency towards larger households, a high degree of social mobility, and a strong polarisation in wealth distribution with local pockets of considerable affluence as well as 3 of the 10 most deprived authorities in the country. 17. Many parts of East London have experienced strong growth in both population and employment in the last fifteen years. The sub-region will continue to grow significantly up to 2020, the end of the London Plan period, and beyond. The Plan expected it to accommodate 32% of the increase in London s population and 39% of the employment growth. Its ability to accommodate this rests on the availability of some of the largest development sites in Europe, government commitment and a growing self-confidence. It is however also predicated on the provision of essential infrastructure. 6

11 Diagram 2 Source: London Plan,

12 Vision for East London 18. By 2020, the aim is for East London and the London Thames Gateway to be a new kind of exemplary, sustainable world class urban quarter, avoiding the mistakes of new town and other past development policies. It should be built around making the most of London s unique diversity and capable of being held up as a beacon of international best practice. It will become a major destination of choice for both living and working, with a balanced and well designed housing stock, a range of job opportunities, excellent social and cultural infrastructure, a much enhanced image and environment incorporating the Green Grid concept and good connections locally within the sub-region, to the rest of London, South East England and Europe. The sub-region will embrace the opportunities for new strategic development and use this growth, and the leverage it brings for government investment, to improve the urban structure and the level of urban services for existing residents and business as well as accommodating new communities. 19. Growth will be led in phases by the following expected timing of major developments: x The opening of the 20,000 seat O2 arena (due to open in 2007) x The build up and hosting of the Olympic and Paralympic Games ( ) x The extension of the DLR to Woolwich (2008) x Increased frequency and hence capacity of the Jubilee Line (2009) x Further developments towards the end of the planning period (2016) including: opening of the Thames Gateway Bridge; proposals to extend the DLR to Barking and Dagenham; Silvertown link; and Crossrail 1. This timing will mean that the first priority will be to ensure that Lower Lea Valley and Stratford City take advantage of the opportunities offered by the build up to and legacy of the Olympic Games. In general, developments will be expected to occur more predominantly in the western half of the East London Thames Gateway (west of Connaught Bridge), where existing transport links will be better developed, than in the eastern half. 20. The London Plan projects a surplus of jobs over new economically active population in East London and seeks to provide enhanced transport links and skills-training so that local residents across the sub-region benefit. Jobs growth across the sub-region related to business and financial services, education, construction, retail and health will benefit existing and new residents. 21. Investment in upgrading the quantity and quality of the housing stock for the social, intermediate and market sectors will increase with commensurate decreases in waiting lists for desirable social sector housing. Higher density, better designed stock, more balanced and integrated communities will support higher quality social investment in affordable housing, transport, social infrastructure and public realm. In the longer term, East London will shift to a more balanced residential mix with a large increase in lifetime homes, wheelchair accessible homes and homes with very high energy, recycling and water conservation standards. Growth will be accommodated by optimising the use of previously developed land and vacant or under-used buildings and there will be significant increases in the quality of metropolitan open space led by the enormous improvements now programmed in 8

13 the Lower Lea. Waste recycling and sustainable disposal will be designed to be exemplar. 22. Large development proposals, often with significant public sector partnership and equity participation, will be encouraged to deliver high quality and excellently designed development, social infrastructure and public realm improvements to benefit a wide area. The aim is to create stable, multi-cultural, mixed income communities and neighbourhoods which residents can relate to. This will take time and effort to achieve. Exemplar lead developments such as the Olympics, Greenwich Peninsula, Barking Riverside and Stratford City should demonstrate the benefits of higher sustainability standards and quality of design and their application for all future developments and will assist in transforming the image of East London as a high quality place to live and work. 23. New residential communities will be centred around new and existing public transport, in many cases building out from existing well served locations. At a local level the emphasis will be on walk to facilities and a diversity of daily environmental experience and lifestyles. Wherever possible, primary schools will be placed in the centre of the new communities linked to the park system to help create safe routes to schools and a community focus. Other social infrastructure will be provided and located in a way that creates a physical sense of community and encourages mixing and interaction between all races and income groups. Multi-functional health and social service reception facilities will increasingly be located in the town centres. 24. On transport, East London will shift from an over reliance on the car to more sustainable modes including public transport, cycling and walking. Most of the trip growth necessary due to increased population and economic activity will be made by public transport in the longer term and there will be efficient transport for freight and business. Massive investment in public transport quality and capacity, combined with appropriate measures to manage the demand for private vehicles, can help create this virtuous outcome. Many transport improvements are already under construction, committed or seeking powers including extensions to the East London Line, Channel Tunnel Rail Link stopping at Stratford, DLR to City Airport and Woolwich, upgrades to the Jubilee Line, a Thames Gateway Multi-modal bridge, Crossrail and the East London Transit. Commitment to these and other transport upgrades will transform connections to, from and within East London. 25. All growth will be on brownfield land, exceeding even the most aspirational national targets. A vision to create in East London a network of open spaces, parks and river/canal side walkways is known as the East London Green Grid 49. These will link people to practical places such as work, schools shops and services. There will be significant increases in open space, led by the enormous improvements now programmed in the Lower Lea Valley. Urban drainage should be integrated in such a way that it too is sustainably designed. Flood protection should rely less on hard river walls and more on a natural interface with additional flood storage capacity, flood resistant design and more riparian ecological diversity near the river edge. Energy and waste conservation and sustainable energy generation will be to the highest standards. Waste recycling and sustainable waste management will be designed to be exemplar. The Olympics and Greenwich Peninsula developments are leading the way but these new 9

14 aspirational standards will ripple out through other development in East London for new communities and, where practical, be retrofitted for existing communities. Sub-regional and inter-regional linkages 26. Linkages between East London and the Thames Gateway beyond London have been developed both by government and during preparation of the London Plan. An inter-regional planning statement on the Thames Gateway has been prepared and further work through the Inter-Regional Planning Forum is necessary to identify the extent of economic linkages between both areas. 27. The East of England Regional Assembly (EERA) has published a draft plan for the East of England 1 with the Examination in Public concluded in early March The South East of England Regional Assembly (SEERA) has published the draft South East Plan 2 and submitted it to government on 31 st March This underscores the importance of joint working to maximise the potential of interregional linkages and to address other cross boundary issues such as inter-regional migration, labour market, commuting (especially reverse commuting), car parking standards, freight, logistics (including access to jobs created at Shellhaven and North Dartford), housing including affordable housing, Green Belt, retailing (especially Bluewater and Lakeside) and waste. 28. There is a particular need for seamless local and strategic planning with adjoining authorities (Dartford and Thurrock) in the Thames Gateway. This should set proposals for significant office development in the context of the wider office market, especially proposals for Stratford. The boroughs of Hackney and Redbridge are part of the London-Stansted-Cambridge-Peterborough Growth Area. Ensuring appropriate development that meets both strategic and local needs in all of these diverse areas will present particular challenges and require effective partnership between a range of organisations including TGLP, boroughs, GLA, LDA, TfL, ALG, ODPM and the East and South East of England Regions. Diagram 3: East London in its strategic context 10

15 People and their Communities 29. Most of the sub-region will see significant increases in the younger (0-17) and older age groups (over 65). This will have implications for health, education and other services. For example more secondary schools will be needed, especially after 2011, and a substantial number of new primary schools. 30. Ethnic diversity across the East sub-region as a whole is similar to Greater London. However the spatial distribution within the sub-region gives a very different picture (see Diagram 4). There are high percentages of ethnic communities in the inner boroughs, namely Newham, Hackney and Tower Hamlets and high proportions of white populations resident in the outer boroughs such as in Barking and Dagenham and Havering There are concentrations of ethnic communities with distinctive character: for example, the Chinese community in Woolwich Common, Evelyn, Beckton and Millwall, the Black Caribbean community in Kings Park, Rushey Green and Forest Gate North, Black African in Evelyn, Gascoigne, Thamesmead East, Thamesmead Moorings and Kings Park, Indian communities in Seven Kings, East Ham North and Plumstead and Pakistani communities in Abbey, East Ham North and Clementswood and the Bangladeshi community notably in Spitalfields and Banglatown, Green Street West with smaller communities in Haggerston, Redbridge and the City of London. It is expected that these patterns will change over time, not least in response to new housing opportunities. 32. East London also has significant areas of deprivation. Some of the large social housing estates feature in the estates renewal programme. They are characterised by isolation and need co-ordinated programmes of improved public transport, skills development, capacity building and environmental improvement. The growth that East London will experience offers an exceptional opportunity to address these problems. Much of the population growth will be accommodated in wards with considerable existing deprivation. 33. Conversely many communities in East London are relatively prosperous and enjoy good services and environments. A realistic aspiration is to make more of the subregion an area of choice for living. This will mean strengthening some local economies and services and addressing some issues of image which still affect large areas of East London. 34. East London has significant levels of unemployment with three boroughs higher than 10%, or roughly twice the English average: with Hackney 16.4%, Newham 13.5% and Tower Hamlets at 11.8% 4. This reinforces the fact that skills development is critical to the job prospects of the sub-region s population. 11

16 Diagram 4 12

17 35. The demands of growth and the need to remedy current deficiencies will mean that many community services will require space for expansion. More people and workers will mean more health services, more schools, expanded further and higher education, more utility services and growing demand for open space, leisure, sport and cultural activities. These will need to be located as far as possible in places with good accessibility by public transport, and especially in town centres and Opportunity Areas. 36. Accommodating this growth in services will also provide the opportunity to address existing gaps and deficiencies. In preparing implementation plans it will be important for the boroughs to seek wherever possible to integrate solutions to current problems with provision for growth. Critical Issues 37. Growth and change will accentuate the differences between the three main roles that East London plays: x Firstly, inner East London has a world city role a centre of international and national activities. These functions are largely concentrated in the City and its fringes, the Isle of Dogs and, looking to the future, Stratford. x Second, East London contains many relatively local activities, including distinctive residential communities, town centres and local and small businesses. The residential areas include large Areas for Regeneration. x Third, East London contains a large number of London s Opportunity Areas where there is significant scope to meet regional needs for housing and employment and environmental sustainability. 38. It will be essential to support the functions and develop the identities of both the world city and the local sets of activities and to manage the interrelationship between them. For example, local communities and small businesses may be under pressure from competitive higher value world city uses, but they often provide the labour and services that are essential to these uses. These tensions are especially significant in the fringe areas around the boundaries of the CAZ, which are outlined in this Framework. Design must recognise the need for a fine mix of uses and positive relationships between activities. 39. The 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games will drive change at an unprecedented pace, particularly in the Lower Lea and will complement an accelerated regeneration agenda for the whole of the Thames Gateway, East London and other parts of the capital. It will require a sophisticated planning response, which will open up unique opportunities and challenges. 40. Other distinctive strategic issues facing East London include: (i) It is a unique focus of national regeneration priorities under government s Sustainable Communities Plan: Thames Gateway and London-Stansted-Cambridge-Peterborough Corridor, with Stratford and the Lower Lea Valley acting as the fulcrum between the two; 13

18 (ii) London s biggest reservoir of brownfield development capacity and largest number of Opportunity/Intensification Areas; (iii) Realisation of development capacity and sustainable regeneration of Opportunity Areas is particularly dependent on transport investment including new north-south cross river linkages by both rail and road; (iv) London s only Urban Development Corporation, the London Thames Gateway Development Corporation (LTGDC), covering London Riverside and Lower Lea Valley. The LTGDC will be a key player in the regeneration of this significant part of East London; (v) The need to manage flood risk, particularly of tidal flooding and plan carefully for environmental infrastructure including water resources and sewage; (vi) Particular mismatches between current strategic and local provision for employment growth, likely future demand and the need for geographic reconciliation of this which is much more significant than in other sub-regions; (vii) The biggest concentration of industrial type activities in London, with distinct need to create the environment which will retain and attract those which are viable and require a London location, particularly but not exclusively in the outer part of the sub-region; (viii) Particular capacity and attractions for logistics to meet strategic needs, together with transport links to further capacity in Dartford and Thurrock; (ix) A particular need for sensitive industrial re-location arrangements both within the sub-region and from its neighbours, especially Central London; (x) By far the greatest scope to release industrial land to other uses, posing unique management challenges; (xi) Special need for selective reconciliation of these mismatches with other land use priorities, especially housing; (xii) In view of the scale of proposed development, a particular need to secure adequate social infrastructure and to integrate existing and new communities and secure community engagement and support for the SRDF guidance; (xiii) Distinct need for reconciliation of local and strategic housing needs in terms of both dwelling size and tenure; (xiv) Significant residential growth which will lead to in-migration from other parts of London to new market, intermediate and social housing; (xv) Distinct combination of low value uses, historic heritage of brownfield/dereliction and subdued topography leading to degraded environment and poor image; (xvi) Prominent historic roles in managing London s waste, supplying high volume material needs and providing minerals which raise tensions with the requirement to re-brand the image of the sub-region and also address challenges posed by new expressions of these roles; (xvii) Many of London s protected wharves, providing opportunities for new river related activities and challenges in realising uplifts in development capacity/value generated; (xviii) Distinct need for open space and innovative approaches to management and provision including the Green Grid; (xix) Relatively recent development of car based out of centre retail capacity: need to make more sustainable in light of overall Plan objectives. 14

19 41. Most of these have spatial implications. At the core of the vision for the future of the East London sub-region is the concept that all parts of the sub-region must benefit from growth and change. This can only be achieved by a sensitive yet determined approach to the development of the Opportunity Areas and town centres as well as the finer grained renewal of some existing suburban and commercial areas so that they play not just to their own strengths, but to the benefit of the sub-region as a whole. Great emphasis is put on this throughout this SRDF. Part One Action (i) The Mayor, Thames Gateway London Partnership and other stakeholders should ensure regular liaison with stakeholders in the East and South East regions where there are shared interests in relation to East London. (ii) Key stakeholders should work together to deliver the targets, commitments and investment that this SRDF identifies as necessary to ensure that East London develops sustainably. The details given in this SRDF will continue to be discussed at the appropriate sub-regional level. 15

20 Part Two 42. In order to ensure the appropriate implementation of the London Plan at the sub-regional level, and to secure the direction for East London set out in Part One, a series of issues and related actions needs to be addressed. They are best summarised under five headings. 1. Quantifying all the elements of growth needed to develop sustainable communities. 2. Allocating the growth spatially on the basis of new infrastructure investment. 3. Ensuring the resultant development brings benefit to communities. 4. Ensuring the development improves the environment. 5. Managing the development tools and processes. 43. Throughout this document the emphasis is on implementing the London Plan. It therefore concentrates on accommodating growth but, as the London Plan acknowledges, there are many other actions needed to deal with existing issues and problems, for example overcrowding, the poor quality of much existing housing and lack of facilities. The guidance in this SRDF will have to be developed sensitively at the local level to complement policies designed to deal with such issues. Section 1. Quantifying Sustainable Growth. 44. This section considers the amount and nature of growth to be accommodated in the sub-region in the period up to The spatial implications of its potential location are considered in Section In preparing the SRDFs considerable research was undertaken, often with partners, to assess the full impact of growth in each of the sub-regions. This work covered a wide range of potential users of land and attempted to balance the information on demand with known supply and capacity. More detail is given in the appendices, but the overall conclusions for East London cover the following: A. Housing. Current performance is significantly above target. The new targets in the Alterations to the London Plan set a significant challenge as they represent a doubling of the current target or a 50% increase on current output levels. They need to be reconciled with the need to support balanced, sustainable communities. B. Employment and offices. To achieve the Plan s employment objectives, office demand and development capacity need to be reconciled more effectively, ensuring that surplus land is used to achieve broader objectives and priorities, especially housing. C. Retail. Effectively and pro-actively planned, strong retail growth will be a major driver of town centre regeneration and, incorporated in mixed use development, provide opportunities to address other priorities including housing. D. Culture, leisure and tourism. Growth in these sectors, if sensitively managed and integrated with other uses, will also be a significant 16

21 component of town centre renewal and the regeneration of Opportunity Areas. E. Social infrastructure. Accommodating demand for health, education, social and community infrastructure including open space will need early identification in development frameworks. F. Utility and infrastructure services. These include utilities and facilities for waste management and will need planned integration by a number of partners to achieve sustainable development. G. Industry and warehousing. There is considerable scope for the release of industrial land, but this will need careful management across the subregion as a whole to meet changing industrial and other land use priorities. 46. Within that broad set of conclusions, there are a number of issues that need to be addressed in this SRDF. 1A. Housing 47. The population of East London is projected to grow. The London Plan estimated growth by 233,000 to 2.24 million by 2016, an annual rate of growth of 16,640. The latest GLA projections which incorporate the findings of the 2004 London Housing Capacity Study 5 increase the 2016 projection to 2,356,200. This represents an increase of 368,300 on the 2001 base or 24,550 a year. Recent growth has been especially strong in Greenwich, Newham and Tower Hamlets, and these boroughs are likely to continue to be the areas of greatest population growth over the next 10 years. Growth will continue and in particular there will be a significant increase in the number of in-migrants and an increase in the proportion of younger people. 48. The large amount of growth allocated to East London in the London Plan, the availability of large sites in the sub-region and the large areas with potential for intensification all give rise to a particular set of issues for this SRDF. The particular requirements for affordable housing, the special needs for larger homes, the critical relationship with infrastructure and density and the role of social landlords are additional important issues with a sub-regional flavour. 49. The London Plan proposes a minimum increase of 142,300 homes in the subregion from (Table 1A.1 in Annex 4). Alterations to the London Plan proposed for consideration at the Examination in Public in June 2006 are set out in Table 1A.2, Annex 4). Monitoring returns show that actual provision has in fact exceeded the London Plan target by 148% across the sub-region, over the last two years (Table 1A.3 in Annex 4). Performance has been above or on target in all boroughs except Lewisham. The development pipeline is extensive (see Table 1A.4, Annex 4). 50. Since the Plan was prepared more detailed assessments have indicated that the sub- region s Opportunity and Intensification Areas have capacity to accommodate further homes. This was fed into the new Housing Capacity Study, which was published in July 2005 and was a key input to the Alterations to the London Plan. 51. Hackney and Tower Hamlets have significantly higher proportions of existing social housing than the other boroughs in the sub-region, with Greenwich, Lewisham, Newham and Barking and Dagenham also being above the London 17

22 average of 25%. Bexley, Havering and Redbridge have low proportions of social housing. 52. Of the boroughs in the sub-region, only Hackney has adopted the London Plan 50% London-wide target, though this is also being considered by Tower Hamlets. Overall, only 28% of net outturn in 2004/5 in East London was affordable housing (see Table 1A.5, Annex 4). 53. Increasing proportionate affordable housing outputs in boroughs with low proportions of social housing stock, such as Bexley, Havering and Redbridge, is critical to the objective of achieving a better balance of housing provision across the sub-region as a whole. Additional guidance is given in the SPG on Housing 6. Linked to this tension is the continuing need for London to maintain some areas that are able to receive newcomers to the capital and help its longterm regeneration. 54. The London Plan recognises that in setting targets for affordable housing boroughs must take account of regional need and that in some East London boroughs the provision of 50% affordable housing is more difficult in financial terms than in other boroughs. However this demonstrates a need for greater levels of investment subsidy, rather than justifying lower affordable housing targets. 55. These considerations collectively give rise to the first key issue, which is how to build on recent performance and to deliver new homes at higher and sustained rates, particularly for affordable housing. Issues relating to housing density and mix are discussed in Sections 5A and 5B of this SRDF respectively. Action 1A Partners should bring forward development frameworks for key sites maximising the potential of improvements to public transport infrastructure, building in the need for social and other infrastructure, setting minimum standards for higher densities and specifying appropriate housing size mix and mixed use priorities. (See also Sections 1E, 1F and 5). 1B. Employment and Offices 56. In 2001 it was estimated that there were 1.1 million jobs in East London and that the financial and business services sectors dominated the sub-regional profile (430,000). The public administration, health and education sectors, usually the most important in sub-regions outside Central London, were still significant but accounted for only 190,000 jobs (Figures 1B.1, 1B.2, Annex 4). 57. In the London Plan total employment in East London was projected to grow by 249,000 or 23% of the London total. 90% of these jobs were expected to be in the office sector, almost all of them in the City, City Fringe and the Isle of Dogs. Conversely, the industrial sectors were expected to face a net loss of 11,000 jobs and the other activities to generate an extra 36,000 jobs. 58. These projections are currently being revised to take account of new data based upon an assessment of structural trends, development capacity and 18

23 accessibility 7. These suggest that total employment growth could be less (201,000) than that projected for the London Plan (249,000) (See Annex 4, Table 1B.3). This reduction can be explained partly by the fact that in 2001, employment levels in London were above the trend rate of growth and partly by a reduction in the London-wide employment growth projection to Unemployment is higher than the London average and skills development is critical to the job prospects of the sub-region s population. There are areas with high levels of unemployment and economic inactivity and average earnings and productivity are lower than other parts of London, see also Section Compared to the other sub-regions, the East London economy is particularly complex. For planning purposes it has four distinct strands: (i) (ii) Parts of the CAZ office market area. Some elements of a new, more distinct East London economy. The creative, green, leisure and information and science based sectors fall partly into this category. (iii) East London manufacturing and distribution activities, some of which represent the remains of what was once a distinctive sub-regional economy. (iv) Other, mainly locally based goods and service production activities. 61. This fragmentation is further complicated by East London being a far from self-contained sub-regional labour market. Of the sub-regional workforce in 2001, 27% come from other parts of London and 21% from outside London the lowest level of self containment outside Central London (see Figure 1B.4, Annex 4). A recent study into commuter flows in London and the wider South East 8 forecasts an increase in the number of rail commuters from the Thames Gateway and Essex, principally to the Central Activities Zone and the Isle of Dogs. Sectors such as health and education offer a wide range of jobs in most localities which can reduce the need for long-distance commuting. 62. This has implications for investment in skills and training to meet new demands and the needs of existing residents as well as to upgrade the image of the sub-region as a place to live and work for skilled workers to secure more balanced and sustainable communities. Quality housing can attract skilled workers and in turn act as a magnet for knowledge sector employment to the sub-region. There will be some scope, though modest in scale, for local employment, particularly in town centres and through local inward investment initiatives complemented by business support and marketing measures (See also Section 3 and the role of Sub-Regional Economic Development Implementation Plans). 63. There are more than 78,000 workplaces (a proxy for businesses) recorded in East London. Though slightly less important than in London as a whole, small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) dominate the sub-region s business structure. In 2002, pay-points with less than 200 employees accounted for 99% of the total and 61% of employment. Those with less than 11 employees accounted for 85% of pay-points and 18% of employment. Some SME s perform important roles in servicing the wider London economy including 19

24 Central London as well as meeting essential local needs and being important for job creation. They can provide opportunities for those who might otherwise have difficulty in gaining access to the active labour market. Provision for SMEs is particularly susceptible to the strong pressures for land use change facing East London. This includes pressures for comprehensive redevelopment and also the need to accommodate SMEs serving Central London that are unable to find affordable premises in the tightly constrained Central London land market. 64. Black and Minority Ethnic businesses are also an important element of the East London economy. This is true not just for the well known clusters of shops and restaurants for example in Brick Lane and Green Street, but throughout the economy and often concentrated in growth sectors such as information technology. The opportunity to build on this strength and to expand the potential for international trade needs to be developed. 65. Monitoring suggests that, in aggregate, most sub-regions outside Central London have made more provision for economic activity than is realistically necessary to meet future demand. This appears to apply particularly to East London. On the basis of a broad brush assessment for the London Plan 9, East London as a whole had far more development capacity - for 370,000 extra jobs, than likely demand, at 249,000 jobs. These capacity estimates are in the process of being updated for the review of the London Plan. 66. Echoing the general mismatch between demand and supply of employment capacity, independent consultants 10 report that from a simple statistical standpoint, the East London Sub-Region already has sufficient office development capacity to meet projected demand to Development pipeline monitoring returns show that at the end of 2003 the City of London, Tower Hamlets and Newham alone had a potential gain to stock of 37 million sq ft against demand for 39 million sq ft projected for whole sub-region between 2001 and The results of the latest London Office Policy Review expected for publication in 2006 will provide a valuable strategic update and overview. Initial emerging results from LOPR 2006 suggest that the central London office market has moved from generalised oversupply, low demand and low or falling rents at the end of 2003 to localised undersupply, rising demand and selective rental growth for the best quality space. 67. In common with other outer sub-regions, the suburban office market generally in East London faces major structural challenges. Some of the forces which originally drove and sustained it are waning. The spatial implications of this are covered in Section 2. 20

25 Action 1B (i) In partnership with the LDA, boroughs are asked to facilitate the implementation of the Mayor s Economic Development Strategy through the East London Sub-Regional Economic Development Implementation Plan (SREDIP). (ii) The Mayor will work with the LDA, boroughs and other stakeholders to encourage the market to provide and enhance viable, affordable provision for SMEs in appropriate locations and through the Sub-Regional Economic Development Implementation Plan, to meet their specific needs for business support and training (see also Section 3). (iii) The Mayor will continue to analyse the London wide office market. Boroughs and other stakeholders are encouraged to supplement this through subregional office market analysis. (iv) Boroughs through LDFs are encouraged to promote the consolidation and rejuvenation of the sub-regional office market in appropriate, viable locations and achieve wider planning objectives including town centre renewal and increased housing provision (see also Section 5). 1C. Retail 68. In East London, population and consumer expenditure growth is generating significant need for new retail space, in particular for comparison goods 11. Resident-based consumer expenditure in the sub-region is expected to increase by almost 50% between 2001 and Comparison goods expenditure could double from 4.2bn to 8.6bn and convenience goods 12 expenditure is expected to increase but at a more modest rate of about 37% from 2.8bn to 3.8bn. 69. According to the strategic trend based assessment 13, there may be a need for an extra 120,000sqm to 204,000sqm of comparison goods floorspace in East London between (see Annex 4, Table 1C.1). 70. This assessment takes into account a number of strategically significant comparison goods developments already proposed in the sub-region 14. The largest of these include 143,000 sqm at Stratford, 31,000sqm at Greenwich and a further 14,500 sqm proposed at Lewisham. Other major comparison goods developments in the pipeline outside the sub-region but with a significant potential impact on East London include proposals for Brent Cross, Kings Cross, Elephant & Castle and Surrey Quays (see Annex 4, Table 1C.3). 71. In East London it is estimated that between 28,000 sqm and 77,000 sqm of additional convenience space could be required by (see Annex 4, Table 1C.2). However, this does not take into account convenience goods proposals in the pipeline and in East London it is estimated that there are current proposals amounting to 59,000 sqm in total. The larger of the known convenience proposals in the sub-region include schemes at the Dolphin site in Havering, Stratford and Barking Riverside. 21

26 72. About 20% of this convenience goods pipeline estimate is in out of centre locations, well below the London average of 27%. To implement London Plan policies 3D.1 and 3D.2 which encourage new retail development in town centres as a first priority, stakeholders are invited to explore potential capacity within centres and especially (although not exclusively) District centres which are particularly accessible to residents by sustainable modes of transport. 73. Whilst these estimates are the best available at the sub-regional level, they need to treated with caution. Using their own local need assessments, boroughs are encouraged to undertake fine grained assessments of need for new convenience floorspace taking into account qualitative need including the complexion of the existing retail offer, under/over-trading, accessibility and the potential for improvement of out-moded existing convenience floorspace. Action 1C (i) When making provision for anticipated retail demand in Local Development Frameworks, boroughs are encouraged to undertake fine grained assessments of need and capacity taking into account the indicative sub-regional and borough need for new comparison and convenience goods retail floorspace to 2016 in Annex 4, Table 1C.1 and 1C.2. (ii) Boroughs are asked to verify the pipeline of convenience goods floorspace, including the strategically significant proposals in Annex 4, Table 1C.3 and consider these in light of local assessments of need and the sequential test. (iii) The Mayor will continue to work with boroughs and other stakeholders to consider areas where reconciliation of retail need and capacity requires coordination between the East sub-region and its neighbours including those beyond the London boundary, including Thurrock and Blue Water. 1D. Culture, Leisure and Tourism 74. Culture, leisure and tourism provide important services and employment for Londoners and the wider south east as well as being an important part of London s world city role. They are intrinsically linked and increasing in importance as disposable incomes grow and can contribute to town centre renewal. Residents leisure spend per capita in the sub-region, while significant, is the lowest in London, spending 30% less than the London average on recreational and sporting services, and 17-19% less on cultural services, dining and drinking (Table 1D.1, Annex 4). 75. Although cultural provision is generally under-developed in East London 16, specialist cultural clusters have emerged in the City Fringe, Deptford, Hackney and Stratford as well as those associated with London s diverse communities in areas such as Brick Lane, Green Street and East Ham, which attract visitors from across London and beyond. Recent developments, such as the Laban Dance Centre are having a positive impact in some parts of the sub-region. East London is also the home to many cultural celebrations including local Melas, Respect Festival and Pride. Strategic provision is being complemented by more local cultural and leisure facilities as an integral part of the life of sustainable communities such as those at Hornchurch. The Mayor s Culture 22