CEE Economic Data Economics, FI/FX & Commodities Research Credit Research Equity Research Cross Asset Research
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1 CEE Economic Data Economics, FI/FX & Commodities Research Credit Research Equity Research Cross Asset Research Issue
2 Your Leading Banking Partner in Central and Eastern Europe UniCredit Research page 2 See last pages for disclaimer.
3 Contents Bosnia and Herzegovina Bosna i Herceg ovina Bulgaria България Croatia Hrvatska Czech Republic Česká republika Estonia Eesti Hungary Magyarország Kazakhstan Қазақстан Latvia Latvija Lithuania Lietuva Poland Polska Romania România Russia Россия Serbia Srbija Slovakia Slovensko Slovenia Slovenija Turkey Türkiye Ukraine Україна Euro zone Euroland Austria Österreich Germany Deutschland Italy Italia Gillian Edgeworth, Chief EEMEA Economist (UniCredit Bank London) gillian.edgeworth@unicredit.eu Published: 29 January 2013 Source: National Statistics Offices and Central banks, UniCredit Research UniCredit Research page 3 See last pages for disclaimer.
4 Bosnia and Herzegovina Bosna i Hercegovina UniCredit Bank UniCredit Bank Banja Luka Kardinala Stepinca b.b. Marije Bursac 7 BH Mostar BH Banja Luka Phone ( ) Phone ( ) Structural indicators Strukturni pokazatelji Area (km 2 ) Površina (km 2 ) Population (mn) Stanovništvo (mil.) President Predsjedavajući Predsjedništva BiH Prime Minister Predsjedavajući Vijeća ministara BiH GDP (2011 in EUR bn) BDP (2011., u milijardama EUR) Per capita GDP (2011 in EUR) BDP po glavi stanovnika (2011., u EUR) Exports as % of GDP (2011) Izvoz u % BDP (2011) 51,129 3,838 Nebojša Radmanović Vjekoslav Bevanda , Gross domestic product by economic sectors 2011 Bruto domaći proizvod po sektorima gospodarstva u % 6.9% 17.9% 4.1% Agriculture and forestry Poljoprivreda i šumarstvo Industry Industrija Construction Građevinarstvo Services Usluge UniCredit Research page 4 See last pages for disclaimer.
5 Indicators Bosnia and Herzegovina Pokazatelji Bosna i Hercegovina GDP (real, yoy, %) Bruto domaći proizvod (realno, godišnja stopa promjene u %) Gross fixed capital formation (real, yoy, %) Investicije u osnovna sredstva (realno, godišnja stopa promjene u %) Industrial output (real, yoy, %) Industrijska proizvodnja (realno, godišnja stopa promjene u %) Consumer prices (yearly average) Potrošačke cijene (prosječna godišnja stopa promjene u %) Unemployment rate (yearly average) Stopa nezaposlenosti (godišnji prosjek u %) Merchandise exports (EUR mn) Izvoz robe (u mil. EUR) Merchandise imports (EUR mn) Uvoz robe (u mil. EUR) Current account (% of GDP) Saldo tekućeg računa platne bilance (u % BDP-a) FDI (inflow, % of GDP) Izravna inozemna ulaganja (neto priljev, u % BDP-a) Budget balance (% of GDP) Saldo proračuna (u % BDP-a) Average exchange rate: BAM/EUR Prosječni devizni tečaj: BAM/EUR ECB REFI rate (end of December) REFI kamatna stopa ECB-a (stanje na kraju prosinca) E 2013F 2014F n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a ,625 2,599 2,833 3,201-6,892-6,892-7,271-7, Note: since 2011 data on exports/imports in accordance with new methodology (BPL6) Bilješka: od 2011 podaci o izvozu/uvozu s skladu s novom metodologijom (BPL6) UniCredit Research page 5 See last pages for disclaimer.
6 Bulgaria България UniCredit Bulbank Sveta Nedelya Sq. 7 BG-1000 Sofia Phone (+359 2) Structural indicators Структурни индикатори Area (km 2 ) Площ (кв.км) Population (mn) Население в млн. President Президент Prime Minister Министър председател GDP 2011 (EUR bn) БВП за 2011 (в млрд. евро) Per capita GDP 2011 (EUR) БВП на човек от населението за 2011 (в евро) Exports as % of GDP 2011 Износ в % от БВП за Rosen Plevneliev Boyko Borissov Gross domestic product by economic sectors 2011* Брутен вътрешен продукт по икономически сектори за % 63.2% 24.6% 6.5% Agriculture and forestry Селско и горско стопанство Industry Промишленост Construction Строителство Services Услуги *Incl. adjustments (taxes less subsidies on products) distributed according to the relative share of each sector in GVA UniCredit Research page 6 See last pages for disclaimer.
7 Indicators Bulgaria Индикатори за България GDP (real, yoy, %) БВП (реален ръст спрямо предходната година, %) Gross fixed capital formation (real, yoy, %) Бруто капиталообразуване (реален ръст) Industrial output (real, yoy, %) Промишлено производство (реален ръст) Consumer prices (yearly average) Индекс на потребителски цени (средно годишно) Unemployment rate (yearly average) Равнище на безработицата (средно годишно) Merchandise exports (EUR mn) Стоков износ (млн. евро) Merchandise imports (EUR mn) Стоков внос (млн. евро) Current account (% of GDP) Текуща сметка (в % от БВП) FDI (inflow, % of GDP) Преки чуждестранни инвестиции Budget balance (% of GDP) Бюджетен баланс (в % от БВП) Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) Брутен външен дълг (в % от БВП) Average exchange rate: BGN/EUR Среден валутен курс: BGN/EUR Leonia, (avg.) Леониа (среден) E 2013F 2014F ,221 21,714 23,810 26,540 22,331 25,101 27,882 31, UniCredit Research page 7 See last pages for disclaimer.
8 Croatia Hrvatska Zagrebačka banka Trg bana Josipa Jelačića 10 HR Zagreb Phone (+385 1) Structural indicators Strukturni pokazatelji Area (km 2 ) Površina (km 2 ) Population (mn) Stanovništvo (u milijunima) President Predsjednik Prime Minister Predsjednik Vlade GDP (2011 in EUR bn) BDP (u 2011., u milijardama EUR) Per capita GDP (2011 in EUR) BDP po glavi stanovnika (u 2011., u EUR) Exports as % of GDP (2011) Izvoz u % BDP-a (u 2011) 56,594 4,285 Ivo Josipović Zoran Milanović , Gross domestic product by economic sectors 2011 Bruto domaći proizvod po sektorima gospodarstva u % Agriculture and forestry Poljoprivreda i šumarstvo 20.5% Industry Industrija Construction 6.0% Graditeljstvo Services 68.4% Usluge UniCredit Research page 8 See last pages for disclaimer.
9 Indicators Croatia Pokazatelji za Hrvatsku GDP (real, yoy, %) Bruto domaći proizvod (realno, godišnja stopa promjene u %) Gross fixed capital formation (real, yoy, %) Investicije u osnovna sredstva (realno, godišnja stopa promjene u %) Industrial output (real, yoy, %) Industrijska proizvodnja (realno, godišnja stopa promjene u %) Consumer prices (yearly average chg. in %) Potrošačke cijene (prosječna godišnja stopa promjene u %) Unemployment rate (yearly average) Stopa nezaposlenosti (godišnji prosjek u %) Merchandise exports (EUR mn) Izvoz robe (u milijunima EUR) Merchandise imports (EUR mn) Uvoz robe (u milijunima EUR) Current account (% of GDP) Saldo tekućeg računa platne bilance (u % BDP-a) FDI (inflow, % of GDP) Izravna inozemna ulaganja (neto priljev, u % BDP-a) Budget balance (% of GDP) Saldo proračuna (u % BDP-a) Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) Bruto dug prema inozemstvu (u % BDP-a) Average exchange rate: HRK/EUR Prosječni devizni tečaj: HRK/EUR 1M ZIBOR (avg. in %) 1TJ ZIBOR (prosječno) E 2013F 2014F ,774 9,511 10,054 10,790 16,147 16,131 16,915-18, UniCredit Research page 9 See last pages for disclaimer.
10 Czech Republic Česká republika UniCredit Bank Želetavská 1525/1 CZ Praha 4 Phone (+420) Structural indicators Strukturální ukazatele Area (km 2 ) Rozloha (km 2 ) Population (mn) Počet obyvatel (v mil.) President Prezident Prime Minister Předseda vlády GDP 2011 (EUR bn) HDP 2011 (v mld. EUR) Per capita GDP 2011 (EUR) HDP na hlavu (2011, v EUR) Exports as % of GDP 2011 Vývoz v % HDP (2011) 78, Václav Klaus Petr Nečas , Gross domestic product by economic sectors 2011 Hrubý domácí produkt podle sektorů ekonomiky % 1.9% 31.0% 6.7% Agriculture and forestry Zemědělství a lesnictví Industry Průmysl Construction Stavebnictví Services Služby UniCredit Research page 10 See last pages for disclaimer.
11 Indicators Czech Republic Ukazatele Česká republika GDP (real, yoy, %) HDP (reálný meziroční růst v %) Gross fixed capital formation (real, yoy, %) Tvorba hrubého fixního kapitálu (reálný meziroční růst v %) Industrial output (real, yoy, %) Průmyslová výroba (reálný meziroční růst v %) Consumer prices (yearly average) Spotřebitelské ceny (průměrná meziroční změna v %) Unemployment rate (yearly average) Míra nezaměstnanosti (roční průměr v %) Merchandise exports (EUR mn) Vývoz zboží (v mil. EUR) Merchandise imports (EUR mn) Dovoz zboží (v mil. EUR) Current account (% of GDP) Běžný účet (v % HDP) FDI (inflow, % of GDP) Přímé zahraniční investice (příliv v % HDP) Budget balance (% of GDP) Bilance státního rozpočtu (v % HDP) Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) Hrubá zahraniční zadluženost (v % HDP) Average exchange rate: EUR/CZK Průměrný směnný kurs: EUR/CZK 2-week repo rate (end of period, %) 2-týdenní repo sazba (konec období, v %) E 2013F 2014F , , , , , , , , UniCredit Research page 11 See last pages for disclaimer.
12 Estonia Eesti UniCredit Bank Estonian Branch Liivalaia street 13/15 EST Tallinn Phone (+372) Structural indicators Struktuurilised näitajad Area (km 2 ) Pindala (km²) Population (mn) Rahvastik (mln) President President Prime Minister Peaminister GDP 2011 (EUR bn) Sisemajanduse koguprodukt (SKP) (2011 a. mld EUR) Per capita GDP 2011 (EUR) Sisemajanduse koguprodukt (SKP) elaniku kohta (2011 a. EUR) Exports as % of GDP 2011 Eksport % SKP (2011) 45, Toomas Hendrik Ilves Andrus Ansip ,311 n.a. Gross domestic product by economic sectors 2011 Sisemajanduse koguprodukt majandussektorite lõikes % 3.6% 17.3% 6.4% Agriculture and forestry Põllumajandus ja metsandus Industry Tööstus Construction Ehitus Services Teenindus UniCredit Research page 12 See last pages for disclaimer.
13 Indicators Estonia Näitajad Eesti GDP (real, yoy, %) Reaalne SKP (võrreldes eelmise aastaga, %) Gross fixed capital formation (real, yoy, %) Kapitali kogumahutus põhivarasse (tegelik, võrreldes eelmise aastaga, %) Industrial output (real, yoy, %) Tööstustoodang (tegelik, võrreldes eelmise aastaga, %) Consumer prices (yearly average) Tarbijahinnaindeks (aasta keskmine) Unemployment rate (yearly average) Töötus (aasta keskmine) Merchandise exports (EUR mn) Kauba eksport (mln EUR) Merchandise imports (EUR mn) Kauba import (mln EUR) Current account (% of GDP) Jooksevkonto (% SKP) FDI (inflow, % of GDP) Välismaised otseinvesteeringud (neto % SKP) Budget balance (% of GDP) Eelarve tasakaal (% SKP) Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) Koguvälisvõlg (% SKP) 3M Talibor (end of period, %) 3 kuu Talibor (aasta lõpu seisuga) E 2013F 2014F n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a UniCredit Research page 13 See last pages for disclaimer.
14 Hungary Magyarország UniCredit Bank Szabadság Tér 5-6 H-1054 Budapest Phone (+36 1) Structural indicators Összefoglaló adatok Area (km 2 ) Terület (km 2 ) Population (mn) Lakosságszám (millió) President Államfő Prime Minister Miniszterelnök GDP 2011 (EUR bn) GDP 2011 (mrd EUR) Per capita GDP 2011 (EUR) Egy főre jutó GDP 2011 (EUR) Exports as % of GDP 2011 Export a GDP 2011 %-ában 93, János Áder Viktor Orbán , Gross domestic product by economic sectors 2011 A bruttó hazai termék gazdasági szektorok közötti megoszlása % 3.8% 23.0% 3.4% Agriculture and forestry Mezőgazdaság és erdőgazdaság Industry Ipar Construction Építőipar Services Szolgáltatások UniCredit Research page 14 See last pages for disclaimer.
15 Indicators Hungary Gazdasági jelzőszámok, Magyaroroszág GDP (real, yoy, %) GDP (reál, év/év, %) Gross fixed capital formation (real, yoy, %) Bruttó állóeszközfelhalmozás (reál, év/év, %) Industrial output (real, yoy, %) Ipari termelés (reál, év/év, %) Consumer prices (yearly average) Fogyasztói árak növekedése (éves átlagos) Unemployment rate (yearly average) Munkanélküliségi ráta (éves átlagos) Merchandise exports (EUR mn) Áru export (millió EUR) Merchandise imports (EUR mn) Áru import (millió EUR) Current account (% of GDP) Folyó fizetési mérleg (a GDP %-ában) FDI (inflow, % of GDP) FDI (bejövő, a GDP %-ában) Budget balance (% of GDP) Államháztartás egyenlege (a GDP %-ában) Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) Bruttó külső adósság (a GDP %-ában) Average exchange rate: HUF/EUR Átlagos HUF/EUR árfolyam Base rate (end of period, %) Jegybanki alapkamat (időszak végén, %) E 2013F 2014F , , , , , , , , UniCredit Research page 15 See last pages for disclaimer.
16 Kazakhstan Қазақстан ATFBank Furmanov street 100 KZ Almaty Phone (+7 727) Structural indicators Күрылымдык көрсеткiштер Area (km 2 ) Алаңы (км 2 ) Population (mn) Халық саны млн. President Президент Prime Minister Премьер-министр GDP 2011 (EUR bn) ЖIӨ (2011 ж., миллиарда Еуромен) Per capita GDP 2011 (EUR) Жан басына шаққандағы ЖIӨ (2011 ж., Еуромен) Exports as % of GDP 2011 ЖIӨ-ден % түріндегі экспорттың көлемі (2011) 2,717, Nursultan Nazarbayev Karim K. Massimov , Gross domestic product by economic sectors ж. экономика секторы бойынша жалпы ішкі өнім 54.3% 5.4% 33.3% Agriculture and forestry Ауыл жəне орман шаруашылығы Industry Өнеркəсіп Construction Kұрылыс Services Қызмет көрсетү саласы 7.0% UniCredit Research page 16 See last pages for disclaimer.
17 Indicators Kazakhstan Көрсеткiштер Қазақстан GDP (real, yoy, %) ЖIӨ нақты өсiмi (%) Gross fixed capital formation (real, yoy, %) Инвестицияның нақты өсiмi (%) Industrial output (real, yoy, %) Өнеркəсіптің нақты өсiмi (%) Consumer prices (yearly average) Тұтынушылық бағалар (жылдық орташа) Unemployment rate (yearly average) Жұмыссыздық деңгейi (жылдық орташа) Merchandise exports (EUR mn) Экспорт көлемi (миллион Еуромен) Merchandise imports (EUR mn) Импорт көлемi (миллион Еуромен) Current account (% of GDP) Ағымдағы операциялар шоты (ЖIӨ-ге қатысты %-бен) FDI (inflow, % of GDP) Тікелей шетел инвестициялары (ЖIӨ-ге қатысты %-бен акша ағыны) Budget balance (% of GDP) Бюджет сальдосы (ЖIӨ-ге қатысты %-бен) Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) Сырткы қарыз көлемі (ЖIӨ-ге қатысты %-бен) Average exchange rate: KZT/EUR Орташа бағам KZT/EUR 3-M-Kaz Prime (end of period, %) З-А Kazprime E 2013F 2014F ,374 71,297 74,055 81,147 29,523 37,343 41,013 44, UniCredit Research page 17 See last pages for disclaimer.
18 Latvia Latvija UniCredit Bank Elizabetes street 63 LV-1050 Riga Phone (+371 6) Structural indicators Struktūras rādītāji Area (km 2 ) Platība (km 2 ) Population (mn) Iedzīvotāju skaits. (milj.) President Prezidente Prime Minister Premjerministrs GDP 2011 (EUR bn) IKP (2011, miljardos EUR) Per capita GDP 2011 (EUR) IKP uz vienu iedzīvotāju (2011, EUR) Exports as % of GDP 2011 Eksports % no IKP (2011) 64, Dalia Grybauskaitė Andris Bērziņš ,753 n.a. Gross domestic product by economic sectors 2011 IKP pa sektoriem % 5.1% 14.1% 5.5% Agriculture and forestry Lauksaimniecība un mežsaimniecība Industry Rūpniecība Construction Celtniecība Services Pakalpojum UniCredit Research page 18 See last pages for disclaimer.
19 Indicators Latvia Rāđītaji Latvija GDP (real, yoy, %) Reālais IKP (salīdzinot ar iepriekšējo gadu, %) Gross fixed capital formation (real, yoy, %) Kopējā pamatkapitāla veidošanās (reala, salīdzinot ar iepriekšejo gadu, %) Industrial output (real, yoy, %) Rūpniecības produkcija (reala, salīdzinot ar iepriekšejo gadu, %) Consumer prices (yearly average) Patēriņa cenas (gada vidējās) Unemployment rate (yearly average) Bezdarbs (gada vidējās) Merchandise exports (EUR mn) Preču eksports (milj. EUR) Merchandise imports (EUR mn) Preču imports (milj. EUR) Current account (% of GDP) Tekošais konts (% no IKP) FDI (inflow, % of GDP) Arvalstu tiešas investīcijas (iepludums, neto % no IKP) Budget balance (% of GDP) Budžeta atlikums (% no IKP) Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) Kopejais arejais parads (% no IKP) 3M Rigibid (end of period, %) 3-mēnešu Rigibid likme (perioda beigās) E 2013F 2014F n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a UniCredit Research page 19 See last pages for disclaimer.
20 Lithuania Lietuva UniCredit Bank Lithuania Branch Lvovo Street 25 LT Vilnius Phone (+370 5) Structural indicators Bendrieji rodikliai Area (km 2 ) Plotas (km²) Population (mn) Gyventojų skaičius (mln) President Prezidentas Prime Minister Ministras pirmininkas GDP 2011 (EUR bn) Bendras vidaus produktas (BVP, 2011, bil. Euras) Per capita GDP 2011 (EUR) BVP tenkantis 1 gyventojui (2011, Euras) Exports as % of GDP 2011 Eksportas % nuo BVP (2011) 65, Dalia Grybauskaité Algirdas Butkevičius ,161 n.a. Gross domestic product by economic sectors 2011 Bendras vidaus produktas pagal ekonominius sektorius % 3.3% 24.8% 6.6% Agriculture and forestry Žemės ukis ir miškininkystė Industry Pramonė Construction Statyba Services Paslaugos UniCredit Research page 20 See last pages for disclaimer.
21 Indicators Lithuania Rodikliai Lietuva GDP (real, yoy, %) BVP (grynas, metinis, %) Gross fixed capital formation (real, yoy, %) Bendro pagrindinio kapitalo sudarymas Industrial output (real, yoy, %) Pramonės apimtis (grynas, metinis, %) Consumer prices (yearly average) Vartojimo prekių kainos (vidutinės metinės) Unemployment rate (yearly average) Nedarbo lygis (vidutinės metinės) Merchandise exports (EUR mn) Prekių eksportas (mln. Euras) Merchandise imports (EUR mn) Prekių importas (mln. Euras) Current account (% of GDP) Einamoji sąskaita (% lyginant su BVP) FDI (inflow, % of GDP) Tiesiogines užsienio investicijos (TUI) Budget balance (% of GDP) Biudžeto balansas (% lyginant su BVP) Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) Bendra užsienio skola (% nuo BVP) 3M Vilibor (end of period, %) 3 menesių Vilibor palukanų norma E 2013F 2014F n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a UniCredit Research page 21 See last pages for disclaimer.
22 1 Economics & FI/FX Research Poland Polska Bank Pekao Ul. Grzybowska 53/57 PL Warsaw Phone (+48 42) Structural indicators Wskaźniki strukturalne Area (km 2 ) Powierzchnia (km 2 ) Population (mn) Ludność (mln) President Prezydent Prime Minister Premier GDP 2011 (EUR bn) PKB w 2011 (mld EUR) Per capita GDP 2011 (EUR) PKB per capita w 2011 (EUR) Exports as % of GDP 2011 Eksport jako % PKB w , Bronislaw Komorowski Donald Tusk , Gross domestic product by economic sectors 2011 Produkt krajowy brutto udział sektorów % 3.7% 24.1% 8.1% Agriculture and forestry Rolnictwo i leśnictwo Industry Przemysł Construction Budownictwo Services Usługi UniCredit Research page 22 See last pages for disclaimer.
23 Indicators Poland Wskaźniki dla Polski GDP (real, yoy, %) Realny PKB Gross fixed capital formation (real, yoy, %) Nakłady brutto na środki trwałe (% r/r) Industrial output (real, yoy, %) Produkcja przemysłowa (% r/r) Consumer prices (yearly average) Ceny konsumenta (średnia w roku) Unemployment rate (yearly average) Stopa bezrobocia (średnia w roku) Merchandise exports (EUR mn) Eksport towarów (mln EUR) Merchandise imports (EUR mn) Import towarów (mln EUR) Current account (% of GDP) Deficyt na rachunku obrotów bieżących (% PKB) FDI (inflow, % of GDP) Bezpośrednie inwestycje zagraniczne (% PKB) Budget balance (% of GDP) Deficyt budżetowy (% PKB) Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) Całkowity dług zagraniczny (% PKB) Average exchange rate: EUR/PLN Średni kurs EUR/PLN Reference rate (end of period, %) Stopa referencyjna (na koniec roku, %) E 2013F 2014F , , , , , , , , UniCredit Research page 23 See last pages for disclaimer.
24 Romania România UniCredit Tiriac Bank 1F, Expozitiei Boulevard RO Bucharest 1, Phone (+40 21) Structural indicators Indicatori de structura Area (km 2 ) Suprafaţa (km 2 ) Population (mn) Populaţia (în mil.) President Preşedinte Prime Minister Prim Ministru GDP 2011 (EUR bn) PIB (2011, în mrd. EUR) Per capita GDP 2011 (EUR) PIB/cap de locuitor (2011, în EUR) Exports as % of GDP 2011 Exporturi în % din PIB , Traian Băsescu Victor Ponta , Gross domestic product by economic sectors 2011* Produsul Intern Brut pe sectoare % 7.4% 29.9% Agriculture and forestry Agricultură şi silvicultură Industry Industrie Construction Construcţii Services Servicii *Contributions to gross value added 11.1% UniCredit Research page 24 See last pages for disclaimer.
25 Indicators Romania Indicatori România GDP (real, yoy, %) PIB real (an curent/an precedent, în %) Gross fixed capital formation (real, yoy, %) Formarea Brută de capital (reală, an curent/an precedent, în %) Industrial output (real, yoy, %) Producţia industrială (reală, an curent/an precedent, în %) Consumer prices (yearly average) Indicele Preţurilor de consum (media anuală) Unemployment rate (yearly average) Rata şomajului (media anuală) Merchandise exports (EUR mn) Exportul de bunuri (în mil EUR) Merchandise imports (EUR mn) Importul de bunuri (în mil EUR) Current account (% of GDP) Cont curent (în procent din PIB) FDI (inflow, % of GDP) Investiţiile Străine Directe (intrări, în procent din PIB) Budget balance (% of GDP) Soldul bugetar (în procent din PIB) Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) Datoria Externă brută (în procent din PIB) Average exchange rate: RON/EUR Cursul mediu de schimb: RON/EUR Policy rate (end of period, %) Rata dobânzii de politică monetară (la sfârşitul perioadei, în %) E 2013F 2014F ,041 45,682 48,659 52,334 52,563 54,095 57,633 60, UniCredit Research page 25 See last pages for disclaimer.
26 Russia Россия UniCredit Bank Yapi Kredi Moscow Prechistenskaya Emb. 9 Goncharnaya Emb. 2 RF Moscow RF Moscow Phone (+7 495) Phone (+7 495) Structural indicators Структурные индикаторы Area (km 2 ) Площадь (км 2 ) Population (mn) Население (млн) President Президент Prime Minister Председатель Правительства GDP 2011 (EUR bn) ВВП 2011 (млрд. Евро) Per capita GDP 2011 (EUR) ВВП на душу населения (2011 г., Евро) Exports as % of GDP 2011 Экспорт в % от ВВП (2011) 17,045, Vladimir Putin Dmitry Medvedev 1,336 9, Gross domestic product by economic sectors 2011 Валовой внутренний продукт по секторам экономики % 4.0% 29.0% 7.0% Agriculture and forestry Сельское и лесное хозяйство Industry Промышленность Construction Строительство Services Услуги UniCredit Research page 26 See last pages for disclaimer.
27 Indicators Russia Показатели Россия GDP (real, yoy, %) ВВП (реальный рост, %) Gross fixed capital formation (real, yoy, %) Валовое накопление основного Industrial output (real, yoy, %) Промышленное производство Consumer prices (yearly average) Потребительские цены (в среднем за год) Unemployment rate (yearly average) Уровень безработицы (в среднем за год) Merchandise exports (EUR mn) Экспорт товаров (млн. Евро) Merchandise imports (EUR mn) Импорт товаров (млн. Евро) Current account (% of GDP) Счет текущих операций (% ВВП) FDI (inflow, % of GDP) Прямые иностранные инвестиции Budget balance (% of GDP) Сальдо бюджета (% от ВВП) Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) Валовой внешний долг (% от ВВП) Average exchange rate: RUB/EUR Средний обменный курс RUB/EUR 3-M Mosprime, (end of period, %) Моспрайм 3-месяц (на конец периода, %) E 2013F 2014F UniCredit Research page 27 See last pages for disclaimer.
28 Serbia Srbija UniCredit Bank Rajićeva SRB Belgrade Phone ( ) Structural indicators Strukturni indikatori Area (km 2 ) Površina (km 2 ) Population (mn) Stanovništvo (u milionima) President Predsednik Prime Minister Premijer GDP (2011 in, EUR bn) Bruto domaći proizvod (u 2011., u milijardama EUR) Per capita GDP 2011 (EUR) BDP po glavi stanovnika (u 2011., u EUR) Exports as % of GDP (2011) Izvoz u % BDP-a (u 2011.) 102,713 7,241 Tomislav Nikolić Ivica Dačić , Gross domestic product by economic sectors 2011 Bruto domaći proizvod po sektorima ekonomije u % 10.4% 4.7% 23.0% Agriculture and forestry Poljoprivreda i šumarstvo Industry Industrija Construction Građevinarstvo Services Usluge UniCredit Research page 28 See last pages for disclaimer.
29 Indicators Serbia Indikatori za Srbiju GDP (real, yoy, %) Bruto domaći proizvod (realno, godišnja stopa promene u %) Gross fixed capital formation (real, yoy, %) Investicije u osnovna sredstva (realno, godišnja stopa promene u %) Industrial output (real, yoy, %) Industrijska proizvodnja (realno, godišnja stopa promene u %) Consumer prices (yearly average) Potrošačke cene (prosečna godišnja stopa rasta u %) Unemployment rate (yearly average) Stopa nezaposlenosti (godišnji prosek u %) Merchandise exports (EUR mn) Izvoz robe (u milionima EUR) Merchandise imports (EUR mn) Uvoz robe (u milionima EUR) Current account (% of GDP) Saldo tekućeg računa platnog bilansa (u % BDP-a) FDI (inflow, % of GDP) Direktne strane investicije (neto priliv, u % BDP-a) Budget balance (% of GDP) Budžetski saldo (u % BDP-a) Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) Bruto dug prema inostranstvu (u % BDP-a) Average exchange rate: RSD/EUR Prosečni devizni kurs: RSD/EUR Reference rate (end of period, %) Referentna kamatna stopa (kraj perioda, u %) E 2013F 2014F n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a , , , , ,758 14,170 15,446 16, UniCredit Research page 29 See last pages for disclaimer.
30 Slovakia Slovensko UniCredit Bank Šancová 1/A SK Bratislava Phone (+42 12) Structural indicators Základné údaje Area (km 2 ) Rozloha (km²) Population (mn) Obyvateľstvo (v mil.) President Prezident Prime Minister Premiér GDP 2011 (EUR bn) HDP (2011 v mld. eur) Per capita GDP 2011 (EUR) HDP na obyvateľa (2011, eur) Exports as % of GDP 2011 Vývoz v % HDP (2011) 49, Ivan Gašparovič Robert Fico , Gross domestic product by economic sectors 2011 HDP podľa sektorov % 3.1% 24.4% 8.2% Agriculture and forestry Poľnohospodárstvo Industry Priemysel Construction Stavebníctvo Services Služby UniCredit Research page 30 See last pages for disclaimer.
31 Indicators Slovakia Ukazovatele Slovensko GDP (real, yoy, %) Rast HDP (reálny) Gross fixed capital formation (real, yoy, %) Tvorba hrubého fixného kapatitálu (v stálych cenách) Industrial output (real, yoy, %) Priemyselná produkcia (v stálych cenách) Consumer prices (yearly average) Inflácia (spotrebiteľská, ročný priemer) Unemployment rate (yearly average, Eurostat) Nezamestnanosť (ročný priemer m. Eurostatu) Merchandise exports (EUR mn) Vývoz tovarov (v mil. eur) Merchandise imports (EUR mn) Dovoz tovarov (v mil. eur) Current account (% of GDP) Bežný účet (v % HDP) FDI (inflow, % of GDP) Priame zahraničné investície (prítok, v % HDP) Budget balance (% of GDP) Deficit verejných financií (v % HDP) Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) Zahraničný dlh (hrubý, v % HDP) Average exchange rate: USD/EUR Priemerný výmenný kurz: USD/EUR ECB repo rate (end of period, %) Repo sadzba centrálnej banky (koniec roka, v %) E 2013F 2014F ,960 62,363 67,040 72,738 55,985 59,315 63,704 69, UniCredit Research page 31 See last pages for disclaimer.
32 Slovenia Slovenija UniCredit Bank Šmartinska cesta 140 SI-1000 Ljubljana Phone (+386 1) Structural indicators Strukturni kazalci Area (km 2 ) Površina (km 2 ) Population (mn) Prebivalstvo (v mio) President Predsednik Prime Minister Predsednik Vlade GDP (2011 in EUR bn) BDP (2011 v mlrd EUR) Per capita GDP (2011 in EUR) BDP na prebivalca (2011 v EUR) Exports as % of GDP 2011 Izvoz v % od BDP (2011) 20, Borut Pahor Janez Janša , Gross domestic product by economic sectors 2011 Bruto domači proizvod po gospodarskih panogah % Agriculture and forestry Kmetijstvo in gozdarstvo 24.5% Industry Industrija Construction Gradbeništvo 6.0% Services 66.9% Storitve UniCredit Research page 32 See last pages for disclaimer.
33 Indicators Slovenia Kazalci za Slovenijo GDP (real, yoy, %) Bruto domači proizvod (realno, v primerjavi s prejšnjim letom, v %) Gross fixed capital formation (real, yoy, %) Investicije v osnovna sredstva (realno, v primerjavi s prejšnjim letom, v %) Industrial output (real, yoy, %) Industrijska proizvodnja (realno, v primerjavi s prejšnjim letom, v %) Consumer prices (yearly average) Cene življenskih potrebščin (letno povprečje, v %) Unemployment rate (yearly average) Stopnja brezposelnosti (letno povprečje, v %) Merchandise exports (EUR mn) Izvoz blaga (v mio EUR) Merchandise imports (EUR mn) Uvoz blaga (v mio EUR) Current account (% of GDP) Saldo tekočega računa plačilne bilance (v % od BDP) FDI (inflow, % of GDP) Neposredne tuje naložbe (neto priliv, v % od BDP) Budget balance (% of GDP) Saldo proračuna (v % od BDP) Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) Bruto zadolženost v tujini (v % od BDP) Average exchange rate: USD/EUR Povprečni menjalni tečaj: USD/EUR ECB Refi rate, (end of period, %) Obrestna mera refinanciranja ECB (konec obdoblja, v %) E 2013F 2014F ,814 21,000 21,600 22,800 22,452 22,200 22,200 23, UniCredit Research page 33 See last pages for disclaimer.
34 Turkey Türkiye UniCredit Menkul Degerler A.S. Buyukdere Cad. No 195/5 TR Levent İstanbul Phone Structural indicators Yapısal Göstergeler Area (km 2 ) Yüzölcümü (km 2 ) Population (2010 mid year, mn) Nüfus (2010 yıl ortası, milyon) President Cumhurbaskanı Prime Minister Başbakan GDP 2011 (EUR bn) GSYH 2011 (milyar AVRO) Per capita GDP 2011 (EUR) Kişi başına düşen GSYH (2011, AVRO) Exports as % of GDP 2011 İhracatın GSYH ye oranı (%, 2011) 780, Abdullah Gul Recep Tayyip Erdogan ,555 n.a. Gross domestic product by economic sectors 2011 GSYH nin iktisadi faaliyet kollarına göre dağılımı, % 10.5% 5.9% 23.7% Agriculture and forestry Tarım ve ormancılık Industry Sanayi Construction İnşaat Services Hizmetler UniCredit Research page 34 See last pages for disclaimer.
35 Indicators Turkey Göstergeler Türkiye GDP (real, yoy, %) GSYH (sabit fiyatlarla, yıllık % değişim) Gross fixed capital formation (real, yoy, %) Sabit Sermaye Yatırımı (sabit fiyatlarla, yıllık % değişim) Consumer prices (yearly average) Tüketici fiyatları (yıllık ortalama enflasyon) Unemployment rate (yearly average) İşsizlik oranı (yıllık ortalama) Merchandise exports (EUR mn) Mal İhracatı (milyon AVRO) Merchandise imports (EUR mn) Mal İthalatı (milyon AVRO) Current account (% of GDP) Cari işlemler dengesi (GSYH ye oran, %) FDI (inflow, % of GDP) DYY (giriş, GSYH ye oran, %) Budget balance (% of GDP) Bütçe dengesi (GSYH ye oran, %) Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) Brüt dış borç stoku (GSYH ye oran, %) Average exchange rate: (Y)TL/EUR Ortalama (Y)TL/AVRO döviz kuru Reference rate (weekly simple, end of period, %) TCMB borçlanma faizi (gecelik basit, yıl sonu, %) E 2013F 2014F n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a UniCredit Research page 35 See last pages for disclaimer.
36 Ukraine Україна UniCredit Bank Ukrsotsbank 14-A, Yaroslaviv Val 29 Kovpak street UA Kiev UA Kiev Phone ( ) Phone ( ) Structural indicators Структурні Показники Area (km 2 ) Площа (км 2 ) Population (mn) Населення (млн.) President Президент Prime Minister Прем'єр-міністр GDP 2011 (EUR bn) ВВП 2011 (млрд. Евро) Per capita GDP 2011 (EUR) ВВП на душу населення (2011 г. Евро) Exports as % of GDP 2011 Експорт в % від ВВП (2011) 603, Viktor Yanukovych Mykola Azarov ,603 n.a. Gross domestic product by economic sectors 2011 Валовий внутрішній продукт по галузях економікі % 9.6% 3.6% 24.2% Agriculture and forestry Сільське господарство та лісництво Industry Промисловість Construction Будівництво Services Послуги UniCredit Research page 36 See last pages for disclaimer.
37 Indicators Ukraine Показники Україна GDP (real, yoy, %) Реальний ВВП (зміна за рік, у %) Gross fixed capital formation (real, yoy, %) Приріст основного капіталу (реальний зміна за рік, у %) Industrial output (real, yoy, %) Обсяг промислового виробництва Consumer prices (yearly average) Споживчі ціни (в середньому за рік) Unemployment rate (yearly average) Безробіття (в середньому за рік) Merchandise exports (EUR mn) Експорт товарів (млн. євро) Merchandise imports (EUR mn) Імспорт товарів (млн. євро) Current account (% of GDP) Баланс поточних платежів (у % від ВВП) FDI (inflow, % of GDP) Прямі іноземні інвестиціі (у % від ВВП) Budget balance (% of GDP) Баланс бюджету (у % від ВВП) Average exchange rate: UAH/EUR Середній обмінний курс: UAH/EUR Reference rate (Kyiv 3-M, end of period, %) Облікова ставка (на кінець періоду, %) E 2013F 2014F n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a UniCredit Research page 37 See last pages for disclaimer.
38 Euro zone Euroland Structural indicators Strukturindikatoren Area (km 2 ) Fläche (km 2 ) Population (mn) Bevölkerung (Mio.) GDP 2011 (EUR bn) BIP 2011 (Mrd. EUR) Per capita GDP 2011 (EUR) BIP pro Kopf 2011 (EUR) Exports as % of GDP 2011 (including intra-area trade) Exporte in % des BIP ,438, , , Gross domestic product by economic sectors 2011 Bruttoinlandsprodukt nach Wirtschaftssektoren % 1.7% 19.1% 5.9% Agriculture and forestry Land- und Forstwirtschaft Industry Industrie Construction Bauwirtschaft Services Dienstleistungen UniCredit Research page 38 See last pages for disclaimer.
39 Indicators Euro zone Indikatoren Euroland GDP (real, yoy, %) Reales BIP (real, yoy, %) Gross fixed capital formation (real, yoy, %) Bruttoanlageinvestitionen (real,yoy, %) Industrial output (real, yoy, %) Industrieproduktion (real, yoy, %) Consumer prices (yearly average) Verbraucherpreisentwicklung Unemployment rate (yearly average) Arbeitslosenquote (Jahresdurchschnitt) Merchandise exports (EUR mn) Warenexporte (EUR Mio.) Merchandise imports (EUR mn) Warenimporte (EUR Mio.) Current account (% of GDP) Leistungsbilanzsaldo (% des BIP) FDI (inflow, % of GDP) Ausländische Direktinvestitionen Budget balance (% of GDP) Budgetsaldo (% des BIP) Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) Bruttoauslandsverschuldung (% des BIP) Average exchange rate: USD/EUR Wechselkurs (Jahresdurchschnitt): USD/EUR ECB Refi rate (end of period, %) Refinanzierungstender (Jahresendwert, %) E 2013F 2014F ,744,080 1,819,992 1,900,347 2,045,197 1,758,938 1,768,010 1,766,097 1,819, n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a UniCredit Research page 39 See last pages for disclaimer.
40 Austria Österreich Bank Austria Schottengasse 6-8 A-1010 Vienna Structural indicators Strukturindikatoren Area (km 2 ) Fläche (km 2 ) Population (mn) Bevölkerung (Mio.) President Präsident Prime Minister Bundeskanzler GDP 2011 (EUR bn) BIP 2011 (EUR Mrd.) Per capita GDP 2011 (EUR) BIP pro Kopf 2011 (EUR) Exports as % of GDP 2011 Exporte in % des BIP , Heinz Fischer Werner Faymann , Gross domestic product by economic sectors 2011 Bruttoinlandsprodukt nach Wirtschaftssektoren % Agriculture and forestry 22.5% Land- und Forstwirtschaft Industry Industrie Construction 6.8% Bauwirtschaft Services 69.0% Dienstleistungen UniCredit Research page 40 See last pages for disclaimer.
41 Indicators Austria Indikatoren Österreich GDP (real, yoy, %) Reales BIP (real, yoy, %) Gross fixed capital formation (real, yoy, %) Bruttoanlageinvestitionen (real,yoy, %) Industrial output (real, yoy, %) Industrieproduktion (real, yoy, %) Consumer prices (yearly average) Verbraucherpreisentwicklung Unemployment rate (yearly average) Arbeitslosenquote (Jahresdurchschnitt) Merchandise exports (EUR mn) Warenexporte (EUR Mio.) Merchandise imports (EUR mn) Warenimporte (EUR Mio.) Current account (% of GDP) Leistungsbilanzsaldo (% des BIP) FDI (inflow, % of GDP) Ausländische Direktinvestitionen Budget balance (% of GDP) Budgetsaldo (% des BIP) Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) Bruttoauslandsverschuldung (% des BIP) E 2013F 2014F , , , , , , , , UniCredit Research page 41 See last pages for disclaimer.
42 Germany Deutschland UniCredit Bank AG Kardinal-Faulhaber-Str. 1 D Munich Phone (+49) Structural indicators Strukturindikatoren Area (km 2 ) Fläche (km 2 ) Population (mn) Bevölkerung (Mio.) President Präsident Prime Minister Bundeskanzler GDP 2011 (EUR bn) BIP 2011 (EUR Mrd.) Per capita GDP 2011 (EUR) BIP pro Kopf 2011 (EUR) Exports as % of GDP 2011 Exporte in % des BIP , Joachim Gauck Angela Merkel 2, , Gross domestic product by economic sectors 2011 Bruttoinlandsprodukt nach Wirtschaftssektoren % 0.9% 22.6% 4.6% Agriculture and forestry Land- und Forstwirtschaft Industry Industrie Construction Bauwirtschaft Services Dienstleistungen UniCredit Research page 42 See last pages for disclaimer.
43 Indicators Germany Indikatoren Deutschland GDP (real, yoy, %) BIP (real, yoy, %) Gross fixed capital formation (real, yoy, %) Bruttoanlageinvestitionen (real, yoy, %) Industrial output (real, yoy, %) Industrieproduktion (real, yoy, %) Consumer prices (yearly average as %) Verbraucherpreise (Jahresdurchschnitt in %) Unemployment rate (yearly average as %) Arbeitslosenquote (Jahresdurchschnitt in %) Merchandise exports (EUR bn) Warenexporte (EUR Mrd.) Merchandise imports (EUR bn) Warenimporte (EUR Mrd.) Current account (% of GDP) Leistungsbilanzsaldo (% des BIP) FDI (inflow, % of GDP) Direktinvestitionen (Zuflüsse, % des BIP) Budget balance (% of GDP) Budgetsaldo (% des BIP) Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) Bruttoauslandsverschuldung (% des BIP) E 2013F 2014F ,061 1,111 1,156 1, n.a. n.a. n.a. UniCredit Research page 43 See last pages for disclaimer.
44 Italy Italia UniCredit Group Via S. Protaso 3 I Milan Phone (+39 02) Structural indicators Indicatori Strutturali Area (km 2 ) Superficie (km quadrati) Population (mn) Popolazione (in milioni) President Presidente della Repubblica Prime Minister Presidente del Consiglio GDP 2011 (EUR bn) PIL 2011 (in miliardi di Euro) Per capita GDP 2011 (EUR) PIL pro capite 2011 (Euro) Exports as % of GDP 2011 Esportazioni as % del PIL , Giorgio Napolitano Mario Monti 1,580 25, Gross domestic product by economic sectors 2011 Prodotto interno lordo per settori produttivi % 2.0% 18.7% 6.1% Agriculture and forestry Agricoltura Industry Industria Construction Costruzioni Services Servizi UniCredit Research page 44 See last pages for disclaimer.
45 Indicators Italy Indicatori per l Italia GDP (real, yoy, %) PIL (reale, a/a, %) Gross fixed capital formation (real, yoy, %) Investimenti fissi lordi (reali, a/a, %) Industrial output (real, yoy, %) Produzione Industriale (reale, a/a, %) Consumer prices (yearly average) Prezzi al consumo (media annua) Unemployment rate (yearly average) Tasso di disoccupazione (media annua) Merchandise exports (EUR mn) Esportazioni di beni (in milioni di Euro) Merchandise imports (EUR mn) Importazioni di beni (in milioni di Euro) Current account (% of GDP) Saldo delle partite correnti (as % del PIL) FDI (inflow, % of GDP) Investimenti diretti dall estero (as % del PIL) Budget balance (% of GDP) Saldo di bilancio (as % del PIL) Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) Debito estero (as % del PIL) Average exchange rate: USD/EUR Tasso di cambio euro-dollaro (media annua) ECB Refi rate (end of period, %) Tasso di riferimento BCE (fine periodo, as %) E 2013F 2014F , , , , , , , , n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a UniCredit Research page 45 See last pages for disclaimer.
46 Notes UniCredit Research page 46 See last pages for disclaimer.
47 Disclaimer Our recommendations are based on information obtained from, or are based upon public information sources that we consider to be reliable but for the completeness and accuracy of which we assume no liability. All estimates and opinions included in the report represent the independent judgment of the analysts as of the date of the issue. We reserve the right to modify the views expressed herein at any time without notice. Moreover, we reserve the right not to update this information or to discontinue it altogether without notice. This analysis is for information purposes only and (i) does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any financial, money market or investment instrument or any security, (ii) is neither intended as such an offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any financial, money market or investment instrument or any security nor (iii) as an advertisement thereof. The investment possibilities discussed in this report may not be suitable for certain investors depending on their specific investment objectives and time horizon or in the context of their overall financial situation. The investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investors may get back less than they invested. Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value of investments. Furthermore, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. In particular, the risks associated with an investment in the financial, money market or investment instrument or security under discussion are not explained in their entirety. This information is given without any warranty on an "as is" basis and should not be regarded as a substitute for obtaining individual advice. Investors must make their own determination of the appropriateness of an investment in any instruments referred to herein based on the merits and risks involved, their own investment strategy and their legal, fiscal and financial position. As this document does not qualify as an investment recommendation or as a direct investment recommendation, neither this document nor any part of it shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with or act as an inducement to enter into, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Investors are urged to contact their bank's investment advisor for individual explanations and advice. Neither UniCredit Bank, UniCredit Bank London, UniCredit Bank Milan, UniCredit Bank Vienna, UniCredit Bulbank, Zagrebačka banka, UniCredit Bank Czechia, Bank Pekao, UniCredit Russia, UniCredit Slovakia, UniCredit Tiriac, ATF Bank nor any of their respective directors, officers or employees nor any other person accepts any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. This analysis is being distributed by electronic and ordinary mail to professional investors, who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on this publication, and may not be redistributed, reproduced or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Responsibility for the content of this publication lies with: a) UniCredit Bank AG (UniCredit Bank), Am Tucherpark 16, Munich, Germany, (also responsible for the distribution pursuant to 34b WpHG). The company belongs to UniCredit Group. Regulatory authority: BaFin Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, Lurgiallee 12, Frankfurt, Germany. UniCredit Research page 47
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