BMO 2016 Fixed Income Infrastructure & Utilities Conference
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1 BMO 2016 Fixed Income Infrastructure & Utilities Conference 1
2 Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as forward-looking statements ) within the meaning of applicable securities legislation. All forward-looking statements are based on our beliefs as well as assumptions based on information available at the time the assumptions were made and on management s experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions, and expected future developments, as well as other factors deemed appropriate in the circumstances. Forward-looking statements are not facts, but only predictions and generally can be identified by the use of statements that include phrases such as may, will, believe, expect, anticipate, intend, plan, project, foresee, potential, enable, continue, or other comparable terminology. These statements are not guarantees of our future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and other important factors that could cause our actual performance to be materially different from that projected. In particular, this presentation contains forward-looking statements pertaining to our business and anticipated future financial and share price performance; our success in executing on our growth projects, including increasing customer contracts by 2021; anticipated gross margin from proprietary trading; capitalizing on opportunities in gas-fired and renewable generation; repositioning our capital structure and proactively planning for debt maturities; funding strategy, including pro forma year end 2015 liquidity, raising project-level debt through the use of our contracted asset base and leveraging TransAlta Renewables Inc. ( TransAlta Renewables ); the timing and the completion and commissioning of projects under development, including major projects such as the South Hedland Power Project and Sundance 7, and their attendant costs; expectations regarding TransAlta Corporation s ( TransAlta ) offer control in the Alberta market following the expiry of the power purchase arrangements; expectations related to future earnings and cash flow from operating and contracting activities (including estimates of comparable earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization ( EBITDA ), comparable funds from operations ( FFO ), and comparable free cash flow; expectations for demand for electricity in both the short term and long term, and the resulting impact on electricity prices; the impact of load growth, increased capacity, and natural gas costs on power prices; expectations in respect of generation availability, capacity, and production; expectations regarding the role different energy sources will play in meeting future energy needs; expected financing of our capital expenditures; expected governmental regulatory regimes and legislation and their expected impact on us and the timing of the implementation of such regimes and regulations, as well as the cost of complying with resulting regulations and laws; our trading strategies and the risk involved in these strategies; estimates of future tax rates, future tax expense, and the adequacy of tax provisions; accounting estimates; anticipated growth rates in our markets; the estimated contribution of Energy Marketing activities to gross margin; and expectations relating to the performance of TransAlta Renewables assets and plans for the sale of contracted assets to TransAlta Renewables. Factors that may adversely impact our forward-looking statements include risks relating to: fluctuations in market prices and the availability of fuel supplies required to generate electricity; our ability to contract our generation for prices that will provide expected returns; the regulatory and political environments in the jurisdictions in which we operate; environmental requirements and changes in, or liabilities under, these requirements; changes in general economic conditions including interest rates; operational risks involving our facilities, including unplanned outages at such facilities; disruptions in the transmission and distribution of electricity; the effects of weather; disruptions in the source of fuels, water, or wind required to operate our facilities; natural or man-made disasters; the threat of domestic terrorism and cyberattacks; equipment failure and our ability to carry out or have completed the repairs in a cost-effective manner or timely manner; commodity risk management; industry risk and competition; fluctuations in the value of foreign currencies and foreign political risks; the need for additional financing; structural subordination of securities; counterparty credit risk; insurance coverage; our provision for income taxes; legal, regulatory, and contractual proceedings involving the Corporation; outcomes of investigations and disputes; reliance on key personnel; labour relations matters; development projects and acquisitions, including delays in the construction of the South Hedland Power Project; failure to proceed with plans for raising project-level debt; failure to proceed with plans for the sale of contracted assets to TransAlta Renewables as a result of failure to agree to commercial terms with the independent directors of TransAlta Renewables, adverse market conditions or failure to obtain any required regulatory, shareholder or other third party approvals; and the satisfactory receipt of applicable regulatory approvals for existing and proposed operations and growth initiatives. The foregoing risk factors, among others, are described in further detail in the Risk Management section of this MD&A and under the heading Risk Factors in our Annual Information Form. Readers are urged to consider these factors carefully in evaluating the forward-looking statements and are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements included in this document are made only as of the date hereof and we do not undertake to publicly update these forward-looking statements to reflect new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable laws. In light of these risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, the forward-looking events might occur to a different extent or at a different time than we have described, or might not occur. We cannot assure that projected results or events will be achieved. Certain financial information contained in this presentation may not be standard measures defined under International Financial Reporting Standards ( IFRS ) and may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other entities. These measures may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures prepared in accordance with IFRS. For further information on non-ifrs financial measures we use, see the section entitled Non-IFRS Measures contained in our Management Discussion and Analysis, filed with Canadian securities regulators on 2
3 TransAlta s Diversified Portfolio Coal: 4,931 MW ~6 facilities in Alberta and the Pacific Northwest Gas: 1,315 MW 12 facilities in Canada and Australia; also 270km pipeline RNW owns all Australian gas assets (425 MW) and 506 MW gas facility in Ontario Wind & Solar: 1,402 MW 28 facilities in Canada and the U.S RNW owns ~90% of wind facilities Hydro: 914 MW 27 facilities in Canada and the U.S. TA owns all of the Alberta hydro facilities 3
4 Proven Track Record One of Canada s largest publicly traded power generators & marketers with over 100 years of operating experience Diversified and highly contracted asset base with over 70 facilities strategically positioned in Canada, the United States and Western Australia Approximately 25% of Free EBITDA generated by Canadian Coal assets $1,200 EBITDA and Cash Metrics (1) $ Free EBITDA (2) $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $ E 2016E EBITDA ($M) FFO/Share FCF/Share $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 9% 25% 24% 7% 35% Canadian Coal U.S. Coal Gas Wind Hydro (1) Guidance ranges are subject to potential regular year-end adjustments relating to force majeure provisions that will be reviewed as part of the financial close process (1) FFO/Share and FCF/Share reflect the average of the guidance ranges provided for 2015 and 2016 (2) Free EBITDA = EBITDA Sustaining Capital 4
5 Contracted Portfolio Supports Stable EBITDA MW 6,000 Total portfolio contractedness 1 87% 84% 72% 70% Merchant exposure in Alberta and the Pacific NW 2016 Hedge prices AB ~$45 - $50/MWh PacNW ~$40/MWh 5,000 4, Hedge prices AB ~$45 - $50/MWh PacNW ~$45 - $50/MWh 3,000 2,000 Alberta Well hedged through 2016 Market shocks allow opportunity to further hedge at prices higher than the current market 1, Open Merchant Short term contract / Hedges Long-term contract PPAs Pacific Northwest Puget Sound Energy and other long-term contracts provide base of between ~280MW and 380MW Additional shorter-term hedges managed dynamically to capture market volatility ¹ As of January 2016 Contract and hedging strategy underpin stable cashflows 5
6 Recent Accomplishments Raised ~$600 million in equity through TransAlta Renewables through Australian and Canadian asset drop-downs and AIMco strategic investment Raised ~$500 million in senior secured amortizing debt through Melancthon Wolfe Wind LP and our Pingston joint venture Reduced the annual dividend from $0.72 / share to $0.16 per share freeing up ~$150 million annually, discontinued DRIP Reduce U.S. Debt from $2.1 billion to $1.6 billion, however, the reduction was largely offset by U.S. dollar strengthening Current liquidity at ~$1.4 billion Significant cost reduction initiatives at our operations and corporate levels Extended contract at Poplar Creek to 2030 and acquired 135 MW s of renewables assets Completed the Australian pipeline construction in early 2015 and advanced the construction of South Hedland gas project on time and on budget 6
7 Strategic Objectives A Prudent and Proactive Plan 1) Deliver Operational Excellence 2) Maximize Financial Flexibility 3) Strategically Grow our Portfolio of Gas-Fired and Renewable Generation 7
8 Executing our Strategic Objectives Operational Excellence Maximize Financial Flexibility Strategic Growth Reduced costs by ~$50 million with productivity and efficiency initiatives at Canadian Coal and Corporate Raised approximately $1 billion of capital through the use of TransAlta Renewables On-track to meet our guidance FFO expected to be at the low end of guidance range despite low power prices Acquired 71 MWs of wind and solar assets in the U.S. Received approval to construct and operate Sundance 7 Continue to focus on Alberta coal mining operations Reposition our capital structure by pursuing project-level debt Proactive planning for debt maturities in 2017 Similar guidance ranges to 2015 despite continued challenging market conditions expected in 2016 Secure a coal transition agreement Prepare to capitalize on opportunities in gas-fired and renewable generation Longer-term focus given Alberta dynamics 8
9 Debt Funding Overview Credit Ratings: Agency Rating Outlook S&P BBB- Stable DBRS BBB Stable Fitch BBB- Stable Moody s Ba1 Stable $1,000 RNW Amortizing Debt CHD Debentures TAC USD Notes TAC CAD MTN $800 $600 $400 $200 $ Raised over $1 billion of capital in 2015 to strengthen our financial position 9
10 Proactively Preparing for Debt Maturities As at Sept 30 th 2015, ~$0.9 billion in available liquidity TransAlta recently raised: ~$440 million in non-recourse financing associated with two wind facilities $200 million through the sale of RNW common shares to AIMCo ~$170 million through the recent drop-down transaction with RNW Pro forma year-end 2015, ~$1.4 billion in available liquidity $800 $600 $400 CAD USD Upcoming Debt Maturities $520 $200 $0 $400 $400 $400 $27 $ Funding initiatives in 2016 can be used to pre-fund 2017 / 2018 maturities 10
11 Maximizing Financial Flexibility Reposition TransAlta s capital structure Accelerate the use of project-level debt to fund upcoming corporate debt maturities Deliver on FFO and debt reduction targets and achieve FFO to Debt target of 20% by Raise $400 to $600 million of project-level debt Refinance U.S.$400 million corporate maturity in Execute a similar strategy in 2017 Refinance 2018 debt maturities of CAD$177 million and U.S.$520 million 11
12 Utilizing our Contracted Asset Base Assets support target of $400 - $600 million in financing in the near-term Long-term contracted assets with credit worthy counterparties Strong operating history and well planned maintenance programs Size and ability to package certain assets together to manage transaction costs Wind ~500 MW in Ontario and the U.S. Hydro ~50 MW in Ontario and B.C. Gas ~525 MW in Ontario Longer-term, additional ~$1.3 billion (Hydro and Wind in Alberta and Australian portfolio) 12
13 Melancthon Wolfe Wind LP Project Financing First large scale senior secured amortizing financing employed by TransAlta in 2015 BBB (stable) credit rating from DBRS $442 million, 13.3 year term, 6.9 year average life, 3.834% coupon We expect to raise additional project finance against existing renewable and gas assets to re-finance corporate maturities as they come due 13
14 Leveraging TransAlta Renewables TransAlta Public TransAlta is the largest shareholder of TransAlta Renewables and will maintain ~60-80% ownership Unlocks the value of long-life contracted assets on attractive terms ~60-80% ~20-40% Provides access to lower cost funding Funds growth and debt reduction TransAlta Renewables Strong currency to support accretive acquisition of third party assets TransAlta Corporation and TransAlta Renewables are strategically aligned 14
15 TransAlta Renewables (TSX:RNW) Created in August 2013 to provide stable, consistent returns for investors through the ownership of highly contracted power generation and other infrastructure assets. $3.0 Enterprise Value¹ Market Cap. billion Enterprise Value 2015E EBITDA² $176 $2.4 million in 2014 billion Market Cap adjusted EBITDA Dividend Yield 9.6% Generating Capacity (including South Hedland) $0.84 $2.8 Billion $2.0 Billion annual dividend per share $245 Million 2,470 MW TransAlta Corporation s Ownership ~64% Wind Hydro Gas Fired Gas Pipeline Transmission ¹ Does not include capital required to complete South Hedland Project ² Average estimate of research analysts covering TransAlta Renewables * Enterprise Value and Market Cap. based on closing price as of January
16 Coal Transition in Alberta The Facts There is currently 6,277 MW of coal-fired installed capacity in Alberta, representing approximately 39% of the overall supply Federal regulations amended in 2012 designate useful life of coal plants as 50 years Eight of TransAlta s coal units, totaling 2,931MW, will be retired by the end of 2029 under the federal rule, resulting in GHG reductions of 88% from current levels Three other coal units in Alberta will be decommissioned by 2030, representing approximately 450MW as a result of recently announced climate leadership plan compensation expected Plant MW (Net) Annual GWh 1 Retirement Under Federal GHG Regulations Sundance 1 & , Sundance , Sundance , Sundance , Sundance , Keephills 1 & , Sheerness , Sheerness , Genesee , Keephills , ¹ Based on 85% availability 16
17 Long-Term Investment Opportunities Gas-fired Alberta s Climate Leadership Plan requirement for gas generation Sundance 7, low cost option in our portfolio Expansion & acquisition opportunities in United States & Australia Coal Optionality Evaluating coal to gas conversions Flexibility under Federal GHG legislation allows optimization of cash flows across the Alberta coal units Renewables/Transmission Climate Leadership Plan provides significant potential for new capacity Evaluating hydro pumped storage at TransAlta s existing hydro sites Privatization of Australia s electricity assets Significant acquisition opportunities 17
18 Appendix 18
19 Continued Strong Financial Performance Results (in millions $CAD, except where noted) 9 MOS Q MOS Q Revenues 1,672 1,905 2,623 2,292 2,210 Comparable EBITDA ,036 1,023 1,015 Comparable Funds from Operations Available Liquidity 1 (billions) Ratios 1 Cash Flow to Interest (times) 2, Cash Flow to Debt (%) 2, Debt to Invested Capital (%) ¹ These items are not defined under IFRS. Presenting earnings on a comparable basis provides management and investors with supplemental information to evaluate earnings trends in comparison with results from prior periods. Funds from operations (cash flow from operations before working capital) is not defined under IFRS and is presented as one measure used to assess operating results. Refer to the Non-IFRS Measures section of the applicable MD&A for further discussion of these items, including, where applicable, reconciliations to net earnings attributable to common shareholders and cash flow from operating activities. The MD&A for the periods presented above have been incorporated by reference into the Preliminary Prospectus Supplement for this offering. 2 Last 12 months 3 These ratios have been adjusted for the impact of the Sundance Units 1 and 2 arbitration which occurred in Q and for the impact associated with the California claim which occurred in Q4 of
20 Financial performance by Business Segment Business Segment EBITDA ($M) Canadian Coal $273 $373 $309 $386 U.S. Coal $211 $148 $66 $62 Gas $275 $312 $327 $309 Wind $163 $151 $180 $177 Hydro $105 $127 $147 $85 Energy Marketing $101 ($13) $61 $76 Corporate Segment ($84) ($83) ($67) $(59) Comparable EBITDA ($M) $1,044 $1,016 $1,024 $1,036 Comparable FFO ($M) $812 $788 $729 $762 20
21 Sustaining Capex by Business Segment Sustaining Capital $M Business Segment Generation Segment Canadian Coal $121 $316 $237 $211 U.S. Coal $63 $32 $16 $12 Gas $69 $49 $58 $63 Wind $7 $4 $9 $12 Hydro $32 $14 $14 $21 Corporate $27 $24 $22 $23 Sustaining Capital $319 $439 $341 $342 21
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