Risk compensation and measuring mobility and safety

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1 Risk compensation and measuring mobility and safety 1

2 7 Risk compensation and the problem of measuring children s independent mobility and safety on the roads John Adams The road safety literature offers many examples of risk compensation : people respond to or compensate for perceived changes in the dangers to which they are exposed. All motorists alive today slow down when they come to a sharp bend in the road. An important consequence of this phenomenon is that accident statistics provide a misleading measure of safety or danger. In Britain there are now half as many children killed every year in road accidents as there were in 1922, despite a more than 25-fold increase in traffic. The explanation for this decrease in children s road accident fatalities is not, as some would maintain, that roads have become safer but that they have become so dangerous that children have been progressively withdrawn from them. As Hillman s earlier paper has shown, our surveys of English primary school children in 1971 and 1990 reveal large decreases in their freedom to travel independently. In 1971, 80 per cent of 7 and 8 year old children got to school on their own unaccompanied by an adult. By 1990 this figure had dropped to 9 per cent. The principal cause of this decrease is their parents fear of traffic. Parents are compensating on behalf of their children. Interpreting accident statistics There is much dispute and confusion in the road accident literature about the impact of various safety measures. The long-term editor of one of the most highly regarded scientific journals in the field 1 has observed: One sees time and again large sums of money spent [on road safety] in industrialised countries, the effect of which is so difficult to detect that further sums must be spent in highly sophisticated evaluation techniques if one is to obtain even a clue as to the effectiveness of the intervention. 2 44

3 Risk compensation and measuring mobility and safety Another highly respected authority on the subject expressed the view that: When it comes to managing road safety, we re in the Dark Ages. There s a lot of arm waving but very little knowledge of what works. 3 The road safety literature is full of claims for the efficacy of a wide range of safety measures. Seat belt legislation, compulsory crash helmets, lights-on laws, speed and alcohol limits, vehicle safety regulations, accident blackspot treatment, and road safety training are some for which substantial reductions in accidents have been claimed. But none of the claims stands uncontested. Advocates of engineering solutions are dismissive of the claims made by advocates of behaviour modification, and vice-versa, and some are critical of both. 4 An intractable measurement problem confronts those who seek to measure the efficacy of road safety measures using accident statistics in which non-fatal injuries are included. Within Britain there is wide geographical variation in the proportion of injury accidents that are fatal and, as Figure 1 shows, virtually no correlation between fatalities and injuries. London, for example, has the highest rate of road accident injuries and one of the lowest rates of road accident fatalities. This variation is caused in part by differences in traffic conditions: where congestion is bad, average speeds are likely to be low and accidents more frequent but less severe. Almost certainly, it also reflects variation in the reporting of Figure 1 Road accident death and injury ratio per 100,000 population Source: J.G.U. Adams, Evaluating the effectiveness of road safety measures, Traffic Engineering and Control, June

4 Children, transport and the quality of life injuries. In London, with its relatively high level of policing, minor injuries stand a better chance of becoming official statistics than they do in rural areas, such as Dumfries and Galloway, where one has to travel much further to find a policeman to whom to report. What is not known is the degree to which this geographical variation reflects real differences, and the extent to which it is a recording phenomenon. 5 The same doubts attach to the time series data for injuries and fatalities. According to the official statistics, the road accident fatality rate per 100,000 population in Britain now is about 20 per cent below the level of the mid-1920s, while the injury rate has almost doubled. 6 These could be real differences, explained in part by faster and better medical treatment for road accident casualties. Alternatively, they could be accounted for in part by more thorough recording of minor injuries by the police, and in part by increased incentives, perhaps for insurance reasons, for people to report their injuries. No one appears to know how influential are each of these factors. This is a problem for road safety researchers everywhere; in the German literature the variable under-recording of accidents has also been a recognised problem, acknowledged by the term Dunkelziffer -- dark numbers. Even if all reporting inaccuracies could be removed, the interpretation of the statistics would still not be straightforward. If, for example, Dumfries and Galloway could be transformed in such a way as to make its road accident record more like that of London -- with far more, but less serious, accidents -- would that represent a road safety improvement? Or if we could revert to the accident record of the 1920s -- with more fatalities but far fewer injuries -- would that represent a road safety improvement? Until it can be agreed how many injuries, and of what severity, equal one life, such questions cannot be answered. Safety for whom? Modern cars, as a result of vehicle safety regulations, are much safer than their predecessors: they have better brakes, tyres and suspensions. They are also more crashworthy -- with crumple zones, stronger passenger compartments, padded dashboards, and safety glass. Modern roads are also safer -- with longer sight-lines, more skid resistant surfaces, wider traffic lanes, and margins cleared of dangerous objects. Every year many millions of pounds worth of new road construction is justified, using the Government s cost-benefit formula, on the grounds that it will save lives and injuries. Most of this regulation and expenditure is for the benefit of people inside motor vehicles. Comparatively little money or legislative time is 46

5 Risk compensation and measuring mobility and safety spent on the safety of vulnerable road users -- pedestrians and cyclists. Despite this emphasis on the welfare of people in vehicles, the ratio of vulnerable road user fatalities to vehicle occupant fatalities has been steadily decreasing for over 60 years. In 1927, the first year allowing for analysis, the ratio of pedestrians and cyclists killed for every vehicle occupant killed was 4.7 to 1. By 1991, the ratio had fallen to 0.8 to 1; but for children, the ratio was 2.9 to 1. These differences reflect the large increase in the number of people in cars in which it is safer to have crashes, and the fact that cars are being driven on roads that are more forgiving of heedless driving. In addition, a rising proportion of adults have forsaken walking and cycling for travel by car. Children, on the other hand, except when they are chauffeured by adults, have been left with little choice but to get out of the way of the traffic. The evidence of the surveys presented in One False Move... shows that this is indeed how they have been responding. Road safety measures Table 1 lists current road safety policy aimed at reducing child road deaths. It is based on a range of steps that have been taken or are proposed. 7 There is no clear evidence that any of these measures has reduced or will reduce the number of children killed in road accidents. Education and training form a major component of road safety policy. Justification for such measures is claimed on the grounds that commonsense suggests that [they] must be in the interests of road safety, but it is conceded that no-one has yet been able convincingly to prove it. 8 Publicity forms another major part of the programme, though again there is a dearth of evidence that it has any effect on casualty numbers. In 1986, special publicity campaigns were held in Britain, as part of its contribution to European Road Safety Year, to heighten public awareness of road traffic danger, but the number of road accident fatalities in that year increased by four and a half per cent. A recent study has drawn similar conclusions about the value of publicity and education campaigns. It concludes: from contact with some front-line police and road safety officers, a sense of frustration at the traffic safety profession s inability to effect change in the behaviour of young pedestrians has been detected. This, combined with the fact that it is also remarkably difficult to assess the efficacy of education, training and publicity, or implement effective engineering remedial measures for young pedestrians, and the repetitiveness and similarity in the pattern with which these accidents occur, induces a sense of futility in those involved. 9 47

6 Children, transport and the quality of life Table 1 Road Safety measures aimed at reducing road casualties among children * Safer roads -- measures to slow traffic near schools and in residential areas by means of speed limits and road humps, high visibility guard rails, and measures to engineer out the accident potential of roads. * More careful driving -- publicity to make drivers more aware of their responsibility to drive more carefully. * Pre-school training -- supported by commercial sponsors and with monitoring by the TRRL on its effectiveness. * Pedestrian training -- schemes in schools using the Green Cross Code, and involving more parents. * Safer cycling -- encouragement of improved cycle education and training and promotion of the use of cycle helmets. * Education -- development of responsible attitudes to safety, including the introduction of road safety into the National Curriculum, and promotion of a Safe Journey to School project. * Conspicuity -- encouragement of the use of brightly coloured fluorescent and reflective clothing for school uniforms and other children s clothing. * Safety in cars -- compulsory wearing of seat belts by children in rear seats (which became law in September 1989). * Safety in buses -- regulation that all buses and mini-buses are fitted with seat belts after reaching agreement with the EC. * Riding safety -- encouragement of better training for riders and protective headgear use. * Publicity -- campaigns to raise awareness of the importance of road safety. In 1991 total road accident fatalities decreased by 12.5 per cent and road accident injuries decreased by 8.8 per cent. These are the largest annual decreases since the war years when fuel shortages removed large numbers of vehicles from the roads. Frustratingly for road safety campaigners, it is not possible to attribute the decreases in 1991 to any of the safety measures introduced in that year. Indeed, 1991 was a quiet year on the road safety front in terms of the implementation of new safety measures. Table 2 presents the most significant new safety interventions in 1991 listed in Road Accidents Great Britain 1991, and the associated casualty effects where available from published sources. A more plausible explanation for the record decrease in casualties in 1991, than any actions on the part of the Department of Transport or other safety organisations, is that the decrease coincided with the most severe recession since the war. There is clear evidence that road accident casualties go up and down with the economy

7 Risk compensation and measuring mobility and safety Table 2 Road safety measures implemented in 1991 * twelve 20mph zones introduced -- the decrease in casualties in built-up areas was less than the overall decrease of 8.8 per cent, * 31 million allocated for local safety schemes -- a sum equal to the value of 41 fatal accidents in a DoT cost-benefit analysis, * chevron markings tried out on the M1, * trials of nearside pedestrian signal at junctions, * launch of The Older Road User -- the decrease in casualties for those over age 65 was less than the overall decrease, * campaign to encourage wearing of cycle helmets by children -- decrease in cycling casualties to ages 0-15 less than overall decrease, * change in law requiring adults in rear seats to wear belts in cars where belts are fitted and available -- comparable statistics not available, but decrease in total rear seat casualties less than overall decrease, * campaign to encourage drivers to slow down in areas where children are likely to be about -- decrease in casualties suffered by pedestrians and cyclists age 0-15 less than overall decrease. Risk compensation Risk compensation is a premise based on a metaphor. It assumes that we all have risk thermostats -- as illustrated by Figure 2. The premise proposes that everyone has a propensity to take risks, this propensity varies from one individual to another, this propensity is influenced by the potential rewards of risk-taking, perceptions of risk are influenced by experience of accident losses, one s own and others, individual risk-taking decisions represent a balancing act in which perceptions of risk are weighed against a propensity to take risks, accident losses are, by, definition, a consequence of taking risks, and therefore the more risks an individual takes, the greater, on average, will be both the losses he incurs and the rewards he reaps. The propensity to take risks -- the box in the upper left hand corner of Figure 2 -- represents the setting of the thermostat. This setting varies from one individual to the next. Some like it hot. Some like it cool. But no one wants absolute zero. We all want some excitement in our lives. The box labelled accidents is the focus of most research on risk. Reducing the numbers of accidents is the objective of this work; its funding 49

8 Children, transport and the quality of life Figure 2 The risk thermostat is justified by the expectation of success. The model of risk-taking behaviour displayed in Figure 2 suggests that these expectations are unlikely to be realised. Accidents are the inevitable consequence of risk-taking. If a large number of people were to take a specified number of risks of a specified magnitude, the accident outcome would be highly predictable. This knowledge is routinely and profitably applied in the casino business. In the casino of life, however, matters are less carefully controlled. The odds are rarely known precisely and objectively -- as they can be with an honest roulette wheel or deck of cards. Action is guided by perceptions. The perceived benefits of risk-taking are various. Money, love and glory are spurs to high risk activity that are given ample publicity by the press and television, and some of these spurs are to a degree objectively measurable. But knowing the prize money at stake in a Grand Prix race or the amount of danger money paid to an oil company s deep-sea divers is of only limited help in understanding their motives and behaviour. Love and glory have no agreed metrics by which detached observers of risk-taking behaviour might capture their magnitudes. Some of the rewards take the form of instinctive impulses -- of the sort that make cats curious and stags lock horns. The need for some minimal level of arousal appears to be common to all animal species and to lead in some circumstances to risk-taking for its own sake. Hormone levels have been invoked to account for some forms of risk-taking behaviour. The boundary between behaviour that is learned and consciously goal-seeking 50

9 Risk compensation and measuring mobility and safety on the one hand, and behaviour that is instinctive or biologically driven on the other, remains indistinct but, in an uncertain world, all behaviour is risk-taking behaviour. The theory of risk compensation suggests that safety measures which reduce risk to levels below the setting of the risk thermostat will be countered by behaviour which reasserts the levels with which people were originally content. If the propensity, or willingness, to take risks is the principal determinant of the accident rate then this rate can only be reduced by measures that reduce the propensity. Parents of young children attempt this all the time. The safety of infants is guarded by engineering methods. They are kept behind bars in cots and playpens, and their surroundings rendered as foolproof as possible by doing things like covering electrical outlets and removing dangerous objects. Children quickly outgrow such safety solutions. Then begins a protracted and anxious period of training and attitude inculcation during which children are led to assume a steadily growing share of responsibility for the safety of themselves and others. This process involves the establishment of norms of acceptable behaviour and the use of punishments for violating these norms. Gradually parental authority weakens. The most dangerous time, measured by the accidental death rates, is between the ages of 15 and 20, a period during which full responsibility is usually handed over. To the extent that children of primary school age are more closely controlled than they used to be, as we have shown in One False Move..., it is mainly parents willingness to take risks, rather than children s, that determines child road death rates. The reduction in the death rates of primary schoolchildren and the sharp increase thereafter (see Figure 4 later), suggests that parents risk-taking propensities on behalf of their children are lower than those of the children themselves. There is now substantial evidence that the effect of risk compensation has been to shift part of the burden of risk from people in vehicles to vulnerable road users outside vehicles, leaving the total number killed in road accidents that could be attributed to seat belt legislation little changed. An early internal report by the Department of Transport which examined the effects of seat belt legislation in eight West European countries concluded that it has not led to a detectable change in the death rate. 11 A more recent independent Dutch study arrived at the same conclusion: Time-series analysis was performed on car driver [and passenger] fatality rates for eight West European countries that passed seat belt legislation in the seventies. There was no discernible effect of the legislation on the fatality rates

10 Children, transport and the quality of life There is also compelling evidence that the small and temporary departure from the trend of road accident fatalities in Britain in the year that seat belt legislation was introduced was associated with the campaign against drinking and driving in the same year, and not with the seat belt law. 13 There is reason to suppose that risk compensation will also frustrate the expectations associated with that part of the current road safety programme aimed at requiring seat belts in buses and mini-buses. In Germany, risk compensation has been enshrined in the law governing the permitted speed of coaches. Those fitted with belts are allowed to travel faster than those without. 14 In the case of very young children in the back seats of cars, risk compensation is obvious to every parent/motorist. Anyone who has ever driven with a very young unrestrained child on the back seat is aware of the need to drive as though one had a crate of eggs on the bonnet. Too sudden acceleration, braking, or turning would cause the child to topple over. With the child secured, however, most drivers revert to their more normal -- less gentle -- style of driving. Figure 3, comparing casualty statistics for the year before the law compelling children in the rear seats of cars to wear seat belts came into effect, that is 1989, with the year after, shows that the number of children killed and injured in rear seats increased after the law. The figure places this increase in the context of the overall changes to casualties in the same year. It can be seen that the increase in casualties to children in rear seats was greater than the overall increases in the same period. Figure 3 Rear seat belts for children: the effect of compulsion in

11 Risk compensation and measuring mobility and safety The case for risk compensation resulting from the wearing of helmets for cycling or riding was in effect made in the promotion of a Bill in the House of Commons requiring the compulsory wearing of helmets by all horse riders under the age of 14. The effect of wearing a new protective helmet was described in the following terms: It was comfortable, felt safe and gave extra confidence to this rider, as I am sure that it could to everyone else. I commend the Bill to the House. (Harry Greenaway, MP, Hansard, 27 April 1990, col.677) Another consequence of compulsory helmet legislation is that it leads to a reduction in cycling -- probably caused in part by the addition to the cost of cycling, in part by the dislike of helmets on the part of some cyclists, and in part the inconvenience of having to carry this added piece of equipment at all times. In Australia, following the introduction of a helmet law, there was a 41 per cent reduction in recreational cycling, a 37 per cent reduction in cycle commuting to Melbourne and a 44 per cent reduction among year olds in Victoria. 15 There is no evidence that fluorescent or reflective clothing has reduced child road accident deaths, nor of evidence of its effect on behaviour. However, risk compensation suggests that cyclists and pedestrians, confident of being seen, might cycle or walk in places and in ways in which they would not otherwise if they felt invisible to motorists. It also suggests that, as such clothing becomes more widely used and more widely anticipated by motorists, those without it will be placed in relatively greater danger. Finally, attempts to engineer out the accident potential of roads also have a record of dubious achievement. Anti-skid treatment, for example, is sometimes proffered as a successful engineering measure but there exists very clear evidence that drivers compensate for slippery road surfaces. 16 Perhaps the most compelling evidence of all is the large drop in road accident fatalities that occurs in winter at times when road conditions are at their worst and skid resistance at its least predictable. More generally, the case that modern road engineering standards have saved lives has been challenged 17 and, as far as we are aware, remains unanswered. The Lawson report referred to earlier on the effectiveness of education, training and publicity, identifies pedestrian accidents as one of the most difficult types of road accident for which an engineering treatment can be found. 18 It is argued that this is because it is so difficult to curb or control the pedestrian s flexibility in movement, manoeuvrability and direction, agility and acceleration. On minor roads, pedestrian accidents are extremely widely scattered, and where concentrations are found on major 53

12 Children, transport and the quality of life Figure 4 Road accident death rates in England and Wales per 100,000 population in age groups 0-14 and years, 1922 and 1986 roads, suitable treatment is inhibited by the competing needs of keeping the traffic flowing. 19 Figure 4 shows that the road accident death rate for children has fallen as traffic has increased. There is no evidence that any of the measures listed in Table 1 deserve the credit, or are likely to be effective in future. The evidence presented in One False Move... suggests that the most important causes of the decrease have been: a) the increased confinement of children in secure areas, such as homes, gardens, schools and playgrounds; b) the increased escorting of children by adults when they are outside these secure areas; and c) the increased use of cars on these journeys. Evidence from Germany suggests a partial caveat. Our survey shows that German parents feel more confident about allowing their children to get about on their own, and that they allow them considerably more independence. This confidence is supported by lower German child pedestrian fatality rates. However, our licence measures do not capture a significant aspect of the restraint imposed upon German children. It has been suggested to us that German parents are more willing to let their children out because they know that the whole German nation will tut-tut if the children do anything wrong. In England, child supervision appears to be a more private family affair, whereas in Germany it seems to have been collectivised to a much greater degree. 54

13 Risk compensation and measuring mobility and safety Nevertheless, in both countries, as this supervision -- private or collective -- comes to an end in the mid-teen years and young people acquire access to cars and motorcycles, there is a massive increase in road accident death rates. Figure 4 shows that since 1922 the child road accident death rate has halved despite a more than 25-fold increase in traffic. Over the same time for those age 15-19, the death rate has increased four-fold. Licences At the age of 16 in Britain one can get a licence to ride a moped and, at 17, a licence to drive a car. These age limits are usually justified on the grounds that a certain degree of maturity of judgement and physical competence should be attained before a person can be permitted to put his or her own life, and the lives of others, at risk on the public highway. They represent both an official acknowledgement of the danger of traffic and a response to it. In addition to these official licences, a variety of other licences to get about independently are issued, progressively with the age of the child, though in these instances by parents. The ages at which these parental licences are granted reflect parents judgements about the degree of maturity required by their children to cope safely with the perceived dangers that lie outside the home. Hillman s overview paper included the findings of the surveys reported in One False Move... which showed a dramatic decrease in the last two decades in the proportion of children licensed by their parents to get around on their own, and the substantial increase in the extent of car chauffeuring. It recorded parental fear of traffic as the main reason for these changes. Conclusions A recent report by a scientific group of experts from 16 countries examined the evidence for risk compensation and concluded that controversy now centred on the interpretation of what causes it, and how complete it is, not on whether it occurs. 20 It is clear that confidence in safety devices -- whether they be helmets, seat belts, safety ropes for climbers, or safety nets for trapeze artists -- affects behaviour. People respond in a way that tends to nullify the intended effect of the device. Safety measures that ignore this tendency almost always disappoint their promoters. Yet Britain s Department of Transport continues to ignore risk compensation and its implications. Last year Patrick Brown, Permanent Secretary of the Department of Transport, said funds for traffic calming will be judged on casualty savings, not environmental improvements or anxiety relief. 55

14 Children, transport and the quality of life Casualty rates also determine whether or not a road is eligible for a reduced speed limit. At present, if a road does not have a fatal accident rate above 1.2 per million vehicle miles on it, it does not qualify. In Speed Limits Criteria: a consultation document, the Department accepts that this criterion fails to take sufficient account of the impact that vehicles can have on the local environment and quality of life, especially in communities which suffer from large volumes of fast through-traffic. However, having nodded in the direction of risk compensation, the Department still proposes to retain casualty savings as the sole criterion of eligibility for government help in reducing speeds. Before a limit on a particular road can be reduced, the proposed new criteria require that the road should be modified physically to reduce vehicle speeds; and these measures would be eligible for funding only if they address a casualty problem. If, as abundant evidence now shows, road accident statistics provide a misleading measure of safety and danger, what might be used in their place? Figure 2 illustrated the problem of finding a clear, unambiguous, objective measure. Individuals are guided by their propensities to take risk and their perceptions of danger; but neither of these variables can be measured directly. There is not even agreement about the units in which they might be measured. Accidents can be counted, but most of them -- the least serious ones -- are not; and there is no agreed common denominator to permit the aggregation of bent bumpers, bruised knees and fatalities into a meaningful measure of accident loss. The rewards of risk-taking -- money, love, glory, adrenalin, time-saving etc. -- present even more intractable measurement problems for the objective scientist. Probably the least subjective of the relevant variables set out in Figure 2 is balancing behaviour. In One False Move... we proposed the group of behavioural measures set out in Table 3 which address both concern for children s safety and concern that they recover the individual freedoms that the previous two papers suggest may be crucial to their development. The anxiety that the Department of Transport does not deign to provide funds to relieve is another name for perceived danger. The behavioural reactions to the perceived danger of traffic are as real and objective as the accidents that the Department records. Indicators such as those proposed in Table 3, measured regularly at numerous widely dispersed locations, would provide a reminder of some large and neglected costs of our growing dependence on the car. 56

15 Risk compensation and measuring mobility and safety Table 3 Proposed measures of safety and freedom * Proportion of children of various ages who are allowed to i) cross roads on their own ii) come home from school on their own iii) use buses on their own iv) cycle on main roads. * The average time that a random sample of pedestrians takes to cross roads of various classes in peak and off-peak hours. * The annual number of hours spent escorting the average child. References and notes 1. The journal Accident Analysis and Prevention. 2. F.A. Haight, The Developmental Stages of Motorization: Implications for Safety, Pennsylvania Transportation Institute, Penn. State University, E. Hauer, quoted in the Toronto Globe and Mail, 12 November See, for instance, J.G.U. Adams, Risk and Freedom: the record of road safety regulation, Transport Publishing Projects, 1985, Chapters 3 to 7; discussion of the paper by A.C. Harvey and J. Durbin, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A, Vol.149, Part 3, 1986, pp ; Objectives for Road Safety Research, Proceedings of Seminar D, PTRC Summer Annual Meeting, 1987; Risk homeostasis and the purpose of safety regulation, Ergonomics, Vol.31, No.4, 1987, pp ; Evaluating the Effectiveness of Safety Measures, Chapter 10 in J. Handmer and E. Penning Rowsell (eds), Hazards and the Communication of Risk, Gower, J.G.U. Adams, Evaluating the effectiveness of road safety measures, Traffic Engineering and Control, June 1988, pp Annual series published by the Department of Transport. 7. Department of Transport, Children and Roads: a Safer Way, Department of Transport, Road Safety: the Next Steps, 1988, p Stephen D. Lawson, Accidents to Young Pedestrians: Distributions, Circumstances, Consequences and Scope for Countermeasures, AA Foundation for Road Safety Research and Birmingham City Council, 1990, p J.G.U. Adams, Risk and Freedom: the record of road safety regulation, 1985, Chapter J.E. Isles, Seat Belt Savings: Implications of European Statistics, STG Division of DoT, 1981, and New Scientist, 7 February,

16 Children, transport and the quality of life 12. W.H. Janssen, The Effect of Seat Belt Legislation on Fatality Rates in a Number of West European Countries, Report Number 1ZF, , TNO Institute for Perception, Soesterberg, Netherlands. 13. J.G.U. Adams, Seat belts: the safety myth, Surveyor, 7 February 1991, pp.10-11, and Safety in numbers, Surveyor, 16 April 1992, p Reported in Care on the Road, Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents, March J. Whitelegg and R. Davis, British Medical Journal, 12 December 1992, Vol. 305, p See J.G.U. Adams, Risk and Freedom, pp J.G.U. Adams, Evaluating the effectiveness of road safety measures, Traffic Engineering and Control, June 1988, pp Stephen D. Lawson, op.cit. 19. Ibid. 20. OECD, Behavioural Adaptations to Changes in the Road Transport System, OECD, 1990, p

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