CARGO E-CHARTBOOK Q OVERVIEW

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1 CARGO E-CHARTBOOK Q 4 OVERVIEW Air freight volumes continue to show solid gains on a year ago, supported by economic improvements in some regions, but high jet fuel prices and overall weakness in yields kept cargo financial performance from improving so far this year. Emerging Asia trade volumes have rebounded after weakness in Q and consumers in the US are more optimistic about future economic performance. These developments have supported growth in demand for air-freighted commodities like semi-conductors. However, in Europe consumer confidence and trade activity have weakened due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis, which could weaken air freight demand in months ahead. Business confidence continues to point to expansion, but rates of improvements are still weaker than year-end. And although jet fuel prices have eased slightly, they remain high at about $/bb. On the positive side, yields appear to be stabilizing and are up slightly on a year ago, which could reduce downward pressure on financial performance in months ahead. Consistent with more supportive demand conditions in some regions, cargo heads surveyed in July expect growth in traffic and yields to pick-up during the year ahead. Economic Situation the economic outlook for 4 remains improved on, but expectations have been revised down slightly, mostly due to weather-related slowdown in the US in early-4 (page ) Traffic Growth traffic volumes are up 4-5% on a year ago, but other than a solid rise in July, the trend has been broadly flat throughout 4. Growth ahead could be dampened by trends in production which suggest a shift toward domestic activity (page ) Demand Environment remains supportive, but recent months have shown diverging developments across regions. World trade volumes have rebounded in Asia, but have fallen in Europe as a result of the Russia- Ukraine crisis. Business confidence continues to signal expansion in manufacturing activity, but rates of improvement still track at a slower pace than those seen toward the end of (page ) Demand Drivers are mostly positive but also show regional divergence. In China, consumer confidence remains stable and is improving in the US, but European consumers have become more pessimistic over recent months. Capital spending intentions of companies in the UK and Japan remain positive on balance, but have weakened slightly in Japan compared to Q (page ) Capacity improvements in freight load factors have moderated in 4 but aircraft utilization rates are showing some signs of improvement. However, pressure on aircraft utilization remains could intensify, with new aircraft deliveries set to expand the existing widebody fleet by more than 7% in 4 (page 4) Competition air freight rates are stable but show now improvement on a year ago. By contrast, sea freight rates have improved, supported by strength in container shipping in the Americas and Asia (page 4) Revenue and Yields air freight yields appear to have stabilized, and have some improvement on a year ago. This could alleviate some downward pressure on cargo business financial performance (page 5) Costs jet fuel prices have eased slight, but remain high at about $/bbl. Nominal wage rates continue to fall in Europe and China, but have been on the rise in the US (page 5) Profitability outlook consistent with some improvement in demand conditions in Q compared to H, heads of cargo surveyed in July expect stronger growth in traffic and yields over the next months (page 5) IATA Economics

2 Cargo echartbook Q 4 Economic Outlook & Traffic Growth The global economic outlook for 4 remains improved on (), but there has been yet another downward revision to the outlook since the start of the year. The global outlook has been dampened by weaker than expected performance of the US economy, which was negatively impacted by extreme weather earlier this year. Recent indicators, however, point to rising employment and growth in manufacturing. Despite recent impacts of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on the Eurozone recovery, the region is expected to grow much more strongly in 4 compared to. Europe and the US are now expected to expand at similar rates in 4, even though the US has enjoyed relatively looser bank lending standards (). Tightening fiscal policy in both the US and Europe will ensure that growth remains well below that of emerging market economies. Air freight volumes remain 4-5% above year ago levels, supported by cyclical improvements in economic growth. However, stronger economic growth in 4 has not generated the expansion of international trade that it would have done in the past, as production has been on-shored () partly due to market factors such as rising wages in low cost economies and partly due to a recent rise in protectionist measures. The Bali trade deal on trade facilitation may help to improve this situation Forecasts for GDP growth Source: EIU Freight Traffic Growth Source: IATA, ACI Domestic Freight Volumes (ACI) International Freight Volumes (ACI) International FTKs (IATA) - US Japan Euro Area ASPAC excl Japan Latin America Middle East North Africa Sub- Saharan Africa World -8 Difference in % GDP over previous year Goverment Cyclically Adjusted Fiscal Balance Source: IMF United States 4 Euro Area Japan China India Russia Brazil Tightening Loosening % 5% 4% % % % % -% -% -% -4% 5. International Freight growth by major routes Source: IATA ODS Europe - Far East Within Far East North Atlantic North and Mid Pacific % banks 8 4 European Banks US Banks. Bank credit conditions Source: ECB, Federal Reserve Tighter Credit Standards 8 4 % banks...9. Ratio of World Trade to Domestic Industrial Production Source: Netherlands CPB Looser Credit Standards IATA Economics:

3 Cargo echartbook Q 4 Demand Environment & Drivers The demand environment for air cargo remains supportive, but recent months have shown diverging developments across regions. World trade volumes have recovered after weakness earlier in the year (7), and that is largely due to a rebound in Emerging Asia trade activity. However, there is evidence of weakness in European trade, reflecting the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Business confidence continues to signal expansion in manufacturing activity, but rates of improvement still track at a slower pace than those seen toward the end of (8). There has been no change in inventory to sales ratios (9) suggesting businesses still have no immediate need to reduce their reliance on quick transportation of cargo. Demand drivers remain positive overall, but are also showing signs of regional divergence. In China, consumer confidence remains stable, and there has been further increase in optimism about the economic outlook in the US. By contrast, European consumers have become more pessimistic over recent months, reflecting the adverse impacts of the Russia-Ukraine crisis (). Nonetheless, demand drivers remain improved on a year ago, and this continues to support stronger demand for air-freighted commodities, as indicated by expansion in semi-conductor shipments (). Capital expenditure intentions of companies in the UK and Japan remain positive on balance, but have declined slightly in Japan (). Billion FTKs World trade in goods and air FTKs Source: Netherlands CPB and IATA (Seasonally Adjusted) International FTKs (left scale) World goods trade volumes (right scale) 4 9 index of world trade, 5= % Growth, Semi-Conductor Shipments Semi-Conductor Shipments and Air Freight Source: IATA, SIA International FTKs Semi-Conductor Shipments % growth - International FTKs % Growth YoY 8. Purchasing Managers confidence survey and Air Freight Demand Source: IATA, Markit/JP Morgan JP Morgan Manufactuerers PMI (+ months) International FTKs Balance expecting improvement, index 8 4. Consumer confidence Source: Haver Analytics China US Europe (right scale) Balance expecteting improvement, net % Inventories to sales ratio Total Business inventories to sales ratio and FTKs Source: US Census Bureau and IATA Inventories to sales ratio FTKs FTKs (billion) Net balance intending to increase investment Capital spending intentions Source: Haver Analytics UK business (left scale) Japan business (right scale) Net balance intending to increase investment IATA Economics:

4 Cargo echartbook Q 4 Capacity & Competition Improvements in freight load factors have moderated in 4 (4) due to increases in capacity through the passenger business (), but aircraft utilization rates are showing some signs of improvement (4). The freighter fleet has been stable (). However, with an expected 4% increase in 4 of deliveries of new twin-aisle aircraft with belly hold capacity, there could be some downward pressure on aircraft utilization rates ahead more than 7% will be added to the existing widebody fleet. Air freight rates are stable but have not improved on a year ago (7). Demand for Asian goods moved by air remains stable there has been no growth on this key air freight market when compared to the pre-crisis peak (). By contrast, sea freight rates are showing some improvement. Demand for container shipping has been strongest in the Americas and Asia (8). Number of aircraft Freighter fleet in service. Cargo fleet composition Source: IATA, Ascend Widebody pax fleet in service 5% 4% % % % % -% Asia to EU by sea EU to Asia by sea Asia to EU by air EU to Asia by air. EU Trade with Asia % change from pre-crisis peak June 8 - Seasonally adjusted monthly data in tonne (Source: International Transport Forum) 7 -% 5 -% -4% End of year totals End of month totals Average daily hours flown Freight load factor and freighter aircraft utilization (Seasonally adjusted) (Source: IATA, Boeing) Freight Load Factor Freight aircraft utilization 5% 5% 49% 47% 45% 4% 4% 9% 7% % available freight tonne capacity % 8% % 4% % % -% -4% -% 7. Ocean container and air freight rate growth Source: Drewry, CASS Ocean container Air freight Number of Aircraft Twin Aisle Aircraft Deliveries by Airline Region Source: Ascend Other Middle East North America Europe Asia Pacific % Growth, Year-on-Year Container Shipping Volume Growth by Region Source: Drewry Jun- May-4 Jun North America Europe South East Asia Middle East Latin America IATA Economics: 4

5 Cargo echartbook Q 4 Revenues, Costs & Profits Air freight yields appear to have stabilized, and are showing slight improvement on a year ago (9). This could help reduce downward pressure on profitability, but cargo business financial performance remains weak ( & ). Jet fuel prices have eased slightly since the most recent mid-year peak. Although there has been concern over supply disruptions, the demand outlook has also weakened, particularly in Europe, and that has caused crude oil prices to slip. Nonetheless, jet fuel prices remain high at around $/bbl (). While nominal wage rates have stabilized in Europe and China, they are showing some increase in the US as a result of improving employment conditions (). Consistent with some improvement in demand conditions in Q compared to H, heads of cargo surveyed in July 4 expect stronger growth in traffic volumes over the next months as well as some increase in cargo yields (4). US$ per kilo Air Freight Yields (US$ per kilo) Source: IATA CASS SE Asia-Europe SE Asia - Europe (incl. Other charges) Global total - LHS Global (incl. Other charges) - LHS US$ per kilo % of Revenues % % 8% % 4% % % -% -4%. Profitability of US Cargo Only Airlines Source: US BTS Operating Profit Margin Net Profit Margin. Jet Fuel and Crude Oil Price ($/barrel) (Source: Platts, RBS) Global Airline Industry Cargo Revenues Source: ICAO, IATA 4% Jet fuel price Crude oil price (Brent) Revenues (US$ billion) 45 5 Cargo Revenues % Growth % % % % -% -% -5 -% % Growth E % Growth y-o-y in nominal wages 4F Nominal Wage Growth Source: Thomsom Reuters DataStream, Haver Analytics USA European Union China P.R % Growth y-o-y in nominal wages (China) Weighted Score IATA survey of heads of cargo Source: IATA Yields - next months Volumes - next months Increase Decrease IATA Economics: 5

6 Cargo echartbook Q 4 Air Freight Routes and Direction Table. International Freight Volume Growth by Route Area (Source: IATA ODS statistics) % Growth in Freight Tonnes, year-on-year Route Area Jan-4 Feb-4 Mar-4 Apr-4 May-4 Jun-4 Africa - Middle East.8%.8%.% 7.% 5.9% 5.9% Europe - Far East 9.% 4.% 8.8%.% 8.%.% Europe - Middle East 4.%.9%.% -.% -4.% -.7% Within Far East.%.% 7.% 7.5% 9.% 8.9% Within Middle East.%.%.%.%.%.% Within South America -.5% 9.% -.% -8.% -5.7% -8.% Mid Atlantic 9.%.%.% -5.% -.9% -8.% Middle East - Far East 8.9% 8.%.% 7.% 5.5%.% North Atlantic 4.8% 8.%.5% 7.4% 8.%.8% North America-Central America -.% -8.% -.% 9.% -.9% -8.8% Europe - Africa -.5%.4% 4.8% 5.7% 9.% 4.4% North America South America 5.4%.7% -.8% -5.%.7% -.% Far East - Southwest Pacific.% -4.5% 4.9% -.7% -4.% -.9% North and Mid Pacific 4.% 5.7% 7.7%.%.% 5.% South Atlantic.%.5%.%.% 8.%.% Within Europe.5% 4.5% -.% -.%.7% -4.5% Table. Outbound CASS Market Revenues (incl. fuel and other surcharges) % Growth in Air Freight Revenues, year-on-year US$m Origin Region Q 4 Q Q Q Q4 4 Q 4 Q Africa 9 -% 5% 4% -% % -5% Asia Pacific 58-8% -8% -4% -8% -4% 7% Europe 9 % % 4% % % 7% Latin America & The Carribean 47 -% -% -% -% % % Middle East & North Africa 45 8% 8% 7% 4% 8% 9% North Asia 4-7% -% % % % % North Atlantic & North America 9-7% -% -8% -4% -% % Table. Inbound CASS Market Revenues (incl. fuel and other surcharges) US$m % Growth in Air Freight Revenues, year-on-year Destination Region Q 4 Q Q Q Q4 4 Q 4 Q Africa 459-8% -% -4% -% -% 7% Asia Pacific 89-7% -7% -% % 4% 5% Europe 749 -% -% % 8% 7% 9% Latin America & The Carribean 7-4% % -% -% -% % Middle East & North Africa % -% % 4% % -7% North Asia 84 5% -% -5% % % 5% North Atlantic & North America 9-8% -4% % % % 5% IATA Economics:

7 Cargo echartbook Q 4 Glossary ACI: Airports Council International AFTK: Available Freight Tonne Kilometers European CB: European Central Bank EIU: Economist Intelligence Unit CASS: Cargo Accounts Settlement System FT: Financial Times FTK: Freight Tonne Kilometers PMI: Purchasing Managers Index Netherlands CPB: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis ODS: Origin-Destination Statistics SIA: Semiconductors Industry Association US BTS: US Bureau of Transportation Statistics M-o-m Month over month percentage change Y-o-y Year over year percentage change IATA Economics 7 th September 4 IATA Economics: 7

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