Market analysis of new routes launched vs. routes cancelled

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1 Market analysis of new routes launched vs. routes cancelled World Low Cost Airlines Congress - London 17 September 2012 Ralph Anker Editor anna.aero

2 Overview of presentation - I How do 31 of the world s leading LCCs compare in terms of starting (and stopping) routes: Between August 2011 and August 2012 Taking a closer look at: Asia: AirAsia (3), Cebu Pacific, GoAir, IndiGo, Jetstar, Lion Air, Spicejet, Tiger Airways Europe: easyjet, germanwings, Jet2.com, Monarch, Norwegian, Pegasus, Ryanair, Transavia.com, Vueling, Wizz Air Middle East: Air Arabia, flydubai North America: Allegiant Air, JetBlue, Southwest, Spirit Airlines, WestJet South America: GOL, Interjet, vivaaerobus, Volaris 2

3 Overview of presentation - II Figures distorted by: Airline code changes (easyjet Switzerland) Permanent airport closures: Bucharest Baneasa Temporary airport closures in S11: Venice Treviso New airport: Warsaw Modlin Seasonality issues: LCCs v Legacy carriers in Europe Growing head-to-head competition With legacy carrier With other LCCs Summary 3

4 4 Source: Diio Mi analysis of Innovata data

5 LCC route launches - I Ryanair (300 involving 127 airports, average WF=3.5) New bases in Budapest (Feb 12), Palma de Mallorca, Billund, Karlsruhe-Baden, Wroclaw, Paphos (all summer 2012) Most new routes from Budapest (30), Venice Treviso* (29), Palma (25), Girona (21), Manchester (21), Barcelona (16) easyjet (140, average WF=5.2) New bases at Nice (8), Toulouse (7) and London Southend (9) Swiss operations now under U2 code (BSL 31, GVA 40) Wizz Air (71, average WF=3.9) Moved flights from Bucharest BBU to Bucharest OTP (23) Moved flights from Warsaw WAW to Warsaw Modlin WMI (20) Expansion at Budapest after Malev s demise (11) Resumed flights at Venice Treviso 5

6 LCC route launches - II Vueling (55, average WF=4.4) Expanded Barcelona base considerably (29) Growth at Palma (8) and Bilbao (7) Norwegian (47, average WF=2.9) General expansion at Oslo (12), Oslo Torp (9), Copenhagen (8), Stockholm Arlanda (5) and Trondheim (5) SpiceJet (46, average WF=7.6) Acquisition of Q400s to launch raft of thinner routes (30) Southwest (29, average WF=12.6) Started own services from AirTran s base at Atlanta (11) Expansion in Denver (7) and Milwaukee (5) 6

7 LCC route launches - III Allegiant Air (28, average WF=2.3) Expansion at Orlando Sanford (11), Oakland (6), Phoenix-Mesa (4) Launch of flights to Hawaii germanwings (28, average WF=4.5) Expansion at Cologne/Bonn (12), Stuttgart (8) Service to Pristina from six airports (incl. FRA, DUS, MUC) Spirit Airlines (28, average WF=9.0) New base at Dallas/Fort Worth (13) Expansion in Chicago O Hare (7) and Las Vegas (6) Jet2.com (25, average WF=2.2) Expansion at Glasgow (7), Newcastle (5), Leeds/Bradord (4), Manchester (3), East Midlands (3) 7

8 8 Source: Diio Mi analysis of Innovata data

9 LCCs not averse to dropping routes All airlines spend lots of time and effort promoting new routes BUT if they don t perform LCCs in particular are not averse to terminating routes, even if they have only been operating a few weeks. Analysis of 31 LCCs for routes dropped in the last 12 months Can you guess who comes top of the rankings? 9

10 10 Source: Diio Mi analysis of Innovata data

11 LCC routes dropped S12 v S11 - I Ryanair (154 involving 96 airports) Venice VCE routes went back to Venice TSF (28) [runway works] Major cutbacks in Spain: Alicante (18), Reus (14), Seville (9), Girona (8), Malaga (5) airport charges issue Cuts to Morocco: Marrakech (8), Fez (3) Reductions at Dublin (7), Liverpool (7), Stockholm Skavsta (7) Pegasus (65) airberlin takes over many routes to Germany Wizz Air (52) move from Warsaw WAW to Warsaw Modlin WMI (18) move from Bucharest BBU to Bucharest OTP (20) Move from Venice VCE back to Venice TSF (5) So only 9 routes actually dropped 11

12 LCC routes dropped S12 v S11 - II Allegiant Air (32) Cuts at Orlando Sanford (6), Las Vegas (5), Phoenix-Mesa (5), Los Angeles (4), Long Beach (4) Southwest (32 spread across 24 airports) Cuts evenly distributed across network: Philadelphia (5), Albuquerque (4), Orlando (4), Phoenix (4) lose most routes easyjet (24) Worst effected airports: Madrid (5), London Gatwick (3), London Stansted (3), Manchester (3) Madrid base to close soon Vueling (20) Cuts in Madrid (9) as Iberia Express launches Reductions in Toulouse (4), Ciudad Real (2) 12

13 LCC routes dropped S12 v S11 - III germanwings (19) Dropped routes from Berlin SXF (10 passed to LH assuming BBI was opening!), Cologne/Bonn (6), Hannover (2), Stuttgart (1) Norwegian (18) Dropped routes from Oslo Rygge (6), Oslo (3), Stockholm (3) Dropped six routes to Morocco GOL (16) Transavia.com (16) Dropped routes from Amsterdam (6), Eindhoven (3) Average weekly frequency of dropped routes just

14 14 Source: Diio Mi analysis of Innovata data

15 Growing seasonality issues Ryanair grounds 80 planes in winter headlines last year Fuel prices forcing airlines to consider seasonality issues more closely LCCs even more vulnerable to seasonality because of general focus on leisure market (at least in Europe) How are airlines reacting? 15

16 16 Source: Diio Mi analysis of SRS Analyser data

17 17 Source: Diio Mi analysis of SRS Analyser data

18 LCC routes competition High proportion of new LCC services in Asia on existing routes In Europe Ryanair, Wizz Air tend to start new routes, Monarch and Jet2.com tend to compete on existing easyjet and Vueling at between 50-55% competition Norwegian and germanwings at between 35-40% competition Variation in US from Spirit Airlines (80% competition), to JetBlue (65%), Southwest (50%) and Allegiant Air (<10%) 18

19 19

20 LCCs attacking flag-carriers Spirit Airlines taking on American Airlines at DFW, ORD Southwest taking on Delta in Atlanta Interjet taking on Aeromexico at Mexico CIty easyjet competing with Air France, Iberia, TAP Portugal across Europe Norwegian taking on SAS, Blue1, airbaltic in Scandinavia 20

21 LCCs now fighting each other? Ryanair taking on Wizz Air at Budapest and Warsaw Modlin Five new routes from Cork in November all versus Wizz Air Monarch s new East Midlands services compete with Ryanair and Jet2.com, new Gatwick routes all compete with easyjet Vueling and easyjet competing in France Indian LCCs competing against each other 21

22 Summary LCCs the main driver of new routes in Western/Central Europe, India Major contributor in US, Mexico, Brazil Relatively small impact in Africa, China, Russia LCCs not afraid to abandon underperforming routes Seasonality is a growing concern due to fuel prices More overlap not only with legacy carriers but also increasingly with other LCCs 22

23 Thank you! To keep in touch with all the latest global airline route network news and analysis sign up now for your FREE weekly e-newsletter at If your competitors are reading it (and they are!) shouldn t you see what they know that you don t? 23

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