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1 Emerging Market Bank Lending and Credit Risk Control Evolving Strategies to Mitigate Credit Risk, Optimize Lending Portfolios, and Check Delinquent Loans Leo Onyiriuba ELSEVIER AMSTERDAM BOSTON HEIDELBERG LONDON NEW YORK OXFORD PARIS SAN DIEGO SAN FRANCISCO SINGAPORE SYDNEY TOKYO Academic Press is an imprint of Elsevier

2 Contents About the Author Preface Acknowledgmerits xix xxi xxvii Part I Background, the Setting and Perspective Overview of the Subject Matter 1. Questions in the Making of Emerging Economies and Markets 5 Learning Focus and Outcomes 5 Setting the Scene 6 Risk in Countries Evolving into Emerging Economies 8 Background A Historical Perspective 15 Developed, Developing, and Emerging Economies 17 Lessons of the Asian Tiger, BRICS, and Tiger Economies 18 Strictly Defining Emerging Economies 19 Comparing Emerging Economies with Emerging Markets 22 Questions for Discussion and Review Conceptual Survey of Risk and Its Applications in Banking 25 Learning Focus and Outcomes 25 Creation of Risk A General Overview 26 Defining Risk and Its Relationship to Uncertainty 31 Common Banking Risks in Emerging Economies 34 Bank Credit Risk Management Process An Overview 40 Questions for Discussion and Review 44 Reference 44 Further Reading Insights into Bank Credit Risk Issues in Emerging Economies 45 Learning Focus and Outcomes 45 Defining Bank Credit Risk Crisis in Emerging Economies 46 vii

3 viii Contents The State of Banks Lending and Credit Risk Crisis in Emerging Economies 50 Bank Credit Risk Peculiarities of Emerging Markets 52 Culprits for Bank Credit Risk Crisis in Emerging Markets 56 Illegal Lending and Credit Fraud 59 Questions for Discussion and Review 60 Reference Putting the Bank Lending Process in Emerging Markets into Perspective 63 Learning Focus and Outcomes 63 Characterizing the Credit Process 64 Attracting Appropriate Credits 68 Letter of Application for Loan 69 Acknowledgment of Loan Application 71 Credit Checks and Inquiries 72 Credit Analysis 76 Credit Approval 77 Questions for Discussion and Review Bank Credit versus Equity and Economic Performance of Emerging Markets 79 Learning Focus and Outcomes 79 Issues in Raising Financing for a Business Venture 83 Plan and Private Placement for a Business Venture 86 Financial Appraisal of the Business Plan 91 Frustration of a Noble Business Plan 95 Economic Performance of Emerging Markets 96 Questions for Review and Discussion 99 Appendix 100 Part II Bank Credit Markets, Taxonomies and Risk Control Sources of Lending Transactions and Credit Risk 6. Market Analysis for Credit Risk Control in Emerging Economies Learning Focus and Outcomes 115 Market Segmentation and Analysis 116 Retail Banking Sector 11 7 Consumer and Private Banking Sectors 119 Commercial Banking and Middle-tier Markets 120 Corporate Banking Sector and Customers 124 Government and the Public Sector 128 Questions for Discussion and Review 128 ns

4 Contents ix 7. SME Credit Risk, Analysis, and Control in Emerging Economies 129 Learning Focus and Outcomes 130 Defining Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises 131 Motivations of SME Entrepreneurs 132 Significance of SM Es for Emerging Market Economies 134 SME Attributes, Business Practices, and Credit Risks 136 SME External Financing Needs 138 Appraising an SME Project for Bank Lending 139 Abridged Feasibility Study of SME Business Venture 139 Constructing and Analyzing Financials for an SME Feasibility Study 152 Securing SME Credit Facilities 161 Questions for Discussion and Review 163 Reference 164 Further Reading Sectoral and Industry Credit Risk and Control in Emerging Economies 165 Learning Focus and Outcomes 166 Trading and Commercial Services 166 Agricultural Production and Risk Control 170 Manufacturing Industry Credit Risk and Control 175 Energy (Oil and Gas) Sector Credit Risk and Control 178 Telecommunications Sector Credit Risk and Control 182 Social Projects Credit Risk and Control 183 Questions for Discussion and Review 185 References 185 Short-term Lending and Recurrent C red its 9. Advance, Overdraft, and Current Line Risks and Control 189 Learning Focus and Outcomes 189 Contrasts and Similarities 190 Direct Advance 193 Overdraft Facility 194 Business (Asset Conversion) Risk 198 Questions for Discussion and Review Margin Lending, Credit Risk, and Stock Markets in Emerging Economies 203 Learning Focus and Outcomes 203 The Stock Market: Going from Boom to Bust 206

5 x Contents Regulatory Intervention to Stern the Tide of a Hammer Blow 208 Defining Margin Lending 210 Benefits of a Margin Loan to the Borrower 211 Margin Lending Risks, Analysis, and Control 213 Questions for Discussion and Review 21 7 Reference Asset-Based Transactions, Lending and Credit Risk Control 219 Learning Focus and Outcomes 219 Overview of Asset-based Lending 220 Receivables Discounting Facility 225 Inventory Refinancing Facility 226 Purchase Order Finance 229 Risks of Purchase Order Finance 229 Questions for Discussion and Review International Trade Financing, Payments and Credit Risk Control 233 Learning Focus and Outcomes 233 Overview of Trade Finance 238 Nondocumentary Payment 239 Documentary (Letter of Credit) Payment 240 Risks of Lending and Mitigation 247 Questions for Discussion and Review 250 Reference 250 Medium and Long-term Lending 13. Term Loan Structuring and Risk Control in Emerging Economies 253 Learning Focus and Outcomes 253 Lending versus Deposit Structure 254 Causes of Long-term Borrowing 255 Risk Analysis and Mitigation 256 Questions for Discussion and Review Mortgage Risks, Control, and Property Market in Emerging Economies 261 Learning Focus and Outcomes 261 Openings and Boom to Bust in Mortgage Lending 262 Assessing Borrowing Causes 267 Characterizing Mortgages 268 Risk Analysis and Mitigation 270

6 Contents xi Other Credit Issues 272 Questions for Discussion and Review 272 Further Reading Lease Financing Risk and Control in Emerging Markets 275 Learning Focus and Outcomes 275 Meaning of Leasing and a Lease 279 Forms and Features of Leases 279 Finance Lease 279 Operating Lease 280 Other Lease Derivatives 280 Elements of a Lease Transaction 282 Risk Analysis and Mitigation 283 Optimizing Lease Portfolio 285 Questions for Discussion and Review 285 Hybrid and Irregulär Credit Facilities 16. Off-balance Sheet Bank Lending, Exposure and Risk Control 289 Learning Focus and Outcomes 289 Off-balance Sheet Credits and Risk Exposure 290 Bank Guarantee 293 Banker's Acceptance 298 Commercial Paper 300 Contract Finance, Risks, and Analysis 302 Questions for Discussion and Review 304 Reference 304 Further Reading Consumer and Credit Card Lending in Emerging Economies 305 Learning Focus and Outcomes 306 Overview of Consumer Loans 307 Credit Card Risks, Analysis and Control 307 Defining Credit Card Risk 308 Incidence of Default 312 Default Dynamics 313 Mitigating Credit Card Risk 314 Control of Credit Risk 317 Institutionalizing the Credit Card Process 318 Global Challenges for Banks in Emerging Economies 319 Lessons for Banks in Emerging Economies 323 Implications for Banks in Emerging Economies 324 Questions for Discussion and Review 325

7 xii Contents 18. Micro Sector Credit Risk Control in Emerging Economies Learning Focus and Outcomes Scope of, and Need for, Microfinance Credits Cultural Background Risk Identification and Analysis Mitigation of Risks of Microfinance Lending Other Risk Control Measures Questions for Discussion and Review Loan Syndication Risk and Control in Emerging Economies 341 Learning Focus and Outcomes 341 Causes of Syndication Lending 342 Meaning and Benefits of Syndication 343 Parties and Roles in Syndication 344 Categories of Syndication Deals 344 Legal and Other Documentation 346 Commitment, Fees, and Servicing 346 Risk Analysis and Mitigation 348 Questions for Discussion and Review 351 Part III Credit Risk Dynamics, Analysis, and Management Approach to Credit Risk Management 20. Evolving Control of Bank Lending and Credit Risk in Emerging Markets 357 Learning Focus and Outcomes 357 Overview 358 Naive Lending Era 359 Awakening Stage 360 Regulatory Intervention 361 Financial Meltdown and Bailout 363 Reawakening Stage 365 Questions for Discussion and Review Emerging Markets and Debate on Framework for Credit Risk Control 367 Learning Focus and Outcomes 367 Credit Risk Framework Debate 368 Qualitative Principles versus Mathematical Models 369 Revisiting the Qualitative Approach 370

8 Contents xiii Questions for Discussion and Review 374 References Fine-tuning Principles of Bank Lending for Emerging Markets 377 Learning Focus and Outcomes 377 Tinkering with Qualitative Principles 378 Bulwark Against Credit Risk 379 Criteria of Contemporary Bank Lending 379 Cardinal Principles of Bank Lending 381 The Fine-tuning Required 387 Questions for Discussion and Review 388 Analytical Framework for Credit Risk Control 23. Cash Flow Analysis and Lending to Corporate Borrowers 393 Learning Focus and Outcomes 393 Concept and Value of Cash Flow 394 Identifying Cash Flow Sources 395 Obtaining Cash Flow Information 396 Unique Attributes of Cash Flow 397 Elements of Cash Flow Analysis 398 Cash Flow Analysis Formulae 404 Cash Flow Debt Service Ratios 405 lllustrations and Analysis of Nigerian Breweries PLC 406 Questions for Discussion and Review Analyzing and Interpreting Financial Statement for Corporate Lending 419 Learning Focus and Outcomes 419 Assessing Business, Financial, and Performance Risks 420 Spread Sheet 421 Liquidity of the Borrower 429 Borrower's Leverage 437 Assets Utilization 439 Operating Efficiency 441 Cash Flow Position 441 Questions for Discussion and Review Bank Credit Structuring, Analysis and Approval in Emerging Markets 443 Learning Focus and Outcomes 443 Marketing and Relationship Issues 444

9 xiv Contents Factors Affecting Loan Structure 445 Elements of Loan Structure 450 Questions for Discussion and Review Emerging Market Issues in Structuring Bank Credit Facilities 459 Learning Focus and Outcomes 459 Bank's Commitment to Lend 460 Conditions Precedent 461 Representations and Warranties 462 Covenants of the Borrower 463 Events of Default 467 Qualities of Cood and Well-structured Credit 468 Questions for Discussion and Review Credit Analysis Memorandum Fitted for Banks in Emerging Markets 471 Learning Focus and Outcomes 472 Aptitude of the Analyst 472 Meaning and Importance of a CAM 473 Elements of a CAM 474 Introduction: The Starting Point 475 Summary of Loan Terms 475 Borrower's Background 478 Ownership, Business, and Management 478 Proposed Credit 479 Transaction Dynamics 479 Market and Industry Analysis 481 Financial Analysis 483 Risk Analysis and Mitigation 485 Collateral Evaluation 488 Lending Rationale 490 Profitability Analysis 491 Ways-Out Analysis 492 Other Considerations 492 Recommendation 498 Questions for Discussion and Review 499 Loan Documentation, Review and Compliance 28. Authorization and Responsibility for Bank Credit in Emerging Markets 503 Learning Focus and Outcomes 503 Credit Strategy Committee 504 Credit Approval Form 505

10 Contents xv Credit Approval Issues and Options 509 Questions for Discussion and Review Security and Documentation of Credits in Emerging Economies 513 Learning Focus and Outcomes 514 Basis and Benefits of Security 515 Classifications of Security 516 Types of Security 518 Other Forms of Security 527 Problems of Security 532 Questions for Discussion and Review 533 References 533 Further Reading Administering Credit and Portfolio Risk in Emerging Markets 535 Learning Focus and Outcomes 535 Overview of credit admin 536 Need for Credit Administration 537 Bulwark Against Inefficient Lending 538 Rendition of Credit Returns 544 Credit and Market Reports 545 Administrative Framework 546 Contemporary Challenges 547 Making Credit Admin Work 552 Questions for Discussion and Review 552 Reference 553 Managing Non-Performing Credit Facilities 31. Incidence and Crisis of Delinquent Loans in Emerging Markets 557 Learning Focus and Outcomes 557 Meaning of "Bad Debt" in Banking 558 Summary of General Observation 559 Critical Causes of Loan Default 560 Questions for Discussion and Review Demystifying Loan Default Warning Signs in Emerging Markets 569 Learning Focus and Outcomes 569 Unusual Customer Actions 570 Changing Loan Attributes 572

11 xvi Contents Third-Party Inquiries 572 Other Views on Loan Default 573 Implications for Bank Management 574 Effect on Market Competition 575 Banking Relationship Concerns 576 Questions for Discussion and Review Loan Workout and Remedial Actions for Banks in Emerging Markets 579 Learning Focus and Outcomes 579 Watch List Committee 580 Loan Remediation Actions 581 Primary Actions 581 Secondary Actions 583 Questions for Discussion and Review Proofed Strategies for Recovery of Bad Loans of Banks in Emerging Markets 589 Learning Focus and Outcomes 589 Stakes in Loan Recovery 590 Approaches, Options, and Strategies 591 Questions for Discussion and Review Obstacles to Recovery of Bad Loans in Emerging Economies 599 Learning Focus and Outcomes 599 Statement of the Problem 600 Large-Loan Exposures 601 Unsecured Lending 602 Compromising Loan Officers 603 Influential Borrowers 604 Flawed Legal System 608 Collusion with Bank Employees 610 Questions for Discussion and Review 611 Part IV Asset Portfolio Quality, Risk and Control Basel Accords and Credit Portfolio Issues in Emerging Economies 36. Applications of Basel Accords in Emerging Economies 617 Learning Focus and Outcomes 61 7 Toward Basel 1 and Basel II Accords 618

12 Contents xvii Making of Basel Accords 619 The Basel Committee 620 Basel I Accord 621 Basel II Accord 626 Questions for Discussion and Review 634 References 634 Further Reading Bank Credit and Capital Regulation and Supervision in Emerging Economies 637 Learning Focus and Outcomes 638 Defining Issues in Banking Regulation in Emerging Economies 641 Autonomy for Banking Regulatory Authorities 642 Albatross for Banking Supervision 643 Revisiting the question of insider abuse 644 Basel Accords approach Capital charges for credit risk 646 Basel Capital Accord 647 Regulation of bank capital in emerging economies 655 Regulating Bank Liquidity Risk in Emerging Economies 657 Regulatory Response to Failing Banks in Emerging Economies 665 Questions for Discussion and Review 668 References Bank Credit Portfolio Structure, Quality, and Returns in Emerging Economies 671 Learning Focus and Outcomes 671 Elements and Composition of Assets Portfolio 672 Credit Concentration and Risk 680 Portfolio Distribution and Maturity Profiles 683 Questions for Discussion and Review 688 Index 691

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