PwCグローバルインフラセミナー 前 半 の 部 世 界 のインフラ PPP 市 場 の 現 状 と 展 望 概 要 版

Transcription

1 グローバルインフラセミナー 前 半 の 部 世 界 のインフラ PPP 市 場 の 現 状 と 展 望 概 要 版 Japan

2 Contents Overview of Asian Infrastructure Market Asian Infrastructure Market by Country China India Indonesia Australia Malaysia/Thailand/Philippines/Vietnam Singapore South Korea Contacts 2

3 Overview of Asian Infrastructure Market 2005 年 から2030 年 までの 世 界 のインフラ 投 資 額 ( 総 額 41 兆 ドル)を 地 域 別 に 見 ると アジア/オセアニアが 全 体 の 約 4 割 (15.8 兆 ドル)と 大 きな 割 合 を 占 めていることが 分 かる ADB(アジア 開 発 銀 行 ) 試 算 によると 2010 年 から2020 年 までのアジアにおけるインフラニーズ( 総 額 8.2 兆 ドル)は 中 国 と インドだけで 全 体 の 約 8 割 を 占 めている また 中 国 やインドと 比 べると 規 模 は 小 さいが 東 南 アジア 諸 国 (インドネシア マ レーシア タイ フィリピン ベトナム)においても 一 定 のニーズがあることが 分 かる Projected Cumulative Infrastructure Spending $ trillion $ trillion (39%) (53%) 16 Total 4.5 $41 trillion (22%) 7.4 (18%) 6.5 (16%) 1.1 (3%) 0.9 (2%) National Infrastructure Investment Needs in Asia (27%) 0.45 (5%) 0.19 (2%) 0.18 (2%) 0.17 (2%) 0.14 (2%) Total $8.2 trillion 0.13 (2%) 0.11 (1%) 0.31 (4%) Source: Booz Allen Hamilton Source: Author, ADB/ADBI(2009), Centennial(2009)

4 China 4

5 Market Opportunities Sector Investment in railways is not easy. Freight railways, in particular coal transportation may be good for private investment. Metro needs funding desperately. Most metro funding does come from the government but in form of yet to be developed land. How to convert this into cashflow is so critical to fund metro projects. Innovative approach with strong government support can create a good model. Some opportunities in toll roads, especially the trunk roads cross the country. One caution in investing in toll roads is that public scrutiny on legitimacy and level of tolls has become more frequent and there is a signal that the government will at least reduce tolls in the future. Sewage treatment presents a good opportunity. The most difficult part is the waste water collection system. The right investment structure is key to success of such projects. Billion RMB Total Investment in Fixed Assets by Sector Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

6 Market Overview Railway In 2011, Total Investment of Fixed Assets for Railway is RMB billion Yuan, total length of transport routes in operation is 93,000 km and density of railways coverage is about 9.71km per thousand square kilometers. The 12 th five-year plan for Railways made by Ministry of Railways indicates that by end of 2015, the total length of railways will reach 120,000 km of which 50,000 km will be in Western China. High speed railway in operation will reach 40,000 km. Billion RMB Total Investment in Fixed Assets for Railway Vehicle Purchase Transformation and Renovation Capital Construction Source: Statistics Bulletin of Railway

7 Market Overview Metro At the end of 2010, there are 29 city metro* plans that have been approved by the State Council, another 4 cities have drafted the city metro plan. More cities are following. Based on estimated construction cost of RMB million per kilometer, investment in metro will be about RMB800-1,000 billion from *Three forms of rails in metro system, subway, light rails and suburban trains. km 400 Total length of newly rail transportation Source:2011City Rail Transportation Risk Analysis Report

8 Market Overview Road In 2011, total Investment in Road is RMB 1, billion, of which billion is for expressways. By the end of 2011, total length of roads reaches 4.12 million km, of which 63,600 km is the national expressways. The density of the road network is 42.77km per hundred square kilometer. There are 14 provinces with a total length of expressways is more than 3,000km each. The 12th Five-Year Development Plan for Transportation Industry specifies six major development directions for improving the road network: improving the road network planning, accelerating the formation of the expressway network, strengthening the update of national and provincial roads, continuing to promote construction of the rural roads, accelerating the construction of transportation station, strengthening the construction of ports roads Total Investment in Fixed Assets for Road and total length Million km Billion RMB Total Investment Total length Source: Statistics Bulletin of Transportation

9 Market Overview Sewage Water At the end of Q3 2011, China has established 3,078 sewage water treatment plants with a total capacity of 136 million cubic meter per day. The actual amount of sewage waters being treated is about 110 million cubic meter per day. During the 12th Five-Year Plan, estimated investment in sewage treatment and water recycling is about RMB430 billion. One of key focus of such investment is improvement in distribution network. Investment plan on sewage water (RMB in Billions) 35, 8% 30, 7% 14, 3% Improve and establish pipe network New sewage treament capacity 104, 25% 244, 57% city sewage treament plants upgrade Sluge disposal facility Recycled water facility Source: 12th Five-Year Plan for national city sewage disposal and recycled water facility construction

10 India 10

11 Market Overview India lags the developed world on several public indicators. The prime reason for this, is the historic underinvestment in infrastructure, which has become the prime area for economic focus. Over the next 5 years, the government has set an ambitious target of >USD 1 trillion for infrastructure. However, the poor state of government finances imply that the government would not able to meet much of this target on its own. As per government s estimate, there will be a total shortfall of $313 billion in the 12th plan. To achieve the stiff growth targets and fill a large funding gap, private sector funding would need to increase. This could provide an entry opportunity for Japanese firms by leveraging low debt options like JICA. Infrastructure Investments (USD Bn) Infrastructure investment for 12th Plan Source: Planning Commission % of GDP Total infrastructure investment from 2012 to 2017 There will be a large funding gap in the next 5 years 678 Investment Required Projected availability Non GBS 313 Gap Gross Budgetary Support Source: Planning Commission, PWC analysis

12 Market Participants Japan Following active involvement of the Japanese government in Indian infrastructure, Japanese firms have also begun to make their mark. JBIC partnering with Indian government in developing Delhi-Mumbai and Chennai Bangalore Industrial Corridors Hitachi and New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization will invest in solar power generation on a trial basis, for supply to industrial parks Hitachi is also teaming up with Itochu Corp and the city government of Kitakyushu, for a seawater desalination and building industrial water supply network Mitsubishi Corp, another trading company, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd., plan to develop a gas-fired power generation project in areas where electricity supply is tight Marubeni Corporation has floated a Joint Venture with Apollo Hospitals Group called PPN Power Generation Company, that will invest in merchant power generation Toshiba Corporation is assisting the Pune Municipal Corporation with a survey and feasibility study for a mass transport system

13 Market Overview Sector Differential levels of investment potential and actual investments are seen in various infrastructure sectors. Maturity-PPP projects awarded USD billion* Ports: Relatively well understood, but need for 30 institutional clarity Ports Airports Water Solid Waste Roads Power Urban Transport Roads: Sector that has displayed and delivered the maximum potential Power: Large potential for private investment but key risks emerging Industrial Corridors: Promising opportunity for the future Urban Roads Industrial Corridors Railways Investment potential-usd Billion (Till about 2020) Metro: Promising opportunity for the future Railways: Nascent PPP options generating positive investor interest

14 Market Overview Industrial corridor Industrial corridor development is seeing traction in India, with 2 large projects having been initiated. Dedicated Freight Corridor Expected Investment USD 90 Billion* Ahmadabad Mumbai Ludhiana Delhi Dadri Dankuni Two high axle weight rail corridors for connecting hinterland with east & west coast Large industrial zones / estates planned in a 150 km belt along the corridor Greenfield industrial cities planned in the states of Rajasthan and Gujarat with an aim to develop high quality industrial infrastructure Chennai Bangalore Industrial Corridor Expected Investment USD 20 Billion** Chennai Bangalore Freight Corridor Bangalore Chennai Two phase development to connect Chennai with Bangalore Phase 1 Chennai Sriperumbudur Phase 2 Ranipet Hosur - Bangalore Future plans include provision of extending the corridor to Munbai to create Chennai Bangalore Mumbai Industrial Corridor * Source: Public News Sources

15 Market Overview Power Much needed investments across all segments of the value chain Sector Opportunities Investments by sub-sector in 12th Plan (USD Billion) Generation: Key Issues High execution risk Plagued by operational and fuel sourcing issues Financing risk plagued by deteriorating project economics Generation: 44 Generation Transmission Distribution most attractive opportunity for Private sector Current generation capacity: 185 GW 12 th Plan Addition Target: 76 GW (>40% of current capacity) 13 th Plan Addition Target: 93 GW (~50% of current capacity) Transmission: Still not amenable for PPP Distribution: Successful PPP examples exist, but further private sector participation uncertain

16 Market Overview Railway With a view to modernize the Indian railways, the government is planning to significantly increase its outlay in XII five year plan. Japanese companies are utilizing JICA sponsored preparatory surveys to participate in the railway sector, such as urban railway project in Pune City (Oriental Consultants and Toshiba Corp) Sector Opportunities Investment in Railways (USD bn) Key Issues Large PPP investments would come in form of dedicated freight corridor development and setting up of large factories/manufacturing units Given the historical and political background there may be significant delays in many projects However it has been observed that projects with smaller allocation are executed first 10th Five year plan 11th Five year plan 12th Five year plan Steep Increase in planned outlay Modernization of Indian railways is being proposed at an investment of USD 164 billion by a panel headed by Sam Pitodra Thus contracting and O&M opportunities in focus sectors like safety and Signaling can potentially be attractive options Almost USD 112 bn of this modernization budget would need to be spent in the 12th five year plan and rest in 13th five year plan

17 Market Overview Metro (1/2) With public infrastructure a major priority, investments of over USD 50 billion are planned for developing MRTS(Mass Rapid Transit System) in next few years. The Indian government s policy to invest in MRTS in all cities with population greater than 2 million would lead to a number of projects in next 5-7 years Operational Under Construction Tendering Proposed Delhi Metro Chennai Metro Chennai Metro Chennai Metro Kolkata Metro Jaipur Metro Jaipur Metro Jaipur Metro Banagalore Metro Hyderabad Metro Hyderabad Metro Hyderabad Metro Mumbai Metro Mumbai Metro Mumbai Metro Opportunity size of over USD 50 billion

18 Market Overview Metro (2/2) These MRTS projects would include both PPP and non PPP initiatives Complete PPP Mumbai Metro 1, 2 Globally, a shift towards Government retaining demand risk with itself has been observed, thus it is likely that other upcoming PPP projects my go the route of : Extent of PPP Part PPP Jaipur Hyderabad Ahmedabad Metro Performance Risk Traffic Risk Delhi Airport Link + + Risk shared by Pvt. Availability payments (linked to KPI s) Minimum revenue guarantee Demand risk transfer to private in later years Real estate Risk Extent of risk sharing No PPP Risk shared by Govt. Delhi Metro Bangalore Metro Phase 1 Kolkata metro Mumbai Metro Line 3 Bangalore Metro Phase II Chennai metro Proposed / under implementation

19 Market Overview Road One of the most mature sectors for private participation Under intense competition in recent bids by several EPC contractors, private investment may not fetch expected returns in smaller scale projects Sector Opportunities USD 146 billion expected between 2012 and 2017 Over USD 58 billion of state highway projects Over kms of road projects (2-laning) yet to be awarded Over 1000 kms of Expressways and 10 Mega Highway projects under NHAI Highly mature sector Smaller parcel sizes Key Issues Land acquisition and clearances Low barriers of entry High degree of competition affecting project economics

20 Market Overview Port Strategic opportunities for long-term investors Sector Opportunities Rapid growth of containerization and bulk traffic USD 61 billion of investment expected by 2020 USD 2.8 billion worth of projects currently under bidding Key Issues Over 7500 km coastline -13 major ports and 176 non-major ports Regressive and non-uniform tariff regulation Market risks exposure for Greenfield ports Revenue share for BOT projects challenge project economics Financing challenges Delay in land acquisition and connectivity projects Major Ports

21 Indonesia 21

22 Market Overview (1/2) As an archipelagic country, connectivity between regions is critical issues in creating sustained and further growth. The development of infrastructure needs to support the movement of goods and services from one island to another. It includes development of road & bridge, airport and seaport, electricity network and other utilities. The infrastructure financing needs up to 2014, amounts to US$ billion, whilst the government s capability only sums up to US$ billion. Another source of financing is coming from State Owned Enterprise ( SOE ), Private and regional government funding through APBD that is estimated to be approximately US$ billion. In order to achieve a minimum of 7% economic growth target at the end of 2014, an additional financing gap of US$ billion is required. Thus, the government and private s involvement in this matter should be further enhanced. Gap between financing capacity and requirement (US$ billion) Gap Regional Government Budget ( APBD ) Central Government Budget ( APBN ) Private/ SOE Source: Bappenas 2011 Note: 1 US$ = Rp 9,200 Estimated financing capacity Total investment requirement

23 Market Overview (2/2) Key Success Factors Local Knowledge: Local knowledge is essential to investors as there are complex matters ranging from general culture of business practice and regulation to taxation and accounting issues. All of those items need to be understood by investors so that risks could be minimised. Access to Networking: Access to relevant government official is crucial to obtain clear information on the projects and provisions, providing vital information to what the profile of the project is. Many projects are available, however getting the right project is very crucial for the investors. Key Challenges Regulations: The regulations regarding infrastructure in Indonesia is quite complex ranging from regulations about legal entity of a company, taxations, and industry specific regulations. Competitions: Investors will compete on getting the access to good projects in Indonesia. Local knowledge and good network is the key. Government Initiatives The Public Private Partnership ( PPP ) Law: The PPP law has been issued to provide clear framework for private participants in the infrastructure space. Key provisions include clearer and more transparent procurement process and Government guarantee and support. New land acquisition law : Recently, the House of Representative together with the Government passed new bill that is expected to improve the time required for land acquisition needed for infrastructure development. Government guarantee fund: The Indonesia Infrastructure Guarantee Fund ( IIGF ) was established to help improving the risk profile of infrastructure projects in Indonesia. The guarantee has been awarded to Central Java Power Plant ( CJPP ), opening possibilities for another project being awarded with similar guarantees. Other form of Government guarantee is for special program from the Government such as the Fast Track Programme ( FTP ) II. The Viability Gap Funding ( VGF ): The Government is in process to issue a regulation to support the development of infrastructure by providing support in form of VGF in enhancing projects to become viable. 23

24 Market Opportunities (1/2) The Bappenas Public-Private Partnerships Infrastructure Projects in Indonesia 2011 report shows 83 projects valued at around USD 53.4 billion available under the PPP program for Planned infrastructure projects by island Planned infrastructure projects by sector Kalimantan 12 projects (US$ 3.6 billion) Sulawesi 5 projects (US$ 1.4 billion) No Sector Quantity Project cost 1 Transportation 16 US$ 6.5 billion 2 Railways 3 US$ 4.4 billion 3 Toll road 22 US$ 35.7 billion Sumatera 17 projects (US$ 9.1 billion) Java 41 projects (US$ 38.5 billion) Bali and Nusa Tenggara 8 projects (US$ 0.8 billion) 4 Water supply 24 US$ 1.7 billion 5 Solid Waste and Sanitation 12 US$ 300 million 6 Power 6 US$ 4,8 million Total 83 US$ 53.4billion Source: Public-Private Partnerships Infrastructure Projects in Indonesia 2011, Bappenas 24

25 Market Opportunities (2/2) Some notable infrastructure projects Project Name Total Amount Description Project Status Notable projects Central Java Power Plant Project US$ 3.5 billion First PPP project in the electricity sector Winning bidder has been selected Paiton Power Plant expansion project US$1.2 billion Paiton Energy s expansion of 815 MW COD on March 2012 Tanjung Jati Power Plant expansion project 160 billion 2x660 MW expansion of Tanjung Jati B power plant COD on February 2012 In the process of tender/soon to be tendered Railway system from commuter line to Airport US$ 250 million Development of new railway from Manggarai train station to Soekarno-Hatta International Airport Feasibility Study stage South Sumatera Mine Mouth Power project US$ 2.2 billion Development of South Sumatera Mine- Mouth Power Project unit 9 and 10 Feasibility Study stage Way Rilau Bulk Water Supply US$ 100 million Development of South Sumatra water supply for Bandar Lampung In the tender process Source: various sources 25

26 Market Participants Indonesia, Japan and Others Japanese Entities Other participants Project Financiers, amongst others: Japan International Cooperation Agency ( JICA ) Japan Bank for International Cooperation ( JBIC ) Mizuho financial group Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Project Sponsors, amongst others: Itochu Co., Ltd. Marubeni Corporation Mitsui Co., Ltd. Kansai Electric Co., Ltd. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Toshiba Co., Ltd. France Alstom (Power and Transportation) GDF Suez (Power and Water) Germany E.On (Power) USA General Electric (Power) Chevron (Power and Oil&Gas) Korea Samsung (Power) Hyundai (Power) China China Railway Group (Railway) Malaysia Plus Expressway (Toll road) National/Regional Entities (Possible Partners) Infrastructure Holding Companies, amongst others: Astratel Nusantara Nusantara Infrastructure Bosowa group Pembangunan Jaya Indika group Saratoga Capital (PE) Adaro State Owned Enterprises, amongst others: Jasa Marga Perusahaan Listrik Negara Geo Dipa Energi Pertamina Geothermal Energi PTBA Wijaya Karya Adhi Karya Project Financiers, amongst others: YY Indonesia Infrastructure Finance Sarana Multi Infrastruktur Bank Mandiri Bank BNI 26

27 Success Stories Central Java Power Plant (in construction phase) The CJPP is a project to increase installed capacity in the Java electrical grid by developing a 2 x 1,000 MW power plant in Central Java. The project cost was estimated exceeding US$ 3.3 billion. This large-scale PPP embodies the following key features: The first PPP model The first PPP model for power plant development in Indonesia with Build, Own, Operate, and Transfer ( BOOT ) scheme Guaranteed by the Government of Indonesia Guaranteed by the Government of Indonesia and Indonesian Infrastructure Guarantee Fund ( IIGF ) Open and transparent process Tendered with international standards Way Rilau Bulk Water Supply (the tender is on-going) Way Rilau Bulk Water Supply is part of the effort to improve the water supply situation in Bandar Lampung in Southern part of Sumatra. Through PPP framework, investors are invited to participate in developing an intake facility and water treatment facility for 41 mega - liter per day bulk water supply. The project cost was estimated around US$ 100 million. The following key features: The first PPP model in Water Project The first PPP model in Water for bulk water supply development in Indonesia with Build, Own, Operate, and Transfer ( BOOT ) scheme Guaranteed by the Government of Indonesia Supported by the Government of Indonesia through Indonesian Infrastructure Guarantee Fund ( IIGF ) and planned to receive the Viability Gap Funding ( VGF ) from the Ministry of Finance. Open and transparent process Tendered with international standards 27

28 Australia 28

29 Market Overview Nature of Market Considerable backlog of infrastructure spend estimated at $770 bn up to 2018 (around 50% of this is Government owned infrastructure) Need driven by sustained population growth, distance between major cities, reliance on imports and exports, mining activity and a spate of natural disasters Well established track record of using project finance to fund infrastructure Relatively transparent and stable regulatory regime Infrastructure Australia was created in 2008 to develop a more consistent approach to infrastructure investment across the states and territories Most active Government sponsored sector has been transport Early road PPPs suffered from overly optimistic traffic forecasts - new models required as a result Health has seen a number of $1bn+ hospital redevelopments in recent years Super funds continue to play a very limited role in greenfield assets Private sector infrastructure is mainly around mining, energy, gas & oil and the related road, rail and port transportation thereof Carbon tax comes into effect from June 2012 top 500 polluters exposed Very good deals especially in mining/resources no issues Large Government infrastructure deals being super analysed taking longer to come to market Equity very eager but debt still has short term approach Government privatisation increasing Key Challenges Extensive bid costs Time taken to award contracts Depth and accuracy of national pipeline [new website: Perceived barriers to entry for overseas bidders Developing alternative Government funding models Sheer size of financing needs and affordability issues Long term needs but short term market approach

30 Financial Market Trends Seen the demise of European and UK lenders, as significant financiers of the Australian infrastructure This gap is being filled to a limited extent by stronger appetite coming from the three Japanese mega banks (BTMU, SMBC + Mizuho) and lately, the renewed push into the sector by the Canadian banks (RBC, ICBC) Figure 1: Figure 2:

31 Market Opportunities (1/2)

32 Market Opportunities (2/2) Rail North West Rail Link Road Melbourne East West Connection The North West Rail Link is the NSW Government s priority transport infrastructure project. 18 km connection of Freeway to Freeway Planning is well underway on the 23km rail link to Sydney s growing North West region. Significant tunneling The rail link includes 15 km of tunnels, the longest and deepest rail tunnels ever built in Australia. Staging being reviewed The new rail link is planned to have: Eight new railway stations;; 4,000 commuter car parking spaces; A train stabling facility Melbourne Metro Melbourne Metro is a critical city-shaping project The project requires the construction of a nine kilometre rail tunnel through the heart of Melbourne The project will include five new underground stations Total cost > $6 billion IA has classified this in its top priority category Capital cost > $14 billion (total road) Inner city urban development opportunities New concession / procurement options being considered EOI to market expected late 2013 Port Melbourne Expansion (Australia s largest port) 3rd Container Terminal at Port of Melbourne (EOI mid 2012) > $1.3b Review of location for new port (Hastings) Sydney Full privatisation (land lord model) mid 2013 Port Kembla (bulk port) privatisation review Perth Review of bulk ports for privatisation Power Water Projects mining related: 50 gl desal at Port Hedland 20 gl desal at Olympic Dam (plus 320 km pipeline) 25 gl desal in Pilbara region (WA) NSW Electricity Privatisation The NSW Government recently passed legislation to authorise the privatisation of the State s remaining power generation assets. The assets for sale are the state-owned electricity generators Brokers have estimated the generators are worth between $3.3bn and $6.5bn.

33 Malaysia/Thailand/Philippines/Vietnam 33

34 Market Overview Malaysia Thailand General election fever must be called by June 2013 Economic Transformation Programme key driver to attain developed country status by year aim to attract US$444bn investment focus on key sectors, eg infrastructure 92% of the investment will come from the private sector PPP unit Malaysia s Public Private Partnership Unit (3PU) under PM s Department Devastating floods in US$13bn infrastructure development programme for Thailand's northern region Political uncertainty new government, led by Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra PPP taskforce - no central PPP agency - Ministry of Finance drafting a new PPP Law Philippines Current BOT Law falls short of best practice compared to international PPP norms In 2011, Government identified 10 priority PPP projects In Nov 2011, the Government agreed with the Korean Government to obtain up to US$500 million in EDCF loans to support large-scale infrastructure development In Jan 2012, the Government announced the release of PESO billion (US$3.2 billion) for infrastructure projects for 2012 Key issues: limitation on available viability gap funding; specific reliance on ODA loans Vietnam Strong need for infrastructure 60 projects ( ) US$12bn Government unable to fund all projects continue to rely on ODA State-owned companies dominate the infrastructure market (eg EVN in electricity) but unable to undertake more projects Opportunities for foreign companies but absence of regulatory, legal and capital markets inhibit ability to undertake PPP projects PPP taskforce - Ministry of Planning and Investment Japan has 14% of infrastructure projects(transport, energy and water) in Vietnam

35 Market Opportunities Malaysia Transport Energy Oil and Gas My Rapid Transit MRT (141km 3 lines) US$16bn 5 hydropower projects in Sarawak (20GW by 2030) US$7bn Kuala Lumpur Singapore High Speed Rail (400km) US$6bn feasibility stage Energy Commission of Malaysia to procure 4,500MW (8 IPPs) new generation capacity by US$3bn - first large-scale competitive bidding including Japanese and Korean players Refinery and Petrochemical Integrated Development (RAPID) US$20bn 7 expressways US$6bn - West Coast Expressway (316km) US$2.3b approved Rejuvenating existing fields through enhanced oil recovery US$3bn Water Uncertainty due to restructuring of the Malaysia water industry Pahang Selangor interstate raw water transfer project (includes 44.6km tunnel and Kelau Dam) US$3bn Shimizu Corp and Nishimatsu Construction contractors Perak - Selangor groundwater project Solar power generation of 65MW by 2015 Khazanah/ UEM Tenaga Petronas Puncak Niaga IJM MMC/ Malakoff Sapura Kencana Salcon Gamuda Powertek WCT YTL Source: Business Monitor International Infrastructure Q Reports 35

36 Market Opportunities Thailand Transport Domestic high speed railway network (1,447km) US$13bn Suvarnabhumi Airport Expansion (103million passengers by 2024) US$5bn Energy Water 5,400MW IPP capacity - PDP Plan 2010 Revision 3 Infrastructure development programme (flood prevention programme) US$12.6bn 9 gas-fired power plant (4GW) US$6bn by Gulf JP Renewables hampered by cost competitiveness 1,200 license holders (>700MW) Enhancement of water production and distribution program (1,100km) US$150mil CH Karnchang EGAT n/a Italian-Thai Development PLC Ratchaburi Electric Bangkok Rapid Mass Transit (180km) US$8bn Source: Business Monitor International Infrastructure Q Reports, Master Plan on Water Resource Management 36

37 Market Opportunities Philippines Railway Road Airport Port Water Others LRT1 CALA Puerto Upgrade of Metro Manila Aplaya de Santa extension* MRT 3 integration* LRT 1 O&M MRT/LRT Expansion Program Common Ticketing System* LRT-2 East extension Mindano railway system development Expressway* NAIA Expressway II* North & South Luzon Expressway Connector C-6 Expressway and global link Calamba-Los Banos Toll Expressway Quirino Highway Cebu-North Coastal Road Princesa Airport upgrade* Lagindingan Airport * Bohol Airport upgrade* New Legaspi (Daraga) Airport* Mactan Cebu Terminal expansion Clark Airport Kalibo airport upgrade Balabac Airport major ports such as: Manila Batangas Iloilo Cagayan de Oro Zamboanga General Santos Davao dam and water treatment Balara Water Hub Bulacan Bulk Water Supply Project Balintingon Multi-purpose dam development Ambuklao Hydro Electrical Power Plant rehabilitation Macua MultiHydro Power Plant rehabilitation Rosa Waterfront Development Project Tinuy-an Falls Ecotourism Development, Bislig City Davao del Norte Integrated Water Resource Development Project Eco Tourism Light Industrial Park Development of Tarlac City EcoTourism * Top 10 priority PPP Projects identified

38 Market Opportunities Vietnam Railway Road Airport 7 urban metro railways in Ho Chi Minh City US$15bn US$60bn on roads by 2020 Regional ambition 8 urban railway in Hanoi (284km, six lines) up to 2030 Cavico Corporation Italian-Thai Development PLC Expansion of National Highway 1 (2,300km) on BOT US$6bn Dau Giay-Phan Thiet Expressway (100km) US$1.1bn PPP Pilot project with Bitexco as shareholder Vietnam Expressway Corporation Long Thanh International Airport, HCMC (100million passengers ) US$10bn Van Don International airport, Hanoi (6million passengers) US$1bn Royal International Corporation Energy Government to create 75GW of power by 2020 US$49bn Wind potential unrealised government to create 600MW of wind power by 2015 currently only 9MW utilised 1,200MW coal-fired Nghi Son 2 IPP awarded to Marubeni Corp and Kepco - first competitive IPP bidding since the Phu My power plant projects in the early 2000s EVN PetroVietnam Water Clean water projects in Ho Chi Minh City US$3bn 7 water supply projects in Ho Chi Minh City US$240mil Manila Water buys 49% of Kenh Dong Water Supply Joint Stock Co -200,000 m3/day to Sawaco Saigon Water Supply Corporation Hanoi Water Supply Source: Business Monitor International Infrastructure Q Reports 38

39 Singapore 39

40 Market Overview and Participants Market Overview - Overall PPP Market largely focused on water and transport Momentum from initial success in social infra deals (ITE College West and Sports Hub) has been lost due to lack of government policy Singapore aims to Export skillset in PPP and procurement regionally through IE Singapore and Singapore Cooperation Enterprise Singapore is a financial hub strong capital markets; large portfolio of private equity and infra funds; large MNC hub with a focus on developing markets; 2nd largest bunkering port globally Market Overview - Sector Port relocation of port is likely to occur and will be a substantial project Transport sector large scale MRT developments provide opportunity in IA and CPS (change to commercial structure for concessions) Water remains a key resource and Singapore is seen as a regional COE for water technologies Healthcare large scale hospital development projects are being contemplated Market Participants - Singapore Government Ministry of Finance, LTA(Land Transport Authority), PUB Government s key focus is exporting expertise and being a COE Singapore Cooperation Enterprise, IE Singapore, LTA/Changi Infrastructure funds and Banking sector SWF(Sovereign Wealth Fund) GIC, Temasek and Temasek linked companies Infra funds, including GIC(Government of Singapore Investment Corporation) offer enormous secondary market CP&I activity Banking sector is growing with additional focus on developing project finance and infrastructure expertise (PFE Entity for regional support) Industry Keppel, Sembcorp, Jurong Town Council, Hyflux, Sembawang, SMRT, Sing Spring, etc

41 SWOT Analysis Strengths Precedent PPP models (Sports Hub, ITE) Government has deep pockets and the commitment to deliver world class public infrastructure Established financial market (in particular, maturing Project Finance market ) Construction industry plays an important role in economic growth Stable political system; Least corrupt in Asia Absence of labour strikes and protests Weaknesses Country size constraint small market Tight labour supply Weak promotion of PPPs in Singapore Very limited pipeline Opportunities PPP allows for greater foreign participation Capacity building to allow for increase in population transportation, healthcare, education Opportunity to bring PPP models with Asian perspectives to neighbouring countries Singapore based clients looking to invest cross border Threats Current stagflation deters Government from spending more on infrastructure projects Entrenched state involvement in the private sector via Government Linked Companies (GLCs) Could be a perceived strength Strong competition from low wage economies eg China and India Strong competitors across the market, all with ability to price aggressively

42 Success Story Singapore Sport Hub PPP (1/3) Summary The 35 ha Sports Hub site is envisaged to be an integrated lifestyle hub for world-class sports and entertainment events, a commercially viable business model and a national and global landmark to achieve the goal of Singapore becoming a top 10 sporting nation in Asia by The Project was developed as a Design-Build-Finance-Operate (DBFO) PPP. Issues Timeline realism and impacts, Government project team resourcing in early days, Commodity price spike Global financial crisis Timeline November 2004 Project Kick Off May 2005 Marketing Open Day in London/NY/ Sydney/SG December 2005 Pre-Qualification document released to the market July 2006 Invitation to Tender released to 3 prequalified bidders May bidding consortia pre-qualified to ITT stage February bidders submitted proposals in response to ITT July 2007 Final Clarification Document released to 3 bidders 2008 October bidders submitted refined proposal in response to FCD January 2008 Preferred bidder appointed August 2010 Financial Close reached 42

43 Success Story Singapore Sport Hub PPP (2/3) Structure LENDERS SSC BTM UFJ BNP Paribas Credit Agricole DBS HSBC NAB Natixis OCBC SCB SMBC WestLB EPC Contract Unitary Payment SPV Agreement Venue Ops Contract FACILITIES MANAGER Dragages Singapore United PREMAS Ltd Pte Ltd Project Agreement Facility Facilities Management Contract Interface CONSTRUCTOR Agreement entered EQUITY PROVIDERS (Singapore Sport Council) Shareholder Agreement Dragages Singapore Ltd 10.5% HSBC Infrastructure Fund Management Ltd 82.7% United PREMAS Ltd 5% Global Spectrum Pte Ltd 1.8% Sports Procurement Contract VENUE OPS MANAGER SPORTS EVENT MANAGER RETAIL MANAGER CATERING MANAGER ICT Global Spectrum Pico Pte Ltd World Sports Group To be appointed To be appointed To be appointed ARCHITECT SPORTS SPECIALIST Arup/DP Architects ARM 43

44 Success Story Singapore Sport Hub PPP (3/3) Key Commercial Fundamentals Financing Package PPP Co takes Availability and performance risk Project costs during construction funded by: Equity incentivised to achieve objectives as returns based on availability payment + Third Party Revenue ( TPR ) Sources of Funds Equity Equity Bridge Loan Term Loan Total Financing Provided Events lie at the centre of the business model and TPR generation Event Programming Committee ( EPC ) enhanced the partnership approach Balance of commercial vs non commercially viable uses through: 1) different revenue sharing %; 2) PI/Availability requirements on the non commercial aspects; and 3) robust process set out in EPC. Equity IRR is capped with super profits being: 1) re-invested into the project; 2) passed back to government; and 3) then shared equally. This is one of the most complex PPPs in the world: Take over of existing building with known and latent defects; Very complex new build requirement; Large third party revenue component on top of availability payment; Very complex service offering; Different business sectors (retail, catering, commercial rights, etc); Very complex relationship among the service providers (see next slide) Very large capital requirements On top of the deal complexities, this procurement has experienced unusual construction price inflation and the worst global financial crisis in decades. % % 60% 40% 100% StandBy Finance Stand By Finance: Change in Law Facility Revolving Working Capital Facility Total Stand-By Debt Scenario Challenges % 0% 15% 85% 100% Nominal IRR Full availability and 0% TPR 7.0% Full availability and 65% TPR 15.0% Full availability and 100% TPR * 15.5% Key Points: Term Loan provided by 11 banks for a tenor of 10 years. Equity bridge loan provided by 4 banks during the construction period, supported by parent company guarantee and LC. Equity bridge loan more cost effective than using equity. At POD, equity bridge loan repaid by shareholder loans. 44

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46 民間投資事業における公共部門の役割 計画 法令及び制度 公共投資管理センターは事業 計画の検討及び評価 事業施 行者選定関連業務を遂行 公共投資管理センター (PIMAC)はﾊﾞﾘｭｰ ﾌｫｰ ﾏﾈｰ (VFM)及び事業妥当性検討 (F/S)を遂行 支援 企画財政部はPPP関連法令 基本計画な ど制度的整備及び投資審議を実施 企画財政部 承認 主務官庁は事業施行者と実 施協約を締結 主要主務官庁には国土海洋部 または地方自治体がある 実施協約 VFM及びF/S 韓国開発研究院 公共投資管理センター 主務官庁 PPP Project 公共部門 教育施設関連BTL事業の場 合 教育施設 環境研究セン ター(EDUMAC)が事業を支援 産業別支援 環境施設関連BTL事業の場 合 韓国環境公団(KECO)が 事業支援 EDUMAC KECO BTL事業 投資及び保証 財源調達 財政支援 補助金 MRG 建設期間中に主務官庁は総投資 額のうち一定部分の補助金支払及 び土地取得費を補償 主務官庁 運営期間中に主務官庁は最低運営 収入を保障(MRG) (ただし 現在 は廃止) 公的金融機関 国内事業の場合 韓国産業銀行 国民年金など 公的金融機関が財源調達に参加 国内事業の信用保証基金が保証を提供 海外事業の場合 韓国輸出入銀行 韓国貿易保 険公社などのECAが貸付及び保証を提供

47 民間投資事業のセクター別総額 2010年12月までに契約が締結された大規模民間投資事業 BTO BTL の総額は 約730億USD BTO方式では道路 BTL方式では学校が特に大きい割合を占めている 区分 道路 港湾 鉄道 環境 学校 下水管 軍人住宅 鉄道 その他 計 事業数 (%) 73 (38.4) 17 (8.9) 8 (4.2) 62 (32.6) 30 (15.8) 190件 (100) 総投資額 (%) 305 (57.6) 55 (10.5) 105 (19.7) 38 (7.2) 27 (5.1) 530億USD (100) 事業数 (%) 174 (46.4) 86 (22.9) 57 (15.2) 3 (0.8) 55 (14.7) 375件 (100) 総投資額 (%) 62 (30.6) 56 (27.9) 36 (18.0) 23 (11.3) 25 (12.2) 202億 USD (100) BTO BTL *最近1年間の平均為替レートを適用(約KRW 1,100/USD) Samil

48 民間投資事業における成功要因と今後の課題 成功要因 最近の傾向と今後の課題 最低運営収入保障制度の廃止にともなう需 要リスクの増大 需要予測の重要性の増大 建設補助金及び土地補償 (財源調達に係る負担の軽減) 事業敷地取得費用の補償 事業施行者に土地収用権 及び使用権を付与 総投資額の一部を補助金と して財政支援 保証及びファンド支援 (財源調達リスクの軽減) 信用保証基金から民間投 資事業金融機関の貸付及 び債権に対して保証 インフラ ファンド設立に対 する規制の緩和 インフラ ファンドの投資収 益に対する税制恩恵の提 供 MRG廃止 グリーン成長政策基調と連係して環境事業 及び鉄道事業の浮上 親環境技術及び再生可能エネルギー導入を 積極的に検討 グリーン成長 国内建築 土木景気不況にともなう国内 EPC業界の収益性低下 不況打開のための海外進出を積極的に検討 海外進出 グローバル金融危機にともなう国内プロ ジェクト ファイナンス(PF)市場の梗塞 海外インフラ事業が財源調達に関する困難 に直面 金融危機 最小運営収入保障 (需要リスクの軽減) 実際運営収入が実施協約 で定めた推定運営収入の 一定限度に達しない場合 一定部分を政府が補完 段階的に縮小され 2009年 に廃止された Samil 解約時支給金 (不可抗力リスクの軽減) 避けられない事由で建設ま たは運営中に契約が解約さ れる場合 政府が事業施行 者に支給する支払金をいう 事業中断の際に解約時支 給金を支給して最低限先順 位投資家を保護することが 可能 金融危機などにともなうリスク管理案の重 要性の増大 相対的にリスクが低い発電事業に対する関 心の増大 リスク管理 リファイナンスの成功事例の台頭及び必要 性の増大 新しい方式の民間投資事業(ex. BTO+BTL) に対する期待の増大 需要が検証された既存事業の改善補修 (Rehabilitation)に対する関心の増大 新しい類型 48

49 民間投資事業に対する今後の政策 知識共有プログラム Knowledge Sharing Program)の拡大 今後の政策 知識共有 開発途上国に韓国のインフラ開発事業ノウ ハウを伝授 プログラム (KSP)の拡大 公務員研修及び教育 韓国開発研究院(KDI)と企画財政部が 経済開発戦略/輸 出増進/人員教育プログラム(研修 教育など)を遂行してい る 最近では開発途上国を相手に 韓国の民間投資事業開発 ノウハウを伝授している 世界銀行(World Bank) アジア開発銀行(ADB)など 国際 機構と情報交流して共同協力プログラムを遂行している 公務員研修及び教育プログラムが活発に推進されており 参加国から良い反応を得ていて政府も継続的に拡大して いく計画 海外進出の拡大 海外進出の 拡大 海外インフラ開発事業への積極的な進出 グローバル金融危機に際する財源調達に 対する取り組み BTO+BTL混合方式の検討 新しい類型の Rehabilitation事業(改善補修事業)発掘及 び活性化 事業発掘 資金再調達活性化 全世界的なグリーン成長を受け 環境事業及び再生可能 エネルギー開発事業に重点を置く必要がある 需要リスクが相対的に低く 財源調達が容易な民間発電事 業(IPP)に対する進出を拡大すべき 相対的に需要リスクが低いという点を勘案し ある程度既存 の需要が確認されている改善補修事業(Rehabilitation)に 注目する必要がある ヨーロッパ金融危機を考慮し 輸出信用機関(ECA)及び国 際開発金融機関(MDB)を通じた財源調達の重要性が浮上 する見通し 海外事業のリスク分散のために国際コンソーシアムの形で 投資が行われる事業が一層拡大すると予想され 国際的 な協力体制の構築が必要である Samil

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51 Contacts Asia Yumiko Noda Partner ＰＰＰ インフラ部門アジア太平洋地区代表 Indonesia Rizal Satar Partner Indonesia Australia Mario D Elia Partner Australia mario.delia@au.pwc.com Malaysia/Thailand/Vietnam/Cambodia/Laos Andrew Chan Executive Director Malaysia andrew.yh.chan@my.pwc.com China Hongbin Cong Partner China hongbin.cong@cn.pwc.com Singapore/Philippines Mark Rathbone Partner Singapore mark.rathbone@sg.pwc.com India Manish Sharma Executive Director India manish.r.sharma@in.pwc.com South Korea Tae-Ho Lee Partner South Korea thlee@samil.com 51

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