Biblioteca del Banco de México

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1 Biblioteca del Banco de México Boletín mensual Abril 2015 CONTENIDO Presentación del libro: Respuestas propias 80 años de El Trimestre Nuevas adquisiciones Documentos publicados por investigadores del Banco de México Documentos publicados recientemente por otros bancos centrales u organismos gubernamentales Síguenos en: 1

2 El 10 de marzo de 2015 se llevó a cabo la presentación del libro: Respuestas Propias. 80 años de El Trimestre, en el Auditorio del Museo Franz Mayer. Fotografía de izquierda a derecha: Dr. Carlos Bazdresch, Dr. Gustavo del Ángel, Dr. Manuel Sánchez González, Dra. Graciela Márquez, Dr. Fausto Hernández y Mtro. Rodolfo de la Torre. 2

3 NUEVAS ADQUISICIONES Manual of political economy: critical and variorum edition Vilfredo Pareto; edited by Aldo Montesano... [et al.] Risk management and simulation Aparna Gupta The status quo crisis: global financial governance after the financial meltdown Eric Helleiner The end of normal: the great crisis and the future of growth James K. Galbraith Regulating long-term care quality: an international comparison edited by Vincent Mor, Tiziana Leone, Anna Maresso Negative binomial regression Joseph M. Hilbe Energy economics: concepts, issues, markets, and governance Subhes C. Bhattacharyya Enciclopedia del lenguaje C++ Fco. Javier Ceballos Sierra Fundamentals of oil & gas accounting Charlotte J. Wright and Rebecca A. Gallun Tradition and change in administrative law: an Anglo- German comparison Martina Künnecke Designing and constructing instruments for social research and evaluation David Colton and Robert W. Covert Introduction to oil company financial analysis David Johnston & Daniel Johnston Economics and the law: from Posner to post-modernism and beyond Nicholas Mercuro and Steven G. Medema Measurement error models Wayne A. Fuller Oil and gas production in nontechnical language Martin S. Raymond and William L. Leffler China s ownership transformation: process, outcomes, prospects Ross Garnaut... [et al.] Monte Carlo statistical methods Christian P. Robert, George Casella Towards a new paradigm in monetary economics Joseph Stiglitz and Bruce Greenwald Topics in advanced econometrics Phoebus J. Dhrymes Tax reform and the cost of capital: an international comparison Dale W. Jorgenson, Ralph Landau, editors 3

4 DOCUMENTOS PUBLICADOS POR INVESTIGADORES DEL BANCO DE MEXICO Aggregate effects of a universal social insurance fiscal reform Arturo Antón; Julio C. Leal- Ordoñez. Estimating capital flows to emerging market economies with heterogeneous panels Marco A. Hernandez Vega. DOCUMENTOS PUBLICADOS RECIENTEMENTE POR OTROS BANCOS CENTRALES U ORGANISMOS GUBERNAMENTALES Business cycle fluctuations and the distribution of consumption Giacomo De Giorgi and Luca Gambetti Sovereign risk, European crisisresolution policies, and bond spreads Juha Kilponen, Helinä Laakkonen and Jouko Vilmunen Central banks quasi-fiscal policies and inflation Seok Gil Park The equity risk premium: a review of models Fernando Duarte and Carlo Rosa How mortgage finance affects the urban landscape Sewin Chan, Andrew Haughwout, and Joseph Tracy Bank and sovereign risk feedback loops Aitor Erce The global component of local inflation: revisiting the empirical content of the global slack hypothesis with Bayesian methods Enrique Martínez-García Litigation in Spain : exploring the market for legal services Juan S. Mora-Sanguinetti; Nuno Garoupa Domestic bond markets and inflation Rose Spiegel A dynamic network model of the unsecured interbank lending market Falk Bräuning; Iman van Lelyveld; Francisco Blasques Interactions among highfrequency traders Evangelos Benos, James Brugler, Erik Hjalmarsson and Filip Zikes Exchange rate pass-through to prices: VAR evidence for Chile Santiago Justel; Andrés Sansone Dissent in FOMC meeting and the announcement drift Carlos Madeira; Joao Madeira A new liquidity risk measure for the Chilean banking sector Sebastián Becerra; Gregory Claeys; Juan Francisco Martínez Spain: from immigration to emigration? Aitor Lacuesta; Juan F. Jimeno; Mario Izquierdo 4

5 Nuevas adquisiciones Manual of political economy: critical and variorum edition Vilfredo Pareto; edited by Aldo Montesano... [et al.] Oxford, United Kingdom: Oxford University, Clasificación: 330 P227c Only Variorum translation of Pareto; Edited by 5 leading Pareto scholars, who have written extensive annotations and notes; High quality translation Vilfredo Pareto s Manual of Political Economy is a classic study in the history of economic thought for many reasons, the most noteworthy of which include the setting of general equilibrium economics within a choice theoretic framework based on the opposition between tastes and obstacles; the definitive formulation of economic efficiency, including the surplus approach to collective welfare; the technically flawed but nonetheless insightful treatment of path dependence in consumer theory; and the introduction of noncompetitive market analysis to the general equilibrium economics. In so doing, Pareto s general study of economic equilibrium not only substantially extended the contributions to economic theory made by Léon Walras, his predecessor in the Chair of Political Economy at the University of Lausanne, it did so in a manner that was often contrary to Walras s own thinking on the formalization of economic theory. 5

6 Risk management and simulation Aparna Gupta Boca Raton, Florida: Taylor & Francis, Clasificación: G977 The challenges of the current financial environment have revealed the need for a new generation of professionals who combine training in traditional finance disciplines with an understanding of sophisticated quantitative and analytical tools. Risk Management and Simulation shows how simulation modeling and analysis can help you solve risk management problems related to market, credit, operational, business, and strategic risk. Simulation models and methodologies offer an effective way to address many of these problems and are easy for finance professionals to understand and use. Drawing on the author s extensive teaching experience, this accessible book walks you through the concepts, models, and computational techniques. Organized into four parts, the book begins with the concepts and framework for risk management. It then introduces the modeling and computational techniques for solving risk management problems, from model development, verification, and validation to designing simulation experiments and conducting appropriate output analysis. The third part of the book delves into specific issues of risk management in a range of risk types. These include market risk, equity risk, interest rate risk, commodity risk, currency risk, credit risk, liquidity risk, and strategic, business, and operational risks. The author also examines insurance as a mechanism for risk management and risk transfer. The final part of the book explores advanced concepts and techniques. The book contains extensive review questions and detailed quantitative or computational exercises in all chapters. Use of MATLAB mathematical software is encouraged and suggestions for MATLAB functions are provided throughout. 6

7 The status quo crisis: global financial governance after the financial meltdown Eric Helleiner Oxford, United Kingdom: Oxford University, Clasificación: H477 The 2008 financial crisis was the worst since the Great Depression and many voices argued that it would transform global financial governance. Analysts anticipated a Bretton Woods moment, referring to the 1944 conference that established the postwar international financial order. Widespread expectations of change were then reinforced by the creation of the G20 leaders forum, extensive debates about the dollar s global role, the launching of international financial regulatory reforms, and the establishment of the Financial Stability Board. But half a decade later, how much has really changed? In The Status Quo Crisis, Helleiner surveys the landscape and argues that continuity has marked global financial governance more than dramatic transformation. The G20 leaders forum contributed much less to the management of the crisis than advertised. The US dollar remains unchallenged as the world s dominant international currency. The market-friendly nature of pre-crisis international financial regulation has been not overturned in a significant manner. And the Financial Stability Board has strengthened the governance of international financial standards in only very modest ways. 7

8 The end of normal: the great crisis and the future of growth James K. Galbraith New York: Simon & Schuster, Clasificación: G148 The years since the Great Crisis of 2008 have seen slow growth, high unemployment, falling home values, chronic deficits, a deepening disaster in Europe- -and a stale argument between two false solutions, austerity on one side and stimulus on the other. Both sides and practically all analyses of the crisis so far take for granted that the economic growth from the early 1950s until interrupted only by the troubled 1970s--represented a normal performance. From this perspective the crisis was an interruption, caused by bad policy or bad people, and full recovery is to be expected if the cause is corrected. The End of Normal challenges this view. Placing the crisis in perspective, Galbraith argues that the 1970s already ended the age of easy growth. The 1980s and 1990s saw only uneven growth, with rising inequality within and between countries. And the 2000s saw the end even of that--despite frantic efforts to keep growth going with tax cuts, war spending, and financial deregulation. When the crisis finally came, stimulus and automatic stabilization were able to place a floor under economic collapse. But they are not able to bring about a return to high growth and full employment. Today, four factors impede a return to normal. They are the rising costs of real resources, the now-evident futility of military power, the labor-saving consequences of the digital revolution, and the breakdown of law and ethics in the financial sector. The Great Crisis should be seen as a turning point, a barometer of the rise of unstable economic conditions, which should be regarded as the new normal. Policies and institutions going forward should be designed, above all, modestly, to cope with this fact, maintaining conditions for a good life in difficult times. 8

9 Regulating long-term care quality: an international comparison edited by Vincent Mor, Tiziana Leone, Anna Maresso Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University, Clasificación: R344 The number of elderly people relying on formal long-term care services is dramatically increasing year after year, and the challenge of ensuring the quality and financial stability of care provision is one faced by governments in both the developed and developing world. This edited book is the first to provide a comprehensive international survey of long-term care provision and regulation, built around a series of case studies from Europe, North America and Asia. The analytical framework allows the different approaches that countries have adopted to be compared side by side and readers are encouraged to consider which quality assurance approaches might best meet their own country s needs. Wider issues underpinning the need to regulate the quality of longterm care are also discussed. This timely book is a valuable resource for policymakers working in the health care sector, researchers and students taking graduate courses on health policy and management. Provides a comprehensive survey of different approaches to the structuring and regulating of long-term care quality, using a series of case studies from Europe, North America and Asia Broad range of international comparison: readers can examine the different approaches that developed and developing countries have adopted (including in-depth information about how different long-term care systems are organized and financed) Introductory chapter sets out important themes and trends to highlight wider issues underpinning the need to regulate the quality of longterm care, while the final chapter summarizes and analyses all the country-specific case studies to highlight policy options and their advantages and disadvantages. 9

10 Negative binomial regression Joseph M. Hilbe Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University, Clasificación: H This second edition of Hilbe s Negative Binomial Regression is a substantial enhancement to the popular first edition. The only text devoted entirely to the negative binomial model and its many variations, nearly every model discussed in the literature is addressed. The theoretical and distributional background of each model is discussed, together with examples of their construction, application, interpretation, and evaluation. Complete Stata and R code are provided throughout the text, with additional code (plus SAS), derivations, and data provided on the book s website. Written for the practicing researcher, the text begins with an examination of risk and rate ratios, and of the estimating algorithms used to model count data. The book then gives an in-depth analysis of Poisson regression and an evaluation of the meaning and nature of over dispersion, followed by a comprehensive analysis of the negative binomial distribution and of its parameterizations into various models for evaluating count data. It fully revised to incorporate recent software developments. Every model currently offered in a commercial statistical software package is discussed in detail Data sets and additional code available on a companion website. 10

11 Energy economics: concepts, issues, markets, and governance Subhes C. Bhattacharyya London, England: Springer, Clasificación: B575 Since its modest beginning in the 1970s, the academic and research focus on energy has grown substantially and energy has established itself as an independent, interdisciplinary subject area. It attracts attention from people in a range of different fields including engineers, scientists, geologists, environmentalists, bankers, investors, policy makers and politicians. Energy Economics introduces the basic concepts of energy economics and explains how simple economic tools can be used to analyze contemporary energy issues. Energy Economics is organized into six parts that give the reader a thorough grounding in various key aspects of the subject: basic demandrelated concepts and ideas used in energy economics; supplyside economics; energy markets, with specific emphasis on oil, gas and coal; the application of simple economic principles in analyzing contemporary energy issues; environmental aspects of energy use; and regulatory and governance issues. Energy Economics is an easily accessible reference book for students of energy economics at the postgraduate level, as well as for a wider interdisciplinary audience. It provides readers with the skills required to understand and analyze complex energy issues from an economic perspective. 11

12 Enciclopedia del lenguaje C++ Fco. Javier Ceballos Sierra México, D.F.: Alfaomega: Ra-Ma, Clasificación: C La programación orientada a objetos (POO) es una de las técnicas más modernas de desarrollo que trata de disminuir el coste del software, aumentando la eficiencia y reduciendo el tiempo de espera. Por eso, donde la POO toma verdadera ventaja es en el poder compartir y reutilizar el código. Sin embargo, no debe pensarse que esta forma de programación resuelve todos los problemas de desarrollo de una forma sencilla y rápida. Para conseguir buenos resultados, es preciso dedicar un tiempo mayor al análisis y al diseño, pero no será un tiempo perdido, ya que redundará en el empleado para la realización de aplicaciones futuras. Existen varios lenguajes que permiten escribir un programa orientado a objetos; entre ellos hemos elegido C++. Por qué C++? Porque posee características superiores a otros lenguajes. Las más importantes son programación modular y orientada a objetos, portabilidad, brevedad, compatibilidad con C y velocidad. Además, se trata de un lenguaje de programación estandarizado (ISO/IEC), ampliamente difundido, y con una biblioteca estándar C++ que lo ha convertido en un lenguaje universal, de propósito general, y ampliamente utilizado tanto en el ámbito profesional como en el educativo. Fundamentals of oil & gas accounting Charlotte J. Wright and Rebecca A. Gallun Tulsa, Oklahoma: PennWell, Clasificación: W An excellent training manual and professional reference, Fundamentals of Oil & Gas Accounting, 5th Edition, is packed with examples, diagrams, and appendices. The scope of this text is simply unmatched. The book has been completely updated to reflect the current issues facing oil and gas producers operating in both U.S. and international locations. Inside you ll find: anew chapter on asset retirement obligations and asset impairment; an added section on project analysis and investment decision making; updated coverage of asset exchanges and fair value reporting requirements; thorough discussion of oil and gas pricing and marketing arrangements, and updated examples and homework problems. 12

13 Tradition and change in administrative law: an Anglo-German comparison Martina Künnecke Berlin, Germany: Springer, Clasificación: K96 Administrative legal systems are based on national constitutional legal traditions and cultural values. English judges have for centuries applied the common law. In Germany, judges have developed administrative legal principles for the protection of the individual against state action. However, over the last few decades Administrative legal systems have become less isolated. This is the result of fundamental developments in the European legal landscape and of the increasing complexity of Administrative legal problems. In the UK, the constitutional basis for judicial review, principles of judicial control and governmental liability as well as the organization of the courts are changing. Both, the English and the German Administrative legal systems are increasingly faced with the question of how to balance the dynamics of change with the preserving forces of tradition. Here, the open attitude of judges and lawmakers in considering solutions offered elsewhere is a remarkable development in a field of law which has long been perceived as too nationally specific. There is a growing need for comparative material and analysis in Administrative law - this book provides a valuable contribution to this field of law. 13

14 Designing and constructing instruments for social research and evaluation David Colton and Robert W. Covert San Francisco, California: Jossey-Bass, Clasificación: C725 Written in easy-to-understand language, this important text provides a systematic and commonsense approach to developing instruments for data collection and analysis. This book can be used by both those who are developing instruments for the first time and those who want to hone their skills, including students, agency personnel, program managers, and researchers. This book provides a thorough presentation of instrument construction, from conception to development and pre-testing of items, formatting the instrument, administration, and, finally, data management and presentation of the findings. Throughout the book, the authors emphasize how to create an instrument that will produce trustworthy and accurate data. To that end they have included guidelines for reviewing and revising the questionnaire to enhance validity and reliability. They also show how to work effectively with stakeholders such as instruments designers, decision-makers, agency personnel, clients, and raters or respondents. 14

15 Introduction to oil company financial analysis David Johnston & Daniel Johnston Tulsa, Oklahoma: PennWell, Clasificación: J72 Basic principles are widely understood in the financial industry, but the terminology and analytical techniques can vary greatly. This book is written for the nonfinancial shareholders, managers, and oil company employees interested in the forces that influence stock values. The bottom line in any company is expressed in the language of finance. This book explains financial concepts in a nontechnical, practical way so that nonfinancial professionals and others may understand and appreciate this aspect of the business. When the first edition of this book was written, companies disclosed substantially less information than what is available today. This additional information allows a better understanding of the financial status and health of a company. But there is still room for improvement. Economics and the law: from Posner to post-modernism and beyond Nicholas Mercuro and Steven G. Medema Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University, Clasificación: M This is an expanded second edition of Nicholas Mercuro and Steven Medema s influential book Economics and the Law, whose publication in 1998 marked the most comprehensive overview of the various schools of thought in the burgeoning field of Law and Economics. Each of these competing yet complementary traditions has both redefined the study of law and exposed the key economic implications of the legal environment. The book remains true to the scope and aims of the first edition, but also takes account of the field s evolution. At the book s core is an expanded discussion of the Chicago school, Public Choice Theory, Institutional Law and Economics, and New Institutional Economics. A new chapter explores the Law and Economics literature on social norms, today an integral part of each of the schools of thought. The chapter on the New Haven and Modern Civic Republican approaches has likewise been expanded. These chapters are complemented by a discussion of the Austrian school of Law and Economics. Each chapter now includes an At Work section presenting applications of that particular school of thought. By providing readers with a concise, noncritical description of the broad contours of each school, this book illuminates the fundamental insights of a field with important implications not only for economics and the law, but also for political science, philosophy, public administration, and sociology. 15

16 Measurement error models Wayne A. Fuller Hoboken, New Jersey: Wiley-Interscience, Clasificación: F969 Measurement Error Models offers coverage of estimation for situations where the model variables are observed subject to measurement error. Regression models are included with errors in the variables, latent variable models, and factor models. Results from several areas of application are discussed, including recent results for nonlinear models and for models with unequal variances. The estimation of true values for the fixed model, prediction of true values under the random model, model checks, and the analysis of residuals are addressed, and in addition, procedures are illustrated with data drawn from nearly twenty real data sets. Oil and gas production in nontechnical language Martin S. Raymond and William L. Leffler Tulsa, Oklahoma: PennWell, Clasificación: R271 This nontechnical treatment is a great introduction to oil and gas production for anyone from beginning petroleum engineering and geology students to accountants, salespersons, and other professionals interested in the industry. Co-authored by Martin Raymond, a veteran production manager, and William Leffler, one of the top petroleum nontechnical writers, it is an easy-to-read reference for those who deal with petroleum industry personnel and production issues in their jobs, but need a quick overview of the technical and business issues. Complete with helpful charts and diagrams, this book covers everything from production equipment and processes to theory, business operations, and strategies. 16

17 China s ownership transformation: process, outcomes, prospects Ross Garnaut... [et al.] Washington, D.C.: World Bank, Clasificación: C5396 China s emergence as a global economic player has been accompanied by a major internal transformation. Over the past decade, the economy has made the transition from complete reliance on state-owned and collective enterprise to a mixed economy where private enterprise also plays a strong role. Gaizhi, a Chinese term meaning transforming the system, has become a major phenomenon in most parts of the country; in many cases it has involved full privatization. China s Ownership Transformation applies descriptive and econometric analysis to survey, and official statistical data to examine, the progress of gaizhi over the years and across regions. It discusses the main players in the process, their motivation and incentives, and looks at the forms, scope, and timing of gaizhi. The authors also provide an assessment of the outcomes of gaizhi, focusing on employee issues, corporate governance issues and from performance. The book concludes with discussion of the issues related to the fairness and efficiency of the gaizhi process, particularly concerning the role of management buy-outs and outside investors. These issues are at the center of a lively public debate in China, which is likely to influence future Chinese policies toward gaizhi. This title provides researchers, students, policymakers, and those interested in the emergence of China as a global manufacturing and economic powerhouse with in-depth information on the transformation of its state-owned sector. 17

18 Monte Carlo statistical methods Christian P. Robert, George Casella New York: Springer, Clasificación: R Monte Carlo statistical methods, particularly those based on Markov chains, are now an essential component of the standard set of techniques used by statisticians. This new edition has been revised towards a coherent and flowing coverage of these simulation techniques, with incorporation of the most recent developments in the field. In particular, the introductory coverage of random variable generation has been totally revised, with many concepts being unified through a fundamental theorem of simulation There are five completely new chapters that cover Monte Carlo control, reversible jump, slice sampling, sequential Monte Carlo, and perfect sampling. There is a more in-depth coverage of Gibbs sampling, which is now contained in three consecutive chapters. The development of Gibbs sampling starts with slice sampling and its connection with the fundamental theorem of simulation, and builds up to two-stage Gibbs sampling and its theoretical properties. A third chapter covers the multistage Gibbs sampler and its variety of applications. Lastly, chapters from the previous edition have been revised towards easier access, with the examples getting more detailed coverage. This textbook is intended for a second year graduate course, but will also be useful to someone who either wants to apply simulation techniques for the resolution of practical problems or wishes to grasp the fundamental principles behind those methods. The authors do not assume familiarity with Monte Carlo techniques (such as random variable generation), with computer programming, or with any Markov chain theory (the necessary concepts are developed in Chapter 6). A solutions manual, which covers approximately 40% of the problems, is available for instructors who require the book for a course. 18

19 Towards a new paradigm in monetary economics Joseph Stiglitz and Bruce Greenwald Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University, Clasificación: S855 This book argues for a theory of monetary economics which emphasizes the importance of the demand and supply of loanable funds and the role of credit. Expanding upon the literature of new institutional economics, the first part of the book stresses the significance of imperfections in information, bankruptcy and banks. The second part examines the policy implications of the new paradigm and demonstrates its relevance to our understanding of two recent historical episodes--the East Asian financial crisis and the 1991 US recession and subsequent recovery and boom. Topics in advanced econometrics Phoebus J. Dhrymes New York: Springer, Clasificación: D535 For some time now, I felt that the evolution of the literature of econometrics had mandated a higher level of mathematical proficiency. This is particularly evident beyond the level of the general linear model (GLM) and the general linear structural econometric model (GLSEM). The problems one encounters in nonlinear econometrics are not easily amenable to treatment by the analytical methods one typically acquires, when one learns about probability and inference through the use of den sity functions. Even in standard traditional topics, one is often compelled to resort to heuristics; for example, it is difficult to prove central limit theorems for nonidentically distributed or martingale sequences, solely by the use of characteristic functions. Yet such proofs are essential, even in only moderately sophisticated classroom exposition. Unfortunately, relatively few students enter a graduate economics de partment ready to tackle probability theory in measure theoretic terms. The present volume has grown out of the need to lay the foundation for such discussions. The motivating forces were, chiefly, (a) the frustration one encounters in attempting to communicate certain concepts to students wholly in analytic terms; and (b) the unwillingness of the typical student to sit through several courses in mathematics departments, in order to acquire the requisite background. 19

20 Tax reform and the cost of capital: an international comparison Dale W. Jorgenson, Ralph Landau, editors Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, Clasificación: T235 The tax reform movement that swept the U.S., Great Britain, and most other industrialized nations during the last decade has focused attention on international comparisons of the cost of capital. More recently, international comparability has become a critical issue tax harmonization. This is a vital concern in the European Community, as well as between Canada and the United States. This volume provides international comparisons of the cost of different types of capital for nine major industrialized countries-australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States-for the period In the early 1980s the introduction of tax incentives for saving and investment gradually shifted the tax base from income toward consumption. By 1990 most of these special tax provisions had been reduced or repealed in order to lower tax rates and equalize the tax treatment of different forms of capital income. Income was firmly reestablished as the most appropriate basis for taxation. Separate chapters for each of the nine countries, written by leading experts in public economics, provide detailed accounts of tax policy changes over the decade. Each chapter contains a quantitative description of these tax policies and summarizes this information in the form of effective tax rates. The book thus serves as an indispensable reference for comparing capital income taxation in industrialized counties during a period of rapid policy change. 20

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