Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty

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1 Strategic Energy Systems Planning under Uncertainty 1 Javier M. Moguerza 1 1 Department of Statistics and Operations Research University Rey Juan Carlos, Spain Oviedo, 25 de febrero de 2013 Jornada Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energética en la Edificación 1/21

2 Outline Introduction 1 Introduction EnRiMa Project EnRiMa DSS 2 Jornada Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energética en la Edificación 2/21

3 Introduction EnRiMa Project EnRiMa DSS The overall objective of EnRiMa is to develop a decision-support system (DSS) for operators of energy-efficient buildings and spaces of public use. Jornada Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energética en la Edificación 3/21

4 EnRiMa DSS Introduction EnRiMa Project EnRiMa DSS Jornada Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energética en la Edificación 4/21

5 DSS Architecture EnRiMa Project EnRiMa DSS Jornada Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energética en la Edificación 5/21

6 Scheme of the Models EnRiMa Project EnRiMa DSS Strategic DVs Strategic Module EnRiMaDSS Strategic Constraints Upper-Level Operational DVs Upper-Level Energy-Balance Constraints Lower-Level Operational DVs Operational Module Lower-Level Energy-Balance Constraints Jornada Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energética en la Edificación 6/21

7 Introduction Strategic DVs Strategic Module EnRiMaDSS Strategic Constraints Upper-Level Operational DVs Upper-Level Energy-Balance Constraints Lower-Level Operational DVs Operational Module Lower-Level Energy-Balance Constraints The strategic model is used in order to make strategic decisions concerning which technologies to install and/or de- commission in the long term. It includes a simplified version of operational energy-balance constraints. Jornada Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energética en la Edificación 7/21

8 Embedded Operational Model Strategic DVs Strategic Module EnRiMaDSS Strategic Constraints Upper-Level Operational DVs Upper-Level Energy-Balance Constraints Lower-Level Operational DVs Operational Module Lower-Level Energy-Balance Constraints The model includes the realisation of short-term decisions (t) that are scaled to a long-term period (p) through a representative profile (m). Jornada Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energética en la Edificación 8/21

9 Symbolic Model Specification Strategic Decisions x v,a i = x v,a 1 i xd v,a i xc v i = G i AG a i x v,a i a A Ages(i,v) n N Pur(k) h v k,n = 1... Jornada Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energética en la Edificación 9/21

10 Symbolic Model Specification (cont.) Operational Decisions z v,m,t i,k i I Gen + ( ro v,m,t i,k i I Sto i I Gen y v,m,t i,k + ) ri v,m,t i,k = D v,m,t k n N Pur(k) u v,m,t ( k,n 1 w v,m,t k,n n N S(k) i I PU OD v i,k xc v i )... Jornada Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energética en la Edificación 10/21

11 Symbolic Model Specification (cont.) Strategic & Operational link z v,m,t i,k DT m AF v,m,t i xc v i OA v i,k xc v i r v,m,t i,k OB v i,k xc v i u v,m,t k,n h v k,n ME k,n DT m Jornada Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energética en la Edificación 11/21

12 Energy-dispatching Decision Flow Fictitious u Market N Purchases w u u u Sales K qi w y qi Storage Technologies J Generation Technologies I z qo Demand K Jornada Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energética en la Edificación 12/21

13 Objective Introduction minimize v V(1 + DR) PT v PR v + m M DM m i I t T Tm(m,t) (CI v i SU v i ) G i xi v i + PP v,m,t k,n n N Pur(k,n) + CD v,a i a A Ages(i,v) CM v,a i a A Ages(i,v) G i xd v,a i G i x v,a i u v,m,t k,n SP v,m,t k,n w v,m,t k,n n N S(k,n) + CO v i,k z v,m,t i,k + CO v i,k r v,m,t i,k i I Gen,k K Out(i,k) i I Sto,k K Po(i,k) Jornada Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energética en la Edificación 13/21

14 Scenario Tree Introduction First Stage Second Stage Third Stage PT 1 = 0 PT 2 = 1 PT 3 = 2 PT 4 = 3 PT 5 = PT 6 = PT 7 = 4 PT 8 = 1 PT 9 = 2 PT 10 = 3 PT 11 = PT 12 = PT 13 = 4 5 PR PR 6 PR 1 = 1 0 < PR 2 = PR 3 = PR 4 < 1 7 PR < PR 8 = PR 9 = PR 10 < 1 11 PR PR PR 13 Jornada Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energética en la Edificación 14/21

15 Illustrative Example In Energy efficiency and risk management in public buildings: Strategic model for robus planning. Cano, Moguerza, Ermolieva, Ermoliev. Under revision. Main facts Two-stage problem. Decision time horizon: 5 years. Only electricity demand, one supplier and two possible technologies: PV and CHP. Jornada Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energética en la Edificación 15/21

16 Illustrative Example (cont.) Optimisation Result Strategic Decisions Capacity to be installed CHP PV RTE Technology by Year Optimisation Result Operational Decisions RTE PV Operation level Total Cost 65, EUR Year Jornada Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energética en la Edificación 16/21

17 Illustrative Example (cont.) Scenarios invchp invpv operrte operng Demand Probability s s s s s Model Cost (EUR) Deterministic Scenario 1 65, Stochastic 62, Stochastic sol1 62, Deterministic av. val 62, Stochastic sol2 Infeasible Value of Stochastic Solution: Jornada Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energética en la Edificación 17/21

18 Demo GUI prototype Jornada Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energética en la Edificación 18/21

19 Introduction DSS for building operators. Integrated modules: solver manager, scenario generator, user iterface. Strategic and operational decisions. Interacting with each other. Stochastic Optimization as a tool to deal with uncertainty and manage risk. Jornada Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energética en la Edificación 19/21

20 Acknowledgements This work has been partially funded by the projects: Energy Efficiency and Risk Management in Public Buildings (EnRiMa) EC s FP7 project (number ) OPTIMOS3 (MTM C06-06) RIESGOS-CM (code S2009/ESP-1685) Jornada Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energética en la Edificación 20/21

21 Discussion Introduction Thanks for your attention! Jornada Proyectos Europeos en Eficiencia Energética en la Edificación 21/21

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