Accelerating Adoption Through Soft Cost Reductions

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1 Accelerating Adoption Through Soft Cost Reductions James Tong VP, Strategy & Government Affairs May 2014

2 Clean Power Finance Serves as a Marketplace for the Residential Solar Industry Manufacturers Distributors Installers Financial Services and Software for the Solar Industry Utilities Corporates Financial Institutions Innovating and Leading Change Driving cost reductions in the solar industry: Awarded 3 grants from the SunShot Initiatives Accelerating mass adoption of residential solar: Co-leading big-data analysis with NREL on solar adoption 2

3 System Price ($/W) Comparison of Average Prices for Residential Solar U.S. markets were 2-3x the price of other countries Japan was able to reduce residential system pricing by 21% versus 9% by U.S. Soft costs represent the difference. $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 Price Range Typical Price, Dec. '13 Typical Price, Dec. '12 Belgium Denmark Italy Japan U.S. Sources: 2013 (IEA reporting by country, Jan. 14); 2012 (IEA PVPS (01/18/13)); compiled by NREL. MN saw a 25% decrease from Q3 to Q (from $6.02 $4.59) MN installed only 0.2MW of residential solar in Q4 and less than 0.5MW for all of 2013 MN = $4.51/W USA = $4.59/W Source: GTM Research: US Solar Market Insight Annual Review

4 Breakdown of Soft Costs of Residential Solar Systems $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 Permitting, Inspection & Interconnection Customer Acquisition Costs Transaction Costs Supply Chain Costs Installation Labor Sales Tax Other Cost Softs costs (or non-hardware costs) account for an average of $3.32/W, over 60% of the price of a PV system. Permitting account for an average of $0.19/W for installation Customer acquisition costs (CAC) account for an average of $0.48/W Other studies placed CAC at ~ $0.70/W $0.00 Source: NREL: Benchmarking Non-Hardware Balance of System (Soft) Costs. (12/2013) 4

5 Permitting Challenges Add Costs & Constrain Growth 5

6 Introducing SolarPermit.Org: The National Solar Permitting Database Free, online database with city and county permitting information Database is crowd sourced -- populated by installers and AHJs Voting tools ensure accuracy of the data 6

7 SolarPermit.org Webpage for Minneapolis 7

8 Partnering with Industry Stakeholders Vote Solar is pulling SolarPermit.org data to populate their website, ProjectPermit.org, which grades cities and counties. Installers nationwide are contributing data and using the database to: Pool resources to reduce time spent on tracking permitting requirements Reduce costs by avoiding re-work and re-submissions Facilitate solar s expansion into new areas. Catalyze permitting reforms among jurisdictions. 8

9 Customer Acquisition Is Perhaps The Biggest Cost Driver Penetration of solar is ~500K homes. Adoption accelerates with increased solar visibility Customer acquisition costs impact all costs Unpredictable consumer demand creates frictional cost throughout the solar supply chain (bullwhip effect) Better consumer understanding more predictable demand lower soft costs 9

10 % of Households % of Households Technology Adopt Curves Technology Market Penetration Diffusion of in Selected the United Technologies States 1900 from Market Penetration of Selected Technologies Stove Telephone Stove Electricity Telephone Auto Electricity Auto Radio Radio Refrigerator Refrigerator Clothes Washer Clothes Washer Clothes Dryer Clothes Dryer Dishwasher Dishwasher Air Conditioning Air Conditioning Color Color TV TV Microwave VCR VCR Computer Computer Cell Phone Cell Phone Internet Internet Less than 1% of households in the U.S. currently has solar. Source: Federal Reserves of San Francisco and Dallas, compiled by NREL. 10

11 Consumer Research Study Led By NREL DOE-funded study to understand the drivers and barriers of solar adoption Builds on diffusion of innovations research. What does it take to get from here to here Source: Geoffrey Moore, Crossing the Chasm 11

12 Factors Influencing the Diffusion of Innovations Factor Relative advantage Compatibility Complexity Trialability Observability Definition How improved an innovation is over the previous generation How easily can the innovation be assimilated into an individual s life Perceptions of the level of complexity of the innovation How easily an innovation may be tried or tested before adoption How visible is the innovation and its benefits to others people How Rooftop Solar Performs? Currently, solar is weak on all factors except complexity. 12

13 The Consumer Adoption Process Classic Consumer Purchase Funnel Solar Sales Funnel Key Barriers Solar not advantageous or compatible for many consumer segments Almost no trialability - no testing before buying. PV systems are readily observable, but promised benefits are not. 13

14 No One Company Can Drive Mass Adoption Top 50 Residential PV Installers in California Q1 & Q2, large PV installers 8,747 Residential PV systems 617 PV installers Highly Fragmented Downstream Market No equivalent of an Apple or Toyota to champion residential solar Educating consumers on solar benefits all players 50% of the PV Market 600 medium and small PV installers Category vs. Competitive Sale Consumers need to be sold on solar first before being sold on different options Information is abundant but conflicting consumer confusion slower adoption 14

15 Study on Neighborhood Adoption and Social Contagion Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Strongly disagree 31% of adopters talked to other PV owners; of these 57% thought this strongly improved the quality of information Average decision time to adopt was 8.9 months. Factors decreasing decision time are: o Seeing PV on neighbors roof o Talking to neighbors with PV o Leasing systems Strong interest in online PV information (51% respondents) hosted by an independent party like government or utility (30%) Social contagion will likely drive solar adoption Source: Environmental Research Letter (Rai and Robinson)

16 Call Leads Fast and Call Them at Least 6 Times Source: Velocify and Clean Energy Experts 16

17 Implications Referrals and references will remain essential for growth Social media is largely an untapped resource. Utilities can potentially be a key partner in driving solar adoption. Options for leasing systems or community solar will accelerate solar adoption. Following up quickly on identified solar prospects (i.e. leads) is critical 17

18 Appendix 18

19 Residential Solar Currently Dominated by Third Party Owned (TPO) Financing Growing Share of TPO Financing Installation Costs of Residential PV Source: NREL, CSI Database, MA SREC Program, Arizona Public Services, Salt River Project ; Maryland Energy Administration. TPO financing becoming increasingly popular. The installed cost of TPO financed systems are equivalent or less than the cost of host-owned systems. 19

20 Third Party Financing Currently Limited in Select States Availability of Residential Third Party Solar Financing TPO financing available in areas where states clarify that such providers would not be regulated as utilities. More predictability in state incentives/rebates and net energy metering policies would promote more TPO financing and solar adoption, in general. 20

21 Studies suggest TPO Financing is open solar to new customer segments Correlation between PV adoption and household income Source: Drury et al NREL study suggests that TPO financing is opening solar to household with more modest incomes households. UT Austin study makes similar conclusion. TPO financing may enhance sales of host-owned systems. Separate studies by Yale and UT Austin indicate greater visibility of solar accelerates consumer adoption 21

22 Differences in PV economics for lease v. own (Rai and Sigrin) PV adopters have similar expectations of returns Third Party customers have higher returns Third Party customers have a better understanding/estimate of returns ~300 customers (mostly Dallas, Austin) TPO customers reported tighter cash flow led them to lease rather than buy. Differences in expected returns in lease vs. own are possibly a reflection of the greater need for precision for TPO products. 22

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