Public debt Q Quarterly newsletter

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1 Warsaw, 1 September 215 Public debt Q2 215 Quarterly newsletter 1. At the end of the second quarter of 215 consolidated public debt(according to domestic methodology) stood at PLN 858,151.6 million* which meant: - an increase by PLN 9,968.2 (+1.2%) in the second quarter of 215, - an increase by PLN 31,379.9 (+3.8%) in comparison with the end of Increase of public debt in the second quarter of 215 resulted from: - increase of central government sector debt by PLN 9,999.1 million (+1.3%), consolidated State Treasury debt increased by PLN 1,4.9 million (+1.3%), - decrease of local government sector debt by PLN 29.5 million (-.4%), local government units debt decreased by PLN 255. million (-.4%), - decrease of social security sector debt by PLN 1.4 million (-1.3%). 3.Attheendofthesecondquarterof215unconsolidatedpublicdebtstoodat PLN 937,824.4 million* which meant: - an increase by PLN 13,266.6 (+1.4%) in the second quarter of 215, - an increase by PLN 38,976.7 (+4.3%) in comparison with the end of At the end of the second quarter of 215 general government debt (EDP debt, part of the government finance Maastricht criterion) was at PLN 895,741.6 million*. EDP debt: - increased by PLN 9,357.2 million (+1.1%) in the second quarter of 215, - increased by PLN 28,748.1 (+3.3%) compared with the end of Similarly to public debt measured according to domestic methodology, the in EDP debt in the second quarter of 215 resulted mainly from s in State Treasury debt. Moreover EDP debt was influenced by increase in debt of National Road Fund (by PLN million) and corporations included in general government sector (by PLN million) and increase of T-securities held by National Road Fund and Bank Guarantee Fund (by PLN 1,322.2) (which decreases EDP debt due to increase of consolidation between units of the general government sector). After the decision of the Central Statistical Office to incorporate Agencja Rozwoju Przemysłu S.A. in the general government sector, the EDP debt time series were revised starting from the first quarter of 21. The differences between public debt according to domestic definition and general governmentdebtare presentedin chart3(page2) andin table3 (page 7). * Data regarding the second quarter of 215 are preliminary. Data regarding previous periods were updated if necessary. Table 1. Public debt according to the place of issue criterion - after consolidation (m PLN, at nominal value, eop) structure structure structure Item Q4 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q2 215 Q Q1 215 Q Q4 214 PLN m % PLN m % Public debt 826, % 848, % 858, % 9, % 31, % Domestic debt 534, % 559, % 564, % 5, % 29, % 1. Debt securities 48, % 51, % 56, % 5, % 26, % 2. Loans 52, % 52, % 51, % % % 3. Other domestic liabilities 1,94.6.2% 5, % 6,91.4.7% % 4, % Foreign debt 291, % 288, % 293, % 4, % 1, % 1. Debt securities 28, % 29, % 212, % 3, % 3, % 2. Loans 83, % 79, % 81, % 1, % -2, % 3. Other foreign liabilities 9.9.% 8.5.% 11.2.% % % Table 2. Public debt according to the residency criterion - after consolidation (m PLN, at nominal value, eop) structure structure structure Item Q4 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q2 215 Q Q1 215 Q Q4 214 PLN m % PLN m % Public debt 826, % 848, % 858, % 9, % 31, % Domestic debt 354, % 368, % 375, % 7, % 2, % 1. Debt securities 3, % 31, % 317, % 6, % 17, % 2. Loans 52, % 52, % 51, % % % 3. Other domestic liabilities 1,94.6.2% 5, % 6,91.4.7% % 4, % Foreign debt 472, % 48, % 482, % 2,84.1.6% 1, % 1. Debt securities 388, % 4, % 41, % 1, % 12, % 2. Loans 83, % 79, % 81, % 1, % -2, % 3. Other foreign liabilities 9.9.% 8.5.% 11.2.% % % 1

2 Chart 1. Public debt 9 75 Public debt q/q 12% 9% 6% 6 3% % -3% -6% -9% -15 Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2-12% Chart 2. EDP debt 9 75 EDP debt q/q 12% 9% 6% 6 3% % -3% -6% -9% -15 Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2-12% Chart 3. Differences between public debt and general government debt Q1 215 Q Debt of National Road Fund (+) T-Securities held by funds managed by BGK (-) National Road Fund (aquisition of infrastructure assets) (+) T-Securities held by BGF Reaserch & development units/agricultural Market Agency (-) Public corporations included in general government sector (+) Matured payables (-) Other differences Differences between public debt and general government debt 2

3 Chart 4. Public debt according to the place of issue criterion At the end of the second quarter of 215 domestic debt stood at PLN bn, up by PLN 5.4 bn (+1.%) compared with the end of the first quarterof 215. Foreign debtstood atpln293.6bn,upbypln4.6bn(+1.6%)duetoissuanceof CHF-denominated and EUR-denominated bonds (CHF.58 billion and EUR 1. billion) repurchase of CHF-denominated bond (CHF 1.5 billion) and depreciation of zloty against EUR (2.6%) and CHF (3.3%) and appreciation against USD (1.3%) and JPY (2.8%) Domestic debt Foreign debt Chart 5. Structure of public debt according to the place of issue criterion At the end of the second quarter of 215 the share of foreign debt in the total debt amounted to 34.2%, up by.1 percentage points. Compared with the end of 214 the share decreased by 1.1 percentage points. 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Domestic debt Foreign debt Chart 6. Public debt by holder In the second quarter of 215 public debt towards: - domestic banking sector increased by PLN 4.7 bn (+2.1%), - domestic non-banking sector increased by PLN 2.4 bn (+1.7%), - foreign investors (non-residents) increased by PLN 2.8 bn (+.6%) Domestic banking sector Domestic non-banking sector Foreign investors Chart 7. Structure of public debt by holder In the second quarter of 215 the share of public debt towards foreign investors fell from 56.6% to 56.3%. The share of public debt towards domestic banking sector and domestic non-banking sector rose by.3 and.1 percentage points to 27.2% and 16.6% respectively. Since the beginning of 215 the share of public debt towards foreign investors fell by.8 percentage points. 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Domestic banking sector Domestic non-banking sector Foreign investors 3

4 Chart 8. Consolidated public debt by sub-sector At the end of the second quarter of 215 public debt consisted of: - central government debt - PLN 787. billion, - local government debt - PLN 71.1 billion, - social security funds debt - PLN.1 billion Central government Local government Social security funds Chart 9. Structure of consolidated public debt by sub-sector The ratio of central government debt to total debt rose by.1 percentage points to 91.7%. The local government subsector contribution was 8.3% of the total debt, of which 7.9% represents debt of local government units and their unions. The share of social security funds debt remains below of.1% 1% 96% 92% 88% 84% 8% Central government Local government Social security funds Chart 1. Changes in consolidated public debt by subsector The increase of public debt in the second quarter of 215 (by PLN 1. bn) was a result of: - central government debt increase by PLN 1. bn (+1.3%), - local government debt decrease by PLN.3 bn (-.4%), - social security funds debt decrease by PLN.1 bn (- 1.3%) Q1 215 Q Central government Local government Social security funds Chart 11. Structure of public debt by instrument At the end of the second quarter of 215 marketable instruments comprised 83.7% of public debt, including instruments issued on the domestic market (59.%). The share of marketable instruments in public debt decreased in the second quarter of 215 by.1 percentage points. 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Domestic marketable instruments Foreign marketable instruments Domestic non-marketable instruments Foreign non-marketable instruments 4

5 Chart 12. Unconsolidated debt of public finance sector units other than ST At the end of the second quarter of 215, the unconsolidated debt of units other than ST amounted to 12.8% of public debt. Among those entities the debt oflocal government units and Social Insurance Institution (ZUS) and its funds constituted the biggest part LGUs Central public healthcare units ZUS and its funds Local public healthcare units State institutions of higher education Other units Chart 13. Consolidated debt of public finance sector units other than ST 125 At the end of the second quarter of 215 the difference between consolidated and unconsolidated debt of public finance sector units other than ST was PLN 47.1 bn. The reason is that 39.3% of their debt are liabilities towards other public finance sector units. The increasing debt of ZUS funds does not contribute to the consolidated public debt due to the fact that the State budget loan was used as an instrument for financing part of FUS deficit LGUs Central public healthcare units Local public healthcare units State institutions of higher education Chart 14. Structure of unconsolidated debt of LGUs and their associations according to place of issue criterion 1% The structure of local government liabilities and their unions was dominated by domestic debt, although the share of foreign debt has been increasing steadily, reaching 21% in % 6% 4% 2% % Domestic debt Foreign debt Chart 15. Structure of unconsolidated debt of LGUs and their associations by instrument Loans prevailed in the structure of liabilities of LGUs and their associations with share of 93.7%. The role of loans in LGUs debt financing have been gradually growing since 24 reaching its peak at the end % 8% 6% 4% 2% % Loans Securities Other liabilities 5

6 Chart 16. Public debt, EDP debt and State Treasury debt to GDP ratios (eop)* 6% Public debt EDP debt ST debt 55% 53.6% 54.8% 54.4% 55.7% 53.1% 5% 45% 4% 35% 43.5% 41.8% 38.7% 4.5% 37.3% 36.4% 49.8% 52.% 52.5% 52.% 48.3% 5.2% 47.4% 47.5% 49.2% 46.5% 46.6% 5.4% 49.6% 47.8% 48.8% 49.1% 46.8% 46.6% 46.7% 47.1% 44.2% 45.3% 46.4% 44.4% 44.8% 44.7% 44.9% 44.6% 45.1% 43.4% 42.3% Source: Ministry of Finance 18% * corrected data for 214 EDP debt Chart 17. EDP debt to GDP ratio by European Union Member State 16% 14% Q4 214 Q % 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 1.6% 1.5% reference value = 6% PKB 22.1% 21.6% 27.6% 29.6% 4.% 35.% 4.8% 38.1% 39.8% 38.4% 42.6% 42.4% 43.9% 44.% 45.1% 44.4% 5.2% 5.8% 53.6% 54.% 59.3% 6.3% 67.9% 68.9% 68.5% 7.3% 74.9% 74.4% 76.9% 77.6% 8.9% 81.9% 84.6% 84.9% 85.1% 87.7% 86.9% 88.2% 89.3% 88.5% 92.% 92.9% 95.6% 97.5% 97.7% 98.% 19.7% 14.7% 17.5% 16.8% 16.6% 111.% 13.2% 129.6% 132.1% 135.1% 177.1% 168.8% Source: Eurostat - Ministry of Finance Chart 18. Changes in EDP debt to GDP ratio by European Union Member State 1 Q Q4 214 Q Q p.p Source: Eurostat - Ministry of Finance Chart 19. Debt to GDP ratio in Poland, European Union and euro area (eop) 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% Poland European Union Euro area 91.% 92.% 89.1% 85.8% 83.7% 78.4% 86.9% 85.5% 83.7% 8.9% 67.4% 68.6% 78.3% 65.% 73.1% reference value = 6% PKB 6.5% 61.% 57.9% 53.6% 54.8% 54.4% 55.7% 49.8% 5.2% 47.1% 44.2% 46.6% Source: Eurostat - Ministry of Finance 6

7 Table 3. Differences between public debt (according to domestic methodology) and general government debt (PLN m) ITEM Q4 21 Q4 211 Q4 212 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Public debt 747, , , , , , , , , , ) Adjustments concerning the scope of the sector 25, , , , , , , , , ,687.8 Debt of National Road Fund 24, , , , , , , , , ,38.1 T-Securities held by funds managed by Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego , ,32. -1, , ,21.9-2,27.3-2,547.5 Aquisition of infrastructure assets 8, , , , , , , , , ,445.9 T-Securities held by Bank Guarantee Fund -7, ,29.7-9, , , , , ,57.6-1, ,263.4 Public corporations included in general government sector , , , , ,29.1 9, , ,14.7 2) Differences concerning debt instruments -3, , , ,98.4-1,89.9-2,29.5-2,8.8-2,21. -2,7.1-2,97.9 matured payables -3,86.1-3,54.4-3, ,22.1-1, , ,55.4-1, , ,113.1 debt assumption - activation of a guarantee restructured/refinanced trade credits derivatives General government debt 77, , , , , , , , , ,741.6 ** according to the Public Finance Act of August 27th 29 (Journal of Law dated September 24th 29) from Jan 1st 21 Research and Development Units are not Table 4. Public debt - before consolidation (m PLN, at nominal value, eop) structure structure structure ITEM Q4 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q2 215 m PLN % m PLN % Public debt 898, % 924, % 937, % 13, % 38, % 1. Central government sector debt 781, % 88, % 819, % 11, % 37, % 1.1. State Treasury 779, % 86, % 817, % 11, % 37, % 1.2. Earmarked State funds..%..%..% State institutions of higher education % % % % % 1.4. Independent public healthcare units 1, % 1, % 1, % % % 1.5. State institutions of culture 8.9.% 6.7.% 8.1.% % % 1.6. Polish Academy of Science and units established by it 6.1.% 2.5.% 2.8.%.2 9.% % 1.7. Other central government legal entities established under separate acts for public tasks execution, with the exeption of enterprises, banks and companies organized 7.3.% 7.3.% 7.1.% % % 2. Local government sector debt 77, % 76, % 76, % 2.3.% % 2.1. Local government units 72, % 71, % 71, % % -1, % 2.2. Independent public health units 4,38.8.4% 4,92.1.4% 4, % % % 2.3. Local institutions of culture 86.6.% 74.8.% 67.3.% % % 2.4. Other local government legal entities established under separate acts for public tasks execution, with the exeption of enterprises, banks and companies organized % % % % % 3. Social Security Sector debt 39, % 39, % 41, % 1, % 1, % 3.1. Social Insurance Institution..%..%..% % 3.2. Funds managed by Social Insurance Institution 39, % 39, % 41, % 1, % 1, % 3.3. Agricultural Social Insurance Fund..%..%..% National Health Fund..%..%..% *According to the Public Finance Law of August 27th 29 (Journal of Law dated September 24th 29) from Jan 1st 21 Research and Development Units ceased to be included in the public finance sector. Table 5. Public debt - after consolidation (m PLN, at nominal value, eop) structure structure structure ITEM Q4 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q2 215 m PLN % m PLN % Public debt 826, % 848, % 858, % 9, % 31, % 1. Central government sector debt 754, % 776, % 786, % 9, % 31, % 1.1. State Treasury 753, % 775, % 785, % 1, % 31, % 1.2. Earmarked State funds..%..%..% State institutions of higher education % % % % % 1.4. Independent public health units 1, % 1, % 1, % % % 1.5. State institutions of culture 2.4.% 1.5.% 1.1.% % % 1.6. Polish Academy of Science and units established by it 5.7.% 2.1.% 2.2.%.1 4.3% % 1.7. Other central government legal entities established under separate acts for public tasks execution, with the exeption of enterprises, banks and companies organized 2.2.% 2.1.% 1.9.% % % 2. Local government sector debt 71, % 71, % 71, % % % 2.1. Local government units 68, % 67, % 67, % % % 2.2. Independent public health units 3,331..4% 3, % 3,69.9.4% % % 2.3. Local institutions of culture 61.7.% 51.3.% 48.1.% % % 2.4. Other local government legal entities established under separate acts for public tasks execution, with the exeption of enterprises, banks and companies organized 3.4.% 23.6.% 22.3.% % % 3. Social Security Sector debt % % % % % 3.1. Social Insurance Institution..%..%..% % 3.2. Funds managed by Social Insurance Institution % % % % % 3.3. Agricultural Social Insurance Fund..%..%..% National Health Fund..%..%..% Q Q1 215 Q Q4 214 Q Q1 215 Q Q4 214 Ministry of Finance Public Debt Department tel

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