and New Jersey FRBNY Research The views expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those
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1 Household Debt and Credit in the US and New Jersey Andy Haughwout FRBNY Research The views expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.
2 2
3 Representative Panel and Household Matching Unique sample design generating a longitudinal quarterly panel of individuals and households from Universe: entire US Population with credit files (~240 million individuals per quarter, aged 18 and older.) Sample selection: random 5% using last 4 digits of SSN + All household members Household matching: based on home address Representative sample of US individuals and households (about 40 million individuals per quarter) 3
4 Main Features of FRBNY CCP Longitudinal information on all individual id mortgages: first mortgages, closed-end seconds, HELOCs Individual mortgage account variables: opening date, origination amount, current balance, credit limit, it delinquency status, t individual/joint account, term/monthly payment, GSE loan, narrative codes detailing credit events such as foreclosure No LTVs Consumer level information on auto loans, credit cards, student loans Consumer-level l auto loan, credit card, student t loan data: Total Balance/Number of accounts by Delinquency Status, origination amount and credit limit Public record information Public record information on bankruptcies, collections, tax liens Individual characteristics Borrower characteristics: birth year, geographic location (state, zipcode, census block) 4
5 THE NATION 5
6 6
7 Peak in 2008Q3: $ T 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 HOW HAS DEBT BEEN REDUCED? 12
13 13
14 14
15 STATE-LEVEL ANALYSIS 15
16 Total Debt Balance per Capita* by State Thousands of Dollars Thousands of Dollars 100 National Average NJ FL NV NV TX NY AZ CA PA CA 80 AZ NJ NY TX PA 20 03:Q1 04:Q1 05:Q1 06:Q1 07:Q1 08:Q1 09:Q1 10:Q1 11:Q1 12:Q1 20 Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax Note: Based on the population with a credit report 16
17 Total Debt Balance per Capita* by State Thousands of Dollars Thousands of Dollars National Average NJ TX NY AZ FL NV CA PA NV CA ~$63,000 pc AZ NJ NY TX PA 20 03:Q1 04:Q1 05:Q1 06:Q1 07:Q1 08:Q1 09:Q1 10:Q1 11:Q1 12:Q1 20 Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax Note: Based on the population with a credit report 17
18 Composition of Debt Balance per Capita* by State (2012 Q2) Thousands of Dollars Thousands of Dollars Mortgage HE Revolving Auto Loan Credit Card Student Loan Other AZ CA FL NJ NV NY PA TX US 0 Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax * Based on the population with a credit report 18
19 Composition of Debt Balance per Capita* by State (2012 Q2) Thousands of Dollars Thousands of Dollars Mortgage HE Revolving Auto Loan Credit Card Student Loan Other 60 80% secured by res RE AZ CA FL NJ NV NY PA TX US 0 Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax * Based on the population with a credit report 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 SUB-STATE LEVEL (JUST A TASTE) Using LP and LPS data 23
24 Source: LoanPerformance and LPS 24
25 Source: LoanPerformance and LPS 25
26 Source: LoanPerformance and LPS 26
27 Source: LoanPerformance and LPS 27
28 Intra-state foreclosure rates: Essex County highest, 11.3% of mortgages Hunterdon County lowest at 3.4% Within Essex, Union and Hudson, Newark zip codes stand out Millburn has lowest rates 28
29 Conclusions US households are reducing debt Since 2008 Q3 Default plays a role, but so does pay-off NJ households paying off more slowly State now number 2 in debt per capita (behind Calif) Real estate debt dominates Serious delinquencies in NJ have remained high Almost 9% of consumer debt is 90 DPD Only Nevada, Florida and NY have higher rates Nonetheless, foreclosure rates are below national average Most of these high rates are driven by pockets of mortgage distress Especially in Newark 29
30 For More Information
31 END 31
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