Can Effective Debt Management Help Financial Stability?
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1 Can Effective Debt Management Help Financial Stability? Arindam Roy, Commonwealth Secretariat World Bank Conference: Sovereign Debt and Financial Crisis: Will this time be Different? March, 2010, Tunis
2 Topics to be covered 1. Global Economic Scenario 2. Challenges in Public Debt Management 3. Conclusion
3 Global Economic Scenario
4 Soaring Public Debt in Advanced Economies - A Threat to Fiscal Sustainability Source: BIS, 2010
5 Fiscal Consolidation in Advanced Economies A Daunting Task Ahead Source: BIS, 2010
6 Debt Dynamics and Interest Rates in Advanced Economics Source: BIS, 2010
7 G-Secs Supply Glut Risks Interest Rate Hardening Source: OECD, 2009
8 Sovereign Credit Quality Under Pressure Source: Standard & Poors, 2010
9 Rising Specter of Sovereign Default in Advanced Economies? Source: IMF, 2010
10 Rising Specter of Sovereign Default in EMEs? CDS Spreads Highest Default Probabilities Entity Name Mid Spread CPD (%) Venezuela Argentina Pakistan Ukraine Iraq Dubai/Emirate of Iceland Greece Latvia, Republic of Dominican Republic Source: CMA Vision, March 2010
11 Risk of Sovereign Debt Refinancing in some Developing Countries Source: World Bank, 2010
12 Small State Economies with Heavy Debt Burden Vulnerable to Debt Problems Source: Debt Watch Caribbean, 2009
13 Challenges in Public Debt Management
14 Trade-off in Debt Structure in OECD Countries Significant rollover risk on T-Bills for many LIC countries Source: OECD, 2009
15 Risks of Market Disruption Increased competition in raising funds by sovereigns enhances funding risk High sovereign borrowing in advanced economies and in some EMEs Increased refinancing risk due to reliance on short-term borrowings in advanced economies Recovery in credit growth to the private sector in EMEs can enhance pressures on funding risk of sovereigns Impact of potential exit by foreign investors particularly in some EMEs with high FII holdings Health of Primary Dealers
16 Risk of Yield Curve Steepening Excess supply of govt. securities risk steepening of yield curve in future A number of factors are currently delaying this Immediate negative impact on balance sheet of financial institutions Source: BIS, 2010
17 CDS: What happens if sovereign defaults? Credit Default Swaps: Counter-party risk of paying up in case of default Net transfer of credit risk through CDS is relatively low (net outstanding CDS % of total debt) Will limit on short-selling in G-secs reduce volatility in CDS spreads? Source: BIS, 2010
18 Risk containment through derivatives for debt management Greek Example Accounting on derivatives position biased to depress current debt stock Are more countries to follow suit? Risk of future rise in off-balance sheet liabilities through existing derivatives position in some EMEs? Source: BIS, 2010
19 Conclusion
20 Heightened Challenges in PDM Need for a fiscal consolidation plan in advanced economies and in many developing countries Well sequenced, timing and pace on exit policy between fiscal and monetary authorities Ensuring smooth funding requirements through market modulation within a transparent debt management framework Redressing systemic linkages between PDM and balance sheet of country Temporary debt relief or restructuring of small states sovereign debt?
21 References 1. Stephen C Cecchetti, M S Mohanty, and Fabrizio Zampolli; The Future of Public Debt: Prospects and Implications, BIS, February BIS Quarterly Review, BIS, March IMF, Global Financial Stability Report, Market Update, January Hans J. Blommestein and Arzu Gok, The Surge in Borrowing Needs of OECD Governments: Revised Estimates for 2009 and 2010, Financial Market Trends, OECD, December Hans J. Blommestein, Responding to the Crisis: Changes in OECD Primary Market Procedures and Portfolio Risk Management Financial Market Trends, OECD, December World Bank, Global Economic Prospects, January 2010.
22 Thank You Please visit the Debt Management Section website at
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