EuroTier 2012 World Poultry International Market , 2012 &2022 Dr. Paul Aho - Poultry Perspective November 2012

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1 EuroTier 2012 World Poultry International Market , 2012 &2022 Dr. Paul Aho - Poultry Perspective November 2012 Storrs, Connecticut USA

2 Meat and Poultry Per Capita Consumption Increase for Every % Increase in Per Capita Real Income 1990 s - 2% 2000 s - 1% 2010 s - 0.5% Stagnant Consumption in Developed Countries & Headwinds of Higher Grain Prices 2

3 World Production of Chicken Meat

4 Population and Consumption of Meat & Eggs 6 Billion in Kg per Capita = 240 MT 7 Billion in Kg per capita = 310 MT 8 Billion in Kg per capita = 368 MT 4

5 Feed Cost Cents per Live Kilo Red Meat Chicken

6 Comparing Beef, Pork, Chicken Feed Conversion + Growth Beef in feedlot (3-1 overall) Consumption will equal income and population growth Pork Consumption will equal income and population growth Chicken Consumption will exceed income and population growth

7 16 46 Kg Consumption Per Capita in Pork Chicken Eggs Beef Source: USDA to 2012

8 1 Billion More People on the Planet in the next 10 years Meat Consumption Per Capita will grow mostly in the Developing World

9 World Map Adjusted For Meat Consumption 9

10 Middle Income - Developing World China, India, Middle East, Latin America, Eastern Europe, parts of Africa Income Elastic Engine of Growth

11 World Map Adjusted For Middle Income 11

12 Chicken Production MMT 2012 & MMT % Asia Latin Am USA EU Increase 12

13 Chicken Production MMT and Per Capita Production in Kg 2012 & MMT 2012 Production Per Capita 2022 Production Per Capita USA China Brazil EU India Russia Mexico Argentina

14 80% of Global Growth will Come From Asia, Latin America and Africa

15 45% of Global Production Growth will Come in Asia China the largest As much more poultry as pork Middle Class is growing

16 Asia Chicken Production 2012 & Millions of Tons Increase Asia Total China World Asia % of World 29% 32% 40%

17 Asia Advantages Relatively low cost of labor and capital Access to large local market Higher value of every part of the chicken Rapid gains in efficiency

18 Asia - Higher Feed Costs Based on Distance to Major Corn Producing exporters and higher cost of local production Gap decreases when grain prices are high Gap decreases with lower energy costs Cost in China Corn is $100 + per ton higher than in Chicago this year

19 China Production and Use of Corn Use Production

20 Latin America Accelerating economic growth Political stability The Golden age for Poultry Financial stability

21 Accelerating GDP Growth Decade Average GDP Growth 1980 The Lost Decade -0, , , The Latin American Decade 3,5

22 Latin America Chicken Production 2010 & Millions of Tons Increase L.A. Total Brazil World L.A. % of World 27% 28% 32%

23 Africa Also Growing Increased Grain Production Accelerating Economic Growth Accelerating Meat Production

24 Africa Chicken Production 2012 & Millions of Tons Increase Africa Total South Africa World Africa % of World 5% 6% 8%

25 What About the Short Term? Current losses in most countries World production increase near zero Consolidation increases Recovery sometime in 2013 Not robust until grain prices drop

26 Sanderson Farms Calendar Quarterly Income - Millions of Dollars

27 World Chicken Growth Rate

28 Chicken Trade A small percentage of total production Trade barriers the rule not the exception Nevertheless, total volume growing

29 World Trade in Chicken - MMT

30 Trade is a Slowly Growing % of Total World Chicken Production

31 Why Trade? Comparative Advantage Most Economic Benefits come from imports not exports Most people agree in principle 31

32 Clipper Ship Era David Ricardo and the theory of comparative advantage The repeal of the Corn laws in England Rapidly rising international trade 32

33 Trade Decline Post World War I Distrust after WWI led to protectionism Trade Protection was followed by the Great Depression 33

34 The Container Ship Age After WWII strong sentiment in favor of trade Multilateral trade agreements a period of increasing prosperity 34

35 The Internet Age Offshoring, outsourcing and insourcing Bilateral trade agreements 35

36 Who is Competitive for Chicken Exports? Grain exporters and countries with low tariff barriers on feed ingredients Countries with a good business climate Countries with low labor costs

37 What About Western Europe?

38 Challenges for Europe Stagnation of total meat consumption Competition from new poultry exporting countries Growing concerns about animal welfare, Food Safety and the Environmental Impacts of Production Systems Unpredictable policy and regulations

39 Future Scenarios for Europe from C. Jez World Poultry Science Europe open to globalization Industry remains protected by tariffs and specific health standards Address European concerns to appeal to European customers Global regulation encourages local production for food security

40 Open to Globalization Poultry Production 1.28 MMT 67% Self Sufficient Consumption of 30 Kg per year Relatively low prices Annoying dominance by American and Brazilian companies

41 Protected Industry Poultry Production MMT 102% Self Sufficient Consumption lower at 25 kg per year Relatively high prices Dominance by European firms

42 Appeal to the Concerns of Many European Customers Poultry Production lower 1.63 MMT Consumption lower at 22 kg per year Relatively high prices Dominance by European firms willing to adopt practices like a high degree of animal welfare, low pollution, decrease greenhouse emissions.

43 Global Food Regulation Higher Poultry Production 1.74 MMT Somewhat higher consumption 25 kg Relatively high prices Dominance by European producers

44 Conclusion World Poultry Production % increases slowing Most Growth in Asia, Latin America and Africa Poultry competitive with beef and pork Highest Feed Price this crop year, then falling Trade is 12% of World Production

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