The Challenge of Climate Science

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1 The Challenge of Climate Science INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy Antonio Navarra Centro EuroMediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici INGV

2 Aristotele Raffello, la Scuola di Atene!" De #"$"%&%'%()*+, Meteorologica INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy However,!"#$%$&, all the '(( mouths )*$ µ"+)*, of the Nile, "- )*$ with./($, the single #/)* exception )*$,/01($ of $23$4)/"0 that at Canopus, "- )*') are obviously ') 5'0"4+,, artificial '&$ and not "6%/"+,(7 natural. And '&)/-/3/'( Egypt was nothing '08 0") more 0')+&'(. than what 908 is :174) called #', Thebes, 0")*/01 as Homer, µ"&$ too, )*'0 shows, #*') modern /, 3'(($8 though ;*$6$,, ',!"µ$&, )"",,*"#,, he is in µ"8$&0 relation )*"+1* to such *$ changes. /, /0 &$(')/"0 )",+3* 3*'01$,. < (...)< ;*/, *'44$0$8 )" )*$ ('08 "- 9&1", '08 =73$0'$ ( ) /0 >&$$3$.?0 )*$ )/µ$ "- )*$ #'&, )*$ 9&1/%$ This happened ('08 #', to the µ'&,*7 land of Argos '08 3"+(8 and Mycenae "0(7,+44"&) in Greece. ',µ'(( In the time 4"4+(')/"0, of the Trojan #*$&$', wars the )*$ Argive ('08 land "- was =73$0'$ marshy and #', could /0 1""8 only 3"08/)/"0. support a small A+) population, 0"# )*$ "44",/)$ whereas /, the )*$ land 3',$, of Mycenae -"& )*$ was &$',"0 in good #$ condition. *'%$ µ$0)/"0$8: But now )*$ the ('08 opposite "- is =73$0'$ the case, *', for the 6$3"µ$ reason 3"µ4($)$(7 we have mentioned: 8&7 '08 the 6'&&$0, land of #*/($ Mycenae )*$ has 9&1/%$ become ('08 )*') completely #', -"&µ$&(7 dry and 6'&&$0 barren, while "#/01 the )" Argive )*$ #')$& land that *', was 0"# formerly 6$3"µ$ barren -&+/)-+(. owing."# to the )*$ water,'µ$ has 4&"3$,, now become )*') *', fruitful. )'B$0 Now 4('3$ the same /0 )*/, process,µ'(( that 8/,)&/3) has taken µ+,) place 6$ in,+44",$8 this small district )" 6$ 1"/01 must be "0 supposed "%$& #*"($ to be going on 3"+0)&/$, over whole '08 countries "0 ' ('&1$ and on,3'($.< a large scale. (...)< C" /) /, 3($'&,,/03$ )*$&$ #/(( 6$ 0" $08 )" )/µ$ ( ) '08 )*$ #"&(8 /, $)$&0'(, )*') 0$/)*$& )*$ ;'0'/, So it is clear, 0"& )*$ since./($ there *', will '(#'7, be no end 6$$0 to time -("#/01, and the 6+) world )*') is )*$ eternal, &$1/"0 that #*$03$ neither the )*$7 Tanais -("# nor #', the Nile "03$ has 8&7: always -"& )*$/& been flowing, $--$3) µ'7 but that 6$ -+(-/(($8, the region whence 6+) )/µ$ they 3'00"). flow was 908 once )*/, dry: #/(( for their 6$ $D+'((7 effect may )&+$ be fulfilled, "- '(( but ")*$& time &/%$&,. cannot. And A+) this /- &/%$&, will be equally 3"µ$ /0)" true $2/,)$03$ of all other '08 rivers. 4$&/,* But if '08 rivers )*$ come,'µ$ into 4'&), existence "- )*$ and $'&)* perish and #$&$ the 0") same '(#'7, parts of µ"/,), the earth )*$ were,$' not µ+,) always 0$$8, moist, 3*'01$ the sea 3"&&$,4"08/01(7. must needs change 908 correspondingly. /- )*$,$' /, And '(#'7, if the sea '8%'03/01 is always advancing /0 "0$ 4('3$ in one '08 place &$3$8/01 and receding /0 '0")*$& in another /) /, 3($'& it is clear )*') that )*$ the,'µ$ same parts 4'&), of "- the )*$ whole #*"($ earth $'&)* '&$ 0") are not '(#'7, always $/)*$& either sea,$' or "& land, ('08, but 6+) that )*') all this '(( changes )*/, 3*'01$, in course of /0 time. 3"+&,$ "- )/µ$.<

3 T.S. Eliot INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy The Waste Land I. The Burial of the Dead April is the cruelest month, breeding Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing Memory and desire, stirring Dull roots with spring rain. Winter kept us warm, covering Earth in forgetful snow, feeding A little life with dried tubers. Summer surprised us, coming over the Starnbergersee With a shower of rain; we stopped in the colonnade, we went.

4 Il Sistema Clima Atmosfera Evaporazione Precipitazioni Ghiaccio Marino Oceani BIOSFERA Fiumi Umidita del Suolo

5 The Climate Machine Solar Radiation Earth Radiation

6 Carbon dioxide INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy Valori massimi di anidride carbonica

7 Afro-Indian Sector: Mid-latitude Regimes Indian Monsoon INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy Sahel Region Planetary waves and Westerlies Summer Indian Monsoon InterTropical Convergence Zone

8 The challenge of climate change Strongly science-based problem. A special responsibility for scientists to provide honest, accurate, sound science Global scope and complex interactions

9 A scientific consideration of climate (I) INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy Crucial experiments like the famous experiment of Michelson e Morley are not possible in climate science How is it possible a scientific investigation of climate?

10 A scientific consideration of climate (II) We can male experiments if we represent the climate system via a set of mathematical relations: the equation of climate. INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy The equation of climate are very difficult, but they can be solved by numerical methods. We can then treat very complex mathematical equations, paying the price of a enormous number of elementary operations.

11 Le Equazioni di Navier-Stokes

12 The next generation of numerical models will be like INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy new, more powerful, telescopes or particle accelerators and they will allow us to look further into the working of the Earth climate more accurately, extensively and reliably.

13 INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy

14 The Structure of the CMCC Numerical Methods Climate Research Software Development INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy Agricultural Impacts: Forests Agricultural Impacts: Crops Impacts: Mediterranean Sea Numerical Simulations Impacts: The Coastal Zone Impacts: Energy and Economy Impacts: Health

15 LAN 1 Gbit/s NEC Vector/Parallel Supercomputer 4 SX-8R + 5 SX cpu. 3 TBytes RAM 11,2 TFlops Scalar/Parallel Supercomputer IBM Sp6 ~ 1000 cpu 3,2 TBytes RAM 18 TFlops Storage Area Network 12 Gbit/s aggregated Archive/Backup HA Cluster Server Disk Storage ~ 500 TBytes Tape Library 1800 Mbytes/sec 3 PBytes

16 CMCC Centro EuroMediterraneo per i Combiamenti Climatici IPCC standard resolution (T63) INGV-IPCC runs T106 resolution

17 T106 INGV-IPCC run resolution (~ 120Km) Next INGV-CMCC model resolution (~ 60Km)

18 THE SCENARIO SIMULATIONS INGV(CMCC) SXG IPCC Experiments: 1pccto4x [150y] CO 2 1pccto2x [150y] picntrl [100y] c3m [130y] sres a1b [100y] sres a2 TOT: [100y] [730y]

19 THE SCENARIO SIMULATIONS global mean surface temperature anomaly

20 SCENARIO: A2 20C precipitation A2( ) 20C( ) JFM A2( ) 20C( ) JFM INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy A2( ) 20C( ) JAS A2( ) 20C( ) JAS mm/day

21 SCENARIO: A2 20C 2m-Temperature A2( ) 20C( ) JFM A2( ) 20C( ) JFM INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy A2( ) 20C( ) JAS A2( ) 20C( ) JAS C

22

23 Il modello ad alta risoluzione permette anche di esplorare la frequenza, intensita e dislocazione degli uragani tropicali.

24 TCs Number in ingv-sxg 1-2-4xCO2 exp. pre-ind ingv-sxg [30y] 2xCO2 ingv-sxg [30y] 4xCO2 ingv-sxg [30y]

25 CIRCE Climate Change and Impact ResearCh: the Mediterranean Environment An FP6 Project of the European Union INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy Chair: Antonio Navarra and Laurence Tubiana

26 The project will investigate how global and Mediterranean climates interact, how the radiative properties of the atmosphere and the radiative fluxes vary, the interaction between cloudiness and aerosol, the modifications in the water cycle. The economic and social consequences of climate change shall be evaluated by analyzing direct impacts on migration, tourism and energy markets together with indirect impacts on the economic system. CIRCE will moreover investigate the consequences on agriculture, forests and ecosystems, human health and air quality. The variability of extreme events in the future scenario and their impacts will be assessed. The integrated results discussed by the project CIRCE will be presented in the first Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean area.

27 CIRCE Strategy Climate Dynamics Impacts Policy Social Dynamics Case Studies

28 What can we do? Mitigation: remove the causes of climate change, i.e. emissions Adaptation: prepare for the coming climate change

29 Mitigazione e Adattamento, Entrambi necessari, Entrambi limitati Mucche olandesi, dopo l adattamento

30

31 Mitigazione e Adattamento, Entrambi necessari, INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy Entrambi limitati

32 Elements for Post-Kyoto Regime Effective Capable of realizing significant emission reduction Empowering Allowing emerging countries to continue their development path Fair Recognizing the historical responsibility of mature economies Shared A large societal consensus is needed to implement effectively the policies

33 Coalition Building

34 General Social Survey USA (I) INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy! 86% - Satisfied of their job! 76% - Satisfied of their income! 62% - Expect their position to improve within the next three years! 65% - Over all satisfied of their lives

35 General Social Survey USA (II) INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy! 25% - Think the country is not on the right track! 80% - Think the Congress has accomplished nothing! 60% - Expect next generation will be worst off

36 Happiness Gap INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy US citizens ( probably typical of other countries) are happy with their lives, but they feel the threat of outside forces beyond their control (climate change, terrorism, credit crisis) and they are doubt of the government capability to handle them effectively There is a private-public happiness gap

37 Policy? INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy In this situation the demand on policymakers is to devise a policy to tackle with determination these large problems, but without touching the sphere of private satisfaction of the individual. Is it possible to define a policy addressing these demands?

38 Ottimisti INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy ma preoccupati

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