Enhancing Societal Resilience and the Role of Insurance

Transcription

1 The World Bank Disaster Risk Management Public Seminar Enhancing Societal Resilience and the Role of Insurance 27 June, 2016 Masaaki Nagamura Division Head, Corporate Social Responsibility Corporate Planning Dept. Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc.

2 Talking Points 1.Geological risks and insurance 2.Hydrometeorological risks and insurance 3.Risk research on climate risks 4.Risk research on earthquake-induced tsunami risks 5.Disaster risk awareness raising 6.Ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction 7.COP21and the Paris Agreement 8.Promoting disaster risk financing and insurance 2

3 Geological risks and insurance Kumamoto Earthquakes Date of occurrence: April, 2016 Significance: M7.3 (tentative) Maximum seismic intensity: 7 Fatalities: 69 Injuries: over 1,700 Total collapse: over 7,800 structures Half/partial structural loss: over 138,000 structures Injuries and structural losses data: Kumamoto Prefecture, as of 22 June, 2016 Reported claims: 239,749 cases Settled claims: 222,981 cases (93% of reported cases) Settled amount: \317 billion (US$3.0 billion) Mashiki-machi, Kumamoto Prefecture (TRC) Insurance loss data: General Insurance Association of Japan, as of 20 June,

4 Hydrometeorological risks and insurance Typhoon Goni (No.15, 2015) Date of occurrence: August, 2015 Maximum wind gust speed: 71.0 m/s (Ishigaki Island) Rain: Excess of 80 mm/h (Mie Prefecture) Fatality: 1, Injuries: 134 Total collapse: 10 residential structures Half/partial structural loss: over 2,300 structures Injuries and structural losses data: Fire and Disaster Management Agency Insured losses: \164 billion (US$ 1.6 billion) Insurance loss data: General Insurance Association of Japan (Typhoon simulation images, The Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center at Nagoya University) 4

5 Risk research on climate risks Forecasting future changes in typhoons using climate model data ~ ~ ~ 2035 Genesis Track Central Pressure 発 生 場 所 経 路 強 度 ( 平 均 中 心 気 圧 ) Estimates based on the typhoon probability model jointly developed with the University of Tokyo. Central atmospheric pressure will decrease. (become stronger) 温 暖 化 差 分 3 ー 1 Change Genesis and tracks will shift eastward. 5 (Tokio Marine Research Institute)

6 Risk research on earthquake-induced tsunami risks Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) Logic tree 3.11 Tohoku earthquake Type Range of moment magnitude Mw=8.9 Mw=9.0 Mw=9.1 Position of Asperity North mid Center mid α Value for BPT distribution α=0.2 α=0.3 α=0.4 Average return period 450 year 600 year 810 year Log normal standard deviation (Aleatory uncertainty) κ= 0.22 κ= 0.30 κ= 0.37 Truncated range of uncertainty ±2.3σ ±10σ South κ= 0.44 Consideration of all possible earthquake magnitudes, return periods, large slip areas and other uncertainties Underestimation of the inundation area Observed waveform of the 2011 tsunami at Kamaishi GPS station 6.7m Annual Exceedance probability (times/year) 450 Years 12,000 Years 6.7m 1,000 Years 3.8 m 18.0 m 6 Maximum tsunami height(m) (Tohoku University IRIDeS) Maximum tsunami height(m)

7 Disaster risk awareness raising Disaster Education Classes Since: 2012 Number of schools visited: 210 Number of attendees: 16,300 (cumulative up to March 2016) Focus on local natural hazards, such as earthquake, tsunami, flood, landslide Disaster Education Website Since: 2013 Basic knowledge on earthquake, tsunami, typhoon, tornado, torrential rain Disaster preparedness Tips to reduce disaster impacts 7

8 Ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Ecosystem-based DRR Indian Ocean Tsunami, December 2004 Land protected by mangroves Unprotected neighboring village 8

9 COP21 and the Paris Agreement Direct reference to insurance areas of cooperation and facilitation to enhance understanding, action and support may include; (f) Risk insurance facilities, climate risk pooling and other insurance solutions; (Paris Agreement Article 8-4) the Warsaw International Mechanism to establish a clearinghouse for risk transfer that serves as a repository for information on insurance and risk transfer, in order to facilitate the efforts of Parties to develop and implement comprehensive risk management strategies: (COP Decisions para. 49) 9

10 Promoting disaster risk financing and insurance APEC Finance Ministers Process and the Cebu Action Plan (CAP) CAP Deliverables APFF s Activities in 2016 Establish and promote private disaster insurance schemes Deepen insurance penetration within their economies and develop regional risk sharing measures Develop a roadmap and network of experts through the support of APFF* for expanding the coverage of microinsurance and disaster risk finance in member economies APEC disaster risk database ADB & OECD report on public finance frameworks *APFF (Asia-Pacific Financial Forum): A platform for publicprivate collaboration to develop robust and integrated financial markets in the APEC region. Formalize APFF s DRFI Sub-stream expert group Setting up opportunities for dialogue with APEC finance ministry officials (DRFI Workshop in Lima, Feb. 2016) Identify economies and risks of priority Create a framework for disaster risk database Work with relevant international organizations to promote studies and reports 10