2014 Energy & Commodities Conference

Transcription

1 Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft LLP Energy & Commodities Conference October 8, 2014

2 Electric Market Update: FERC and CFE

3 Panelists Moderators: Ken Irvin and Terence Healey, Cadwalader Jette Gebhart, Senior Policy Advisor to FERC Chair Cheryl LaFleur, FERC Eugenio Herrera, Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft LLP 3

4 Introducing Jette Gebhart, Senior Policy Advisor to Chairman Cheryl LaFleur

5 Cove Point LNG Export Authorization Fourth LNG Export Approval Granted by FERC. Permits export from Cove Point terminal in Maryland of up to 5.75 metric tons of LNG/year. Targeted completion of Maryland Liquefaction facilities: June Construction of related Virginia facilities targeted to begin in 2016 and enter service by March Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft LLP 5

6 Contention Over Cove Point During 2-year approval process, FERC heard from 140 speakers at 3 public meetings related to Environmental Assessment. Received > 650 comments from the public and federal and state local agencies on the application. July 14, 2014 protesters hauled off in handcuffs. Balance of Environmental and Economic. LNG price in Japan 3-4x U.S. Price Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft LLP 6

7 Evolving Capacity Markets LaFleur said capacity markets also need to evolve and suggested that need has become more apparent given the changes occurring in the power industry, including in the generation resource mix in response to the growth of natural gas and renewable generation, new environmental regulations and other factors. Boshart, Glen, FERC s LaFleur details possible need for capacity markets, enforcement process to evolve (SNL, Aug. 12, 2014) (paraphrasing Chairman LaFleur) Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft LLP 7

8 New England Capacity Markets The ISO-New England (ISO-NE) Forward Capacity Market (FCM) plays a vital role in ensuring reliability in New England. The FCM auction (the Forward Capacity Auction or FCA) is the mechanism that ensures future system reliability by procuring capacity resources sufficient to meet New England s resource adequacy needs.... This is especially important in light of the current capacity situation in New England, where for the first time the region is facing an overall capacity shortage and the FCM must procure new resources in order to satisfy New England s reliability needs. Statement of Chairman Cheryl A. LaFleur, ER (Sept. 16, 2014). Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft LLP 8

9 Coordination Between Gas and Electric Questions related to gas/electric interdependency highlight one of the central issues we face as federal regulators whether to encourage regional solutions, or act to promote national solutions. We learned in the comments and in the technical conferences that certain gas/electric issues varied sharply by region, while others were more national. Thus, both regional and national actions are called for. Statement of Commissioner Cheryl A. LaFleur, AD12-12 (Nov. 15, 2012) Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft LLP 9

10 Heavy Investment in Natural Gas Half of power plant capacity additions in 2013 came from natural gas, U.S. Energy Information System (April 8, 2014), available at Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft LLP 10

11 Changes to Enforcement Policy? LaFleur said she is open to considering possible reforms to the agency's enforcement processes.... LaFleur also acknowledged that enforcement is a relatively new area of FERC's work. As such, a lot of things are cases of first impression, things are happening for the first time, and it's normal that there would be debate about it. Boshart, Glen, FERC s LaFleur details possible need for capacity markets, enforcement process to evolve (SNL, Aug. 12, 2014) (paraphrasing Chairman LaFleur) Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft LLP 11

12 CFE s Natural Gas Transportation Strategy & the Energy Reform Eugenio Herrera Legal Adviser, CFE. eugenio.herrera@cfe.gob.mx October 8th, 2014.

13 T a b l e o f C o n t e n t s 1. Mexico s Energy Reform and the CFE 2. Mexico s Natural Gas Transportation System (Plan 2028) 3. Pipeline Biddings in the U.S. (Waha, TX.)

14 1. Mexico s Energy Reform and the CFE The new law forces the monopoly to reorganize itself horizontally and not vertically. Private firms will be able to participate in the power generationstrengthening the competitiveness of the market. An independent power system operator is created (CENACE) and placed outside of CFE. An independent natural gas pipeline system operator is created (CENAGAS) and placed outside of CFE. A new power and fuel market will flourish upon the mid-term. 14

15 The Energy Reform establishes a new power industry structure with multiple generators, as well as open access and a more efficient operation of the transmission and distribution networks Generation Entry barriers are eliminated and competition is enhanced, among public and private generators. Power Dispatch and System Control The National Center of Energy Control (CENACE) is established as an independent system operator, also in charge of managing the spot market. Commercialization Qualified users will be able to freely agree on prices with generators through bilateral contracts. The Finance Ministry will set rates for standard users and the CFE will provide the service. Cogeneration Independent Power Producers contracted by CFE Independent System Operator Qualified users Standard users Private generators Transmission Distribution CFE will be able to contract private companies to finance, operate, build and maintain the transmission and distribution networks. Source: Electric Industry Law Iniciative, 2014.

16 80% of the cost of electricity is determined by the price of the fuels used to generate it Fuel participation as a percentage of total installed capacity (in megawatts) 2 % 4 % 7% 27 % 33 % 27 % Nuclear Geothermal Coal Hydropower Fuel Oil Natural Gas Wind 1% 2% 3% 4% 20% 21% 47% Note: The graph shows the percentage of all fuels used to generate electricity in Mexico by year. This estimate is calculated in Megawatts and is based on the installed capacity of each source. In 1999 and 2013, other fuels employed in generation processes represented 0.3% and 1% of total installed capacity, respectively.

17 2. Mexico s Natural Gas Transportation System (Plan 2028) All natural gas projects of CFE are designed as long-term transportation projects: To expand and reinforce Mexico s natural gas pipeline network utilized for generation of electric power and industrial usage. To improve Mexico s natural gas supply chain. To offer all Mexican end users a wider range of opportunities to meet their natural gas consumption needs at competitive prices. 17

18 Mexico s average electricity rate is 25% higher than that of the U.S Without taking into account subsidies, Mexico s average electricity rate was 73% higher than that of the U.S. in 2012 U.S Mexico Subsidies +149% +135% +69% +84% +73% +25% High Consumption Households Commercial Public Services Industrial Average Rate without Subsidies

19 2. Mexico s Natural Gas Transportation System (Plan 2028) Announcements 2014 Announcements CFE Sásabe San Elizario/ San Isidro Samalayuca Waha Pemex National Pipeline System (±6,751 mi.) Presidio / Ojinaga El Encino Colombia La Laguna Escobedo LNG Terminals Compression Stations Pipeline Diameter Capacity Distance (MMCFD) ( ± mi. ) Waha San Elizario 42 1, San Isidro - Samalayuca 42 /30 1,450/ Waha - Presidio 42 1, Ojinaga El Encino 42 1, El Encino La Laguna 42 1, TOTAL: 728

20 2. Mexico s Natural Gas Transportation System (Plan 2028) Pipeline scenario with new power plants due 2028 Baja California II & BajaCalifornia V Naco Sásabe San Elizario/ San Isidro Aguaprieta Samalayuca Norte III Waha New Combined Cycle Power Plants New Power Plants at Baja California & Yucatán Clusters and Repowering are not included TOTAL Additional CC MW: 23,695 New Power Plants Non Central México Guaymas II & Guaymas III Cap. (MW) Puerto Aguaprieta II Libertad Guaymas Topolobampo COD Norte III 954 Jul 2017 Guaymas II 735 Apr 2017 Guaymas III 735 Jul 2017 Baja California II (SLRC) 276 Jul 2017 Noreste (Escobedo) 1,034 Dec 2017 Lerdo (Norte IV) 990 Apr 2018 Noroeste (Topolobampo II) 847 Apr 2018 Topolobampo III 700 May 2018 Guadalajara I 908 Apr 2019 San Luis Potosí 862 Apr 2019 Mazatlán 867 Apr 2020 Baja California V (SLRC) 522 Apr 2020 Aguascalientes 872 Apr 2020 Francisco Villa (Norte V) 958 Apr 2021 Monterrey IV 1,088 Apr 2022 Salamanca 680 Apr 2022 Salamanca II 680 Apr 2023 Chihuahua Sur (Norte VI) 958 Apr 2024 San Luis Potosí II 862 Jun 2024 Tamazunchale II 1,121 Jul 2025 Tamazunchale III 1,121 Apr 2026 Aguascalientes II 872 Jul 2027 Norte VII 867 Jun 2028 TOTAL MW: 19,509 Mazatlán Norte VI & Norte VII Noroeste & Topolobampo III Mazatlàn El Encino La Laguna Presidio / Ojinaga Colombia Francisco Villa Noreste & Monterrey IV Escobedo Lerdo San Luis Potosí & San Luis Potosí II Aguascalientes Tamazunchale Guadalajara El Sauz Guadalajara I Salamanca & Salamanca II Manzanillo Cuautla Reynosa Tamazunchale II & Tamazunchale III Nueces Aguadulce Naranjos Tlaxcala New Power Plants Central México Cap. (MW) COD Valle de México II 601 May 2017 Centro II 660 Sep 2019 Central (Tula) 1,162 Apr 2021 Valle de México III 601 Apr 2023 Central II (Tula) 1,162 Apr 2024 TOTAL MW: 4,186

21 3. Pipeline Biddings in the U.S. (Waha, TX.) As a result of the Energy Reform, and the competitiveness that the market will require for power generation, CFE requires natural gas transportation systems with reliable and diversified sources of supply. Today, Mexico s natural gas supply is concentrated in the Northeastern-Gulf side of the country, which brings limited flexibility and supply options. The development of alternate routes along the border between the U.S. and Mexico will strengthen market capabilities and will help to improve operational margins. 21

22 3. Pipeline Biddings in the U.S. (Waha, TX.) Waha Presidio (RFP SEPT- 2014) Development, construction and operation of a pipeline with capacity of Bcf/d from CFE Waha Header to United States Border with Mexico near Presidio, Texas. Border crossing and permits to interconnect with a future pipeline that runs from Ojinaga to El Encino both located in the State of Chihuahua, Mexico. Minimum pressure of delivery at the international border at 1,160 psig. C.O.D. : March 2017 Diameter: 42 Capacity (MMCFD): 1,350 Length (approx) : 145 Miles MAOP (psig): 1, year TSA. Fiber optic lines that will service the telecommunication needs of the pipeline, which will run parallel to it. Design, development, construction and operation of the Fiber Optic Lines must be included in the tariff of the TSA. RFP final stage schedule Submission of final proposals (Houston, Texas, exact location TBD) November 14, 2014 Announcement of winning bidder (Houston, Texas, exact location December 5, 2014 TBD) Execution of TSA (Mexico City, Mexico, exact location TBD) January 16, 2015 Due (All dates and requirements may change subject to the final specifications of the corresponding RFP.) 22

23 3. Pipeline Biddings in the U.S. (Waha, TX.) Waha San Elizario Development, construction and operation of a Header CFE Waha Header for Bcf/d, with at least 10 interconnects to existing pipelines near the Waha Hub area that supply at least 130% of the maximum aggregated capacity of these pipelines (130%*2.825 Bcf/d). Development, construction and operation of a pipeline with capacity of Bcf/d from CFE Waha Header to United States Border with Mexico near San Elizario, Texas. C.O.D. : January 2017 Diameter: 42 Capacity (MMCFD): 1,475 Length (approx) : 225 Miles MAOP (psig): 1,440 Border crossing and permits to interconnect with a future pipeline that runs from San Isidro to Samalayuca, both located in the State of Chihuahua, Mexico. Minimum pressure of delivery at the international border at 1,145 psig. 25-year Transportation Service Agreement ( TSA ). Fiber optic lines that will service the telecommunication needs of the pipeline, which will run parallel to it. Design, development, construction and operation of the Fiber Optic Lines must be included in the tariff of the TSA. RFP final stage schedule Submission of final proposals (Houston, Texas, exact location TBD) November 14, 2014 Announcement of winning bidder (Houston, Texas, exact location December 5, 2014 TBD) Execution of TSA (Mexico City, Mexico, exact location TBD) January 16, 2015 Due (All dates and requirements may change subject to the final specifications of the corresponding RFP.) 23

24 Mexico has a high potential for generating electricity by harnessing the power of the water, the sun, the wind and the earth s vapor Towards the year 2020, Mexico will have a renewable capacity potential of 57,000 Megawatts (MW), of which 20,000 MW will be market competitive. Mexico must take advantage of its great renewable potential in order to reach the national goal of generating at least 35% of its electrical power, from clean sources of energy, by the year Source: Undersecretariat of Planning and Energy Transition. Energy Department and the General Law fo Climate Change 2013.

25 1 The Energy Reform promotes the adoption of cleaner energies and protects the environment With the new electric model, different enterprises can invest and establish asociations towards the expansion and diversification of Mexico s generation capacity. Moreover, the transmission network will have to increase, so that more clean energy can have access to the country s national electric system. 1 2 New laws will make investment in clean and renewable power plants, easier and more transparent. 2 3 The Energy Department will publish a national strategy to promote the use of cleaner tecnologies and fuels, with special emphasis in renewable energies and natural gas. 3 4 The Energy Reform also establishes energy efficiency criteria, clean energy obligations, and emissions reductions for all electric industry participants. 4

26 The Cooperation Agreement between Mexican Transparency and the Federal Electricity Commission, will promote transparency and accountability On April 30th, 2014, the Federal Electricity Commission and the non government organization Mexican Tranparency (Transparencia Mexicana) signed a Cooperation Agreement. Through it, Mexican Transparency will act as social witness or independent observer to the Commission s bidding processes, in order to insure transparency and accountability. Fuente:Unidad de Promoción de Inversiones, Comisión Federal de Electricidad,

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