City of Victoria Community Energy and Emissions Plan

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1 City of Victoria Community Energy and Emissions Plan FINAL REPORT 31 May 2012 Prepared for: Allison Ashcroft, City of Victoria Prepared by: Nicole Miller Duncan Cavens

2 Table of Contents Table of Contents... 2 List of Tables... 5 List of Figures... 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CITY OF VICTORIA LAND USE AND ENERGY CONTEXT Introduction Managing constraints Supporting initiatives and policy Planned Community Growth Local Energy Demand and Supply Current energy demand and CEEI baseline Local energy supply potential Baseline and BAU Scenario COMMUNITY ENERGY AND EMISSIONS PLAN METHODOLOGY Overview The Climate Action Navigator Tool CAN tool outputs Stakeholder Engagement Workshops VISION, GOALS AND TARGETS Vision and Goals Energy and Emissions Targets CLIMATE ACTION STRATEGIES Overview Summary of estimated energy and emission savings and cost Emissions reductions and electricity consumption Land Use Building Retrofits Overview Selected Targets Strategy Evaluation New construction Overview Selected targets

3 4.5.3 Strategy evaluation District Energy Overview District energy distribution system District energy supply Renewable electricity generation Selected targets Strategy evaluation Transportation Overview Transportation demand management Transit system improvements Additional travel behaviour changes Vehicle electrification Selected targets Strategy evaluation Waste Overview Waste diversion Selected targets Strategy evaluation Offsets Overview Urban forestry Offset purchases Selected targets RECOMMENDATIONS Target refinements Additional analysis Recommended policies and actions Building retrofit actions New construction actions District energy actions Transportation actions Solid waste actions

4 5.2.6 Offset actions IMPLEMENTATION Adoption of plan Prioritized strategies and actions Roles, responsibilities and resources Partnerships and engagement Progress reporting APPENDIX A: Results from CAN stakeholder workshops APPENDIX B: CAN tool modeling methods APPENDIX C: BC Hydro s Structured Decision Making (SDM) Framework APPENDIX D: CEEP scope of work / proposal 4

5 List of Tables Table 1: Population and Housing Projections Table 2: Estimated quantities of local energy available for district energy applications Table 3: 2007 Baseline and BAU scenario energy and emissions Table 4: CEEP Project Objectives Table 5: List of strategies and key CAN model variables Table 6: Energy and emissions reductions for 2020 and 2041, low range Table 7: Energy and emissions reductions for 2020 and 2041, high range Table 8: Comparison of 2007, BAU and CEEP energy consumption, including electricity Table 9: Comparison of 2007, BAU and CEEP emissions, including electricity Table 10: Building retrofit targets Table 11: Estimated changes in energy consumption, building retrofit strategies Table 12: Estimated changes in GHG emissions, building retrofit strategies Table 13: Building retrofit emission reductions and costs per tonne reduced GHG Table 14: Building new construction targets Table 15: Estimated changes in energy consumption, building new construction strategies Table 16: Estimated changes in GHG emissions, building new construction strategies Table 17: Building new construction emission reductions and costs per tonne reduced GHG Table 18: District energy targets Table 19: Estimated changes in energy consumption, district energy strategies Table 20: Estimated changes in GHG emissions, district energy strategies Table 21: District energy emission reductions and costs per tonne reduced GHG Table 22: Transportation targets Table 23: Estimated changes in energy consumption, transportation strategies Table 24: Estimated changes in GHG emissions, transportation strategies Table 25: Transportation emission reductions and costs per tonne reduced GHG Table 26: Waste diversion targets Table 27: Estimated changes in GHG emissions, waste diversion strategies Table 28: Waste emission reductions and costs per tonne reduced GHG Table 29: Potential 2020 impact-based targets Table 30: Potential 2041 impact-based targets Table 31: Prioritized strategies and actions Table 32: Recommended energy and GHG emission reduction strategies and actions, by City role

6 List of Figures Figure 1: The role of local government in climate action Figure 2: OCP urban place designations Figure 3: Victoria 2007 energy and emissions Figure 4: Total estimated building energy use Figure 5: Comparison of Victoria per capita emissions and city benchmarks Figure 6: Potential local energy sources Figure 7: The CAN tool interface Figure 8: CAN tool workshops Figure 9: Emission reductions by strategy, low range Figure 10: Emission reductions by strategy, high range Figure 11: Comparison of emission reductions and cost per tonne by strategy, low range Figure 12: Comparison of emission reductions and cost per tonne by strategy, high range

7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In May 2010, the City of Victoria enshrined in bylaw its commitment to reduce community greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) by at least 33 percent below 2007 levels by 2020, a bold and aspirational target. To assist in meeting Victoria s target, the City has undertaken the development of a Community Energy and Emissions Plan (CEEP) using an innovative process. To achieve significant energy and emission reductions, Victoria must work within two primary constraints. First, local governments have a limited sphere of influence on energy consumption and GHG emissions in their communities. Second, local government resources both financial and human are limited (Section 1.1.1). These constraints, paired with the intensity of reductions required to meet established targets, demand that the resources invested in reducing community energy and GHG emissions be carefully directed and managed to maximize results. To support an actionable plan, the CEEP process has considered the following: Quantitative evaluation the CEEP process includes the quantitative evaluation of energy, emissions and associated costs to inform recommendations and priorities that are reflective of required financial and other City resources Stakeholder input the CEEP process brought together a variety of stakeholders, climate professionals and industry experts to develop the plan, to provide feedback and to develop key partnerships and collective commitment through early collaboration Identification of City roles and potential partnerships the CEEP process identifies the City s potential role and level of influence for each recommended action (i.e. control, influence, encourage) as well as potential partners to determine where resources outside of local government can be best leveraged (e.g. non-profit partnerships, CRD collaboration, consultation with utilities and property owners, etc.) Analysis for the City of Victoria CEEP was conducted using a new energy and emissions assessment tool, the Climate Action Navigator (CAN) (Section 2.2). This tool was used in facilitated workshops (Section 2.3) with City staff, invited climate professionals and industry experts to explore potential community energy reduction and emission mitigation strategies and to develop specific, measurable targets and actions as inputs to the final CEEP document. Using a structured decision making (SDM) approach (Appendix C), each strategy included in the CEEP has been evaluated against a series of objectives (Section 2.1) and associated quantitative and qualitative measures for the plan s three time horizons: 2020, 2041 and 2080 (Section 4). Quantitative measures (energy consumption, GHG emissions and cost) were analysed within the CAN tool. Qualitative measures were assessed first by participants in the CAN workshops, and subsequently by the CEEP project team. The following sections describe each of the strategies considered, and report on the findings made and discussions had by staff and stakeholders during the CAN workshops and through the course of the CEEP process. Low and high feasible targets specific to each strategy have been established based on the expertise of local and technical experts present at the workshops (Section 4). As presented at the beginning of Section 4, the project team took the low and high ranges of targets set by stakeholders for each strategy and used the CAN tool to model low and high future energy and 7

8 emission reduction scenarios for the City, to see what total reductions could be achieved. Using the low range of targets, total community emissions for the City are estimated to be reduced 14% by 2020 and 29% by 2041 (Figure 9). Using the high range of targets, total community emissions are estimated to be reduced 34% by 2020 and 49% by 2041 (Figure 10) from 2007 levels, exceeding the City s established 2020 target by 1%. For both the low and high range of targets set by stakeholders, a number of strategies have the potential to be achieved with little, no or even negative net costs (capital, fuel and operating expenses). However, many of these same strategies are not able to achieve a high level of emissions reductions (e.g. new construction). Nor may the City have much control over implementing actions in some of these areas. Taking these tradeoffs into consideration, some of the most promising strategies include new construction, building retrofits, and supporting shifts in transportation behaviour. As these strategies can provide significant savings in energy costs, they have the potential to have very low, or even positive, net costs over a 30 year horizon; however, they may be difficult to achieve in practice, particularly behavioural change. Given the predicted magnitude of the GHG reduction of each strategy, it is clear that Victoria will need to choose a range of strategies to reach its GHG reduction goals. These results are both encouraging and challenging. It is encouraging that local and technical experts were able to chart a path for energy and emissions reductions that could meet and even exceed the City s 2020 target. However, the City s target of 33% is on the high end of what stakeholders felt could be achieved. The challenge for the City, then, is to develop a course of implementation, beginning with this report, which strives to maximize gains from each strategy in innovative and engaging ways. The City s OCP and sustainability policies provide a sound framework for this to happen, but much action is still required. Due to the City s limited spheres of influence and limited financial and human resources, partnerships and engagement are critical aspects of CEEP implementation. Achieving the targets established in this report require that the City identify where resources outside of local government can best be leveraged, including provincial, regional (CRD), private, non-profit and utility partnerships. Partnerships such as these bring together the individuals and organizations best equipped or authorized to implement specific energy and emission reduction strategies. The following three pages summarize in graphic and tabular format the targets, strategies and actions developed for energy and GHG emissions reductions in the City (see Section 5 for more detail), as well as the low and high emissions reductions possible with the targets established by project stakeholders. 8

9 Recommended energy and GHG emission reduction strategies and actions, by City role (control, influence, encourage 1 ) Control Influence Encourage Develop innovative financing opportunities Develop programs and incentives Increase the use of high-efficiency systems Use market mechanisms as a tool to increase energy efficiency in existing buildings Building Retrofits (section 5.2.1) Increase awareness and knowledge Advance the energy efficiency reqirements of the BC building code Develop policies and incentives Increase the use of high-efficiency and DE ready systems Use market mechanisms as a tool to increase energy efficiency in new construction New Construction (section 5.2.2) Increase awareness and knowledge Use land use planning as a tool to increase opportunities for district energy Develop policies and incentives Increase the use of renewable energy sources District Energy (section 5.2.3) Increase awareness and knowledge Develop key partnerships Use land use planning as a tool to increase opportunities for alternative transportation Make pedestrian and cycling infrastructure a top priority Develop programs and incentives Use parking provisions and policies as tools to support alternative transportation Transportation (section 5.2.4) Increase the use of electric vehicles Develop key partnerships Develop programs and incentives Develop key partnerships Waste (section 5.2.5) 1 See section for more information on these roles. 9

10 Emission reductions by strategy, low range Energy (GJ) GHG (t) Energy (GJ) GHG (t) Cost ($/t) Business as Usual 9,624, ,362 10,401, ,770 $0 From BAU: decr/(incr) % decr/(incr) % decr/(incr) % decr/(incr) % avg Buildings Building Retrofits 348,997-4% 15,118-4% 1,038,136-10% 41,190-10% $2 New Construction 121,658-1% 9,778-2% 572,807-6% 38,838-9% ($17) District Energy 132,877-1% 6,455-2% (253,820) 2% 14,637-3% $27 Reductions Subtotal 603,532 31,351 1,357,123 94,665 ($1) Reduction from BAU -6% -7% -13% -23% Reduction from % 1% 0% -4% Transportation TDM 314,508-3% 21,498-5% 361,712-3% 24,725-6% $124 Transit Improvements 52,418-1% 3,583-1% 60,285-1% 4,121-1% $567 Behaviour Change 249,609-3% 17,062-4% 574,146-6% 39,246-9% $0 Vehicle Electrification 76,880-1% 6,981-2% 176,838-2% 16,056-4% $15 Reductions Subtotal 693,415 49,124 1,172,981 84,148 $62 Reduction from BAU -7% -12% -11% -20% Reduction from % -3% 2% -1% Waste Waste Diversion ,580-2% ,860-3% $1 TOTALS TOTAL reductions 1,296,947 90,055 2,530, ,673 $28 Reduction from % -14% -13% -29% Reduction from BAU -13% -21% -24% -41% Data may not sum to total due to rounding. 10

11 Emission reductions by strategy, high range Energy (GJ) GHG (t) Energy (GJ) GHG (t) Cost ($/t) Business as Usual 9,624, ,362 10,401, ,770 $0 From BAU: decr/(incr) % decr/(incr) % decr/(incr) % decr/(incr) % avg Buildings Building Retrofits 721,145-7% 31,345-7% 1,164,928-11% 50,707-12% $4 New Construction 226,586-2% 13,331-3% 1,240,920-12% 61,896-15% ($10) District Energy 267,599-3% 8,665-2% (13,908) 0% 25,119-6% $22 Reductions Subtotal 1,215,330 53,341 2,391, ,722 $2 Reduction from BAU -13% -13% -23% -33% Reduction from % -4% -12% -15% Transportation TDM 314,508-3% 21,498-5% 361,712-3% 24,725-6% $124 Transit Improvements 209,672-2% 14,332-3% 241,142-2% 16,483-4% $922 Behaviour Change 686,425-7% 46,921-11% 789,451-8% 53,963-13% $0 Vehicle Electrification 180,407-2% 16,425-4% 202,765-2% 18,511-4% $34 Reductions Subtotal 1,391,012 99,176 1,595, ,682 $154 Reduction from BAU -14% -24% -15% -27% Reduction from % -16% -3% -9% Waste Waste Diversion ,380-3% ,530-4% $1 TOTALS TOTAL reductions 2,606, ,897 3,987, ,934 $69 Reduction from % -34% -29% -49% Reduction from BAU -27% -40% -38% -58% Data may not sum to total due to rounding. 11

12 Figure 1 Corporate and community carbon footprint s - the role of local government in climate a ction 1. CITY OF VICTORIA LAND USE AND ENERGY CONTEXT 1.1 Introduction The City of Victoria has changed dramatically over the past 30 years, and is expecting continued growth and change in the coming decades. Among the challenges accompanying this growth are issues of climate change, energy and food security, aging populations and aging infrastructure. This Community Energy and Emission Plan (CEEP) specifically addresses the challenge of climate change, and sets a course to help the City become a more climate change resilient community through the analysis of local strategies and actions to mitigate community-wide energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Bill 27, the Local Government (Green Communities) Act, requires local governments in British Columbia to establish in their official community plans GHG emissions reductions targets, policies and actions. In May 2010, the City of Victoria enshrined in bylaw its commitment to reduce community greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) by at least 33 percent below 2007 levels by 2020, a bold and aspirational target. Achieving this target requires the development of compact and complete neighbourhoods to support alternative transportation modes, renewable energy, and better energy efficiency in new and existing buildings. To accomplish this, Victoria must work within two primary constraints. First, local governments have a limited sphere of influence on energy consumption and GHG emissions in their communities. The management of municipal assets and the provision of services account for only 1% of community GHG emissions (Figure 1), while approximately 40% to 50% of community emissions may be under the influence of local government through land use and transportation planning. Second, local government resources both financial and human are limited (Section 1.1.1). These constraints, paired with the intensity of reductions required to meet established targets, demand that the strategies explored and resources invested in reducing community energy and GHG emissions be carefully directed and managed to maximize results. Figure 1: The role of local government in climate action 12

13 To assist in meeting Victoria s targets, the City has undertaken the development of the CEEP using an innovative process. While CEEPs have now been completed by numerous local governments throughout BC, the challenge remains to develop sound methods by which to marry detailed, technical energy and GHG analysis with meaningful public and stakeholder engagement and decision making. New approaches to GHG modeling, public engagement and scenario visualization, building from a history of award-winning research and applied projects conducted at the University of British Columbia, have provided an opportunity for the City of Victoria to be at the forefront of community energy and emissions planning in the Province Managing constraints As noted, local governments face two primary constraints in dealing with energy reductions and emissions mitigation limited spheres of influence and limited financial and human resources. To address these constraints, and to create an actionable plan, the CEEP process has considered the following: Quantitative evaluation the CEEP process includes the quantitative evaluation of energy, emissions and associated costs to inform recommendations and priorities that are reflective of required financial resources Stakeholder input the CEEP process brought together a variety of stakeholders, climate professionals and industry experts to develop the plan, to provide feedback and to develop key partnerships and collective commitment through early collaboration Identification of City roles the CEEP process identifies the City s potential roles and levels of influence for each recommended action (i.e. control, influence, encourage, Table 32) as well as potential partners (Table 31) to identify where resources outside of local government can be best leveraged (e.g. non-profit partnerships, CRD collaboration, consultation with utilities and property owners, etc.) Supporting initiatives and policy A number of related initiatives and local factors are working together to support this plan and related policy. In 2009, the City of Victoria established a Sustainability department for developing and implementing integrated strategies to address complex environmental and social issues. In addition, a draft Sustainability Framework has been developed to help move the City s corporate and community activities in a more sustainable direction and includes specific goals on energy and climate change that guide this CEEP. The proposed Official Community Plan (OCP) outlines further policies and strategies for achieving planning goals and targets relating to energy and climate change. Additional initiatives and policy supporting this plan include: Climate change adaptation planning using ICLEI Canada risk framework Council commitment to carbon neutrality in municipal operations by 2012 as a signatory of the BC Climate Action Charter BC Transit s Victoria Regional Rapid Transit Strategy Capital Regional District (CRD) Regional Growth Strategy Adoption of Downtown Core Area Plan Renewal of the City s neighbourhood planning program Development of a City-wide Transportation Master Plan Development of three Utilities Master Plans Development of a Parks and Open Space Master Plan and an Urban Forest Management Plan Development of an Economic Development Strategy with a focus on clean technology District energy opportunity assessment and development of district energy governance 13

14 1.2 Planned Community Growth Over the past 30 years, the population of Victoria has increased from 63,800 in 1981 to nearly 83,000 in Most of this growth has occurred in the city core and through the development of higher density residential and mixed-use neighbourhoods that have revitalised former industrial lands. Growth in Victoria over the next 30 years is anticipated to continue at this pace, with an additional 20,000 residents expected by Associated with this growth, the City forecasts a demand for an additional 13,500 apartment units and 2,700 ground oriented units over the same time period. The CRD Regional Growth Strategy 2 establishes the target that a minimum of 15% of the CRD s total new residential units be accommodated within Victoria through Between 2001 and 2007, the City s share of growth has exceeded that target, with an average growth of 22% of the CRD s total. In the city core, the population has increased 17% between 2001 and 2006, with continued growth supported by policy 3 targeting that 50% of forecasted growth for the City, or a minimum of 10,000 new residents, be accommodated in the downtown area by The Downtown Core Area Plan 4 provides direction on supporting population increase, business growth, cultural development, walkability and high-capacity, frequent public transit. Table 1: Population and Housing Projections 5 Data may not sum to total due to rounding. 2 Capital Regional District. (2003). The Capital Regional District Regional Growth Strategy. Prepared by Regional Planning Services, Capital Regional District. 3 City of Victoria. (2012). City of Victoria Official Community Plan. Proposed OCP Bylaw for first reading. Prepared by City of Victoria Planning and Development Department Community Planning Division. 4 City of Victoria. (2011). Downtown Core Area Plan. Prepared by City of Victoria Planning and Development Department Community Planning Division. 5 Urban Futures. (2009). Managing Growth and Change in the City of Victoria: As assessment of the magnitude, nature and timing of population, housing and employment change in the City of Victoria, 2008 to Prepared for The City of Victoria. 14

15 The OCP provides further direction on the accommodation of growth within the Mayfair and Hillside Town Centres and designated Large Urban Villages (Figure 2). These designated areas are projected to accommodate 40% of the forecasted population growth through 2041 (approximately 8,000 residents). The remaining 10% of forecasted growth (approximately 2,000 residents) is planned to be absorbed within Small Urban Villages and existing neighbourhoods. The progressive land use planning initiatives already included in the City s OCP work hand in hand with the GHG mitigation strategies and actions detailed in this report. Figure 2: OCP urban place designations 15

16 1.3 Local Energy Demand and Supply Current energy demand and CEEI baseline An inventory of the City s 2007 community energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions is documented in the 2007 Community Energy and Emissions Inventory (CEEI) provided by the BC Ministry of Environment 6. Modeled community energy and emissions used for analysis in the development of the CEEP have been calibrated to align with the CEEI numbers. See Table 3 (Section 1.4) for the calibrated 2007 baseline numbers used for this project. For the 2007 baseline year, total community GHG emissions were reported at 383,383 tonnes, or roughly 5 tonnes per Victoria resident. Proportionately, 44% of community GHG emissions were from transportation, 29% from commercial buildings, 22% from residential buildings and 5% from solid waste. The proportion of commercial emissions is high for due to the City s role as the central business district for the region. Additionally, residential emissions are shaped both by the City s lower than average reliance on natural gas, and a high percentage of heating oil for residential buildings (27% of residential energy use and 59% of residential emissions). In total, the City used over 9 million gigajoules (GJ) of energy from all sources, including electricity, natural gas, propane, gasoline, diesel and other energy sources. Electricity was the most commonly used form of energy, accounting for over one-third of all energy consumed. Buildings consumed over 70% of the total community energy (in GJ) and result in 51% of community GHG emissions. The lower proportion of building sector emissions, as compared to energy consumption, is due to the low-carbon supply of electricity providing many of the buildings services. Figure 4 illustrates total building energy consumption across the City. On a per capita basis (Figure 5), Victoria performs better than many North American cities due to the City s mild climate, low-emission electricity supply, and relatively compact land uses. In particular, certain Victoria neighbourhoods, such as Harris Green and downtown perform particularly well due to more efficient building forms, a mix of land uses, and options for alternative modes of transportation. However, Victoria s per capita emissions are also significantly higher than many leading European and Asian cities, and far higher than that global per capita levels considered necessary to avoid dangerous levels of climate change 7. Figure 3: Victoria 2007 energy and emissions 8 6 The CEEI report can be viewed at: 7 Dodman, D. (2009). Blaming cities for climate change? An analysis of urban greenhouse gas emissions inventories. Environment and Urbanization, 21(1), HB Lanarc. (2010). Victoria Energy and Emissions Baseline Mapping. Prepared for The City of Victoria. 16

17 Figure 4: Total estimated building energy use 9 Figure 5: Comparison of Victoria per capita emissions and city benchmarks 10 9 HB Lanarc. (2010). Victoria Energy and Emissions Baseline Mapping. Prepared for The City of Victoria. 10 HB Lanarc. (2010). Victoria Energy and Emissions Baseline Mapping. Prepared for The City of Victoria. 17

18 1.3.2 Local energy supply potential An assessment of local energy supply potential, with an emphasis on district energy, was completed by Kerr Wood Leidal in May This report reviewed opportunities for local renewable and/or alternative energy sources, including bioenergy, geoexchange, solar, wind, wastewater and heat recovery, and also identified existing district energy systems. The following map (Figure 6) summarizes the findings of the report. Among the key findings, the report identifies that there is as much as 785,000 MWh of renewable, low-carbon energy available locally within the City from a diversity of sources. This is enough energy to heat approximately 90,000 apartments more than enough to house the entire population of the City indicating the potential supply currently outweighs potential demand. However, the actual utilization of available renewable energy depends largely on appropriate land use planning to locate demands near supplies and requires significant investment in the required infrastructure and technologies associated with each energy source. Table 2 specifies the estimated energy potential for several local energy sources. Figure 6: Potential local energy sources 11 Table 2: Estimated quantities of local energy available for district energy applications 11 Kerr Wood Leidal Associates. (2010). Energy Baseline Mapping and Analysis: Assessment of District Energy Systems. Prepared for The City of Victoria. 18

19 1.4 Baseline and BAU Scenario A business as usual (BAU) scenario for the City projects the potential energy consumption and GHG emissions at 2020 and 2041 in the absence of additional energy or GHG mitigation policies or action. The BAU includes projected increases in population and employment, projected building types 12 and the effects of established senior government policies and regulations, such as vehicle emission standards and landfill gas capture. The BAU scenario developed for the City projects a 9% increase in emissions (6% increase in energy) by 2020 and a 21% increase in emissions (15% increase in energy) by Table 3 summarizes 2007 baseline and BAU energy and emissions. See Appendix B for further details on BAU calculations. Table 3: 2007 Baseline and BAU scenario energy and emissions Energy (GJ) Ground-Oriented Residential Buildings Data may not sum to total due to rounding. GHG Emissions (tonnes) BAU 2041 BAU BAU 2041 BAU Electricity 535, , ,986 3,668 3,697 3,595 Natural Gas 36, , ,481 1,870 5,275 9,205 Propane 126, , ,918 7,717 7,389 6,522 Heating Oil 727, , ,708 51,255 47,582 41,997 Wood 263, , , Renewable Subtotal 1,689,019 1,676,148 1,615,551 64,607 64,015 61,382 Apartment Residential Buildings Electricity 710, , ,736 4,869 5,209 5,732 Natural Gas 669, , ,834 34,133 39,366 48,289 Renewable Subtotal 1,379,857 1,526,741 1,777,570 39,002 44,575 54,021 Commercial Buildings Electricity 1,985,177 1,882,834 1,960,784 13,602 12,992 13,529 Natural Gas 1,573,177 1,820,596 1,921,538 80,232 92,850 97,998 Renewable Subtotal 3,558,354 3,703,430 3,882,322 93, , ,527 Buildings Total 6,627,230 6,906,319 7,275, , , ,930 Transportation Fossil Fuel 2,454,250 2,718,040 3,126, , , ,790 Electricity Transport. Total 2,454,250 2,718,040 3,126, , , ,790 Waste ,310 19,170 22,050 TOTAL 9,081,480 9,624,359 10,401, , , ,770 Increase from % 15% 9% 21% 12 Projections based on Urban Futures. (2009). Managing Growth and Change in the City of Victoria: As assessment of the magnitude, nature and timing of population, housing and employment change in the City of Victoria, 2008 to Prepared for The City of Victoria. 19

20 2. COMMUNITY ENERGY AND EMISSIONS PLAN METHODOLOGY 2.1 Overview Analysis for the City of Victoria CEEP was conducted using an innovative new energy and emissions assessment tool, the Climate Action Navigator (CAN) (Section 2.2). This tool was used in facilitated workshops (Section 2.3) with City staff and invited climate professionals and industry experts to explore potential community emission mitigation strategies and to develop specific, measurable targets and actions as inputs to the final CEEP document. In addition, it is intended that the CAN tool will be made available to the general public via the internet to educate the public about the impact and cost of different energy and emissions reduction strategies, to support transparency regarding the climate change mitigation planning process, and to illustrate the rigour used to model and analyse energy and emissions data. Using a structured decision making (SDM) approach (Appendix C), energy and emission reduction strategies, objectives and measures were developed by the CEEP project team, in consultation with the City s directors and assistant directors as well as the City s Integrated Planning Committee. Each strategy included in the CEEP has been evaluated against the developed objectives and associated quantitative and qualitative measures for the plan s three time horizons: 2020, 2041 and Quantitative measures (energy consumption, GHG emissions and cost) were analysed within the CAN tool (Section 2.2.1). Qualitative measures were assessed first by participants in the CAN workshops, and subsequently by the CEEP project team. The resulting strategies, energy and emissions effects, and associated costs are provided in Section 4, and were used for the prioritization of the strategies for ongoing and future implementation (Sections 5 and 6). Table 4: CEEP Project Objectives Measure Units Quantifiable Objectives Reduce community GHG emissions Total community GHG emissions tonnes/year Reduce cost of implementation Cost per tonne GHG reduced $/tonne Increase building energy efficiency Building sector energy consumption GJ/year Reduce waste Tonnes of waste reduced tonnes/year Reduce high GHG transportation modes Transportation sector GHG emissions tonnes/year Qualitative Objectives Maximize public involvement in implementation Maximize flexibility of strategies Maximize ease of implementation Minimize risk of implementation Work through partnerships where possible Maximize synergistic effects Minimize trade-offs 20

21 2.2 The Climate Action Navigator Tool The CAN tool has been developed from modeling methods originating at the University of British Columbia. Earlier versions of these methods have been applied in a number of award-winning projects such as Plan It Calgary, the City of North Vancouver s 100 Year Sustainability Vision, and the Emerald Hills Sustainable Urban Village in Strathcona County, Alberta. The methods were also used to provide the land use modeling for a recent major national study funded by the QUEST (Quality Urban Energy Systems of Tomorrow) consortium: The capacity for integrated urban energy solutions (ICES) policies to reduce urban greenhouse gas emissions. This study, led by MK Jaccard and Associates estimated the effects of municipal policies on overall national GHG reduction capacities. The modeling methods applied in the CAN tool use development patterns to represent urban form and transportation patterns at a city-wide scale, while allowing sub-models to access detailed building-level data for estimations of building energy, transportation demand and associated GHG emissions. Recently, a costing component has been added to this model, enabling strategies to be evaluated not only for reductions in GHG emissions but also for capital and operating (e.g. fuel and maintenance) costs. The CAN tool was explicitly created for use in interactive stakeholder workshops and allows for recalculation of model inputs in real-time. This feature enables CAN tool users to explore multiple scenarios quickly and to view the impacts of their choices. The tool further allows for comparative analysis of climate change mitigation strategies for decision making, and can be used as an educational tool, familiarizing users with various strategies, drivers and impacts. Specific strategies and settings assessed with the CAN tool are detailed throughout Section 4. Details on the modeling methods used for the CAN tool can be found in Appendix B CAN tool outputs The CAN tool provides a quantitative evaluation of energy and emission reduction strategies as measured by energy, GHG emissions and cost. Detailed methods for each of these calculations can be found in Appendix B. Energy is measured in gigajoules (GJ) and GHG emissions are measured in metric tonnes (t). Cost measures are provided as total incremental cost and incremental cost per tonne of emissions reduced. The cost of each strategy is determined by calculating the incremental capital cost, operating and fuel costs using a Net Present Value (NPV) approach. Incremental capital cost refers to the difference in cost as compared to conventional practice or technology for initial purchase and replacements depending on the lifespan of the technology. The NPV is calculated based on the standard Levelized Cost of Energy calculation method, which enables the cost comparison of different technologies or strategies of unequal life span, capital costs, operating costs, and efficiencies. This simplified method of estimating cost is appropriate for comparison purposes only, and is not intended to be used as a predictor of actual future expenses. The NPV method of calculation reflects both upfront capital costs and operating and fuel costs over time. The NPV of some strategies may be negative; this occurs when savings from reduced operating and energy costs over time outweigh the incremental cost of the initial capital investment. Other strategies may have seemingly high costs per tonne; however, this measure compares only against GHG emission reductions and does not capture substantial co-benefits associated with many strategies. 21

22 Figure 7: The CAN tool interface 22

23 2.3 Stakeholder Engagement Workshops To develop a realistic plan for energy and GHG reductions within the City of Victoria, a series of stakeholder workshops were held to explore a range of GHG reduction strategies. During the workshops, the interactive CAN tool was employed to allow participants to deeply engage with the strategies and their modeled performance. The workshops fulfilled a number of purposes: to educate workshop participants about the range of GHG/energy strategies available, to provide information on the associated costs and benefits of particular strategies, to examine the feasibility of the community s existing GHG reduction target of 33% by 2020, to involve stakeholders in creating a prioritized list of strategies that are best suited to the City of Victoria, and to help the City create specific targets for energy and GHG reductions using a "bottom-up" approach based on the selected strategies. The workshops began with an introduction to the process, followed by a presentation on the list of strategies for review. Baseline and business as usual modeling results, including energy implications and cost estimates, were presented. Stakeholders were then divided into small groups (tables of 6 to 8 participants), where they were engaged in facilitated discussions about the strategies presented. They were encouraged to critique the strategies and their assumptions and to suggest new strategies. Each group had access to the model, displayed on a 40 flat screen monitor, where model assumptions and outputs could be explored. Each group was asked to select a series of strategies and feasible targets towards achieving the City s 2020 reduction target (i.e. 33% by 2020). At the same time, the long term (2041 and 2080) implications were modeled and presented to provide understanding on how short term decisions translate into reductions over the long term. After the workshops, the CEEP project team used the outcomes from the workshops to inform the creation of the prioritized list of actions (see Sections 5 and 6). Figure 8: CAN tool workshops 23

24 3. VISION, GOALS AND TARGETS 3.1 Vision and Goals In recognition of the importance of energy and climate change planning in Victoria, the City has already identified an overarching sustainability vision, as well as a number of energy and climate specific goals and objectives: 2041 Vision (from the OCP): Victoria, as a community and municipal corporation, is an urban sustainability leader inspiring innovation, pride and progress towards greater ecological integrity, livability, economic vitality, and community resiliency as we confront the challenges facing society and the planet today and for generations to come. Energy and Climate Goals (from the OCP): 1. Victoria and Victorians are more resilient to climate change and energy scarcity and costs 2. New and existing buildings are energy efficient, and produce few greenhouse gas emissions 3. Transportation options reduce fossil fuel dependence, help conserve energy and produce low greenhouse gas emissions and other air contaminants 4. The waste stream to the regional landfill is reduced to a minimum, with recovery, re-use, recycling and composting of resources undertaken as standard practice 5. Victoria relies on clean, renewable, diverse and efficient energy sources Energy and Climate Objectives (from the OCP): 1. That climate change is mitigated through the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from buildings, transportation and solid waste 2. That the community is prepared for climate change through adaptation planning that reduces future impacts on public health, property and the natural environment 3. That community energy consumption and generation are managed to give priority to conservation and efficiency, diversification of supply, renewable energy and low carbon fuels 4. That the supply, distribution and efficient use of energy, including the provision of renewable energy at the district scale, is achieved in alignment with the Urban Place Guidelines in [the OCP]. 24

25 3.2 Energy and Emissions Targets Few North American cities have set emissions targets as ambitious as those in British Columbia. As identified in the proposed OCP, Victoria has committed that the City s 2020 target for greenhouse gas emissions is to reduce levels by 33% from 2007 levels. Recommendations for greenhouse gas reduction strategies and strategy specific targets and actions, e.g. for building retrofits and district energy, are provided in Sections 4 and 5 of this document. 25

26 4. CLIMATE ACTION STRATEGIES 4.1 Overview Table 5 summarizes the GHG and energy reduction strategies considered by the project team, staff and stakeholders during the CEEP process. Strategies were organized and considered according to the BC Hydro energy hierarchy, beginning with demand reduction opportunities. Staff and stakeholders recognized early in the process that to meet the challenging 2020 target established by the City, a combination of all available energy and GHG reduction strategies would have to be implemented in effective and creative ways. The following sections describe each of the strategies listed in Table 5, and report on the findings made and discussions had by staff and stakeholders during the CAN workshops and through the course of the CEEP process. Low and high feasible targets specific to each strategy have been established based on the expertise of local and technical experts present at the workshops. Using a SDM approach (Appendix C), each strategy has been quantitatively and qualitatively evaluated against the project objectives identified previously in Table 4. As summarized in Section 4.2, the total emissions reductions resulting from the low and high targets range from a 2020 reduction of 14% below 2007 levels (using the low end of all targets) to a reduction of 34% below 2007 levels (using the high end of all targets). Sections 4.3 through 4.9 provide details on the energy, emissions, costs, and qualitative impacts of each strategy. For information on how quantitative results were calculated for each strategy, please see Appendix B. These results are both encouraging and challenging. It is encouraging that local and technical experts were able to chart a path for energy and emissions reductions that could meet and even exceed the City s 2020 target. However, the City s target of 33% is on the high end of what stakeholders felt could be achieved. The challenge for the City, then, is to develop a course of implementation, beginning with this report, which strives to maximise gains from each strategy in innovative and engaging ways. The City s OCP and sustainability policies provide a sound framework for this to happen, but much action is still required. Sections 5 and 6 of this report provide prioritized strategy recommendations and initial implementation considerations for achieving the ambitious task set by stakeholders, staff and the CEEP project team. 26

27 Table 5: List of strategies and key CAN model variables 27

28 4.2 Summary of estimated energy and emission savings and cost As presented at the beginning of Section 4, the project team took the low and high ranges of targets set by stakeholders for each strategy and used the CAN tool to model low and high future energy and emission reduction scenarios for the City, to see what total reductions could be achieved. Using the low range of targets, total community emissions for the City are estimated to be reduced 14% by 2020 and 29% by 2041 (Table 6). Using the high range of targets, total community emissions are estimated to be reduced 34% by 2020 and 49% by 2041 (Table 7), exceeding the City s established 2020 target by 1%. Tables 8 and 9 summarize energy consumption and GHG emissions for the 2007 baseline, 2020 and 2041 BAU scenarios (Section 1.4), and 2020 and 2041 high and low target scenarios. These tables also show electrical consumption and emissions resulting from electricity Emissions reductions and electricity consumption One of the key ways that emissions reductions have been achieved for both the low and high target ranges set by stakeholders is through the use of low-carbon hydroelectricity to displace fossil fuel consumption in both the building and transportation sectors. For transportation, the use of electric vehicles has been included to reduce GHG emissions and increase energy efficiency for private vehicles. For buildings, high efficiency electric heat pumps have been targeted as an important technology for space heating. However, stakeholders, staff and the CEEP project team have recognized that using increasing amounts of electricity may also have negative consequences such as increased electricity prices and challenges in maintaining a low-carbon electricity supply. For this reason, the strategies and targets selected by stakeholders and presented in this report use electricity as an opportunity for emissions reductions, but also rely on the BC Hydro energy hierarchy to use electricity strategically. For buildings, strategies to reduce overall heating demand and to identify potential sources of waste heat have been considered in tandem with the use of electric heating technologies. In addition, high efficiency electric heating systems such as air to air heat pumps have been preferenced over less efficient technologies such as electric baseboards. For transportation, strategies to reduce the demand for private vehicles overall are used in conjunction with an increase in electric vehicles. Emphasizing demand reduction strategies in combination with the use of low-carbon, hydroelectricity to reduce GHG emissions results in overall reductions in electricity consumption: from over 3.2 million GJ in 2007 to between 2.9 and 2.7 million GJ in 2020 (a reduction of 11% -17%), compared to 3.2 million for the BAU scenario. For 2041, electricity consumption is estimated at between 3.1 and 2.8 million GJ, compared to 3.3 million for the BAU scenario (Table 8). 28

29 Figure 9: Emission reductions by strategy, low range Table 6: Energy and emissions reductions for 2020 and 2041, low range Energy (GJ) GHG (t) Energy (GJ) GHG (t) Cost ($/t) Business as Usual 9,624, ,362 10,401, ,770 $0 From BAU: decr/(incr) % decr/(incr) % decr/(incr) % decr/(incr) % avg Buildings Building Retrofits 348,997-4% 15,118-4% 1,038,136-10% 41,190-10% $2 New Construction 121,658-1% 9,778-2% 572,807-6% 38,838-9% ($17) District Energy 132,877-1% 6,455-2% (253,820) 2% 14,637-3% $27 Reductions Subtotal 603,532 31,351 1,357,123 94,665 ($1) Reduction from BAU -6% -7% -13% -23% Reduction from % 1% 0% -4% Transportation TDM 314,508-3% 21,498-5% 361,712-3% 24,725-6% $124 Transit Improvements 52,418-1% 3,583-1% 60,285-1% 4,121-1% $567 Behaviour Change 249,609-3% 17,062-4% 574,146-6% 39,246-9% $0 Vehicle Electrification 76,880-1% 6,981-2% 176,838-2% 16,056-4% $15 Reductions Subtotal 693,415 49,124 1,172,981 84,148 $62 Reduction from BAU -7% -12% -11% -20% Reduction from % -3% 2% -1% Waste Waste Diversion ,580-2% ,860-3% $1 TOTALS TOTAL reductions 1,296,947 90,055 2,530, ,673 $28 Reduction from % -14% -13% -29% Reduction from BAU -13% -21% -24% -41% Data may not sum to total due to rounding. 29

30 Figure 10: Emission reductions by strategy, high range Table 7: Energy and emissions reductions for 2020 and 2041, high range Energy (GJ) GHG (t) Energy (GJ) GHG (t) Cost ($/t) Business as Usual 9,624, ,362 10,401, ,770 $0 From BAU: decr/(incr) % decr/(incr) % decr/(incr) % decr/(incr) % avg Buildings Building Retrofits 721,145-7% 31,345-7% 1,164,928-11% 50,707-12% $4 New Construction 226,586-2% 13,331-3% 1,240,920-12% 61,896-15% ($10) District Energy 267,599-3% 8,665-2% (13,908) 0% 25,119-6% $22 Reductions Subtotal 1,215,330 53,341 2,391, ,722 $2 Reduction from BAU -13% -13% -23% -33% Reduction from % -4% -12% -15% Transportation TDM 314,508-3% 21,498-5% 361,712-3% 24,725-6% $124 Transit Improvements 209,672-2% 14,332-3% 241,142-2% 16,483-4% $922 Behaviour Change 686,425-7% 46,921-11% 789,451-8% 53,963-13% $0 Vehicle Electrification 180,407-2% 16,425-4% 202,765-2% 18,511-4% $34 Reductions Subtotal 1,391,012 99,176 1,595, ,682 $154 Reduction from BAU -14% -24% -15% -27% Reduction from % -16% -3% -9% Waste Waste Diversion ,380-3% ,530-4% $1 TOTALS TOTAL reductions 2,606, ,897 3,987, ,934 $69 Reduction from % -34% -29% -49% Reduction from BAU -27% -40% -38% -58% Data may not sum to total due to rounding. 30

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