CURBING YOUR ENTHUSIASM? RISKS IN FORECASTING ASIAN GAMING GROWTH

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1 William R. Eadington University of Nevada, Reno CURBING YOUR ENTHUSIASM? RISKS IN FORECASTING ASIAN GAMING GROWTH Insert your Company optional client logo STRUCTURED FINANCE 00 MONTH 2004

2 ANALYZING THE CURRENT FORCES DRIVING DEMAND IN MACAU Rapid real economic growth, especially in Mainland China New product phenomenon: Never before anything like this in the region Relaxation of visa constraints from Mainland China Increased competition leading to greater marketing efforts 2

3 ANALYZING THE CURRENT FORCES DRIVING SUPPLY IN MACAU Government s decision to increase the number of licenses and to legitimize the legal/regulatory environment Creation of an environment that could attract significant CAPEX Willingness of major gaming companies to make significant financial commitments to projects in Macau Response of the incumbent concessionaire to anticipated competition Significant capital investment that was not occurring prior to

4 GUIDELINES FOR PROJECTING WHEN THE MARKET BECOMES SATURATED GGRs will level out at some percentage of aggregate personal income in the market area Guideline in US markets: 1.0% of API from local/regional market. Applicability in Macau? Once saturation has emerged, future growth will parallel (or slightly exceed) growth rates in API 4

5 VERY ROUGH ESTIMATES OF MACAU MARKET POTENTIAL (2005) Casino Market Penetration Exchange rate GDP (US$m.) Population (millions) GGR potential CHINA (6 regional provinces) 1.0% $600, $5,766.9 HONG KONG 1.5% $172, $2,589.0 TAIWAN 0.5% $630, $3,150.0 MACAU 2.0% $10, $200.0 TOTAL $1,412, $11,

6 MORE OPTIMISTIC ROUGH ESTIMATES OF MACAU MARKET POTENTIAL (2010 or beyond) Casino Market Penetration Exchange rate GDP (US$m.) Population (millions) GGR potential CHINA (6 regional provinces) 1.5% $881, $13,224.0 HONG KONG 3.5% $253, $8,876.2 TAIWAN 0.8% $804, $6,030.4 MACAU 4.0% $16, $644.2 TOTAL $1,955, $28,

7 GUIDELINES FOR PROJECTING WHEN THE MARKET BECOMES SATURATED Return on Invested Capital will decline in response to greater supply, greater competition New investment projects will taper off in anticipation of excess supply in the future 7

8 Las Vegas Casinos ROIC LAS VEGAS STRIP, % Pre-1998 Recent Openings 30% 28% 27% 25% 20% 21% 20% 16% 15% 13% 12% 10% 5% 5% 0% New York- New York Monte Carlo Treasure Island Luxor Paris Bellagio Mandalay Bay Venetian Source: Company reports and BancBoston Robertson Stephens estimates. Implications: Dilemma is build for visitor growth or use cash to repurchase stock Price of entry has increased from $600 million to $1 billion Future projects must be rationalized for acceptable ROIC (>15%) Aladdin: -5%

9 CHALLENGES CONFRONTING MACAU Space constraints (28 sq. k.): How best to use it Will the Chinese casino gaming market evolve in similar ways to Western markets, or will it be fundamentally different? Will Macau be able to avoid serious regulatory scandals/ challenges in the future? (i.e. Integrating VIP rooms) Will regional competition (i.e. Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea, Japan) become significant? What will Beijing do? (Hainan Island?) 9

10 STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS Relative strengths of the main competitors As market matures, which companies get squeezed? Developing the proper mix of high end, mid-level, and value for money properties Drawing parallels from abroad: Beau Rivage & Biloxi Continuing investment in resources and public sector infrastructure Airport, highway systems, ferry & bridges Labor force training and development Refreshment investments 10

11 PROGNOSIS: WHAT WILL MACAU BE LIKE IN 2020? With Las Vegas, one of the two Global destination resort cities in the world Can Macau learn to redefine itself as does Las Vegas? A major hub for Conventions, Exhibitions, and leisure travel in the region Land and space constraints may limit Macau s ability to grow beyond some peak capacity level Regional competition will limit revenue growth 11

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