LONG-RANGE FORECASTING

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "LONG-RANGE FORECASTING"

Transcription

1 LONG-RANGE FORECASTING P URPOSE Long-range forecasting is a valued planning tool used to visualize and stimulate big-picture thinking. It enables the government to step back from the detail endemic of the budget process to think more strategically and holistically to plan responsible annual budgets that work toward Town Goals. Longrange forecasting of annual budget priorities creates a context for evaluating budgetary impacts, building a baseline for measuring long-term effects of decisions, test economic effects of best-case and worst-case funding scenarios, and provides a reasonable understanding of revenue and expenditure projections, future cash flows and fund balances. Long-range forecasting does not present a 5-year budget or plan for the Town. It is not a static document to be approved and placed on a shelf. Forecast models are not absolute predictions of the future, instead are projections of possible outcomes based on a set of known variables and assumptions to evaluate annual decisions. The organization achieves a long-term financial goal of sustainability and serves the main financial goals of flexibility, efficiency, risk management, sufficiency, and credibility. The application of such analytical long-range forecasting principals contributes toward the following: Build awareness of the probable results of projections with current operating and capital spending and funding levels Assist the Town in determining the extent of its financial challenges with key decisions Generate discussion on the key financial goals and strategies that should guide future planning Spur the development of actions in future business plans that would respond to the long-term strategies Be a foundation to the annual budget process. The ability to make global adjustments to parameters within forecast helps decision makers and recommending staff understand the impacts of external factors such as natural disasters, world economic impacts, construction materials cost, labor, and equipment availability. A UDIENCE The applied use of long-range forecasting is primarily designed as an internal evaluation tool for staff, but outputs are useful in discussions with the following groups: Finance and Budgeting advisors Senior Administration Town Council Those involved in other major planning initiatives Intergovernmental contacts F ORECASTING C OMPONENTS REVENUE A government s revenue structure can be greatly influenced by many economic, political, and social factors. These factors are unknown at the time forecast are generated, therefore assumptions are drawn based on current circumstances and probable expectations. Forecasting models evaluate revenues based primarily on a hybrid qualitative and quantitative approach depending on the revenue source applying the following process characteristics to achieve reliable results: Historical trend data Consideration of all revenue influences Consistent review of revenue source characteristics Consensus evaluation Monitoring of revenue collections and patterns Forecasting validation and adaptation Morrisville characterizes revenues as either routine (having predictable patterns and clear influences) or non-routine (unpredictable and sensitive to outside influences) classifications to understand the efficiency, elasticity, diversity, and dependability of a source to apply forecasting techniques to yield reasonable expectations. In recent years, forecasting has leaned 73

2 toward a more conservative forecasting foundation for major revenue sources since the recession until a more consistent pattern of economic recovery becomes evident within these sources. BASE OPERATING EXPENSES Forecasts project operational, personnel, and capital cost per department based on departmental 5-Year Business and Staffing Plans. Operating expenditure projections are based on a combination of historical trends, assumptions about the future, and other judgments deemed appropriate by staff. These plans assume various annual growth multipliers depending on the type of expenditure for basic operations, which are expenditures considered routine in nature required annually to deliver services to the community. The level of routine operational expenses are evaluated annually based on demands, planned service expansions, Consumer Price Index, trends, and affordability to assure basic operational expenses are both reasonable and flexible. STAFFING PLAN New staff authorizations are assumed within the projected forecast based on priorities, anticipated service expansions, capital improvement projects requiring additional operational staff once online, and workload management needs as determined by Town Manager and Senior Directors. Cost estimates include all benefits and any related cost associated with position type such as vehicle, equipment, etc... Total personnel costs per capita are forecasted to increase no more than the inflation rate. Some degree of inflationary cost representing possible merit and promotional progression assumptions are included across the five-year window. The Personnel Cost Per Capita Chart illustrates a comparison of personnel cost/per Capita to an average rate of inflation, demonstrating our ability to control personnel expenses within future budgets. SPECIAL PRIORITIES Special priorities are the result of one-time or shortterm expenses from equipment replacement needs, small pay-as-you-go capital projects or implementation projects, and new initiatives that may affect the cost structure creating budgetary fluctuations annually. These items may or may not qualify as capital outlay. Such priorities are elevated in the budget process through the annual evaluation of the Performance Management Program assessing progress toward Strategic Town Goals, celebration of successes, and recognition of areas to improve. The budget identifies such items within each department profile as non-routine/new items to differentiate between what is a base operational budget and onetime expenses. CAPITAL RESERVE FUND The use of this fund is to set aside money each year to pay for large fire apparatus items in accordance with an Apparatus Replacement Plan. Such items tend to be costly and can compete with basic operational needs for limited resources. This fund allows over time for the accumulation of funding to plan for and replace these items without significant impacts annually. When the reserve fund has enough money for an outlay, the money transfers from the reserve fund to the general fund for spending. These funds may not be transferred out to supplement shortfalls in other funds, but rather only transferred back to General Fund to purchase items for which the funds are designated. CAPITAL INVESTMENT PROGRAM PROJECTS A portion of the Town s annual expenses pay for debt obligation to complete major capital improvement projects. To provide for adequate financial planning while attempting to maintain an appropriate property tax rate, the Town maintains a 5-year Capital Improvements Program that list future capital project needs. The Town must plan for the Town s future wellbeing for residential purposes, but also for providing infrastructure to support and promote commerce. Most annual costs relate to daily operations for personnel, equipment, and material costs. To preserve the future good use of public infrastructure the Town must provide for continued investment in existing and new facilities. Forecasting models includes assumptions for debt outlay and operation impacts for all CIP projects, which Town Council activated through prioritization and funding designation. DEBT Morrisville s debt management policy states that annual debt service payments shall not be greater than 15 percent of total governmental revenues. Total net debt shall not be greater than 8 percent of the value of the Town s property tax base (North Carolina General Statute (c)). The Town s 74

3 Debt Service Ratio in comparison to Operational Ratios and Unassigned Fund Balance levels are used to determine the Town s ability to improve service levels or improve capital assets. Debt agreements are reviewed annually to examine and forecasting debt. REPLACEMENT PLANS The replacement of major equipment such as vehicles, heavy equipment, technology and fire apparatus can be costly and budgetarily overwhelming without replacement criteria, evaluation, and planning. Longrange forecasts include strategic replacements to effectively manage and carefully plan for such large expenses balancing needs with affordability. The goal is to achieve a pay-as-you-go approach, control debt obligation, and save on interest costs for these capital assets having a lifespan greater than 5 years, but less 8 years. Additionally, the organization can effectively anticipate surplus resources while they have remaining useful life allowing for better resale revenue. As equipment is replaced and declared surplus they are advertised for sale to other jurisdictions throughout the country. The replacement plan prioritizes replacement needs using qualifying criteria evaluated annually by plan managers. Assumptions are built-in for annual replacement needs and anticipated surplus in accordance with the replacement plans. Fleet Replacement Plan In 2005, the Town consolidated vehicle acquisition and maintenance into the Public Works Department. By reviewing individual vehicle use the fleet manager assigns vehicles based on need, availability and planned replacement. Heavy Equipment Replacement Plan Replacement of Heavy Equipment is important to maintaining service delivery. Each piece of equipment is programmed for replacement on a regular basis. As equipment is replaced and declared surplus they are advertised for sale to other jurisdictions throughout the country. Information Technology Replacement Plan Replacement and installation of technology equipment is based on an average lifespan of 4 to 5 years. Technology is an important factor in an organization s systems efficiency and productivity. ADOPTED PLANS Forecasting models incorporate assumptions for small implementation projects, studies, and land acquisition as prescribed by adopted plans unless Council has directed otherwise. Such plans focus in on specific goals defining action plans, desired outcomes, and potential funding solutions. Recreational Facilities & Greenways Implementation Plan In 2006, Town Council adopted The Parks, Recreation, Greenways, and Open Space Master Plan. The master plan designates an implementation plan for specific project segments to develop the Town s parks and greenways system. Funding for this plan may be supplemented by the general fund, but primarily funds received from Parkland Payment in Lieu fees from new development support this plan. Revenues are booked directly to this Capital Project. Town Center Plan Adopted in 2007, the Town Center Plan describes a vision for creating a vibrant Town Center at Morrisville s historic center. Key elements of the plan include preservation of historic structures, creation of community gathering places, linkage of parks and greenways and improving transportation. Implementation plans define more than 20 projects. Land Use Plan (LUP) and Transportation Plan (TP) Understanding the direction of the Town s development attitude provides insight useful in building certain revenue, expenditure, and capital assumptions. LUP seeks to capitalize on opportunities in Morrisville while maintaining the Town s historic roots and small town feel. Key to the LUP is the balance of desired low density residential with the need for overall economic growth as well as nearby shopping and work opportunities. The Plan integrates transportation by linking land uses with appropriate transportation plan facilities that offer opportunities for walking, biking or driving. 75

4 FUND BALANCE The model uses Unassigned Fund Balance as a measure of flexibility in conjunction with, revenue composition, operational cost structure, debt levels and mandates. The Policy prescribes that Unassigned Fund Balance shall be no less than 25% of major operating expenditures with a target of 45%. This is government s ability to adapt its fiscal structure to changing conditions. T RANSITION TO B UDGET Budget development breaks away from the traditional methods generally used by local governments. Traditionally, departments are required to identify their needs annually and provide justification to the Budget Officer (Town Manager). Morrisville requires greater depth of analysis by departments to develop Business Plans looking forward 5-years. These plans provide for explanation of expenditures to line item detail including unfunded or deferred expenditures depending on prior year s outcome. The LRFM uses the 5-year Business Plans to evaluate additional financial capacity in comparison with revenue forecast to incorporate new initiatives and/or one-time priorities. Essentially, the 5-year plans provide a starting point annually causing departments to make priority-planning decisions understanding the competitiveness of limited resources. Managers start the planning process knowing a baseline budget. Each year departments reassess projections in a new 5-year window adapting existing projections based on performance execution of prior year, lessons learned, political temperature, and strategic guidance provided by senior budget team. Budget submittals evaluated by the budget office are presented to the Town Manager. The Town Manager prepares a balanced recommended budget to present to the Town Council. The elected body evaluates the proposed budget in comparison to Town Goals and Core Values to adopt and establish a management tool for finances, priorities, and services. I NDICATORS AND T RENDS The span of our long-range forecasting evaluates economic influences in projections, considers the cause and effect of capital projects, adopted plans, and provides a responsible path for the annual budgeting process. Without it, annual budgeting would dissolve to a process with lack of vision and direction. Some important elements to track and evaluate in long-range modeling are growth of principle influences such as CIP, budgeting methodology (conservative/aggressive), policy, public facilities, economic expansion or contraction and mandates. The following elements are considered as forecasting indicators in building assumptions and scanned periodically to make certain core components of model are technically sound. Inflation CPI-U The June Card for all items is 2.3%. Edged up from May. Bureau of Labor Statistics South Region The 12-month change has been slow since its recent peak of 2.12 percent in September As of the half-year point moved up by 0.3% 76

5 Growth Population FY2014 reflects a positive increase per State Demographer. In house estimates show potential growth in FY201 based on number of approved Units to reach 22,260. Planning Department; State Demographer State s estimates lag in comparison to inhouse estimates Fixed boundaries result in an assumption of a slower growth. Population growth is an essential indicator in forecasting several major revenues calculated on a per capita basis or provides some parallel to substantiate other non-major revenue assumptions. New Permits Calendar year 2013 held steady compared to prior year. New Commercial attributed to Park West and New Residential Permits as result of approved site plans in queue will continue to sustain as FY2014 closes. New permits have slowed in the 1 st half of calendar year 2014, this can be attributed to weather events & Park West approaching its final phase. Wake County Statistics & Reports Historically over a 10-year period, the trend of New Permit counts are slowing. Changes in tax base primarily results between revaluation through new development. Tracking new permits starts and site plan submittals provides an understanding of possible growth in Ad Valorem as well as some probable assumptions for Development Revenue. 77

6 Tax Base Components 44% Commercial - 56% Residential Wake County Statistics & Reports Holding steady. Changes in commercial and residential development patterns are essential elements to gauge growth in Ad Valorem Taxes. Tax Base Values FY2012 tax base growth increased by 1.42% and current in-house estimates for FY2013 ending at 3% are supported by Wake County Tax Assessor estimates. FY2014 holds a conservative estimate of 2%. CAFR Report, Wake County Tax Assessor Data While permit activity has improved, we must recognize the magnitude that the Park West project has lent to sustaining our growth in FY13. While there are a number of projects on the horizon at the present, there currently is not another project of the same size and magnitude as Park West that would support a growth assumption of 3% or greater. Park West Phase 4 may influence FY14. Between revaluations, changes in tax base values are affected by new development. Economic Growth GDP ISM Non- Manufacturing Index Up at an annual rate of 3.4% for 2013, 2 nd qtr. of 2014 at 4% increase. Down to 56% nationally from 56.3% in May Commerce Dept. Institute for Supply Management An improving index represents the economic health of the nation. Reading above 50 indicates nonmanufacturing sector economy is expanding; Below 50 is contraction. 78

7 ISM Manufacturing NCSU Index of North Carolina Consumer Confidence 55.3% in June. Overall the index indicates expansion for the 13 th consecutive month. Increased in May dropped 5.8%, but the index is up 4.5% year over year and significantly higher than its recessionary bottom. The Index improved in June and July to 90.9 up from The index stands at its highest level since before the Great Recession. The surge fueled by job growth and personal incomes. Institute for Supply Management NCSU Professor Walden The Conference Board of Consumer Research Center Below 42.2 is contraction. The immediate outlook is for a continued economic growth, however not as robust as earlier indications in the year. A reading above 90 would signal a stabilized consumer. Consumer confidence and market trends are key to building assumptions for Sales Tax, can correlate to trends seen in many Recreation Fees, and housing market relating to qualifying development revenue assumptions. Housing & Real Estate Housing Starts Residential Sales Median Home Sale Price Median Home Value Nationally, June housing start decreased by 9.3% as compared to May, but 7.3% above June 2013 Properties sold in Morrisville up 11% at 2013 year end as compared to same period in 2012 Morrisville $220,000 Morrisville $252,000 as of Jan US Census - national Wake County Tax Assessor Wake County Statistic Reports Wake County Statistic Report Up 24.9 year over year. This can show willingness on consumer to make major purchases. Employment Unemployment Rate June 2014 is down to 5.1 from the 6.5 June 2013 and lower as compared to the overall State Unemployment Rate of 6.5 Bureau of Labor Statistics Raleigh Cary NC Metro area Jobless rates are lower. Lower unemployment can signal a healthier economy. 79

8 Fiscal Health Unassigned Fund Balance FY2013 Ended with a 49.7% Unassigned Fund Balance or $11.1M. Projections are based on worst-case scenarios, therefore actual results can vary in comparison. FY2013 CAFR Unassigned balance grew by $853K. Assessing the organization possible financial flexibility allows decisionmakers to visualize and plan budget priorities providing sustainability. Projections are within policy limits, suggesting flexibility. Operational Ratio FY2014 Ratio is estimating greater than 1 - Likely influences will materialize as delayed grant related items that are known carryovers to, a process change in handling Fund Loans for cash flow purposes, and occurrence of lapse salary. FY2014 estimated actuals A measure of 1 or better indicates the organization is living within its resources 80

9 Revenue Per Capita Expenditures Per Capita Revenue continue to show improvement base on trends demonstrated over the past 3- years. FY2014 does incorporate some onetime influences from effects of Tax & Tag program inflating Ad Valorem collections. projections have accounted for this affect 2014 and 2016 identify spike in expenditures per capita largely based on the planned 2012 Bond design and associated debt cost to implement the projects. FY2013 CAFR & Long-range Forecasting FY2013 CAFR & LRFM Revenue per capita indicates the average level of income generated per person. Increasing expenditures per capita may indicate cost of services is increasing beyond ability to afford. Rising expenditures per capita may also indicate declining productivity. Key Debt Ratio By year 2018 new debt outpaces debt retirement. This indicates competitive challenges between operational needs and obligations due to capital investment decisions. FY2013 CAFR & Long-range Forecast Debt should be no greater than 15% of the governmental expenditures less capital outlay. Indicates controlled debt obligation to sustained long-term financial integrity, while influencing high credit ratings. 81

10 Retired Debt Morrisville is capable of staying within Debt Ratio Policy with use of retired debt debt ratio assumptions are resulting within close range to 15%. FY2013 CAFR and LRFM Using 2013 debt service obligation as an annual baseline, we can understand the re-investment of retired debt and evaluate the affordability of increased obligations in relation to expected resources and other competing needs. 82

11 M AJOR L ONG- RANGE F ORECAST A SSUMPTIONS Major Category Revenues Revenues Transfers In Conservative $0.39 Tax Rate Ad Valorem collection Rate increased to 99% $15 Vehicle Decal (Increase) $25 Stormwater ERU Fee (Increase) Sales Tax 6.7% growth Privilege License reduced 15% 3% average growth Capital Reserve Fund-SCBA replacement MSD Transfer In/Debt Expenditures Personnel Merit average 3.4% Plus 5 Positions $360K Insurance12% increase Retirement 18% Gross Wages OPEB 3% LEO Separation 3% Operations Capital Outlay Debt Service Transfers Out Inflationary Adjustments Operations Reserve Branding / Survey $75K Facility studies $60K LAPP Funds $120K Future Roadway Design (TBD) $300K GHSP Grants $20K SCBA replacement 305K (CRF) Vehicle Replacements $356K IT & Equipment Replacements Software Upgrade CAMPO Grant Sidewalk $217K TOC Pedestrian Crossing $78K NCDOT/Progress Energy Project $348K Pool Resurface $25K Higher Street Maintenance CDBG Sidewalk $92K $100K Sidewalk Funds Farmer s Market Grant Match $10K GHSP Grants $20K Providence Place BMP Retro Fit $75K Retiring Debt 2004 RTP Full Year Debt Begins MSD Debt Public Safety Radio Replacement Debt To Capital Reserve Fund $555K To MSD $110K Conservative $0.41 Tax Rate (increase/bond) Ad Valorem collection rate 99% $15 Vehicle Decal $25 Stormwater ERU Sales Tax 6.3% growth Privilege License reduced by 50% 2.3% average growth Capital Reserve Fund MSD Transfer In/Debt Reimbursement from Bond Project Cash Flow Loan NC54 Merit average 2% Insurance 9% increase Retirement 3% increase OPEB 3% LEO Separation 3% Inflationary Adjustments Operations Reserve Bond Sale Cost $250K Small Apparatus/ Vehicle Replacements $812K IT & Other Equipment Replacement Plans Review Software $145K Increased Software Maintenance Higher Street Maintenance MSV Prkwy Signal Pole Upgrade $26K $100K Sidewalk Funds Retiring Debt 2012 Bond Debt NC54 Bypass MSD Debt Public Safety Radio Replacement Debt To Capital Reserve Fund $170K To MSD $110K Assumes Loan Cash Flow MAFC/MCPII Conservative $0.41 Tax Rate Ad Valorem collection rate 99% $15 Vehicle Decal $25 Stormwater ERU Sales Tax 5% growth Privilege License reduced by 50% 1% average growth Revaluation Capital Reserve Fund MSD Transfer In/Debt Merit average 2% Insurance 8% increase Retirement 3% increase OPEB 3% LEO Separation 3% Inflationary Adjustments Operations Reserve Small Area Planning $100K Quint Apparatus/ Vehicle Replacements $1.2M IT & Other Equipment Replacements Software Upgrade Higher Street Maintenance $100K Sidewalk Funds Minor Retiring Debt MSD Debt Public Safety Radio Replacement Debt To Capital Reserve Fund $373K To MSD $110K Conservative $0.41 Tax Rate Ad Valorem collection rate 99% $15 Vehicle Decal $25 Stormwater ERU Sales Tax 5% growth Privilege License reduced by 50% 2.4% average growth None/Capital Reserve Fund MSD Transfer In/Debt Reimbursement from Bond Project Cash Flow Loan MAFC/MCPII Merit average 2% Plus 3 Positions Insurance 7% increase Retirement 3% increase OPEB 3% LEO Separation 3% Inflationary Adjustments Operations Reserve Small Area Planning $100K Vehicle Replacements $140K IT & Other Equipment Replacements Higher Street Maintenance $100K Sidewalk Funds Minor Retiring Debt 2012 Bond Debt MAFC/MCPII MSD Debt Public Safety Radio Replacement Debt To Capital Reserve Fund $50K To MSD $110K Conservative $0.41 Tax Rate Ad Valorem collection rate 99% $15 Vehicle Decal $25 Stormwater ERU Sales Tax 5% growth Privilege License reduced by 50% 3% average growth None/Capital Reserve Fund MSD Transfer In/Debt Merit average 2% Insurance 6% increase Retirement 3% increase LGERS Buy Back Ends OPEB 3% LEO Separation 3% Inflationary Adjustments Operations Reserve Small Area Planning $100K Vehicle Replacements $134K IT & Other Equipment Replacement Higher Street Maintenance $100K Sidewalk Funds MSD Debt Public Safety Radio Replacement Debt To Capital Reserve Fund $50K To MSD $110K Operating Budget for, 2% increase as compared to the Original Approved FY2014 Budget. 5-Year Projections based on Departmental Business Plans. Expenditure increases decrease based on Town Goals, infrastructure additions, population growth, CPI-U, service expansions. 83

12 Modified June 5, Mini Session 5-Year Long-Range Forecast actual 2012 actual 2013 estimated actual 2014 proposed 2015 forecast 2016 forecast 2017 forecast 2018 forecast 2019 Revenues by type Ad Valorem $ 12,480,910 $ 12,947,762 $ 14,397,685 $ 14,536,816 $ 15,655,586 $ 15,811,012 $ 16,124,972 $ 16,525,271 Intergovernmental Revenues Total $ 5,068,135 $ 5,346,806 $ 5,435,721 $ 5,712,945 $ 5,884,888 $ 6,111,929 $ 6,349,590 $ 6,598,423 Intergovernmental Restricted Revenues Total $ 642,114 $ 902,914 $ 500,526 $ 645,580 $ 525,849 $ 541,826 $ 558,242 $ 575,100 Other Taxes & Licenses Total $ 1,449,940 $ 1,505,393 $ 1,690,000 $ 1,643,934 $ 1,358,466 $ 1,378,404 $ 1,401,229 $ 1,420,428 Permits & Fees Total $ 900,934 $ 1,057,788 $ 971,310 $ 969,700 $ 912,090 $ 881,473 $ 904,161 $ 905,440 Stormwater Revenues Total $ - $ 473,230 $ 707,000 $ 502,000 $ 512,000 $ 517,000 $ 522,000 $ 527,000 Sales & Services Total $ 1,041,832 $ 1,031,857 $ 1,063,304 $ 1,090,950 $ 1,104,062 $ 1,126,641 $ 1,151,670 $ 1,175,218 Investment Earnings $ 25,886 $ 23,520 $ 16,200 $ 17,000 $ 17,170 $ 17,342 $ 17,515 $ 17,690 Miscellanous $ 560,725 $ 404,773 $ 275,978 $ 596,075 $ 326,320 $ 229,643 $ 232,970 $ 236,299 Transfers In from Other Fund Sources $ 571,635 $ 1,340,146 $ 1,707,209 $ 505,100 $ 1,116,400 $ 1,173,422 $ 506,100 $ 200,100 Appropriation of Fund Balance $ - $ - $ 651,460 $ - $ - $ - $ - Total Revenues $ 22,742,111 $ 25,034,188 $ 26,764,933 $ 26,871,560 $ 27,412,831 $ 27,788,691 $ 27,768,449 $ 28,180,969 Total Revenues without Transfers $ 22,170,476 $ 23,694,042 $ 25,057,724 $ 25,715,000 $ 26,296,431 $ 26,615,269 $ 27,262,349 $ 27,980,869 Overall Revenue Growth (not including interfund transfers) 8% 7% 6% 3% 2.3% 1% 2.4% 3% Overall Revenue Growth (includes interfund transfers) 2% 10% 7% 0% 2% 1% 0% 1% Revenue Per Capita Less Transfers $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, Expenditures by type Personnel Service $ 12,516,043 $ 12,491,731 $ 13,227,682 $ 14,402,155 $ 14,762,077 $ 15,137,581 $ 15,517,379 $ 15,892,654 Operations $ 4,882,942 $ 5,065,805 $ 6,119,212 $ 7,156,560 $ 6,933,511 $ 6,815,049 $ 6,980,352 $ 7,186,868 Capital Outlay $ 1,685,709 $ 3,176,135 $ 2,990,548 $ 2,645,085 $ 2,240,832 $ 2,453,926 $ 1,347,392 $ 1,484,693 Interfund Transfers $ 1,315,000 $ 1,203,500 $ 1,625,000 $ 665,000 $ 892,000 $ 483,000 $ 160,000 $ 160,000 Debt $ 1,647,464 $ 1,611,580 $ 1,518,181 $ 2,002,760 $ 3,094,299 $ 3,025,303 $ 3,526,400 $ 3,444,946 Total Expenditures $ 22,047,159 $ 23,548,751 $ 25,480,623 $ 26,871,560 $ 27,922,719 $ 27,914,859 $ 27,531,523 $ 28,169,161 Total Expenditures without Transfers $ 20,732,159 $ 22,345,251 $ 23,855,623 $ 26,206,560 $ 27,030,719 $ 27,431,859 $ 27,371,523 $ 28,009,161 Overall Expenditure Growth (not including interfund transfers) 9% 8% 7% 10% 3% 1% 0% 2% Overall Expenditure Growth (includes interfund transfers) 10% 7% 8% 5% 4% 0% -1% 2% Expenditures Per Capita Less Transfers $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, Transfers (In/Out) other Sources Transfers In $ 571,635 $ 1,340,146 $ 1,707,209 $ 505,100 $ 1,116,400 $ 1,173,422 $ 506,100 $ 200,100 Transfers out $ 1,315,000 $ 1,203,500 $ 1,625,000 $ 665,000 $ 892,000 $ 483,000 $ 160,000 $ 160,000 Claims/Settlements $ - $ 349,000 Total Transfers $ (743,365) $ (212,354) $ 82,209 $ (159,900) $ 224,400 $ 690,422 $ 346,100 $ 40,100 Total Revenues (all sources) $ 22,742,111 $ 25,034,188 $ 26,764,933 $ 26,871,560 $ 27,412,831 $ 27,788,691 $ 27,768,449 $ 28,180,969 Total Expenditure (all sources) $ 22,047,159 $ 23,548,751 $ 25,480,623 $ 26,871,560 $ 27,922,719 $ 27,914,859 $ 27,531,523 $ 28,169,161 Surplus/(deficit) - includes transfers in/out effect $ 694,952 $ 1,485,437 $ 1,284,310 $ - $ (509,888) $ (126,168) $ 236,926 $ 11,808 Debt Outlay Analysis Maximum debt outlay annually within Policy 1 $ 3,059,954 $ 3,290,576 $ 3,594,366 $ 3,730,320 $ 3,724,263 $ 3,733,433 $ 3,600,768 $ 3,708,632 Retiring Debt from previous year $ 148,399 $ 116,481 $ 331,677 $ 26,461 $ 26,366 $ 24,669 Existing Long-term Debt $ 1,647,464 $ 1,611,580 $ 1,463,181 $ 1,346,700 $ 1,015,024 $ 988,562 $ 962,196 $ 937,528 New CIP Debt Service $ - $ - $ 53,642 $ 656,060 $ 2,079,274 $ 2,036,739 $ 2,564,203 $ 2,507,417 Total Long-term Debt Service (including New Debt) $ 1,647,464 $ 1,611,580 $ 1,516,823 $ 2,002,760 $ 3,094,298 $ 3,025,301 $ 3,526,399 $ 3,444,945 Debt outlay as % of prior year expenditures indicates Debt Service Ratio Performance Indicator the service flexibility within the amount of expenditures committed to annual debt service. 15% or higher exceeds Town Policy. 7.95% 7.21% 6.36% 7.64% 11.45% 11.03% 12.88% 12.30% 84

13 actual 2012 actual 2013 estimated actual 2014 proposed 2015 forecast 2016 forecast 2017 forecast 2018 forecast 2019 Tax Rate Analysis Current and Projected Tax Rate Tax Base $ 3,381,598,636 $ 3,521,406,350 $ 3,612,522,538 $ 3,702,835,601 $ 3,795,406,491 $ 3,833,360,556 $ 3,910,027,768 $ 4,007,778,462 Tax Base Growth 1.37% 4.13% 2.59% 2.50% 2.50% 1.00% 2.00% 2.50% Population 18,700 19,406 20,164 22,260 22,928 23,616 24,088 24,570 Per Penny $ 340,543 $ 353,281 $ 369,171 $ 372,739 $ 381,844 $ 385,634 $ 393,292 $ 403,055 Expenditures Per Capita $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, Fund Balance Analysis - CAFR Exhibit 5 Beginning Total Fund Balance $ 11,381,376 $ 12,076,324 $ 13,212,761 $ 14,497,071 $ 13,845,611 $ 13,335,723 $ 13,209,555 $ 13,446,482 Revenues based on Current Tax Rate $ 22,170,476 $ 23,694,042 $ 25,057,724 $ 25,715,000 $ 26,296,431 $ 26,615,269 $ 27,262,349 $ 27,980,869 Expenditures with New CIP $ 20,732,159 $ 22,345,252 $ 23,855,623 $ 26,206,560 $ 27,030,719 $ 27,431,859 $ 27,371,523 $ 28,009,161 Surplus/(deficit) $ 694,952 $ 1,136,436 $ 1,284,310 $ (651,460) $ (509,888) $ (126,168) $ 236,926 $ 11,808 Assigned Fund Balance actual or assumption $ 3,028,571 $ 3,285,067 $ 3,254, $ 3,298, $ 3,210, $ 3,065, $ 2,906, $ 2,969, Prior Period Adjustment Assigned/Unassigned $ 12,076,324 $ 13,212,761 $ 14,497,071 $ 13,845,611 $ 13,335,723 $ 13,209,555 $ 13,446,482 $ 13,458,290 Capital Reserve Fund Balance $ 1,217,293 $ 1,190,372 $ 496,719 $ 746,719 $ 600,389 $ 67 $ 50,067 $ 100,067 Assigned / Unassigned Fund Balance including Capital Reserve Fund $ 13,293,616 $ 14,403,133 $ 14,993,790 $ 14,592,330 $ 13,936,112 $ 13,209,622 $ 13,496,549 $ 13,558,357 Unassigned Fund Balance $ 10,265,046 $ 11,118,066 $ 11,739,617 $ 11,293,696 $ 10,725,800 $ 10,143,678 $ 10,590,432 $ 10,589,116 Unassigned Fund Balance Performance Indicator Percentage of expenditures indicates Morrisville's ability to handle long-term obligations - 25% or less fails to meet Policy. Over 45% may indicate flexibility for onetime outlays % 49.76% 49.21% 43.09% 39.68% 36.98% 38.69% 37.81% Fund Balance High Policy 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% Fund Balance Low Policy 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% notes: 1 - Deficit inidicates potenital to use Fund Balance to balance revenues to expenditures, cut operations, or raise revneues / Surplus indicates revenues in excess of expenditures should current tax rate be held the same. 2 - Change in Fund Balance Reporting can limit year to year comparison in previous years. 3 - Current year estimates include encumbrance assumptions that by June 30th may become part of the Purchase Order Rollover required by financial reporting, affecting assumptions used to forecast Fund Balance. 4 - Unassigned Fund Balance assumptions are long projections, in that estimates must span over a two year period. Should any one varible change it can radically alter the assumptions overall. However estimates are procduced to reasonibly understand potential impacts of budgetary decisions. 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 49.5% Unassigned Fund Balance 49.8% 49.2% 43.1% 39.7% 37.0% 38.7% 37.8% 14.00% Debt Ratio 12.00% 10.00% 11.45% 11.03% 8.00% 6.00% 7.95% 7.21% 7.64% 6.36% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% 12.88% 12.30% Unassigned Fund Balance Performance Indicator Fund Balance High Policy Fund Balance Low Policy 85

14 This page intentionally left blank 86

GENERAL FUND AND PUBLIC SAFETY FUND PROJECTION

GENERAL FUND AND PUBLIC SAFETY FUND PROJECTION 2015 Charter Township of West Bloomfield Finance Department GENERAL FUND AND PUBLIC SAFETY FUND PROJECTION Fiscal Years Ended December 31, 2015 through 2024 Contents Finance Director s Report 3 Historical

More information

CITY OF ALEXANDRIA, VIRGINIA FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT SELF-ASSESSMENT USING STANDARD AND POORS RATING CRITERIA. June 2009

CITY OF ALEXANDRIA, VIRGINIA FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT SELF-ASSESSMENT USING STANDARD AND POORS RATING CRITERIA. June 2009 CITY OF ALEXANDRIA, VIRGINIA FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT SELF-ASSESSMENT USING STANDARD AND POORS RATING CRITERIA June 2009 Revenue and Expenditure Assumptions Are the organization s financial assumptions and

More information

Executive Summary. Model Structure. General Economic Environment and Assumptions

Executive Summary. Model Structure. General Economic Environment and Assumptions Executive Summary The (LTFP) report is an update from the preliminary report presented in January 2009 and reflects the Mayor s Proposed Budget for Fiscal Year 2010 and Fiscal Year 2011. Details of the

More information

Liquidity Ratio General Fund

Liquidity Ratio General Fund Liquidity Ratio General Fund The liquidity ratio, also known as the "cash ratio", measures our ability to pay off current liabilities with cash and short-term investments. Current liabilities are the amounts

More information

Cities, counties, and other local

Cities, counties, and other local SOLUTIONS Long-Term Financial Forecasting for Local Governments By Christopher J. Swanson Too many jurisdictions have found out the hard way what can happen in the absence of a realistic forecast model.

More information

Five Year Financial Plan

Five Year Financial Plan The Five Year Financial Plan is a forecast of revenues and expenditures that begins with the adopted annual budget for the upcoming fiscal year (FY16) and continues for four additional years (through FY20).

More information

Massachusetts Department of Revenue. Briefing Book FY2015 Consensus Revenue Estimate Hearing. December 11, 2013. Presented by: Amy Pitter COMMISSIONER

Massachusetts Department of Revenue. Briefing Book FY2015 Consensus Revenue Estimate Hearing. December 11, 2013. Presented by: Amy Pitter COMMISSIONER Massachusetts Department of Revenue Briefing Book FY2015 Consensus Revenue Estimate Hearing December 11, 2013 Presented by: Amy Pitter COMMISSIONER Kazim P. Ozyurt DIRECTOR OFFICE OF TAX POLICY ANALYSIS

More information

City Council Budget Worksession

City Council Budget Worksession City Council Budget Worksession Agenda and Materials December 19, 2013 Basement Conference Room, 6:00 8:00PM 1. FY 2015 Budget Process Update 2. FY 2015-2019 Revenue and Expenditure Projections and Long

More information

Forecast Scenarios MULTI-YEAR REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE PROJECTIONS. Five-Year Financial Plan

Forecast Scenarios MULTI-YEAR REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE PROJECTIONS. Five-Year Financial Plan MULTI-YEAR REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE PROJECTIONS Five-Year Financial Plan The City is in the process of developing a multi-year plan for financial sustainability to identify future expenditure needs and

More information

CITY OF CHESAPEAKE ORGANIZATION

CITY OF CHESAPEAKE ORGANIZATION CITY OF CHESAPEAKE ORGANIZATION The City of Chesapeake derives its governing authority from a Charter granted by the General Assembly of the Commonwealth of Virginia. The City is organized under a Council-Manager

More information

5 Year Financial Trend Report. FINANCIAL CONDITION ANALYSIS For the Five Year Period of FY2007-2008 through FY2011-2012

5 Year Financial Trend Report. FINANCIAL CONDITION ANALYSIS For the Five Year Period of FY2007-2008 through FY2011-2012 5 Year Financial Trend Report FINANCIAL CONDITION ANALYSIS For the Five Year Period of FY2007-2008 through FY2011-2012 Report Date: January 2013 Financial Condition Analysis Page 0 INTRODUCTION Financial

More information

Distinguished Budget Presentation Awards Program Government Finance Officers Association. Awards Criteria (and explanations of the Criteria)

Distinguished Budget Presentation Awards Program Government Finance Officers Association. Awards Criteria (and explanations of the Criteria) 1 Distinguished Budget Presentation Awards Program Government Finance Officers Association Awards Criteria (and explanations of the Criteria) #C1. Mandatory: The document shall include a table of contents

More information

Tipp City Exempted Village Schools. Miami County

Tipp City Exempted Village Schools. Miami County Tipp City Exempted Village Schools Miami County Assumptions for Five-Year Financial Forecast Projected Fiscal years July 1, 2014 through June 30, 2019 Forecast provided by: Tipp City Exempted Village School

More information

Budget Introduction Proposed Budget

Budget Introduction Proposed Budget Budget Introduction Proposed Budget INTRO - 1 INTRO - 2 Summary of the Budget and Accounting Structure The City of Beverly Hills uses the same basis for budgeting as for accounting. Governmental fund financial

More information

Policy Brief June 2010

Policy Brief June 2010 Policy Brief June 2010 Pension Tension: Understanding Arizona s Public Employee Retirement Plans The Arizona Chamber Foundation (501(c)3) is a non-partisan, objective educational and research foundation.

More information

LONG TERM OBLIGATION (LTO) FINANCING POLICY A Strategy for the Acquisition or Replacement of City Assets

LONG TERM OBLIGATION (LTO) FINANCING POLICY A Strategy for the Acquisition or Replacement of City Assets PURPOSE CITY OF LINDSBORG LONG TERM OBLIGATION (LTO) FINANCING POLICY A Strategy for the Acquisition or Replacement of City Assets The Long-Term Obligation Financing (LTO) Policy Statement sets forth comprehensive

More information

Fiscal Year 2015 Integrated Financial Plan. 2015 Operating Plan 2015 Capital Plan 2015 Financing Plan

Fiscal Year 2015 Integrated Financial Plan. 2015 Operating Plan 2015 Capital Plan 2015 Financing Plan Fiscal Year Integrated Financial Operating Capital Financing EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Despite the ongoing efforts A Deep Financial Hole (as of September 30, ) of the Postal Service to Liabilities exceed assets

More information

Technical Memorandum REVENUE FORECASTS. Prepared for: Prepared by:

Technical Memorandum REVENUE FORECASTS. Prepared for: Prepared by: Technical Memorandum REVENUE FORECASTS Prepared for: Prepared by: April 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Introduction... 1 1.1 Inflation Indices... 2 1.2 Previous Studies... 3 2 Highway Revenue Baseline Forecast...

More information

City of Mt. Angel. Comprehensive Financial Management Policies

City of Mt. Angel. Comprehensive Financial Management Policies City of Mt. Angel Comprehensive Financial Management Policies May 2014 Table of Contents Section Description Page I. Purpose... 3 II. Objectives... 3 III. Management of Fiscal Policy... 4 IV. Accounting,

More information

Five-Year Financial Plan

Five-Year Financial Plan 2014 City of Yakima Five-Year Financial Plan Presented to City Council January 21, 2014 To: From: Subject: The Honorable Mayor and Members of City Council Tony O Rourke, City Manager Cindy Epperson, Director

More information

HOW TO READ A FIVE-YEAR FORECAST. Tips and Explanations on Understanding a School District s Forecast

HOW TO READ A FIVE-YEAR FORECAST. Tips and Explanations on Understanding a School District s Forecast HOW TO READ A FIVE-YEAR FORECAST Tips and Explanations on Understanding a School District s Forecast INTRODUCTION Recognizing the importance of discussing school district finances, the Ohio Department

More information

FY 2017 EXECUTIVE SUPPLEMENTAL BUDGET MULTI-YEAR FINANCIAL PLAN

FY 2017 EXECUTIVE SUPPLEMENTAL BUDGET MULTI-YEAR FINANCIAL PLAN 28th Legislature 2016 A CASE OF INFLATED REVENUES AND UNDERESTIMATED EXPENDITURES This report provides a comprehensive review of the FY 2017 Executive Supplemental Budget: Multi-Year Financial Summary

More information

MACROECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS VALUATION PROCESS

MACROECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS VALUATION PROCESS MACROECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS VALUATION PROCESS BUSINESS ANALYSIS INTRODUCTION To determine a proper price for a firm s stock, security analyst must forecast the dividend & earnings that can be expected

More information

Working Document Committee of the Whole March 25, 2014

Working Document Committee of the Whole March 25, 2014 Working Document Committee of the Whole March 25, 2014 Introduction The 5-Year Budget is a working document. It is frequently being fine-tuned to take more details into account and updated as assumptions

More information

NEW PHILADELPHIA CITY SCHOOLS FIVE-YEAR FORECAST 2013-2017

NEW PHILADELPHIA CITY SCHOOLS FIVE-YEAR FORECAST 2013-2017 Real Estate Tax Assumptions NEW PHILADELPHIA CITY SCHOOLS FIVE-YEAR FORECAST 2013-2017 REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS Real estate taxes had increased at approximately 1.1% to 2.0% through 2012 and a 1.5% increase

More information

Statement of Estimated General Fund Balance

Statement of Estimated General Fund Balance Commitments and Assignments in the Proposed Fiscal Year 2014 Budget The fiscal year 2014 Operating Budget contains the following commitments and assignments of fund balances estimated to be available as

More information

Comprehensive Financial Management Policies. Adopted March 13, 2006. Created on 8/9/2005 6:46 PM 1

Comprehensive Financial Management Policies. Adopted March 13, 2006. Created on 8/9/2005 6:46 PM 1 Comprehensive Financial Management Policies Adopted March 13, 2006 Created on 8/9/2005 6:46 PM 1 Comprehensive Financial Management Policies Index I. Financial Philosophy II. Organization III. Financial

More information

Budget and Five Year Financial Plan Update Presentation to CBO Taskforce. April 8, 2013

Budget and Five Year Financial Plan Update Presentation to CBO Taskforce. April 8, 2013 Budget and Five Year Financial Plan Update Presentation to CBO Taskforce April 8, 2013 1 Agenda Financial Policies Goals of the Five-Year Financial Plan Key Assumptions General Fund Base Case Proposed

More information

The City of Houston s Finances Is Now The Time To Raise Property Taxes?

The City of Houston s Finances Is Now The Time To Raise Property Taxes? The City of Houston s Finances Is Now The Time To Raise Property Taxes? September 9, 2015 No. 2 Greater Houston Partnership Municipal Finance Task Force Overview On July 24, 2015, the Greater Houston Partnership

More information

City of Missoula Debt Management. Major Bond Issues. Outstanding Debt DEBT MANAGEMENT. City of Missoula FY 2015 Annual Budget Page I - 1

City of Missoula Debt Management. Major Bond Issues. Outstanding Debt DEBT MANAGEMENT. City of Missoula FY 2015 Annual Budget Page I - 1 City of Missoula Debt Management Debt in a governmental entity is an effective financial management tool. Active debt management provides fiscal advantages to the City of Missoula and its citizens. Debt

More information

TOWN OF MANCHESTER, MARYLAND. FINANCIAL STATEMENTS June 30, 2015

TOWN OF MANCHESTER, MARYLAND. FINANCIAL STATEMENTS June 30, 2015 FINANCIAL STATEMENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE INDEPENDENT AUDITORS REPORT... 1 MANAGEMENT S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS... 3 FINANCIAL STATEMENTS... 13 Government wide Financial Statements Statement of Net Position...14

More information

City of Portsmouth Budget

City of Portsmouth Budget ACCRUAL BASIS: regardless of the timing of the related cash flows, this is an accounting method recognizing the financial effect of transactions, events, and interfund activities upon occurrence. AMORTIZATION:

More information

Fiscal Year 2015 Integrated Financial Plan

Fiscal Year 2015 Integrated Financial Plan Fiscal Year Integrated Financial Operating Capital Financing Integrated Financial EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Unaudited - A Deep Financial Hole (as of September 30, 2014) Liabilities exceed assets by approximately

More information

COMPREHENSIVE FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT POLICY Adopted April 18, 2011 Adopted Revision December 19, 2011 Adopted Revision February 24, 2014

COMPREHENSIVE FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT POLICY Adopted April 18, 2011 Adopted Revision December 19, 2011 Adopted Revision February 24, 2014 COMPREHENSIVE FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT POLICY Adopted April 18, 2011 Adopted Revision December 19, 2011 Adopted Revision February 24, 2014 ORIGIN The City s 2030 Vision and Strategic Plan calls for the establishment

More information

The Art and Science of Multi-Year Financial Projections

The Art and Science of Multi-Year Financial Projections The Art and Science of Multi-Year Financial Projections September 2, 2015 Public Financial Management, Inc. 99 Summer Street Suite 1020 Boston, MA 02110 Phone: 617-330-6914 www.pfm.com 10 Weybosset Street

More information

Financial Plan 10 C H A P T E R 3 INTRODUCTION PAST FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE COMPARATIVE FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

Financial Plan 10 C H A P T E R 3 INTRODUCTION PAST FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE COMPARATIVE FINANCIAL STATEMENTS Financial Plan 10 C H A P T E R 3 INTRODUCTION This chapter was prepared by FCS GROUP to provide a financial program that allows the water utility to remain financially viable during the planning period.

More information

REPORT OF THE MAINE STATE REVENUE FORECASTING COMMITTEE

REPORT OF THE MAINE STATE REVENUE FORECASTING COMMITTEE REPORT OF THE MAINE STATE REVENUE FORECASTING COMMITTEE December 2013 Michael Allen, Chair Associate Commissioner for Tax Policy James Breece University of Maine System Melissa Gott State Budget Officer

More information

Financial Planning and Community Investment

Financial Planning and Community Investment Financial Planning and Community Investment Background Materials Provided for Discussion City Council Study Session Feb 2, 2016 Study Session The City s Roles and Responsibilities In 1965, the City was

More information

The Art and Science of Multi-Year Financial Projections

The Art and Science of Multi-Year Financial Projections The Art and Science of Multi-Year Financial Projections April 27, 2015 Public Financial Management, Inc. Two Logan Square, Suite 1600 18th & Arch Streets Philadelphia, PA 19103 phone: 215-567-6100 www.pfm.com

More information

CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE, VIRGINIA CITY COUNCIL AGENDA

CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE, VIRGINIA CITY COUNCIL AGENDA CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE, VIRGINIA CITY COUNCIL AGENDA Agenda Date: November 15, 2010 Action Required: Staff Contacts: Presented By: Title: Discussion and Approval of FY 2012 Budget Guidelines, Consideration

More information

Province of Newfoundland and Labrador. Public Accounts Volume I Consolidated Summary Financial Statements

Province of Newfoundland and Labrador. Public Accounts Volume I Consolidated Summary Financial Statements Province of Newfoundland and Labrador Public Accounts Volume I Consolidated Summary Financial Statements FOR THE YEAR ENDED MARCH 31, 2011 Province of Newfoundland and Labrador Public Accounts Volume I

More information

AD VALOREM TAX ADOPTED BUDGET

AD VALOREM TAX ADOPTED BUDGET AD VALOREM TAX ADOPTED BUDGET AGGREGATE TAX RATE AMENDMENT APPROPRIATION ASSESSED VALUE BALANCE FORWARD BALANCE FORWARD - CAPITAL A tax levied on the assessed value of real property (also known as "property

More information

City of Charlottesville Preliminary Projected Budget and Long Term Forecast General Fund Fiscal Year 2017-2021

City of Charlottesville Preliminary Projected Budget and Long Term Forecast General Fund Fiscal Year 2017-2021 1 1/20/2016 City of Charlottesville Preliminary Budget and Long Term Forecast General Fund Fiscal Year 2017-2021 General Fund Revenues FY2016 Adopted FY2016 Revised * FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021

More information

Expenditure Accounting: Governmental Funds. Chapter 6

Expenditure Accounting: Governmental Funds. Chapter 6 Expenditure Accounting: Governmental Funds Chapter 6 Learning Objectives Define expenditures Understand & apply expenditure recognition guidance Understand multiple classifications of expenditures Account

More information

FY 2012 & FY 2013 Proposed Balancing Measures. March 22, 2010

FY 2012 & FY 2013 Proposed Balancing Measures. March 22, 2010 FY 2012 & FY 2013 Proposed Balancing Measures March 22, 2010 1 Introduction National Economic Recovery - Slow General Fund - FY 12 ($3M) FY 13 ($4M) Special Funds ($9.5M) Federal Budget proposed cuts to

More information

DISTRICT OF NORTH VANCOUVER GUIDE TO FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

DISTRICT OF NORTH VANCOUVER GUIDE TO FINANCIAL STATEMENTS DISTRICT OF NORTH VANCOUVER GUIDE TO FINANCIAL STATEMENTS DISTRICT OF NORTH VANCOUVER Our goal at North Vancouver District is to make information sharing and reporting convenient, accessible and relevant

More information

City of San Diego General Fund Reserve Benchmark and Review

City of San Diego General Fund Reserve Benchmark and Review OFFICE OF THE INDEPENDENT BUDGET ANALYST REPORT Date Issued: September 20, 2012 IBA Report Number: 12-37 Budget and Finance Committee Date: September 26, 2012 Item Number: 5 City of San Diego General Fund

More information

2015-2016 Preliminary Budget. 2015-2020 General Fund 6-Year Forecast Detail

2015-2016 Preliminary Budget. 2015-2020 General Fund 6-Year Forecast Detail Executive Summary: The 2015-2020 forecast shows recovery, with growth back to the 15 percent fund balance level by 2019 at staffing levels based on the 2015-2016 Preliminary Budget. 2014 revenues continue

More information

Integrated Financial Plan FY2012

Integrated Financial Plan FY2012 Integrated Financial FY Delivering The new reality The fiscal year Integrated Financial (IFP) has an Operating with a projected Operating Loss of $3.0 billion, versus a loss of $2.2 billion in, despite

More information

The following reports were prepared independent of the

The following reports were prepared independent of the september 2012 173 APPENDIX H Independent Analysis of Economic Forecasts and Sales Tax Revenue The following reports were prepared independent of the Wake County Transit Plan, but are included here for

More information

The long-term projections of federal revenues and

The long-term projections of federal revenues and APPENDIX B Changes in s Long-Term Projections Since July 214 The long-term projections of federal revenues and outlays presented in this report are generally similar to the ones that the Congressional

More information

Ingersoll Long Range Financial Plan (LRFP) Facilitated Session. Purpose of Session. Introduction to Long Range Financial Plan

Ingersoll Long Range Financial Plan (LRFP) Facilitated Session. Purpose of Session. Introduction to Long Range Financial Plan Ingersoll Long Range Financial Plan (LRFP) Facilitated Session Purpose of Session Introduction to Long Range Financial Plan Review and Discuss Financial Condition Assessment and Draft Policies Review and

More information

Understanding Mississippi Property Taxes

Understanding Mississippi Property Taxes Understanding Mississippi Property Taxes The Mississippi Association of Supervisors with the Center for Governmental Training and Technology Mississippi Property Tax Primer Property tax revenues are a

More information

TABLE OF CONTENTS CENTRAL SERVICES FUND

TABLE OF CONTENTS CENTRAL SERVICES FUND TABLE OF CONTENTS Central Services Fund Overview... 83 Income Summary with Requirements by Department and by Category... 83 Central Services Fund Resources... 84 Central Services Fund Resources Allocation

More information

City of Surprise, Arizona Comprehensive Financial Management Policies Effective July 1, 2015

City of Surprise, Arizona Comprehensive Financial Management Policies Effective July 1, 2015 City of Surprise, Arizona Comprehensive Financial Management Policies Effective July 1, 2015 Introduction The City Council s Strategic Plan Framework, goals and objectives provide the foundation for the

More information

State of Alaska Public Employees Retirement System

State of Alaska Public Employees Retirement System Public Employees Retirement System Actuarial Valuation Report as of June 30, 2005 Submitted By: Buck Consultants 1200 Seventeenth Street, Suite 1200 Denver, CO 80202 September 15, 2006 Alaska Retirement

More information

Table of Contents. WATER AND WASTEWATER MODEL AND SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS 6 Model Development 6 10-Year Water/WW - Challenges, Risks and Opportunities 7

Table of Contents. WATER AND WASTEWATER MODEL AND SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS 6 Model Development 6 10-Year Water/WW - Challenges, Risks and Opportunities 7 Table of Contents LONG-RANGE FINANCIAL PLAN INTRODUCTION 1 Water and Wastewater Financial Plan 2 What is a Long Range Financial Plan 3 Importance of a Long Range Financial Plan 4 General Approach to Preparing

More information

State. 2011 Report. Prepared by. December 2011. Page 1

State. 2011 Report. Prepared by. December 2011. Page 1 State of Florida 2011 Debt Affordability Report Prepared by The Division of Bond Finance December 2011 Page 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary... 1 Introduction... 4 Composition of Outstanding Florida

More information

Comprehensive Long Term Financial Plan 1

Comprehensive Long Term Financial Plan 1 Comprehensive Long Term Financial Plan 1 Table of Contents Table of Contents... 2 Highlights... 4 Introduction... 5 Purpose of the Long-term Financial Plan... 5 The Planning Process... 5 Mission, Vision,

More information

City Budget - A Glossary of Useful Terms

City Budget - A Glossary of Useful Terms 26 SECTION 26 Glossary 273 Glossary Account - The primary accounting field in the budget used to describe the type of the financial transaction. Actual - Actual level of expenditures/fte positions approved

More information

Three-Year Financial Plan

Three-Year Financial Plan Three-Year Financial Plan Fiscal years ending June 30, 2016 through June 30, 2018 February 24, 2015 Community College District No. 532 Grayslake, Illinois COLLEGE OF LAKE COUNTY COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT

More information

City of Surprise, Arizona Comprehensive Financial Management Policies FY 2013

City of Surprise, Arizona Comprehensive Financial Management Policies FY 2013 City of Surprise, Arizona Comprehensive Financial Management Policies FY 2013 Introduction The City Council s Strategic Plan Framework, goals and objectives provide the foundation for the comprehensive

More information

Long Range Financial Forecasting for School

Long Range Financial Forecasting for School DOCUMENT RESUME ED 111 069 EA 007 437 AUTHOR Baker, Michael E. TITLE Long Range Financial Forecasting for School Districts. INSTITUTION Carnegie-Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, Pa. Educational Management Development

More information

DEBT MANAGEMENT. Debt Service Fund... 186 Leasing Fund... 190 Leasing Equipment Acquisition Fund... 191

DEBT MANAGEMENT. Debt Service Fund... 186 Leasing Fund... 190 Leasing Equipment Acquisition Fund... 191 DEBT MANAGEMENT Debt Service Fund... 186 Leasing Fund... 190 Leasing Equipment Acquisition Fund... 191 185 DEBT SERVICE FUND PROGRAM DESCRIPTIONS Debt service expenditures include the City s general governmental

More information

PROJECTION OF THE FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT (2012 2027) - SUMMARY

PROJECTION OF THE FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT (2012 2027) - SUMMARY PROJECTION OF THE FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT (2012 2027) - SUMMARY PUBLIC FINANCE REVIEW February 2013 SUMMARY Key messages The purpose of our analysis is to highlight the risks that fiscal policy

More information

LIST OF MAJOR LEADING & LAGGING ECONOMIC INDICATORS

LIST OF MAJOR LEADING & LAGGING ECONOMIC INDICATORS APRIL 2014 LIST OF MAJOR LEADING & LAGGING ECONOMIC INDICATORS Most economists talk about where the economy is headed it s what they do. Paying attention to economic indicators can give you an idea of

More information

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE CBO. An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025. Defense 2.7 3.3 2.2 2.

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE CBO. An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025. Defense 2.7 3.3 2.2 2. CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025 Percentage of GDP Major Health Care Programs Mandatory Spending Social Security Other

More information

DEPT: EMPLOYEE FRINGE BENEFITS UNIT NO. 1950 FUND: General - 0001. Approximate Tax Levy Cost, Employee & Retiree Fringe Benefits: $138,193,986

DEPT: EMPLOYEE FRINGE BENEFITS UNIT NO. 1950 FUND: General - 0001. Approximate Tax Levy Cost, Employee & Retiree Fringe Benefits: $138,193,986 BUDGET SUMMARY 2012 Actual 2013 Budget 2014 Budget 2013/2014 Change Health Benefit Expenditures $ 113,308,978 $ 118,502,180 $ 118,676,177 $ 173,997 Pension Related Expenditures 64,388,961 66,724,779 65,198,296

More information

GENERAL FUND. FY14 General Fund Revenues/Financing Sources TOTAL APPROVED = $339,071,600. Property Taxes $201,088,000 59.3% REVENUE BREAKDOWN

GENERAL FUND. FY14 General Fund Revenues/Financing Sources TOTAL APPROVED = $339,071,600. Property Taxes $201,088,000 59.3% REVENUE BREAKDOWN GENERAL FUND A general fund is used to account for financial transactions associated with government services which are not legally required to be accounted for in a special fund, or are not part of self-supporting

More information

Glossary of Assessment Terms:

Glossary of Assessment Terms: Glossary of Assessment Terms: Abatement A reduction or elimination of a tax or charge imposed by a governmental unit, applicable to property tax bills, motor vehicle excise taxes, fees, charges, and special

More information

City of Minneapolis 2014 Budget. Financial Plans

City of Minneapolis 2014 Budget. Financial Plans City of Minneapolis Financial Plans The schedules that follow contain the Financial Plans for the major funds of the City. Detailed financial plans are included for the following major funds, listed below.

More information

TOWN OF PROSPECT, CONNECTICUT

TOWN OF PROSPECT, CONNECTICUT BASIC FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION FOR THE YEAR ENDED JUNE 30, 2015 ANNUAL REPORT FOR THE YEAR ENDED JUNE 30, 2015 Table of Contents Independent Auditor's Report 4 Management's Discussion

More information

DEAN H. SEKI COMPTROLLER

DEAN H. SEKI COMPTROLLER COMPREHENSIVE ANNUAL FINANCIAL REPORT FOR THE FISCAL YEAR ENDED JUNE 30, 2013 DEAN H. SEKI COMPTROLLER HAWAII COMPREHENSIVE ANNUAL FINANCIAL REPORT FOR THE FISCAL YEAR ENDED JUNE 30, 2013 Prepared by Accounting

More information

Fiscal impact analysis of three development scenarios in Nashville-Davidson County, TN

Fiscal impact analysis of three development scenarios in Nashville-Davidson County, TN Fiscal impact analysis of three development scenarios in Nashville-Davidson County, TN April 2013 Prepared by 1 SUMMARY BY SMART GROWTH AMERICA Summary This study examines the relative fiscal costs and

More information

FITCH RATES METROPOLITAN WATER RECLAMATION DIST OF GREATER CHICAGO, IL GOS 'AAA'; OUTLOOK STABLE

FITCH RATES METROPOLITAN WATER RECLAMATION DIST OF GREATER CHICAGO, IL GOS 'AAA'; OUTLOOK STABLE FITCH RATES METROPOLITAN WATER RECLAMATION DIST OF GREATER CHICAGO, IL GOS 'AAA'; OUTLOOK STABLE Fitch Ratings-New York-03 December 2014: Fitch Ratings has assigned an 'AAA' rating to the following Metropolitan

More information

Preservation projects. Programmatic projects. Grant projects.

Preservation projects. Programmatic projects. Grant projects. A capital project is a project to construct either new facilities or make significant, long-term renewal improvements to existing facilities. A capital project using general obligation bonds usually has

More information

DEBT MANAGEMENT POLICY

DEBT MANAGEMENT POLICY Introduction New Hanover County recognizes that a formal debt policy is essential to effective financial management. Adherence to a debt management policy signals to rating agencies and the capital markets

More information

Comprehensive Financial Management Policies

Comprehensive Financial Management Policies 14110 ATTACHMENT A Comprehensive Financial Management Policies Office of Performance, Strategy and Budget April 14, 2014 14110 ATTACHMENT A Comprehensive Financial Management Policies Table of Contents

More information

Developing and adopting budgets

Developing and adopting budgets BEST PRACTICES Budgeting for Sustainability A Florida Perspective By Linda C. Davidson Local governments need to react in the short term by providing current budget solutions, but also by developing the

More information

EASTLAND FAIRFIELD CAREER & TECHNICAL SCHOOLS FRANKLIN COUNTY SINGLE AUDIT

EASTLAND FAIRFIELD CAREER & TECHNICAL SCHOOLS FRANKLIN COUNTY SINGLE AUDIT EASTLAND FAIRFIELD CAREER & TECHNICAL SCHOOLS FRANKLIN COUNTY SINGLE AUDIT FOR THE YEAR ENDED JUNE 30, 2014 EASTLAND-FAIRFIELD CAREER AND TECHNICAL SCHOOLS FRANKLIN COUNTY TABLE OF CONTENTS TITLE PAGE

More information

2008/09 Financial Management Strategy

2008/09 Financial Management Strategy 2008/09 Financial Management Strategy Report on outcomes For more information visit www.manitoba.ca R e p o r t o n O u t c o m e s / 1 Report on Outcomes Budget 2008 set out the second Financial Management

More information

SOUTH CAROLINA APPALACHIAN COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS AUDITED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS YEAR ENDED JUNE 30, 2012

SOUTH CAROLINA APPALACHIAN COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS AUDITED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS YEAR ENDED JUNE 30, 2012 SOUTH CAROLINA APPALACHIAN COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS AUDITED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS YEAR ENDED JUNE 30, 2012 SOUTH CAROLINA APPALACHIAN COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS AUDITED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS YEAR ENDED JUNE 30,

More information

A Report from the Office of the University Economist. March 2010

A Report from the Office of the University Economist. March 2010 ROADMAP TO ARIZONA S ECONOMIC RECOVERY: A PACKAGE TO CREATE JOBS, IMPROVE THE STATE S ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS, AND BALANCE THE BUDGET ADDENDUM: REVENUE FORECAST DETAILS A Report from the Office of the

More information

The following document was not prepared by the Office of the State Auditor, but was prepared by and submitted to the Office of the State Auditor by a

The following document was not prepared by the Office of the State Auditor, but was prepared by and submitted to the Office of the State Auditor by a The following document was not prepared by the Office of the State Auditor, but was prepared by and submitted to the Office of the State Auditor by a private CPA firm. The document was placed on this web

More information

Adopted Budget: The budget formally adopted by the Board of Commissioners for the upcoming fiscal year.

Adopted Budget: The budget formally adopted by the Board of Commissioners for the upcoming fiscal year. 289 Accrual Basis of Accounting: The primary basis of recording assets, liabilities, revenues, and expenses for a government s business-like activities. Under the accrual basis, revenues are recognized

More information

The Future of U.S. Health Care Spending Conference, April 11, 2014

The Future of U.S. Health Care Spending Conference, April 11, 2014 The Future of U.S. Health Care Spending Conference, April 11, 2014 The Potential Impact of Alternative Health Care Spending Scenarios on Future State and Local Government Budgets Author: Donald Boyd, Rockefeller

More information

The City of Owen Sound Asset Management Plan

The City of Owen Sound Asset Management Plan The City of Owen Sound Asset Management Plan December 013 Adopted by Council March 4, 014 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 1 INTRODUCTION....1 Vision.... What is Asset Management?....3 Link to

More information

EUGENE CITY COUNCIL AGENDA ITEM SUMMARY

EUGENE CITY COUNCIL AGENDA ITEM SUMMARY EUGENE CITY COUNCIL AGENDA ITEM SUMMARY Public Hearing and Action: A Resolution Adopting the Budget, Making Appropriations, Determining, Levying and Categorizing the Annual Ad Valorem Property Tax Levy

More information

Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation

Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation August 2014 Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation The exhibits below are updated to reflect the current economic outlook for factors that typically impact

More information

REPORT ON FINANCIAL PLAN, COST OF SERVICE AND RATES WATER AND SEWER OPERATING FUND

REPORT ON FINANCIAL PLAN, COST OF SERVICE AND RATES WATER AND SEWER OPERATING FUND REPORT ON FINANCIAL PLAN, COST OF SERVICE AND RATES WATER AND SEWER OPERATING FUND Harford County, Maryland APRIL 2016 Black & Veatch Holding Company 2011. All rights reserved. Harford County Report on

More information

DEBT MANAGEMENT POLICY AND PROPOSED CERTIFICATES OF PARTICIPATION (COPs) TRANSACTION

DEBT MANAGEMENT POLICY AND PROPOSED CERTIFICATES OF PARTICIPATION (COPs) TRANSACTION DEBT MANAGEMENT POLICY AND PROPOSED CERTIFICATES OF PARTICIPATION (COPs) TRANSACTION Los Angeles Unified School District Office of the Chief Financial Officer Background Since 1990, District has issued

More information

GREENUP COUNTY SCHOOL DISTRICT FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION

GREENUP COUNTY SCHOOL DISTRICT FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Independent Auditors' Report 1 Management s Discussion and Analysis 4 Basic Financial Statements: Statement of Net Position 8 Statement

More information

REPORT NO. 2012-156 MARCH 2012 GILCHRIST COUNTY DISTRICT SCHOOL BOARD. Financial, Operational, and Federal Single Audit

REPORT NO. 2012-156 MARCH 2012 GILCHRIST COUNTY DISTRICT SCHOOL BOARD. Financial, Operational, and Federal Single Audit REPORT NO. 2012-156 MARCH 2012 Financial, Operational, and Federal Single Audit For the Fiscal Year Ended June 30, 2011 BOARD MEMBERS AND SUPERINTENDENT Board members and the Superintendent who served

More information

COUNCIL POLICY NO. C-14

COUNCIL POLICY NO. C-14 COUNCIL POLICY NO. C-14 TITLE: POLICY: WATER AND SEWER FUND FINANCIAL POLICY See attached. REFERENCE: City Council Finance Committee Report dated March 17, 2014, Agenda Item No. 3.a; Public Works and Administrative

More information

GENERA L OBLIGATION DEBT SERVICE SUMMARY

GENERA L OBLIGATION DEBT SERVICE SUMMARY GENERA L OBLIGATION DEBT SERVICE SUMMARY General Obligation debt is secured by and payable from the receipts of annual ad valorem taxes, within legal limits, on taxable property within the City. The City

More information

2012 Census of Governments: Finance State and Local Government Summary Report

2012 Census of Governments: Finance State and Local Government Summary Report 2012 Census of Governments: Finance State and Local Government Summary Report Economy-Wide Statistics Briefs: Public Sector By Jeffrey L. Barnett, Cindy L. Sheckells, Scott Peterson, and Elizabeth M. Tydings

More information

CITY OF COLEMAN, TEXAS FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND INDEPENDENT AUDITOR'S REPORT SEPTEMBER 30, 2014

CITY OF COLEMAN, TEXAS FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND INDEPENDENT AUDITOR'S REPORT SEPTEMBER 30, 2014 CITY OF COLEMAN, TEXAS FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND INDEPENDENT AUDITOR'S REPORT SEPTEMBER 30, 2014 Becky Roberts, CPA 104 Pine Street, Suite 610 Abilene, Texas 79601 325-665-5239 becky.roberts@rm-cpa.net

More information

Three Year Forecast Revenues and Expenditures Enterprise Fund Water & Sewer

Three Year Forecast Revenues and Expenditures Enterprise Fund Water & Sewer $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 Three Year Forecast Revenues and Expenditures Enterprise Fund Water & Sewer 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Revenues Expenditures s 2010 through 2013 are estimated. ENTERPRISE

More information

Determination of Annual Increase in Educational and Related Course Enrollment Fees

Determination of Annual Increase in Educational and Related Course Enrollment Fees Draft Revised 4-10-01 Determination of Annual Increase in Educational and Related Course Enrollment Fees Introduction Establishing a policy for annually adjusting the charge for educational and related

More information

Department of Human Resources

Department of Human Resources Workforce Services Workforce Policy and Planning Department Management/ Human Resource Information Systems Employee Relations Employment Compensation and Workforce Analysis Employee Benefits Organizational

More information