Assessment of Commercial Revenues at Heathrow Airport

Transcription

1 Assessment of Commercial Revenues at Heathrow Airport Final Report Final March 2013 Prepared for: Ken Cheong Civil Aviation Authority, 45-59, Kingsway, London WC2B 6TE Prepared by: Steer Davies Gleave Upper Ground London SE1 9PD +44 (0)

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3 CONTENTS 1 NTRODUCTON... 1 Scope... 1 Background... 1 Remainder of this Final Report APPROACH... 5 Data... 5 Stakeholder nteraction... 6 Heathrow Airport Q6 FBP Commercial Revenue Forecasts... 7 Areas of Agreement and Disagreement... 9 Overview of Steer Davies Gleave Analysis RETAL Market Drivers of Recent Retail Performance Recent Annual Performance Trends Q5 Settlement versus Actuals Forecasting Approach for Retail in Q Q6 FBP Retail Revenue Forecasts Steer Davies Gleave Analysis of the Retail Forecasts Retail - Areas of Disagreement between Heathrow Airport and Airlines Steer Davies Gleave Q6 Retail Revenue mpact Assessment CAR PARKNG Market Drivers of Recent Car Parking Performance Recent Annual Performance Trends Forecasting Approach and Drivers for Car Parking in Q Q6 FBP Net Car Parking Revenue Forecasts Benchmarks Car Parking - Areas of Disagreement Steer Davies Gleave Q6 Car Parking Revenue mpact Assessment PROPERTY Market Drivers of Recent Property Performance Recent Annual Performance Trends Q5 Settlement versus Actuals Q6 FBP Property Revenue Forecasts Contents

4 Forecasting Approach and Drivers Review of Heathrow Airport Q6 Property Forecasts Property - Areas of Disagreement Steer Davies Gleave Q6 Property Revenue mpact Assessment SUMMARY OF STEER DAVES GLEAVE FORECASTS FGURES Figure 1.1 Heathrow Airport Retail & Property Revenue Mix, Figure 3.1 Global Duty and Tax Free Sales (Nominal Prices) Figure 3.2 Historical Retail Sales by Geographical Region (Nominal Prices).. 14 Figure 3.3 Heathrow Airport Retail Revenues per Rassenger (incl. Car Parking) Figure 3.4 Projected Total Duty Free Revenue per DL Space Figure 3.5 Projected Airside Specialist Shops Revenue per DL Space Figure 3.6 Comparative Catering Revenues per Departing Passenger Figure 3.7 Comparative Advertising Revenues per Departing Passenger Figure 3.8 Comparative Retail Revenues per Passenger at Heathrow and Gatwick Airports, 2011/ Figure 3.9 Heathrow Airport Duty Free Tobacco Sales Figure 4.1 Comparative Car Parking revenues per departing passenger Figure 5.1 Heathrow Airport Property Revenues per Passenger (Q5 Settlement versus Actuals, Nominal Prices) TABLES Table 2.1 RP Assumptions... 5 Table 2.2 Heathrow Airport Q6 Net Commercial ncome ( m, 2011/12 Prices)... 8 Table 2.3 Forecasts Comparison (FBP versus BP, m 2011/12 Prices)... 9 Table 2.4 Q6 Commercial Revenue Projections Areas of Disagreement... 9 Table 3.1 Table 3.2 Heathrow Airport Q5 Actual Net Retail ncome by Category ( m, 2011/12 Prices) Heathrow Airport Q5 Actual Net Retail ncome per Passenger ( m, 2011/12 Prices) Table 3.3 Composition of Concessions Sales per Passenger Growth 2007/8-2011/ Contents

5 Table 3.4 Heathrow Airport Q6 Forecast Net Retail ncome ( m, 2011/12 Prices) Table 3.5 Table 3.6 Heathrow Airport Q6 Forecast Net Retail ncome by Category ( m, 2011/12 Prices) Heathrow Airport Q6 Forecast Net Retail ncome per Passenger (2011/12 Prices) Table 3.7 Heathrow Airport Net Concessions Revenues as % of Sales Table 3.8 Retail space per passenger 2018/ Table 3.9 Target Retail space per terminal Table 3.10 Comparative Retail shops Revenues per Passenger Table 3.11 Comparative Car Rental Revenues per Departing Passenger Table 3.12 Steer Davies Gleave Q6 Retail Revenue impacts ( m, 2011/12 Prices) Table 4.1 Heathrow Airport Q5 Actual Net Car Parking ncome ( m, 2011/12 Prices) Table 4.2 Composition of Car Parking Sales per Passenger Growth 2008/9 2011/ Table 4.3 Heathrow Airport Q6 Forecast Net Car Parking ncome ( m, 2011/12 Prices) Table 4.4 Heathrow Airport Short Stay Car Parking Prices (Nominal) Table 4.5 Table 5.1 Steer Davies Gleave Q6 Net Car Parking Revenue impacts ( m, 2011/12 Prices) Heathrow Airport Q5 Actual Property ncome ( m, 2011/12 Prices) Table 5.2 Composition Of Q6 Property Revenue Forecasts ( m, 2011/12 Prices) Table 5.3 PD Rental Growth Projections London and South East Table 5.4 Steer Davies Gleave Q6 Property Revenue impacts ( m, 2011/12 Prices) Table 6.1 Steer Davies Gleave Q6 Commercial Revenue Forecasts ( per passenger, 2011/12 Prices) Table 6.2 Q6 Commercial Revenue per Passenger (CAGR per Category) Table 6.3 Comparison of Q6 Commercial Revenue Forecasts ( M, 2011/12 Prices) Contents

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7 DSCLAMER Our work is produced for the Civil Aviation Authority for use in association with its consideration of Q6 price control arrangements for London Heathrow Airport and is not intended to be relied upon by third parties. Steer Davies Gleave accepts no liability for the use of this document other than for the purpose for which it was commissioned. The projections contained within this document represent Steer Davies Gleave s best estimates. While they are not precise forecasts, they do represent, in our view, a reasonable expectation for the future, based on the most credible information available to us as of the date of this report. However, the estimates contained within this document rely on numerous assumptions and judgements and are influenced by external circumstances that can change quickly and influence income. This analysis is based on data supplied by the client/collected by third parties. This has been checked whenever possible, however Steer Davies Gleave cannot guarantee the accuracy of such data and does not take responsibility for estimates in so far as they are based on such data.

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9 1 ntroduction Scope 1.1 Steer Davies Gleave was appointed by the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) to support its assessment of commercial revenues at London Heathrow Airport as part of the price control arrangements for the forthcoming Quinquennium 6 (Q6) period (2014/ /19 inclusive). 1.2 For the purposes of this study the product categories that have been defined as comprising commercial revenues are: Retail Duty and Tax Free, Airside Specialist Shops, Bureaux de Change, Catering, Advertising, Landside Shops and Bookshops, Car Rental, Other. Car Parking Long Stay, Business/Mid Stay, Short Stay, Valet, Other. Property. 1.3 The scope of this study comprises: Review of the reasons for the difference between the Q5 settlement and outturn and any lessons learnt; Review of the overall Heathrow commercial revenue forecast in Q6 and robustness of the underlying assumptions taking into account the broad level of agreement between airports and airlines; Examination of the impact of the ban on tobacco advertising on commercial revenues (and other possible health related/who effects); Review of the Heathrow Airport car parking revenue forecasts taking into account factors such as the impact of passenger mix; For commercial projects that are not till positive in Q6 that have been proposed by the airport, to review the passenger and other benefits and costs of the projects; and Development of independent projections for the Q6 period split into retail, car parking and property. 1.4 We have separately reviewed the report of the airlines commercial revenues consultant, Nyras. The results of the review are provided as an Addendum to this Final Report. Background 1.5 Heathrow Airport s annual regulatory accounts for 2011/12 show that the airport generated 422 million and 131 million in retail and property revenues respectively. These levels equate to revenue per passenger of 6.02 from retail activities and 1.87 from property, based on the 70.1 million passengers who used the airport in that year. 1

10 1.6 Together retail and property revenues accounted for circa 62% of the total commercial revenues reported in the 2011/12 regulatory accounts (rail and other being the additional categories), and 26% of the airport s total revenue. 1.7 BAA (SP) Limited financial results for the 2012 calendar year provide insight into the composition of retail revenues at Heathrow. Within the 460 million of total retail revenues, the largest single product line was Duty and Tax Free ( 122 million, 27% of total) followed by Airside Specialist Shops ( 92 million, 20%) and Car Parking ( 82 million, 18%). 1.8 Looking forwards key influences on the development of Heathrow s commercial revenues during Q6 will include, amongst other things, the rate and nature of passenger traffic development (which will be heavily influenced by the airport capacity constraints) and the effects of the planned opening of the new Terminal 2 in 2014 and closure of Terminal Heathrow has continued to operate under BAA ownership albeit that it has recently rebranded to Heathrow Airport Heathrow is an international hub airport which has undergone, and is continuing to undertake, very major changes to its infrastructure, in particular the opening of Terminal 5 as British Airways base terminal in March 2008 and the planned opening of the new Terminal 2 as the base of the Star Alliance airlines in n addition the airport has been impacted by the significant changes to security procedures which have affected all UK airports since These changes have been set against a backdrop of limited growth in traffic reflecting the impacts of slot capacity constraints, overlaid earlier in Q5 by the effects of the financial crisis Heathrow served over 471,300 Air Transport Movements ( ATMs ) in the 12 months ending December 2012, only 1.8% below its statutory cap of 480,000 ATMs. The ATM cap constrains the level of traffic growth and it also influences the traffic mix as the larger incumbent airlines switch capacity to higher yielding routes (primarily illustrated by the historical trend of switching domestic to international capacity) Heathrow s passenger mix reflects these constraints, with a large proportion of business passengers (who provide high yields to airlines) along with a high share of commercially important category AB passengers (representing 50% of Heathrow s non-connecting traffic). Conversely the proportion of connecting traffic (which tends to be viewed as potentially low yield in airport retailing terms) remains quite high (2011: 33.6%) despite the constraints on Heathrow s hub operations At the individual terminal level the mix of traffic varies, reflecting historical usage along with recent changes made following the opening in 2008/9 of Terminal 5 and in response to airline alliance co-location requirements. There will be a further round of airline relocations between terminals as the new Terminal 2 opens Even the smaller retail product areas at Heathrow generate substantial revenues. For example, in 2012, Landside Shops and Bookshops was only the seventh largest product area generating revenues of 20 million. However to put this figure in context it would represent 25% of the total revenues earned from retail at Stansted. 2

11 FGURE 1.1 HEATHROW ARPORT RETAL & PROPERTY REVENUE MX, 2012 Other 3.4% Car Rental 2.3% Landside Shops & Bookshops 3.6% Advertising 5.3% Duty & Tax Free 21.8% Catering 6.8% Bureaux de Change 7.7% Property 18.2% Car Parking 14.5% Airside Specialist Shops 16.4% Source: Heathrow Airport Limited 1.16 n undertaking our study for the CAA a key point to consider has been the extent to which outperformance of revenues in Q5 versus the regulatory settlement represents a permanent step change towards a higher base level of revenues per passenger from which to forecast airport income in Q Similarly, the opening of the new Terminal 2 (and closing of Terminal 1) can be expected to have a significant influence on commercial performance. Latest plans indicate that these changes will deliver some more retail space but with fewer retail units overall. Remainder of this Final Report 1.18 n the remainder of this report we: Summarise the approach taken in this study; Set out our analysis by category of commercial revenues, comprising a review of historical performance along with assessment of the Q6 forecasts agreed for the BP by the airport and airlines and areas of disagreement; and Present our own independent commercial revenues (per passenger) projections for the Q6 period. 3

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13 2 Approach Data 2.1 Our study has been primarily supported by the provision of commercial data released to us by Heathrow Airport. 2.2 The sales and revenue data used to develop our study has been presented in a variety of price bases. For the purposes of this report we have restated all financial data to 2011/12 prices, using the forecast RP series provided by Heathrow Airport which is sourced from OED. 2.3 Historical prices are derived from the RP figures provided by ONS. 2.4 The RP forecasts are presented in Table 2.1. TABLE 2.1 Year RP ASSUMPTONS Heathrow Airport assumption (OED) 2012/13 2.9% 2013/14 2.6% 2014/15 2.4% 2015/16 2.4% 2016/17 2.8% 2017/18 3.0% 2018/19 3.0% Source: Heathrow Airport 2.5 n addition to data provided directly by Heathrow Airport our work has drawn on a variety of publically available sources of data including (but not limited to): BAA and Heathrow Airport regulatory accounts; BAA (SP) calendar year financial accounts; Benchmark data from sources including the published annual reports of other leading airport groups and other publically available airport retail benchmarks; and Travel retail media. 2.6 We have used the annual forecasts of passenger traffic volume and mix assumed for the Full Business Plan ( FBP ) as context to our review of the Heathrow Airport projections and also in developing our own interim independent forecasts of commercial revenues. 5

14 2.7 Consistent with our nterim Report we have presented assessment of potential impacts in individual commercial categories in revenue terms, which are compared against the FBP forecasts. These are summarised at the end of sections 3, 4 and 5 respectively. 2.8 However pending a CAA decision on which traffic forecasts it will use to make its assessment we have presented our projections on a per passenger basis. These are summarised in section 6. Stakeholder nteraction 2.9 We have met with representatives of the CAA, Heathrow Airport and the airline community at Heathrow through the course of the study We have held a series of discussions with the management of Heathrow Airport through Phases 1 and 2 of this study covering the following areas: Regulation/Commercial Planning; nsight - incorporating discussions about the Heathrow sales model developed by consultants, ; Retail Concessions - including the development of Terminal 2; Duty Free (with specific emphasis on the potential impacts of further restrictions on Tobacco sales); Retail Travel Services - focusing on Advertising, Car Parking, Car Rental; and Property During Phase 1 we had a separate discussion with Matt Davies (British Airways) as representative of the Heathrow airline community n addition a joint airport/airline stakeholder workshop was held in early February in which we shared the results of our nterim Report findings. This report takes into account verbal and written feedback provided by stakeholders at, and following, that session We have met with representatives from the following concessionaires, industry bodies and other external organisations. The purpose of these discussions has been to obtain an independent perspective on general travel retail trends in the airports sector, drivers of commercial performance at Heathrow during Q5, along with potential trends for Q6. n some cases the discussions have focused on specific topics such as the potential impacts of further restrictions on Duty Free Tobacco sales: President, European Travel Retail Confederation. World Duty Free. Harrods. Dixons. WH Smith. The Restaurant Group. 6

15 JC Decaux. Eye Corp. Moneycorp. Travelex. APCOA We have also discussed with Birmingham Airport the lessons they learnt from trials of tobacco sales held under the protocols that will be required by the new Tobacco Display Act. Heathrow Airport Q6 FBP Commercial Revenue Forecasts 2.15 Non-aeronautical revenue projections for the Q6 period have been generated by Heathrow Airport as part of the Q6 FBP released to us in February The previous BP commercial revenue forecasts were discussed with airlines through the Q6 Constructive Engagement process at Heathrow, and specifically through the commercial workstream which met periodically between August 2011 and November The Q6 Constructive Engagement Report for Heathrow sets out the areas of agreement and disagreement between the airport and airlines with respect to the BP projections of commercial revenues for the Q6 period. We understand that these differences largely remain despite the publication of the FBP At the time of Q6 Constructive Engagement there was agreement (with some caveats on individual elements) between airport and airlines on the following areas of the commercial revenue projections and/or their supporting methodologies and assumptions: Overview of commercial business and performance: explanations of commercial business, opex performance, explanations of performance trends; Base forecasts: econometric methodology, forecast methodologies for areas not covered by the econometric methodology, forecasting input sources, base forecasts excluding one-offs, events and solutions; mpacts: Terminal 2 opening and terminal moves, Terminal 1 closure, terminal occupancy, tobacco (NB: direction of impact only), Terminal 4 retail, Olympics, Telecoms, Property; and Solutions: impacts forecasts, Terminal 3 and Terminal 5 options, recommendations, joint initiatives Further details on the areas of agreement are provided in the Q6 Constructive Engagement Report The areas of disagreement are also described in the Q6 Constructive Engagement Report. We have focused on these issues in the following sections of this report Table 2.2 presents the Heathrow Airport FBP net commercial income forecast for Q6 (and the remainder of Q5), broken down into base growth, changes from 7

16 commercial impacts, and income overlays arising from planned new capital developments. TABLE 2.2 HEATHROW ARPORT Q6 NET COMMERCAL NCOME ( M, 2011/12 PRCES) Period Q5 Q6 Category 2012/ / / / / / /19 Q6 Total Base growth ,729.3 mpacts Capital overlays TOTAL ,827.1 YoY% 1.8% -1.2% 3.9% 3.2% 1.7% 1.9% Source: Heathrow Airport FBP (restated by Steer Davies Gleave) 2.22 Most of the income (circa 97%) is projected to be delivered as base growth, which represents development of revenues from the existing commercial estate at Heathrow. mpacts takes into account one offs, events and Q5 investment. This includes several factors, with the net effect of opening of Terminal 2 (and closure of Terminal 1) on revenues, along with the assumed impacts of tobacco legislation being prominent Capital overlays includes the assumed income generating effects of new commercial capital projects for Q6. The business cases for these projects have been discussed with airlines and the level of projected income is based on the assumption that each of these projects is delivered. Heathrow Airport told us that the majority of business cases have been accepted by airlines and prioritised within the airport s capital investment plans. n this report we review two property-related projects which have not been accepted by the airlines. 8

17 2.24 Table 2.3 presents the differences between the Q6 FBP and BP revenue and passenger forecasts as provided to us by Heathrow Airport. TABLE 2.3 Period FORECASTS COMPARSON (FBP VERSUS BP, M 2011/12 PRCES) Q6 Category 2014/ / / / /19 Q6 Total FBP ,827.1 BP ,763.8 Difference Passengers Source: Heathrow Airport FBP and BP Areas of Agreement and Disagreement 2.25 During Constructive Engagement Heathrow Airport and the airlines reached agreement on a substantive number of issues relating to the methodology, assumptions and outputs of the airport commercial revenue forecasts for Q Table 2.4 summarises the main areas of disagreement about the BP forecasts between the parties. We understand that these differences largely remain despite the publication of the FBP, although Heathrow Airport has informed us that the FBP has narrowed the gap on Retail-related areas of disagreement through the inclusion of of contractual renegotiation opportunities. TABLE 2.4 Q6 COMMERCAL REVENUE PROJECTONS AREAS OF DSAGREEMENT Area Airport View Airline View Capital investment criteria for commercial investments Enhanced terminal facilities Perimeter developments excluding Northside Total ban on tobacco duty free due to WHO pressure mpact of Tobacco Display Act till positive over project life Need for flexible funds to rationalise space during Q6 in a till positive way Till positive, projects to be developed as opportunities firm up. Assume ban will be introduced and come into force w/e 2018 Assume 40% impact on tobacco sales till positive in Q6 and 5 year cash payback preferred 30m+ project with payback not until Q8. Till positive but does not meet airline criteria for payback within 5 years. Project does not fulfil the 5 year payback criteria and will not do so until the end of Q8. There is no certainty over a ban and tobacco revenues should be maintained throughout the life of the Q6 projections Agree that there will be an impact, but will be less than 40% impact 9

18 Call to gate changes Consolidation of long stay and business car parks Retail/Advertising Opportunity to drive retail income if call to gate times can be reduced Was not included in BP. Circa 44m investment programme introduced in FBP to expand and improve car parking provision. Current projections are realistic and ambitious Risk to, and cost of, reducing airline punctuality will outweigh benefits of higher commercial revenues Propose 1-2% stretch forecast be applied to BP projections irrespective of the project to consolidate long stay and business car parking. Propose 1-2% stretch forecast be applied to BP projections Source: Q6 Constructive Engagement Report (Heathrow Airport, dated 3 rd December 2012) 2.27 We explore the areas of disagreement later in this report under each of the respective category sections (Retail, Car Parking, and Property). Overview of Steer Davies Gleave Analysis 2.28 We have developed the review and our projections with reference to the key product category areas set out in the FBP along with the areas of agreement and disagreement set out in the Q6 Constructive Engagement Report. Our work has also been informed by our Phase 1 assessment of the Heathrow Airport BP We have focused in particular on the areas of disagreement, although we have looked at certain aspects of areas covered as agreements, for example the methodology used to produce the FBP projections. However it should not be assumed that we have assessed all areas described as agreed between airports and airlines in the Constructive Engagement Report The Heathrow Airport forecasts are presented in revenue terms and this has therefore been our key area of focus, along with the implied levels of revenue per passenger n order to determine the robustness of those projections we have considered where we have had access to relevant data key supporting drivers including (but not necessarily limited to): Sales (in terms of volumes and per passenger); Product category margins; Passenger traffic (volumes and mix); Space available for commercial activities; Changes in legislation impacting on airport commercial activities; mpacts from competition e.g. off-airport car parking; and Movements in indices governing property rents Our findings are supported by comparison to revenue benchmarks from leading global airports of similar size to Heathrow, along with more general market insights based on our conversations with concessionaires along with experience of the global travel retail market. 10

19 2.33 The rest of this report deals with the three key commercial categories in turn: Retail; Car Parking; and Property. 11

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21 3 Retail Market Drivers of Recent Retail Performance 3.1 Travel Retail has proven to be a resilient market globally over the past decade. 3.2 Duty and tax free sales have continued to grow despite global events such as 9/11, SARS, the raq war, celandic ash and the Global economic crisis. The sector has always bounced back quickly from such events and returned to growth. 3.3 Figure 3.1 shows global Duty and Tax Free sales from 2001 to The performance for 2012 has not yet been confirmed but is expected to exceed $50 billion. FGURE 3.1 GLOBAL DUTY AND TAX FREE SALES (NOMNAL PRCES) Source: Generation 3.4 Europe has traditionally been the strongest geographical market for duty and tax free. t was finally overtaken by Asia where sales have grown out of all proportion due to the many airport developments and the rapid development of its huge emerging middle class population. Figure 3.2 shows the size and historical performance of each geographical region. 13

22 FGURE 3.2 PRCES) HSTORCAL RETAL SALES BY GEOGRAPHCAL REGON (NOMNAL Source: Generation 3.5 While the industry has always bounced back following big global events in the past, the future does hold a number of uncertainties due in particular to a range of likely events which will have a direct impact on Travel Retail and/or on Heathrow retail performance. These include: The lifting of the ban in carrying liquids through security leading to reduced dwell time first phase in 2014; Restrictions on the sale of tobacco from 2015; Alcohol minimum pricing possibly impacting arrivals shops; Competition from abroad through the expansion of arrivals shops in destination countries; ncreasing restrictions on import limits in foreign countries; Supply industry prioritising Asia over Europe for niche high value products such as cognac; and Challenging market trends in areas such as books (competition from Kindle, etc.), foreign exchange (e.g. increasing access overseas to ATMs) and technology (increasing bundling of diverse services into single devices such as smartphones). 3.6 However many of the challenges noted above are not new, and have been present during Q5 when Heathrow Airport s retail performance has been exceptionally strong, as described below. The retailers at the airport have shown themselves to be adept at trading through such challenges not least in response to the challenge from their own shareholders for on-going profitable performance. Where individual retail concessions have struggled to perform Heathrow Airport has robust contractual structures which enable the management team to deal quickly and effectively with such problems, including termination of contracts. 14

23 Recent Annual Performance Trends 3.7 Table 3.1 presents the actual revenue performance in Q5 by retail product category. n overall terms net retail income, excluding car parking, grew at a CAGR of 7.4% between 2008/9 and 2011/12 (based on 2011/12 prices). TABLE 3.1 HEATHROW ARPORT Q5 ACTUAL NET RETAL NCOME BY CATEGORY ( M, 2011/12 PRCES) Category 2008/9 2009/ / /12 CAGR 2008/9 2011/12 Duty & Tax Free % Specialist Shops % Other Concessions % Concessions Total % Advertising % Other Services incl. Car Rental Services Total excl. Car Parking Total Net Retail ncome excl. Car Parking % % % Source: Q6 Constructive Engagement Report (Heathrow Airport, dated 3rd December 2012) 3.8 The growth in net retail income was driven in particular by robust development of concessions revenues (CAGR 8.6%). Within Concessions both Duty Free (CAGR %) and Specialist Shops (CAGR 10.6%) recorded exceptional levels of growth. 3.9 Growth in commercial services (excluding car parking) was more muted (CAGR 1.4%), with steady expansion in other services revenues offset by a small decline in advertising revenues Table 3.2 presents the performance in Q5 expressed on a per passenger (two way) basis. Heathrow s annual passenger volumes grew by just over 4 million passengers, to 70.1 million in 2011/12 (CAGR 2.0%). n 2011/12 prices Heathrow s total net retail revenue per passenger increased from 4.44 in 2008/9 to 5.18 in 2011/12 (CAGR 5.2%). 15

24 TABLE 3.2 HEATHROW ARPORT Q5 ACTUAL NET RETAL NCOME PER PASSENGER ( M, 2011/12 PRCES) Category 2008/9 2009/ / /12 CAGR 2008/9 2011/12 Duty & Tax Free % Specialist Shops % Other Concessions % Concessions Total % Advertising % Other Services incl. Car Rental Services Total exc. Car Parking Total Net Retail ncome excl. Car Parking % % % Sources: Q6 Constructive Engagement Report (Heathrow Airport, dated 3 December 2012), Steer Davies Gleave analysis 3.11 Following the trend in revenues, the Concessions categories experienced the fastest levels of real growth in revenue per passenger, whilst per passenger Advertising revenues declined. Q5 Settlement versus Actuals 3.12 Heathrow s retail revenues have outperformed the Q5 projections to date (i.e. up to and including 2011/12). t should be noted that the Retail figures reported in the annual Regulatory Accounts for the airport include car parking. Retail revenues projected 1,414.9 million, actual 1,445.5 million (outperformance of 2.2% versus Q5 forecast) The cumulative outperformance in revenues during Q5 has been achieved despite the drag of lower than projected traffic volumes. Traffic projected million passengers, actual million (shortfall of 8.6% versus Q5 forecast) Retail revenues per passenger have grown to higher levels than assumed and this has more than compensated for the lower than anticipated traffic growth, as shown below for the cumulative 2008/ /12 period: Cumulative average Retail revenues per passenger projected 4.82, actual