Massachusetts Tax Revenue Forecasts for FY 2015 and FY 2016

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Massachusetts Tax Revenue Forecasts for FY 2015 and FY 2016"

Transcription

1 Massachusetts Tax Revenue Forecasts for FY 2015 and FY 2016 The Beacon Hill Institute at Suffolk University 8 Ashburton Place, Boston, MA January 22, 2015 The Beacon Hill Institute is pleased to offer its revenue forecast for Fiscal Year (FY) 2015 and FY 2016 for the annual Consensus Revenue Hearing. 1 We divide our report into three sections, in which we provide (1) a summary of our latest forecast, (2) background information on the national and state economies and (3) a summary of the methodology used to provide our forecast. (1) Current Forecast BHI predicts that tax revenues will be: $24,512 billion in FY 2015, 4.9% over FY 2014, and $25,801 billion in FY 2016, 5.3% over FY The 4.9% increase for FY 2015 and the 5.3% increase in FY 2016 are largely driven by a stronger recovery in the growth of state personal income. The New England Economic Partnership projects state personal income to increase by 5.8% and 6.3% in Calendar Year (CY) 2015 and 2016, respectively. 2 1 Prepared by the staff of the Beacon Hill Institute at Suffolk University, including Paul Bachman, Frank Conte and David G. Tuerck. The authors would like to thank BHI Fall 2014 and Spring 2015 interns Lucas Bavaro (Dartmouth College, Class of 2017), Sereyreach Cha (Suffolk University, Class of 2015), Audrey Davis (Brown University, Class of 2014), and Pedro Jardim (Tufts University, Class of 2014) for their assistance. 2 New England Economic Partnership, Fall 2014 Massachusetts Economic Outlook, Fall 2014 Forecast: Summary Tables. Available upon request. BHI: Massachusetts Tax Revenue Forecasts for FY 2015 and FY 2016 /January 22, 2015 Page 1 of 12

2 (2) Background on the National and State Economies The U.S. Economy Real U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 5% in the third quarter of 2014, according to the final estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 3 In the second quarter, growth finished at a revised 4.6%. Average GDP growth for all of 2013 was finalized at 1.9%. Growth remains slightly below the 3.3% annualized postwar average and is considered by some economists to be still underperforming. 4 Most economic signs are positive, however. In 2014, consumer confidence, as tracked by Bloomberg, rose to its highest level in seven years. The December reading put consumer confidence at its highest level since October 2007, before the recession hit. 5 Gallup s U.S. Economic Confidence Index has shown improvement as well and is at its highest level since it began tracking confidence in A driving force in this index is Americans positive outlook on the economy. Forty five percent of Americans believe that this is a good time to find a quality job; the last time they felt this way was May Also, confidence as measured by Reuters University of Michigan reached a near eight year high. 8 The fall in energy prices is a positive shock to the national economy. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is predicting 3.1% growth in 2015 and 3% in 2016 for the United States. Europe is expected to trail the United States yet again. The OECD expects growth in the Euro zone to rise to only 1.1% in 2015 and 1.7% in As we did last year at this time, we expect U.S. growth to follow a new normal path below the previous normal of about 3% annually. The Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey for January 2015 estimates that the economy will grow by only 2.9% in calendar year 2015 and 2.8% in calendar year The 52 economists surveyed predict growth in the range of 3.7% on the high end and 2% on 3 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 2014, (December 23, 2014). 4 Christopher Condon, ʺGreenspan Throws a Wet Blanket on Hopes for Growth Breakout,ʺ Bloomberg, December 30, 2014, /greenspan throws a wet blanket on hopes for u sgrowth breakout.html. 5 Nina Glinski, ʺAmerican Consumer Comfort in 2014 Was Strongest in Seven Years.ʺ Bloomberg, (December 31, 2014) /american consumer comfort in 2014 was strongest in sevenyears.html. 6 Justin McCarthy, ʺU.S. Economic Confidence Index Continues Upward Trek Gallup. January 13, confidence index continues upwardtrek.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium= &utm_content=heading&utm_campaign=syndication 7 Frank Newport, ʺAmericans Become More Positive About Jobs in January,ʺ Gallup, January 12, become positive jobsjanuary.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium= &utm_content=heading&utm_campaign=syndication 8 Mark Makela. ʺU.S. Consumer Sentiment at Eight year High.ʺ Reuters. Thomson Reuters, 12 Dec usa economy sentiment iduskbn0jq1jq Ibid. BHI: Massachusetts Tax Revenue Forecasts for FY 2015 and FY 2016 /January 22, 2015 Page 2 of 12

3 the low end for Meanwhile, The Economist poll of forecasters predicts that U.S. GDP growth will fall within the range of 2% and 2.3% for 2014 and 2.2% and 3.5% for The U.S. employment situation is improving but the labor force participation rate remains a problem. The December 2014 unemployment rate declined to 5.6%, as the number of unemployed persons decreased 383,000 to a total of 8.7 million. The number of long term unemployed (without a job for 27 weeks or more) was little changed, at 2.8 million. These individuals accounted for 31.9% of the unemployed. The civilian labor force participation rate for December dropped to 62.7%. The labor force participation remains at forty year lows. Not all of the decline in labor force participation during the Great Recession can be explained by demographic shifts. The number of persons employed part time was at 6.8 million in December, and the number of persons who were only marginally attached to the workforce was 2.3 million. 12 The economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal see unemployment in June 2015 at 5.4%. 13 Corporate profits increased $64.5 billion in the third quarter compared to $164.1 billion in the second quarter but were up 8.4% and 3.1% over the same quarters in the previous year. 14 Auto sales are up 5.9% from last year, and there is an expected rise in sales this year due to low fuel prices. 15 On an annual basis, productivity is up by 2.3%, in the third quarter of Also, manufacturing productivity increased 2.9% in the third quarter. 16 The Standard & Poor/Case Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of the U.S. housing market, showed that home prices slightly declined, with eight cities showing gains. The index recorded a 4.6% annual gain in October 2014 versus a 4.8% gain in September The National Index reported a 0.2% in October 2014 while the Composite Index was 0.1%. An estimated 1,032,900 housing units were authorized by building permits in This is 4.2% above the 2013 figure of 990,800, according to the latest release from the U.S. Census Bureau. 18 In November 10 The Wall Street Journal, Economic Forecasting Survey, (January 2015). r=5&ind=gdp. 11 The Economist poll of forecasters, November averages (November 8, 2014). and financial indicators/ economist poll forecastersnovember averages. 12 Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation Summary: December The Wall Street Journal, ʺEconomic Forecasting Survey,ʺ (January 2015). r=20&ind=unemp. 14 BEA, (December 23, 2014). 15 Mike Ramsey and Mike Spector. ʺU.S. Auto Sales Surge in December.ʺ Wall Street Journal, January 5, u s sales rise 6 9 in december capping record year Bureau of Labor Statistics, Third Quarter 2014, Revised, (December 3, 2014). 17 S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Indices, Pace Eases While Eight Cities Show Faster Gains, (December 30, 2014). content/uploads/2014/12/cshomeprice_release_oct2014 results.pdf. 18 U.S. Census Bureau News, New Residential Construction in December (January 21,, 2015). BHI: Massachusetts Tax Revenue Forecasts for FY 2015 and FY 2016 /January 22, 2015 Page 3 of 12

4 total existing home sales fell 6.1%. However, the National Association of Realtors reports that sales are up 2.1% from November Consumer spending continues to rise. Retail and food services sales increased 3.2% since December Households are carrying low debt service ratios. 21 Consumer prices are especially tame; prices fell by 0.4% (seasonally adjusted) in December However, according to the National Retail Federation, Black Friday spending dropped 11% from Consumer spending during the Black Friday weekend fell to $50.9 billion from $57.4 billion in According to the Rockefeller Institute of Government, total state revenues decreased by 1.2% in the second quarter of 2014 but are expected to be stronger in the third quarter. Overall collections showed growth of 1.8% for fiscal year 2014 compared to fiscal year 2013, with sales taxes growing by 4.1% and personal income tax collections decreasing by 6.6% in the second quarter. The Rockefeller Institute noted that states have regained most of the nominal revenues lost during the Great Recession but the stronger growth trend is not a sure thing going forward. 24 Forward looking market indices trended upward in For 2014, the Dow Jones Index is up 7.5% and the S&P is up 11.4%. 25 Meanwhile, the tech heavy NASDAQ is up 13.4%. 26 The mix of loose monetary policy and tighter fiscal policy has set the United States and the United Kingdom apart from the Eurozone and Japan. The failure to extend unemployment benefits to the long term unemployed, the budget sequester, the fiscal cliff and the lack of early infrastructure spending have had little impact on growth. Market economies do find their way back to the GDP trend eventually. Thus, the warnings about austerity have clearly missed the point. Deficit reduction, rather than liberal spending, has helped contribute to current economic growth. Those who predicted an oncoming recession based on crude aggregate demand management and low public spending have been proved wrong. 27 The unemployment rate and the deficit are down and GDP is expanding. The Federal Reserve has made every indication that it will begin raising rates in But history 19 National Association of Realtors, Existing Home Sales Lose Momentum in November as Inventory Slightly Tightens, (December 22, 2014). releases/2014/12/existing home sales losemomentum in november as inventory slightly tightens. 20 U.S. Census Bureau News, Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, (January 14, 2015). 21 The Federal Reserve Board, ʺHousehold Debt Service and Financial Obligations Ratio,ʺ (December 29, 2014). 22 U.S. Census Bureau, Consumer Price Index December 2014, (January 16, 2015). 23 Lauren Coleman Lochner, ʺBlack Friday Fizzles With Consumers as Sales Tumble 11%.ʺ Bloomberg, (December 1, 2014) /u s consumers reduce spending by 11 over thanksgivingweekend.html. 24 Lucy Dadayan and Donald J. Boyd, Personal Income Tax Revenues Decline for the Second Consecutive Quarter,ʺ Rockefeller Institute of Government, (November 2014) SRR_97.pdf. 25 Calculations based on Stock Performance Guide. Yearly Stock Returns Index, 1Stock1, 26 Ibid. 27 Jeffrey Sachs, ʺPaul Krugman and the Obama Recovery, Project Syndicate, (January 5, 2015). syndicate.org/commentary/krugman budget deficit support by jeffrey d sachs BHI: Massachusetts Tax Revenue Forecasts for FY 2015 and FY 2016 /January 22, 2015 Page 4 of 12

5 suggests that the central bank will be patient. It is all a question of timing as to whether the Fed wants to act on information dominated by the poor employee wage growth. James Bullard, President of the St. Louis Fed, thinks any action in 2015 tests conventional monetary policy. A liftoff date at the end of the first quarter of 2015 would already be well past what is called for by a standard monetary policy rule. 28 The Fed, in a survey of its own members, suggests that their best estimate of the long run change in GDP is no more than 3.2%. 29 The Fed sees unemployment at 4.9% likely in The Massachusetts Economy Emerging, as it is, out of the Great Recession in better shape than most states, the Massachusetts economy is expected to gain momentum from CY 2014 through CY In its most recent forecast, the New England Economic Partnership (NEEP) suggests a healthy return to stronger growth trends: 4.6% (FY2014); 5.8% (FY2015) and 6.3% (FY2015). 30 The size of Massachusetts s economy, measured by nominal GDP, is more than $450 billion. 31 Based on final results for 2013 (the latest available), the Massachusetts economy grew by 1.6%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Massachusetts was ranked the 28 th best state for 2013 growth. GDP State figures for 2011 and 2012 were revised upward 1.7% and 2.2% respectively. 32 The contributions of the Massachusetts real estate, rental and leasing sector contributed.52 points of 1.6 percentage point change in real GDP. Professional, scientific and technical services contributed.35 percentage points. Meanwhile transportation and warehousing, educational services, information and other services excluding government were all negative. Massachusetts growth trails both well performing resource rich states such as Texas (3.7%) and other high tech states such as California (2.0%). In November 2014, the Massachusetts unemployment rate was 5.8%, the same as the national rate that same month. 33 The Education and Health Services (+18,100 jobs) and the Profession and Business Services (+13,000 jobs) sectors saw the most gains since November There was also a combined gain of 2,000 jobs during the same period for federal, state and local government jobs. In another positive note, the state s labor force increased in November with more than 80,300 workers added above November 2013 levels. The state s labor force stands at 3.56 million. 28 James Bullard President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, ʺThe FOMC: Ahead on Results, Behind on Rates,ʺ October 2, 2014, Presentation in Tupelo, Mississippi. Tupelo MS 2 October 2014 Final.pdf. 29 Federal Reserve Bank, Economic projections and the target federal funds rate projections made by Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents for the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, (September 17, 2014). 30 New England Economic Partnership, Fall 2014, Economic Outlook, 31 BEA, 32 Bureau of Economic Analysis, ʺWidespread Economic Growth in 2013: Advance 2012 and Revised GDP by State Statistics,ʺ (June 6, 2013). See also 0611BHI DataPoint StateGDP.pdf. 33 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, ʺMassachusetts Economy at a Glance.ʺ January , See also BHI: Massachusetts Tax Revenue Forecasts for FY 2015 and FY 2016 /January 22, 2015 Page 5 of 12

6 Manpower Group, the research arm of the renowned recruitment company, found that Massachusetts employers are more optimistic than they were last year. 34 Although they intend to hire more employees, firms surveyed were less optimistic about first quarter 2015 employment compared to fourth quarter Still, approximately 75% expect to maintain their current staff levels. This sentiment is also reflected in the most recent Beige Book from the Federal Reserve Bank. 35 The trend is positive, generally. According to the Jobs Calculator at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the Bay State needs another 14 months of adding a monthly average of 4,420 to get down to 5.4% unemployment (the 20 year average). 36 Sustaining and expanding high tech jobs, given the sector s high wages, should be a priority. High tech employment comprises roughly 10% of all private sector employment in the Bay State. Between 2001 and 2013, Massachusetts high tech industries lost over 33,000 jobs. Supplementing BLS data used in a Massachusetts study, BHI found that high tech employment in the state declined by 10.4% between 2001 and Out of the 11 industries that make up the high tech sector, four have shown positive growth from 2001 to On the other hand, scientific research has expanded by 51.7% since 2001, adding 17,233 jobs. The pharmaceuticals industry has expanded by 15.0% or 1,528 jobs. More modest gains of 14.8% and 7.1% were seen in computer systems design and software publishing, respectively. The manufacturing industries within the high tech sector continue to lose jobs, with a total of 42,189 jobs lost between 2001 and 2013 in the computer equipment, communications equipment, semiconductor, and electronic instrument manufacturing sub sectors. The high tech sector in Massachusetts should be greatly helped by the repeal of the so called Medical Devices Tax, enacted as part of the Affordable Care Act. Congress is considering repealing the tax this year. Medical device manufacturing is a $9.5 billion industry in the Bay State comprising 2.5% of the state s GDP. 38 Trade remains important to the Bay State economy and passage of Trade Promotion Authority by Congress would expand markets. In 2013, consumers in 210 countries bought over $25 billion in goods and $22 billion in services from local companies. 39 Massachusetts ranked 16th in the United States in 2013 and first in New England with $26.8 billion in exports. 40 The rate for Massachusetts. which was 4.6% exceeded the U.S. rate of 2.1%. 34 Manpower Group, ʺHealthy Job Market Expected for Massachusetts, Manpower US Pressroom,ʺ December 9, 2014, job market expected for massachusetts 3/ 35 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, ʺBeige Book,ʺ (January 14, 2015). 36 BHI calculation based on Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator available at 37 Numbers reflect BHI updated calculations for See Bureau of Labor Statistics, Regional Report, High Tech Industries in Massachusetts: Employment and Wage Trends during the 2001 to 2009 period, (November 2011), 38 Carey Goldberg, What s All This Federal Fuss Over An Obscure Medical Device Tax? WBUR 90.9FM, device tax repeal. 39 Frank Conte, Bay State benefits from foreign trade, Boston Herald, June 19, de. 40 Massachusetts Benchmarks. Due Diligence, FY 2015, First Quarter, BHI: Massachusetts Tax Revenue Forecasts for FY 2015 and FY 2016 /January 22, 2015 Page 6 of 12

7 The Massachusetts housing picture brightened in the past year. The Boston component of the Case Shiller 20 City Composite Index rose by 4.36% in October 2014 over October Massachusetts continues to rank high (#1) in the Institute s measure of competitiveness and the forthcoming update of the ranking appears to show that the Bay State will remain on top. 42 With its diverse industrial sectors, the Commonwealth continues to be a leader in high tech, education and finance. However, preliminary results for the forthcoming index show that Massachusetts declined slightly in the Government and Fiscal Policy Sub Index from 28 th to 33 rd. The decline in commodity prices for energy may yet take a toll on natural resource endowed states such as Texas and North Dakota. But both are in better positions than in the past to cushion the blow expected by lower state tax revenues. Whether a great reversal of fortune as seen in the 1980s and 1990s, where Massachusetts thrived and Texas struggled, will reappear is uncertain. 43 Meanwhile, Massachusetts consumers are benefiting from lower gasoline and home heating oil prices. However, they are failing to take advantage of the lower natural gas prices found in other states because of severe supply distribution constraints in New England. New England business respondents to the Federal Reserve s Beige Book survey project a positive outlook for Future state tax policy appears to be predictably stable with no major rate increases planned. Demographics continue to be favorable, with most of the state s in migration due to international arrivals. 41 See Case Shiller, estate/sp case shiller 20 city composite home price index. 42 Beacon Hill Institute at Suffolk University, State Competitiveness Report (13), (March 2014) NAT.pdf. 43 A cursory look at past trends might offer some insight. When energy prices fell during the 1980s, Massachusettsʹ unemployment rate was significantly lower than that of Texas. In 1986, Texasʹ rate skyrocketed to 9.3%, the highest ever recorded for Texas, while in miraculous Massachusetts the rate was 4.0%. Upon arrival of the 1990 recession, Massachusettsʹ unemployment soared above Texas by nearly 2%. Oil seems to matter less in the 21 st century. After the recession started in 2007, the unemployment rates of both states increased and now have begun to decline post recession. Since the 1980s, Texas has diversified its economy and its ranking on the BHI SCI has improved dramatically over the last nine years. 44 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Beige Book, Boston. BHI: Massachusetts Tax Revenue Forecasts for FY 2015 and FY 2016 /January 22, 2015 Page 7 of 12

8 Methodology The Department of Revenue indicates that tax law changes will reduce revenue collections for a variety of taxes. According to DOR, the tax law changes will reduce revenue by $4.5 million in FY 2015 and $176 million in FY However, the largest portion comes from tax changes enacted in previous years, which we include is already included in the data set. However, we do include tax changes that were enacted for FY 2014 and FY 2015 and anticipated in FY 2016, including the personal income tax rate cuts, the gasoline tax increase and other smaller tax changes. As a result of these adjustments, we increase our estimates by $59 million FY 2015 and do not change our estimates for the new tax law changes for FY Table 1 Economic Forecasts for Massachusetts, 2014 through 2016 Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast US economy CY (calendar year) Personal income ($ billion) 12,430 12,088 12,429 13,202 13,888 14,167 14,859 15,602 16,382 % change per.annum (p.a.) Employment (millions) % change p.a. (0.6) (3.7) Unemployment rate, % Massachusetts (calendar year end) 1 Real Gross State Product % change p.a % Real Personal income ($ billion) % change p.a % Employment (ʹ000) 3,291 3,180 3,190 3,257 3,310 3,358 3,409 3,461 3,521 % change p.a % Unemployment rate, % BHI forecast, MA taxes, (fiscal year) Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Personal income tax ($ million) 12,484 10,584 10,110 11,576 11,911 12,829 13,202 14,039 15,043 % change p.a. 8.8 (15.2) (4.5) Sales Tax 4,087 3,869 4,612 4,905 5, ,779 5,972 % change p.a (5.3) Corporation Excise 1,512 1,549 1,600 1,951 1, ,966 2,134 % change p.a. (15.82) (9.2) (4.1) 8.6 Business Excises 1, % change p.a (46.90) (5.57) (46.87) (20.0) Motor Fuels % change p.a. (0.5) (2.8) (1.6) Total Taxes 20,879 18,259 18,544 20,517 21,115 22,121 23,369 24,512 25,801 % change p.a. (0.5) (12.5) Notes: 1 From New England Economic Partnership, Fall Economic Outlook, BHI: Massachusetts Tax Revenue Forecasts for FY 2015 and FY 2016 /January 22, 2015 Page 8 of 12

9 BHI revenue forecasts assume that there will be no additional major change in Massachusetts tax policy for the forecast period, which runs through June Table 1 shows the forecasts by year and by major tax. For the first six months of FY 2015 (July 2014 through December 2014), tax revenues grew by 4.1% over the first six months of FY 2014, led by a 26.3% increase in business excise taxes, an 11.3% increase in other tax revenues (estate, room occupancy and deeds) a 4.9% increase in personal income tax revenue and a 4.7% increase in sales tax revenues. Motor fuels tax revenues saw an increase, while cigarette tax revenues decreased 3.1% and corporate income taxes fell by 3.7%. We see this trend continuing for the rest of the fiscal with sales tax revenues increasing by 5.2% and personal income tax revenues by 6.3%. Corporate income tax revenues will decrease by 4.1% and business excise taxes revenues slowing to an increase of 6.8%. For FY 2015, we expect total tax revenues to increase by 4.9% over FY For FY 2016, we forecast a 5.3% increase in tax revenues over FY Personal income tax revenues will increase by 7.2% and sales tax revenues by 3.3%. Corporate income tax revenues will rise by 8.6%, and business excise tax revenues will increase by 12.3%. Business excise taxes have experienced the most volatility in the year over year collections, and, as a result, remain the most difficult to forecast. Other tax revenues will fall by 11.3% and alcohol taxes will rise by 2.0%. Motor fuels taxes will rise 2.3%, while cigarette taxes will fall 0.9%. We prepared tax revenue forecasts for 11 categories for every month through June Three steps were needed to develop these forecasts. 1. We used projections of personal income to derive month by month growth rates of personal income, allowing us to project personal income on a monthly basis through June Information on personal income in Massachusetts is available on a quarterly basis. Monthly estimates were obtained by interpolation. 2. For each tax series, we estimated a regression equation that extrapolates from historical data to predict the future. For estimated and withheld income taxes and other taxes, we included personal income as an independent variable. We used dummy variables to pick up the effect of major changes in the tax code. 3. In estimating the regressions, we paid particular attention to the structure of the errors, in order to pick up the effects of seasonal, quarterly and monthly variations in tax collections. This was done by estimating the equations with autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) components. The number and nature of the AR and MA lags were determined initially by examining the autocorrelation and partial correlation coefficients in the correlogram, and then fine tuning after examining the structure of the equation residuals. The details are given in Table 2. BHI: Massachusetts Tax Revenue Forecasts for FY 2015 and FY 2016 /January 22, 2015 Page 9 of 12

10 Table 2 Revenue forecasts, disaggregated, for FY15 and FY16, including technical estimation details Income tax % change FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 AR MA Vars/Dummies Dates Estimated payments 2,602 2,759 3,013 3, % 6.0% 9.2% 1.7% 1,2,5,12 3 PI, PIEST( 12) 79:6 13:11 Tax Withheld 10,015 10,509 11,036 11, % 4.9% 5.0% 7.2% 13,16,24 1,12 PI 79:6 13:11 Returns & Bills 2,112 1,942 2,109 2, % 8.0% 8.6% 6.1% 1,12 1,12 79:6 13:11 Refunds 1,900 2,008 (2,120) (2,093) 2.6% 5.7% 5.6% 1.2% 1,2,12 3,12 PI 79:6 13:11 Income Net 12,829 13,202 14,039 15, % 2.9% 6.3% 7.2% Sales & Use taxes 5,164 5,496 5,779 5, % 6.4% 5.2% 3.3% 1,12 1,12 C 79:6 13:11 Corporation Excise 1,822 2,049 1,966 2, % 12.5% 4.1% 8.6% 12 1,3,12 PI 79:6 13:11 Business Excises % 5.0% 6.8% 12.3% 3,24 3,12 C 79:6 13:11 Alcohol Beverages % 1.9% 2.7% 2.0% 1,3,12 1,12 PI 79:6 13:11 Cigarettes % 18.3% 0.4% 0.9% 1,24 1, 12 83:7, 93:1, 96:10, 02:8, 08:7 79:6 13:11 Motor Fuels % 12.4% 3.5% 2.3% 1,12 1,12,13 PI 79:6 13:11 Other taxes % 18.9% 1.4% 11.3% 1,12 3,12 PI 79:6 13:11 Effect of Tax Law Changes 59 Total Taxes 22,121 23,369 24,512 25, % 5.6% 4.9% 5.3% Notes: AR refers to Autoregressive lags used in the regression. MA refers to Moving Average lags used in the regression. Dummies gives starting dates of each Dummy variable used (e.g. 01:1 is a dummy that is set equal to 1 from January 2001 onwards and to 0 otherwise). Dates refers to period of data used in regression estimates. (PIEST) 12 refers to the income tax estimated payments data lagged by 12 month. PI refers to Personal Income and C, a Constant variable. We directly incorporated into our estimates the cigarette and motor fuels tax increases. BHI: Massachusetts Tax Revenue Forecasts for FY 2015 and FY 2016 /January 22, 2015 Page 10 of 12

11 The left side of the table contains the revenues and the percentage increases from the previous year broken out into the individual tax categories the actual revenues for FY 2013 and FY 2014 as well as the BHI projections for FY 2015 and FY The right side of the table provides the model specification used to forecast each tax and the timeframe for each data series used in the model A complete breakdown of revenue forecasts by month and by the eleven tax headings is available upon request. BHI: Massachusetts Tax Revenue Forecasts for FY 2015 and FY 2016 /January 22, 2015 Page 11 of 12

12 8 Ashburton Place Boston, Massachusetts phone: fax: web site: BHI: Massachusetts Tax Revenue Forecasts for FY 2015 and FY 2016 /January 22, 2015 Page 12 of 12

Massachusetts Department of Revenue. Briefing Book FY2015 Consensus Revenue Estimate Hearing. December 11, 2013. Presented by: Amy Pitter COMMISSIONER

Massachusetts Department of Revenue. Briefing Book FY2015 Consensus Revenue Estimate Hearing. December 11, 2013. Presented by: Amy Pitter COMMISSIONER Massachusetts Department of Revenue Briefing Book FY2015 Consensus Revenue Estimate Hearing December 11, 2013 Presented by: Amy Pitter COMMISSIONER Kazim P. Ozyurt DIRECTOR OFFICE OF TAX POLICY ANALYSIS

More information

REPORT OF THE MAINE STATE REVENUE FORECASTING COMMITTEE

REPORT OF THE MAINE STATE REVENUE FORECASTING COMMITTEE REPORT OF THE MAINE STATE REVENUE FORECASTING COMMITTEE December 2013 Michael Allen, Chair Associate Commissioner for Tax Policy James Breece University of Maine System Melissa Gott State Budget Officer

More information

LEE BUSI N ESS SCHOOL UNITED STATES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST. U.S. Economic Growth to Accelerate. Chart 1. Growth Rate of U.S.

LEE BUSI N ESS SCHOOL UNITED STATES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST. U.S. Economic Growth to Accelerate. Chart 1. Growth Rate of U.S. CENTER FOR BUSINESS & ECONOMIC RESEARCH LEE BUSI N ESS SCHOOL UNITED STATES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST O U.S. Economic Growth to Accelerate ver the past few years, U.S. economic activity has remained

More information

Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014

Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014 Ministry of Finance Chief Economist - Research, State Revenue and International Affairs June 2013 Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014

More information

Non Farm Payroll Employment Developments among States during the Great Recession and Jobless Recovery

Non Farm Payroll Employment Developments among States during the Great Recession and Jobless Recovery Non Farm Payroll Employment Developments among States during the Great Recession and Jobless Recovery Prepared by: Paul E. Harrington and Neeta P. Fogg Center for Labor Markets and Policy, Drexel University

More information

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org Weak First Quarter, But Growth Expected to Recover MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: May 2015 Broad economic growth in the US got off to a slow

More information

The President s Report to the Board of Directors

The President s Report to the Board of Directors The President s Report to the Board of Directors May 5, 2015 CURRENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS - May 5, 2015 Data released since your last Directors' meeting show that economic growth continued to slow in

More information

On March 11, 2010, President Barack

On March 11, 2010, President Barack U.S. Department of Commerce International Trade Administration Introduction Exports Support American Jobs Updated measure will quantify progress as global economy recovers. On March 11, 21, President Barack

More information

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org Jun 20, 2014 MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org Improving Job Market, Weak Housing Market, Lower Mortgage Originations MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: June 2014 Key highlights

More information

Monthly Economic Dashboard

Monthly Economic Dashboard RETIREMENT INSTITUTE SM Economic perspective Monthly Economic Dashboard Modest acceleration in economic growth appears in store for 2016 as the inventory-caused soft patch ends, while monetary policy moves

More information

April 2015 Revenue Forecast. Methodology and Technical Documentation

April 2015 Revenue Forecast. Methodology and Technical Documentation STATE OF INDIANA STATE BUDGET AGENCY 212 State House Indianapolis, Indiana 46204-2796 317-232-5610 Michael R. Pence Governor Brian E. Bailey Director April 2015 Revenue Forecast Methodology and Technical

More information

2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013

2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013 2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013 U.S. stock market performance in 2012 * +12.59% total return +6.35%

More information

THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY

THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY CARLY HARRISON Portland State University Following data revisions, the economy continues to grow steadily, but slowly, in line with expectations. Gross domestic product has increased,

More information

The U.S. and Midwest Economy in 2016: Implications for Supply Chain Firms

The U.S. and Midwest Economy in 2016: Implications for Supply Chain Firms The U.S. and Midwest Economy in 2016: Implications for Supply Chain Firms Rick Mattoon Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Right Place Supply Chain Management Conference

More information

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 1/ X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 10.1 Overview of World Economy Latest indicators are increasingly suggesting that the significant contraction in economic activity has come to an end, notably

More information

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan Mortgage Originations Estimates Revised Higher MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: February 2016 In our most recent forecast, we presented revisions to our mortgage

More information

December 2014 Revenue Forecast Methodology

December 2014 Revenue Forecast Methodology STATE OF INDIANA STATE BUDGET AGENCY 212 State House Indianapolis, Indiana 46204-2796 317-232-5610 Michael R. Pence Governor Brian E. Bailey Director December 2014 Revenue Forecast Methodology Technical

More information

Main trends in industry in 2014 and thoughts on future developments. (April 2015)

Main trends in industry in 2014 and thoughts on future developments. (April 2015) Main trends in industry in 2014 and thoughts on future developments (April 2015) Development of the industrial sector in 2014 After two years of recession, industrial production returned to growth in 2014.

More information

Fort McPherson. Atlanta, GA MSA. Drivers of Economic Growth February 2014. Prepared By: chmuraecon.com

Fort McPherson. Atlanta, GA MSA. Drivers of Economic Growth February 2014. Prepared By: chmuraecon.com Fort McPherson Atlanta, GA MSA Drivers of Economic Growth February 2014 Diversified and fast-growing economies are more stable and are less sensitive to external economic shocks. This report examines recent

More information

Guiding successful Texas families in their asset management since 1982

Guiding successful Texas families in their asset management since 1982 OCTOBER 2014 FOURTH QUARTER OUTLOOK Especially compiled and written for clients of Woodway Financial Advisors Guiding successful Texas families in their asset management since 1982 Third Quarter Market

More information

Summary. Abbas P. Grammy 1 Professor of Economics California State University, Bakersfield

Summary. Abbas P. Grammy 1 Professor of Economics California State University, Bakersfield The State of the Economy: Kern County, California Summary Abbas P. Grammy 1 Professor of Economics California State University, Bakersfield Kern County households follow national trends. They turned less

More information

C&W ECONOMIC UPDATE NATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & REGIONAL OFFICE MARKET UPDATE: NEW YORK U.S. & NEW YORK CITY

C&W ECONOMIC UPDATE NATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & REGIONAL OFFICE MARKET UPDATE: NEW YORK U.S. & NEW YORK CITY C&W ECONOMIC U.S. & NEW YORK CITY NATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & REGIONAL OFFICE MARKET : NEW YORK The national economy remains in slow growth mode as the uncertainty created by the seemingly endless series

More information

MACROECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS VALUATION PROCESS

MACROECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS VALUATION PROCESS MACROECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS VALUATION PROCESS BUSINESS ANALYSIS INTRODUCTION To determine a proper price for a firm s stock, security analyst must forecast the dividend & earnings that can be expected

More information

MBA Forecast Commentary Lynn Fisher, Mike Fratantoni, Joel Kan

MBA Forecast Commentary Lynn Fisher, Mike Fratantoni, Joel Kan MBA Forecast Commentary Lynn Fisher, Mike Fratantoni, Joel Kan Stronger Data Lead to Upward Revisions in Purchase Originations Forecast for 2015 and 2016 MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: July

More information

DEUTSCHE ASSET & WEALTH MANAGEMENT REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK

DEUTSCHE ASSET & WEALTH MANAGEMENT REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK Research Report DEUTSCHE ASSET & WEALTH MANAGEMENT REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK Second Quarter 2013 Economic Outlook Business and consumer spending to drive recovery Quantitative easing beginning its expected unwinding

More information

2012 First Quarter Equity Market Review

2012 First Quarter Equity Market Review Investment Insights 2012 First Quarter Equity Market Review By William Riegel, Head of Equity Investments After a volatile year in 2011, equity markets grew more confident in the first quarter of 2012.

More information

Statement by. Janet L. Yellen. Chair. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on Financial Services

Statement by. Janet L. Yellen. Chair. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on Financial Services For release at 8:30 a.m. EST February 10, 2016 Statement by Janet L. Yellen Chair Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before the Committee on Financial Services U.S. House of Representatives

More information

Main Economic & Financial Indicators Russian Federation

Main Economic & Financial Indicators Russian Federation Main Economic & Financial Indicators Russian Federation 02 NOVEMBER 201 NAOKO ISHIHARA ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44-(0)20-777-2179 E naoko.ishihara@uk.mufg.jp Overview The Bank of

More information

Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation

Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation August 2014 Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation The exhibits below are updated to reflect the current economic outlook for factors that typically impact

More information

07 14 BUSINESS-CYCLE CONDITIONS Gas Prices Not a Risk to Growth by Robert Hughes, Senior Research Fellow

07 14 BUSINESS-CYCLE CONDITIONS Gas Prices Not a Risk to Growth by Robert Hughes, Senior Research Fellow 7 14 BUSINESS-CYCLE CONDITIONS Gas Prices Not a Risk to Growth by Robert Hughes, Senior Research Fellow Gas prices 15 percent jump in six months may be painful at the pump but is moderate by historical

More information

Meeting with Analysts

Meeting with Analysts CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report IV/) Meeting with Analysts Tibor Hlédik Prague, 7 November, Outline Assumptions of the forecast The new macroeconomic forecast Comparison with the previous forecast

More information

The impact of the falling yen on U.S. import prices

The impact of the falling yen on U.S. import prices APRIL 2014 VOLUME 3 / NUMBER 7 GLOBAL ECONOMY The impact of the falling yen on U.S. import prices By David Mead and Sharon Royales In the fall of 2012, Japan set forth economic policies aimed at turning

More information

Meeting with Analysts

Meeting with Analysts CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report II/2015) Meeting with Analysts Petr Král Prague, 11 May, 2015 1 Outline Assumptions of the forecast The new macroeconomic forecast Comparison with the previous forecast

More information

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE CBO. The Distribution of Household Income and Federal Taxes, 2008 and 2009

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE CBO. The Distribution of Household Income and Federal Taxes, 2008 and 2009 CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Percent 70 The Distribution of Household Income and Federal Taxes, 2008 and 2009 60 50 Before-Tax Income Federal Taxes Top 1 Percent 40 30 20 81st

More information

Intuit Indexes Show Small Business Growth Slowing

Intuit Indexes Show Small Business Growth Slowing Contacts: Tammy Lam Vanessa Piccinini Intuit Inc. Access Communications 650-944-3807 415-844-6296 tammy_lam@intuit.com vpiccinini@accesspr.com Intuit Indexes Show Small Business Growth Slowing Employment

More information

Jobs and Growth Effects of Tax Rate Reductions in Ohio

Jobs and Growth Effects of Tax Rate Reductions in Ohio Jobs and Growth Effects of Tax Rate Reductions in Ohio BY ALEX BRILL May 2014 This report was sponsored by American Freedom Builders, Inc., a 501(c)4 organization. The author is solely responsible for

More information

Careers Advisory Service

Careers Advisory Service Careers Advisory Service Annual Report 2012/13 First Destination Statistics Careers Advisory Service 2 nd Floor, 7-9 South Leinster Street The University of Dublin, Trinity College Dublin 2 Tel: 01-8961721/1705

More information

SAN DIEGO S ROAD TO RECOVERY

SAN DIEGO S ROAD TO RECOVERY SAN DIEGO S ROAD TO RECOVERY June 2012 Like all American cities, San Diego suffered from the 2008 financial crisis and ensuing recession. Gradual and positive trends in unemployment, real estate, tourism

More information

Project LINK Meeting New York, 20-22 October 2010. Country Report: Australia

Project LINK Meeting New York, 20-22 October 2010. Country Report: Australia Project LINK Meeting New York, - October 1 Country Report: Australia Prepared by Peter Brain: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, and Duncan Ironmonger: Department of Economics, University

More information

From Widening Deficits to Paying Down the Debt: Benefits for the American People

From Widening Deficits to Paying Down the Debt: Benefits for the American People From Widening Deficits to Paying Down the Debt: Benefits for the American People August 4, 1999 Office of Economic Policy U.S. Department of Treasury From Widening Deficits to Paying Down the Debt: Benefits

More information

Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on. the interest rate for January 2015

Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on. the interest rate for January 2015 BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information January 12, 2015 Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on General the interest rate for January 2015

More information

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group Economics June 2 (April 2 data) Highlights During April, credit unions picked up 3, new memberships, credit union loan balances grew at an annualized 1.7% pace,

More information

Advanced economies driving global growth. Monetary policy still expansionary but tapering

Advanced economies driving global growth. Monetary policy still expansionary but tapering April 22, 2014 Advanced economies driving global growth Monetary policy still expansionary but tapering Interest rates remain favorable Investors recalibrating their portfolios More certainty in fiscal

More information

Supply and Demand Conditions for Electricians. An Update of Labor Market and Electrician Program Data. December 2013

Supply and Demand Conditions for Electricians. An Update of Labor Market and Electrician Program Data. December 2013 Supply and Demand Conditions for Electricians An Update of Labor Market and Electrician Program Data December 2013 Prepared by: Mohamed Mourssi-Alfash, Ph.D. Research Analyst (651) 259-7416 Mohamed.mourssi@state.mn.us

More information

Economic Outlook 2009/2010

Economic Outlook 2009/2010 Economic Outlook 29/21 s Twenty-Eighth Annual Forecast Luncheon Paul R. Portney Dean, Professor of Economics, and Halle Chair in Leadership Marshall J. Vest Director Economic and Business Research Center

More information

Impact of the recession

Impact of the recession Regional Trends 43 21/11 Impact of the recession By Cecilia Campos, Alistair Dent, Robert Fry and Alice Reid, Office for National Statistics Abstract This report looks at the impact that the most recent

More information

US Economic Outlook. How long will the ride last? IHS ECONOMICS. US Outlook

US Economic Outlook. How long will the ride last? IHS ECONOMICS. US Outlook IHS ECONOMICS US Outlook US Economic Outlook How long will the ride last? December 2014 ihs.com Douglas Handler, IHS Chief US Economist, +1 781 301 9283, doug.handler@ihs.com US Economic Overview 2 Executive

More information

Beacon Hill Institute

Beacon Hill Institute Beacon Hill Institute The Economic Effects of Massachusetts Health Care Reform David G. Tuerck, PhD Paul Bachman,, MSIE Michael Head, MSEP BHI Policyy Study September 2011 THE BEACON HILLL INSTITUTE AT

More information

July 2013 King County Economic and Revenue Forecast

July 2013 King County Economic and Revenue Forecast July 2013 King County Economic and Revenue Forecast Briefing to the King County Forecast Council July 24 th, 2013 Dave Reich, Chief Economist Office of Economic and Financial Analysis Summary The U.S.

More information

Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2013. German Economy Recovering Long-Term Approach Needed to Economic Policy

Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2013. German Economy Recovering Long-Term Approach Needed to Economic Policy Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2013 German Economy Recovering Long-Term Approach Needed to Economic Policy Press version Embargo until: Thursday, 18 April 2013, 11.00 a.m. CEST Joint Economic Forecast

More information

Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014

Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014 Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014 Xuesong Li Professor of Economics Deputy Director of Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Email: xsli@cass.org.cn

More information

11-1. Framework of Analysis. Global Economic Considerations. Figure 12.1 Change in Real Exchange Rate: Dollar Versus Major Currencies.

11-1. Framework of Analysis. Global Economic Considerations. Figure 12.1 Change in Real Exchange Rate: Dollar Versus Major Currencies. Framework of Analysis CHAPTER 12 Macroeconomic and Industry Analysis Fundamental Analysis Approach to Fundamental Analysis Domestic and global economic analysis Industry analysis Company analysis Why use

More information

GENERAL FUND REVENUE REPORT & ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. January 2013 Barry Boardman, Ph.D. Fiscal Research Division North Carolina General Assembly

GENERAL FUND REVENUE REPORT & ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. January 2013 Barry Boardman, Ph.D. Fiscal Research Division North Carolina General Assembly GENERAL FUND REVENUE REPORT & ECONOMIC OUTLOOK January 2013 Barry Boardman, Ph.D. Fiscal Research Division North Carolina General Assembly Highlights General Fund revenue through December is $6.5 million

More information

THE RETURN OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURE OR CAPEX CYCLE IN MALAYSIA

THE RETURN OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURE OR CAPEX CYCLE IN MALAYSIA PUBLIC BANK BERHAD ECONOMICS DIVISION MENARA PUBLIC BANK 146 JALAN AMPANG 50450 KUALA LUMPUR TEL : 03 2176 6000/666 FAX : 03 2163 9929 Public Bank Economic Review is published bi monthly by Economics Division,

More information

Quarterly Economics Briefing

Quarterly Economics Briefing Quarterly Economics Briefing March June 2015 2016 Review of Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation The exhibits below are updated to reflect the current economic

More information

Excluding minimum taxes paid by S-Corporations, which are not part of the corporate kicker base. 2

Excluding minimum taxes paid by S-Corporations, which are not part of the corporate kicker base. 2 REVENUE OUTLOOK Revenue Summary Oregon s General Fund revenue growth slowed at the end of fiscal year 2015, as collections of personal income taxes dried up during May and June. Income taxes withheld out

More information

Fourth Quarter 2014 Published by HRO Today Magazine in Cooperation with Yoh Recruitment Process Outsourcing

Fourth Quarter 2014 Published by HRO Today Magazine in Cooperation with Yoh Recruitment Process Outsourcing THE EMPLOYEE WELL BEING STUDY Fourth Quarter 2014 Published by HRO Today Magazine in Cooperation with Yoh Recruitment Process Outsourcing Background The Employee Well Being Study Beginning with the Third

More information

Economy, Capital Markets & Strategy

Economy, Capital Markets & Strategy Sébastien Mc Mahon, CFA Economist Member, Asset Mix Committee Economy, Capital Markets & Strategy 2014 National Business Conference October 2014 1 October 23, 2014 Disclaimer Opinions expressed in this

More information

5 Comparison with the Previous Convergence Programme and Sensitivity Analysis

5 Comparison with the Previous Convergence Programme and Sensitivity Analysis 5 Comparison with the Previous Convergence Programme and Sensitivity Analysis 5.1 Comparison with the Previous Macroeconomic Scenario The differences between the macroeconomic scenarios of the current

More information

Preparing for 2015 Housing Market Opportunities

Preparing for 2015 Housing Market Opportunities January U.S. Economic & Housing Market Outlook Preparing for 2015 Housing Market Opportunities As we enter 2015, the U.S. economy and housing markets are prepared for a robust start. Unlike one year ago,

More information

The Recession of 2007 2009

The Recession of 2007 2009 The Recession of 2007 2009 February 2012 A general slowdown in economic activity, a downturn in the business cycle, a reduction in the amount of goods and services produced and sold these are all characteristics

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 213 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Finland

More information

Background. Key points

Background. Key points Background Employment forecasts over the three years to March 2018 1 are presented in this report. These employment forecasts will inform the Ministry s advice relating to immigration priorities, and priority

More information

Underutilization in U.S. Labor Markets

Underutilization in U.S. Labor Markets EMBARGOED UNTIL Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 5:45 PM Eastern Time OR UPON DELIVERY Underutilization in U.S. Labor Markets Eric S. Rosengren President & Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of

More information

Investment Symposium March 14-15, 2013 New York, NY. Session E5, U.S. Economic Conditions and the Housing/Mortgage Market

Investment Symposium March 14-15, 2013 New York, NY. Session E5, U.S. Economic Conditions and the Housing/Mortgage Market Investment Symposium March 1-15, 213 New York, NY Session E5, U.S. Economic Conditions and the Housing/Mortgage Market Moderator: Jonathan Glowacki Presenter: David Berson Housing & Mortgage Market Outlook

More information

Economic Snapshot for February 2013

Economic Snapshot for February 2013 Economic Snapshot for February 2013 Christian E. Weller on the State of the Economy Christian E. Weller, associate professor, Department of Public Policy and Public Affairs, University of Massachusetts

More information

EMBARGOED UNTIL TUESDAY, 12 MARCH 2013 AT 00.01 GMT

EMBARGOED UNTIL TUESDAY, 12 MARCH 2013 AT 00.01 GMT EMBARGOED UNTIL TUESDAY, 12 MARCH 2013 AT 00.01 GMT Media Contact: Juan David Tous (4) 3815151 juan.tous@manpower.com.co LABOR MARKET IN COLOMBIA EXPECTED TO MOVE AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE ManpowerGroup

More information

National Economic Indicators. September 28, 2015

National Economic Indicators. September 28, 2015 National Economic Indicators September 8, Table of Contents GDP Release Date Latest Period Page Table: Real Gross Domestic Product Sep-- 8: Q- Real Gross Domestic Product Sep-- 8: Q- Decomposition of Real

More information

Fixed Income Market Comments

Fixed Income Market Comments Strategy Fixed Income Weekly Fixed Income Market Comments Weaker economic data and comments from a couple of Federal Reserve Board Governors, who tend to not to speak often as the Federal Reserve District

More information

Nonfarm Payrolls Jump 321K in November

Nonfarm Payrolls Jump 321K in November Economic Analysis Nonfarm Payrolls Jump 321K in November Kim Fraser Chase Employment growth was a jaw-dropper in November, up an astounding 321K following a revised 243K gain in October. This marks the

More information

Financial Planning Association of Colorado

Financial Planning Association of Colorado Financial Planning Association of Colorado Richard Wobbekind Executive Director Business Research Division & Senior Associate Dean Leeds School of Business Real GDP Growth Percent Quarterly and Annualized

More information

Economic Outlook for Europe and Finland

Economic Outlook for Europe and Finland Economic Outlook for Europe and Finland Finnish-British Chamber of Commerce 15 March 213 Seppo Honkapohja Member of the Board Bank of Finland 1 World economy: World industrial output improved, but international

More information

A visual essay: Post-recession trends in nonfarm employment and related economic indicators

A visual essay: Post-recession trends in nonfarm employment and related economic indicators A visual essay: Post-recession trends in nonfarm employment and related economic indicators David Langdon, Rachel Krantz, and Michael Strople Real GDP Corporate profits Unemployment Insurance (UI) claims

More information

HARD TIMES A Macroeconomic Analysis Presented To: The Financial Advisor Symposium

HARD TIMES A Macroeconomic Analysis Presented To: The Financial Advisor Symposium HARD TIMES A Macroeconomic Analysis Presented To: The Financial Advisor Symposium April 16, 2008 1250 S. Capital of Texas Highway Building 3, Suite 600 Austin, Texas 78746-6443 512-327-7200 Fax 512-327-8646

More information

Recent U.S. Economic Growth In Charts MAY 2012

Recent U.S. Economic Growth In Charts MAY 2012 Recent U.S. Economic Growth In Charts MAY 212 GROWTH SINCE 29 The Growth Story Since 29 Despite the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and a series of shocks in its aftermath, the economy

More information

BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information. Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on the

BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information. Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on the BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information September 7, 2015 Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on the General interest rate for September

More information

Post-election economic challenges: Scotland and the UK

Post-election economic challenges: Scotland and the UK Post-election economic challenges: Scotland and the UK Professor Brian Ashcroft Fraser of Allander Institute Strathclyde Business School 1 July 2015 Outline 1. Capacity utilisation Any room to spare? Can

More information

2015 Economic Forecast

2015 Economic Forecast 2015 Economic Forecast for Metro Denver Including Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, and Jefferson Counties February 2015 Prepared By: Development Research Partners Development Research

More information

Small Business Funding and the Economic Recovery

Small Business Funding and the Economic Recovery EMBARGOED UNTIL Friday, January 6, 212 at 1:3 A.M. Eastern Time OR UPON DELIVERY Small Business Funding and the Economic Recovery Eric S. Rosengren President & Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank

More information

Box 3.1: Business Costs of Singapore s Manufacturing and Services Sectors

Box 3.1: Business Costs of Singapore s Manufacturing and Services Sectors Economic Survey of Singapore 213 Box 3.1: Business Costs of Singapore s Manufacturing and Services Sectors Business costs in the manufacturing and services sectors have increased after a period of decline

More information

Facts and Figures on the Middle-Class Squeeze in Idaho

Facts and Figures on the Middle-Class Squeeze in Idaho Facts and Figures on the Middle-Class Squeeze in Idaho For hard-working, middle-class families all over the country, life during the Bush presidency has grown less affordable and less secure. President

More information

REVENUE FORECASTING METHODOLOGY

REVENUE FORECASTING METHODOLOGY STATE OF INDIANA STATE BUDGET AGENCY 212 State House Indianapolis, Indiana 46204-2796 317/232-5610 Mitchell E. Daniels, Jr. Governor Adam M. Horst Director REVENUE FORECASTING METHODOLOGY Technical Committee:

More information

Adjusting to a Changing Economic World. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. It s a pleasure to be with you here in Montréal today.

Adjusting to a Changing Economic World. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. It s a pleasure to be with you here in Montréal today. Remarks by David Dodge Governor of the Bank of Canada to the Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montreal Montréal, Quebec 11 February 2004 Adjusting to a Changing Economic World Good afternoon, ladies and

More information

Economic Outlook, November 2013 November 21, 2013. Jeffrey M. Lacker President Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Economic Outlook, November 2013 November 21, 2013. Jeffrey M. Lacker President Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Outlook, November 2013 November 21, 2013 Jeffrey M. Lacker President Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Asheboro SCORE Asheboro, North Carolina It's a pleasure to be with you today to discuss the

More information

Jarle Bergo: Monetary policy and the outlook for the Norwegian economy

Jarle Bergo: Monetary policy and the outlook for the Norwegian economy Jarle Bergo: Monetary policy and the outlook for the Norwegian economy Speech by Mr Jarle Bergo, Deputy Governor of Norges Bank, at the Capital markets seminar, hosted by Terra-Gruppen AS, Gardermoen,

More information

The economy. The bond market. The stock market

The economy. The bond market. The stock market The economy Global headlines trump steady U.S. economy The U.S. economy continues to plod its way forward at a slow and steady pace. Short-term setbacks seem to be the norm, but a general sense of an improving

More information

Estonia and the European Debt Crisis Juhan Parts

Estonia and the European Debt Crisis Juhan Parts Estonia and the European Debt Crisis Juhan Parts Estonia has had a quick recovery from the recent recession and its economy is in better shape than before the crisis. It is now much leaner and significantly

More information

Maryland s Job Growth Continues to Lag in 2014 State behind national growth rates for fourth consecutive year

Maryland s Job Growth Continues to Lag in 2014 State behind national growth rates for fourth consecutive year Maryland s Job Growth Continues to Lag in 2014 State behind national growth rates for fourth consecutive year Job growth in Maryland continued to lag the U.S. in 2014 for the fourth consecutive year. Moreover,

More information

Weekly Economic Commentary

Weekly Economic Commentary LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Economic Commentary April 16, 2012 Beige Book Shows Modest Growth John Canally, CFA Economist LPL Financial Highlights The latest Beige Book indicates that the economy is

More information

General fund revenues expected to show moderate growth over the forecast horizon

General fund revenues expected to show moderate growth over the forecast horizon A-13 REVENUE FORECAST The Commonwealth's total revenue consists of two types of resources: the general fund and nongeneral funds. About half of state revenues are "nongeneral funds," or funds earmarked

More information

INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE. Thursday 4 th February 2016. Opening remarks by the Governor

INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE. Thursday 4 th February 2016. Opening remarks by the Governor INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE Thursday 4 th February 2016 Opening remarks by the Governor Good afternoon. At its meeting yesterday, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 9-0 to maintain Bank Rate

More information

Recovery in UK property to gain momentum. Recovery in UK property market to gain momentum. Research & Strategy. June 2013. Economic growth recovering

Recovery in UK property to gain momentum. Recovery in UK property market to gain momentum. Research & Strategy. June 2013. Economic growth recovering Research & Strategy Recovery in UK property to gain momentum June 13 Recovery in UK property market to gain momentum This hasn t been a typical recession and it won t be a typical recovery. Nevertheless

More information

Geoff Riley. Head of Economics, Eton College Co-Founder of

Geoff Riley. Head of Economics, Eton College Co-Founder of Geoff Riley Head of Economics, Eton College Co-Founder of Green Shootsor Heading for a slump? Outline of today s presentation Recession winners and losers Recession -causes and policy responses When will

More information

percentage points to the overall CPI outcome. Goods price inflation increased to 4,6

percentage points to the overall CPI outcome. Goods price inflation increased to 4,6 South African Reserve Bank Press Statement Embargo on Delivery 28 January 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the

More information

FRBSF ECONOMIC LETTER

FRBSF ECONOMIC LETTER FRBSF ECONOMIC LETTER 15-16 May 18, 15 The Puzzle of Weak First-Quarter GDP Growth BY GLENN D. RUDEBUSCH, DANIEL WILSON, AND TIM MAHEDY The official estimate of real GDP growth for the first three months

More information

THE McGRAW-HILL COMPANIES REPORTS FIRST QUARTER EARNINGS PER SHARE OF 39 CENTS. Revenue Grows by 9.7% Operating Margin Improves in All 3 Segments

THE McGRAW-HILL COMPANIES REPORTS FIRST QUARTER EARNINGS PER SHARE OF 39 CENTS. Revenue Grows by 9.7% Operating Margin Improves in All 3 Segments For Immediate Release THE McGRAW-HILL COMPANIES REPORTS FIRST QUARTER EARNINGS PER SHARE OF 39 CENTS Revenue Grows by 9.7% Operating Margin Improves in All 3 Segments New York, NY, April 27, 2004 The McGraw-Hill

More information

Phoenix Management Services Lending Climate in America Survey

Phoenix Management Services Lending Climate in America Survey Phoenix Management Services Lending Climate in America Survey 4th Quarter 2010 Summary, Trends and Implications PHOENIX LENDING CLIMATE IN AMERICA QUARTERLY SURVEY SUMMARY, TRENDS AND IMPLICATIONS 1. Existing

More information

Striking it Richer: The Evolution of Top Incomes in the United States (Updated with 2009 and 2010 estimates)

Striking it Richer: The Evolution of Top Incomes in the United States (Updated with 2009 and 2010 estimates) Striking it Richer: The Evolution of Top Incomes in the United States (Updated with 2009 and 2010 estimates) Emmanuel Saez March 2, 2012 What s new for recent years? Great Recession 2007-2009 During the

More information

Analysis of Survey Results

Analysis of Survey Results Analysis of Survey Results 调 查 结 果 分 析 The American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai 上 海 美 国 商 会 -2011 China business report Analysis of survey results Survey Overview This year s survey was conducted online

More information