2 Report Rev Preamble II name date prepared C. Bellon, L. Müller, H. Voigt, R. Zimmerli checked R. Mühlemann released C. Deiss Distribution company / department / name remarks DSB / IC4 Program Team / J.B. Johansen / S.S. Christensen SBB / Passenger Traffic Operating / R. Mühlemann PROSE This document discloses subject matter in which the PROSE Ltd., Winterthur (Switzerland), has proprietary rights. Neither receipt nor possession thereof confers any right to reproduce or disclose the document, any part thereof, any information contained therein, or any physical article or device, or to practise any methods or process, except by written permission from or written agreement with, PROSE Ltd., Winterthur (Switzerland). This document is computergenerated and valid without signature.
3 Report Rev Preamble III Revision Index prepared checked released date L. Müller R. Mühlemann C. Deiss Rev. Rev. Rev. Rev. Rev. Modifications revision description
4 Report Rev Preamble IV Executive Summary Danske Statsbaner (DSB) has commissioned PROSE Ltd. to undertake an independent external assessment of the current situation of the IC4/IC2 project. The assessment is being undertaken by PROSE with consultant support from Swiss Federal Railways. DSB has 82 IC4 4coaches and 23 IC2 2coaches diesel trainsets. These trainsets proved not to be suitable for operation. DSB found itself in the unique situation where a train operator is taking over the responsibility of completing newly built trainsets, instead of the manufacturer. This assessment is focussed on the IC4 trainsets. The objective is to assess if it is worthwhile for DSB to continue spending resources on the train types IC4 and IC2 and if so, to what extent. It should be assessed in detail if the goals defined in the deployment plan by DSB regarding availability, reliability and functionality are realistic and if they can be met by the measures taken by DSB, and if not, what measures should be additionally defined. By end of October 2014 the IC4 fleet performed a total mileage of 10.8 Mio km, 30% this year. Currently the trainsets are limited to operate in single traction and the maximum speed is reduced. Due to the individual trainset configuration status, error finding and root cause analysis is more difficult and time consuming. Due to the poor reliability of the trainset and additional inspections, the maintenance efficiency is low which leads to high operational costs. The final availability goal to have 74 IC4 trainsets in operation in 2019 is realistic since DSB has the required maintenance infrastructure as well as procedures in place to support this availability deployment. The current availability requirement to have 32 trainsets ready for operation twice a day is achieved. The final reliability goal of 20,000 km mean distance between failures is in the long term realistic compared to other vehicles and operators. Currently reliability is not given priority over availability and functionality. The reliability goal is not achievable, and furthermore the improvement potential addressed is not even enough to address the today s goal. The final functionality goals assessed are realistic from a technical point of view. The intermediate phase (fixed couplings and 180 km/h) is delayed. All other goals are still achievable. Measures defined by DSB are pointing in the right direction. However, additional measures are required to achieve the goals set out in the deployment plan. The engineering capacity should be increased by at least 12 Fulltime Equivalent (FTE) to improve failure analysis, set up the task force for the power pack and defining measures and an increase in the workshop staff by at least 40 FTE is required. This is to speed up the Rebuild and Campaigns to the IC4 and IC2 fleet (CFG) implementation. Five designated IC4 trainsets shall be prioritised for use to collect mileages so that an indication can be obtained as to how the rest of the fleet will perform at a later stage. The defined processes of IC4 program team shall be followed consequently and conscientiously. In general the organisation and quality management system are sufficient to reach the goals. The goal to operate in fixed double traction is dependent upon the software approval of the Train Computer and Monitoring System. The defined modifications have to be properly validated.
5 Report Rev Preamble V The root cause analysis for fractures in the damper support of the axle box housing has to be completed. The brake system has to be properly analysed and a validation plan for the new blending parameters needs to be set up. Due to the high number of failures identified in the power pack and the complexity of the system, the power pack has to be analysed by the task force. The current solution on the power pack and the axle box housing is indicating weaknesses and this could lead to major design changes. The balance with recommended measures in 2019 is Mio DKK, 1.5 Mio DKK per trainset (74 trainsets). Taking into account the risks for a design change the balance can vary from 0.7 Mio DKK to 0.7 Mio DKK per trainset. This balance is based on the scope considered within this assessment. Therefore additional costs may occur. Due to the delay in the procurement of the trainsets and therefore the shorter usable life cycle of the fleet, the investment made is poor. In the current situation the trains cannot be operated as expected but the investment to reach the deployment plan is known based on defined and recommended measures by this assessment. This allows a comparison with alternative solutions. Hence DSB advised development of the trainsets according to the deployment plan in order to allow an operation of the fleets on their natural lifecycle. Regardless of the amount of trainsets used and their duration of operation, the trainsets only have a value if the functionality and the reliability goals are reached. It is recommended that the IC4 trainsets are operated mainly in long distance traffic. Today is a completely different situation compared to October 2011, where the Atkins report was elaborated. Atkins concluded that the fundamental systems and major items of equipment fitted to IC4 trainsets are sound and are currently operating reliably. Unfortunately now this is not the case as identified during the technical risk assessment. The assessment has been carried out within a limited timeframe but with the aim to cover all necessary topics related to the IC4 program. This means that the assessment is based on the interviews performed and the documentation provided and is of a limited scope. This technical assessment does cover all currently addressed issues, but future issues could occur. Due to reasonable suspicion other systems also fitted to trainsets might be incompletely engineered.
6 Report Rev / 84 Content 1 Introduction 7 2 Goals set by DSB for the IC4 fleet 10 3 Assessment Results 11 4 Current status of the IC4 fleet 17 5 Financial appraisal IC4 trainsets 20 6 Appraisal Organisation 23 7 Appraisal Quality management 26 8 Appraisal Workshop Performance 31 9 Appraisal MDBF Improvement and goals Appraisal Technical risk assessment of main functions Differences in conclusion to the Atkins report Abbreviations, Terminology Appendices 84
7 Report Rev / 84 1 Introduction DSB has commissioned PROSE Ltd. to undertake an independent external assessment of the current situation of the IC4/IC2 project in terms of whether it is worthwhile for DSB to continue spending resources on the train types IC4 and IC2. The assessment is being undertaken by PROSE with consultant support from Swiss Federal Railways (SBB). 1.1 Task Definition The assessment shall give answers to the following questions: Are the goals defined by DSB regarding availability and reliability realistic and can they be met by the measures taken by DSB, and if not, what measures should be additionally defined? Are the goals of DSB concerning performance and trainset availability in 2019 realistic? If not, what is a realistic goal relative to economy and technique? Are the measures defined by DSB already enough? If not, what are the consequences of additional measures seen from a technical, economical, operational and safety point of view? Is the deployment plan and performance plan of the IC4 economically viable relative to the fact that that the Danish lines are going to be electrified? Is the service life of the IC4/IC2 economically affected by the purchase of new trains? 1.2 Assignment The assignment has been carried out by PROSE in close cooperation with SBB and support of ENOTRAC. The assessment has been carried out between 26 August and 4 December Onsite visits were performed at DSB headquarters in Høje Tåstrup, as well as the workshops Sonnesgade and Augustenborggade in Århus and Kastrup Airport Copenhagen (KAC). During the visits various inspections, meetings and interviews were carried out. Besides the DSB maintenance internal partners Trafikstyrelsen, DSB operation, DSB economics and DSB safety were also interviewed. 1.3 Approach Due to its complexity the assessment was divided into two phases. The first phase focused on the collection of information in order to become acquainted with the design of the trainset and the organisation itself, the defined measures and the issues of the systems. This phase was performed in three weeks between 26 August and 12 September The goal was to define and prioritise the focus areas to be assessed in the second phase. The second phase focused firstly on the focus areas defined by the assessment team, which were: organisation, quality management, workshop performance, Mean Distance Between Failure causing a delay > 5min (MDBF) improvement and goals, technical risk assessment of main functions.
8 Report Rev / 84 The starting point of the technical risk assessment is the list of the main functions that have to be improved as well as the required CFGs and modifications to be in place in order to achieve the following identified main technical functions: Coupling multiple traction: These modifications should relieve the limitation of single traction operation Brake (Blending, Wheels Slide Protection, ): These modifications should relieve the current speed reductions Axle box housing: Cracks were detected in the lower wheelsetbearinghousing. Power pack: Several integration problems and defects of components in the power pack (PP) reduce the availability of the trainset. The focus has been placed on the critical CFGs that are about to be implemented and on the main functions of the trainsets. Secondly, to develop a comprehensive overview of the findings of the focus areas and the financial assessment in order to answer the questions raised in the task definition. 1.4 Report Structure There is a twopage standalone executive summary in the front. The chapter 1 introduction provides all administrative information, such as the task definition, the approach and the structure of the report. This provides the reader with the correct foundation. Chapter 2 provides the goals set by DSB and explains them in detail. Chapter 3 provides an overview of the assessment results summarised. The answers given are referred directly to the questions stated in the task definition. The analyses including the considered documentation are detailed in the corresponding chapters. Chapter 4 gives information on the current state of the IC4 fleet. This is a factbased capture of the current situation. Chapter 5 provides the financial appraisal including capital expenditures (CAPEX) and operational expenditure (OPEX). The following chapters provide information on a focus area chosen by the expert assessment team: Chapter 6 Organisation Chapter 7 Quality management Chapter 8 Workshop performance Chapter 9 MDBF improvement and goals Chapter 10 Technical risk assessment of main functions Chapter 11 highlights the differences in conclusion with the Atkins report. Chapter 12 lists all abbreviations used. Chapter 13 Appendices provides a list of annexes. Please note journal references: meetings, interview and visits are given as follows (A1, 01). References to the document reference list are given as follows (A2, 001).
9 Report Rev / Schedule Based on the tight time schedule, a tight and meticulous interview plan was implemented. All interviews, meetings and various inspection tours have been coordinated by DSB in a professional manner.
10 Report Rev / 84 2 Goals set by DSB for the IC4 fleet The IC4Program of DSB is working on three goals simultaneously. These goals are relevant for the assessment (As per task definition in the introduction chapter 1). Increase the availability of the rolling stock. In IC4 trainsets should be in operation. Increase in reliability. In 2019 the reliability of the IC4 trainsets should reach at least a MDBF value of 20,000 km. Increase the functionality of the rolling stock. In 2019 all functionalities should be available. Today s restrictions are speed limitation to 169 km/h and additionally to 140 km/h during fall time. Furthermore the operation is limited to single traction. The three goals are visualised in the figure 21. The prerequisites define the requirements to be met in the respective phases. figure 21: DSB Deployment plan for IC4 trainsets (A2, 015)
11 Report Rev / 84 3 Assessment Results This chapter summarised the result of the assessment. All details including the references to the documentation assessed are given in the corresponding appraisal chapters. 3.1 Current status IC4 trainsets The current availability requirement is to have 32 trainsets ready for operation twice a day. The total mileage of the fleet by end of October 2014 is 10.8 Mio km. In the period from the 1 January until 31 October 2014 the mileage of the fleet is 3.07 Mio km. The MDBF baseline calculated as average is 5,949 km between January and August Currently the trainsets are only operated in single operation (not in multiple operations as coupled units), and the maximum speed is limited. On a large number of trainsets a high amount of CFGs are already implemented. However, each trainset has its individual current status of CFGs implemented. Due to the poor reliability of the trainset and additional inspections, the maintenance efficiency is low. This leads to high operational costs. 3.2 Deployment plan IC4 trainsets The provided deployment plan as per figure 21 contains three dimensions: Availability, Reliability and Functionality. Following assessment results could be stated: Availability The final goal regarding availability is realistic. This requires keeping a clear focus on Availability in the workshop, as well as the required manpower. As a prerequisite for the future increase of availability, a positive development in trainset reliability is required. DSB has the required maintenance infrastructure as well as procedures in place to support this availability deployment. Reliability The final goal of 20,000 km MDBF regarding reliability is realistic in the long term in comparison with other vehicles and operators. Currently reliability is not given the same priority as availability and functionality. The MDBF baseline as an average of the fleet (January till August 2014) is 5,949 km for operation in regional and long distance traffic. The goal as per the deployment plan should be 7,260 km in January 2014 and increase to 9,077 km in August The total reliability improvement potential addressed is 2,473 km. This is not even sufficient to reach the goal defined for August However the MDBF of 13,687 km (A2, 406) only for November 2014 shows a positive tendency. Functionalities The final goals of the functionalities assessed are realistic from a technical point of view. Phase 2 (fixed couplings and 180 km/h) is delayed. Please note the completion of phase 2 will increase the operability of the trainset. All other goals are still achievable.
12 Report Rev / Additional measures recommended and their consequences DSB set up a deployment plan to define the goals. Measures have already been defined by DSB in the areas of organisation, operation, processes and for the improvement of technical solutions. The assessed measures are pointing in the right direction. However, additional measures in these areas are recommended. The recommended measures are addressed by the consequences from a technical, economical, operational and safety point of view Deployment plan Measures recommended o Plan to be maintained by owner o Goals must be monitored and communicated because they are partly unknown as determined during interviews with DSB Operation and in workshop KAC Consequences o None identified Organisation Measures recommended o Set up a task force team on the power pack o Improve the reporting of failure messages by crossfunctional teams including drivers, engineering (hardware, software) and workshop staff; additionally these teams shall be used to reproduce errors in close collaboration o Increase in experienced Reliability Improvement Team (RIT) and Engineering capacity by at least 10 FTE (this includes the task force and cross functional teams) to improve failure analysis and defining measures o Increase of experienced Train Computer and Monitoring System (TCMS) Engineering capacity by at least 2 FTE o Increase of the workshop staff by at least 40 FTE to speed up the CFG implementation o Establish resource management for unexpected critical technical issues Consequences o Additional RIT and Engineering staff (This includes TCMS transfer team) of 12 FTE for next 3 years is required which amounts to approx Mio DKK o To speed up the CFG implementation additional maintenance staff of 40 FTE for next 2 years is required which amounts to approx Mio DKK o Only consequences in the area of economics have been identified.
13 Report Rev / Operation Measures recommended o Five IC4 trainsets shall be designated to collect mileages. Therefore these trainsets shall be prioritised for use in long distance traffic. The aim is to collect mileages within a short time period in order to obtain an indication of how the rest of the fleet will perform at a later stage. Consequences o None identified Process Measures recommended o Follow the defined processes of IC4PT consequently and conscientiously, especially: Root cause analysis (RCA) Definition of requirements (qualitative instead of quantitative) Verification, validation and testing o Implementation of the activity compiling FMEA and validation plan when a CFG is started Consequences o None identified Improvement of technical solutions Measures recommended o Coupling multiple traction The TCMS software version required for operation in fixed coupled double traction is not yet approved by the TS. Therefore the approval shall have the greatest focus within the IC4PT. o Axle box housing Completion of the RCA o Brake system Define a validation plan for the new blending parameters Analyse the side effects of each modification, i.e. influence of the new BCUsoftware version 1.16 on the performance of the Wheels Slide Protection System (WSP) Deepen the knowledge of the system and the components with the goal to identify the potential for increased system reliability o Power pack (PP) RCA of current breakdowns of the crankshaft bearings in the engine in order to identify the root cause of the damaged bearings, which may concern the entire fleet or not, and to define specific corrective actions.
14 Report Rev / 84 Expand on design knowledge and repeat necessary validation (type) tests with the goal of assessing the risk of a design failure Consequences o About < 1 Mio DKK for PP and axle box related nonrecurring cost measures (From economical point of view) Possible consequences o The current solutions on the power pack and the axle box housing are indicating weaknesses and these could lead to major design changes: Design change leads to new engine, costings about 2 Mio DKK per trainset Design change leads to engine retrofit activities, costings about 800,000 DKK per trainset Design change leads to new axle box housings, costings about 200,000 DKK per trainset Financial overview The balance as at today is based on the original project frame credit. Taking the above additional economic consequences into account, the following balance is given (74 trainsets considered): Balance as at today (Coupler refurbishment considered): Balance with planned measures by DSB in 2019: Balance with recommended measures in 2019: 437 Mio DKK Mio DKK Mio DKK That means per trainset the remaining budget is 1.5 Mio DKK in 2019 with all recommendations considered. Taking into account the risks of a design change the following balance is given: Balance 2019 incl. PP bearing retrofit activities: per trainset: 52.0 Mio DKK 0.7 Mio DKK Balance 2019 incl. PP bearing & new axle box retrofit activities: per trainset: Balance 2019 incl. PP new motor & new axle box retrofit activities: per trainset: 37.2 Mio DKK 0.5 Mio DKK 51.6 Mio DKK 0.7 Mio DKK This balance is based on the scope considered within this assessment. Therefore additional costs may occur.
15 Report Rev / Life time IC4/IC2 trainsets Due to the delay in the procurement of the trainsets and therefore the shorter usable life cycle of the fleet, the investment made is poor. In the current situation the trains cannot be operated as expected but the investment to reach the deployment plan is known based on defined and recommended measures by this assessment. Hence DSB advised the development of the trainsets according to the deployment plan in order to allow an operation of the fleets on their natural lifecycle as long as the LCC performance is better than available alternatives. Regardless of the amount of trainsets used and their duration of operation, the trainsets only have a value if the functionality and the reliability goals are reached. 3.5 Operational pattern During the assessment DSB asked for a recommendation about the future usage of the IC4 trainsets regarding interregional / regional. It is recommended that the IC4 trainsets are operated mainly in interregional traffic as specified (long distance train). This recommendation is based on the following facts: The IC4 trainset is a very heavy train with a 3.3 ton higher maximum axle load tons compared to available alternative DMU IC3 Regional operation means shorter distance between stops and greater number of stops compared to interregional traffic, leading to o Higher passenger exchange rates required o Higher demands, especially for propulsion system, brake system and door system o Higher wear on parts such as brake pads and wheels, resulting in additional maintenance o Higher fuel consumption Lower MDBF figures 3.6 Differences compared to Atkins report Today is a completely different situation compared to October 2011, where the Atkins report was elaborated. The last trainsets were completed by the end of year Now the trainsets are in operation collecting more mileages and operational experience. Due to several reasons such as poor workmanship, bad design and incomplete engineering, failures, especially of a dynamic nature resulting from service, still occur after a certain period of time. Due to this reason, differences relative to the conclusions of the Atkins report in 2011 were identified throughout our assessment in a number of specific topics.
16 Report Rev / 84 Atkins concludes that the fundamental systems and major items of equipment fitted to IC4 trainsets are sound and are currently operating reliably. Unfortunately now this is not the case as identified during the technical risk assessment.
17 Report Rev / 84 4 Current status of the IC4 fleet 4.1 IC4 fleet configuration The fleet consists of 82 trainsets, containing: 67 trainsets approved for operation (A1, 04) 5 trainsets are taken apart for spare parts, cannibalising (A1, 04) 74 trainsets shows the deployment plan for 2019 (A2, 015) The availability requirement is reached by 32 trainsets ready for operation twice a day.12 of the 32 trainsets are in passenger operation service, the others are serviced as operational reserve. 4.2 IC4 trainset configuration relating to CFG implementation The following observation has been made by assessing the trainset configurations (A02, 091). It contains the implementation status of all modifications and CFG which has been implemented. It reflects the following status by the 30 September 2014: The trainset 5655 has with 103 CFG the highest number of CFGs implemented CFGs have been implemented on 58 different IC4 trainsets in August and September 2014 The fleet can be categorised into three groups: o o o On 5 trainsets (5606, 5607, 5612, 5613 and 5614) only 7 CFGs are implemented. On all these trainsets, at least one CFG has been implemented in September On 6 trainsets, between 46 and 67 CFGs are implemented. Between May and August, on all trainsets at least one CFG has been implemented. On 71 trainsets, between 75 and 103 CFGs are implemented. Since April on all trainsets at least one CFG has been implemented.
18 Report Rev / IC4 trainset mileages The total mileage of the fleet of 82 trainsets by end of October 2014 is 10.8 Mio km (A2, 030). Four trainsets still have 0 km (trainset no , 79, 80, 83). The following observations have been made by assessing the trainset mileages (A2, 030/374) for the mileages performed during the period from the 1 January until 31 October 2014, see figure 41: 80% of the fleet mileages were performed by 31 different trainsets 50% of the fleet mileages were performed by 17 different trainsets <1% of the fleet mileages were performed by 30 different trainsets The entire fleet performed 3.07 Mio km in total figure 41: Mileage of the fleet, total and in period from the 1 January until 31 October 2014 (A2, 030/374) The expected future mileage level per trainset/year has been adjusted to 190,000 km (A02, 339). In the original tender specification an annual mileage of 350,000 km has been specified per IC4 trainset (A02, 348).
19 Report Rev / IC4 trainset TCMS software status On the 7 November 2014, the implementation of the TC and GTW version 2.1 and the IDU software version 2.2a was introduce on the fleet. The IDU version 2.2a is a further development of the IDU version 2.1. The homologation of the version 2.1 is limited to single train operation (A2, 349). The version 2.2a has been classified by DSB as not significant, which has been confirmed by the National Safety Authority Trafikstyrelsen (TS). Therefore no dedicated homologation for the IDU version 2.2a is required. The TC, the GTW and IDU all have their own software. All three systems are collectively named TCMS (A2, 354).
20 Report Rev / 84 5 Financial appraisal IC4 trainsets 5.1 Package Summary The allocated CAPEX will be sufficient to bring the majority of trainsets up to the specified level defined by the deployment plan with the measures defined by DSB and additionally recommended measures. However, there is a risk of exceeding this in the event that a new engine is required for the power pack or additional, nonassessed system parts requiring substantial modification. Due to late commission of the IC4 fleet the full usage period has been shortened from 25 to approx. 15 years. The current operational costs are reflecting the currently poor reliability of the IC4 fleet as well as the suboptimal inefficient maintenance. This will change when the MDBF improves. 5.2 Capital Expenditure / CAPEX This chapter compares the expected cost to achieve the goals set by DSB with the original project outline cost Current Situation As per the provided financial overview (A02, 399) there is a balance of 475 Mio DKK, hence 6.4 Mio DKK per IC4 trainset equivalent to 74 trainsets left from the original project frame to complete the trainsets to specification level. 38 Mio DKK is allocated for the mechanical refurbishment of the coupler Cost Estimate to complete the trains Measures already defined by DSB The following costs are estimated based on the assessment to fulfil the goals of the deployment plan: IC4PT Management, Engineering and RIT with actual 30 FTE as per the current burn rate (A02, 339) for (assumption) is estimated at a total of 180 Mio DKK Burn rate workshop with 40 FTE (assumption) as at the current hourly rate of 306 DKK (A02, 400) and 1515 h p.a. for (assumption) is estimated at a total of 55.6 Mio DKK Material costs for smaller modifications estimated at 120,000 DKK (assumption) per IC4 trainset (8.88 Mio DKK for 74 trainsets)
21 Report Rev / 84 The balance by 2019 with defined measures by DSB will be following: Balance as at today: 475 Mio DKK Cost for coupler modification: 38 DKK Burn rate IC4PT Management, Engineering and RIT: 180 Mio DKK Burn rate workshop: 55.6 Mio DKK Material costs: 8.88.Mio DKK Balance in 2019 with defined and planned measures by DSB: Mio. DKK Additional measures recommended Based on the additional measures as recommended in chapters 7.2.3, 9.2 and 10.2 the following costs are estimated: Burn rate with 12 FTE of additional staff for IC4PT Engineering and RIT as per the current burn rate (A02, 339) for is estimated at a total of 43.2 Mio DKK Burn rate with 40 FTE for additional workshop staff to implement CFGs as per the current hourly rate of 306 DKK and 1,515 h p.a. (A02, 400) for is estimated at a total of 37.1 Mio DKK PP and axle box > nonrecurring cost measurement such as completing external RCA as well as function & type tests on testbench estimate data total of < 1 Mio DKK Sum of additional recommended measures: 81.3 Mio DKK The balance by 2019 with additional measures as recommended: Balance in 2019 with defined and planned measures by DSB: Mio DKK Sum of additional recommended measures: 81.3 Mio DKK Balance in 2019 with additional proposed measures: Mio DKK Balance per trainset (74 trainsets): 1.5 Mio DKK Taking into account the risks of a design change, the following balance is given (See chapter ): Balance 2019 incl. PP bearing retrofit activities: per trainset: 52.0 Mio DKK 0.7 Mio DKK Balance 2019 incl. PP bearing & new axle box retrofit activities: per trainset: Balance 2019 incl. PP new motor & new axle box retrofit activities: per trainset: 37.2 Mio DKK 0.5 Mio DKK 51.6 Mio DKK 0.7 Mio DKK To reduce or eliminate the costs mentioned above the recommended power pack task force should be setup as soon as possible.
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