1 White Paper Forecasting the 45mm Ramp Up IC Knowledge LLC, PO Box 2, Georgetown, MA 1833 Tx: (978) , Fx: (978) , Introduction The introduction and ramp up of 45mm wafers represents a huge transition for the semiconductor industry. Based on a detailed analysis of historical wafer size transitions, silicon usage trends, technology transitions and silicon demand by product a forecast of the 45mm ramp has been produced. The analysis suggests a set of constraints that produces a single unique forecast that meets all of the assumptions. Furthermore an examination of the initial 45mm fab announcements is consistent with the forecasted initial ramp. Previous Wafer Size Transitions At each of the 15mm, 2mm and 3mm wafer size transitions a single wafer fab was initially built and then a period of time passed before additional fabs were built. At 15mm Intel drove the transition and built the first fab, at 2mm IBM was the driver and built the first fab, at 3mm we saw two consortiums drive development and then Siemens and Motorola jointly built the first fab. In each case the ramp up in terms of the percentage of total silicon area represented by the new wafer size versus time has been similar, for example figure 1 illustrates the 2mm and 3mm ramps (15mm is not shown but was similar). 4% 35% Percentage of total silicon area produced 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % 3mm 2mm Figure 1. New Wafer Size Ramp Up as a Percentage of World Wide Silicon Area Versus s Elapsed Since the New Size Was Introduced .
2 Since the last three wafer size transitions have all shown a similar ramp up it would appear to be reasonable to expect that the 45mm ramp would also be similar. Silicon Demand Forecast An x y plot of worldwide silicon demand versus semiconductor revenue can be fit with a linear equation with a.987 R squared value, see figure 2. 25, 2, WW Silicon (MSI) 15, 1, 5, $. $2. $4. $6. $8. WW Semi Revenue ($B) Figure 2. Worldwide silicon demand versus semiconductor revenue . The combination of the data plotted in figure 2 with a long term semiconductor revenue forecast can be used to produce a long term silicon forecast. It is well known in the semiconductor industry that year to year semiconductor revenue is highly volatile and forecasting revenue growth for any given year is difficult at best, however, longer analysis terms smooth out the yearly fluctuations in growth rate. Figure 3 presents actual worldwide semiconductor revenue by year from 196 through 211 (solid green diamonds) and forecast revenue for 212 through 23 (open green diamonds). The calculated average growth rate for each decade is also shown, for example 196 to %, 197 to %, etc. From figure 3 it can be seen that the CAGR has been declining over the last two decades falling from the mid teens prior to the 199s to approximately 12% in the 199s and approximately 4% in the 2s. The 2s were particularly challenging with two very severe down turns. With the strong start to the 21s seen in 21 we believe we will see some recovery in CAGR for the 21s but the industry is maturing and a return to a long term double digit CAGR is in our opinion unlikely (although likely over shorter one to two year periods). Based on a detailed forecast through 213 and trend analysis for 214 through 219 we are forecasting a CAGR for the 21s of 6.28%. For the 22s we are forecasting a relatively conservative 5% CAGR.
3 $1,. $1. 4.5% % Revenue ($B) $ % 11.9% $ % $ Figure 3. Actual and Forecast Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue . 45mm Ramp Combining the data from figures 2 and 3 produces a forecast of silicon required by year (figure 4 black line). Furthermore with a few reasonable assumptions a forecast of silicon demand by wafer size including the 45mm wafer ramp can be produced (figure 4 colored lines). The underlying assumptions are: Wafer sizes smaller than 3mm will decline as a percentage of total silicon demand at a rate consistent with historical declines in older wafer sizes. 3mm demand will meet all future demand growth plus lost smaller wafer size capacity until 45mm enters production. 45mm will enter production in 218 and ramp as a percentage of silicon demand at the same rate seen for the three prevision wafer size transitions. The resulting actual and forecast wafer demand by wafer size is presented in figure 4. Silicon Demand by Product The data presented in figure 4 includes test wafers as well as prime starting wafers; it is also a total for all semiconductors and therefore includes other products in addition to the integrated circuits that will be the drivers for 45mm (as they have been for 3mm to date). Using historical data and trend analysis similar to the analysis presented in this paper we have broken out demand to produce an integrated circuit silicon demand forecast . Furthermore an analysis of all of the 3mm wafer fabs in the world from 1998 to the present day can be used to produce a break out of silicon demand by product type ,.
4 25, 2, Silicon demand (MSI) 15, 1, 5, Total 2mm 45mm 3mm Figure 4. Worldwide Silicon Demand by Wafer Size . Combining the preceding analysis with some reasonable assumptions about future trends we can produce an actual and forecast breakout of wafer starts for 3mm and 45mm by product type. The key assumptions for a 3mm and 45mm product type forecast are: NAND Flash will grow as a percentage of 3mm and 45mm silicon demand for the next several years before beginning to level off. ASICs (Foundry and in house SOC, the term ASIC is used to be consistent with the ITRS ) will maintain a steady percentage of 3mm and 45mm silicon demand. Other will not migrate to 45mm during the forecast period but will increase as a percentage of 3mm wafers as analog and discrete devices ramp up on 3mm and ASIC, DRAM, Flash and MPU migrate to 45mm (there is one 3mm analog fab currently operating and one 3mm discrete fab currently announced). The resulting silicon starts for 3mm and 45mm wafers by product is illustrated in figure 5. Technology Transitions The addition of technology transitions to this discussion provides another constraint on the 45mm ramp by product. At 3mm the transition began while 15nm was in production, 13nm was split between 2mm and 3mm, by 9nm 3mm was the leading wafer size and at 65nm 2mm production was very rare. Once 45mm enters production, equipment companies will focus their leading edge technology development on 45mm and the introduction of new technologies on 3mm will likely slow and then cease within a few generations.
5 1, Starts (MSI) 1, 1 1 ASIC DRAM Flash MPU Other R&D Figure 5. 3mm and 45mm Wafer Demand by Product Type . Fab Forecast Combining the silicon demand by product from figure 5 with the available total 45mm silicon from figure 4 and technology transition curves for the different product types creates a highly constrained scenario in terms of required fabs at 45mm by product type. The resulting forecast of 3mm and 45mm fabs versus time is presented in figure mm Fabs 2 45mm Fabs Number of fabs 15 1 R&D Other Flash MPU DRAM ASIC Number of fabs 15 1 R&D Other Flash MPU DRAM ASIC Figure 6. Wafer Fabs Forecast .
6 This forecast of 3mm fabs is based on ASIC and MPU fabs at 3, wpm, DRAM at 6, wpm, Flash at 1, wpm, other at 25, wpm and R&D at 5, wpm> these numbers were determined by analyzing all of the 3mm fabs in the world currently in production. For Foundry fabs included in ASIC each fab phase is considered a separate fab. For the 45mm fab analysis the average fab size has been assumed to be 1.5x the wafer output in wpm of a 3mm fab for the same product. This is the ratio seen for the last three wafer size transitions. For example, at 3mm the average Flash fab is 1, wpm and for 45mm we are forecasting 15, wpm. Please note that up until 215 the 3mm fabs are based on actual and announced fabs and from 216 forward the forecast is mathematically derived based on demand. This results in a drop in number of fabs in 216 suggesting that current fab construction and planning is running ahead of our forecast demand. To date TSMC has announced a 45mm R&D fab and a production fab, Intel has announced two 45mm capable fabs and Samsung is believed to be working on a 45mm fab . The forecast capacity and timing of these fabs is consistent with the projections in figures 4 and 6. Conclusion A detailed long term silicon forecast has been produced. An analysis of historical and predicted future trends produces a highly constrained forecast for 45mm with a single unique solution to the assumption set. This detailed forecast is available as a forecast model where the user can see the calculation details and assumptions as well as modify the assumptions. The model is available as the IC Knowledge 3mm and 45mm Forecast Model silicon edition available at A companion product extending the silicon forecast to forecast equipment demand is also available as the IC Knowledge 3mm and 45mm Forecast Model equipment edition, also available at A similar materials forecast is in development. About IC Knowledge LLC IC Knowledge is the world leader in Cost Modeling of Semiconductors and MEMS. We provide Cost Modeling software as well as Cost Modeling services. We also offer Database, Forecast and Report products. Our customers include many of the leading producers of Semiconductors, Equipment and Materials for the Semiconductor industry, Electronics companies and leading Consultants and Consortia. We have several Strategic Partners and Subcontractors we work with to provide a wide range of services to our customers. For more information please go to or contact us at References  3mm and 45mm Watch Database 123, IC Knowledge LLC (212).  3mm and 45mm Forecast Model silicon edition 122, IC Knowledge LLC (212).  International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors,
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