Assessment Of Whole Life Cost In Electrification. Matt Skinner, Functional Lead Analysis (Acting) 22 nd October 2013

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1 Assessment Of Whole Life Cost In Electrification Matt Skinner, Functional Lead Analysis (Acting) 22 nd October

2 Why consider Whole Life Cost? Internal and external challenge to improve Asset Policy justification and option selection through WLC analysis Asset Policies determine Network Rail s intervention activities (maintenance, renewal, enhancement, etc) Identification of lowest WLC for given set of outputs Cost Total cost Risk Cost Maintenance Cost Renewal Cost Replacement interval * Asset Policy = Asset Strategy (UIC AM Guidelines) 22 nd October 2013 Electrification Infrastructure Whole Life Cost Optimisation 2

3 Approaches to WLC for existing and new assets Presently different approaches harmonising as Network Rail better understands WLC methods Existing assets suite of tools (Excel) developed to support Asset Policy development Uncertainty & sensitivity analysis built in Combination of deterministic and probabilistic calculation techniques New assets suite of Excel models to assess new build options Use of good practice guidelines 22 nd October 2013 Electrification Infrastructure Whole Life Cost Optimisation 3

4 WLC models in context Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Strategic models which forecast work volumes, outputs and expenditures for a portfolio or network of assets E.g km of overhead line Strategic models which calculate the whole life cost for single asset type - for a range of possible renewal, maintenance and utilisation options E.g. a section of overhead line Tactical models which support the specification of location specific maintenance and renewal work E.g. Specification of maintenance and renewal works for a specific location of overhead line 22 nd October 2013 Electrification Infrastructure Whole Life Cost Optimisation 4

5 Typical questions addressed by WLC models What is the optimum intervention regime for mid-life refurbishment activities on overhead line equipment (OLE)? What is the optimum maintenance regime over the asset lifecycle, taking account of the criticality of the service that the asset provides? What options represent the lowest whole life cost solution for a new electrification scheme? What impact, if any, is there on future maintenance and reliability with different design options? 22 nd October 2013 Electrification Infrastructure Whole Life Cost Optimisation 5

6 A conceptual WLC model Intervention Criteria - Asset Age - Asset Type - Asset - Etc Intervention Type - Inspection - Refurbishment - Renewal - Etc Asset Configuration Asset History Asset Relationships Intervention Dates Intervention Costs Operational Costs Revenue Asset Utilisation - Capability - Duty Unit Costs Asset Measures - Remaining Life - - Service Risks Controllable Asset Management Decisions Calculating Engine / Model Core Impact of Decisions 22 nd October 2013 Electrification Infrastructure Whole Life Cost Optimisation 6

7 Asset hierarchy of OLE for WLC analysis OLE Contact Wire Catenary Wire Droppers & Jumpers Registration Equipment Other ATCs Registration Insulators Booster Transformers Structures & Foundations Earthing & Bonding Neutral Sections & SIs Three categories of OLE (line speed & pan passages) five bands of route criticality 22 nd October 2013 Electrification Infrastructure Whole Life Cost Optimisation 7

8 WLC analysis focus for existing assets - Mark 1 and Mark 3 OLE designs 22 nd October 2013 Electrification Infrastructure Whole Life Cost Optimisation 8

9 Four key asset relationships for use in WLC modelling 1. Asset age / utilisation to condition How achieved for sub-components such as droppers & jumpers? 2. Asset condition to probability of failure (PoF) Robust failure data needed 3. Probability of failure to service output impacts Service output safety, performance, etc 4. Impact of interventions on asset age and condition What do we get for our money? 22 nd October 2013 Electrification Infrastructure Whole Life Cost Optimisation 9

10 Asset age/utilisation to condition determination of asset life span Use of empirical data e.g. output from measurement trains Robust condition assessment process Level of detail aligned to supporting decision making Accurate asset register / data Decision support tools Contact Wire Cross Sectional Area (mm 2 ) Contact Wire Material Lost (per cent) Wear Measurement Maximum Rate Maximum Rate ExcludingOutlying Points Δ mm 2 / day (est. lifetime: 963 years) Minimum Rate Average Rate ECM1 Data - new wire All Points are average of 95 th - 98 th percentiles of wear measurements within each span Δ mm 2 / day (est. lifetime: 74 years) Δ mm 2 / day (est. lifetime: 141 years) Δ mm 2 / day (est. lifetime: 91 years) /10/ /04/ /11/ /06/ /12/ /07/ /01/ /08/ /02/ % 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% Percentile along Span 22 nd October 2013 Electrification Infrastructure Whole Life Cost Optimisation 10 Registration Point Midspan Registration Point

11 Asset condition to probability of failure (PoF) Robust failure data/records with root cause information and asset age Update of Fault Management System to make use of formal FMEAs Improvement needed in certainty around relationship Dropper and Jumper Mark 3 Constant Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Repair Dropper and Jumper Mark 3 Constant Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Replace nd October 2013 Electrification Infrastructure Whole Life Cost Optimisation 11

12 PoF to service output impacts Safety risk had little effect on WLC analysis but still needs to be considered Service impact (no. of train delays and penalty payments) was the main driver Environmental impact linked to oil filled assets Mixture of data and expert judgement to identify relationship parameters Service impact caused by Droppers & Jumpers No Impact Low Average High Repair 80% 15% 4% 1% Replace 0% 49% 48% 2% 22 nd October 2013 Electrification Infrastructure Whole Life Cost Optimisation 12

13 Impact of intervention on outputs Complex for refurbishment and maintenance Impact of different maintenance regimes application of Risk Based Maintenance Use of Quality Index (as per UIC Leaflet R) Impact of different designs on RAMS performance e.g. system tensions? 22 nd October 2013 Electrification Infrastructure Whole Life Cost Optimisation 13

14 Finding the lowest WLC intervention testing with uncertainty analysis Identification of lowest WLCC, for given set of outputs, leads to the proposed asset renewal policy for OLE OLE Line Category Route Criticality Band by SRS nd October 2013 Electrification Infrastructure Whole Life Cost Optimisation 14

15 Conclusions (1) WLC modelling is not easy! Identify what questions you want to answer before looking at software solutions Complexity of WLC and solutions should be commensurate with the question and the quality / completeness of the data It s all about the data and exploitation/modification of existing systems (if you have them) Make use of existing asset register accurate data Use of defect codes to assist analysis 22 nd October 2013 Electrification Infrastructure Whole Life Cost Optimisation 15

16 Conclusions (2) Make use of empirical evidence e.g. measurement train data Experts can fill the empirical data gap for a while Make use of Fault Management System data deploy technology to make process more effective Monitoring of specific sections of network to improve knowledge of asset lifespan Software tools need to be able to include uncertainty take account of data issues Beware the Black Box solution internal and external stakeholders welcome transparency 22 nd October 2013 Electrification Infrastructure Whole Life Cost Optimisation 16

17 Thank you Q & A 22 nd October 2013 Electrification Infrastructure Whole Life Cost Optimisation 17

18 Assessment Of Whole Life Cost In Electrification Matt Skinner, Development Manager Date

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