Introducing Visual Strategic Planning Using Four Higher Education 'Business Model' Scenarios and Strategic Technology Maps

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1 Introducing Visual Strategic Planning sing Four Higher Education 'Business Model' Scenarios and Strategic Technology Maps Dr. Jan-Martin Lowendahl Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. This publication may not be reproduced or distributed in any form without Gartner's prior written permission. If you are authorized to access this publication, your use of it is subject to the sage Guidelines for Gartner Services posted on gartner.com. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner di sclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information and shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in such information. This publication consists of the opinions of Gartner's research organization and should not be construed as statements of fact. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Although Gartner research may include a discussion of related legal issues, Gartner does not provide legal advice or services and its research should not be construed or used as such. Gartner is a public company, and its shareholders may include firms and funds that have financial interests in entities covered in Gartner research. Gartner's Board of Directors may include senior managers of these firms or funds. Gartner research is produced independently by its research organization without input or influence from these firms, funds or their managers. For further information on the independence and integrity of Gartner research, see "Guiding Principles on Independence and Objectivity."

2 Please, remember Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful." George Box English Statistician, p. 424 Box, G. E. P., and Draper, N. R., (1987), Empirical Model Building and Response Surfaces, John Wiley & Sons, New York, NY.

3 Citizen Developers Student Retention CRM Open-Source SIS SIS International Data Interoperability Standards Affective Computing Campus App Store Open Microcredentials Education Tablet Quantum Computing Mashware Learning Stack BPO EA Frameworks Web-Based Office Productivity Suites Adaptive E-Textbooks Big Data Gamification MOOC Social Software Standards Wireless aas COBIT Adaptive Learning Digital Preservation of Research Data BYOD Strategy E-Book Readers Game Consoles as Cloud HPC/CaaS Mobile-Learning Smartphones Open-Source Middleware Suites E-Textbook Cloud for Staff and Faculty Mobile-Learning Low-Range/ Midrange Handsets Open-Source Financials ITIL Social Learning Platform for Education Media Hubs Tablets nified Communications and n Collaboration Lecture Capture and Retrieval Tools Intellectual Property Rights and Royalties Management Software IT Infrastructure tility Enterprise Architecture SaaS Administration Applications Open-Source Learning Repositories Hosted Virtual Desktops Emergency/Mass Notification Services Virtual Environments/Virtual Worlds Self-Publishing Mashups

4 Hype Cycle for Education, 2013 A CIO Toolbox expectations Citizen Developers Student Retention CRM Open-Source SIS SIS International Data Interoperability Standards Affective Computing Campus App Store Open Microcredentials Education Tablet Quantum Computing Mashware Learning Stack Innovation Trigger BPO EA Frameworks Web-Based Office Productivity Suites Peak of Inflated Expectations Adaptive E-Textbooks Big Data Gamification MOOC Social Software Standards Wireless aas COBIT Adaptive Learning Digital Preservation of Research Data BYOD Strategy Cloud HPC/CaaS Mobile-Learning Smartphones Open-Source Middleware Suites E-Textbook Cloud for Staff and Faculty Mobile-Learning Low-Range/ Midrange Handsets Open-Source Financials ITIL Social Learning Platform for Education Trough of Disillusionment time E-Book Readers Game Consoles as Media Hubs Tablets nified Communications and n Collaboration Lecture Capture and Retrieval Tools Intellectual Property Rights and Royalties Management Software IT Infrastructure tility Enterprise Architecture SaaS Administration Applications Open-Source Learning Repositories Hosted Virtual Desktops Emergency/Mass Notification Services Virtual Environments/Virtual Worlds As of July 2013 Slope of Enlightenment Off the Hype Cycle: E-portfolio, ser-centric IAM, Organization-centric IAM, SOA, Student Enrollment CRM, Open Source Portals, Social Media in Education Source: "Hype Cycle for Education, 2013" 25 July 2013 (G ) Years to mainstream adoption: less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 years obsolete before plateau Self-Publishing Plateau of Productivity Mashups

5 The Expanding Education Ecosystem DIY Hired Hand Starfish Retention Workday Moodlerooms Dell "cloud" Perceptis Context Banner You Are Here Corporate LiveMocha Fronter Saf-T-Net Kroton demy Moodle Blackboard Apollo G Adobe Connect Embanet Compass Georgia Tech OpenClass Civitas Open Tapestry 2 The Expanding Education Ecosystem: A World of Choice (G ) dacity Core HE Continuous Tools Services NCAT K-12 X plugjam Facebook/ Social Texas A&M Knewton Increasing Options and Competition! FE Statistics.com Carnegie Learning StraighterLine MS Certification AcademicPub Kno MyFit Importance of Exostructure Connections Education Pearson Tegrity McGraw-Hill OpenCourseWare/ Merlot International Baccalaureate Content Cool Vendors in Education, 2013 (G )

6 Start Action 1 Decision Action 2 Result THE KEY ISSE What investments in information technology will be strategic in positioning the institution for long-term success in fulfilling its mission? f(x y z ) = People Process Technology n

7 Higher Education "Business Model" Scenarios Technological Decisions by Storytelling Oxford Perceived Quality Collectively Exclusive Only s Everybody's Community College Scale Inclusive Wharton Me, Not All About Source: "Four 'Business Model' Scenarios for Higher Education: An Introduction to Strategic Planning Through Storytelling" (G ) Personally.K. Open niversity dacity

8 HE Scenarios Technological Decisions by Storytelling: From Monasteries to 'Monasteries'? Brilliance for Market Innovative nique Perceived Quality Collectively High Touch Exclusive Only s Everybody's Scale Inclusive Me Not All About Personally

9 Only s The Extreme Characteristics Academic freedom Creative community Keepers of tradition Where matter matters Brick and mortar (?) Social bonding/belonging Everything that cannot be easily copied Here, it is more about the institution and its ability to support academic freedom than about you. You stay because the institution can give you a lot of resources in return for your skills and time. Only s Me Not Everybody's All About

10 HE Scenarios Technological Decisions by Storytelling: From Guilds to Clubs Edge in Market Perceived Quality Collectively Only s Everybody's Exclusive Scale Inclusive Privacy Me Not All About Premium Personal Personally

11 Me Not The Extreme Characteristics Only s Me Not Everybody's All About Community values rule Tricks of the trade are learned here and nowhere else There is a clear sense of being on the inside (track) Network for life Source of competitive advantage for life Always available the hub Here, it is about getting that extra advantage in fulfilling a dream and you have to be focused on "adding value" to the community's goal. You stay because you are on the inside and it looks good on your CV.

12 HE Scenarios Technological Decisions by Storytelling: From National Knowledge Factories to a Global Learning Ecosystem Perceived Quality Collectively Scale Scale of Market Cost-effective Exclusive Only s Everybody's Standardized Scale Inclusive Me Not All About Personally

13 Everybody's The Extreme Characteristics Only s Me Not Everybody's All About Everything for everybody: The Giga niversity Catering for all pedagogical needs nder political pressure to cost-effectively cater to a larger (national) need for knowledge workers Program just-in-case focused education (One-pace-fits-all education) Volume matters Here, it is about the greater good of the society, and consensus dictates the road ahead. You stay as you know you are helping to empower a lot of people to realize their social and economic potential.

14 HE Scenarios Technological Decisions by Storytelling: From Correspondence Courses to Brokerage Perceived Quality Collectively Exclusive Only s Me Not Everybody's All About Scale Inclusive Reach Flexible Personally Consumerized Speed to Market

15 All About The Extreme Characteristics Only s Me Not Everybody's All About Only mind over matter Very niched Opportunistic economy of speed Making economy out of scale Brokerage niversity of just-right, just-in-time, any-pace education Individual reputation based Virally marketed Here, it is all about you, and you have extreme personal flexibility. But, you have to take full responsibility for the content of your own education, the course of your career and how to pay the bill each month. demy... Top 10 >1MSD

16 Your? From 20xx to 20xx A You Are Here B You Want to be Here Perceived Quality Collectively Optional Plot: Competitor Challenger Only s Everybody's Exclusive Scale Inclusive Me, Not All About Personally

17 Higher Education Scenarios Technological Decisions by Story Telling Perceived Quality Collectively 2010 <1% >80% Only s Everybody's Exclusive Scale Inclusive Me, Not <10% No trad. stud: ~200M (300M to 400M with "top-up" approach) Personally All About <10%

18 Higher Education Scenarios Technological Decisions by Story Telling ~1% >50% Only s Perceived Quality Collectively 2025 Exclusive Everybody's Scale Inclusive Me, Not All About <20% Personally >30% No 2013 Gartner, stud: Inc. and/or its affiliates. >250M? All rights reserved.

19 Higher Education Scenarios Technological Decisions by Story Telling <2% <30% Only s Perceived Quality Collectively Everybody's 2050 Exclusive Scale Inclusive Me, Not All About >25% Personally >45% No 2013 Gartner, stud: Inc. and/or its affiliates. >350M? All rights reserved.

20 Exploiting the Tension Between OE and PP: Explaining the Strategic Technology Map Organizational Efficiency Improves Institution ROI Corporate Green Light Cold Case? Personal Productivity Hot Spot! People's Choice Improves Student/Faculty/Staff Experience = Start Action 1 Decision Action 2 Result People Process Technology f(x y z ) n

21 HE Scenarios Technological Decisions by Storytelling: From Monasteries To 'Monasteries'? Brilliance for Market Innovative nique Perceived Quality Collectively High Touch Exclusive Only s Everybody's Scale Inclusive Me Not All About Personally

22 Only s - Strategic Technology Map Only s Me, Not Everybody's All About Fundraising Alumni CRM The Next New Thing Hype Cycle Color Key Organizational Efficiency Improves Institutional ROI Innovation Management Real-Time Infrastructure Learning Platform SOA Storage Research Management Bandwith Idea Management Tuition- Financial aid Single- Sign-On FIAM Quantum Computing 3D Bioprinting Haptics Interactive Visualization Lecture Capture & Retrieval Mobile Learning Smartphone MOOC Social Media Tablet Strategic Service: Innovation Service Improves Student/Faculty Experience Personal Productivity Improves Remember "Everything Is Relative"

23 HE Scenarios Technological Decisions by Storytelling: From Guilds To Clubs Edge in Market Perceived Quality Collectively Only s Everybody's Exclusive Scale Inclusive Privacy Me Not All About Premium Personal Personally

24 Me Not : Strategic Technology Map Only s Me, Not Everybody's All About Organizational Efficiency Improves Institutional ROI Fundraising Software Trusted Viewing Multichannel Customer Analytics CRM Retention Enterprise Internet Reputation Management SOA IPR FIAM Alumni CRM Biometric Authentication Methods Single- Sign-On Cloud Simulation Improves Student/Faculty Experience Personal Productivity Social CRM Social Learning Platform Lecture Capture & Retrieval Mobile Learning Smartphone "Cloud" Office Video Telepresence Tablet Social Media Improves Remember "Everything Is Relative" Hype Cycle Color Key Strategic Service: Social Learning Enabling Service Community Management Service Digital Rights Service

25 HE Scenarios Technological Decisions by Storytelling: From National Knowledge Factories To a Global Learning Ecosystem Perceived Quality Collectively Scale Scale of Market Cost-Effective Exclusive Only s Everybody's Scale Inclusive Standardized Me Not All About Personally

26 Everybody s : Strategic Technology Map Only s Me, Not Everybody's All About Organizational Efficiency Improves Institutional ROI ERP BPO EA SOA Web/App. Hosting CRM, Enroll. SaaS Admin App Shared Services Partner Relationship Management Cloud Services Brokerage Infrastructure as a Service CRM, Ret. SIS Standards FIAM Single- Sign-On Citizen Developers WaaS LMS Improves Student/Faculty Experience Personal Productivity Adaptive Learning Lecture Capture & Retrieval Social Learning Platform Mashups MOOC Adaptive E-Textbooks Mobile Learning Smartphone E-Textbook "Cloud" Office Cloud Augmented Tablet Reality Virtual Environments/ Virtual Worlds Social Media Improves Remember "Everything Is Relative" Hype Cycle Color Key Strategic Services: Adaptive Learning Enablement Service Sourcing Optimization Service

27 HE Scenarios Technological Decisions by Storytelling: From Correspondence Courses To Brokerage Perceived Quality Collectively Exclusive Only s Me Not Everybody's All About Scale Inclusive Reach Flexible Personally Consumerized Speed to Market

28 All About : Strategic Technology Map Only s Me, Not Everybody's All About Organizational Efficiency Improves Institutional ROI Predictive Analytics ERP Big Data BPO SOA SaaS Admin App Partner Relationship Management Cloud Services Brokerage Infrastructure as a Service WaaS Open Microcredentials Citizen Developers Learning Stack Social Learning Platform OpenID Cloud Storage Sync. Cloud E-book Readers Virtual Environments/ Virtual Worlds Improves Student/Faculty Experience Personal Productivity Adaptive Learning Tutor Relationship Management MOOC Mashups Mobile Learning Smartphone Adaptive E-textbooks Mashware E-Textbook "Cloud" Office Game Consoles as Media Hubs Tablet Social Media Improves Remember "Everything Is Relative" Hype Cycle Color Key Strategic Services: Predictive Analytics Service Content Delivery Optimization Service Cloud Delivery Optimization Service

29 Your? Reminder: Remember Your Story Perceived Quality Collectively Only s Everybody's Exclusive Scale Inclusive Me, Not All About Personally

30 Your? Strategic Technology Map 2018 (2023) Organizational Efficiency Improves Institution ROI x Top Seven Strategic Technological Capabilities to Support Your Future niversity Improves Student/Faculty/Staff Experience Personal Productivity

31 Strategic Direction and Timing: Connecting the Dots in the Education HC/STM Mashup Organizational Efficiency Improves Institutional ROI COBIT EA SOA Web/App. Hosting CRM, Ret. BPO SaaS Admin App OSS OSS Fin. SIS SIS Data Interoperability ITIL OSS Middleware Suites OC IAM Cloud Faculty WaaS Improves Student/Faculty Experience Personal Productivity Adaptive Learning CRM, Enroll. Lecture Learning Capture Stack & Retrieval SIS Social Learning Standards Platform Mashups LMS Open Microcredentials Adaptive FIAM E-Textbooks Mobile Learning Smartphone E-Textbook "Cloud" Office Tablet MOOC Social Media E-Book Readers Improves Remember "Everything Is Relative" Hype Cycle Color Key Strategic Services: Digitalized Flexible Learning Service (Learning Stack Service)

32 A Final Word "Thus, the task is not so much to see what no one yet has seen, but to think what nobody yet has thought about that which everybody sees." Arthur Schopenhauer, "Leadership is the art of getting someone else to do something you want done because he wants to do it. " Dwight D Eisenhower

33 Recommended Gartner Research Visual Strategic Planning sing the Gartner Higher Education 'Business Model' Scenarios and Corresponding Strategic Technology Maps Introducing Visual Strategic Planning sing Four Higher Education 'Business Model' Scenarios and Strategic Technology Maps Higher Education 'Business Model' Scenarios and Corresponding Strategic Technology Map Only s Focuses on Brilliance for the Market Higher Education 'Business Model' Scenarios and Corresponding Strategic Technology Map Me, Not Looks to Edge in the Market Higher Education 'Business Model' Scenarios and Corresponding Strategic Technology Map Everybody's Leverages Scale of the Market Higher Education 'Business Model' Scenarios and Corresponding Strategic Technology Map All About Seeks Speed to Market Toolkit: Workshop for Building a Strategic Technology Map to Support Your Future niversity Predictions for the Higher Education 'Business Model' Landscape in 2025 and Beyond Will Help CIOs Plan Now The Gartner Higher Education Business Model Scenarios: Digitalization Drives Disruptive Innovation and Changes the Balance

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