State of the Commercial Real Estate Loan Market Shown through data collected and analyzed by DebtX. Karen Johnson & Bruce Hounsell August 25, 2015
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1 State of the Commercial Real Estate Loan Market Shown through data collected and analyzed by DebtX Karen Johnson & Bruce Hounsell August 25, 2015
2 Overview of Presentation o Introduction o Liquidity o Risk o Pricing o Conclusion
3 State of the Commercial Real Estate Loan Market Introduction: Today s Topic DebtX Data measuring Liquidity, Risk and Price helps identify trends in loan pricing & valuation of both Performing and Non-Performing Loans.
4 Introduction: DebtX Background o Loan Sale Advisory A full service, end-to-end solution for selling loans o Web-Based Deal Management Software-as-a Service platforms for syndication, agency and loan sale professionals o Loan Valuation / Data Services Loan valuation, analysis and research
5 Liquidity: Non-Performing Loans Historical Liquidity for Non-Performing Loans as measured by Investor Participation Average per Deal Investors in Superficial Due Diligence Investors in Full Due Diligence Investors in Summary Due Diligence Number of Bids
6 Liquidity: Mixed-Quality Performing Loans Historical Liquidity for Mixed-Quality Performing Loans as measured by Investor Participation Investors in Superficial Due Diligence Investors in Full Due Diligence Average per Deal Investors in Summary Due Diligence Number of Bids
7 o DXScore is a numerical loan rating system for commercial and multifamily loans o Effectively a FICO score for CRE loans o Measures Loans Bundle of Risks (LTV, DSC, Pay History, Tenant Rollover Risk, etc.) o Calibrated based on Relationship of Risk Measures with Events of Default and Losses over Time o DebtX Standard Calibration: 0 (worst loans) to 120 (best loans) o Enables Easy Comparison of Heterogeneous Assets o Consistent, Objective & Unbiased o Transparent, Auditable and Repeatable Methodology Risk: Introduction to DXScore
8 Risk: Historical Default Rate DXScore v. Default Rate Performing CMBS Loans as of 12/31/ % 7,000 Default Rate 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Loan Count 0.0% 0 DXScore Loan Count 1-Year Default Rate 2-Year Default Rate 3-Year Default Rate
9 Risk: New Origination Loans are Trending Riskier 40.0% DXScore by Percentage of Loan Count 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Originations 2012 Originations 2013 Originations 2014 Originations 2015 Originations Straight Averages Standard Deviation 3-Yr Expected Default Rate* % % % % % *Expected Default Rate asssumed Actual Year Default Figures.
10 Risk: Seasoned Loans are Showing Improvement 30% Portolio Distribution DXScore By Loan Count 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
11 Risk: Select Member/Loan Ranking by Risk Quadrant Select Member DXScore & Loan Count Individual DXScore Sorted High to Low Portfolio Size (by loan count, smallest to largest) 60 Individual Loans
12 Risk: Select Member Ranking by Risk Quadrant Risk Quadrant DXScore and Standard Deviation DXScore Standard Deviation
13 Pricing: Secondary Market NPL Historical Non-Performing Loan Prices 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Non-Performing CRE Loans, Price Level 10 Year Average 0%
14 Pricing: NPL Pricing Distribution 90.0% Non-Performing Loan Volume by Pricing Cohort 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 5 Year History, Purchase Volume Percent 1 Year History, Purchase Volume Percent Full History, Purchase Volume Percent
15 Pricing: Secondary Market Mixed Performing Historical Mixed Quality Performing Loan Prices 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Mixed Quality Performing CRE Loans, Price Level 10 Year Average 0%
16 Pricing: Mixed Performing Pricing Distribution Mixed Quality Performing Loan Volume by Pricing Cohort 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5 Year, Purchase Volume Percent 1 Year, Purchase Volume Percent Full History, Purchase Volume Percent
17 Pricing: New Origination Spreads Non-Agency Multifamily Spreads 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13 1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14 1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15 Non-CMBS (all) Non-CMBS (10-Year) Broker Compilation (10-Year, LTV<60%) Broker Compilation (10-Year, LTV>60%) CMBS (10-Year) 4.5% Commercial Real Estate Spreads (excluding multifamily) 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13 12/13 1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14 1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 10/15 11/15 12/15 Non-CMBS (all) Non-CMBS (10-Year) Broker Compilation (10-Year, LTV<60%) Broker Compilation (10-Year, LTV>60%) CMBS (10-Year)
18 Pricing: Historical CMBS Spreads
19 Conclusions: Liquidity, Risk & Price o Liquidity is High Trending Flat (Secondary Market) and Still Increasing (Primary Market) o Risk of New Loans is Increasing; Risk of Seasoned Loans is Decreasing o Pricing seems to have Bottomed after becoming Less Profitable for the past Several Years
20 Conclusions: Trends o Technology is Easing Entry to Markets o Pressures are Unlikely to Ease Significantly Near Term o Banks Market Share under Threat from Shadow Banks o But, Lending Market is Growing due to Innovative Products o Embrace new Technology to Capture Fees and Market Share o Shadow Banks could see More Regulation o Wild-cards include Rising Interest Rate Environment and Unknown Economic Future
21
22 Pledging Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Loan Collateral presented by Scott Stansberry - Vice President, Credit Risk Director
23 CRE Selection Criteria Building Partnerships. Serving Communities. Participations 100% Member/ Affiliate Owned Senior Lien Position LTV<100% Employee Loans - Ineligible Eligibility DSCR>1.0X* 30+ DQ or Classified - Ineligible Construction & Raw Land Loans - Ineligible Assignment of Leases & Rents *Exceptions: Temporary Impairment or Escrow NOTE: Highlighted eligibility requirements. The complete selection criteria guidelines available on Member Link. 23
24 Collateral Procedures & Selection Criteria Building Partnerships. Serving Communities. 24
25 CRE & Multifamily Over-Collateralization Requirements (OCR) Building Partnerships. Serving Communities. Minimum CRE Over-Collateralization Requirement Specific Listings/Physical Possession 155% OCR 64.5% Advance Rate Blanket Reporting 165% OCR 60.6% Advance Rate Minimum Multifamily Over-Collateralization Requirement Specific Listings/Physical Possession 140% OCR 71.4% Advance Rate Blanket Reporting 155% OCR 64.5% Advance Rate 25
26 Establishing Over-Collateralization Requirements (OCR) Building Partnerships. Serving Communities. Whole Loan Collateral OCR Holding Periods Market Stress Credit Stress Liquidity Premium Liquidation Costs Market Value Adjustment 26
27 Valuation: CRE Whole Loan Collateral Building Partnerships. Serving Communities. Delinquency History Property Type Interest Rate & Rate Type DSC Remaining Term LTV Discount Rate Interest Only Discount Rate Loan Cash Flow Model Estimated Market Value 27
28 CRE Collateral Loan Pricing Sensitivity Analysis Building Partnerships. Serving Communities. Key Loan Characteristics Impact Pricing *Loan collateral market values capped at par 28
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