Monitoring The New Information Economy 6th Trend Report 2006

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1 Monitoring The New Information Economy 6th Trend Report 2006 Produced by: Institute for Information Economics (IIE) Dr. Willi Bredemeier Hattingen, April 2006 Trend Report April 2006/1

2 Future Outlook of German New Economy ( ) 297 Best Brains about the German New Economy peer into the crystal ball: Current Business Climate - Anticipated Developments Current Employment Climate - Anticipated Developments Enterprise Strategies (Mergers & Acquisitions Inhouse Information Technology - Convergence) Employment Strategies ( Qualification Climate - Flexibility of Labour - Outsourcing, Nearshoring, Offshoring) Expanding Business Areas (Most Promising Business Areas - International Competitivity - most important competitors and their profiles submarket prospects - R&D breakthroughs) Market Driver and Market Barriers (Open Source software/linux E-Government - Financing SMEs) Which Economic Policy? Trend Report April 2006/2

3 Business Climate (1): Experiences % 11% 32% My own enterprise 57% 43% My own economic sector 46% Up Stagnation in comparison to previous year Down Acceleration of positive developments - but also stagnation. Trend Report April 2006/3

4 Business Climate (2): Expectations % 8% 28% My own enterprise 63% 42% My own economic sector 50% Up Stagnation in comparison to previous year Down 2006 will be the best year since 2001/2002. Trend Report April 2006/4

5 Business Climate (3): Determinants Economic Framework 3.32 Developments of the Economy 1.38 Developments of Markets and Economic Sub-Sectors 5.40 Demand, Client Investments 2.97 The Enterprise in Action 1.84 Strategies 4.18 New Products, New Business Areas 0.81 Marketing, Sales 5.40 Psychological Climate Political Factors 0.47 Total 2.26 Indicator Value: Number of optimistic answers divided by number of pessimistic answers Better climate than ever - but in some areas, switches from innovation to price competition strategies. Trend Report April 2006/5

6 Business Climate (4): Developments Indicator of Business Climate Indicator value: Number of optimistic answers divided by number of pessimistic answers Trend Report April 2006/6

7 Employment Climate (1): Experiences 2005 Experiences up to 2001: The biggest bottleneck 2002: The biggest change in climate since 1999, for the worse 23% My own enterprise 37% 30% My own economic sector 21% 40% 49% More employees Stagnation Fewer employees Uncertainties Once Again - Stabilisation Primary Goal of Employment Policy Trend Report April 2006/7

8 Employment Climate (2): Expectations % My own enterprise 43% 25% My own economic sector 32% 43% 43% More employees Stagnation Fewer employees Growth (but not much) Outsourcing and Flexibility of Labour on the Rise Trend Report April 2006/8

9 Employment Climate (3): Determinants Indicator Value: number of optimistic comments divided by the number of sceptical comments Economic Framework Demand, Investment of the Clients The Enterprise in Action Strategies Total The enterprise views its own potential to increase employment sceptically, and the importance of the economic framework is emphasized. Trend Report April 2006/9

10 Qualification Climate Indicator value: Number of optimistic answers divided by number of pessimistic answers Inside the enterprise Public educational institutions Private educational institutions Political institutions and political framework Total Since 2001, the qualification climate has continually declined. Trend Report April 2006/10

11 Long-term Developments of Qualification Climate In the election year 2006, dramatic decreases of acceptance values of the political sector are seen. Long-term orientations is lacking in all areas. The role of the scapegoat is ascribed to public educational institutions, to politics, to enterprises, and again, to politics. Recruiting and in-house qualifications function well. E-Learning has no particular priority. During the last six years co-operation between business and educational institutions has continually improved. A deep communication gap exists between the Information Economy and politics. Trend Report April 2006/11

12 Flexibility of Labour? Freelance Fixed-term contract Outsourcing Nearshoring School marks from 1 ( very good ) to 6 ( insufficient ) Flexibility of labour has become more important. But the various forms of flexibility 2.83 are only a supplementary tool to the traditional organization of work Additional important forms of flexibility are enterprise-wide cooperation in networks, other kinds of flexibility such as hours and location as well as the establishment of prospective job positions (trainees, secondary employment market). Offshoring Total Flexibility of labour reduces cost, increases know-how and ensures quality. Trend Report April 2006/12

13 Outsourcing, Nearshoring, Offshoring Outsourcing School marks from 1 ( very good ) to 6 ( insufficient ) Outsourcing, but also nearshoring and offshoring have become legitimate and most promising practices in the New Information Economy with increasing importance for big corporations as well as for SMEs. Nearshoring 3.90 Outsourcing is a project of cost reduction, above all reducing employment costs. Offshoring Total Business and political initiatives to make Germany more attractive for national and international businesses might slow down the trend to nearshoring and offshoring and reduce the national loss of jobs. Trend Report April 2006/13

14 Mergers & Acquisitions (1) 4.73 School marks from 1 ( very good ) to 6 ( insufficient ) Possibility of takeover of my enterprise Expansion of my enterprise Total M&A-Strategies in young markets: growth oriented - money oriented - innovation oriented - internationalisation. M&A-Strategies on established markets: eliminating competitors - cost and process oriented. M&A new determinants of business and employment climate - Between 15 % and 46 % of the experts have experiences in M&A. Trend Report April 2006/14

15 Mergers & Acquisitions (2): Advantages - Disadvantages The most important advantages + Growth, more revenue, critical mass for further expansion is reached, more clients. + Diversification, more products, new business areas. + More know-how, better (technological) competencies, innovation and research. + Stronger national and international market presence. The most important disadvantages - Preparation and implementation of M&A is seldom successful, and the costs are high. - Internal bureaucracy - hopes of synergistic effects are not being fulfilled. - Forming of monopolies, SMEs with less opportunities after M&A. - Constant reduction of work force. A debate has to take place about when M&A makes sense and how the M&A process can be made more efficient and professional. Trend Report April 2006/15

16 Further Development of Internal IT School marks from 1 ( very good ) to 6 ( insufficient ) IT security except biometry Collaboration, workflow management Knowledge management Business Intelligence, Data mining Document management Content Management E-Learning, blended learning Expert systems Biometry 4.04 Total 2.85 The biometry opportunities do not appear to be as positive in the medium term. Trend Report April 2006/16

17 Convergence School marks from 1 ( very good ) to 6 ( insufficient ) Communication (e.g. VoIP) 1.98 Transaction (e.g. Online-Payments) Triple Play (networking of Internet, Telephone and Television) Information (e.g. Digital Archives for all media) Total Hardware (e.g. enrichment of mobile devices) Entertainment (e.g. Digital Home) The hype about Triple Play is not confirmed by this survey. Trend Report April 2006/17

18 Top Business by School Marks IT security inside the Internet IT security inside the enterprise VoIP Media covergence RFID E-Commerce (B2B) Mobile communication E-Commerce (B2C) E-Government E-Business Information services Software School marks from 1 ( very good ) to 6 ( insufficient ) The best year ever in the business cycle - but are we losing long-term growth opportunities? Trend Report April 2006/18

19 Additional Business Areas by School Marks School marks from 1 ( very good ) to 6 ( insufficient ) E-Health Digital Television M-Commerce E-Banking T-Commerce Virtual markets E-Brokerage Digital radio Hardware The difference between existing potential and real developments are greater in the public sector than anywhere else (E-Government and E-Health) Trend Report April 2006/19

20 International Competitiveness (1) School marks from 1 ( very good ) to 6 ( insufficient ) Security Voice over IP, Mobile communication Media convergence Digital Radio, Digital Television RFID E-Business Software Information services Transaction services E-Government, E-Health Hardware 2.70 (2.02) 2.82 (2.28) 2.93 (2.34) 2.93 (3.07) 2.96 (2.35) 3.05 (2.59) 3.07 (2.63) 3.09 (2.62) 3.18 (2.87) 3.27 (2.63) 3.71 (3.35) In almost every business area, business prospects were rated higher than international competitiveness. Trend Report April 2006/20

21 Internat. Competitiveness of World Regions (2) Worldwide market leadership in % of the answers USA East Asia except Japan Europe Japan Scandinavian countries United Kingdom France In just six years, Europe has decisively lost market share to East Asia (apart from Japan). Trend Report April 2006/21

22 International Competitiveness (3) USA: in 17 out of 21 business areas the world market leader - especially strong in young and fast rising markets - weaknesses only in hardware and mobile communication. East Asia (except Japan): world market leader in hardware - very strong in software and mobile communication - in comparison to Europe almost without weaknesses, except E-Government and E-Health Japan: losing against the rest of East Asia, but winning against all other world regions - world market leader in Digital Television (together with USA) - further strengths in consumer and mobility markets. Europe: almost no European strength except E-Government and E-Health. India on the Rise. Trend Report April 2006/22

23 International Competitiveness (4) Scandinavian Countries: strength of well-governed welfare states in the public and semi-public sector - mobile communication - E-Banking. Great Britain: strength of a world finance center - also Digital Television, Digital Radio and E-Government. Germany: sector-specific applications - customization - market volume. France: losing its place among the world s leading information economies. Subsidizing High-Technology in Europe cannot be based on common strategies. Trend Report April 2006/23

24 Prospects of Submarkets School marks from 1 ( very good ) to 6 ( insufficient ) Information Technology 2.55 Hardware 3.83 Software 2.68 IT-Services/Consulting 2.01 IT Security 1.76 Telecommunication 2.88 Broadcast Services 2.33 Fixed Network Voice and Data 3.09 Services UMTS 2.85 Other Network Infrastructure 2.67 Local Fixed Network Equipment 3.79 Local Broadcast Equipment 2.61 Online Content 2.33 Games 2.25 Video 2.49 Music 2.23 Information Services 2.28 Infrastructural Requirements 2.55 DSL 1.73 Cable Modem 3.23 Satellite 2.74 RFID 2.45 All Submarkets 2.61 Trend Report April 2006/24 Positive Outlook for Online Content (broadly defined) in Consumer Markets. School marks from 1 ( very good ) to 6 ( insufficient )

25 R&D Breakthroughs? Opportunities in Submarkets: 1. Telecommunication 34 % - 2. Software 30 % - 3. Professional Online Content 5 % - Hardware 4 %. Software Opportunities: 1. Security - 2. Sector specific applications - 3. Mobile applications - 4. E- and M-Commerce - 5. Operating systems, Interface design, Standards - 6. Speech recognition - 7. Artificial Intelligence - 8. Knowledge management. Application Opportunities: 1. E-Government - 2. E-Health - 3. Automative, Traffic infrastructure - 4. Financial services. R&D in Telecommunications: strongly growing for the last six years in data transfer, networking and mobile communication - new F&E areas RFID und VoIP. Online Content: decreasing from 7 % to 5 % in six years - losing its role as frontrunner - but also new prospects appearing in interactivity, communications and collaboration. 96 % of the experts: Anticipating Further Breakthroughs Trend Report April 2006/25

26 Open Source-Software/Linux (1) I'm ready to pay more for services and support of Open Source Software or Linux 74.4% Open Source-Software is not used and is also not planned 29.7% Open Source-Software is not currently used, is however planned in the near future 18.7% In my field of work and responsibility Open Source- Software such as Linux is already used 55.6% Trend Report April 2006/26

27 Open Source/Linux (2): Advantages - Disadvantages Advantages indicator: 2.1 (2,1 times more positive than negative answers). Division of problem areas: Technical Problems 34 % - Availability, Development and Innovation problems 22 % - Financial Problems 16 % - Usage und Application possibilities 14 % - Arguments versus Microsoft 5 % - Qualification problems in Applications 3.1 % - Competitiveness of Suppliers 2.6 %. Advantage indicator Financial Reasons considerable competitive advantage. Advantages Innovative capability, multi-faceted further developments, high tempo in development, expansive room for creativity are necessarily associated with disadvantages ( Lack of further development, too great the variety, chaotic developments ) and lead to problems in installation, updating and long term availability. Technical advantages in security, transparency, stability and flexibility Lack of support with a disadvantage indicator of 0.12 (8 times more critical than positive comments) - no standards, no standard software lack of compatibility, ability to configure, network and inter-operability lack of documentation und ultimate responsibility. Competitiveness of the suppliers has to be increased - necessary qualifications of users not available. Trend Report April 2006/27

28 E-Government School marks from 1 ( very good ) to 6 ( insufficient ) Citizen services 1.61 Co-operation between administrative units 1.62 Modernization of administration 1.64 Business services (e.g. E-procurement, tender) 1.73 Total 1.66 E-Government is better than ever, but expectations are even higher. Trend Report April 2006/28 Monitoring new Information Economy 6th Trend Report

29 Financing SMEs and Young Enterprises 44% 29% 13% 7-12% Banks are not really helpful Politics and subsidiy politics are needed Entrpreneurs should be qualified Financing SMEs and young enterprises is no problem All comments about banks were of a critical nature. They will not help. They are not competent. Basel II is seen as a risk avoidance strategy by standardization. The Best Possible Help for Entrepreneurs Comes from Entrpreneurs (Business Angels). Trend Report April 2006/29

30 Political Necessities for Action (1) Modernisation of public administration, e.g. by E-Government 1.79 More services for the citizens by E-Government 1.84 Improving the framework of taxes and regulation to meet the challenges of international competition 1.88 Improving IT security in the Internet 2.14 Internet access for everybody 2.17 Advancement of newly set-up businesses 2.19 Average evaluation of all areas 2.39 Improving media competency 2.39 Improving the communication and co-operation between politics and the New Economy 2.40 IT Security inside the company 2.46 Deregulation of the labour market 2.50 Supporting e-business in SMEs 2.53 Eliminating digital divides 2.68 Mobile access to the Internet 2.72 Deregulation of economic sectors which are very important customers to the New Economy (e.g. transportation, health) 2.72 Co-operation between suppliers and clients 2.76 School marks from 1 ( very good ) to 6 ( insufficient ) Trend Report April 2006/30

31 Political Necessities for Action (2) Priority Areas: Modernization of administration Deregulation Supporting research Coming Up: Security Other areas Market development - subsidies Eliminating digital divides The forgotten areas. Trend Report April 2006/31

32 Berichterstattung Downlad free under Summary of the 9th Factual Report and the 6th Trend Report Trend Report: Business Climate Employment Climate Strategies at Enterprise Level Qualification Strategies New and Expanding Business Areas Market Driver and Market Barriers Necessities for Political Action Trend Report April 2006/32

33 Your Contact: IIE Institute for Information Economics Erzbergerstraße 9-11 D Hattingen Dr. Willi Bredemeier ( ) ( ) Trend Report April 2006/33

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