Technical Assistance to Further Development of Kosovo s Trade Policy

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1 Technical Assistance to Further Development of Kosovo s Trade Policy An EU funded Project managed by the European Union Office in Kosovo Ministry Of Trade And Industry

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3 Table of contents Foreword from Ms. Sytrime Dervisholli, Director of Trade Department, MTI...4 Foreword from M. Samuel Žbogar, Head of EU Office in Kosovo/EU Special Representative...5 Project Overview...6 Component 1: A more detailed look at Trade Policy activities...9 Component 2: A more detailed look at Impact Assessment activities Component 3: A more detailed look at Trade Openness activities Component 4: A more detailed look at Trade Statistics activities Case study Visualisation - Case Study Case study Case study Case study Project Achievements Publications... 22

4 Foreword from Ms. Sytrime Dervisholli, Director of Trade Department, Ministry of Trade and Industry Ladies and Gentlemen, I have the great pleasure to present the main achievements of the EU Trade Policy Project that started four years ago. Project activities concentrated on issues which are seen as very important for the conduct of trade policy in the country, moving toward the EU and integrating further into the broad European economy, and the global one. Priority was first given to the preparation of trade negotiations with the EU, with the so-called Study on Impact Assessment (SIA). That study was complemented with sectorial studies, which permitted to send the first tariff offer to the EU. Following successful negotiations, the Stabilisation and Association Agreement is expected to be ratified soon and will start being implemented next year. Another major pillar of the project is supporting Kosovo participation in CEFTA, especially the on-going negotiations on trade in services, and non-tariff barriers. The project also promoted work on trade defense instruments, with a reference to the WTO and EU frameworks. In addition, one of the indirect outcomes of the Project is the creation of a more business conducive environment in Kosovo, which is quite important for promoting entrepreneurship and attracting FDIs. For all activities, Project experts worked very closely with the Trade Department of the Ministry of Trade and Industry and other important state bodies, including the Ministry of Agriculture, the Food and Veterinary Agency, the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank of Kosovo, the Kosovo Office of Statistics, and the Customs. On-the-job training (OJT) was essential for preparing all studies and policy papers, which is seen as a precondition for a real ownership of the results and the sustainability of achievements. I would like to thank the Project Team, and also the team of the Trade Department. Both teams established very strong links and cooperated with enthusiasm. Enjoy the reading of this small brochure. Sytrime Dervisholli Director of Trade Department, Ministry of Trade and Industry 4

5 Foreword from M. Samuel Žbogar, Head of EU Office in Kosovo/EU Special Representative The upcoming Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU, including the free trade aspects, will signal a very important step for Kosovo s European path. Among other issues, Kosovo s exporters will be able to benefit from uniform standards, rules and regulations, which will offer better access to all 28 EU member countries and over 500 million consumers. For a small economy with relatively narrow production base, trade openness is vital to ensuring economic development and growth. If properly implemented, the SAA will result in gradual introduction of higher standards for consumer protection, leading to an increased safety for the Kosovo consumers. More competition is expected to contribute to lower prices and a bigger assortment of goods and services for the Kosovo people to choose from. Kosovo faces many issues, such as high unemployment, the associated poverty and a low GDP per capita. To address them, there is a need for a robust economic growth that will result in more jobs and higher income. An effective export-oriented trade policy will play a crucial role to this effect. From October 2011 until October 2015, the EU funded the Trade Policy Project (budget of EUR 2.8 million) to assist the Government of Kosovo to build institutional structures to enter negotiations on the trade liberalization within the SAA framework. In that way, the EU supported the Ministry of Trade and Industry to develop its institutional capacity to prepare negotiating positions and to implement agreed policy initiatives in line with international trade requirements and EU practices. The project has also aided Kosovo s pursuit of integration into the global trading economy through support in four areas: Trade Policy, Trade Analysis, Trade Openness and Trade Statistics, which needed to be strengthened before the Government could enter trade negotiations. The Ministry of Trade and Industry has been the main beneficiary of the project together with the Ministry for European Integration, the Ministry of Finance (Macroeconomic Unit), the Statistical Office of Kosovo and the Central Bank of Kosovo. I want to thank everyone involved in the project for contributing to its successful implementation. I am confident that Kosovo is now equipped with capacities necessary to steer implementation of the SAA. Samuel Žbogar Head of EU Office in Kosovo/EU Special Representative 5

6 Project Overview Project Purpose The purpose of the EUR 2,8 million EU Trade Policy Project is to help Kosovo build the institutional structures needed to negotiate the trade aspects of the Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) and to implement agreed policy initiatives in line with international trade requirements and EU practices. It was a four-year project in all, implemented in two phases. Phase I kicked off in October Phase II commenced in December The project was completed in October Both phases were organised into the following 4 components. Component 1 Trade Policy The basic objective of this component was to advance integration with the EU in all aspects of international trade in goods and services. It helped the relevant Kosovo authorities prepare for the issues that will be raised when preparing negotiations, negotiating per se, and subsequently implementing, Chapter 30 of the Acquis on External Relations. The project also developed Kosovo s CEFTA membership and relations with EFTA. Key activities included: Developing appropriate tactics, strategies and trade negotiation skills (training, coaching, and on-thejob training) Providing ad hoc advice on participation in CEFTA and technical support to draft position papers Exploring a closer stance to the WTO Component 2 Impact Assessment Under this component the project helped enhance the capacities of the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) to prepare relevant analyses of the international economy and the impacts of policy changes and international trade agreements on the economy of Kosovo. Key activities included: Deepening trade analysis skills Enhancing the use of advanced statistical and econometric methods Using specialised software and data bases for trade policy analysis Preparing for the possible development of Computable General Equilibrium Models CGEMs Preparing a study on impact assessment (SIA) of a trade liberalization with the EU, within the SAA framework Supporting the drafting of an initial tariff offer with the EU, based on identified sensitive sectors/ products, the SIA and sectorial studies 6

7 Component 3 Trade Openness The purpose of this component was to ensure a better understanding amongst relevant authorities of the significance of tariffs and Value Added Tax (VAT) policies for the economic development of Kosovo. It also prepared the MTI to use trade defense instruments, in particular anti-dumping and safeguard measures, and non-tariff barriers. Key activities included: Providing specialist advice and training on border protection, VAT, the impacts of tariffs, the use of trade defense instruments (TDIs), and non- tariff barriers (NTBs) Implementing workshops and in-depth analyses of the impact of trade liberalisation on export competitiveness and the production of selected services/products and sectors in Kosovo Organising study tours to make links with foreign trade policy organisations Component 4 Trade statistics Work carried out under this component helped enhance the quality of statistics available to the MTI. The quality of the statistics used has a direct bearing on the quality of the scenarios, analyses and positions that can be developed. Key activities included: Designing the web-platform Report a foreign trade barrier Why the European Union (EU) is supporting Kosovo in its efforts to liberalise trade under the SAA Since its inception the European Union has developed an ever-widening zone of peace and prosperity in Europe that has managed to withstand even the serious financial threats of recent times. Compliance with the trade aspects of the SAA s standards, rules and regulations will offer Kosovo s exporters access to the EU s 500 million consumers market. For a small economy with a narrow production base such as Kosovo, trade openness is vital to ensure economic development and growth. Kosovo s high unemployment, the associated poverty and the low per capita GDP call for economic growth to create more jobs and higher incomes. An effective export-oriented trade policy will play a crucial role to this effect. The successful implementation of the comprehensive and ambitious Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA), including the free trade aspects, will signal a very important step to deepening Kosovo s integration into the EU. Kosovo s exporters will be able to benefit from uniform standards, rules and regulations which will offer access to all 28 EU member countries and 500 million consumers, as indeed to the other CEFTA countries. The SAA will greatly raise Kosovo s commercial appeal, especially given its importance as a low cost gateway to the EU and its youthful population. The current portfolio of EU funds to Kosovo is now around EUR 70 million per year in IPA (Instrument for Pre-Accession) grant funds. That is in addition to the direct funds provided by the international cooperation agencies of Member States. Much of that is used to support the economy and develop an infrastructure that promotes competitive enterprises and full integration into the global economy. 7

8 This is part of the EU s effort to create jobs, reduce poverty and create the conditions for long-term sustainable and inclusive growth, taking into account environmental dimensions and the needs of all groups which constitute the Kosovar society. The SAA is part of the process followed by other Member States as they prepared to become part of the European Union s integrated common markets. The EU is contributing hundreds of millions of euro in Kosovo to help put in place systems and regulations that support competition, and to help Kosovo s businesses boost the quality of their products and services to meet EU standards. This will improve their access to EU markets, help attract investors and boost the economy, including the contribution of small and medium enterprises (SMEs). 8

9 Component 1: A more detailed look at Trade Policy activities Trade Policy The basic objective of the first component of the EU Trade Policy Project was to ensure that relevant policy experts are well prepared for the issues that will be raised when negotiating, and subsequently implementing, Chapter 30 of the Acquis on External Relations 1. During Phase I of the project, Kosovo supported the restructuring and developed the capacities of the Trade department (see case study 2). During Phase II, the project helped: Develop Kosovo s CEFTA membership into a force for Kosovo s further integration in the region Prepare responses to the issues likely to be raised during negotiations of Chapter 30 of the Acquis Enhance understanding of the role of international trade policy among officials at MTI and other traderelated institutions Develop a single unified Trade in Services (TIS) Database into which a wide range of relevant information can be inputted to provide negotiators with relevant and reliable data. The database, which has 5 parts, provides key-information to Kosovo s policy makers and negotiators and is being used extensively and will be further developed- by government institutions involved in trade in services. (see case study 3) Prepare for the Transposition of the EU Services Directive (Directive 2006/123/EC): The objective of the EU Services Directive is to release the untapped growth potential of the service markets in Europe by removing legal and administrative barriers to trade in services. The project started this process by reviewing existing national legislation and provided a 1st draft of the new horizontal law on services Support the implementation of the SAA Chapter on Competition Policy / State Aid. The project also helped prepare an initial draft of the National Plan for the Adoption of the Acquis (NPAA) in the field of competition policy and state aid Provide ad hoc advice on CEFTA participation and support to draft position papers. The Project helped the MTI prepare for CEFTA regular meetings on trade related issues. The support took the form of onthe-job-training, background notes, strategy papers, briefings and direct on site-advice to negotiators Further explore a closer stance to the WTO. A preliminary version of the so-called Memorandum on the Foreign Trade Regime (MoFTR) was drafted. A complete MoFTR will be required by the WTO following an application for either observer status or full membership Provide assistance to the Food and Veterinary Agency, as well as to other relevant stakeholders (Ministry of Agriculture, Customs, Ministry of European Integration, Trade Department at the Ministry of Trade and Industry, private sector food / feed business representatives). The support focused in particular on the contents and obligations arising from the SAA (Chapter 4, Agriculture and Fisheries) in general, and on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards (SPS; food safety) issues in particular (see case study 1) 1 The acquis is the accumulated legislation, legal acts, and court decisions which constitute the body of European Union law. It is divided into 35 chapters for the purpose of negotiation between the EU and the candidate member states. Chapter 30 refers mainly to mainly directly binding EU legislation which does not require transposition into national law. 9

10 Component 2: A more detailed look at Impact Assessment activities Impact Assessments Under this component the project worked to ensure that the MTI has the capacity to prepare relevant analyses of the international economy, and of the impacts of policy changes on the economy of Kosovo. This would enable it to better understand and negotiate special treatment for sensitive products. During phase I the project helped prepare the Sustainable Impact Assessment (SIA). This involved providing estimates of the potential impacts of trade liberalisation with the EU on imports, public finance, investments, output, employment and incomes. The aim was to identify products or clusters with a strong export growth potential, which may require longer transition periods before the complete elimination of import duties. The successful conclusion of the SIA was a pre requisite before SAA negotiations could be launched. During Phase II, the Trade Department staff, together with the project team, developed skills in quantitative analysis and statistics using specialized econometric software (see case study 4). A particular focus was on gravity modelling techniques and econometric methods for evaluating policy measures which help identify policy priorities and implementation tools. With the help of the project the MTI experts have now: Prepared fully relevant analyses of the international economy in order to better understand how policy changes will impact Kosovo s economy Arrived at informed trade policy decisions as a result of a systematic analysis of their consequences Worked with fundamental analytical and modelling tools, such as regression models. Prepared a list of sensitive products and discussed these with other trade-related Ministries. Drafted negotiating positions relating to the treatment of sensitive products submitted to the Cabinet Developed and published trade strategy documents on selected topics with support from project experts Participated effectively in SAA negotiations drawing on evidence-based trade policy analytical papers developed in-house 10

11 Component 3: A more detailed look at Trade Openness activities Trade Openness The purpose of this component is to ensure a better understanding amongst relevant authorities of the significance of tariffs and VAT (Value Added Tax) exemptions for the economic development of Kosovo. As international trade agreements are negotiated, there is usually a call to protect various domestic industries with trade defense instruments (TDIs) and other measures. These include VAT exemptions, import duties/ tariffs, non-trade barriers, and other measures to safeguard against countervailing measures/duties. Such moves have wider implications, which need to be understood, and it is important that relevant stakeholders are aware of the significance of these for Kosovo s integration into the global economy and for the development of the international trading capacity of Kosovo. In Phase I of the project all relevant stakeholders were made aware of the implications of tariffs and VAT exemptions for integration into the global and EU economies and of the need to develop the international trading capacity of Kosovo. Analyses and trade priorities for relevant economic clusters were provided for the revised VAT exemptions and tariff structure. In Phase II the project and the Trade Department: Cooperated with the Ministry of Finance to raise awareness about the implications of VAT and tariff setting on Kosovo s trade policy in support of bilateral and wider trade agreements, such as those that are part of the World Trade Organisation Improved understanding of the role and the limitations of the use of trade defense instruments as a means to protect the domestic economy and address what can be seen as unfair competition Revised and adopted VAT exemptions and tariff structure in close cooperation with the analyses and trade priorities for relevant clusters described under Component 2 Drafted the Administrative Instruction that is needed to implement the Anti-Dumping Law, and helped prepare for its effective implementation. Prepared a list of sensitive products and discussed these with other trade-related Ministries. Participated effectively in SAA negotiations drawing on evidence-based trade policy analytical papers developed in-house Prepared analytical and advisory reports reviewing the use of TDIs and corresponding regulatory frameworks proposed in GATT, SAA, CEFTA and bilateral trade agreements. It also considered their actual and potential uses by Kosovo authorities, drawing on existing data, and the resources and the needs of the country Provided on-the-job training on TDIs, based on actual cases in Kosovo and other relevant material 11

12 Component 4: A more detailed look at Trade Statistics activities Trade Statistics In phase I of the project, the team focused on improving the quality of trade statistics. In phase II the team switched its attention to support a more streamlined communication with the private sector. Key activities over the course of the entire project included: Analysis and evaluation of the current status of trade statistics in Kosovo, based on data produced by Kosovo s main trade partners (so-called mirror statistics). Establishment of a Statistical Coordination Group, including representatives of the main generators of statistical data, KAS and CBK. The Group became fully functional and the first meetings were held in Support to customs services to use the ASYCUDA software. This is a programme that ensures alignment and coherence in trade data based on an intranet connection between state bodies. A formal agreement was concluded between Customs and MTI to grant TD/MTI direct access to ASYCUDA. Learning from others. The Project organised a study tour for MTI and KAS officers to ISTAT (Italy) with the aim to foster capacity building on the reliability and quality of trade statistics. The study tour was followed up with a closed workshop to discuss the lessons learnt and how the experiences gained from visiting ISTAT can help increase the quality of Kosovo trade data. Design of a web-platform to Report a foreign trade barrier. The Project has helped establish an electronic-platform for real-time reporting of barriers faced by business in foreign markets. The platform is located on the MTI website, however, links have been provided to other trade related government and non-government agencies, including business associations. The barriers reported may be related to export, import, and transit of goods. The platform is also designed to report barriers in export of services. The platform conforms to CEFTA reporting forms, and other international practices. 12

13 Case study 1 Working with the Dairy sector The dairy industry in Kosovo has much room for growth. As pointed out in the strategy for the dairy sector 2, the 26 FVA (Food and Veterinary Agency) licensed dairies and 2000 farmers 3 meet just one fifth of the current dairy demand. The dairy industry has developed a strategy to expand capacity to supply most of the milk demand in Kosovo by The Ministry of Agriculture and the European Union have helped by applying and expanding a scheme of grants and direct payments for the dairies and the milk producers. EU Trade Policy project is also helping. by providing assistance to the Food and Veterinary Agency (FVA) to implement the EU s SPS regulations and standards as mandated by specific Kosovo-EU Stabilisation & Association Agreement (SAA) provisions. This came after the Ministry of Trade & Industry (MTI) highlighted in the context of the CEFTA agreement, the propensity of food safety issues to cause trading problems amongst Kosovo s nearest trading partners. As part of this effort, the project helped 1. Analyse Kosovo s legal gaps relative to the EU s acquis communitaire 2. Draft Kosovo Regulations & Tables of Concordance on Nutrition Labelling and Nutrition & Health Claims in line with the EU s acquis communautaire 3. Analyse the Training Needs of the Food & Veterinary Agency 4. Prepare a Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA) on the legislative and institutional changes needed for Kosovo s Plant Health regime. 5. Advise about the possibility to be an observer at the Codex Alimenatrius CCEURO with other CEFTA countries with regard to use of palm oil in dairy products and imitation cheese products 6. Deliver a series of workshops to enhance knowledge and understanding of issues relating to: 2 http: /solidar-suisse-kos.org/tjera/fo/u/ pdf 3 October 2012 figures 13

14 Food Labelling Nutrition Labelling and Nutrition & Health Claims Plant Health (Momusha & Rohevec) Export Promotion of Food Products to the EU Export of Milk & Milk Products to the EU 7. Survey major Kosovo milk processors in order to assess progress carried out to date, and to identify what needs to be done to facilitate the export of milk & milk products to the EU. 8. Prepare a report and recommendations to the ministry, some of which may be supported through future EU projects. Including: 1. Complete market research to ascertain markets in need of dairy products: It is important to know where the opportunities lie and what products the markets are looking for. 2. Align and enforce all EU standards in Dairy sector: EU Food Safety standards are very stringent and must be followed in order to be able to export. They include traceability requirements for all product components. And in addition to food safety, individual EU Member States have introduced additional requirements regarding animal welfare & sustainability. 3. Establish a Kosovo Dairy Council. It is difficult to export milk products without a Strategy coordinated by the government. One of the tasks of the Dairy council should be to brand key dairy products (similar to Kerry gold butter or New Zealand lamb.) 4. Establish Kosovo Quality Assurance Scheme to be implemented by the Kosovo Dairy Council and duly publicized to consumers. Kosovo s consumers are not purchasing local dairy products, Retailers say packaging, logo, marketing, and distribution systems of importers are more competitive than local dairy products and this helps create a brand loyalty for imports. It is a matter of perception, for studies show that Kosovo s UHT milk & yoghurt is competitive in price with imported products and is of equal quality with imported dairy products. 14

15 Visualisation - Case Study 1 1. Analyse Kosovo s legal gaps relative to the EU s acquis communitaire 2.Draft Kosovo Regulations & Tables of Concordance on Nutrition Labelling and Nutrition & Health Claims in line with the EU s acquis communautaire 4. Prepare a Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA) on the legislative and institutional changes needed for Kosovo s Plant Health regime. 3. Analyse the Training Needs of the Food & Veterinary Agency 5. Advise about the possibility to be an observer at the Codex Alimenatrius CCEURO with other CEFTA countries with regard to use of palm oil in dairy products and imitation cheese products 6. Deliver a series of workshops to enhance knowledge and understanding of issues relating to: Food Labelling Nutrition Labelling and Nutrition & Health Claims Plant Health (Momusha & Rohevec) Export Promotion of Food Products to the EU Export of Milk & Milk Products to the EU 15

16 7. Survey major Kosovo milk processors in order to assess progress carried out to date, and to identify what needs to be done to facilitate the export of milk & milk products to the EU. 8. Prepare a report and recommendations to the ministry, some of which may be supported through future EU projects. Including: 1. Complete market research to ascertain markets in need of dairy products: It is important to know where the opportunities lie and what products the markets are looking for. 2. Align and enforce all EU standards in Dairy sector: EU Food Safety standards are very stringent and must be followed in order to be able to export. They include traceability requirements for all product components. And in addition to food safety, individual EU Member States have introduced additional requirements regarding animal welfare & sustainability. 3. Establish a Kosovo Dairy Council. It is difficult to export milk products without a Strategy coordinated by the government. One of the tasks of the Dairy council should be to brand key dairy products (similar to Kerry gold butter or New Zealand lamb.) 4. Establish Kosovo Quality Assurance Scheme to be implemented by the Kosovo Dairy Council and duly publicized to consumers. Kosovo s consumers are not purchasing local dairy products, Retailers say packaging, logo, marketing, and distribution systems of importers are more competitive than local dairy products and this helps create a brand loyalty for imports. It is a matter of perception, for studies show that Kosovo s UHT milk & yoghurt is competitive in price with imported products and is of equal quality with imported dairy products. 16

17 Case study 2 Supporting the Trade Department for modern policies The Trade Department (TD) of the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) plays a leading role in coordinating Kosovo s negotiation position. The negotiations involve agreeing new commitments for liberalising trade in services, investments, Intellectual Property Rights (IPRs) and other trade-related matters, as well as the preparation for trade negotiations with the EU, and other international organisations. For this it needed to develop a comprehensive and clear strategy based on sound analytical inputs, and an effective and efficient coordination and consultation within and outside the Ministry. Being more focused on administering and controlling markets and on monitoring trade flows, the Trade Department s old structure and functionality was ill-suited to the role of negotiator. Little use was made of systematic research, economic and policy analysis t o produce qualitative analysis. So, the first major project task was to help implement a major institutional restructuring and capacity development. One of the issues identified with the previous institutional structure was a lack of coordination, either within the ministry or across Government in general. The Trade Department had been using a more traditional model, which did not reflect the tasks of a modern trade policy administration. For example, it did not drive trade policymaking; there were no functioning working groups coordinating policies across government; and it also had a number of outdated functions, such as organising trade fairs, which are irrelevant to a modern trade policy department. The two Divisions were also functionally unrelated and almost none of the functions of the Market Regulation Division (except for trade remedies issues) were related to trade policy. Further to the project proposal, the Trade Department has been re-organised into three Divisions: 1. The Division on Trade Policy and Strategy (TPS) mainly deals with trade and trade policy analysis, formulation and implementation and is in charge of the Inter-ministerial Trade Policy Council and the Trade Policy Working Group (TPWG). It agrees the strategic long-term mission and objectives, reflects them in MTI s policies and priorities relating to coordinating Kosovo s integration into the EU and the international trading system. It also develops an appropriate organisational framework, systems and skills. The objective is to support the Trade Department and/or the Chief Trade Negotiator during negotiations with maximum flexibility. As the think tank of the Trade Department, the TPS prepares draft Trade Policy papers and coordinates with the Division of Trade Agreements, which develops bilateral trade policy strategies. 17

18 2. The new Division on Trade Agreements is in charge of bilateral trade policy, trade negotiations, implementation of trade agreements and the management of trade relations with all trading partners. It is also responsible for legal aspects of Kosovo s trade policy, including dispute settlement involving international law. It monitors partner countries trade practices and trade policies vis-à-vis Kosovo, and coordinates Kosovo s own compliance with its international commitments. It elaborates, develops and implements trade policies in the area of services; and it develops strategies and positions for rulesrelated issues in trade agreements such as Rules of Origin (ROO), Sanitary and Phytosanitary measures (SPS) technical barriers to trade (TBT), state monopolies, state aids, Government Procurement, Intellectual Property Rights, etc. 3. The Trade Remedies Division covers the analysis assessing the need for using Trade Defense Instruments, referring to international practices. The different Divisions are now closely inter-related. The Trade department has been organised in such a way that the director works more closely with the staff, with a greater focus on horizontal communication between functions in order to ensure a more integrated policy. Hence in carrying out the restructuring attention was paid to developing processes, management practices and operational systems, work plans, and processes. The project also helped establish management processes and develop and implement a training plan to expand technical, analytic skills and managerial skills, research and analysis capacities. In the new structure, every officer is responsible for one sector (i.e. agriculture, industrial products and services) and therefore is able to provide sector-specific support to all other trade agreements. Case study 3 Why build a Trade in Services Data Base and Analytical Capacity? Nowadays, Trade in Services (TIS) is more important than goods; it is a major export earner for many economies, including Kosovo s, and its importance is growing. Worldwide TIS has been growing at an annual rate of 15% since In the CEFTA countries, exports in services represent an average of EUR 16 billion annually over the past years. Kosovo s TIS export potential ranges from simple ICT services and Call Centres to very sophisticated remote network management solutions and customer support centres. Kosovars are providing services in telemarketing, software development, travel and tourism services, medical activities, amongst others. Kosovo s TIS has a positive trade balance, and contributes significantly to internal economic growth and jobs. Between 2005 and 2014 Kosovo exported over 5 billion in services, and the sector is growing. In 2014, service exports rose to 767 million, a new record. In 2013, the Central Bank of Kosovo estimated that export of services accounted for 12 percent of GDP, twice the share of TIS imports. No longer can TIS be treated as an afterthought compared to trade in agricultural and industrial goods. Moreover, service sector is critical to the success of the trade in goods. Before the development of the TIS Database that started in 2012, the MTI lacked the statistical data, regulatory data, and other information needed to understand the needs of this vital component of the economy. With the support of the EU project, the MTI established the TIS Database over a period of three years, that comprises 6 components 18

19 1. Statistics on Trade in Services (Economics) 2. Regulations Relating to Trade in Services (Law Kosovo) 3. Major Industries and Players (Industry) 4. Third Country Obstacles to TIS (Trade Barriers) 5. Kosovo s defensive and offensive interests at TIS 6. CEFTA Global Schedule of Commitments The relevance of such a platform became evident during the preparations of the Trade Department for ongoing CEFTA negotiations that began in November 2014 and are expected to be concluded by March The project contributed by helping 1. Establish and migrate the TIS Database to a web-based platform and ensure that it is continuously upgraded and updated with inputs from stakeholder consultations, and CEFTA negotiations; 2. Support the Trade Department during four out of six rounds of CEFTA negotiations by providing stakeholder validations on relevant issues and sectors in advance; 3. Further develop and update the TIS Database with relevant additional information gathered from stakeholders, including an update to the CEFTA Schedule of Commitments agreed jointly with Line Ministries and Agencies, and relevant Associations; 4. Prepare Impact Assessment Papers for each category of services negotiated with key indicators and data on the impact of Liberalisation for each sector. Services account for over two thirds of Kosovo s economy, and many of the businesses are, or will be soon, heavily involved in trading services internationally. This makes services a main concern for trade policy in Kosovo. During a workshop on Trade in Services Database. Services have contributed to reducing structural problems in the economy of Kosovo, particularly unemployment. However, the trends show that the growth potential of services is even higher. The Government of Kosovo, through the framework of CEFTA and the SAA, is taking steps to ease market access for service providers to neighbouring countries and the EU. The liberalisation of services will likely generate further benefits for the Kosovo economy such as mutual recognition of qualifications, enabling the free movement of persons to provide services abroad. However, the Government of Kosovo is also aware that for these wide-reaching benefits to accrue, other policy steps should be taken, including, among others, improving the business climate, upgrading the skills of the workforce, and easier access to technology and information. 19

20 Case study 4 Applying advanced econometric methods to international trade In-depth trade analysis and research requires strong quantitative skills. The Trade Department, and other research-based entities in the Government of Kosovo, must be able to formulate and use rigorous empirical models to identify the factors that determine trade flows, and then analyse and forecast the potential impacts of policy measures such as tariffs, non-tariff barriers and FTAs. Training session on STATA It is a complex and demanding task to be handled carefully, for different methodologies may lead to different - and sometimes opposing - results or policy implications. To help with this, the Project organized three rounds of trainings on cross-section, panel-data, and timeseries analysis. The first two trainings covered the so-called Gravity Model, which is one of the main empirical tools in international trade analysis. This is capable of looking at the potential impact of various tools, including trade-policy instruments, and historical and geographical trade determinants. The training was attended by participants from a range of trade related institutions, including the Trade Department and the Department of Industry in the Ministry of Trade and Industry, Kosovo Statistics Agency, the Central Bank of Kosovo, Kosovo Customs, the Ministry of Integration, and the Department of Macroeconomy in the Ministry of Finance. The six-week intensive training course provided these with a basic understanding of how to apply econometrics to trade analysis in a range of gravity modelling scenarios. The generated results of the gravity model for Kosovo exports and imports will be used by the MTI to design policy measures to support the competitiveness of the domestic industries in international markets. The time-series analysis training was provided at the request of the Central Bank of Kosovo and the Department of Macro-economy. This time the focus was on the models (Vector Error Correction Models and Cointegrated Structural VAR) that would support their modelling and analytical capabilities. This will help with economic forecasting, estimating the effects of policy changes in Kosovo and build scenarios. 20

21 Project Achievements LEGAL FRAMEWORK Law on Anti-Dumping and Countervailing Measures - drafted Concept Note of the horizontal law on Services - drafted Administrative instruction on safeguard measures - supported EU APROACH Study on Impact Assessment (SIA) - supported Study visits to learn from work practices and policies for EU integration of Croatia, Italy UK, Switzerland funded for 31 management staff and senior officers on 3 study visits DEVELOPMENT OF DATABASES AND SOFTWARE PLATFORMS Trade in Services Database developed and implemented Platform for reporting Non-Tariff Barriers - implemented 4 Acquisition of STATA software - funded TRAINING AND WORKSHOPS Training on STATA - implemented for 20 participants (from CBK, MoF, MTI, Customs and MEI) 6 Thematic workshops organised for 100 project beneficiaries 4 1 HANDBOOKS Handbook on International Trade Indicators - elaborated SUPPORT TO CEFTA PARTICIPATION MTI participation in CEFTA meetings supported with trade policy analysis Trade Department of MTI participation in 4 rounds of CEFTA negotiations on services intensively supported 3 Impact Assessments - produced Negotiations positions - analysed 4 STATA is a general-purpose statistical software package created in 1985 by StataCorp. Most of its users work in research, especially in the fields of economics, sociology, political science, biomedicine and epidemiology 21

22 Publications EU Trade Policy Project published various publications on trade issues. The list of publications includes: 1. Handbook on International Trade Indicators 2. Trade Brief No. 1: The Trade Dimension of the SAA with the EU and Kosovo s Economy 3. Trade Brief No. 2: Trade in Services 4. Policy Paper No. 1: Non-Tariff Barriers to Trade The Case of Serbia 5. Impact Assessment of the Liberalisation of Business and Professional Services in CEFTA 6. Annual Trade Report 2015 (For further information please visit the Download Centre on http: / 22

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24 Project implemented by a consortium led by The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union

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