# The Artificial Prediction Market

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1 The Artificial Prediction Market Adrian Barbu Department of Statistics Florida State University Joint work with Nathan Lay, Siemens Corporate Research 1

2 Overview Main Contributions A mathematical theory for Artificial Prediction Markets Loss function. Relation to existing methods: Linear Aggregation SVM Logistic Regression Extension to regression estimation. Experimental comparison with Random Forest and Adaboost 2

3 Main goal: Classification Motivation Let R F be the instance space K possible classes (outcomes) {1,,K} Supervised learning: Given training examples: (x i,y i ) {1,,K} Learn a function such that f k (x) is a good approximation of p(y=k x) 3

4 The Iowa Electronic Market Market setup: Contracts for each outcome are bought and sold at market price 0 < c < 1 Each contract pays \$1 if outcome is realized. Market price of contract represents a good approximation of the probability that the corresponding event occurs 4

5 The Artificial Prediction Market Goal: predict class probability p(y x) Market formulation: Simulate the Iowa Electronic Market Market participants = classifiers Solve market price equations Obtain total budget conservation No price fluctuations Train the market using training examples (x i,y i ) {1,,K} Participants bet on instance x i Wins are based on contracts purchased for correct class y i Participants become rich or poor based on prediction ability The trained market predicts better

6 Perols 2009 Other Prediction Markets Parimutuel betting with odds update Participants are not trained (have equal budgets) Evaluated on UCI datasets Using the Market Maker Chen and Vaughan, 2010, Abernethy et al, 2011 Participants enter the market sequentially Are paid according to a scoring rule See Tuesday s tutorial Machine Learning Markets (Storkey 2011) Participants bet to maximize a utility function Equilibrium price is computed by optimization

7 The Artificial Prediction Market A simulation of the Iowa Electronic Market: Each class k = 1,...,K corresponds to a contract type Market price is a vector c = (c 1,..., c K ). We enforce c k =1 Contract for class k sells at market price 0<c k <1 and pays 1 if the outcome is k. A market participant is not a human, but a pair of: 1. A budget (or weight) β m Based on past ability in predicting correct class 2. A betting function 3. Percentage of the budget on each class a participant allocates. 7

8 Constant Betting Functions Allocate same amount independent of the price

9 Linear Betting Functions

10 Aggressive Betting Functions Buy/sell based on classifier estimation of p(y x) 10

11 Input (x,y) Artificial Prediction Market Diagram Market participants h 1 (x) 1 Classifier Betting function... h m (x) Classifier Betting function... h M (x) Classifier Betting function Budget m Budget M Budget Prediction Market Equilibrium price c from Price Equations Estimated probability p(y x)=c 11

12 Market Update (x,y) 1. Compute equilibrium price c based on the price equations. 2. For each m=1,...,m Update participant m s budget as 12

13 Main requirement: Price Equations The total budget must remain the same after each market update, independent of the outcome y. This means: This must hold for any y, since the market price c must depend only on x for prediction purposes. We also have 13

14 Solving the Price Equations Price Uniqueness If are monotonic, the price c is unique Holds for our betting functions. Solving the price equations Analytically when possible: For Constant Market Two class linear market. Numerically: Double bisection method Mann Iteration (faster) 14

15 Constant Betting is Linear Aggregation In the case of constant betting functions we obtain linear aggregation of classifiers existent in Adaboost, Random Forest, etc. We obtain a new online learning rule for linear aggregation: 15

16 Logistic Regression Market If x R M, then picking the betting functions Gives the price equilibrium equation Which gives the logistic regression model 16

17 Logistic Regression Market Update This has the update rule that conserves It resembles the online logistic regression update rule An example of Logistic betting 17

18 Kernel Method for the Market Each instance x i is a participant Each participant given as Has decision boundary 18

19 Decision boundary Kernel Method for the Market Can use the RBF Kernel Trick for nonlinear boundaries No margin though 19

20 Maximum Likelihood The Constant Market maximizes the log likelihood The update can be viewed as a gradient ascent on L( ) The Market update is stochastic gradient ascent 20

21 Batch vs Incremental Market Updates Loss functions for both the batch and Market (incremental) updates. 21

22 Specialization In Boosting and Random Forrest, all classifiers are aggregated for any observation x. The Market participants can be specialized A participant can predict very well on a subregion of. It will not bet on any x outside its region. For each observation, a different subset of classifiers could participate in betting Example: a leaf node of a random tree 22

23 Decision Tree Rules as Specialized Classifiers Decision tree rules (leaves) can perfectly classify training data in their specialized domain. 23

24 Real Data Results 21 datasets from the UC Irvine Machine Learning repository Many are small ( 200 examples). Training and test sets are randomly subsampled, 90% for training and 10% for testing. Exceptions are satimage and poker datasets with test sets of size 2000 and 10 6 respectively All results are averaged over 100 runs. Significance comparison tests ( <0.01): Mean differences from RF results from Breiman 01 Paired t-tests with our RF implementation 24

25 Results on UCI Data ADB and RFB are Adaboost and Random Forest from Breiman 01 CB and AB perform best and significantly outperform RF in many cases Trained markets never performed significantly worse than RF 25

26 Application: Lymph Node Detection About 2000 candidate lymph node centers are obtained with a trained detector (Barbu et al, 2012) At each candidate, a segmentation is obtained From each segmentation features are extracted ~30 are selected by Adaboost Detected lymph node candidates 26

27 Example Axillary Region Detected LN candidates Detected Lymph Nodes Detected Lymph Nodes 27

28 A Market of Classifier Bins Adaboost is based on histogram classifiers with 64 bins Converted to Constant Market Each bin is a specialized participant bidding for one class Initial budgets are the Adaboost coefficients Totally 2048 participants Weighted update with w + =0.5/N +, w =0.5/N

29 0.87 Lymph Node Detection Results 0.86 Detection Rate at 3 FP/Vol Train Market Train Adaboost Test Market Test Adaboost Epoch Detection rate at 3FP/vol (clinically acceptable) Six fold cross-validation

30 0.9 Lymph Node Detection Results Detection rate Market performance at 7 epochs p-value Train Market 7 Epochs Train Adaboost Test Market 7 Epochs Test Adaboost False positives per volume

31 The Regression Market Extend class labels to have uncountably many labels Participants bets and prices become conditional densities Equilibrium price and updates generalize As with Classification Market, it maximizes log likelihood and minimizes an approximation of the E[KL(p(y x),c(y x; )]. 31

32 The Regression Market The proportion of the budget spent on contracts for class at price is The number of contracts purchased for is Introduce reward kernel that rewards for almost correct predictions (e.g. Gaussian, Dirac Delta). 32

33 Constant Betting Update Rule This gives the update rule: caps the total proportion bet This prevents instantaneous bankruptcies (i.e. ) is also the learning rate. 33

34 Constant Betting Update Rule: Delta Update When Same update rule as classification market. Still improves aggregation but prone to overfitting. 34

35 Constant Betting Update Rule: Gaussian Update When Have to evaluate an integral. Use Gaussian-Quadrature. are the Hermite-Gauss nodal points and weights. should reflect noise level of training data. 35

36 Loss Examples Training, test RMSD and loss for abalone and cpu-performance data sets 36

37 Real Data Results RFB is Regression Forest from Breiman 01 GM, DM perform best and significantly outperforms RF in most cases 37

38 Clustering Regression Tree Want to regress multimodal responses (e.g. circle). Generalize Regression Tree to cluster Y values Use Market to weed out poorly clustered branches of a forest. A single clustering regression tree on the spiral data. 38

39 Conclusion A theory for Artificial Prediction Markets based on the Iowa Electronic Market: Aggregate classifiers, regressors, and densities. Very simple update rules. Logistic Regression and Kernel methods. Can be used for both online and offline learning. Significantly outperforms Random Forest in many cases, in both prediction and probability estimation. 39

40 Future Work Generalization error and VC dimension of the Market Feature (participant) selection Learning betting functions Regression Market applications in Computer Vision and Medical Imaging Other types of Market participants 40

41 References N. Lay, A. Barbu. Supervised Aggregation of Classifiers using Artificial Prediction Markets. ICML 2010 N. Lay, A. Barbu. The Artificial Regression Market. Arxiv. A. Barbu, M. Suehling, X. Xu, D. Liu, S. K. Zhou, D. Comaniciu. Automatic Detection and Segmentation of Lymph Nodes from CT Data. IEEE Trans Medical Imaging, 31, No. 2, , A. Barbu, N. Lay. An Introduction to Artificial Prediction Markets. JMLR 2012

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