P

Transcription

1 How Was Life? Global Well-being since 1820

2

3 How Was Life? GLOBAL WELL-BEING SINCE 1820 Edited by Jan Luiten van Zanden, Joerg Baten, Marco Mira d Ercole, Auke Rijpma, Conal Smith and Marcel Timmer

4 This work is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Organisation or of the governments of its member countries This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Please cite this publication as: van Zanden, J.L., et al. (eds.) (2014), How Was Life?: Global Well-being since 1820, OECD Publishing. doi: / en ISBN (print) ISBN (PDF) The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found on line at: OECD, IISH 2014 You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases and multimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgment of the source and copyright owner is given. All requests for public or commercial use and translation rights should be submitted to Requests for permission to photocopy portions of this material for public or commercial use shall be addressed directly to the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC) at or the Centre français d exploitation du droit de copie (CFC) at contact@cfcopies.com.

5 Foreword Foreword FOLLOWING ANGUS MADDISON S FOOTSTEPS In 2001, the OECD Development Centre released Angus Maddison s book, The World Economy A Millennial Perspective, which was soon to become a classic in economic history for statisticians, economists and historians. Angus had a very long association with the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which he joined in 1953, and was one of the founding fathers of its Development Centre. This enthusiastic and thought-provoking chiffrephile as he used to call himself devoted much of his career to quantifying and analysing long-term growth in output as well as achievements in development and social welfare over the past millennium in as many countries of the world as possible. In doing this, he greatly contributed to one of the core missions of the OECD: providing the evidence for policy-making. We are very pleased today, more than a decade after the release of Maddison s seminal work, to renew our association with his legacy. We do so through a report that both connects with and departs from his contributions to economic history. It connects, due to the report s long-term, global perspective, covering the period It departs by going beyond GDP to encompass a broader set of dimensions that shape people s living conditions, such as their wages, longevity, education, height and personal security, among others. The present volume represents the culmination of the efforts undertaken by a group of economic historians as part of an international, inter-disciplinary effort, the Clio-Infra project. We are releasing it in the context of the Better Life Initiative, which was launched by the OECD Secretary-General, Angel Gurría, in 2011 as part of the OECD s mission to design better policies for better lives. The title of this book (How Was Life?) underscores the close alignment between the life dimensions covered in it and those included in the OECD report on well-being, How s Life? We regard this report as adding an essential historical perspective to our own work to compare countries performance through a multi-dimensional (and multi-disciplinary) perspective that goes beyond OECD countries, as it is in the tradition of the Development Centre. Issues of data quality will loom large for any historical report of such breadth and scope. To ensure historical consistency, the authors have relied on data sources and assumptions that are often cruder than those typically made by statistical offices in the production of their modern official statistics. For that reason, the data from the most recent period (e.g. from the 1970s or 1980s) may also differ from those found in OECD and its Development Centre s reports covering the same issues. While we believe that the data presented in this report draw on some of the best sources and expertise currently available to provide a consistent historical perspective, the report is not meant to provide a definitive word on these issues, but rather to encourage other specialists to engage in this field. How was Life? Global Well-being Since 1820 OECD, IISH

6 Foreword Because of its global, historical and multi-dimensional scope, we hope that this book will continue the legacy of Angus Maddison s work, while providing a useful complement to the OECD Better Life Initiative. Martine Durand OECD Chief Statistician Director, Statistics Directorate Mario Pezzini Director, OECD Development Centre 4 How was Life? Global Well-being Since 1820 OECD, IISH 2014

7 Table of contents Table of contents Preface Acknowledgments Readers Guide Executive summary Chapter 1. Global well-being since By Jan Luiten van Zanden, Joerg Baten, Marco Mira d Ercole, Auke Rijpma, Conal Smith and Marcel Timmer Introduction Aim of this study Overview of indicators covered Data quality Practical issues regarding country coverage Main highlights Notes References Chapter 2. Demographic trends since By Lotte van der Vleuten and Jan Kok Introduction Data quality World population : trends and trajectories Demographic transitions Implications of demographic change Priorities for future research Note References Chapter 3. GDP per capita since By Jutta Bolt, Marcel Timmer and Jan Luiten van Zanden Introduction Description of the concepts used Historical sources Data quality Main highlights of GDP trends since Priorities for future research Notes References How was Life? Global Well-being Since 1820 OECD, IISH

8 Table of contents Chapter 4. Real wages since By Pim de Zwart, Bas van Leeuwen and Jieli van Leeuwen-Li Introduction Description of the concepts used Historical sources Data quality Main highlights of wage trends Correlation with GDP per capita Priorities for future research Notes References Chapter 5. Education since By Bas van Leeuwen and Jieli van Leeuwen-Li Introduction Description of the concepts used Historical sources Data quality Main highlights of education trends Correlation with GDP per capita Priorities for future research Notes References Chapter 6. Life expectancy since By Richard L. Zijdema and Filipa Ribeiro de Silva Introduction Description of the concepts used Historical sources Data quality Main highlights of life expectancy trends Correlation with GDP per capita Priorities for future research Notes References Chapter 7. Human height since By Joerg Baten and Matthias Blum Introduction Description of the concepts used Historical sources Data quality Main highlights of human height trends Correlation with GDP per capita Priorities for future research Notes References How was Life? Global Well-being Since 1820 OECD, IISH 2014

9 Table of contents Chapter 8. Personal security since By Joerg Baten, Winny Bierman, Peter Foldvari, and Jan Luiten van Zanden Introduction Description of the concepts used Historical sources Data quality Main highlights of trends in personal security Correlation with GDP per capita Priorities for future research Notes References Chapter 9. Political institutions since By Peter Foldvari and Katalin Buzasi Introduction Description of the concepts used Historical sources Data quality Main highlights of trends in political institutions Correlation with GDP per capita Priorities for future research Notes References Chapter 10. Environmental quality since By Kees Klein Goldewijk Introduction Description of the concepts used Historical sources Data quality Main highlights of trends in environmental quality Correlation with GDP per capita Priorities for future research Notes References Chapter 11. Income inequality since By Michail Moatsos, Joerg Baten, Peter Foldvari, Bas van Leeuwen and Jan van Zanden Introduction Description of the concepts used Historical sources Data quality Main highlights of trends in income inequality Correlation with GDP per capita Priorities for future research Notes References How was Life? Global Well-being Since 1820 OECD, IISH

10 Table of contents Chapter 12. Gender inequality since By Sarah Carmichael, Selin Dilli and Auke Rijpma Introduction Description of the concepts used Historical sources Data quality Main highlights of trends in gender inequality Correlation with GDP per capita Priorities for future research Notes References Chapter 13. A composite view of well-being since By Auke Rijpma Introduction Description of the concepts used Main highlights of trends in composite indicators of human well-being Priorities for future research Notes References Tables 1.1. Dimensions covered in this volume and in the OECD Better Life Initiative Quality of data on population by region and benchmark year, Quality of data on fertility rates by region and benchmark year, Total population by region, Total population in selected countries, Population growth by region, 1820s-2000s Quality of data on GDP by region and benchmark year, Regional averages of GDP per capita, Number of countries in GDP dataset by region and year, GDP per capita in selected countries, Content of subsistence baskets in selected regions and countries Quality of data on prices and wages by region and benchmark year, Labourers and craftsmen s real wages and skill premium, 1930s-2000s Regional averages of real wages of building labourers, 1820s-2000s Regional averages of real wages of building craftsmen, 1920s-2000s Real wages of building labourers in selected countries, 1820s-2000s Literacy by years of schooling completed in the United States, Quality of data on years of education by region and benchmark year, Population having attained at least basic education by region, Average years of education by region, Average years of education in selected countries, Quality of data on life expectancy at birth by region and benchmark year, Regional averages of life expectancy at birth, 1820s-2000s Life expectancy at birth in selected countries, 1820s-2000s How was Life? Global Well-being Since 1820 OECD, IISH 2014

11 Table of contents 7.1. Quality of data on population height by region and benchmark year, Regional averages of population height, 1820s-1980s Population height in selected countries, 1820s-1980s Indicators of personal security used Quality of data on homicide rates by region and benchmark year, Long-term development of homicide rates in Europe, 13th-20th centuries Regional averages of homicide rates, 1820s-2000s Number of countries in the homicide dataset by region and decade, 1820s-2000s Homicide rates in selected countries, 1820s-2000s Number of countries involved in internal and external conflicts, 1820s-1990s Probability of inhabiting a country with an internal armed conflict, by region, 1820s-2000s Probability of inhabiting a country with an external armed conflict, by region, 1820s-2000s Indicators to measure democracy: polity2 and Index of Democracy Quality of data on indicators on democracy Polity2 democracy indicator in selected countries, 1820s-2000s Index of Democracy in selected countries, 1820s-1990s Regional averages of polity2 democracy scores, 1820s-2000s Regional averages of Index of Democracy scores, 1820s-2000s Regional averages of participation scores in democracy, 1820s-2000s Regional averages of competition scores in democracy, 1820s-2000s Overview of selected environmental themes in How Was Life? Quality of data on SO 2 and CO 2 emissions by region and benchmark year, Quality of data on biodiversity indicator by region and benchmark year, Regional averages of SO 2 emissions per capita, SO 2 emissions per capita in selected countries, Regional averages of mean species abundance, Mean species abundance in selected countries, Regional averages of CO 2 emissions per capita, CO 2 emissions per capita in selected countries, Estimates of income inequality by source and year, Quality of data on income inequality by region and benchmark year, Income inequality in selected countries, Gini coefficients of within-country and between-country inequality, Regional averages of income inequality, Gender equality indicators, coverage and summary statistics Quality of data on ratios of boys to girls, parliamentary seats ratio, and marriage age ratio by region and benchmark year, Gains in life expectancy at birth by gender, Well-being indicators, coverage and summary statistics How was Life? Global Well-being Since 1820 OECD, IISH

12 Table of contents Factor loadings for a composite well-being indicator Figures 1.1. Evolution of GDP per capita and selected well-being indicators, Total population by region, Population growth by region, 1820s-2000s Regional averages of life expectancy at birth and total fertility rates, Regional averages of GDP per capita, Share of employment in manufacturing in selected countries, Share of total consumption in GDP in selected countries, Regional averages of real wages of building labourers, 1820s-2000s Correlation between real wages of building labourers and GDP per capita, 1820s-2000s World development of literacy and attainment of at least basic education, Correlation between average years of education and GDP per capita, Regional averages of life expectancy at birth, 1820s-2000s Infant mortality and life expectancy at birth in major world regions, Correlation between life expectancy at birth and GDP per capita, 1820s-2000s Regional averages of population height, 1820s-1980s Population heights and GDP per capita Correlation between population height and GDP per capita, 1820s-1980s Variation in height and GDP per capita in selected countries, 1810s-2000s Homicide rates in selected Western countries, Worldwide homicide rates, Probability of inhabiting a country with an armed conflict, Correlation between homicide rates and GDP per capita, 1820s-2000s Global scores for Index of Democracy and polity2 of the Polity IV project, Index of Democracy: participation and competition, Correlation between polity2 index and GDP per capita, 1820s-2000s Correlation between Index of Democracy and GDP per capita, 1820s-1990s Regional totals of SO 2 emissions, Regional totals of cropland and pasture, Regional totals of CO 2 emissions, Correlation between SO 2 emissions per capita and GDP per capita, Correlation between biodiversity (MSA) and GDP per capita, Correlation between CO 2 emissions per capita and GDP per capita, Global income distributions in selected years, Correlation between Gini coefficients and GDP per capita in three time periods, Correlation between Gini coefficients and GDP per capita, Average life expectancy at birth, marriage age and average years of education for women and men in the 20th century How was Life? Global Well-being Since 1820 OECD, IISH 2014

13 Table of contents Countries with gender-equal inheritance, 1920, 1980, Countries with female suffrage, 1913, 1950, Female suffrage, Ratio of life expectancy at birth of women to men by region, 1900s-2000s Ratio of girls to boys aged 0 5 by region, 1900s-2000s Ratio of ages at marriage between women and men by region, 1900s-2000s Ratio of average years of education between women and men by region, 1950s-2000s Ratio of parliamentary seats held by women and men by region, 1900s-2000s Regional averages of the composite gender equality index, 1950s-2000s Correlation between gender equality indicators and GDP per capita, 1900s-2000s Various indicators of gender equality and GDP per capita, 1900s-2000s Correlation between well-being indicators and GDP per capita, 1820s-2000s Regional averages of a composite well-being indicator, 1820s-2000s Regional averages of a composite well-being indicator and standardised GDP per capita, 1820s-2000s Composite well-being indicator by region, latent variable model, 1820s-2000s Composite well-being indicator and GDP per capita in the United Kingdom, China, and India, 1820s-2000s Composite well-being indicator across countries, 1850, 1900 and Segmented relation between a composite well-being indicator and GDP per capita Follow OECD Publications on: OECD Alerts This book has... StatLinks2 A service that delivers Excel files from the printed page! Look for the StatLinks2at the bottom of the tables or graphs in this book. To download the matching Excel spreadsheet, just type the link into your Internet browser, starting with the prefix, or click on the link from the e-book edition. How was Life? Global Well-being Since 1820 OECD, IISH

14

15 Preface Preface by Jan Luiten van Zanden, Utrecht University and Universities of Stellenbosch and Groningen, Joerg Baten, Tuebingen University, Marco Mira d Ercole, OECD Statistics Directorate, Auke Rijpma, Utrecht University, Conal Smith, OECD Statistics Directorate, and Marcel Timmer, University of Groningen In 2011, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) published the report How s Life? Measuring Well-Being. This was the flagship publication of its Better Life Initiative, which aims to develop a new approach to the measurement of well-being, stressing its multi-dimensional character. The report was a first attempt at the international level to go beyond the conceptual stage and to present a large set of comparable well-being indicators for OECD countries and, to the extent possible, other major economies. It was an important contribution to the GDP and beyond debate, which in recent years received new impetus from the Stiglitz, Sen and Fitoussi report in At about the same time, a group of economic historians set up an international collaborative project to chart the various dimensions of the development of global inequality in the period in a systematic way, making use of the most recent research carried out within the discipline of economic history. This research project, Clio-Infra, sponsored by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO), the Royal Academy of Sciences (KnaW) and the universities of Utrecht and Groningen, also included the Maddison project, a collaborative effort to continue the work initiated by Angus Maddison to create a consistent dataset covering GDP, population and GDP per capita for the world economy for the past two millennia. Maddison had always maintained close contact with OECD, which in the 1990s and early 2000s published his major synthetic books on long-term economic growth in the world economy. People at the OECD wondered whether his work would be continued, and approached the Maddison project and Clio-Infra. This volume emerged from talks about how to continue the important work that Maddison pioneered, and how to add a historical dimension to the OECD s Better Life Initiative. Economic history is a small discipline, with a few thousand professional practitioners doing research and teaching the next generation. Since the rise of new economic history in the United States in the 1960s, there has been a strong tendency within the discipline to find inspiration in economic theory and to apply quantitative methods and techniques. However, much of the research focuses on individual countries, regions or firms. For How was Life? Global Well-being Since 1820 OECD, IISH

16 PREFACE example, some economic historians have extensive knowledge about 18th century South Africa, or 19th century Indonesia, but have little ability to produce broader syntheses that are more widely relevant. Recently, global economic history has emerged as a new sub-discipline, posing questions about the Great Divergence (between Asia and Europe after the Industrial Revolution), or the continued underdevelopment of Africa. In order to answer such global questions, global datasets are required that cover the various dimensions of well-being and its determinants (such as institutions and geography). As Angus Maddison has demonstrated in the past, such global datasets can be produced only after major efforts in peer-reviewed research and standardisation of the underlying national data. Therefore a collaborative effort is needed to deal with the complexities involved in gathering, systematising and analysing data from a wide variety of disparate sources. This requires teamwork, in which experts on various topics, regions and periods work together to create standardised datasets of key historical variables. This is the approach adopted by both The Maddison Project, which focuses on historical national accounts estimates, and the larger Clio-Infra project, which covers a larger number of dimensions and indicators of economic development and well-being. This report is the product of collaboration between OECD and the Clio-Infra project to present a multidimensional view, along the lines of the Better Life Initiative, of the development of global well-being since We hope that presenting these new data here and online will inspire social scientists to develop a new, more nuanced perspective of long-run changes in the world economy, and of how these changes have affected life for world s people. 14 How was Life? Global Well-being Since 1820 OECD, IISH 2014

17 Acknowledgments Acknowledgments This report has been prepared by a team of historians participating in the Clio-Infra project. Individual chapters of the report have been prepared by Lotte van der Vleuten and Jan Kok (Chapter 2); Jutta Bolt, Marcel Timmer and Jan Luiten van Zanden (Chapter 3); Pim de Zwart, Bas van Leeuwen and Jieli van Leeuwen-Li (Chapter 4); Bas van Leeuwen and Jieli van Leeuwen-Li (Chapter 5); Richard L. Zijdeman and Filipa Ribeiro de Silva (Chapter 6); Joerg Baten and Matthias Blum (Chapter 7); Joerg Baten, Winny Bierman, Péter Foldvari and Jan Luiten van Zanden (Chapter 8); Peter Foldvari and Katalin Buzasi (Chapter 9); Kees Klein Goldewijk (Chapter 10); Michail Moatsos, Jan Luiten van Zanden, Joerg Baten, Peter Foldvari and Bas van Leeuwen (Chapter 11); Sarah Carmichael, Selin Dilli, Auke Rijpma (Chapter 12); and Auke Rijpma (Chapter 13). Statistical assistance in the production of tables and figures has been provided by Winny Bierman (Clio-Infra) and Elena Tosetto (OECD), while editorial assistance was provided by Rachel Linden (OECD) and Patrick Hamm. Robertus Oosterwijk prepared Figure 12.1 in Chapter 12. Coordination of the report has been ensured by Jan Luiten van Zanden, Joerg Baten, Auke Rijpma and Marcel Timmer (within Clio-Infra), and by Marco Mira d Ercole and Conal Smith (OECD Statistics Directorate) and Alexandre Kolev (OECD Development Centre). Linda Westerink and Winny Bierman assisted the Clio-Infra team in organising workshops. The authors of individual chapters have benefitted from comments provided by the coordinators of the report, by other members of the Clio-Infra team, as well as by participants and discussants at a workshop organised by the OECD in cooperation with Clio-Infra held in Paris on December Special thanks to Herman de Jong (University of Groningen) and Gilles Pison (Institut national d études démographique, France) for their comments on Chapter 2; Steve Broadberry (London School of Economics) and Jennifer Ribarsky (OECD) for their comments on Chapter 3; Debin Ma (London School of Economics) and Alexandre Kolev (OECD Development Centre) for their comments on Chapter 4; Herman de Jong (University of Groningen) and Fabrice Murtin (OECD) for their comments on Chapter 5; Joerg Baten (Tuebingen University) and Gaetan Lafortune (OECD) for their comments on Chapter 6; Giovanni Federico (European University Institute, Florence) and Nicolas Herpin (Institut national de le statistique et des etudes économiques, France) for their comments on Chapter 7; Pieter Spierenburg (Erasmus University, Rotterdam) and Carlotta Balestra (OECD) for their comments on Chapter 8; Leticia Arroyo Abad (Middlebury College) and Christiane Arndt (OECD) for their comments on Chapter 9; Astrid Kander (University of Lund) and Myriam Linster (OECD) for their comments on Chapter 10; Branko Milanovic (City University of New York Graduate Center) and Michael Förster (OECD) for their comments on Chapter 11; Lex Heerma van Voss (Huygens Institute for the History of the Netherlands) and Gaelle Ferrant (OECD Development Centre) for their comments on Chapter 12; and Kyoji Fukao (Hitotsubashi University, Japan) and Romina Boarini (OECD) for their comments on Chapter 13. How was Life? Global Well-being Since 1820 OECD, IISH

18 Acknowledgments This report is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Organisation or of the governments of its member countries. 16 How was Life? Global Well-being Since 1820 OECD, IISH 2014

19 How Was Life? Global Well-being Since 1820 OECD, IISH 2014 Readers Guide Conventions Throughout the report, data shown for world regions and for the world as a whole are population-weighted averages. The coverage of countries typically increases as more country data become available for more recent periods. In order to ensure more meaningful trends for world regions over time, imputations are made for missing countries. This adjustment procedure is explained in Chapter 1. Depending on the chapter, the data shown in the tables and figure may refer to either individual years or to decadal averages; in the latter case, the data are shown as 1990s and the corresponding values are computed as decadal averages of the period. Data quality varies across domains, regions and periods: an assessment of data quality is provided in a summary table within each chapter. For all figures, the following codes for countries and world regions are used: 25 countries covered in this volume ARG Argentina GBR United Kingdom POL Poland AUS Australia IDN Indonesia RUS Russian Federation BRA Brazil IND India SWE Sweden CAN Canada ITA Italy THA Thailand CHN People s Republic of China JPN Japan TUR Turkey DEU Germany KEN Kenya USA United States EGY Egypt MEX Mexico ZAF South Africa ESP Spain NGA Nigeria FRA France NLD Netherlands World regions WE Western Europe LA Latin America and Caribbean EA East Asia EE East Europe and former Soviet Union SSA Sub-Saharan Africa SSEA South and South East Asia WO Western Offshoots MENA Middle East and North Africa Historical data labelled RUS may sometimes refer to data covering the former Soviet Union. When this occurs, it is mentioned in notes to the tables and figures. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Signs and abbreviations: (..) is used to indicate missing values. 17

20