Rolling Wave Planning: Manage Projects Without Going Under

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1 Rolling Wave Planning: Manage Projects Without Going Under Rolling Wave Planning: Manage Projects Without Going Under W. Charles Slaven MBA PMP CSSBB CPA (inactive) Director, Lean Deployment and Continuous Improvement The Christ Hospital Health Network Twice Past President, PMI SW Ohio Chapter Concepts to be covered today: I. Understanding the model II. Becoming aware of its foundational principles A. Formal Project Time Management B. Risk Management C. Agile Project Management D. Lean Concepts III. Knowing how to plan for: A. What you know and B. What you don t know IV. Using Rolling Wave Planning successfully V. Applying Rolling Wave Project Management VI. Benefits, Trends, Strategies & Getting Started The Slaven Group (c) 1

2 What s the Point? Why do Rolling Wave? For many projects, you cannot know all the future tasks to be accomplished To try to detail schedule and resource all the detailed tasks needed in the future may not add value Why? Because the future is uncertain and you just don t know what you don t know yet As we get started Breakout into teams and tell us about some of your long term projects that will take more than six months to complete Post your project names up select one. Describe the project Scope the work by defining the end deliverable Define the total time frame: Start/ Finish Date (We will debrief this as much as possible and come back to it later) The Slaven Group (c) 2

3 Understanding the Model and its Underlying Principles Rolling Wave Planning Foundation Principles: Project Time Management Risk Management Agile Lean Project Time Management Includes all processes required to ensure timely completion of the project The Work Breakdown Structure or Project Scope feeds Project Time Management Its critical Output is a Schedule The Slaven Group (c) 3

4 Why is Time Management Important? Time is one of the big three of the triple constraints: Time Cost Scope / Quality If activities take longer than planned, dates are missed and project costs increase Helps to ensure efficient use of resources Hitting dates increases stakeholder confidence Work Breakdown Structure Used to drive the list of activities The team breaks down the work packages to a level where estimates can be made Using the WBS as the starting point helps ensure: The entire scope of work will be addressed No unnecessary work will be performed Progressive Elaboration A technique in which the plan for the project is being continuously and constantly modified, detailed, and improved as newer and better information becomes available. A plan that has the quality of being more accurate and more complete. As a series of successive iterations unfold and more and better information has been made available to the project team, the plan unfolds. An important step to the project management planning process as it takes a sketchy preliminary plan and refines it. The Slaven Group (c) 4

5 Milestones Represent a significant event Need to accommodate the milestones in how the work is planned When a milestone s date is fixed, the activities that lead up to it lose some of their flexibility Have zero duration Project Schedule The planned dates for performing schedule activities and the planned dates for meeting schedule milestones. PMBOK Guide, Glossary Traditional Planning Lack of Predictability metrics not based in reality precision favored over accuracy leads to poor planning The Slaven Group (c) 5

6 Risk Management Projects have uncertainty Project risk management: systematic process to plan, identify, analyze, respond to, and monitor project risk Should be proactive Risk may be positive (opportunities) or negative (threats) Project risk management objectives: Maximize the probability and impact of positive events Minimize the probability and impact of adverse events Risk and Cost in the Project Life Cycle Risk Cost Initiation Planning Execution Completion Sample Risk Events: Do these types of events happen? Project Management Area Integration Common Risk Events Inadequate planning Can Rolling Wave help? Scope Time Cost Poor requirements definition Short deadlines Poor estimating Quality Quality controls Maybe HR Project manager lacks No authority Communications Management No uninformed about risks Procurement Contractor insolvency No The Slaven Group (c) 6

7 All of the Agile frameworks, including Rolling Wave PM, are built on the same Foundation Just-in-Time Self-organization Collaboration Prioritization Timeboxing Just-in-Time Detailed up-front planning and defined processes are replaced by just-in-time inspect and adapt cycles Self- Organization Small teams manage their own workload and organize themselves around clear goals and constraints. The Slaven Group (c) 7

8 Collaboration Everyone collabora they do not manag direct them CC Pace Proprietary and Confidential Prioritization Work on the most important thing do not waste time focusing on work that does not add immediate value Timeboxing Timeboxing creates the rhythm that drives development The Slaven Group (c) 8

9 Agile Project Management Agile Goal In a partnership with a Project Owner create value in a time boxed manner on small meaningful portion of the scope until the Owner is satisfied the work is done What do Agile Teams do? Chunk project scope into small pieces Deliver customer value with each piece s delivery Own and estimate all work Commit to delivering only on the immediate horizon Perform work in sprints Work as a team, preferably collocated Demonstrate work is done Reflect and improve their approach Agile is Different Cost is Fixed Schedule is Fixed Agile projects within an organization provide a flexible ability to: create and respond to change through iterative and incremental delivery focus on customer value collaborate utilize adaptive planning Requirements are Flexible Understanding Behavior/ Attitudes Traditional Project Measurements EAC/ETC - Estimate At Completion/Estimate To Complete SV/CV Schedule and Cost Variance SPI/CPI Schedule and Cost Performance Indexes EV Earned Value Agile Measurements Burn down Run Chart Product Complete Run Chart Predictability Run Chart Productivity(Velocity) Run Chart Efficiency Run Chart Quality Control Charts Customer Satisfaction Trends 'Tell me how you will measure me and I will tell you how I will behave. - Eli Goldratt, The Goal The Slaven Group (c) 9

10 Some Reasons Projects Fail Poor Communication Traditional Solutions Status Meetings; Communications Plan; Stakeholder Meetings Inadequate Resources Request and justify additional resources Unrealistic Deadlines Lack of user involvement People Problems * Top 3 reasons from CompTIA survey, Mar 2007 ** misc reasons from other sources Why Does Agile Work? Identify risk; Compute additional resources needed to make the date; request; re-work the schedule/budget Request a project sponsor or SME rep PM intervention/coaching Agile Solutions Daily Meetings; BVCs; Collaboration; In-Room/table dialog; Retrospectives Assign dedicated teams; whatever team is available only commits to work they can do Deliver in time-boxes; estimate completion range based on team velocity; negotiate scope Dedicated Product Owner involved with the team on a daily basis Connectivity; Team Norms; Collaboration; Co-location; Retrospectives; Team Self- Policing; Coaching Some Key Benefits Early ROI Increased Control and Reduced Risk Improved Responsiveness to Change Rapid Learning Improved Communications Improved Quality Increased Morale Increased Productivity and Performance Satisfied Stakeholders Lean Management A Lean organization creates speed by increasing process efficiency through waste and defect elimination, customer alignment, empowered workers and a culture of continuous improvement: The Slaven Group (c) 10

11 Lean Management Add nothing but value - Eliminate Waste Waste is defined as any process or activity that does not directly generate business value. Delay Commitment - pull From Demand Respond to present and actual needs, rather than forecasting to fulfill future ones. Center on the people who add value - Empower Workers Make workers responsible for their own processes, providing only necessary guidelines. Enable Continuous Improvement Avoid heavy methodologies and documentation-driven processes; make it easy to adapt. Lean Thinking Essentials Lean Thinkers believe work is best done when it is empirically focused by metrics on the customer needs and expectations while continually leaning out waste, ceremony and complexity Lean Thinking Essentials A Lean Premise Processes over time accumulate a significant amount of waste, ceremony and complexity. Lean Thinking uncovers the waste, improves the flow of the process and delivers more product in less time. The Slaven Group (c) 11

12 Consider This - If you happen to be 10% efficient today and you lean out and reach 35% efficiency. That would be a 2.5 time improvement! Take out the waste and you will be able to Be 2 ½ times faster in delivering your product /service. Lean Thinking Essentials Lean Thinking Goal Create a sustainable continuous flow of customer valued products and services in an effective and efficient manner What do Lean Thinkers do? Own the process Know what work creates value Manage based on quantitative data Keep value creation flowing Continually remove waste, ceremony and complexity Balance workload Remove stresses Improve quality Rolling Wave uses the best of what we have learned from other domains to.. Deliver projects faster, cheaper and better Mitigate risks by only scheduling what you know Use the Agilest mentality to deliver value Apply Lean Principles and eliminating waste Meet the intent of PMI s Body of Knowledge on Project Time Management while not using some parts which can be bureaucratic The Slaven Group (c) 12

13 Rolling Wave Planning Rolling Wave Planning is a technique that enables you to plan for a project as it unfolds. It helps you to mitigate the risks of : Uncertainty as to what the project will require Changes that are needed and approved Incorrect Estimates Ineffective or Wrong Resources Corrective Actions Needed Its principles come from the agile and lean methodologies along with formal project time management and scheduling techniques Rolling Wave Planning Requires that you to plan iteratively using a techniques called progressive elaboration Does NOT detail plan the entire project Plans the details as you get some visibility to the project and its implementation and lessons learned Deliver something of value in each Wave So don t get to far over your skis! The Slaven Group (c) 13

14 Rolling Wave Example What makes it Rolling Wave PM? This Example Its Characteristics: Clarity for the first three months You would plan only for those three months. As the project progresses and you gain more clarity, you then plan for the remaining months. The Rolling Wave Planning technique uses progressive elaboration, which is the act of elaborating the work packages in greater detail as the project unfolds. The Slaven Group (c) 14

15 Exemptions This method for planning does not exempt you from creating a list of milestones and assumptions for the entire project. As a matter of fact, it is necessary to provide key milestones and assumptions as they will help stakeholders see why you are using Rolling Wave Planning and what to expect as the project progresses. Exercise For the project you identified earlier, brainstorm the schedule for the next 3 months in detail and Schedule the rest of the project with 3 milestones? Delivered Benefits This iterative approach to planning is commonly found in most Agile Project Methodologies Encourages adaptability Encourages planning Is great for R&D, High-Tech, and Invention projects Is good for projects with changing scope The Slaven Group (c) 15

16 Rolling Wave PM eliminates much of the Excessive Costs of Changes Going Forward: Trends to Consider Project Management Goal Deliver On-time, On-budget, To-scope Rolling Wave Project Managers Builds a Project Plan but iterates it Works to improve the Project Plan in Waves Progressively Elaborate the Plan as more is learned about scope, pace, requirements..etc. Directs and Manages Project Work DAILY Monitors and Controls the Project Work Daily Trends to consider Generally Accepted Attitudes toward Lean Not all work is equal We can deliver more, much, much more! We can be faster, much, much faster! We need to continually measure, monitor and improve Single data points are meaningless Remove or ruthlessly lessen the burden of non-customer value add work Leaner brings Faster which improves Quality The Slaven Group (c) 16

17 When to use Rolling Wave? Rolling Wave Planning is used when you just don t have enough clarity to plan in detail the entire project. This lack of clarity could come from various factors, such as emerging requirements. Rolling Wave Planning is particularly useful in projects with high uncertainty. Therefore, you must use Risk Management Best Practices. Getting Started on Rolling Wave (RWPM) 1. Develop Internal Capability Consulting Training Project Coaching Pilot Projects Process Definition Rollout & Scaling 2. Leverage External Capability Co-Sourced Rolling Wave Experts Outsourced Rolling Wave PMs Rolling Wave Coaching & Mentoring Rolling Wave Capability and Readiness Assessments RWPM Transition Strategies Bottom-up Approach: Smaller, grassroots focus Pilot project team(s) selection and rollout Proof of concept win - gradually ramp-up a RWPM capability Senior management support Top-down Approach: Establish PMO governance model and program RWPM integrated within PMO RWPM portfolio management The Slaven Group (c) 17

18 How and why might you apply Rolling Wave? Open Discussion in Groups Debrief with the entire audience Questions? Comments? Thank You! Contact information: Charlie Slaven W. Charles Slaven MBA PMP CSSBB CPA (inactive) Director, Lean Deployment and Continuous Improvement for The Christ Hospital Health Network where leads the lean process improvement projects needed to accomplish the organization s strategic plan. He is a Lean Six Sigma Master Black Belt and recently completed his employment as a Master Process Improvement Engineer with The Kroger Company. Charles was a key leader in the implementation of the Kroger Excellence Program which ultimately generated tens of millions of dollars in real financial benefits. He has led these initiatives at many public and private organizations throughout the U.S., U.K., Europe, Australia, Canada, SE Asia, South Africa, South America and Japan in various industries and varied governmental organizations. The Slaven Group (c) 18

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