Books and the book trade in 2015 (2014 figures)

Transcription

1 Books and the book trade in 2015 (2014 figures) The importance of books Books rank a strong 15th in the list of Germans most frequent leisure activities, which includes 52 activities in total. Some 20.4 per cent of German citizens over the age of 14 often read books in the evening (2013: 20.7 per cent), and another 29 per cent do so occasionally (2013: 28.2 per cent). As such, reading books fell back one place compared to the previous year, being overtaken by gardening, which has risen in popularity by about a percentage point ( per cent often; 2013: 19.8 per cent). Reading newspapers has also slipped a place in the current ranking, from third to fourth, with only 52.1 per cent of Germans now doing it often (2013: 53.2 per cent). This has given way to listening to the radio (52.9 per cent of Germans now tune in often). However, it must be encouraging for the media world that a medium that has been declared dead as often as the radio still manages to outstrip Internet use (often: 40.5 per cent). Watching television remains unchallenged as the leading hobby. With an often quota of 77 per cent (2013: 76.8 per cent) TV viewing is, by a wide margin, the leisure time activity which the majority of Germans practise most commonly. Once again, the survey also reflected the use of audiobooks: 1.6 per cent of Germans listen to them often, and 6.4 per cent occasionally (2013: 1.7 and 6.2 per cent, respectively). Book-purchasing behaviour is examined in a separate analysis. No significant changes could be identified here in As in the previous year, 60 per cent of respondents stated that they had bought books. Once again, 43 per cent of them put at least three books in their shopping baskets, and 12 per cent at least 10; and the proportion of bigger spenders who purchase more than 20 books a year remained at five per cent. 1 At 67 per cent (like the year before), the percentage of women who are book-buyers is higher than among men (53 per cent). There is also little change in terms of age groups. Once more, 59 per cent of young people between the ages of 14 and 19 claimed to have bought books last year. A pleasing statistic is that more of these young customers bought 20 or more books an increase from two to three per cent. Using a different analysis to look at even younger readers and what they prefer to do with their leisure time, we see that 51 per cent of all six to 13-year-old children asked are interested in books. The inclination to read books has even increased in the younger generation, with 16 per cent of the children stating they find books very interesting (2012: 14 per cent). The economic development of the German book market The industry s overall sales volume fell by 2.2 per cent in 2014, to billion euros. The German Publishers & Booksellers Association blames this decline on a shortage of mega-bestsellers. Compared to the previous year, the ten top-selling titles in 2014 accounted for 20.2 per cent fewer sales saw a modest increase for the industry in this respect (plus 0.2 per cent), while the two preceding years were also characterised by minus figures, though not as pronounced as in 2014.

2 High-street booksellers, the most important sales channel in Germany, achieved sales of 4.58 billion euros in Following a modest upward movement in 2013, the turnover of the retail bookshops fell again slightly last year, by 1.2 per cent. However, considering the fact that 2014 saw one of the country s larger bookshop chains foundering when Weltbild entered insolvency, the decline in highstreet sales does not seem so severe. Remarkably, despite this reduction in sales, high-street bookshops still managed to win back some of the market share lost in recent years, achieving 49.2 percent of all the industry s sales (2013: 48.6 per cent; 2005: 54.8 per cent). Thus it is working its way back to the 50 per cent mark, below which it dipped for the first time in The online book trade, on the other hand, suffered a significant drop in sales by 3.1 per cent, according to the figures of the German Publishers & Booksellers Association. In 2014, it accounted for just 16.2 per cent of the industry s overall sales, or 1.52 billion euros. The online trade had already seen a fall in sales year before (down 0.5 per cent), despite having still achieved a two-figure growth rate in 2012 (10.4 per cent). The only publishers who could be satisfied with 2014 were those who ended the year having increased their revenues from direct business, the sole distribution channel to have recorded growth (up by 1.5 per cent for a market share of 20.4 per cent; 2010: 18.5 per cent). These figures evidently reflect successful online activities by publishers, who have promoted their books to readers through company websites, blogs and Facebook pages. On the other hand, the traditional mail-order book trade faced a fall in sales of 26 per cent, and it is here that the crisis at Weltbild left its mark. In 2014, books sold through catalogues and mailing campaigns, or over the telephone amounted to only 161 million euros. This was a 1.7 per cent share of overall sales in the industry. At 218 million euros, the volume had been considerably higher in 2013, while in 2010 mail-order book sales were still worth 318 million euros. 2 Likewise, the book clubs have continued to decline in relevance and now account for just 1.3 per cent of total sales (2010: 2.3 per cent). And the crisis facing large departments stores has also had an impact on the book market. While in 2010 they were still responsible for 2.1 per cent of all book sales, the figure currently stands at 1.3 per cent (2005: 4.3 per cent). In a change from previous years, 2014 even saw a drop-off in other sales outlets, including discounters, supermarkets, filling stations and even specialist electronics dealers. This channel lost 2.6 per cent of its sales. Despite this, the market share of these ancillary markets remained constant, with 9.9 per cent of all revenues (2010: 9.4 per cent; 2005: 8.9 per cent).

3 Market structures Throughout Germany there are about 21,600 enterprises which are, in the broadest sense, involved in the production or sale of books. They are listed in the Address Book of the German Book Trade, which is available online at Around 15,400 of these companies almost three quarters are publishing houses or institutions involved in publishing. However, the term bookselling enterprise is defined very broadly. The Address Book includes, for instance, municipalities, university faculties, societies and institutions that only sporadically issue publications. The number of companies that produce and sell books or specialist and scientific magazines on a professional basis is therefore much smaller than the Address Book suggests. Most of them are members of the German Publishers & Booksellers Association (Börsenverein des Deutschen Buchhandels), which represents the interests of the book industry across its different sectors. At the close of 2014, the association s membership stood at 5,147. This included 1,790 publishers, 69 book wholesalers and 21 publishers representatives. Booksellers, which counted 3,204 enterprises, made up the majority of the membership. This figure also differs significantly from the Address Book, which lists as many as 6,000 booksellers. Unlike the membership statistics of the German Publishers & Booksellers Association, the Address Book includes individual entries for branch outlets. Added to this are the so-called book sales points, such as stationery shops, which focus on other segments, and where books make up just a small part if their complete range. Information on the number of bookselling enterprises in Germany, as well as their respective sales figures, can also be derived from the VAT statistics supplied by the Federal Statistical Office, although these are currently only available for the years up to This source records all companies with an annual turnover greater than 17,500 euros, but it also makes other distinctions between the enterprises in question, compared to the German Publishers & Booksellers Association and the Address Book of the German Book Trade. According to these sales statistics, in 2013 there were 2,170 publishers in Germany, 39 fewer than the year before, and 3,896 booksellers. A year-on-year comparison of these figures shows that the number of companies declined over the last year, both in publishing and in bookselling. The number of publishers, which had increased by 50 between 2009 and 2011, experienced further decline last year which left it below the 2009 value. This development can be seen across several size categories, and the overall number of booksellers has been continuously falling for some years now. The number of enterprises involved solely in selling books fell by around 400 between 2009 and Sales breakdown by category and form of publication 3 The fiction segment achieved the largest share of overall book sales (32.4 per cent). While this is a drop of 1.7 percentage points compared to the previous year, it still remains strong compared to 2003 the first year of data collection. In 2003 the share of fiction was 29.5 per cent. Nevertheless, in this respect too 2014 reflected a lack of major bestsellers. In 2012, higher revenues were ensured by the Shades of Grey series, after which fiction sales declined by 3.5 per cent in again saw a fall in sales by 6.7 per cent. The children s and young adult category is the second most important source of sales for the book industry, generating 15.8 per cent of overall sales in 2014 (2013: 15.7 per cent). All the same, this segment, too, recorded a modest fall in sales for the year (down by 1.4 per cent). In third place came self-help books, which once again enjoyed an increase in sales (2014: up 1.2 per cent; 2013: up 5.5 per cent). In 2014 their market share rose to 14.9 per cent (2013: 14.4 per cent),

4 above all thanks to the strong demand for vegan cookery books, but also for books about the football World Cup in Brazil. The non-fiction segment also had a good year in Here, sales climbed by 5.4 per cent, and the market share rose from 9.4 to 10.1 per cent. For all other categories the percentage of market share remained in single figures: schools and learning at 9.2 per cent, travel books at 6.5 per cent. The three categories of scientific books together achieved a share of 11.2 per cent in The fiction category is dominated by narrative literature (share of fiction 2014: 52.5 per cent; 2013: 51.7 per cent), and in second place came suspense books (share of fiction 2014: 25.7 per cent; 2013: 26.3 per cent). Nevertheless, both of these segments still surrendered sales in 2014, with narrative literature losing 5.3 per cent of its income, and suspense (i.e. crime novels) as much as 8.9 per cent. Comics, cartoons, humour and satire comprise the third largest segment in the fiction category, and together they accounted for 8.1 per cent of its revenues (2013: 7.9 per cent). This was followed in fourth place by gift books (market share 2014: 6.2 per cent), and in fifth place by science fiction and fantasy literature. The latter segment experienced a severe fall in sales of 16.3 per cent (market share 2014: 5.9 per cent), which followed a 15.8 per cent fall already the previous year. Within the children s and young adult segment, books for children up to 11 years have been the top sellers since In 2014 they accounted for 27.5 per cent of the segment s revenues (2013: 27.0 per cent). With a market share of 22.6 per cent (2013: 24.8 per cent), young adult books once again formed just the second strongest segment within the category in For years, the bronze medal here has gone to the picture book segment, which enjoys a stable market share have 18.8 per cent (2013: 18.7 per cent). Another constant within this category consists of non-fiction books and nonfiction picture books, which together achieved a 9.5 per cent share (2013: 9.4 per cent). Strong gains were made by the games and learning segment, which held a 9.4 per cent share of all children s and young adult books in 2014 (2013: 8.6 per cent). 4 As in the previous year, food and drink was the largest segment among the self-help books, generating 28 per cent of sales. In absolute terms, sales for the segment increased by 1.3 per cent (2013: plus 16.6 per cent). This upward movement is due above all to the sustained demand for vegan cookery books, but also for books on barbecuing and baking. Of all the non-fiction categories, politics, society and economics secured the largest share of sales, with 31.6 per cent. This was followed by books on history, which contributed 16.3 per cent of nonfiction retail sales (2013: 16.9 per cent). With a 54.3 per cent share, travel guides made up the most important segment within the travel category. They were followed in second place by maps and atlases (market share: 14.6 per cent). Sales indices for e-books in Germany In 2014 e-books accounted for 4.3 per cent of book sales for private use (excluding school textbooks and specialist books. 2013: 3.9 per cent; 2012: 2.4 per cent). As such, the German e-book market has experienced further growth, but only to the comparatively moderate extent of 7.6 per cent. From 2011 to 2012 it expanded threefold, and in 2013 it still managed to increase by about 60 per cent. The private user market for e-books is clearly dominated by fiction, which accounts for 84 per cent of all sales (2013: 83 per cent). Children s and young adult books contribute a five per cent share two percentage points lower than in the previous year. By contrast, self-help books have increased their share by a percentage point to the five per cent mark (2013: four per cent). Evidently there was

5 also a high demand for non-fiction books and dictionaries in 2014 (six per cent; 2013: five per cent). Travel books still make up less than one per cent of e-book sales. Looking at the absolute number of e-books sold, which climbed by a good 15 per cent, there would seem to be a stronger interest in digital reading than the development of the sales curve at first suggests. All told, last year the industry sold 24.8 million e-books to private users, compared to 21.5 million in the year before. Nevertheless, even in terms of numbers sold, the rate of growth was still less pronounced than in previous years. From 2012 to 2013, this figure demonstrated an athletic increase of almost 63 per cent. The mismatch between the developments in sales turnover and numbers sold is due to the decline in prices for the titles bought. Last year, customers paid an average of 7.08 euros for an e-book a fall of 50 cents in just a single year. Prices have declined rapidly over the last five years. In 2010, users paid euros on average for an e-book, which is roughly 3.60 euros more than today. The prices have come under pressure from the many low-cost or even free self-published titles, because of free e-books, including classics available in the public domain, and because of the new subscription models offered by platforms such as Skoobe and Amazon (Kindle Unlimited). The attitudes of German consumers regarding their future e-book usage were documented in a survey carried out by GfK. It emerged that many readers clearly appreciate the advantages of print, because the proportion of those who want to buy books only in printed form in the future rose from 38 per cent in the previous year, to 45 per cent. On the other hand, the share of hybrid customers who want to buy both electronic and printed books in the future fell from 15 to 12 per cent. The number of those wanting to read books exclusively, or mostly, in digital form in the future remained the same, with an eight per cent share. 5 Book production in Germany The total number of titles produced by German book publishers (first editions and reissued titles) experienced a distinct decline in The 87,134 new titles coming onto the market were almost 6,500 fewer than in the year before. The decline in the number of genuine new releases i.e. first editions was even more pronounced, as they fell by 9.8 per cent to 73,863 (2013: 81,919). This means that of the new releases, 84.8 per cent were actually new books (2013: 87.5 per cent). In 2014, the largest number of new releases (14,111) were once again in the fiction category, which also maintained a 19.1 per cent share of first editions. In second place, as usual, came German literature (10,487 new releases; 14.2 per cent). This category is listed separately (even though this might cause some overlapping) and it includes works of literary criticism, unlike the pure fiction category. Third place was once again taken by children s and young adult books (8,142 new releases). This segment plays a more important role in title production than it did five years ago, because its proportion of overall sales has increased. In 2010, children s and young adult books made up 9.6 per cent of new releases, in contrast to the current 11 per cent (2013: 10.1 per cent). Seen proportionally in the context of the overall decline, publishers in this segment have only slightly reduced their title production (2013: 8,268 new releases). In 2014, the majority of the other categories also saw a decline in the number of titles issued. For instance, publishers reduced the number of books they offer in the areas of technology, medicine and applied sciences, with some 1,100 fewer titles entering the marketplace in this category. The production of new releases in the social sciences fell by around 1,400, and there were 500 fewer new titles in the general information, IT and information sciences segment. Only one overarching

6 category saw a modest increase: last year, publishers released 7,254 new history and geography titles onto the market precisely eight books more than in the previous year. That was no coincidence in a year of major historical anniversaries (100 years since the start of World War I, 75 years since the start of World War II, and 25 years since the fall of the Berlin Wall). There were also success stories among smaller individual sub-groups. This was true, for example, of the home economics and family life category, which encompasses books about food and drink or handicrafts. That corresponds with the growing sales in the cookery book market. The publication of paperbacks is evaluated in a separate statistical assessment. According to this, the paperback share of first editions fell only slightly on the previous year from 13.4 to 13.3 per cent. But as with the overall book production, publishers also produced fewer new paperback titles than in the previous year (2014: 9,809; 2013: 10,978). In fiction alone, 2014 saw almost 400 fewer paperbacks coming onto the market (5,069 titles, compared to 5,442 in 2013). However, since paperback production as a whole was distinctly lower in 2014 than in 2013, the share of fiction titles in this format actually rose to 51.7 per cent (2013: 49.6 per cent). Business with other countries Translations With the publishers reducing the number of their new editions to the extent they did last year, this can only have consequences on the German translation market. In 2014, 10,812 works (first editions and reissued titles) were published as translations from other languages into German a good 750 fewer than in However, their relative importance in the book market remained constant: as in the previous year, translations contributed a 12.4 per cent share of in the overall body of first editions and reissued titles. This quota has remained more or less the same since If we ignore reprints and take only true first editions into consideration, the share of translations is somewhat higher saw 9,962 such real new releases in translation entering the German market. They accounted for 13.5 per cent of all first editions, compared to 13.1 per cent in Here too, therefore, there were no huge upheavals. 6 English continues to dominate by a large margin as the language of origin for translations into German. Indeed, the share of English originals among all the translated new releases increased in 2014 to 65.5 per cent (2013: 63.9 per cent). In absolute numbers, 6,527 books were translated from English into German in 2014 (2013: 6,861). Of these, 2,635 were fiction titles. This figure demonstrates the significance of English-language authors in the publishers fiction portfolios, for if we place the literary translations from English in the context of the total 3,755 translated works of fiction in 2014, the language contributes a 70.2 per cent share more than two thirds. In 2013, the figure was 69.9 per cent. Nevertheless, the role of English in the fiction category was even more important in 2012, when it made up a 74.4 per cent share. However, that seems not to have been part of a general upward trend, but rather a one-off surge, partly caused by New Zealand s appearance as Guest of Honour at the Frankfurt Book Fair. The Guest of Honour appearances have long had an impact on the translation patterns of the German publishers. This Frankfurt effect was also clearly visible for the Guest of Honour Brazil, in 2013, when Portuguese entered the top-10 list of most important translation languages, with a share of 0.8 per cent of the overall translation volume. In that year, 90 first editions were published as translations from Portuguese. In 2014, this number fell back again to 32 titles, and Portuguese declined markedly to 14 th in the list of important languages. In

7 2014, Finland presented itself to the public in Frankfurt. As a consequence, the number of Finnish licences purchased has risen from 47 to 81 in the latest statistics. Alongside English, French too carries a certain weight in the translation rankings. Some 1,008 titles were translated from the language of Germany s neighbour in per cent of all translations (2013: 1,121). The French share of all fiction translations was a little higher than in the year before (7.4 per cent, compared to 7.1 per cent in 2013), despite the slight fall in the absolute number of fiction new releases (277 first editions, instead of 287). Ever since 2009, Japanese has held on to third place in the ranking of languages translated into German. In 2014 some 673 titles were translated from this language into German here again, a slightly smaller number than in the previous year (719 titles, down by 6.4 per cent). While this means 6.8 per cent of all translations came from Japanese (2013: 6.7 per cent), Japanese books only contributed 0.9 per cent of the translated fiction. Most translated Japanese books were probably in the comics genre above all manga titles. This year, fourth place was taken by the crime language Swedish. With 283 translations, this just overtook Italian (280 translations), having bucked the trend with a remarkable growth of 13.2 per cent (2013: 250 titles). Licensing In licensing, 2014 was a solid year for German publishers, compared to the year before. Some 6,443 works made in Germany were sold beyond the country s borders, whereas in 2013 German publishers signed 6,466 contracts. As such, the 0.4 per cent contraction from one year to the next was very small. The countries with which German publishers do the most business keep changing over time. As such, one curiosity characterised 2014: exactly 324 deals each were completed with Poland, Russia and Spain, leaving them in a three-way tie for third place in the ranking. While Poland (2013: 286 contracts) and Russia (2013: 281) each registered growth in this respect, Spain dropped off as a licensing partner (2013: 457). 7 In 2014, the licensing business was dominated by two countries: China and France. Customers in China purchased 938 licences, which means the country easily retained its hold on first place in the ranking, despite a modest decline (2013: 998 contracts). By comparison, the second strongest partner, France, was a long way behind, having purchased 334 licenses (2013: 283). Due to the small dip, China s share in the rights business also fell, now accounting for 14.6 per cent of all deals (2013: 15.4 per cent). Despite this, a 10-year comparison clearly shows that the licensing trade with China still takes place at a very high level (2005: 379 contracts). If licences are ranked according to language, Chinese also stands at the very top of the list, with a share of 15.3 per cent (2013: 16.7 per cent). English took second place with 7 per cent (2013: 6.9 per cent), influenced by the large size of the Anglo-American area. The second global language, Spanish, came in third with 6.6 per cent (2013: 8.2 per cent). In particularly high demand among Chinese-speaking partners were children's and young adult books, for which 428 contracts were completed nearly half the total number, but also fewer than in the previous year, when 548 contracts were completed for children s and young adult books. Within this category the strongest demand is for picture books (184 contracts), though likewise with a smaller number than in the previous year (2013: 241 contracts). The same is true of books for children of 11 and under. Only 39 such contracts were signed last year, whereas the year before had seen 161. However, it is perfectly normal for the licensing trade with China to show such fluctuations. Especially in the children s books segment, Chinese partners are very keen to buy entire

8 series; this soon converts into corresponding peaks and dips in the statistics. This time around an upward trend was seen in another sub-segment, with the second highest demand being for books related to games and learning, for which 89 contracts were signed (2013: 13). Among the books for the young generation, third place went to non-fiction and non-fiction picture books, with 84 contracts (2013: 103). All told, last year German publishers completed 25.5 per cent of their licensing deals with Asian partners (2013: 26.5 per cent). Their most important licensees by quantity are still those based in Europe. In 2014, they completed 4,221 contracts with European partners (65.5 per cent), while the year before had seen almost 40 fewer. This time, the leader amongst the European neighbours is France with 334 contracts (2013: 283). The most important category for the licensing trade are children s and young adult books which, with 2,362 licences, made up 36.7 per cent of all sales (2013: 2,357). The majority of contracts in this segment were for picture books (2014: 939; 2013: 839). The second-best-selling category was fiction, accounting for 18.6 per cent of contracts in 2014 (2013: 17.7 per cent), or 1,197 contracts (2013: 1,146). Third place in the ranking belonged to self-help books, with 815 licenses told (2013: 987) and a 12.6 per cent share of the rights trade. Particularly successful here were the hobby/home segment (302 contracts) and counselling/daily life (191 licences). Foreign trade Import and export data for the book industry are currently only available up to As in previous years, the figures show that the export of book industry products is economically much more significant than imports. For some years, the value of exports has been approximately twice that of imports, which is mainly due to the German-speaking neighbours Austria and Switzerland. As such, the industry can demonstrate a fundamentally positive foreign trade balance. Nevertheless, 2013 was a year characterised rather by negative trends in the foreign trade or book industry products. The value of exports sank below the two billion euros mark, while imports failed to pass one billion euros threshold. However, 2013 was not a particularly good year for German foreign trade as a whole. As such, the book industry was in line with the economy as a whole. 8 Compared to 2012, the industry s export sales in 2013 declined by 2.7 per cent (2013: 1.99 billion euros; 2012: 2.05 billion euros). Imports, meanwhile, sank by 5.7 per cent to 0.99 billion euros (2012: 1.05 billion euros). For exports and imports alike, books accounted for at least half of all sales of book industry products. (As well as books themselves, this includes calendars, magazines, newspapers, cartographic products and musical notes). The share of the industry s total sales achieved with imported books and picture books in 2013 amounted to 60.7 per cent, which represents a turnover of 0.6 billion euros. A large proportion of these titles are supplied from the United Kingdom, serving the growing demand for English-language books. A quarter of all book imports originate in the UK, making it the leading country of origin. It is followed in second place by China. All told, 77.3 per cent of imported printed goods come from European countries, with Asia making the second largest trading partner, influenced by the printing industry: 17.3 per cent of all imports in 2013 were delivered from Asian countries. Many companies, especially the publishers of picture books and children s books, get their books printed in Asia. However, 2013 marked a shift in the trend, as the import value of books showed dramatic decline for the first time in years, falling to 151 million euros from 188 million in 2012.

9 Although the European countries only account for 77.3 per cent of imported printed goods, they are the most important export partners for the same, with 90.3 per cent of the total. The largest buyers of German printed products are Austria and Switzerland, which is understandable due to the shared language. In 2013, however, Germany delivered fewer books to both neighbours than in the year before. Although the foreign trade with the German-speaking neighbours was rather sluggish, in France there was a distinctly higher demand for books made in Germany than in The export trade here grew by 8.3 per cent to 101 million euros. Exports to the USA also grew by 7.1 per cent to 66 million euros (previous year: 19.3 per cent). One explanation for this is that German publishers are producing more and more titles in English, for instance in the art book and non-fiction segments. And we can report a further positive development. While book exports declined overall, for picture books there was once again stronger demand than in the previous year. In 2009, their export value was just about 19 million euros. Today that has risen to almost 36 million euros. They now contribute a 1.8 per cent share of the entire portfolio of printed export goods saw a strong surge as the export value climbed by a good five million euros (18.8 per cent). Source: German Publishers & Booksellers Association 2015 From: Buch und Buchhandel in Zahlen