Prediction 2003: CRM Software Market Faces Tough Times

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1 Dataquest Predicts Prediction 2003: CRM Software Market Faces Tough Times Abstract: The customer relationship management software market falls from its pinnacle, and downward license revenue challenges vendors and end users. What is the short- and long-term effect on vendors and end users? By Thomas Topolinski Strategic Planning Assumptions In 2002, the worldwide CRM applications software market size will be down 19 percent (0.5 probability) compared with 2001, and in 2003 it will be up 10 percent (0.2 probability), flat (0.5 probability) or down 5 percent (0.3 probability). Through 2003, buyer behavior related to tightened spending will continue to slow CRM new license growth, which will cause 50 percent of the CRM vendors to dissolve by 2005 (0.7 probability). By 2003, the top five market leaders for CRM application software will include four EAS suite/erp II providers (0.8 probability). Through 2005, innovative new CRM software applications and functionality will only be limited to light enhancements of existing features, while research and development investments are greatly reduced (0.07 probability). Publication Date:November 13, 2002

2 2 Prediction 2003: CRM Software Market Faces Tough Times Introduction: Trouble in the Chicken Coop The customer relationship management (CRM) application software market is under a major transition. Masked by dramatic economic downturns, the market is also undergoing other unrelated changes. Buyer behavioral alterations and awareness that CRM is not an entity, but rather a component of the enterprise computing strategy have created a major shift in vendor ranking, market size and vendor performance. Reduced revenue for the vendors have set the field for 2003, with less innovation expected, new vendor entries into the market leader list and increased risk for end users. Declining growth in CRM Software Market Threatens Vendors For the worldwide CRM software market, including e-commerce sell-side, projections for new license revenue growth is still declining in 2002 and threatening Gartner Dataquest predicts best, most likely and worst case forecasts that incorporate drivers and inhibitors from economic and buyer behavior sources (see Table 1). Table 1 CRM New License Revenue Forecast (Thousands of U.S. Dollars) 2001 Actual Best 3,735,247 3,660,695 4,026,765 Most Likely 3,735,247 3,025,550 3,025,550 Worst 3,735,247 2,801,435 2,661,364 Growth (%) Best Most Likely Worst Source: Gartner Dataquest (November 2002) The current Gartner Dataquest forecast has been moved into the best case, which, based on final third-quarter and fourth-quarter projections, will be high. The third quarter of 2002 surprised most vendors and analysts, following the same trends as the first two quarters. The most likely case is looking as the most probable. Positive projections for the fourth quarter are still possible when comparisons with the fourth quarter of 2002 will be based on a much lower base in the fourth quarter of 2001 than the first three quarters of Buyer behavior has changed dramatically over the past several quarters, resulting in huge drops in sales of new licenses please see the Gartner Dataquest Executive Summary "Outlook for the CRM Software Market: Trends and Forecast (Executive Summary)" [SOFT-WW-EX-0071]). CRM software vendors are in major turmoil, dealing with dramatic drops in revenue. Many vendors have been forced to reduce labor and cut research and development investments. The past six quarters have been tough and are showing little signs of relief for the next two quarters at least. Gartner Dataquest predicts that the result will be that up to 50 percent of the

3 3 vendors providing CRM applications in 2001 will be gone by 2005, either by merger, acquisition or demise. Acquisitions are slower than expected, as many vendors with cash are being cautious and not jumping into the orchard to pick the low-hanging fruit. Dataquest Predicts: In 2002, the worldwide CRM applications software market size will be down 19 percent (0.5 probability) compared with 2001, and in 2003 it will be up 10 percent (0.2 probability), flat (0.5 probability) or down 5 percent (0.3 probability). Dataquest Predicts: Through 2003, buyer behavior related to tightened spending will continue to slow CRM new license growth, which will cause 50 percent of the CRM vendors to dissolve by 2005 (0.7 probability). Impact on 2003 CRM software vendors are struggling to survive in a new market environment plagued with reduced license revenue. End users are in a buyer's market, negotiating discounts and terms across the board, which will result in lower pricing standards for the next several years. Over 70 percent of the vendors are in reduced valuation scenarios, while many have extreme viability issues. Outside of the "gorillas," the majority of smaller and midsize vendors are living off diminishing cash, which will result in demise for some and acquisition for the lucky ones. The following scenarios are likely in 2003: Continued price reductions across the CRM software market Buyers will continue to focus on smaller projects. The focus on new product sales will continue to be based on point solutions and rapid returns. Vendor failures Acquisition of several key CRM software vendors by enterprise application software (EAS) providers Reacting to 2003 CRM software vendors must face the facts and make the adjustments now. Waiting for a recovery is futile. End users must not only base buying decisions on product fit but perform due diligence on the vendor: Know who you are buying from and who they will be in the near future. The reduced new license revenue and root causes imply the following for actions for 2003: Vendors must focus their sales and marketing strategies on the new buying behaviors. Vendors must make the hard decisions now and adjust to the new revenue size. End users must look inside the vendor and base buying decisions on the viability and strength of the vendor as much as the fit of the product. End users must be cautious of a sweet price deal and caution against a souring maintenance and support term.

4 4 Prediction 2003: CRM Software Market Faces Tough Times Enterprise Application Suites and ERP II Moves In One of the major reasons for failed CRM projects or project cost and time overruns lies in integration with other enterprise components. Offerings from enterprise application suite and enterprise resource planning II (ERP II) vendors and the awareness of the value to an enterprise for integrated front- and back-office applications have definitely set its roots. Companies are attempting to move toward a real-time enterprise capability by marketing, selling, manufacturing, shipping and supporting products in a more closely knit operation. Reducing time is the equation that results in less expense, more rapid capture of cash and increased customer satisfaction. A true division of vendors has taken place: pure-plays that offer just a CRM package and integrated enterprise vendors that offer human resources, financial management, operations management (manufacturing resource planning), CRM, supply chain planning, and supplier relationship management. Dataquest Predicts: By 2003, the top five market leaders for CRM application software will include four EAS suite/erp II providers (0.8 probability). Impact on 2003 In 2000, there were four pure plays on the top five CRM software market leader list, while in 2001, there were only two (see Table 2). Gartner Dataquest projects that EAS suite and ERP II vendors have established their foothold in CRM and are here to stay for the future. The first half of 2002 is showing the same trend. Other vendors that have entered into this club are J.D. Edwards, Invensys (BaaN), Brain International, Epicor Software, Softbrands, GEAC, IFS, Infinium, Intentia International and JDA. For a detailed look at market shares for CRM software vendors, see the Gartner Dataquest Market Statistics report "CRM Software Growth Remains Stalled" (SWSA- WW-MS-0112). The following are likely scenarios in 2003: Market share continues to move toward EAS suite and ERP II providers. Competition for new CRM application sales will dramatically increase for the pure-play providers. Many pure-play providers that do not have an expansion plan into EAS suites will either disappear by the end of 2003 or be greatly threatened. Most end users who are shopping now for CRM software will consider the impact of integration for future requirements. Those EAS suite and ERP II vendors that allow unbundling of functionality for point solution sales will gain even more market share.

5 5 Table 2 Vendor Ranking, 2000 and 2001 Rank Siebel (Pure Play) Siebel (Pure Play) 2 Oracle (EAS Suite) SAP (EAS Suite) 3 Broadvision (Pure Play) Oracle (EAS Suite) 4 Vignette (Pure Play) PeopleSoft (EAS Suite) 5 Nortel Clarify (Pure Play) Amdocs Clarify (Acquisition Pure Play) Source: Gartner Dataquest (November 2002) Reacting to 2003 For the pure-play CRM software vendors, positioning for the EAS suite and ERP II competition is vital. For the end users, offerings and promises of embedded integration within a product suite sounds great, but beware of the hype common to new trends. The following are actions that should be considered for 2003: Pure-play CRM software vendors must establish an approach to EAS suite offerings. Pure plays must rely on successful references pertaining integration to combat sales challenges. ERP II vendors must expand beyond selling CRM to their ERP customer base, targeting the open market for CRM opportunities. Pure-play vendors that offer a multivendor, prepackaged integration offering must build references early in 2003 to avoid "hype" stereotypes. End users must carefully assess the vendor's offerings and fully understand where in the vendor experience cycle they will be for EAS suite and ERP II implementations. No New "Next Big Thing" on the CRM Software Horizon With research and development investments down within the CRM software vendors, innovation will be light compared with the past several years. During the fat economic times some 18 months ago, innovation was coming at the end users in a rapid-fire mode. During the past 18 months, it is as if the brakes have been put on for new functionality. The market is stagnant as innovation is concerned because of depressed revenue growth in the CRM software market. End users can expect to see little changes in CRM software products for the next three years. Dataquest Predicts: Through 2005, innovative new CRM software applications and functionality will be limited to light enhancements of existing features, while research and development investments are greatly reduced (0.07 probability). Impact on 2003 End users must expect to use the same level of technology available today for the next three years. There will be little change in features

6 6 Prediction 2003: CRM Software Market Faces Tough Times Gartner Dataquest Perspective and functionality for The following are likely scenarios in 2003: Innovation of CRM software products will be limited to light enhancements of existing products. Entry into CRM software from new EAS suite/erp II providers will not introduce any major new functionality compared with existing products fromthepureplays. End users will have to use what is available today and not expect major innovation for the next three years. Focus will be more on cost reduction vs. increasing sales for end users. New startup entries, which traditionally have introduced many new innovative concepts and products, will be rare and will hold more risk than in the past. Reacting to 2003 Some vendors will attempt to form the impression of innovation though marketing techniques and repackaging. End users will be dealing with the same technology as in the prior year, albeit with some evolution and maturation. The following are actions that should be considered for 2003: End users must employ caution when being pitched new products, examining the gap between the new offering and what is being used today. Plan on maturing what you have in place today and gain as much efficiency out of your current models. Vendors that focus on evolving and maturing current products will gain more ground rather than repackaging or remarketing current products. Bottom Line The three main challenges in 2003 for the CRM application software market are reduced sales of new CRM products, expansion of competition by EAS suite and ERP II vendors, and reduced innovation of new products. This is a total reversal of direction from 2000 and early Not all of the problems challenging the market are rooted in the economic downturn, which means that an economic turnaround will not bring the market back from where it was. When a recovery does occur, much slower growth will replace the hyper-growth of 2000 and prior. Vendor market share will continue to shift from the pure plays to those that offer easier integration. Innovation, which was prominent in the CRM software market, will be slowed for several years. The upside is that end users will haveamorematureproductsettochoosefromwithembedded integration. Through 2003, the successful products will continue to mature and will be more reliable than in the past. More planning on the end user's part will reduce the number of failed projects and slowly, end-user confidence will increase. This will be beneficial to the vendors that survive and will eventually transpose into a riper market.

7 7 Key Issues How is the competitive landscape of this market going to change? What are the future growth prospects for this Industry?

8 8 Prediction 2003: CRM Software Market Faces Tough Times This document has been published to the following Marketplace codes: SOFT-WW-DP-0113 For More Information... In North America and Latin America: In Europe, the Middle East and Africa: In Asia/Pacific: In Japan: Worldwide via gartner.com: Entire contents 2002 Gartner, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the selection of these materials to achieve its intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice

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