California Must Increase Educational Attainment - Community Colleges are Key

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2 Executive Summary Califoria Must Icrease Educatioal Attaimet - Commuity s are Key The future of Califoria depeds heavily o icreasig umbers of Califorias with certificates, associate degrees, ad bachelor s degrees. Educatioal attaimet i Califoria has bee decliig with each youger geeratio - a statistic that bodes poorly for the state s ecoomic competitiveess. It is essetial to icrease educatioal attaimet amog the Latio populatio, as curret levels are relatively low ad the Latio share of the workigage populatio i Califoria is projected to grow from 34% curretly to 50% by With early oe-fourth of the atio s commuity college studets erolled i Califoria, success of the Obama Admiistratio s college attaimet ageda depeds o Califoria icreasig completio rates ad reducig performace gaps i its 112 commuity colleges. Data-Drive Decisios are Gaiig Mometum - Califoria Ca Joi the Effort State actios to icrease college completio are growig, with 23 states (though ot Califoria) siged o to Complete America, ad other foudatio-led iitiatives ivolvig still more states ad college systems. These iitiatives are helpig states use data to uderstad how studets, ad which studets, make, or fail to make, progress toward completio ad to apply that kowledge by chagig istitutioal practices. These efforts have idetified policy chage as a key elemet i the completio ageda. Policy that is well aliged with completio goals ca ehace college efforts to icrease studet success, while poorly-aliged policies ca thwart the best o-the-groud efforts. This report models how data ca be used to idetify ways to icrease studet success. It aalyzes outcomes for over a quarter of a millio degree-seekig studets i the Califoria Commuity s (CCC), trackig those who etered i over six years. We aalyze studet progress through itermediate milestoes as well as three completio outcomes: certificates, associate degrees, ad trasfer. Key Fidigs: Rates too low; disparities too high; aalysis poits to solutios Too few studets reach milestoes; racial/ethic disparities aboud (pp. 4-5) Too may studets fail to complete. Six years after erollig, 70% of degree-seekig studets had ot completed a certificate or degree, ad had ot trasferred to a uiversity (about 75% of black studets ad 80% of Latios). Most had dropped out; oly 15% of the o-completers were still erolled. Critical milestoe is missed. Oly of degree-seekig studets had eared at least 30 college-level credits at the CCC, the miimum eeded to show a sigificat ecoomic beefit. A lower share of Latio (35%) ad black (28%) studets reached this milestoe. Latios face more bumps at the ed of the road. The 30 credit threshold ca provide mometum for completig a educatioal program. However, fewer Latios who reach that poit complete a certificate, degree, or trasfer (47%), compared to white (60%), Asia-Pacific Islader (58%), ad black (53%) studets. Trasfer does ot mea completig two years of study (as we commoly assume), especially for black studets (pp. 6-7) i istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy at califoria state uiversit y, sacrameto

3 Trasfer success is low. About 23% of degree seekers trasferred to a uiversity, ad Latio studets were oly half as likely as white studets to trasfer (14% vs 29%). Majority of studets do ot follow Master Pla itet. May who did trasfer did ot first complete a trasfer curriculum (43% completed it) at the CCC, meaig that trasfer sigifies somethig less tha the completio of the first two years of a bachelor s degree as was iteded i the desig of Califoria s Master Pla. Oly half (52%) of trasfer studets trasferred to a Califoria public uiversity. For-profit sector s role is growig. A icreasig share of trasfer studets is erollig i the for-profit sector, where what little is kow about studet outcomes provides ample reaso for cocer about poor outcomes ad high idebtedess. Black studets are especially likely to trasfer to for-profit istitutios, ad to leave the CCC system with fewer credits completed. A complex trasfer process ad erollmet limits at UC ad CSU help accout for this tred. Demographics are ot destiy (p. 8) Completio rates ad levels of disparity vary. The widely varyig rates of completio ad levels of disparity across colleges of similar size ad similar shares of uder-represeted miority studets suggest that some colleges fid ways to be more effective at helpig studets of all backgrouds make progress. A Model for Improvig Studet Outcomes s perform cohort aalysis of studet progress through milestoes, by race/ethicity: Istitutioal Practices Where do studets get stalled? Which studets? Public reportig of milestoe achievemets State/System Policies Stakeholders (iterest groups, commuity advocates, policy researchers, etc.) compare curret performace levels with desired outcomes What kow successful patters are they ot followig? s do additioal aalysis (e.g., studet iterviews, data o studet use of services) to lear why studets are gettig stalled ad why they are ot followig successful erollmet patters Stakeholders examie curret policies to determie if they support or create barriers to studet success s implemet ew practices based o data aalysis, share results with other colleges, idetify effective practices as well as barriers to implemetig such practices Califoria Commuity s System Idetify opportuities for policy chages to support ad brig to scale successful practices Stakeholders draw from practices i other states to costruct ew policy agedas Goveror, Legislature, Commuity s Board of Goverors Chages i practice Chages i policy Icreased completio Reduced racial/ethic gaps i completio D i v ided W e Fail O c to b er 2010 ii

4 Executive Summary Patters of studet erollmet provide clues for improvemet (p. 9) Studets who followed certai erollmet patters did much better. 59% of studets who eared at least 20 credits i their first year completed a certificate, degree, or trasfer withi six years compared to 21% who did ot; 55% of studets who passed college math withi two years completed, compared to oly 21% who did ot; for Eglish the umbers were 50% ad 20%. But few studets followed the successful patters, with large racial/ethic gaps. Oly 25% of degree seekers eared at least 20 credits i the first year; 29% passed at least oe college-level math course withi two years; 36% passed at least oe college-level Eglish course withi two years (black studets were the least likely to follow these patters); o average, degree-seekig studets dropped or failed over oe third of the credits they attempted blacks completed oly oe-half the credits they attempted. Recommedatios: Practice, Policy, ad their Itegratio (see diagram o page ii ad pp ) Actio to icrease completio for all studets ad reduce racial/ethic disparities must occur o two mutually supportive frots: chages to istitutioal practices at the college level ad chages to state ad system policy. Both rely o the strategic use of data to track studet milestoe achievemet ad erollmet patters. Ad they come together as stakeholder agedas to reform policy become fully iformed by public reportig ad as colleges meet with their peers to discuss policy barriers that are prevetig implemetatio of effective practices. Improvig campus practices The Chacellor s Office should coordiate a systemwide, ad systematic, effort by which cohort data for studet progress through milestoes ad key erollmet patters are aalyzed for every college. s should supplemet cohort data with other aalyses ad use results to istitute chages to campus practices. A formal process, perhaps usig peer groups, should be adopted for campuses to share effective practices ad their impacts. Improvig system ad state policy A ew fudig model should be adopted that rewards colleges for helpig studet progress through milestoes, icludig completig college Eglish ad math, ad for helpig uder-prepared studets meet key milestoes. The Board of Goverors should chage system policy, ad seek statutory chages as ecessary, to esure that all degree-seekig studets are assessed for college readiess ad are directed appropriately ito courses that will expedite their trasitio to, ad success i, college-level istructio. The Legislature should take steps to guard agaist erosio of the historic trasfer fuctio of commuity colleges by ivestigatig recruitig practices ad completio rates at for-profit colleges, eactig policies that ecourage studets to ear associate degrees prior to trasfer, ad esurig sufficiet capacity at UC ad CSU for trasfer studets. Bridgig practice ad policy s should publicly report milestoe data, by subgroup (race/ethicity, geder, age). s should idetify commo policy barriers that prevet them from implemetig ew practices. iii istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy at califoria state uiversit y, sacrameto

5 More Califoria Commuity Graduates are Needed: Data Ca Show the Way Califoria is preparig too few people with the skills ecessary to fill job opeigs the state could produce i occupatios that pay a livig wage. The Public Policy Istitute of Califoria estimates that Califoria could create jobs for oe millio more bachelor s degree holders tha the state is curretly o track to produce. 1 Occupatios that require some postsecodary educatio, but do ot require a bachelor s degree, are also expected to face worker shortages. These middle skill jobs represet the largest share of jobs i Califoria ad the largest share of future opeigs. 2 I particular, there are expected shortages at all levels of postsecodary achievemet i the kids of sciece, techology, egieerig, ad mathematics (STEM) occupatios that are so importat to Califoria s iformatio-based ecoomy, 3 ad i critical health care fields. 4 The projected shortages 5 arise from educatioal attaimet ot keepig up with the eeds of the labor market, which has bee shiftig toward workers with college degrees (Figure 1). Iadequate educatioal attaimet i Califoria mirrors atioal treds, where the data suggest that today s geeratio of youg adults will be less educated tha the previous geeratio without quick itervetio to icrease college erollmet ad, especially, degree completio. The Uited States raks 10th amog Orgaisatio for Ecoomic Co-operatio ad Developmet (OECD) atios i the share of youg adults ages with at least a associate degree, ad the tred i other OECD coutries is toward icreasig levels of educatioal attaimet for each successive geeratio, while attaimet has falle off for youg adults i the U.S. (Figure 2). attaimet i Califoria has actually bee decliig with each youger geeratio, a tred that, if ot reversed, bodes poorly for the state s ecoomic competitiveess with other states ad coutries. While college participatio rates are too low i may states, the bigger problem i Califoria ad elsewhere is low college completio rates, particularly for low-icome studets ad those from the growig populatios historically uderrepreseted i higher educatio. 6 I Califoria, a major reaso for uder-productio of bachelor s degrees is the large Latio erollmet i the commuity colleges (where trasfer to four-year istitutios is problematic) rather tha i four-year istitutios. 7 Educatioal attaimet amog the growig Latio populatio is a particular cocer, as the Latio share of the workig-age populatio i Califoria is projected to grow from about 34% curretly to i 2020 ad 50% i Oly 16% of workig-age (25-64) Latio adults i Califoria curretly have a college degree (associate or higher), compared to 50% of white adults. 9 Natioally, efforts are growig to address the threat posed by decliig educatioal attaimet. Twety-three states Figure 1 Educatioal Attaimet Level i the Workforce Cotiues to Shift Toward Degrees Percet of U.S. Workforce 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 30% 20% 0% 32% 1973 Number of people: 91 millio 129 millio 154 millio 166 millio Note: 1973 data did ot iclude some college category 7% 11% 9% 28% 12% 19% 37% 21% 42% 23% 8% 19% 34% 17% 30% 12% 17% 28% 11% (projected) 45% Master s degree or higher Bachelor s degree Associate degree Some college, o degree High school graduate High school dropout Source: Ceter o Educatio ad the Workforce, Georgetow Uiversity, Help Wated: Projectios of Jobs ad Educatio Requiremets through 2018 (Jue, 2010), based o aalysis of data from the U.S. Cesus Bureau s Curret Populatio Survey D i v ided W e Fail O c to b er

6 More Califoria Commuity Graduates are Needed: Data Ca Show the Way Figure 2 Percet of Adults with a Associate Degree or Higher by Age Group - Leadig OECD Coutries, the U.S., ad Califoria Percet of Adults with Associate Degree or Higher 60% 50% 30% 20% 0% Korea Caada Japa New Zealad Norway Uited States Califoria 55 to to to to 34 Source: Natioal data are from the Orgaisatio for Ecoomic Cooperatio ad Developmet s Educatio at a Glace Not show o the graph are Irelad, Demark, Belgium ad Australia, which also rak ahead of the U.S. o attaimet amog youg adults (ad have icreasig attaimet levels for youger populatios). Data for Califoria are from the America Commuity Survey year estimates (though ot Califoria) have siged o to Complete America, a foudatio-fuded iitiative to dramatically icrease the college completio rate through state policy chage. 10 The Natioal Associatio of System Heads ad The Educatio Trust are workig with 24 public higher educatio systems across the coutry to reduce the gaps i outcomes for low-icome ad miority studets. 11 The Lumia ad Gates foudatios have set ambitious goals for icreasig the atio s college attaimet rate. The Obama Admiistratio has set a goal for the atio to oce agai lead the world i postsecodary degree attaimet, brigig icreased attetio to the importace of commuity colleges i meetig that goal. Nowhere is the atioal priority of improvig commuity college outcomes more importat tha i Califoria, where early oe-fourth of the atio s commuity college studets are erolled ad where, with a high ad growig percetage of Latio studets, the beefits of closig the racial/ethic performace gaps is the greatest. These 112 colleges are vital to the future social ad ecoomic health of Califoria, as well as to the success of the atioal ageda to restore America s competitive positio i the global ecoomy. But the challeges are may. Reflectig socioecoomic status ad the quality of the schools they atted, Latio studets i Califoria s K-12 educatio system demostrate lower levels of proficiecy i math ad laguage arts as they eter high school, they take fewer advaced math ad sciece courses while i high school, they are less likely to graduate ad are less likely to have completed a college-preparatory curriculum whe they do. 12 Latio studets are more likely to begi their postsecodary educatio i a commuity college, 13 puttig a premium o the effectiveess of these istitutios for addressig the disparity i educatioal attaimet, ad highlightig i particular the critical role of the trasfer process i icreasig baccalaureate attaimet. Data Aalysis of Studet Progress Ca Help Show the Way completio iitiatives are ecouragig colleges to use data (ad cohort data i particular 14 ) to uderstad how studets (ad which studets) make, or fail to make, progress toward completio ad to apply that kowledge by chagig istitutioal practices. These iitiatives have also idetified state policy as a vital parter i studet success efforts. Some existig policies may actually impede colleges from adoptig better approaches. These iitiatives are pushig states to adopt policies that are optimally supportive of effective college practices. 2 istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy at califoria state uiversit y, sacrameto

7 We adopt the same perspective i this report. We use CCC cohort data to examie studet progress through itermediate outcomes ad o to the completio of certificates, degrees ad trasfers, i order to uderstad where studet progress stalls. We demostrate how this kid of data aalysis ca be used by colleges to idetify more effective practices. Ad we suggest how state ad system policies could better support colleges i their efforts to implemet more effective practices. The report is orgaized ito several sectios: We examie studets progress i reachig certai milestoes, or measurable itermediate achievemets alog the pathway to a degree, as we have doe i recet reports. 15 We describe the gaps across racial/ ethic populatios i the share of studets reachig these milestoes. We highlight some of the specific patters exhibited by trasfer studets, to iform curret efforts to improve the trasfer fuctio of the commuity colleges. We briefly discuss the variatio across similar colleges i both completio rates ad levels of racial/ethic disparity. We show the extet to which studets are followig erollmet patters that make ultimate degree completio more likely, ad the gaps across racial/ethic groups i followig those patters. We offer coclusios ad recommedatios for educators ad policymakers. I our aalyses, we focus o degree seekers defied as those erollig i commuity college for the purpose of earig a certificate or degree or trasferrig to a uiversity (see Data ad Methods box). Data ad Methods Data Source: Califoria Commuity s Chacellor s Office The studet uit record (SUR) data from the Chacellor s Office Maagemet Iformatio System (COMIS) iclude demographic iformatio, course-takig records, ad records of degrees/certificates eared ad trasfers to 4-year uiversities (based o matches to the Califoria State Uiversity, the Uiversity of Califoria, ad the Natioal Studet Clearighouse). We obtaied data for the eterig cohort of first-time CCC studets who erolled i credit courses durig the academic year. No-credit studets ad high school studets cocurretly erolled i commuity college were excluded. We tracked the studets over a 6-year period, through Methods The aalyses focus o studets idetified as degree seekers (a term we use to iclude degrees ad certificates) based o havig erolled i more tha six uits durig the first year. This defiitio was proposed by the promiet higher educatio researcher Clifford Adelma as oe elemet of improvig the federal methodology for calculatig commuity college graduatio rates. 16 Usig Adelma s criterio, about two-thirds of studets (255, 253) i the cohort were idetified as degree seekers. We calculated the percet of studets who reached milestoes, the rates of milestoe achievemet by race/ ethicity, ad the share of studets followig a selected set of erollmet patters that research demostrates are correlated with degree completio. We use four broad racial/ethic categories: white, Asia-Pacific Islader, black, ad Latio. (Although the CCC collect data for several sub-populatios withi the Asia-Pacific Islader ad Latio categories, the data we received had bee aggregated ito larger categories. There may be substatial differeces across sub-populatios that are masked by usig oe category.) I some cases we show results for black, Latio, ad Native America studets together i a combied group of uder-represeted miority (URM) studets. D i v ided W e Fail O c to b er

8 Too Few Studets Reach Milestoes o the Road to Degree Completio Figure 3 shows the percet of degree seekers i a cohort of CCC studets that achieved differet milestoes (itermediate milestoes ad completios) withi six years: By the secod year, cohort erollmet had falle early by half. 17 The majority of studets achieved college pathways status a term used by researchers for completio of at least 12 college-level credits. 18 Two out of five studets eared oe year of college-level credits (30 semester credits 19 ), the miimum that research has foud to correlate with a sigificat icrease i earigs % completed a trasfer curriculum (as best we ca defie it 21 ), smaller tha the share that actually trasferred to a uiversity (23%), idicatig that may studets trasfer without first completig two years of study. A very small portio eared a certificate ad oly 11% were awarded a associate degree. About 31% completed a certificate or degree, or trasferred to a uiversity withi six years of erollig i the CCC 22 (most of the o-completig studets had dropped out; oly 15% were still erolled). Figure 3 Milestoe Attaimet ad Completio withi 6 Years Percet of Degree Seekers Achievig Milestoe 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 30% 20% 0% 73% Retaied 2d Term 56% Retaied 2d Year 61% 12+ -Level Credits 30+ -Level Credits 15% Trasfer Curriculum 5% Certificate 11% Associate Degree 23% Trasferred 31% Ay Completio Itermediate Milestoes Completio Figure 4 Milestoe Attaimet ad Completio Withi 6 Years by Race/Ethicity White API Black Latio Percet of Degree Seekers Achievig Milestoe 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 30% 20% 0% 56% 61% 47% 56% Retaied 2d Year 65% 68% 49% 56% 12+ -Level Credits 42% 48% 28% 35% 30+ -Level Credits 16% 23% 7% 12% Trasfer Curriculum 5% 5% 4% 4% Certificate 12% 14% 8% Associate Degree 29% 24% 20% 14% Trasferred 37% 35% 26% 22% Ay Completio Itermediate Milestoes Completio Note: studets ca be double-couted i the certificate, associate degree, trasfer measures 4 istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy at califoria state uiversit y, sacrameto

9 Black ad Latio studets were less likely to reach milestoes tha white ad Asia-Pacific Islader (API) studets (Figure 4): Latio studets were about as likely as white studets to persist to the secod term (ot show) ad secod year, but they were less likely to reach the other milestoes, ad were oly half as likely as white studets to trasfer (14% vs 29%). Through follow up aalysis we leared that, of all studets who reached the 30 credit milestoe, Latio studets were the least likely to advace to completio. Black studets were also less likely tha white studets to trasfer (20% vs 29%), havig somewhat higher trasfer success tha Latio studets, but they were the least likely to complete a trasfer curriculum prior to trasferrig. The comparatively low overall completio rate for Latio studets was largely related to their low rate of trasfer. Black studets completed certificates ad degrees at a lower rate tha Latio studets, but their higher likelihood of trasfer (though mostly without completig a trasfer curriculum) led to a higher overall completio rate. Because of their lower rates of success, uder-represeted miority (URM) studets made up a much lower share of completers (30%) tha they did of icomig degree seekers (43%)(Figure 5). The drop from etry share to completio share was largely accouted for by Latios, who accouted for a third of icomig degree seekers but less tha a quarter of completers. More tha oe-third of white (37%) ad API (35%) studets completed somethig (certificate, degree, or trasfer), compared to 26% of black studets ad 22% of Latios. Figure 5 Racial/Ethic Distributio of Degree Seekers Compared to Completers Degree Seekers Completers Latio 34% White Black 7% Latio 23% White 48% Black 9% API 18% API 22% D i v ided W e Fail O c to b er

10 Trasfer Does t Mea Completig Two Years, Especially for Black Studets Commuity colleges are essetial to the productio of baccalaureate degrees i Califoria. The state s Master Pla limits freshma admissio at public uiversities to the top third of high school graduates. Some studets who do graduate i the top third choose to eroll first i a commuity college, itedig to trasfer. It may be surprisig to those familiar with this desig feature of the Master Pla to lear that "trasfer" does ot mea what it has commoly bee assumed to mea: the movemet of studets from the CCC to the Uiversity of Califoria (UC) or Califoria State Uiversity (CSU) after earig two years of credit toward a bachelor s degree. May studets trasfer without completig a trasfer curriculum or earig a associate degree As show i Figure 6: Oly 43% of studets who trasferred to a uiversity had completed a trasfer curriculum at the CCC, which requires at least 60 trasferable credits, icludig Eglish ad math. About oe-fourth eared a associate degree. Black trasfer studets were far less likely tha others to complete a trasfer curriculum, with oly 22% doig so. While Latio studets were the least likely to trasfer, those who did were actually more likely tha most others to have completed a trasfer curriculum or associate degree. UC ad CSU accept very few trasfer studets at the freshma or sophomore levels so most trasfers to i-state public uiversities have completed a trasfer curriculum. 23 UC ad CSU trasfers eared a average of 68 trasferable credits at commuity college. Studets who trasferred without completig a trasfer curriculum or a associate degree eared a average of oly 22 trasferable credits. Because of UC ad CSU policies, these studets are mostly trasferrig to private oprofit ad for-profit istitutios that do ot require trasfer studets to be prepared to begi juior-level study at a uiversity. Oly half of trasfers eroll i CSU or UC with key differeces by race/ ethicity Aother surprisig fidig, i view of the Master Pla, is that oly half (52%) of the trasfers were to oe of the state s public uiversities. As oted, this reflects the low percetage of trasfer studets who complete a trasfer curriculum. Figure 7 shows some strikig differeces across racial/ethic groups i trasfer destiatio: Figure 6 Most Trasfer Studets Have Not Completed Two Years of Credits Completed Trasfer Curriculum Completed Associate Degree 100% Percet of Trasfer Studets 80% 60% 20% 0% 43% 27% 39% 25% 57% 26% 22% 23% 48% 36% All Trasfers White API Black Latio 6 istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy at califoria state uiversit y, sacrameto

11 Asia-Pacific Isladers ad Latios were the most likely to eroll i oe of the state s public uiversities, ad black studets were the least likely. There were differeces across racial/ethic groups i the divisio of those trasfers betwee UC ad CSU. Fiftee percet of the black ad Latio trasfers to the state s public uiversities erolled i UC, compared to 21% of white trasfers ad 31% of API trasfers. Black trasfer studets were more likely to eroll i out-ofstate public ad private istitutios (42%) tha i CSU or UC (31%), ad early oe i five (19%) erolled i for-profit colleges, 24 more tha twice the share amog white ad API trasfers. Latio trasfers were the least likely to go to out-ofstate istitutios (15%), but early as high a share (16%) erolled i for-profit colleges as amog black studets. Trasfer of CCC studets to the for-profit sector has bee icreasig dramatically i recet years. For example, the aual umber of trasfers to the Uiversity of Phoeix icreased by 33% betwee 2003 ad 2008, from 6,638 to 8, Over the same five-year period, trasfers to CSU icreased by 8% (from 50,746 to 54,971) ad trasfers to UC icreased by 13% (from 12,275 to 13,909). Likely reasos for the disproportioate growth i trasfers to for-profit colleges iclude capacity costraits i CSU ad UC due to cuts i state fudig, complex requiremets for trasfer admissio to CSU ad UC, ad recruitig efforts by the for-profit istitutios. Whatever the reasos, the tred bears watchig give (1) the large ivestmet of state resources i the for-profit colleges through the Cal-Grat program 26 (2) cocers about low graduatio rates, 27 recruitig practices, ad educatioal quality i that sector, 28 (3) the excessive debt loads ad high loa default rates of their studets, ad (4) dimiishig capacity at UC ad CSU to receive trasfer studets. Figure 7 Trasfer Destiatio Varies by Race/Ethicity For-Profit 8% Out-of-State Private White Trasfer Studets Out-of-State Public 22% I-State Private 12% UC CSU 38% Black Trasfer Studets For-Profit 7% Out-of-State Private 5% Out-of-State Public 12% I-State Private API Trasfer Studets UC 21% CSU 45% Latio Trasfer Studets For-Profit 19% CSU 26% Out-of-State Private 5% For-Profit 16% Out-of-State Private 14% Out-of-State Public 28% I-State Private 8% UC 5% Out-of-State Public I-State Private UC 9% CSU 50% D i v ided W e Fail O c to b er

12 Some s Achieve Better Parity i Outcomes by Race/Ethicity We, like other researchers, have documeted lower rates of success amog URM studets, a troublig coditio that is ofte attributed to factors that vary by race/ethicity rather tha to race/ethicity per se, icludig socioecoomic status ad academic preparatio. 29 URM studets i Califoria s commuity colleges are more likely to have atteded highly segregated, over-crowded K-12 schools with high cocetratios of low-icome studets, limited access to well-qualified teachers ad couselors, ad fewer opportuities to egage i a rigorous college-preparatory curriculum. 30 It is udoubtedly true, as the colleges have argued, 31 that the resources provided to them are iadequate to the task of servig studets with may obstacles to overcome o the path to a college degree. But sice fudig per studet is early equalized across the colleges, 32 variatios i outcomes across colleges of similar size ad demographic compositio 33 would suggest that some colleges are usig the resources they have more effectively to help studets of all backgrouds make progress. To test this otio we compared the completio rates of URM ad white studets i idividual colleges. 34 We divided the colleges by size of erollmet ad by the share of URM studets amog degree seekers, ad foud wide variatio i both completio rates ad disparity levels. For example, as show i Figure 8, s 1 ad 2 are both small colleges (total erollmet of <10,000) with a low share (<25%) of URM studets. The overall completio rate for URM studets i 1 was 34%, early the same as the completio rate for white studets (37%). 2 had a much larger disparity i outcomes, with white studets completig at more tha twice the rate of URM studets (33% ad 16%, respectively). Amog large colleges (total erollmet of >20,000) with a high share (>50%) of URM studets, s 11 ad 12 had idetical completio rates for white studets (35%) ad lower rates for URM studets, but 11 had less of a disparity betwee the two rates. I each erollmet/urm category we could idetify a college that had, for whatever reasos, bee able to miimize the completio rate disparity. It must become a systemwide priority to idetify effective practices for helpig disadvataged studets overcome barriers ad to promote uiversal adoptio of effective practices across the system. Figure 8 Some s Are More Effective with URM Studets; s of Similar Size ad Demographic Profile Produce Very Differet Outcomes White Completio Rate URM Completio Rate 60% 50% Completio Rate 30% 20% 0% Low URM (<25%) High URM (>50%) Low URM (<25%) High URM (>50%) Low URM (<25%) High URM (>50%) Small s (<10,000) Medium s (10,000 20,000) Large s (>20,000) 8 istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy at califoria state uiversit y, sacrameto

13 Too Few Studets Follow Successful Patters Racial Gaps Appear Here as Well The research literature has revealed much about the erollmet patters that are associated with studet progress ad degree completio. 35 The value i fidig ad moitorig these patters is i usig that kowledge to ecourage more studets to follow them. I a study titled Steps to Success, we used data for a earlier cohort of CCC studets to show that studets were more likely to make progress alog the milestoes ad complete a certificate, degree, or trasfer if they followed certai patters, icludig: passig college-level math ad Eglish early i their college career (grade C or better) takig a college success course gaiig mometum through credit accumulatio by erollig full-time ad cotiuously, completig at least 20 credits i the first year of erollmet, earig credits durig summer terms, ad avoidig excessive course withdrawals ad late registratio. The differeces betwee followig ad ot followig successful patters ca be great. Note the followig three examples of how studets who followed the successful patters had much higher rates of completig certificates, degrees, or trasfers tha studets who did ot follow those particular patters: Passed college-level Eglish withi 2 years? Yes 50% completed No 20% completed Passed college-level math withi 2 years? Yes 55% completed No 21% completed Accumulated at least 20 credits i first year? Yes 59% completed No 21% completed Figures 9 ad 10 show that too few studets i the CCC are followig successful patters, ad that URM studets trail i early every case. Oly 25% of degree seekers eared at least 20 credits i the first year, ad a similar share (29%) completed at least oe college-level math course withi two years (Figure 9). Slightly more (36%) successfully passed at least oe collegelevel Eglish course withi two years. More tha oe-third of API studets followed each of these patters. Black studets were the least likely to complete math ad Eglish early ad to ear 20 credits i the first year. More detailed aalysis of studet erollmet patters ca help explai what studets are doig if ot followig successful behaviors. As oe example, we foud that of studets who did ot pass college math withi two years: 54% attempted o math courses 29% erolled i math but oly at the remedial level 17% erolled i at least oe college math course but dropped or failed the courses. Oe obvious implicatio of this aalysis is that colleges ca do more to ecourage studets to eroll sooer i math courses. O average, degree-seekig studets completed 63% of attempted credits, meaig they dropped or failed more tha oe-third (Figure 10). Black studets completed oly half of the credits they attempted. Latio studets dropped or failed more tha of their credits. Percet of Degree Seekers Followig the Patter Percet of Credits Completed Figure 9 Few Studets Follow Successful Erollmet Patters 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 30% 20% 0% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 30% 20% 0% 36% 29% 25% Passed -Level Eglish Withi 2 Years Passed -Level Math Withi 2 Years Eared 20+ Credits Year 1 All Degree Seekers Figure 10 Percet of Credits Completed by Race/Ethicity 63% All Degree Seekers 39% 30% 27% White API Black Latio 67% 39% 38% 34% 71% 26% 17% 16% 49% 33% 25% 21% 58% White API Black Latio D i v ided W e Fail O c to b er

14 Summary of Fidigs: Serious Problems but Tools for the Job Our aalysis of outcomes, by race/ethicity, for the cohort of CCC studets leads to several key fidigs. Completio rates must rise; disparities must fall. The rates of progress ad completio amog CCC studets are far too low to meet Califoria s projected demad for educated workers. There are disparities by race/ethicity at every step of the way that will exacerbate the problem give demographic treds uless busiess as usual eds ad fudametal chages are itroduced to icrease studet success. 30% completio rate is too low. Six years after iitially erollig i the CCC, oly 30% of degree-seekig studets had completed a certificate or degree, or had trasferred to a uiversity. Most of the other 70% had dropped out; oly 15% were still erolled. Oly 26% of black studets ad 22% of Latio studets had completed or trasferred after six years. Critical milestoe is missed. Oly of degree-seekig studets had eared at least 30 college-level credits at the CCC, the miimum eeded to show a sigificat ecoomic beefit. A eve lower share of Latio (35%) ad black (28%) studets reached this milestoe. Latios face more bumps at the ed of the road. The 30 credit threshold ca provide mometum for completig a educatioal program. However, fewer of the Latios who reached that poit completed a certificate, degree, or trasfer (47%), compared to white (60%), Asia- Pacific Islader (58%), ad black (53%) studets. Trasfer is ot what we ted to thik it is. Trasfer oe of the completios we report should be raisig red flags because patters of trasfer do ot follow the Master Pla itet. Most studets trasfer before fiishig two years of study (may well before) ad a growig share, especially of black ad Latio studets, is trasferrig to for-profit istitutios, where there are growig cocers about low completio rates ad high levels of studet debt. Trasfer success is low. About 23% of degree seekers trasferred to a uiversity, ad Latio studets were oly half as likely as white studets to trasfer (14% vs 29%). Majority of studets do ot follow Master Pla itet. Oly 43% of trasfers completed a trasfer curriculum (60 trasferable credits icludig Eglish ad math) before trasferrig ad just 27% of trasfers eared a associate degree. Barely half (52%) of trasfer studets erolled i a Califoria public uiversity, where completio of at least 60 trasferable uits is geerally required. For a variety of reasos, which eed to be explored, the commuity college trasfer fuctio is ot primarily servig to direct studets ito upper divisio study at UC ad CSU. For-profit sector s role is growig. A icreasig share of trasfer studets is erollig i the for-profit sector, where what little is kow about studet outcomes provides ample reaso for cocer about poor outcomes ad high idebtedess. The studets goig to the for-profit sector are disproportioately the uder-represeted miority populatios whose degree attaimet levels we most eed to improve. Black studets are especially likely to trasfer to for-profit istitutios ad to leave the CCC system with fewer credits completed. Demographics are ot destiy. As ope access istitutios, commuity colleges serve may studets facig serious obstacles to success, icludig the uder-represeted miority populatios whose poorer outcomes we have documeted i this report. Yet we foud that some colleges show better outcomes for such studets tha their peers. Some colleges may have foud better practices. Poorer outcomes for uder-represeted miority studets are udoubtedly related to socioecoomic status ad level of academic preparatio for college. But the widely varyig rates of completio ad levels of disparity across colleges of similar size ad similar shares of uder-represeted miority studets suggest that some colleges are fidig ways to be more effective at helpig studets of all backgrouds make progress, despite budgetary ad other barriers. 10 istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy at califoria state uiversit y, sacrameto

15 Patters of studet erollmet provide clues for improvemet. Research has documeted that certai erollmet behaviors icrease studet chaces of success but few CCC studets are followig those patters; targetig ew efforts to ecourage more effective erollmet patters could be a high-yield strategy. Aalyzig these differeces by race/ ethicity reveals additioal opportuities for ew approaches. Studets who followed certai erollmet patters did much better. As examples: 50% of studets who took ad passed college Eglish withi two years completed a certificate, degree, or trasfer withi six years, compared to oly 20% of studets who did ot; 59% of studets who eared at least 20 credits i their first year completed withi six years, compared to 21% of studets who did ot. Other examples aboud ad provide ample opportuity to focus campus strategies. But few studets followed the successful patters. Studets are ot takig ad completig gateway courses early. Oly 25% of degree seekers eared at least 20 credits i the first year; oly 29% completed at least oe collegelevel math course withi two years; 36% successfully passed at least oe college-level Eglish course withi two years (black studets were the least likely to complete math ad Eglish early ad to ear 20 credits i the first year); o average, degree-seekig studets dropped or failed over oe-third of the credits they attempted, with black studets completig oly half the credits they attempted. D i v ided W e Fail O c to b er

16 Recommedatios: Usig Data to Improve Istitutioal Practice ad State/System Policy Actio to icrease completio ad reduce racial/ethic disparities must occur o two mutually supportive frots: chages to istitutioal practices at the college level ad chages to state ad system policy (see Diagram o p. ii). Both rely o the strategic use of data to track studet milestoe achievemet ad erollmet patters. There are promisig efforts uderway across the CCC to improve practice; policy reform efforts are movig more slowly. There are ample opportuities for colleges to target strategies more effectively, based o data, to produce better studet outcomes. At the same time, state ad system policy chages ca ehace college efforts to improve outcomes just as poorly coceived policies ca thwart the best college efforts to help studets succeed. Recommedatios to Improve Istitutioal Practice 1 The Chacellor s Office should coordiate a systemwide, ad systematic, effort by which cohort data are aalyzed for every college. Every college should, o the basis of these aalyses, set goals for improvig its completio rates ad reducig disparities. All colleges should use a commo framework for aalysis that icludes a set of milestoes ad a set of erollmet patters that have bee documeted to correlate with success. We suggest the followig compoets for aalysis ad reportig, all compiled by subgroup (race/ethicity, geder, age): Milestoes 2d term retetio 2d year retetio 12+ college credits 30+ college credits Trasfer curriculum (60 trasferrable credits, icludig Eglish ad math) Certificate Associate degree Trasfer with trasfer curriculum Trasfer without trasfer curriculum Erollmet Patters Atted full-time i first term Take college success course Eroll cotiuously Pass college-level math withi 2 years Pass college-level Eglish withi 2 years Complete 20+ credits i first year Ear summer credits % course withdrawals % course late registratio Table 1 shows how we used these metrics to suggest chages i istitutioal practice - but if each college aalyzed its ow data, strategies at each college could be ideally targeted to idividual circumstaces. Table 1 Examples of How Cohort Aalysis Ca Poit to Campus Practices What we foud: A small percetage of studets are earig at least 20 first-year credits, failig to build mometum Studets are failig or withdrawig from a sigificat portio of their courses A small percetage of studets are completig college-level math ad Eglish withi two years Studets trasfer well short of credits to begi juior-level work Studets reach 30-uit milestoe but do ot progress to completio What istitutioal practices might help: success course Better fiacial aid couselig to emphasize beefits of full-time erollmet O-lie summer courses Early alert systems to cotact studets at the first sig of trouble ad direct them to help Limits o course drops ad repeats or extra fee for course withdrawal past a certai date or for course repeats Orietatio ad advisig to emphasize importace of takig the courses early Learig commuities for basic skills studets Trasfer advisig to ecourage effective course-takig Support programs modeled after first year experiece but for later years 12 istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy at califoria state uiversit y, sacrameto

17 s should supplemet cohort aalysis with more i-depth study, (e.g., studet iterviews, data o studet use of support services) to better uderstad why studets are gettig stalled ad why they are ot followig successful erollmet patters. A formal process should be iitiated by which colleges, perhaps orgaized by peer group, share iformatio about the chages i istitutioal practice they have implemeted as a result of their aalyses ad what impact their ew practices have had o the measures of studet progress. Recommedatios to Improve Policy to Better Support Success Strategies Policy is a vital parter i studet success efforts. As importat as it will be for colleges to study their data ad implemet ew approaches, there is a limit to what ca be accomplished without chages to the policy eviromet i which colleges operate. Whe policy is well aliged with goals of studet success, colleges ca more easily take the steps that are suggested by their data aalysis. Natioal iitiatives to icrease college completio, spurred by major foudatios, are pushig states to adopt policies that are optimally supportive of effective college practices. To that ed we offer three specific policy recommedatios that stem directly from our data aalysis. We believe these chages will support commuity college efforts to icrease college completio ad close the itolerable gaps across racial/ethic populatios. Our last policy recommedatio addresses the broad policy eviromet for all of Califoria higher educatio. 2 A ew fudig model should be adopted that rewards colleges for helpig studet progress through milestoes, icludig completig college-level Eglish ad math, ad for helpig uder-prepared studets meet key milestoes. Our aalysis revealed serious shortcomigs i the extet to which studets are movig through key milestoes o their way to earig certificates or degrees or trasferrig to uiversities. The cocept of milestoes, or itermediate measures of studet progress, is growig i popularity as states become coviced that fudig based solely o erollmet is ot providig the right icetive for improvig studet progress ad success. Several states have adopted this approach ad more are cosiderig it. The milestoes approach has great potetial to overcome the shortcomigs of earlier geeratios of performace fudig i higher educatio, which put too much emphasis o graduatio rates, failed to reward istitutios for studet progressio, ad were ot based o the rich data that ca come from cohort aalysis of milestoe attaimet. I view of fidigs from our cohort aalysis, we recommed that the ew fudig model iclude fiacial icetives for gettig studets to complete key milestoes ad that it cotai extra icetives for milestoe attaimet by uder-prepared studets, to help close the gaps ad ot disadvatage colleges that serve more uder-prepared studets. 3 The Board of Goverors should adopt chages to system policy, ad seek statutory chage as ecessary, to esure that all degree-seekig studets are assessed for college readiess, ad are directed appropriately ito courses that will expedite their trasitio to ad success i college-level istructio. Commuity colleges across the atio are devisig strategies to best help studets who arrive uder-prepared for collegelevel istructio. Califoria lags other states i adoptig reforms that would require studets to be assessed. This has serious ramificatios for the kid of data aalysis we recommed. Without complete data o who is ad who is ot prepared for college-level study, colleges caot carefully study outcomes for uder-prepared studets or moitor the impact of various istructioal ad support strategies. Further, other states are leadig the way i reformig delivery systems for remedial educatio aimed at miimizig the time studets sped i draw-out remedial sequeces while carefully cotrollig studet access to college-level courses to esure that studets have the skills to read ad write at college level before takig courses that require those skills. Some policy reforms to address this set of issues are beig cosidered by the CCC but immediate actio is warrated to help uderprepared studets progress ad succeed. 4 The Legislature should take steps to guard agaist erosio of the historic trasfer fuctio of commuity colleges by ivestigatig recruitig practices ad completio rates at for-profit colleges, eactig policies that ecourage studets to ear associate degrees prior to trasfer, ad esurig sufficiet capacity at UC ad CSU for trasfer studets. D i v ided W e Fail O c to b er

18 Recommedatios: Usig Data to Improve Istitutioal Practice ad State/System Policy Our aalysis showed that large umbers of commuity college studets are trasferrig with few uits completed ad i growig umbers to for-profit istitutios, whose recruitmet practices atioally are uder ivestigatio, ad whose completio rates are feared to be exceedigly low. These istitutios are recruitig heavily amog Latio ad black studets whose success is so critical to Califoria s future. The Legislature should call for trasparecy i the practices ad outcomes of for-profit colleges perhaps by meas of imposig coditios for istitutioal eligibility to participate i Cal Grat programs. Additioally, ogoig efforts i the Legislature to improve trasfer pathways for studets should icorporate icetives for studets to complete a trasfer curriculum ad ear a associate degree while at commuity college. 5 Califoria eeds a public ageda for higher educatio A policy framework is eeded that sets goals across all three segmets (UC, CSU, ad CCC) for college participatio ad degree completio, idetifies the policies ad ivestmets eeded to accomplish those goals, ad moitors progress toward achievig the goals (icludig goals ad progress related to closig achievemet gaps). We have recommeded this previously, as has the Legislative Aalyst s Office. The states that are leadig the way with ew approaches to icrease completio, ad attractig foudatio moey i the process, are doig so uder the guidace of such a strategic documet. Califoria s approach to higher educatio is far too fragmeted ad u-strategic for the state to be cosidered at the forefrot of atioal college completio efforts. Recommedatios to Lik Practice ad Policy Advocates ad stakeholders regularly promote policy agedas i the iterest of improvig studet success. We hope that the completio rates ad disparities documeted i this report will spur more active policy agedas by stakeholders committed to icreasig college completio ad reducig performace gaps. If stakeholder agedas ca reflect real ad curret treds i the colleges ad ca be aliged with the colleges ow agedas, the chaces of achievig effective policy reform are higher. To that ed, we call attetio to two mechaisms, highlighted i the diagram o p. ii, for brigig iteral ad exteral stakeholders together i the pursuit of studet success. 6 s should publicly report milestoe data Milestoe attaimet, by race/ethicity, should become a feature of the extesive CCC public accoutability system, called Accoutability Reportig for Commuity s (ARCC). This would iform state ad local stakeholder groups, as well as policymakers, of the performace of colleges i helpig studets make progress ad complete academic programs, ad could help focus policy agedas o those areas of greatest systemwide challege. 7 s should idetify commo policy barriers Whe colleges come together to share effective practices, as we recommed they do, they should idetify system ad state policies that are impedig their best efforts to help studets succeed. For example, a college may wat to assess studets a small fee for excessive course droppig or late registratio - two patters show to reduce the likelihood of success - but are preveted from doig so by statute. Or a college may wat to implemet a itesive studet support program but may be preveted from doig so by the fifty percet law that caps expeditures o studet support services. If, through these data-itesive efforts, faculty ad staff come to see first had that policy ca ehace the good work they are doig to help studets succeed, Califoria stads a better chace of joiig leadig states i implemetig the kids of iovative policy reforms that ca raise college completio. We cout ourselves amog the may who believe that commuity colleges are iadequately fuded for the diverse ad vital missios they are expected to fulfill. But we also believe it is importat, ad possible, to achieve better outcomes from the resources that are available. Better use of data to iform chages i practice ad policy across the commuity college system ca help prevet serious erosio i educatio levels ad the resultig adverse impact o the workforce, the tax base, ad the quality of life i Califoria. It carries a price tag but ot a prohibitive oe. Curret fiscal problems ad iadequate preparatio of icomig college studets are huge challeges but should ot stall efforts to address the sigificat problems at had. Commuity college studets are Califoria s future workforce ad we must prepare them or face a ueviable future. The colleges are committed to icreasig studet success but their efforts will be more effective if guided by the systematic data-drive decisio makig that we have outlied i this report. Such a culture of cotiuous improvemet ca spur chages to practices ad policies that, i combiatio, ca icrease college completio ad brighte future prospects for Califoria. 14 istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy at califoria state uiversit y, sacrameto

19 Notes 1 Johso, H. & Segupta, R. (2009). Closig the Gap: Meetig Califoria s Need for Graduates. Sa Fracisco: Public Policy Istitute of Califoria. 2 The Workforce Alliace (2009). Califoria s Forgotte Middle-Skill Jobs: Meetig the Demads of a 21st Cetury Ecoomy. Washigto, D.C: Author. 3 Offestei, J. & Shulock, N. (2009). Techical Difficulties: Meetig Califoria s Workforce Needs i Sciece, Techology, Egieerig, ad Math (STEM) Fields. Sacrameto, CA: Istitute for Higher Educatio Leadership & Policy. 4 Hargreaves, R., Cherer, D., O Neil, E., Solomo, K., & Semerdjia, J. (2007). Closig the Health Workforce Gap i Califoria: The Educatio Imperative. Sa Fracisco: Health Workforce Solutios. 5 While it is commo to refer to the gap betwee projectios of job opeigs ad availability of qualified workers as shortages, actual shortages will ot exist. If the state fails to produce a workforce with the qualificatios to fill the kids of jobs that the state is otherwise o track to produce, employers will create those jobs i other states or coutries that have a more educated workforce. I aother recet report, PPIC cocluded that Califoria will ot be able to import eough qualified workers to compesate for uder-productio of college graduates, due to the icreasig competitio for those workers i other states ad coutries (Reed, D. [2008]. Califoria s Future Workforce: Will there be Eough Graduates? Sa Fracisco: Public Policy Istitute of Califoria). 6 Bowe, W.G., Chigos, M.M., & McPherso, M.S. (2009). Gettig to the Fiish Lie: Completig at America s Public Uiversities. Priceto, NJ: Priceto Uiversity Press. 7 Caroy, M. (2010). Califoria s Impedig Graduate Crisis ad What Needs to Be Doe About It. Staford, CA: PACE. 8 Califoria Departmet of Fiace (2007, July). Race/Ethic Populatio with Age ad Sex Detail, Sacrameto, CA: Author. 9 Calculated usig data from the America Commuity Survey, year estimates. 10 For more iformatio o the effort ad the states ivolved, see The Califoria State Uiversity is a participat. For more iformatio see 12 Moore, C. & Shulock, N. (2009). The Grades are I Sacrameto, CA: Istitute for Higher Educatio Leadership & Policy. 13 Kurlaeder, M. (2006). Choosig commuity college: Factors affectig Latio college choice. New Directios for Commuity s, 133, Cohort data trackig idetifies a group of studets who eroll or begi a program at the same time ad tracks their progress over time. This is distict from, ad preferable to, trackig aual outcomes for studets who are at differet stages of their academic careers because it facilitates aalysis of the impact of differet programs, itervetios, ad policies. 15 Offestei, J., Moore, C., & Shulock, N. (2010). Advacig by Degrees: A Framework for Icreasig Completio. Sacrameto, CA: Istitute for Higher Educatio Leadership & Policy; Moore, C., Shulock, N., & Offestei, J. (2009). Steps to Success: Aalyzig Milestoe Achievemet to Improve Commuity Studet Outcomes. Sacrameto, CA: Istitute for Higher Educatio Leadership & Policy. 16 Adelma, C. Proposed amedmet for the Studet-Right-to-Kow ad Campus Security Act of 1990 (P.L ) to produce a full ad hoest accout of college completio rates. Obtaied through persoal commuicatio o Jue 2, Secod term retetio was measured fall-to-sprig for studets begiig i Fall 2003 ad sprig-to-fall for studets begiig i Sprig Likewise, oe-year retetio was measured either fall-to-fall or sprig-tosprig depedig o the studet s iitial term. 18 Hor, L. & Lew, S. (2007). Califoria Commuity Trasfer Rates: Who is Couted Makes a Differece. Berkeley, CA: MPR Associates, Ic. 19 Most commuity colleges use the semester caledar. For the few usig a quarter caledar, we coverted quarter credits to semester credits before calculatig ay milestoes ivolvig credit couts. 20 For example, see Marcotte, D.E. (2006). The Earigs Effect of Educatio for Commuity s. Baltimore, MD: Uiversity of Marylad. 21 Completig a trasfer curriculum was defied as 60 trasferable credits, icludig at least oe course i math ad oe i Eglish. This measure is oly a proxy for completig a trasfer curriculum, ad is likely a overestimate. To be fully eligible for trasfer to a public uiversity at the upper divisio level, studets must complete a set of geeral educatio courses ad lower-divisio prerequisite courses required for admissio to a particular program. The variatio i curricula across the commuity colleges, the lack of commo course umberig, ad the variatio i courses required for admissio across the uiversities makes it impossible to measure the percet of studets who actually completed a full trasfer curriculum. 22 Studets ca be double-couted i the certificate, degree ad trasfer measures. For example, a studet may have completed both a degree ad trasferred. 23 Accordig to data from the Califoria Postsecodary Educatio Commissio, i fall 2008 oly 3.4% of trasfers from CCC to UC ad 5.8% of trasfers from CCC to CSU were freshme or sophomores. 24 I the Natioal Studet Clearighouse, some of the for-profit istitutios use oe cetral locatio to idicate a studet erolled i oe of its istitutios, makig it difficult to determie the locatio of the specific campus that a studet atteded. As a cosequece, we show all trasfers to the for-profit sector combied, without distiguishig betwee i-state ad out-of-state, but it s likely that most of those studets erolled i for-profit colleges withi Califoria. 25 Data provided by the MIS uit of the CCC Chacellor s Office. 26 I , early 20,000 studets i the for-profit sector received Cal Grat awards, accoutig for 7% of all recipiets (Califoria Studet Aid Commissio [2009] Cal-Grat Program Recipiets. Sacrameto, CA: Author). Sixty percet of ew awards uder the Competitive Cal Grat A program wet to studets i for-profit colleges (Califoria Studet Aid Commissio [2009]. Facts at Your Figertips : Cal Grat Competitive Program. Sacrameto, CA: Author). 27 For example, the atioal graduatio rate of Uiversity of Phoeix is widely reported at 16%, based o the six-year rate as defied by the federal govermet for first-time, full-time freshme ( com/2007/02/11/educatio/11phoeix.html). The Califoria Postsecodary Educatio Commissio shows that rate for Uiversity of Phoeix campuses i this state as less tha 5% ( GradRatesDetail.asp?ID=G0021A&Year=2001). Eve the istitutio s ow D i v ided W e Fail O c to b er

20 Notes method of calculatig a six-year graduatio rate for studets seekig a bachelor s degree results i a rate of 36%, with o iformatio provided about how that rate is calculated (Uiversity of Phoeix [2009] Aual Academic Report. Phoeix, AZ: Author). 28 For example, see recet articles o Cogressmembers cocers ad their directio to the Govermet Accoutability Office (GAO) to coduct a review of the for-profit higher educatio sector at article/new-grillig-of-for-profits /66020/?sid=at&utm_source=at&utm_ medium=e ad forprofit. 29 Adelma, C. (2005). Movig Ito Tow ad Movig O the Commuity i the Lives of Traditioal-Age Studets. Washigto, DC: Natioal Ceter for Educatio Statistics. 30 UCLA Istitute for Democracy, Educatio, ad Access ad Uiversity of Califoria All Campus Cosortium o Research for Diversity (2007). Califoria Educatioal Opportuity Report Los Ageles, CA: Author. 31 See, for example, Califoria Commuity s Chacellor s Office (2003). The Real Cost Project Prelimiary Report. Sacrameto, CA: Author. 32 While most colleges ow receive equal fudig per studet as a result of recet legislatio, there are 3 districts that receive somewhat lower fudig ( basic aid districts) ad 7 others that receive somewhat more tha the stadard $4,565 per FTES. 33 Size ad demographic compositio are oly two characteristics o which to base similarity across colleges, ad there are other ways these colleges could be differet from each other (e.g., while academic preparatio ad socioecoomic status are strogly related to race/ ethicity, the icome or level of preparatio of studets could still vary across colleges with similar racial/ethic compositio). To idetify truly high-performig colleges i terms of the success rates of URM studets, other factors would have to be cosidered, somethig that is best doe by the CCC system as part of efforts to idetify ad share effective practices. 34 Outcomes of studets attedig more tha oe CCC were attributed to the college where they iitially erolled. 35 Moore, C. & Shulock, N. (2009). Studet Progress toward Degree Completio: Lessos from the Research Literature. Sacrameto, CA: Istitute for Higher Educatio Leadership & Policy. istit ute for higher educatio leadership & policy IHELP thaks the followig sposors for their support of this research ad report. The Istitute for Higher Educatio Leadership & Policy seeks to ehace leadership ad policy for higher educatio i Califoria ad the atio by producig research ad services for policymakers, practitioers, ad educators. Istitute for Higher Educatio Leadership & Policy 6000 J Street, Tahoe Hall 3063 Sacrameto, CA T (916) F (916)