Session 18, Tools for Evaluating Insurance Portfolio Investment Performance. Moderator: Peter C. Miller, FSA. Presenter: David L.

Transcription

1 Session 18, Tools for Evaluating Insurance Portfolio Investment Performance Moderator: Peter C. Miller, FSA Presenter: David L. Braun, FSA

2 Society of Actuaries 2015 Investment Symposium Tools for Evaluating Insurance Portfolio Investment Performance 26 March 2015 For institutional investor use only

3 Disclosures This material is to be used for one-on-one separate account presentations to institutional investors only and not for any other purpose. Pacific Investment Management Company LLC, 650 Newport Center Drive, Newport Beach, CA 92660, pg 1

4 Biographical information David L. Braun, CFA, FSA, FRM Mr. Braun is an executive vice president in the New York office and head of the U.S. financial institutions portfolio management team. He oversees management of fixed income investment portfolios for both affiliated and non-affiliated bank and insurance clients. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2009, he was a derivatives portfolio manager and chief risk officer at Hartford Investment Management Co., a division of The Hartford. Mr. Braun has over 21 years of investment, actuarial and risk management experience. He holds an undergraduate degree in mathematics from the University of Connecticut. He is also a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries and a certified Financial Risk Manager. Peter Miller, CFA, FSA Mr. Miller is a senior vice president in the New York office and an account manager focusing on insurance clients. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2010, he was with The Hartford for nine years, working in a variety of actuarial and investment roles including asset-liability management, portfolio management, and variable annuity hedging. He has 13 years of investment experience and holds an undergraduate degree in actuarial science from the University of Nebraska. He is also a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries (FSA). pg 2

5 How do investors measure success? Typical approaches include: Total return Absolute returns Returns relative to a target or benchmark Accounting return Book Income vs. Target Book Yield vs. Target New money rate vs. product pricing rate Volatility is still a widely-used risk measure Other data points such as quality, default experience, and tracking error are often used as supplemental risk measures However, insurance portfolios are anything but typical Ins_asset_mgmt pg 3

6 Management of insurance constraints Insurance companies face multiple constraints Regulatory investment constraints of state laws Accounting constraints Management of tax exempt income Income budgets Capital gain/loss management Risk based capital considerations Credit thresholds Standard market benchmarks do not accurately represent insurance liabilities Ins_asset_mgmt pg 4

7 Develop an appropriate benchmark to improve risk and business discipline Objective: A well defined benchmark and guidelines are the primary tool in monitoring risk, performance and ALM Risk management: The benchmark reflects the company s overall risk appetite and sets a neutral risk setting for the investment portfolio Performance measurement: An objective return level against which your portfolio manager can be measured ALM: A representative benchmark portfolio of securities with similar cashflow and risk characteristics of the liabilities (e.g., duration, yield requirement, convexity, etc.) The finer points: Strike a reasonable balance between yield and total return Avoid inappropriate sectors relative to the liability (e.g., MBS) One size does not fit all (e.g., risk tolerances vary) Should be straight forward, easy to implement, easy to adjust Bottom Line: don t let perfect be the enemy of good custom benchmarks can be helpful in a number of ways Refer to Appendix for additional investment strategy and risk information. pg 5

8 What is the right way to manage an insurance portfolio? Spectrum of approaches 100% ACCOUNTING FOCUSED 100% CAPITAL MARKET FOCUSED Objectives / characteristics Generate stable accounting income that exceeds income assumed in product pricing Low turnover is typical (some call it buy-and-hold ) Performance measure = income vs. target Objectives / characteristics Generate excess risk-adjusted total return Portfolio is rebalanced to always reflect your current forward looking view of risk/return View $1 of price return the same as $1 of income, opening the investment universe Performance measure = excess total return vs. a marketbased benchmark Rationale Investors in our company judge us on our current financial statement performance so that is our focus. I get one shot to price my liabilities and this is the investment return I require to make my profit. I m not going to let speculative trading on the investment side ruin my profitability. Rationale The capital markets are fluid and conditions can change materially over time, as such you must actively manage your portfolio and look for return from multiple sources in order to achieve success over the long run. The accounting depiction of risk (capital) and reward (book income) are manufactured measures which do not represent true risk and reward. Right answer is often somewhere in the middle and highly dependent on the client s situation & book of business. Sample for illustrative purposes only. Refer to Appendix for additional investment strategy information. PIMCO_Insurance_mandates pg 6

9 Book yield managed accounts require book yield reporting Bringing transparency to how we look to meet each portfolio s objective OBJECTIVE SCALE 100% BOOK YIELD 100% TOTAL RETURN The objective scale provides a simple framework to gauge each portfolio Book yield is an ideal measure of income performance because: Book yield is a very close approximation to investment income; It is a straightforward metric visible to PM s and the client see every day; It is not sensitive to changes in the size of the portfolio Excess return Gain/loss/risk Book yield oriented clients will have difficulty in assessing the manager s performance The book yield attribution model adds a third dimension to the conversation It improves the clients ability to assess our performance Adds to our credibility as a manager of insurance assets Book yield A falling or sustained low rate environment adds additional challenge to managing income since the bias is lower The roll-off of principal and reinvestment create a constant headwind Active repositioning is discouraged by the inability to increase book yield Refer to Appendix for additional investment strategy information. pg 7

10 Book yield attribution model It s an accounting exercise The model seeks to explain the change in book yield for a given period The model has three components: 1. Beginning and ending book value and book yield from the accounting source (the facts) 2. The attribution of the change in the period due to reinvestment, buys, sells, change in cash, etc 3. A similar attribution on a passive basis which removes the active trades and assumes index type reinvestment The passive portion is not seeking to be a true book yield benchmark, but is intended to normalize the change against external factors beyond our control, e.g., new money flows or maturities/pay-downs The model components are explained below: The net purpose of the model is to add transparency to the process and show the role of active management Sample for illustrative purposes only. Refer to Appendix for additional investment strategy information. pg 8

11 Analysis of book yield changes Sample Insurance Investment Grade Credit portfolio* Acct(s) Account name Book value Book yield 9999 Sub portfolio 1 1,560,372, % 9999 Sub portfolio 2 251,840, % 9999 Sub portfolio 3 238,077, % Total 2,050,289, % Attribution of actual Description Quantity Book yield Contribution (bps) Begin period 1,825,782, % Buy 279,768, % 9.7 Sell -18,400, % -1.2 Change in cash 21,590, % -3.4 Paydown principal -46,962, % -0.5 Maturity payment -26,300, % 0.6 Call -8,960, % -0.1 Asset deposit 33,917, % -0.2 Amortization/accretion -1,628, % 0.2 BY adjustments - CPR 0.0 Residual -8,518, Cash deposit (Capital Change) 181,812,986 Cash withdrawal (Capital Change) -13,800,000 Interest payment 27,410,903 Total 4.5 Book yield attribution provides transparency to the results from an accounting perspective The passive estimate provides an estimate which is normalized for external factors such as new money and maturity payments Passive estimate Description Actual contribution (bps) Bogie YTW Passive reinvestment (bps) Net (bps) Begin period Buy Sell Change in cash Paydown principal % Maturity payment % Call % Asset deposit Amortization/accretion BY adjustments - CPR Residual Cash deposit (Capital Change) 2.27% Cash withdrawal (Capital Change) Interest payment 2.46% Total Book yield increased by 4.5 bps to 2.95%; this was driven mainly by the net addition of spread product over the period There were several large inflows into the portfolio during the period; this negatively impacted yield in the passive estimate by 6.3 bps Higher investment rates over the period helped to diminish the degradation seen in the prior periods from reinvestment The net result is the portfolio outperformed the passive estimate by over 12 bps * The portfolio was chosen to illustrate all factors considered when calculating the attribution associated with book yield accounting. The Passive Estimate model utilizes the same portfolio but eliminates any actively managed positioning and instead reinvests capital into the underlying index. The example is intended to illustrate the variances associated with both active and passive management of an overall mandate. No representation is being made that any existing or proposed account will have similar results. The example shown is before any management fees. Past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future results. The representative account information presented is provided as supplemental information to the PIMCO Insurance Core Income Constrained Composite performance presentation included in the Appendix. Hypothetical example for illustrative purposes only Refer to Appendix for additional investment strategy and risk information. 6693_Insurance_ pg 9

12 Portfolio reporting: Market outlook, risk analysis, and performance Mosaic approach to communicating to stakeholders Market outlook Forward looking outlook of global economy, technical flows in capital markets, and relative value differentials Reconcile with how portfolios are positioned Risk analysis Detailed risk attribution where is duration risk coming from? Where is credit risk coming from? Changes what were they, and why? Reconcile to market outlook. Performance measurement/attribution Did we generate total return alpha? Did we generate book yield (income) alpha? Attribution of both Everything should hold together necessary tradeoffs are illuminated for key stakeholders highlights potential overreach for yield Ins_asset_mgmt pg 10

13 Summary Insurance portfolios have a number of unique considerations with respect to performance and risk measurement Traditional tools, even if imperfect, can still be helpful in illuminating risks and opportunities Non-traditional tools also exist that address the unique needs of insurance asset managers Insurance portfolio management is inherently complex it cannot be boiled down into a single metric or approach a mosaic approach is recommended Further reading Contact information Peter Miller David Braun Phone: (212) Phone: (212) peter.miller@pimco.com david.braun@pimco.com Refer to Appendix for additional investment strategy and risk information. Ins_asset_mgmt pg 11

14 Appendix Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. FORECAST Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be interpreted as investment advice, as an offer or solicitation, nor as the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Forecasts and estimates have certain inherent limitations, and unlike an actual performance record, do not reflect actual trading, liquidity constraints, fees, and/or other costs. In addition, references to future results should not be construed as an estimate or promise of results that a client portfolio may achieve. HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE Hypothetical and simulated examples have many inherent limitations and are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. There are frequently sharp differences between simulated results and the actual results. There are numerous factors related to the markets in general or the implementation of any specific investment strategy, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of simulated results and all of which can adversely affect actual results. No guarantee is being made that the stated results will be achieved. INVESTMENT STRATEGY There is no guarantee that these investment strategies will work under all market conditions or are suitable for all investors and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for a longterm especially during periods of downturn in the market. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those shown. OUTLOOK Statements concerning financial market trends or portfolio strategies are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. There is no guarantee that these investment strategies will work under all market conditions, and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long-term, especially during periods of downturn in the market. Outlook and strategies are subject to change without notice. RISK Investing in the bond market is subject to risks, including market, interest rate, issuer, credit, inflation risk, and liquidity risk. The value of most bonds and bond strategies are impacted by changes in interest rates. Bonds and bond strategies with longer durations tend to be more sensitive and volatile than those with shorter durations; bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise, and the current low interest rate environment increases this risk. Current reductions in bond counterparty capacity may contribute to decreased market liquidity and increased price volatility. Bond investments may be worth more or less than the original cost when redeemed. Investing in foreign-denominated and/or -domiciled securities may involve heightened risk due to currency fluctuations, and economic and political risks, which may be enhanced in emerging markets. Sovereign securities are generally backed by the issuing government. Obligations of U.S. government agencies and authorities are supported by varying degrees, but are generally not backed by the full faith of the U.S. government. Portfolios that invest in such securities are not guaranteed and will fluctuate in value. High yield, lower-rated securities involve greater risk than higher-rated securities; portfolios that invest in them may be subject to greater levels of credit and liquidity risk than portfolios that do not. Mortgage- and asset-backed securities may be sensitive to changes in interest rates, subject to early repayment risk, and while generally supported by a government, government-agency or private guarantor, there is no assurance that the guarantor will meet its obligations. Derivatives may involve certain costs and risks, such as liquidity, interest rate, market, credit, management and the risk that a position could not be closed when most advantageous. Investing in derivatives could lose more than the amount invested. Investors should consult their investment professional prior to making an investment decision.. This material contains the current opinions of the manager and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission. PIMCO is a trademark or registered trademark of Allianz Asset Management of America L.P. in the United States and throughout the world. THE NEW NEUTRAL and YOUR GLOBAL INVESTMENT AUTHORITY are trademarks or registered trademarks of Pacific Investment Management Company LLC in the United States and throughout the world. Pacific Investment Management Company LLC, 650 Newport Center Drive, Newport Beach, CA 92660, , PIMCO.!mk_Alpha_Partners_TR_Core&Core+_Comp_Appendix P409 pg 12