Analyzing Energy Use with Decomposition Methods

Transcription

1 nalyzng nergy Use wh Decomposon Mehods eve HNN nergy Technology Polcy Dvson nergy Tranng Week Pars 1 h prl 213 OCD/ 213

2 Dscusson nergy consumpon and energy effcency? How can energy consumpon be dsaggregaed? Caegorzaon of energy consumpon across end-use secors? OCD/ 213

3 Goal of hs ranng sesson provde ools and bes pracces n decomposon analyss o rapdly and effcenly adop decomposon mehods on naonal levels OCD/ 213

4 Purpose of decomposon Quanfy relave conrbuons of he pre-defned facors o he change n energy consumpon Track down he orgn n energy consumpon varaons Measure effecveness of energy polcy and echnology OCD/ 213

5 Dsaggregaon of energy consumpon The changes n energy use whn a secor are separaed n varous componens: n n ( ) subsecor or end-uses whn a gven secor ggregae acvy value-added for manufacurng ndusry and servces; populaon n he household secor; or as passenger-klomeres and onne-klomeres respecvely for he passenger and fregh ranspor secors ecoral srucure mx of acves whn a secor and furher dvdes acvy no ndusry subsecors measures of resdenal end-use acvy or ransporaon modes nergy nensy energy use per un of acvy OCD/ 213

6 OCD/ 213

7 Decomposon componens cvy effec The acvy effec can be calculaed as he relave mpac on energy use ha would have occurred n year f he srucure and energy nenses for a secor had remaned fxed a her base year values (=) whle aggregae acvy had followed s acual developmen. rucure effec The srucure effec s deermned by makng he calculaon usng consan aggregae acvy and energy nenses bu varyng he secoral srucure. nensy effec The nensy effec s calculaed by assumng ha he secoral srucure and aggregae acvy for a secor had remaned fxed a he base year values whle energy nenses had followed her acual developmen. OCD/ 213

8 Dscusson of resuls: Passenger Transpor OCD/ 213

9 Dscusson of resuls: ervce secor OCD/ 213

10 OCD/ 213 Mahemacal dervaon Goal: decompose energy consumpon so ha ε s mnmal Change n energy consumpon: Forunaely we do no need o solve hs equaon bu varous mehods have been developed o do so.... ln 1 d d d d d d

11 Overvew of exsng mehods ε s a resdual whose magnude depends on he decomposon mehod Common mehods Laspeyres mehod Paasche ndex mple average dvsa mehod (arhmec mean or Törnqvs formulaon) Fscher deal Paramerc Dvsa Mehod (PMD ) and (PMD ) Log Mean Dvsa (LMD ) and (LMD ) OCD/ 213

12 valuaon of exsng mehods ndex Perfec decomposon Tme reversble ubsecors addve asy o undersand Paasche no no Y very easy mple Laspeyres no no Y very easy Refned Laspeyres Y no Y moderaely Fscher deal Y Y No moderaely mple average/ arhmec mean/ dvsa (Törnqvs) no Y No moderaely djused PMD and no Y Y dffcul LMD Y Y Y moderaely LMD Y Y no moderaely Laspeyres and LMD are he preferred mehods Laspeyres for s ease of undersandng especally o non-expers bu he exsence of an neracon erm s a drawback LMD for s heorecal soundness OCD/ 213

13 OCD/ easy o communcae - neracon erm ddve Mulplcave cvy ffec rucural ffec nensy ffec Laspeyres

14 OCD/ 213 LMD + no neracon erm - more dffcul o communcae o non-expers - Mehod no defned for zeros or negave numbers n daa ddve Mulplcave cvy ffec rucure ffec nensy ffec L ln ) ( L L ln ) ( ) ( exp b a and b wh a b a b a b a L ln ln ) ( L ln ) ( L ln ) ( L L ln ) ( ) ( exp T L L ln ) ( ) ( exp

15 xercse sesson: end-use Perform complee decomposon usng Laspeyres and LMD Calculae he acvy srucure and nensy effec of he gven daase for he manufacurng secor Compare resuls from LMD and Laspeyres OCD/ 213

16 Fxed vs. rollng base year decomposon For every mehod wo decomposon schemes exs: Fxed base year or non-chaned decomposon change n energy consumpon beween base year and fnal year T + daa for all nermedae years no requred Rollng base year or chaned decomposon yearly change n energy consumpon beween base year and 1 year 1 and 2 year T-1 and T and fnally channg of resuls + more precse OCD/ 213

17 Commody correcon n he ndusral secor he bes measure of acvy s physcal uns of producon (e.g. ones of pulp lers of beer). These uns are dffcul o compare bu hey are a beer ndcaor of acvy No consan relaon beween value added (GDP) and physcal uns exs as changes n prce nfluence he relaonshp. The acvy can be correced as follows: P P: GDP oupu; V: physcal un; :subsecor; : curren year; : base year collecs commody daa for cemen seel pulp and paper currenly: no correcon performed bu recommended V V * OCD/ 213

18 Weaher correcon The mpac of weaher should be consdered n household heang and coolng: Correcon for weaher for space heang energy Correcon for weaher for space coolng Correcon for weaher σ hea/cool heang/coolng elascy for adjusng heang requremens pacehea ng 1 hea (1 hea ) pacecool ng (1 ) τ hea / cool heang/coolng ndex of varance from average requremens by year (e.g. heang/coolng degree days n curren year compared o average from 3 pas years) H C W 1 cool cool H C assumpons only heang consdered σ hea assumed 1 (probably around.75) HDD 3 pas years =27 (global average) OCD/ 213

19 Generaon effcency Fossl fuels (coal gas ol) Man acvy producer elecrcy plans and man acvy producer CHP plans ffcency : energy oupu energy npu nergy npu: ne calorfc values (esmaed usng he lower heang value LHV) nergy oupu: gross producon of elecrcy and hea. auxlary elecrcy consumpon and losses n ransformers are ncluded OCD/ 213

20 Generaon effcency: correcon for CHP ffcency he exracon of hea reduces he elecrc effcency bu ncreases he overall (elecrcal and hermal) effcency Formula: P H * s P: elecrcy producon from publc elecrcy plans and publc CHP plans H: hea oupu from publc CHP plans s: correcon facor beween hea and elecrcy defned as he reducon n elecrcy per un of hea exraced. = (Phylpsen 1998) : fuel npu for publc elecrcy plans and publc CHP plans OCD/ 213

21 xercse: generaon effcency Calculae he energy effcences for 4 seleced counres Compare he average effcences beween and Deermne he poenal fuel savngs OCD/ 213

22 Take-away messages Decomposon analyss s essenal o analyze energy effcency n end-use secors nergy consumpon can be decomposed n cvy () rucure () and nensy () n ( ) LMD preferred mehod Fxed base-year vs. rollng base year (dependng on avalable daa) Correcon for coolng should be consdered n warm regons OCD/ 213

23 References nergy Use n he New Mllennum 27 Worldwde Trends n nergy Use and ffcency 28 coreboard BR nd-use energy nensy n he usralan economy 21 M.K. Jaccard and ssocaes mprovemen of he O/DPD decomposon mehodology 25 B.W. ng Decomposon analyss for polcymakers n energy: whch s he preferred mehod? 23 B.W. ng and F.L. Lu new energy decomposon mehod: perfec n decomposon and conssen n aggregaon 2 G.J.M. Phylpsen e al. (1998) Benchmarkng he nergy ffcency of he Duch nergy- nensve ndusry prelmnary assessmen of he effec on energy consumpon and CO2 mssons OCD/ 213

24 Dscusson of resuls: Manufacurng OCD/ 213

25 Dscusson of resuls: Household heang OCD/ 213