Executive Summary. Purpose of the Long Term Financial Plan. General assumptions. Objectives of Long Term Financial Plan. Assumptions and forecasts

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2 Contents Executive Summary... 1 Purpose of Long Term Financial Plan... 1 Objectives of Long Term Financial Plan... 1 Assumptions and forecasts... 1 General assumptions... 1 Revenue Forecasts... 3 Rates and annual charges... 3 Rating policy... 3 Domestic waste management charge... 3 Fees, Charges and Other Income... 4 Statutory charges and user fees and charges... 4 Interest on investments... 4 Grants and subsidies... 4 Other revenue... 4 Net gain from disposal of assets... 4 Borrowings... 4 Expenditure Forecasts... 5 Employee costs... 5 Materials, contracts and other operating costs... 5 Depreciation... 5 Capital expenditure and sales... 5 Major capital works... 5 Sensitivity Analysis... 6 Interest on investments... 6 Rate pegging... 6 Inflation... 6 Employee costs... 6 Population growth... 6 Grants... 6 Risk Assessment Year Financial Plan Income statement... 7 Balance sheet... 8 Cash flow statement... 9 Key performance indicators... 10

3 Executive Summary Purpose of the Long Term Financial Plan The Long Term Financial Plan (LTFP) is used to ensure that Council has a financially sustainable long term vision for the municipality. This document will guide the future strategies and actions of the council to ensure it continues to operate in a sustainable manner. Objectives of Long Term Financial Plan The LTFP has the objective over the next ten years to:- 1. Maintain a good cash position 2. Maintain the existing service levels while also introducing efficiencies 3. Maintain a balanced annual budget 4. Maintain council s asset base at a satisfactory level Assumptions and forecasts The budget for the 2013/14 year is used as the base year when developing the long term financial plan. A number of assumptions have been used to forecast both income and expenditure over the ten year plan. General assumptions Population The most recent Census (2011) indicates that there were 19,986 people living in the Kiama Local Area (Australian Bureau of Statistics). Population projections indicate that the population of Kiama in 2016 it will be 21,100, and the projections for 2021 are 22,100 persons (NSW Department of Planning). Although there has been a constant increase in numbers, the percentage of population growth has declined over the last 20 years. Comparing the percentage of change in population between Kiama, the Illawarra, and New South Wales, Kiama has had the largest growth in population over the 10 year period between 1991 and However the percentage change dropped between and , whereas figures from the Illawarra and NSW show a stabilisation of growth rates. In 2011 there were 5,516 older persons (aged 60 plus) living in the Kiama LGA (Australian Bureau of Statistics). This makes up 27.6% of the total population. There are some likely implications of the ageing population: Inflation A consumer price index forecast of 2.5% has been used in the preparation of the Long Term Financial Plan. The following assumptions and forecasts have also been used in the Long Term Financial Plan to provide a more accurate reflection of cost movements. The overload on existing support services and whether these support services can accommodate such a growing need; There will be higher levels of people suffering from a disability or chronic illness due to the increasing life expectancy age. This will lead to higher levels of people needing support services; Long Term Financial Plan

4 Pressure on Government resources, aged pensions and other aged services; Like other coastal areas the Kiama LGA attracts retirees. As such, the pressures will be greater in Kiama. The ageing population in Kiama has implications in terms of housing supply, affordability and employment. Seasonal Variation in Population It should also be noted that tourism plays a huge role in creating temporary populations in the Kiama Local Government Area. The area experiences significant seasonal growth in temporary populations due to the influx of holiday makers and day trippers, especially during the peak summer and school holiday periods. In 2010/11 the Kiama LGA attracted an estimated 250,000 domestic visitors who stayed one or more nights in Kiama, 623,000 day trippers and 30,000 international visitors (ref: Tourism Research Australia Local Area Profile, YE June 2011 based on a 5 year rolling average). These fluctuations can have profound implications for the demand on local infrastructure and services. If provisions are not made for this influx of visitors then stress and strains are likely to occur when capacity is stretched. Importantly, because this temporary, nonresidential population is not counted at Census, Council does not receive comparable Financial Assistance Grants to meet the needs for infrastructure and services of peak holiday and weekend populations. 2 Long Term Financial Plan

5 Revenue Forecasts Rates and Annual Charges Rating policy: Council s rating policy is structured on a mixture of an ad valorem rate on the land value and a base rate. Council has three rating categories being:- Residential Farmland Business The rating structure is reviewed annually to ensure the distribution on an equitable basis amongst ratepayers. Domestic waste management charge: All residential properties incur a domestic waste management charge. Council also provides a rural collection service at a cost to the ratepayer. The Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water charges Council a Waste Levy for all waste through the Minnamurra Waste Depot. The increased tipping fees and Section 88 Waste Levy have been factored into the Domestic Waste charge. Council was granted a special rate variation of 6.5% (including rate pegging increase) in the years 2009/10 and 2010/11 to assist with funding costs associated with asset renewals. Both these special variations are due to expire in 2013/14 and 2014/15 respectively. IPART has approved that Council retain both of these special rate variations in Council s rating base. Using current population information available Council will be allowing for a 0.05% growth in the rating base for each year in the two models. Rates & Charges 2013/ / / /17 Thereafter Rates growth 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% Rate increase 3.4% 3% 3% 3% 3% General rates 3.4% 3.05% 3.05% 3.05% 3.05% Domestic Waste Charge 8.21% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% Long Term Financial Plan

6 Fees, charges and other income Statutory charges and user fees and charges: These services will continue to be provided on the same pricing structure. In areas where there is an opportunity to increase fees and charges a CPI rate will be applied. Fees for commercial activities will be based on CPI increases and market forces. Interest on investments: All investments will be made in accordance with the Minister s Investment Order and Council s Investment Policy. Investment returns have been based on a rate of 4.5%. Movements in cash reserves have also been factored into the forecast. Grants and subsidies: It is assumed all recurrent grant funds will be maintained at current levels with CPI adjustments. Net gain from disposal of assets: Sales of motor vehicles and plant have been based on current trends and predicted replacement dates. Council has factored land development sales into years 2013/14 for the final stage of Elambra Estate in Gerringong and 2017/18 and 2018/19 for the proposed development of Spring Creek in Kiama. Borrowings: A new borrowing factored into the LTFP, is a $2.05M loan to fund infrastructure works identified in the Asset Management Plan. Council has applied for a 3% interest subsidy through the Division of Local Government to assist with these works. A new borrowing of $9M is also factored into the LTFP to construct the Spring Creek land subdivision in 2016/17 with sales in the following two years repaying the loan in full. Current borrowings consisting of various loans totalling $4.6M as at 30 June 2012 are scheduled to be fully repaid by 30 June Other revenues: These services will continue to be provided on the same pricing structure. In areas where there is an opportunity to increase fees and charges a CPI or appropriate commercial rate will be applied. 4 Long Term Financial Plan

7 Expenditure Forecasts Employee costs: Employee costs are subject to annual award increases and annual performance review increases. Staff levels are expected to remain at existing levels. For the year 2013/14 employee costs is predicted to rise by 3.5%. For the years 2014/15 to 2022/23 a CPI factor of 3.0% has been applied. Materials, contracts and other operating costs: The expenditure on materials, contracts and other operating costs have been generally based on CPI increases. Depreciation: Depreciation figures have been based on Council s Asset Management Plans including new assets constructed or acquired during the period of the LTFP. Capital expenditure and sales: Capital expenditure and sales on motor vehicles and plant have been based on current trends and predicted replacement dates. Council s asset management plans have been used to produce capital expenditure programs used in the LTFP. Major capital works Council proposes to develop a subdivision on land held by Council at Spring Creek Kiama (subject to the State Rail quarry closing). The development is planned for the 2016/17 year with the land sales to occur in the 2017/18 and 2018/19. The proposed development has the potential for at least 60 residential blocks. The development costs of approximately $9M will be financed from loan funds with potential land sale figures of $18M. This net return to council will finance infrastructure capital renewal and maintenance. Long Term Financial Plan

8 Sensitivity Analysis The LTFP contains a number of assumptions based on various sources such as legislation, inflation, current service provisions and wage markets. Variations in these assumptions during the life of the plan may have a significant impact on the Council s future financial plans. The LTFP is updated twice each year to ensure the assumptions are continually updated with the latest information available. Interest on investments Council s investment portfolio is subject to movements in interest rates. Investments are placed and managed in accordance with the Council s adopted Investment Policy in compliance with the Local Government Act. Service levels and capital expenditure are impacted by fluctuations in interest rates. Rate pegging Changes in rate pegging will impact revenue forecasts. IPART has released the rate peg for as 3.4%. Sensitivity analysis shows that the rate peg does not have significant impact on the Model, compared to the calculations using the average Local Government Cost Index.. Inflation Changes in inflation will impact both revenue and expenditure. Employee costs Changes in employee costs will impact expenditure. Termination patterns will impact the Employee Leave Entitlements reserve and liability as well as recruitment and training costs. Population growth Kiama s population growth is low in contrast with the NSW state average. The plan is based on 0.5 per cent population growth. Should the population grow faster than this rate both service costs and rating income will be impacted. Grants The LTFP models only include recurring grants and capital grants that have already been awarded. The Council does not have a strong reliance on grants revenue in comparison with other sources of revenue. A number of the grants that are received fund specific programs that may not be offered by the Council if the grants were eliminated. The general purpose component of the Council s Financial Assistance Grant is currently $1.3 million. If this grant was eliminated, the Council would need to consider reducing capital expenditure and service levels. Risk assessment Throughout the development of the LTFP the assumptions underlying the plan are continually tested through a risk assessment process. A conservative approach has been taken in developing the LTFP to ensure chosen options are more likely to succeed and expose the Council to the least amount of risk. 6 Long Term Financial Plan

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