The Future of Energy and Energy Investing
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- Leo Gordon
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1 The Future of Energy and Energy Investing
2 The Energy Landscape 1. Economics, Supply, Demand 2. Recommendations for Creating Change
3 IPCC Report: Warming in climate system is unequivocal. Human influence on climate system is extremely likely Extremely Likely defined as > 95% certain What should UNC do to reduce GHG emissions? The risk of climate change is clear and the risk warrants action. William Colton VP ExxonMobil Recommendation #1: UNC should prioritize climate literacy to educate internal and external stakeholders. Education budget should be increased.
4 A Snapshot of Energy Supply and Demand 84.4% Fossil Fuels % Transport 39.2% Petroleum 44% Waste Heat 23.3% Natural Gas 31.4% Industrial 22.4% Coal 1 8.3% Nuclear 6.7% Renewables 17.8% Commercial 56% Utilized 21.3% Residential
5 United States Energy Sources 1 Affect GHG Emissions from the Source UNC Energy Sources
6 UNC Energy Sources Changing Energy Mix Economics Technology Policy 1 Affect GHG Emissions from the Source
7 Financing- Investment in Renewables The economics are changing, making investing in clean energy more attractive. 1 Affect GHG Emissions from the Source
8 Renewable Energy Sources Total Worldwide Installed Capacity (2010) WIND Growth Rate (Avg. Annual ) 198 GW 27% BIOMASS & BIOFUELS Total Worldwide Installed Capacity (2010) Growth Rate (Avg. Annual ) 11 GW & 107B L 35% SOLAR Total Worldwide Installed Capacity (2010) 40 GW Growth Rate (Avg. Annual ) 82% 1 Affect GHG Emissions from the Source
9 1 Economic Drivers Affect Growth in Renewables Recommendation #2: UNC-CH scientific research should be viewed as valuable contributor to North Carolina s economy. 1 Affect GHG Emissions from the Source
10 Policy: Balancing Supply & Demand Levers Supply Most important driver in growth Key Levers Production Tax Credit (PTC) Investment Tax Credit (ITC) Demand 119 countries have renewable portfolio targets 1% increase = 40,000 wind turbines or 600,000,000 solar modules Key Levers (US) State Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) State/Regional GHG Policies 1 Affect GHG Emissions from the Source
11 US State and Regional GHG Policies Affect Growth of Renewables Recommendation #3a: Stakeholders interested in the growth of renewables should engage policy makers. Utilities/The Military Good Neighbor Act Senators Stein and Brunstetter
12 Making the Case for Renewables-Favorable Policy Demand leads to investment, and investment leads to jobs. + Historically, wind projects provide at least 12% ROE + Solar projects can provide 15% to 20% IRR + NASDAQ Green Energy Stock Index has provided a 12% year-over-year return + Provides a hedge against volatile fossil fuel prices Recommendation #3b: Advocates should link renewables to economic opportunity. Source: Dunlop, John. Wind Power Project Returns What Should Equity Investors Expect? Journal of Structured Finance, 12(1): pp Affect GHG Emissions from the Source
13 Reduce GHG Emissions by Reducing Demand 84.4% Fossil Fuels % Transport 39.2% Petroleum 44% Waste Heat 23.3% Natural Gas 31.4% Industrial 22.4% Coal 1 8.3% Nuclear 6.7% Renewables 17.8% Commercial 56% Utilized 21.3% Residential 2 Affect GHG Emissions by Reducing Demand
14 UNC Emission Sources What gets measured gets managed. 2 Affect GHG Emissions by Reducing Demand
15 UNC Climate Action Progress and Planning UNC total energy bill ~$89 million/yr Since 2009, energy consumption is reduced 30% Saved $22 million total; $1.6 million in FY 2013 Recommendation #4: a. UNC should continue to model climate stewardship. b. UNC stakeholders should recognize rewards of energy efficiency and prioritize energy-saving efforts. 2 Affect GHG Emissions by Reducing Demand
16 Addressing Transportation-Related GHG Emissions Recommendation #5: Additional financial support should be given to sustainability initiatives. Sign the Petition
17 Investment Options 1. Capital I Investments in the Market 2. INVESTMENTS in our Core Mission: Education & Research
18 UNC Advocates for Action UNC Sierra Student Coalition urges divestment from Filthy Fifteen companies that the group calls the worst major U.S. coal mining and coal-fired utility companies and request that the university drop them from its investment portfolios. Last year 77% of the UNC student body voted in support of divestment from coal. UNC s endowment, $2.38 Billion, 30 th largest in the country. Jan. 18, 2013, UNC President Tom Ross tells Duke Energy he wants more clean energy.
19 Responsible Investing, Sustainable Investing, ESG Investing, Mission-Related Investing, or Ethical Investing: Investment strategy that integrates social or environmental criteria into financial analysis and investment decisions. Recommendation #6: UNC should implement a comprehensive approach to sustainable investing.
20 Sustainability Related Education In Class: Outside the Classroom: Conferences, speakers, workshops, Recommendation #7: -More students and community members should take advantage of the educational opportunities offered. -Funding for university Centers and Institutes offering outreach activities should be increased, not cut.
21 UNC Kenan-Flagler Center for Sustainable Enterprise (CSE) UNC Kenan-Flagler #9 Overall and #4 in Course Content UNC Kenan-Flagler #9 Ethics & Corporate Social Responsibility MBA Students Graduating with the Sustainable Enterprise Concentration % MBA Class # Students % % % % 57 #7 for Sustainability Connect via CSE social media: Facebook LinkedIn Blog (visit cse.unc.edu for full list) 82% of the MBA Class of 2013 took at least one sustainable enterprise elective.
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