Worldwide Integrated Collaborative Environments Forecast and 2005 Vendor Shares: No Sign of Global Warming Affecting the ICE Market

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1 Global Headquarters: 5 Speen Street Framingham, MA USA P F MARKET ANALYSIS Worldwide Integrated Collaborative Environments Forecast and 2005 Vendor Shares: No Sign of Global Warming Affecting the ICE Market Mark Levitt IDC OPINION Worldwide revenue generated by sales of integrated collaborative environments (ICEs, aka groupware) grew by 12.3% to reach $2.1 billion in While many vendors experienced slow or negative growth, the top 2 vendors that captured 92% of total market revenues generated double-digit revenue growth in 2005, proving that the mature ICE market was still solid. Looking forward, ICE market success will depend on how well vendors can:! Maintain the loyalties of both IT staff and line-of-business users at existing customers by keeping the ICE fresh with advances in user interfaces and mobility support and with minimal cost and effort for handling upgrades to avoid giving customers excuses to delay upgrades! Attract new customers, such as smaller organizations, by minimizing the efforts needed to manage ICE servers and clients with the help of self-managing server software, managed appliances, and hosted services available for customers! Provide solutions that minimize the effort and customization required to integrate ICE with team workspaces and real-time messaging and conferencing, as well as CRM, ERP, and other business applications, to enable business users to more easily find, access, analyze, and act upon all of the latest and relevant information Filing Information: July 2006, IDC #202617, Volume: 1, Tab: Markets Collaborative Computing: Market Analysis

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3 IN THIS STUDY This IDC study provides a top-down sizing of the ICE market in 2005 and a updated forecast for this market. Forecast revenue data is shown for the total worldwide market and by geographic region. Methodology See the Learn More section for a description of the data collection and analysis methodology employed in this study. ICE Market Definition ICEs provide a framework for electronic collaboration, typically within an organization, based on shared directory and messaging platforms. The core integrated-functionality areas are , group calendaring and scheduling, shared folders/databases, threaded discussions, and custom application development. Administration and customization are generally performed by centralized IT staff. Representative products in this market include HandySoft BizFlow Groupware, IBM Lotus Notes/Domino, Microsoft Exchange/Outlook, and Novell GroupWise. Standalone and unified messaging applications are not included here but are covered in the messaging applications market. SITUATION OVERVIEW ICE Market in 2005 We present here our 2005 estimates of the overall ICE market size in terms of vendor revenue (application license and maintenance revenue) by vendor, region, and operating environment, along with 2003 and 2004 estimates for comparison purposes (see Table 1 and Figures 1 4). Please note that these estimates do not include revenue derived from the sale of other corporate or service provider solutions such as standalone or unified messaging applications IDC #

4 TABLE 1 Worldwide Integrated Collaborative Environments Revenue by Vendor, ($M) Share (%) Growth (%) Microsoft , IBM Novell NEC HandySoft Hitachi Fujitsu Oracle Other Total 1, , , Note: This data does not include revenue for products under $5 million in 2005 worldwide or for licenses sold to service providers for hosted standalone . 2 # IDC

5 FIGURE 1 Worldwide Integrated Collaborative Environments Revenue Share by Region, 2005 Asia/Pacific (16.7%) EMEA (44.1%) Americas (39.2%) Total = $2.108B FIGURE 2 Worldwide Integrated Collaborative Environments Revenue Share by Operating Environment, 2005 Linux/other open source (2.5%) Other multiuser (4.2%) i5 and OS/400 (2.4%) Mainframe (1.6%) Unix (4.6%) Windows 32 and 64 (84.7%) Total = $2.108B 2006 IDC #

6 FIGURE 3 Worldwide Integrated Collaborative Environments Revenue by Vendor and Region, 2005 Microsoft IBM Novell NEC HandySoft Hitachi Fujitsu Oracle Other Americas EMEA Asia/Pacific ($M) Note: This data does not include revenue for products under $5 million in 2005 worldwide or for licenses sold to service providers for hosted standalone . 4 # IDC

7 FIGURE 4 Worldwide Integrated Collaborative Environments Revenue Share by Vendor, Microsoft IBM Novell NEC HandySoft Hitachi Fujitsu Oracle Other (%) Note: This data does not include revenue for products under $5 million in 2005 worldwide or for licenses sold to service providers for hosted standalone IDC #

8 Here is a quick look at the top 3 ICE vendors based on worldwide revenues in 2005:! Microsoft saw both its worldwide revenue and market share rise as a result of the increasing popularity of Microsoft Outlook and the improved positioning of its entire line of desktop and server products as part of a complementary portfolio for information workers.! IBM saw its worldwide revenue rise (even faster than in 2004 ) and its market share drop slightly as a result of a clearer positioning of its Notes/Domino and IBM Workplace solutions as two heads of the same product road map and vision.! Novell saw its worldwide revenue and market share drop as a result of the decline in NetWare, the server platform for most GroupWise installations, and its corporate focus shift to Linux, which has potential but limited traction to date for ICE deployments. FUTURE OUTLOOK Forecast and Assumptions We present here our ICE forecast by region and operating environment as well as our key forecast assumptions (see Tables 2 and 3). 6 # IDC

9 TABLE 2 Worldwide Integrated Collaborative Environments Revenue by Region and Operating Environment, ($M) Share (%) CAGR (%) 2010 Share (%) Geographic region Americas , , , , EMEA , Asia/Pacific Total 2, , , , , , Operating environment Mainframe i5 and OS/ Unix Linux/other open source Other multiuser Windows 32 and 64 1, , , , , , Total 2, , , , , , Growth (%) Note: See Table 3 for key forecast assumptions. TABLE 3 Key Forecast Assumptions for the Worldwide Integrated Collaborative Environments Market, Market Force IDC Assumption Impact Accelerator/ Inhibitor/ Neutral Certainty of Assumption Market 2006 IDC #

10 TABLE 3 Key Forecast Assumptions for the Worldwide Integrated Collaborative Environments Market, Market Force IDC Assumption Impact characteristics Accelerator/ Inhibitor/ Neutral Certainty of Assumption Market substitutes Real-time collaboration tools such as instant messaging and Web conferencing will be used more frequently alongside nonreal-time tools such as and team workspaces. Moderate. While integrated collaborative environments will offer integrated instant messaging and presence, other types of real-time collaboration, including Web, audio, and video conferencing, will be left to standalone or portal solutions. The resulting positive and negative forces on market growth will balance each other. ####$ Installed customer base Most midsize to large organizations in North America and parts of Western Europe will already have ICEs in use, while organizations in some other regions represent more net-new opportunities. High. Significant net-new growth opportunities will be limited in North America and parts of Western Europe. Opportunities will be found in maintenance and upgrade revenue, and in integrating ICEs with other collaborative and business applications and infrastructure. ###$$ Competition In mature IT markets, most sales wins will come at the expense of the competition rather than from entirely new opportunities. Moderate. The impact of new products will be primarily to shake up some existing ICE deployments, looking to lower costs and reduce administration time and effort. Regional products will address some customers' needs better than will other ICE products. ###$$ Operating environments Organizations exploring alternative operating environments promising lower costs and greater flexibility will look to Linux to replace Unix, NetWare, and, in some cases, Windows. Low. The availability of ICE on Linux from vendors including IBM, Novell, and Oracle (essentially everyone but Microsoft) will encourage upgrades to new versions supporting Linux and even replace some vendors' ICE products, but the impact overall on revenue will be limited. ####$ Legend: #$$$$ very low, ##$$$ low, ###$$ moderate, ####$ high, ##### very high 8 # IDC

11 Market Context The latest ICE forecast presented here differs in several ways from the one that IDC published last year in Worldwide Integrated Collaborative Environments Forecast: Finding Opportunities in Cracks in the Ceiling of the ICE Market (IDC #33278, April 2005). See Table 4 and Figures 5 and 6 for details on the changes between the forecasts. The key differences are as follows:! After we finalized the 2004 vendor revenues and overall ICE market size for Worldwide Integrated Collaborative Environments 2004 Vendor Shares: Warm Spots Found on the Expanse of ICE (IDC #33604, June 2005), we realized that our leading forecast assumption that key markets such as North America and Western Europe were so heavily saturated with ICE that there were very limited opportunities for selling the ICE licenses needed for revenue growth was incorrect as applied to the overall market. While tier 2 and 3 ICE vendors saw small increases or declines in the past two years, the top 2 vendors that represented 92% of overall market revenue in 2005 (up from 90% in 2004) were experiencing significant growth. Microsoft experienced double-digit growth for each of the past two years, and IBM experienced double-digit growth in the past year and single-digit growth in the year before that. What this points to is the ability of mainly the top 2 ICE vendors to grow their ICE revenue by convincing existing and new customers to pay for maintenance and to buy licenses for underserved user bases such as small branch worksites or small businesses. In addition, competitive wins will continue to generate switching costs that include license fees paid to the winner. Accordingly, we have adjusted the ICE market growth forecast to reflect single-digit increases, rather than single-digit declines, through the forecast period.! The 2004 and 2005 base years have been adjusted to reflect the latest available information used as the basis for IDC's vendor revenue estimates. TABLE 4 Worldwide Integrated Collaborative Environments Revenue, : Comparison of April 2005 and July 2006 Forecasts ($M) July 2006 forecast 1,877 2,108 2,256 2,389 2,489 2,570 2,634 Growth (%) April 2005 forecast 1,856 1,830 1,796 1,751 1,706 1,683 NA Growth (%) NA 2006 IDC #

12 TABLE 4 Worldwide Integrated Collaborative Environments Revenue, : Comparison of April 2005 and July 2006 Forecasts ($M) Note: The previous forecast was published in Worldwide Integrated Collaborative Environments Forecast: Finding Opportunities in Cracks in the Ceiling of the ICE Market (IDC #33278, April 2005). FIGURE 5 Worldwide Integrated Collaborative Environments Revenue, : Comparison of April 2005 and July 2006 Forecasts ($B) July 2006 forecast April 2005 forecast 10 # IDC

13 FIGURE 6 Worldwide Integrated Collaborative Environments Revenue Growth, : Comparison of April 2005 and July 2006 Forecasts (%) July 2006 forecast April 2005 forecast IDC Leadership Grids The IDC Leadership Grid presents our view of the relative market positioning of ICE vendors (see Figures 7A 7C) based on our analysis of each vendor after considering a range of criteria relating to vendor strengths, challenges, and differentiators that determine current market opportunity alignment and ability to gain share in the future. For a detailed description of the IDC Leadership Grid methodology, see the Learn More section IDC #

14 FIGURE 7A IDC Leadership Grid: Worldwide Integrated Collaborative Environments Market, 2006 Low Ability to Gain Share High Fujitsu Ltd. Hitachi Ltd. Oracle HandySoft NEC Novell IBM Microsoft Low Market Opportunity Alignment High Note: Vendors with 2005 ICE applications revenue of less than $5 million are excluded. 12 # IDC

15 FIGURE 7B IDC Leadership Grid of the Worldwide Integrated Collaborative Environments Market: Vendor Ratings for Market Opportunity Alignment (X-Axis) Attributes, 2006 Microsoft IBM Novell NEC HandySoft Hitachi Ltd. Fujitsu Ltd. Oracle (Score) Ability to set industry standards Market share Potential for market dominance Potential for place or show Product and service breadth Notes: The scale is 1 = lowest and 10 = highest. Vendors with 2005 ICE applications revenue of less than $5 million are excluded IDC #

16 FIGURE 7C IDC Leadership Grid of the Worldwide Integrated Collaborative Environments Market: Vendor Ratings for Ability to Gain Share (Y-Axis) Attributes, 2006 Microsoft IBM Novell NEC HandySoft Hitachi Ltd. Fujitsu Ltd. Oracle (Score) Third-party applications Service provider partnerships Global presence Mobile and wireless support Multiplatform support Integration with other applications and infrastructure Notes: The scale is 1 = lowest and 10 = highest. Vendors with 2005 ICE applications revenue of less than $5 million are excluded. 14 # IDC

17 ESSENTIAL GUIDANCE To take advantage of the significant market opportunities for vendors and to maximize the cost savings and collaboration benefits for IT and users, ICE vendors should consider the following advice:! Maintain the loyalties of both IT staff and line-of-business users at existing customers by keeping the ICE fresh with advances in user interfaces and mobility support and with minimal cost and effort for handling upgrades to avoid giving customers excuses to delay upgrades. The key to keeping IT happy is making software run reliably with minimal intervention. Preventing rather than just responding to problems would help. How to do this? First, automate the process of downloading and applying maintenance patches. Second, monitor systems in real time so that problems can be caught as they emerge and before they have a chance to cause systems to crash.! Attract new customers, such as smaller organizations, by minimizing the efforts needed to manage ICE servers and clients with the help of self-managing server software, managed appliances, and hosted services available for customers. For ICEs to continue to expand, vendors need to offer the right packaging and delivery method to match the needs of smaller organizations. Merely offering a repackaging of solutions designed for larger enterprises won't do.! Provide solutions that minimize the effort and customization required to integrate ICE with team workspaces and real-time messaging and conferencing, as well as CRM, ERP, and other business applications, to enable business users to more easily find, access, analyze, and act upon all of the latest and relevant information. While collaboration is increasingly recognized as being critical to the work environment, the notion of having to go off and collaborate in a siloed application is being recognized as inefficient and outdated. What workers engaged in business activities need are the tools and information to get work done. Some of those activities may start out involving information and business workflows in enterprise applications, while others may be initiated with an or meeting invitation. Products that will help customers create intelligent, adaptive, activity/role-based workplaces that let users think and work both inside and outside the collaboration box include Duet for Microsoft Office and SAP and the IBM Lotus Notes Suite for SAP Solutions. LEARN MORE Related Research! Worldwide Unified Messaging Applications for Enterprises Forecast and 2005 Vendor Shares: The Road to Unified Communications (IDC #202525, July 2006)! Microsoft and SAP Unveil Duet and Invite Information Workers to Hum Along (IDC #201702, May 2006) 2006 IDC #

18 ! Google Calendar: A Step Toward an Online Collaboration Suite? (IDC #201650, May 2006)! Azaleos Offers "No Worries" Managed Solution for Microsoft Exchange (IDC #201034, March 2006)! Worldwide Messaging Applications Forecast: A First Look at Key Trends and 2005 Vendor Performance (IDC #200956, March 2006)! IBM Software Group: Trends, 2006 Expectations, and Customer Recommendations (IDC #34926, March 2006)! IDC's Software Taxonomy, 2006 (IDC #34863, February 2006)! Top 10 Predictions for 2006: Applications (IDC #34800, January 2006)! Google or IBM: Which One Really Should Keep Microsoft Execs Up at Night? (IDC #34749, January 2006)! Worldwide Usage Forecast: 's Future Depends on Keeping Its Value High and Its Cost Low (IDC #34504, December 2005)! Worldwide Unified Messaging Applications Forecast and 2004 Vendor Analysis: From Incremental to Innovative Unified Messaging (IDC #34420, November 2005)! The Domino Effect: Lotus Drives IBM's Strong Software Performance in 2Q05 (IDC #33813, July 2005)! Worldwide Integrated Collaborative Environments 2004 Vendor Shares: Warm Spots Found on the Expanse of ICE (IDC #33604, June 2005)! Worldwide Integrated Collaborative Environments Forecast: Finding Opportunities in Cracks in the Ceiling of the ICE Market (IDC #33278, April 2005) Methodology for Data Collection and Analysis The market forecast and analysis methodology incorporates information from five different but interrelated sources, as follows:! Reported and observed trends and financial activity. This study incorporates reported and observed trends and financial activity, including reported revenue data for public companies trading on North American stock exchanges.! IDC's Software Census interviews. IDC interviews all significant market participants to determine product revenue, revenue demographics, pricing, and other relevant information. 16 # IDC

19 ! Product briefings, press releases, and other publicly available information. IDC's software analysts around the world meet with hundreds of software vendors each year. These briefings provide an opportunity to review current and future business and product strategies, revenue, shipments, customer bases, target markets, and other key product and competitive information.! Vendor financial statements and related filings. Although many software vendors are privately held and choose to limit financial disclosures, information from publicly held companies provides a significant benchmark for assessing informal market estimates from private companies. IDC also builds detailed information related to private companies through in-depth analyst relationships and maintains an extensive library of financial and corporate information focused on the IT industry. We further maintain detailed revenue by product area model on more than 1,000 worldwide vendors.! IDC demand-side research. This includes thousands of interviews with business users of software solutions annually and provides a powerful fifth perspective for assessing competitive performance and market dynamics. IDC's user strategy databases offer a compelling and consistent time-series view of industry trends and developments. Direct conversations with technology buyers provide an invaluable complement to the broader survey-based results. Ultimately, the data presented in this study represents IDC's best estimates based on the above data sources as well as reported and observed activity by vendors and further modeling of data that we believe to be true to fill in any information gaps. The IDC Software Research Group (SRG) market sizing and forecasts are presented in terms of "packaged software revenue." Packaged software is defined as programs or codesets of any type commercially available through sale, lease, or rental, or as a service. Packaged software revenue typically includes fees for initial and continued right-to-use packaged software licenses. These fees may include, as part of the license contract, access to product support and/or other services that are inseparable from the right-to-use license fee structure, or this support may be priced separately as software maintenance. Upgrades may be included in the continuing right of use or may be priced separately. Packaged software revenue excludes service revenue derived from training, consulting, and systems integration that is separate (or unbundled) from the right-touse license but includes the implicit value of software included in a service that offers software functionality by a different pricing scheme (e.g., the implicit or stated value of software included in an application service provider's [ASP's] or other hosted software arrangement). It is the total packaged software revenue that is further allocated to markets, geographic areas, and operating environments. IDC's industry analysts have been measuring and forecasting IT markets for more than 40 years. IDC's software industry analysts have been delivering analysis and prognostications for packaged software markets for more than 25 years IDC #

20 In addition, please note the following:! Because revenue relating to consulting, training, management, hosting, and other professional services is not included, IDC's estimates reported here may not match vendor-reported financials, which may present and combine revenue differently.! Revenue as used here represents money in U.S. dollars received by companies for the aforementioned products.! All numbers in this document may not be exact due to rounding.! For more information on IDC's software definitions and methodology, see IDC's Software Taxonomy, 2006 (IDC #34863, February 2006). Methodology for the IDC Leadership Grid The IDC Leadership Grid is a tool that graphically depicts the leadership potential of various vendors by assessing two major competitive factors with specific inputs:! Market opportunity alignment. This term defines a vendor's ability to meet current market demands. Factors evaluated include: % Ability to set industry standards % Market share (revenue, customers, and users) % Potential for market dominance (ranking first) % Potential for place or show (ranking second or third) % Product and service breadth (across and beyond unified messaging applications)! Ability to gain share. This term defines a vendor's ability to gain market share in the future. Factors evaluated include: % Third-party applications (document management, workflow, unified messaging, antivirus, antispam, archiving, CRM, SFA, HR, and so on) % Service provider partnerships (hosted, managed, and professional services) % Global presence (sales and support offices, customers, and resellers) % Mobile and wireless support (handheld and telephone device access) % Multiplatform support (server, desktop, and handheld operating environments) % Integration with other applications and infrastructure (enterprise instant messaging and presence, team workspaces, CRM, SFA, ERP, and so on) 18 # IDC

21 Each criterion is given a particular weighting determined by IDC to represent its importance in relation to the other criteria. IDC selects the vendors to rate based on current market share, mindshare (name recognition and familiarity among customers, prospects, and industry observers), and customers (number and diversity). Other companies for which information is not available or whose market presence and opportunity are limited are not selected due to the limited value and accuracy of any ratings that would be done for them. For each vendor, IDC rates each input on a scale of 1 10, with 1 being the lowest rating and 10 being the highest. The average scores for the market opportunity alignment and ability to gain share inputs for each vendor are then plotted on the x- axis and the y-axis, respectively, of the IDC Leadership Grid. Vendor placement in the four quadrants of the IDC Leadership Grid should be understood as follows:! Upper-right quadrant. This is most desirable for vendors that are pursuing maximum revenue and the broadest market reach. It represents very successful past performance and points to a promising future.! Upper-left quadrant. This is desirable for vendors focused on becoming leaders in specific markets. It represents slightly to moderately successful past performance and points to a promising future.! Lower-right quadrant. This is somewhat less desirable for vendors. Although it reflects very successful past performance, it points to a less promising future unless changes are made.! Lower-left quadrant. This is least desirable for vendors. It represents slightly to moderately successful past performance (possibly due to recent market entrance) and points to a less promising or an uncertain future. Copyright Notice This IDC research document was published as part of an IDC continuous intelligence service, providing written research, analyst interactions, telebriefings, and conferences. Visit to learn more about IDC subscription and consulting services. To view a list of IDC offices worldwide, visit Please contact the IDC Hotline at , ext (or ) or for information on applying the price of this document toward the purchase of an IDC service or for information on additional copies or Web rights. Copyright 2006 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved. Published Under Services: Collaborative Computing 2006 IDC #

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