Taxation and more representation? On fiscal policy, social mobility and democracy in Latin America
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1 Taxation and more representation? On fiscal policy, social mobility and democracy in Latin America Christian Daude y Ángel Melguizo Centro de Desarrollo de la OCDE XXIII Seminario Regional de Politica Fiscal CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Santiago de Chile, Enero 2011
2 Personal Income Tax in LAC vs. OECD, 2008 (% GDP) Income inequality pre/post taxes-transfers, 2000s (Gini coefficient) RDOM CHL PER ARG MEX BRA SPA FRA GER US Inequality before taxes and transfers Inequality after taxes and transfers Source: OECD Revenue Statistics and Latin American Revenue Statistics (forthcoming) 0 Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Source: OECD (2008) Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Poland Portugal Spain Sweden United Kingdom High inequality, low tax collection, and weak fiscal redistribution 2
3 Tax morale in Latin America and OECD countries ( Do you think cheating on taxes is justifiable? ) Never Justifiable Justifiable 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% OECD Latin America Is the social contract broken in Latin America? 3
4 Tax policy cannot be analyzed separately from expenditures Government (inter temporal) budget constraint Political economy: agents may be willing to pay higher taxes if they receive (perceived) more/better public services Main approaches Tax benefit analysis : How fiscal policy affects households incomes? e.g. OECD (2008) survey, and OECD (2010) Laboratory experiments (e.g. Konrad and Morath, 2010) Soft data analysis: How fiscal policy is perceived by Latin American citizens? An analysis based on Latinobarómetro 2007,
5 1 Main hypothesis 2 Empirical analysis Data Democracy Fiscal policy 3 Conclusions and policy implications 5
6 Policy questions Support for democracy and political preferences Fiscal legitimacy ( tax morale ) Desired level of taxation Demand for redistribution (state vs. market) 6
7 A brief literature review: Theory Social class: five quintiles (middle sectors II IV) ( ) Median voter model (Down, 1957) (?) Internalization of distortions (Meltzer and Richards, 1981) (?) Ideological domination, no coordination (Przeworski, 2007) (?) Other, surveyed in Alesina and Giuliano (2009): individual experience (Piketty, 1995), family and nation values Perspectives Of Upwards Mobility hypothesis, POUM ( ) ( ) Past mobility, and future mobility (Benabou and Ok, 2001) (?) Temporary effect (Hirschman, 1973) 7
8 A brief literature review: Theory Meritocracy ( ), as highlighted in Alesina and Angeletos (2005) Success depends on hard work rather than connections A poor person in my country can become rich working hard Life chances are independent of origin Perceived link tax/benefits (+) Satisfaction with democracy, perception of corruption, public services (health care, education and pensions) 8
9 A brief literature review: Empirical analysis for Latin America Torgler (2005): Lower tax morale due to the tax burden, but also to the lack of honesty, and corruption (LB98 and WVS) Gaviria (2007): High demand for redistribution and the weak support for market outcomes: pessimistic views on social justice and equality of opportunities, and past/expected mobility (LB96, 00) Marcel (2008): No belief in mobility, weak social contract (crime, job insecurity, and poor health care). But, strong beliefs in the value of effort and education, and in shared responsibility state individuals, backed by a willingness to pay more taxes (ECosociAL 2007) 9
10 1 Main hypothesis 2 Empirical analysis Data Democracy Fiscal policy 3 Conclusions and policy implications 10
11 Data Latinobarómetro, rounds 2007 and 2008 Annual public opinion survey Data from around 20 thousand interviews and 18 LAC countries Perceptions on social, economic and political issues, plus selfreported income Pros and cons vs. other databases (World Value Survey, Gallup): Availability, diffusion, previous research 11
12 Attitudes towards democracy Attitudes towards democracy (% support and satisfaction) Distribution of political preferences (0 extreme left, 1 extreme right) 80% Support for democracy Satisfaction with functioning of democracy 40.0% Q1 Q2 Q4 Q5 70% 35.0% 60% 30.0% 50% 25.0% 40% 30% cy n e u20.0% q F re 20% 15.0% 10% 10.0% 0% Perceived Income Quintile 5.0% 0.0% Left Right self reported preferences Middle sectors: main supporters of democracy, and politically moderate 12
13 Attitudes towards democracy: Support, satisfaction and political spectrum Dependent Variable (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Support for democracy Support for democracy Satisfaction with democracy Satisfaction with democracy Left Right Left Right Estimation Method Probit Probit Probit Probit Ordered Probit Ordered Probit Quintile (0.038)*** (0.038)*** (0.040)* (0.040)* (0.036)** (0.036)** Quintile (0.038)*** (0.039)*** (0.040)*** (0.041)*** (0.037)*** (0.037)*** Quintile (0.051)*** (0.053)*** (0.053)*** (0.055)*** (0.046)*** (0.048)*** Quintile (0.097)** (0.099)* (0.100)*** (0.102)*** (0.099)** (0.102)*** Perceived past mobility (0.009)** (0.009) (0.008)* Perceived future mobility (0.008) (0.008)* (0.007)*** Observations Pseudo R Additional controls: age, gender, education, religiosity, head of household Middle sectors: supporters plus moderate. Reinforced with mobility 13
14 Fiscal policy "Good Citizens pay their taxes" (percentage of respondents who agree) "Taxes are too high" (percentage of respondents who agree) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 25 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q "Tax evasion is never justified" (percentage of respondents who agree) Satisfaction with health services Satisfied Not satisfied No Access Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 14
15 Fiscal policy, tax morale: Do you think that good citizens should pay taxes? (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Satisfaction with democracy (0.02)*** (0.02)** Satisfaction with health care (0.02)** (0.03) Satisfaction with education Satisfaction with pension system (0.02)*** (0.03)** (0.02) (0.02) Past mobility (0.01)** (0.01)** (0.01)** Future mobility (0.01)** (0.01)** (0.01) Corruption (0.00)*** Observations Pseudo R PROBIT estimates. Additional controls age, gender, education, citizenship, religiosity, head of household, economic problems, income quintile (and constant) Good democracies and public services pay (+). No clear POUM 15
16 Fiscal policy, tax morale: Tax evasion is justified (2) (3) (4) (5) Satisfaction with democracy (0.025)*** (0.025)*** Past mobility (0.009) (0.009) Future mobility (0.008) (0.008) Corruption (0.000)*** (0.000)*** Observations Pseudo R PROBIT estimates Additional controls age, gender, education, citizenship, religiosity, head of household, economic problems, income quintile (and constant) No clear POUM, counterintuitive results on institutions 16
17 Fiscal policy, desired level of taxation: Do you think taxes are too high? (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) Satisfaction with democracy (0.029)*** (0.029)*** Satisfaction with health care (0.027)*** (0.031)** Satisfaction with education (0.027)*** (0.031)* Satisfaction with pension system Past mobility (0.026)*** (0.027) (0.008)*** (0.008)*** Future mobility (0.008)*** (0.008)** Observations Pseudo R PROBIT estimates Additional controls age, gender, education, citizenship, religiosity, head of household, economic problems, income quintile (and constant) No POUM. Democracy and good public services may allow higher taxes 17
18 Fiscal policy, desired level of taxation: Do you think taxes are too high? (1) (2) (3) (4) Satisfaction with democracy (0.030)*** (0.030)*** (0.030)*** (0.030)*** Satisfaction with health care (0.032) (0.032) (0.032) (0.032) Satisfaction with education (0.032)** (0.032)** (0.032)* (0.032)* Satisfaction with pension system (0.028) (0.028) (0.028) (0.028) Past mobility (0.009)*** (0.009)*** (0.009)*** (0.009)*** Future mobility (0.008)** (0.008)** (0.008)** (0.008)** Success depends on hard work rather than connections (0.028)*** (0.028)*** A poor person in my country can become rich if she works (0.030)* (0.030) Life chances are independent of origin (0.029)*** (0.029)*** Observations Pseudo R PROBIT estimates. Additional controls age, gender, education, citizenship, religiosity, head of household, economic problems, income quintile (and constant) meritocracy reinforces it: lowers the perception of bearing too heavy taxes 18
19 Fiscal policy, demand for redistribution: state/market Dependent Variable (1) (2) (3) (4) State should intervene in health State should intervene in education State should intervene in pension Market should solve all problems Left Right (0.005)*** (0.005)*** (0.005)*** (0.005) Distribution of income is fair (0.030)*** (0.030)*** (0.031)*** Satisfaction with health care (0.025)*** Satisfaction with education (0.025)*** Satisfaction with pension system (0.024)*** Past mobility (0.007)* (0.007) (0.007) (0.009) Future mobility (0.007) (0.007) (0.007)*** (0.008)** Opportunities independent of origin (0.026)* (0.026)*** (0.026)*** A poor person can become rich (0.026)*** (0.027)** (0.027) Corruption (0.000)*** Observations Pseudo R PROBIT estimates. Additional controls age, gender, education, citizenship, religiosity, head of household, economic problems, income quintile (and constant) No clear proxy, and no clear results (e.g. political preferences) 19
20 1 Main hypothesis 2 Empirical analysis Data Democracy Fiscal policy 3 Conclusions and policy implications 20
21 Conclusions Social class doesn t play a key role in taxation (once controlled for other factors) Perspectives of upwards mobility hypothesis is not confirmed People who perceive a higher past mobility, and forecast a higher future mobility agree to pay (more) taxes Meritocracy pays: impacts positively Those who think perceive living in a meritocracy also think that taxes are not too high Perceived link tax/benefits are key. From generic (corruption) to specific (health and education) Education (years of) impacts positively 21
22 Policy implications Need to build better institutions (corruption, meritocracy) Potential demand for a stronger social contact (no POUM) Potential role of the middle sectors (Support of democracy, and politically moderate) Double dividends from better public services More educated citizens support stronger fiscal policy Better services (education and health) may trigger a virtuous circle 22
23 Taxation and more representation? On fiscal policy, social mobility and democracy in Latin America Christian Daude y Ángel Melguizo Centro de Desarrollo de la OCDE XXIII Seminario Regional de PolItica Fiscal CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Santiago de Chile, Enero 2011
24 Annex Results at a glance Legitimacy Tax are too high More redistribution Education + - +/- Middle sectors +/+ -/- -/- Public services (educ., health) POUM +/+ - - Meritocracy n.a. - + PROBIT modeling. Latinobarómetro 2007 and All regressions include country, ethnicity, marital status and employment status Bold: significant at 5 per cent (at least) 24
25 Annex Net payers of the personal income tax (Percentage of households with labour income) MEX CRI CHL ARG URU PER COL Source: OECD (2010) 25
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